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MacRumors
Nov 25, 2003, 01:27 PM
An unconfirmed report suggests that we may see a low-end/cheaper 5GB iPod introduced from Apple as early as the November 28th, 2003 In-Store Apple event (http://www.macrumors.com/pages/2003/11/20031120221109.shtml).

It has already been revealed that the event will bring 10% discounts on current iPods and music-related purchases.

Steve Jobs has previously expressed interest in creating a cheaper iPod (http://www.macrumors.com/pages/2003/10/20031019030926.shtml), but claimed "We just don't know how to do it right now.".



mkaake
Nov 25, 2003, 01:28 PM
i would gobble that up.

wait. i wouldn't. i'm completely broke.

but if i wasn't, i'd jump...

matt

Ambrose Chapel
Nov 25, 2003, 01:29 PM
sounds good to me. the average user (i assume) doesn't really need more than 5 gigs, especially if encoding with AAC. price at <200 and i think it's a winner

dguisinger
Nov 25, 2003, 01:30 PM
Don't know how to do it? My @$$. Everyone knows they could build in a 512MB flash memory chip in a low-end model, and sell for a lot less. I owned two different flash mp3 players, I loved them. I know there are people in this forum who will chew me out because I want to see a flash iPod at the low-end. But you know what, I dont care. I don't have 10GB of music....infact I don't have 5GB of music. I may have 1GB...possibly, but I dont listen to more than 20 songs out of all that, plus another 20 I have actually bought from the iTunes store since it came out.
40 songs...that fits easily in a 512MB footprint. No need to spend hundreds on a 5/10GB iPod.

iMax531
Nov 25, 2003, 01:31 PM
but unlikely...

If there had been that intention, It never would have been axed in the first place. Blus, it is very un-Jobsian to introduce anything with lower specs, or to bring back an old product.

That said, I think a new 5gb iPod would be awesome, especially if it was priced at, say 200... that brings it down to almost an impulse buy for a lot of people, where as 400 or 500 is expensive for such a toy.

I ope it happens, but I just don't see it.

macMaestro
Nov 25, 2003, 01:35 PM
SWEET! :cool:

yoman
Nov 25, 2003, 01:39 PM
That is after I have convinced my wife of the iPod's infinite merits :)

Bunzi2k4
Nov 25, 2003, 01:47 PM
that's cool... my cousin's been looking for mp3 players... that might not be a bad idea to get a cheap ipod...

machan
Nov 25, 2003, 01:49 PM
this 5gig ipod issue came up last week, but i still think i read that the company that makes the drives no longer makes them in 5gig size. maybe apple found a different supplier, but i kind of doubt it.

sethypoo
Nov 25, 2003, 01:56 PM
For what you get, the 10 GB is great. I don't like the idea of a 5 GB.....maybe they could just give away iTMS gift certificates with the iPods? I don't see why they haven't already done this.:rolleyes:

nagromme
Nov 25, 2003, 02:02 PM
There are all kinds of listeners out there... I have between 1 and 2 GB of music, and I have friends with less who DO use iTunes to play it all. Even a TWO GB model would have a niche.

And Apple does offer lower models all the time. The iBook line, the eMac, the 12" PowerBook... a smaller iPod would be a much less drastic step down than those.

The catch would be that supposedly a smaller HD isn't really cheaper to make--and so why bother.

yellow
Nov 25, 2003, 02:02 PM
I got a 5G iPod last Christmas and use it constantly (read: daily in car, daily walking, daily riding).. At the time I thought there would be no reason that I would want to have more than 800 songs. But I find myself constantly having to erase songs to make room on there. If you, the thread reader, fancy yourself a fickle music lover (today I feel like a little punk, tomorrow I might want a little funk, etc,..), consider spending the $$ for a 10G iPod.

1macker1
Nov 25, 2003, 02:32 PM
I love music, but i have no need for a 10G iPods. I download about 5 songs a week from the iTMS, and have burned all the CD's that i owned into iTunes. And still I only have 2G's of music. The 5G iPod will be perfect for me, and people like me. Just because you don't have 3,000 songs, doesn't mean your not a music lover. I'd buy the 5G iPod that same day if they were to release one!

bbarnhart
Nov 25, 2003, 02:38 PM
A 5 gig or less would be good for young kids. I'd buy one for my child, but i would have to be around 150 and I'm not sure they could sell it that cheap. My 5yr daughter currently has a $20 portable cd player that she listens in the car. It eats batteries.

I might look into one of those flash memory models.

FlamDrag
Nov 25, 2003, 02:41 PM
I only hope that this isn't true just for my wife's sake. This would instantly become all she would hear about until Christmas. It could completely ruin our marriage.

I have PLENTY of use for the 40 GB model but I'm holding out for a few more features until I try to sell her on a $500 toy. Namely I want one cable like this:

iPod >>> Cable >>> Digital Camera

Not an extra card reader, not anything else. Just a cable to a digital camera. Simple, easy and no batteries needed.

5GB around would be a nice stopgap until that happens.

dongmin
Nov 25, 2003, 02:46 PM
Originally posted by dguisinger
Don't know how to do it? My @$$. Everyone knows they could build in a 512MB flash memory chip in a low-end model, and sell for a lot less. I owned two different flash mp3 players, I loved them. I know there are people in this forum who will chew me out because I want to see a flash iPod at the low-end. But you know what, I dont care. I don't have 10GB of music....infact I don't have 5GB of music. I may have 1GB...possibly, but I dont listen to more than 20 songs out of all that, plus another 20 I have actually bought from the iTunes store since it came out.
40 songs...that fits easily in a 512MB footprint. No need to spend hundreds on a 5/10GB iPod. Your music collection consists of 40 songs? Why bother with an iPod? Or even iTunes? A single minidisc will satisfy your music needs.

jxyama
Nov 25, 2003, 02:49 PM
Originally posted by FlamDrag
Namely I want one cable like this:

iPod >>> Cable >>> Digital Camera

Not an extra card reader, not anything else. Just a cable to a digital camera. Simple, easy and no batteries needed.


probably won't happen unless camera cables become standardized. right now, it's camera -> cable -> computer. the second arrow is a standardized port (USB) but the first arrow can be mini-USB or other proprietary port...

back to topic:
not sure how much apple would charge for a 5GB iPod. $200? $150? i can't see it below $150... but $200 would be a bit much, i'd think. of course, it wouldn't come with a dock, etc.

i remember seeing some compact flash card readers that can also read some "microdrives." those drives were lower in capacity (1 to 2 GB range) and were more expensive, but replaceable... could those be used once the price comes down? (given the abundance in alternative storages, the price must come down or the format would become obsolete, no?)

dongmin
Nov 25, 2003, 02:56 PM
Originally posted by FlamDrag
iPod >>> Cable >>> Digital Camera
I'm not sure it's as simple as that. You're asking the ipod to recognize your camera via a USB-to-firewire adapter. I don't think you can do this without custom drivers written into the iPod OS for each camera model.

As clumsy as it seems, a card-reader is the only way of insuring universal compatibility. It'd be nice if the card-reader could draw power from the iPod but I don't know if it's possible.

Now if your camera was a firewire camera, it could be a different story.

FlamDrag
Nov 25, 2003, 03:01 PM
To be clear, I don't expect Apple to make my magic cable. I expect Griffin or another to make them because of the proprietary issues. It doesn't seem that it should be super-difficult to do if you simply choose the top 4 or 5 brands of consumer level + a couple of Digital SLR brands.

radhak
Nov 25, 2003, 03:11 PM
Originally posted by dguisinger
Don't know how to do it? My @$$. Everyone knows they could build in a 512MB flash memory chip in a low-end model, and sell for a lot less. I owned two different flash mp3 players, I loved them. I know there are people in this forum who will chew me out because I want to see a flash iPod at the low-end. But you know what, I dont care. I don't have 10GB of music....infact I don't have 5GB of music. I may have 1GB...possibly, but I dont listen to more than 20 songs out of all that, plus another 20 I have actually bought from the iTunes store since it came out.
40 songs...that fits easily in a 512MB footprint. No need to spend hundreds on a 5/10GB iPod.

I am sure that by "don't know how" he did not mean just the media on which the music resides. yes, the memory itself is pretty cheap, but then, what do you think makes the iPod what it is? not just the 'hard disk'; most probably the hard-disk is the cheapest component there. the rest of the stuff (the hardware, and more importantly, the quality control) would be the costly stuff, and it would have to be the same quality whatever be the storage size. so it might be easier to come up with a larger storage for a marginally higher cost than vice-versa.

of course, seeing that the margin of profit on the iPods is pretty high, Apple might as well come out with a 'smaller' iPod with a lower price tag, where they would just be content with a lower margin for the sake of higher volume.

dongmin
Nov 25, 2003, 03:13 PM
Originally posted by jxyama
probably won't happen unless camera cables become standardized. right now, it's camera -> cable -> computer. the second arrow is a standardized port (USB) but the first arrow can be mini-USB or other proprietary port...

back to topic:
not sure how much apple would charge for a 5GB iPod. $200? $150? i can't see it below $150... but $200 would be a bit much, i'd think. of course, it wouldn't come with a dock, etc.

i remember seeing some compact flash card readers that can also read some "microdrives." those drives were lower in capacity (1 to 2 GB range) and were more expensive, but replaceable... could those be used once the price comes down? (given the abundance in alternative storages, the price must come down or the format would become obsolete, no?) A 1gb microdrive costs $175-200 right now. I'm not sure but a 1.8" 5GB pc card drive goes for about $200 now (maybe half that for OEM?). The 1.8" drives are falling in prices a lot faster than the microdrives. The microdrives have the advantage of being smaller and consuming less power. But for price/capacity, the 1.8" drives are the way to go. What I'd like to see is an iPod with upgradable HD. You can start with a 5GB model but as your music collection grows, you can swap in a 10GB or bigger drive. Of course, Apple would never do this.

The 'next frontier' is 1" HDs. I would love to see one of these built into a cell phone. The battery life would be a major problem, but how cool would it be to have your entire music collection in your phone?!

dguisinger
Nov 25, 2003, 03:24 PM
Originally posted by radhak
I am sure that by "don't know how" he did not mean just the media on which the music resides. yes, the memory itself is pretty cheap, but then, what do you think makes the iPod what it is? not just the 'hard disk'; most probably the hard-disk is the cheapest component there. the rest of the stuff (the hardware, and more importantly, the quality control) would be the costly stuff, and it would have to be the same quality whatever be the storage size. so it might be easier to come up with a larger storage for a marginally higher cost than vice-versa.

of course, seeing that the margin of profit on the iPods is pretty high, Apple might as well come out with a 'smaller' iPod with a lower price tag, where they would just be content with a lower margin for the sake of higher volume.

Actually the Hard Drive probably costs Apple around $100. The electronics probably cost them around $15-$20 in the quantity they buy, and LCD around $30, and the battery around $20-30. You can see the hard drive is about 1/3 of the cost of the iPod. Smaller hard drives do not mean lower costs. Going from 10GB to 5GB doesn't save a nickel. They cost the same to produce. Apple may have to pay more for the 10GB, but there is a point in where quality hard drives that are brand new can cost no less than a higher end model. I am sure Apple could do a 512MB flash iPod for under $150, and sell a ton of them, and it would compliment the rest of their line nicely. BTW, these prices are based on common pricing for electronics in the industry, check a suppliers catalog on LCD or battery pricing, or call them for quantities approaching hundreds of thousands, and you will find the price falls very quickly.

Lancetx
Nov 25, 2003, 03:35 PM
---

the_mole1314
Nov 25, 2003, 03:42 PM
a.) Ever heard of something called 'bulk purchase' guys?

b.) Flash is dead

c.) Just because they introduce a new 5gig iPod dosn't mean they are backing down on their ideas of releasing an old product. If they released the old ones, then yes, but who says it'll be that?

MongoTheGeek
Nov 25, 2003, 03:44 PM
Originally posted by dongmin
What I'd like to see is an iPod with upgradable HD. You can start with a 5GB model but as your music collection grows, you can swap in a 10GB or bigger drive. Of course, Apple would never do this.

Might as well sell swappable disks and people could have collections of HDs for their iPods.

Lancetx
Nov 25, 2003, 03:45 PM
Originally posted by dguisinger
Actually the Hard Drive probably costs Apple around $100. The electronics probably cost them around $15-$20 in the quantity they buy, and LCD around $30, and the battery around $20-30. You can see the hard drive is about 1/3 of the cost of the iPod. Smaller hard drives do not mean lower costs. Going from 10GB to 5GB doesn't save a nickel. They cost the same to produce. Apple may have to pay more for the 10GB, but there is a point in where quality hard drives that are brand new can cost no less than a higher end model. I am sure Apple could do a 512MB flash iPod for under $150, and sell a ton of them, and it would compliment the rest of their line nicely. BTW, these prices are based on common pricing for electronics in the industry, check a suppliers catalog on LCD or battery pricing, or call them for quantities approaching hundreds of thousands, and you will find the price falls very quickly.

That's been my point all along and it's why we'll never see another HD based iPod less than 10GB. It would make no sense whatsoever to introduce a 5GB model now, and I can't help but laugh when people say they should put out a 5GB model for $100 less than the 10GB one is because the cost to Apple would be virtually the same.

1macker1
Nov 25, 2003, 03:50 PM
Apple isn't paying retail value for any of the parts they use in any of their products, so those numbers are off. I'm sure they save tons just by buying in large volumes.

Tulse
Nov 25, 2003, 03:53 PM
A motivation for cheaper iPods might be the looming competition for iTMS. While the iTMS exists primarily to sell iPods, the relationship is actually circular -- without enough iPods, the iTMS will whither. Apple wants to push FairPlay AAC over WMA, and to do that it needs to get a bunch of iPods out there. It might be willing to do something special for this particular holiday season in order to drive iPod sales. That might be price drops, or even a new model. Sure, a 5Gig might not be actually cheaper to produce, but that's not the point -- it might be worth Apple cutting its margins on a bottom-end iPod to establish ACC and iTMS as the de facto standard, so it can continue to sell the high margin models.

I think this Christmas is a unique opportunity for Apple -- next year, everyone, including Microsoft, will have a music store. Apple would be wise to sacrifice margin for marketshare in this arena, at least for this holiday.

Doctor Q
Nov 25, 2003, 03:55 PM
Are the rumors reporting the alleged price of this alleged product?

agentmouthwash
Nov 25, 2003, 04:11 PM
I've been saying this on these boards for months! People don't realize that
(1) The 10 GB ipod is too much money for most people.
(2) The 10 GB ipod is too large for most people's needs.

I seriously know 4 people that would buy a 5GB ipod for $200, but since one doesn't exist, they are going to buy cheap Rio MP3 players. 3 of these people are PC users- a Market that Apple wants to take.

Apple is going to face major competition amongst Digital Music Players, and if ithey want to stay on top, they have to compete.

BRING ON THE CHEAPER IPOD!!!

arnette
Nov 25, 2003, 04:13 PM
Originally posted by the_mole1314
b.) Flash is dead



Dear Lord! I almost went into convulsions when I read that! I believe you are sadly mistaken.

Flash is just beginning to take off. Once the prices fall... lookout!

AirUncleP
Nov 25, 2003, 04:17 PM
Good Point Tulse

I think this Christmas is a unique opportunity for Apple -- next year, everyone, including Microsoft, will have a music store. Apple would be wise to sacrifice margin for marketshare in this arena, at least for this holiday.

Some very big players (msft and Wal-mart) are going to enter the music download biz soon so Apple needs to get as much market share as possible. Most people stay with what they start with.

Get them now Apple or you might not have another chance.

SiliconAddict
Nov 25, 2003, 04:22 PM
Originally posted by the_mole1314


b.) Flash is dead



That’s a pretty bold statement considering the music player industry is built on flash players. Go into a Best Buy, CompUSA, Circuit City and see how many flash players there are compared to hard drive devices. 70% That is the % of players that aren't iPods. And a good portion of them are CF/SD/MM/MS players.

Also tell that to people who jog, do aerobics, and generally work out. Moving parts aren't your friend when it comes to a workout. Also hard drives aren't particularly happy with cold weather. Funny how hard drive failures seem to spike in my office right around the dead of winter. Try leaving your iPod in a car when its 15* out and start it up. Do that a few times while leaving it out in the baking sun as well. Flash was designed to be rugged. The iPod is not.

CF, SD have their place just as hard drive based units have their place. There are now SD cards, which are about the size of a quarter, that have just now hit the 1GB barrier for these chips. 2GB is expected next Summer. For now the price of such chips is out of reach but in 12-18 months?

If they do released a 5GB iPod they better have a huge stock available. If they have it out before the holiday season they better have a ginormous stock because these suckers will FLY off the shelves.

I hope Apple is learning something here. Forget if you build it they will come. More like if you make it cheap they will maul you for it.

itsbetteronamac
Nov 25, 2003, 04:41 PM
I would buy a 5gb ipod is all I had was less than 5gigs of music. But I havn't even had my mac with itunes for a year and I already have 5.5 gigs, ad growing. So, I am hoping to get a nice 20gb ipod for x-mas. I am only a teenager, but I love music more than anyone I know. I feel the ipod is the perect gift for any music lover, so if someone loves music and just happens to have a small collection, bring ont eh 5gb.

the_mole1314
Nov 25, 2003, 05:09 PM
The reason I said flash is dead is based on stuff I've heard and my own opinions. Simply put, people don't like them. It's simple as that. Flash based players are selling so well because they are cheap, if a cheap iPod comes out without SD, Compact, or other drives, it will destroy the market.

Now, the USB drive market is alive, ditto for those players that use that system.

jxyama
Nov 25, 2003, 05:19 PM
Originally posted by the_mole1314
The reason I said flash is dead is based on stuff I've heard and my own opinions. Simply put, people don't like them. It's simple as that. Flash based players are selling so well because they are cheap, if a cheap iPod comes out without SD, Compact, or other drives, it will destroy the market.

Now, the USB drive market is alive, ditto for those players that use that system.

how can something that's selling well (no matter the reason) be "dead"? you said it yourself, "flash based players are selling so well." one aspect of flash is that it's cheap. it's not some magical thing happening in the market that allows flash based players to be cheaper. being cheap is one property of flash...

perhaps you meant "flash won't be able to compete against a 5 GB iPod cheaply priced." that i can understand.

aren't those usb drives based on flash memory...?

yosoyjay
Nov 25, 2003, 05:27 PM
Well, I think a cheaper 5 gig iPod would be terrific.

There is no way in hell it would hold all my music, but neither would a 40 gig iPod. Given that, I would put a collection of my favorite music on the iPod. A 5 gig iPod would hold say... 1000 songs?
That's pretty good.

The only big drawback is having to encode new stuff I would want to add to the iPod.

ITR 81
Nov 25, 2003, 05:36 PM
There is someone on here that does testing for iRiver the new 1-2GB versions and has said flash is still way behind having the speeds that are in the iPod.

Flash is only going to take off in certain applications but I doubt it will in MP3 players as most companies are now going to HD design.

I've been saying for months Apple needs a 2-5GB iPod maybe with a new gen. interface. Why would Apple bring a lower price iPod back? Simply competition and they also see sells of 10GB iPods killing all other versions of the iPod sells in this holiday season.

Remember the iPod is no Mac and can be downgraded to sell more because the only big difference would be storage size and price.

hmmmmmm
Nov 25, 2003, 05:41 PM
surely 10GB HD's have come down enough for the new CHEAPER iPod to actually be a 10GB version? (at a lower price)

and even if they were to bring out a 5GB version then i can't see it dropping no more than 50$ over the 10GB version. unless they really managed to cut a real good deal with a supplier.

dguisinger
Nov 25, 2003, 06:01 PM
Originally posted by 1macker1
Apple isn't paying retail value for any of the parts they use in any of their products, so those numbers are off. I'm sure they save tons just by buying in large volumes.

Actually, from work in the electronics business. Those prices are probably very close. There is still a certain cost to everything that Apple can't lower. The LCD, and batteries, chips, and PCB. Not to mention the HD.

I'll tell you this, without the HD, the iPod does not cost Apple $5. Nor $20. It likely costs Apple around $50-$80 to build an ipod complete with LCD and battery, and casing, before you add the hard drive.

LoopHoles
Nov 25, 2003, 06:03 PM
10 GB - 5 GB <> $100. no way.

this is a page 2 rumor because the chances of it coming true are very, very low IMO. apple would do better (for their bottom line) to come out with a compact flash iPod with a 1 GB compact flash card. the chances of that are even lower, i think.

however, it would delight most everyone, but competitors, to see current model iPods drop about $50 or more in price to $250, $350, and $450.

Steven1621
Nov 25, 2003, 06:06 PM
hmm i think the idea of a "bargain" ipod will devalue the product line. the ipod is the most prestigious player on the market and i feel that making a cheap model might make it rather "bourgeoisie" to a certain extent. while i certainly believe that more people with apple products is better, i also think that apple must do all it can to preserve the allure of the ipod, considering the number of similar players that are considerably cheaper (Dell).

dguisinger
Nov 25, 2003, 06:06 PM
Originally posted by hmmmmmm
surely 10GB HD's have come down enough for the new CHEAPER iPod to actually be a 10GB version? (at a lower price)

and even if they were to bring out a 5GB version then i can't see it dropping no more than 50$ over the 10GB version. unless they really managed to cut a real good deal with a supplier.

You miss the point. Hard drives are expensive to manufacture. Thats why IBM recently got out of the business. Why? Look at how much metal is in the drive. Look at how much presicion is needed in machining the heads and platters. This stuff is NOT cheap. A 5GB hard drive will sell the same as a 10GB drive....not because they are the same physically, but because you hit the bottom of what a manufacturer can take for the amount of time and materials to put it together. On the other hand, look at chips. Say you look at a 512MB chip and a 1GB chip. Funny thing there is, you see the reverse economics situation. The 1GB actually uses the same amount of material as the 512MB, because its probably built in a better process. The costs of silicon are the same, which end up being a few cents per chip after R&D is paid for. There is much more margin, and the they are able to continue seperation on pricing for a long time after its outlived its usefulness in the market

ITR 81
Nov 25, 2003, 06:07 PM
Apple doesn't want to go slower and thats what most folks say about flash drive based players they tend to be slower then HD based ones.

dguisinger
Nov 25, 2003, 06:13 PM
Originally posted by ITR 81
Apple doesn't want to go slower and thats what most folks say about flash drive based players they tend to be slower then HD based ones.

Umm, I had two different flash players. To make a note with everyone's slowness statements:

a) Flash is not too slow to play music. I just want to make it clear we are talking about a possible bandwidth problem on loading the music, not playback.

b) Flash is faster than a USB 1 interface, but slower than USB 2. However, I see very few problems with this, and for a good reason. So you buy a cheaper iPod....it takes you as long to upload 200 songs as someone else would 500. Oooh, big woop, if you were going for the smaller one you probably wouldnt have 500, or 1000 songs anyways.

I think this is ********* to say Flash is too slow.....the market is for the low-end, to stop competing players from grabbing market share....its not for the people with a brand new powermac G5 with FireWire 800 who need things to happen before they even finish clicking a button.

gotohamish
Nov 25, 2003, 06:13 PM
Originally posted by dongmin
I'm not sure it's as simple as that. You're asking the ipod to recognize your camera via a USB-to-firewire adapter. I don't think you can do this without custom drivers written into the iPod OS for each camera model.

As clumsy as it seems, a card-reader is the only way of insuring universal compatibility. It'd be nice if the card-reader could draw power from the iPod but I don't know if it's possible.

Now if your camera was a firewire camera, it could be a different story.

Not quite - drivers for "EVERY" camera would:

a) take up a lot of space on the iPod that could be used on music.

b) would immediately leave every camera released after the release.

wPod
Nov 25, 2003, 06:22 PM
wouldn't it make sense if apple came out with a cheaper drive? they have started the ipodrocks.com web site targeted at kids (to persuade their parents to get iPods for the holiday season) so wouldnt it help if the kids were begging for $150-$200 toys instead of instead of $300-$500. and heck, i might even buy one for my mom just so i can jump her into the 21st century . . . (now how can i rip all of her casset tapes(oh yeah and records) to aac?!!!)

rog
Nov 25, 2003, 06:41 PM
Well 5GB ipods were $149.99 earlier today at expercom. they were refurbs but still, I doubt they lost money selling them. They sold out in a matter of hours after being posted on dealmac.

I think $249 is probably the lowest Apple can go right now and make any profit. I agree the difference in cost to them between 5 and 10GB is probably a matter of $10 or less.

penguin
Nov 25, 2003, 06:54 PM
How about ePod.
Smaller and Yellow
Plays Flash Memory.
They can market it to sports people and people in rough e-nvironments.

Or maybe it is the same size as an iPod but they pack it with 4 cheap 256MB CF Cards. It could require a smaller battery and no reworking of the case. All in all cheaper.

penguin
Nov 25, 2003, 06:57 PM
Everyone who loves rumors gets overworked and over anticipates and wants to believe that apple will come out with something great.
I ahve been disappointed before (Except for the backlit keyboard that was cool)
Anyway my realistic prediction for all this fuss-----


rainbow colors.

You can see the adds with the green and red ones dancing around.


Of course this would be 100% a bad idea. The iPod in white only makes it such a signature item. Please Flash memory instead of colors.....

MarkCollette
Nov 25, 2003, 07:44 PM
How much power would it take to keep 1GB of RAM (not flash) holding its data? I'm just curious how feasible it would be to have a RAM based player, as opposed to a flash based player.

yoman
Nov 25, 2003, 08:33 PM
Originally posted by MarkCollette
How much power would it take to keep 1GB of RAM (not flash) holding its data? I'm just curious how feasible it would be to have a RAM based player, as opposed to a flash based player.

The only problem I see is that RAM in the 1-2GB range is quite expensive. Much more than HD. However it is interesting. I don't know anything about the powerconsumption though. Will have to look up or wait for one of our MacRumors buddies to inform us.

1macker1
Nov 25, 2003, 08:34 PM
I've had to make order from companies for different type of part. And when you order 100,000 instead of 100, the price drops drastically. I'm not sure this applies to apple, but I cant see why it wouldn't
Originally posted by dguisinger
Actually, from work in the electronics business. Those prices are probably very close. There is still a certain cost to everything that Apple can't lower. The LCD, and batteries, chips, and PCB. Not to mention the HD.

I'll tell you this, without the HD, the iPod does not cost Apple $5. Nor $20. It likely costs Apple around $50-$80 to build an ipod complete with LCD and battery, and casing, before you add the hard drive.

tgrundke
Nov 25, 2003, 08:37 PM
Price it at $149 and you've got a winner.

ITR 81
Nov 25, 2003, 08:48 PM
If it comes out it will probably priced at $199.

Though I'm sure some places will lower prices abit by 10-15 bucks.

Dippo
Nov 25, 2003, 09:00 PM
This is going to stay a rumor.

Apple might cut the prices of the current iPods but they aren't going to come out and rerelease an "out of date" product.

The cost difference between making a 5Gb and say a 10Gb iPod will only be the difference in cost of the Hard Drive, this probably won't be dramatic enough to warrant a lower price.

Stella
Nov 25, 2003, 09:59 PM
A flash version of the iPod would be a good idea.

As someone else pointed out - no iPod, no ITMS.

Therefore, Apple need as much market share as possible.

Not everyone can afford $250ish dollars for an existing iPod, but more people could afford, say, $150 for a 128Mb flash version.

However, SJ has already mentioned that he doesn't think price for the iPod is an issue - but cheaper would be nice.

Fukui
Nov 25, 2003, 10:56 PM
Originally posted by MarkCollette
How much power would it take to keep 1GB of RAM (not flash) holding its data? I'm just curious how feasible it would be to have a RAM based player, as opposed to a flash based player.
RAM is much faster than EPROM (flash) but more expensive, and requires (IIRC) more power to hold memory than EPROMs. EPROM/flash is slower than RAM, and is therefore cheaper and it can stay with no power IIRC.

jettredmont
Nov 26, 2003, 12:43 AM
Originally posted by gotohamish
Not quite - drivers for "EVERY" camera would:

a) take up a lot of space on the iPod that could be used on music.

b) would immediately leave every camera released after the release.

Folks, you don't have a driver for every camera. Prior to about two years ago, every camera had its own driver. Today the interface is standardized, and modern cameras all appear as a Mass Storage Device.

Supporting 90% of all current and most likely 100% of all future cameras would just mean supporting MSD.

bentmywookie
Nov 26, 2003, 01:55 AM
Originally posted by penguin
How about ePod.
Smaller and Yellow

lol, where did you get "yellow" from?

Flowbee
Nov 26, 2003, 01:58 AM
Originally posted by bentmywookie
lol, where did you get "yellow" from?

That would be the pPod.

Analog Kid
Nov 26, 2003, 04:36 AM
Originally posted by jettredmont
Folks, you don't have a driver for every camera. Prior to about two years ago, every camera had its own driver. Today the interface is standardized, and modern cameras all appear as a Mass Storage Device.

Supporting 90% of all current and most likely 100% of all future cameras would just mean supporting MSD.

Exactly. This is why you can just plug your camera into your Mac.

The dock connector has a USB interface, and the controller is capable of acting as a USB host. I can't see any reason why a simple cable connection wouldn't be possible...

[Edit: not that this has anything to do with the current thread, mind you...]

hokka
Nov 26, 2003, 05:00 AM
Recently I was speaking with a mac distibutor here in Oz, he said that basically the 1GB Flash versions currently available are basically 2 x 512MB soldered together, and are CRAP (ie. not reliable at all!).

If you can imagine the thiness of the flash boards found in USB and MP3 players, it is very easy for leak and short to happen, especially when they are one on top of the other. He had quiet a few customer returning them due to lost data and he had to pay them out of his own pocket and vowed never to sell them again (well, at least until there is a true 1GB or more versions available).

CmdrLaForge
Nov 26, 2003, 06:46 AM
Originally posted by Flowbee
That would be the pPod.

pPod ? ? ? Why that ?

Geetar
Nov 26, 2003, 07:28 AM
Originally posted by CmdrLaForge
pPod ? ? ? Why that ?

Oh freddled gruntbuggly thy micturations are to me as....er....a yellow iPod.

Hope that answers your question;)

claytonbench
Nov 26, 2003, 08:49 AM
My guess at price is $99 to $129

just my 2 cents

the_mole1314
Nov 26, 2003, 08:49 AM
Hey guys, I'm opening my lips some more, and I can tell you that it's VERY likely (sp?) it will happen. I've heard some price points, but I'm not 100% on what it is, but it's lower than $200, a lot less.

1macker1
Nov 26, 2003, 09:11 AM
THREE CHEERS FOR THE MOLE!

Originally posted by the_mole1314
Hey guys, I'm opening my lips some more, and I can tell you that it's VERY likely (sp?) it will happen. I've heard some price points, but I'm not 100% on what it is, but it's lower than $200, a lot less.

sethwerkheiser
Nov 26, 2003, 09:21 AM
I only have 4GB worth of music, so a 5GB version would rock. But after hinting to my wife that we could back-up her school work on it, and put our digital photos on it, I think she might be sold on the 10GB version... hehe...

We'll see though. I do know we'll be hitting the Apple store on Black Friday so boy-oh-boy - I can't wait to see what they do :)

Sol
Nov 26, 2003, 09:46 AM
Unless we are talking about a 5 GB iPod that is smaller/lighter to the current models, I do not think that it will turn out to be true. 1.8" drives come with 10 GB minimum. Compact Flash drives come in those capacities on the high-end.

If a mini-iPod comes out I would rather that it also have a built-in media card reader and also Bluetooth. With such an iPod I imagine receiving iTunes credits instantly at McDonalds and using it to back-up data from cameras and mobile phones. Having said that, digital photos would be best to browse on a relatively high resolution screen which is where the next-generation iPod will fit into the picture.

Tulse
Nov 26, 2003, 10:29 AM
I've heard some price points, but I'm not 100% on what it is, but it's lower than $200, a lot less.

I would be hugely surprised if Apple could produce a hard-drive-based player as small as the iPod for under $200. The 1.8" hard drives simply cost too much. And I really can't see Apple producing a flash-based player, since the whole selling point of the iPod is that it can carry your whole music library -- there would be very little to distinguish a flash iPod from other flash-based players, many of which are tiny.

If Apple can pull off an iPod at that pricepoint, I'll be tremendously impressed, but right now, I'm skeptical.

joker2
Nov 26, 2003, 10:48 AM
Correct me if I'm mistaken, but there is a niche that could be filled here. (If it is, I'm buying one this year, and another to be bought as a gift.)

iTunes works solely with the iPod, and therefore the other players are not an option for "effortless" synching of a playlist. I don't need 10-40 gig, as much as I would like it (can't afford it right now since I'm paying off my new 12" powerbook...). 5 Gig (or even 3?) is more than enough for a day's worth of songs.

Show me another player that can synch to my playlist and is smaller than a CD player (and costs under say, $200) and that company may have a customer.

rdas7
Nov 26, 2003, 11:14 AM
It seems unlikely since the whole point of such a large storage capacity in the iPod is not for the reason that you can carry your whole music collection around with you, but rather that you *can* carry your whole music collection around with you and thus not need to worry about syncing, putting the right tape in your pocket, etc. etc. The whole point is: you don't have to think about what's on and not on your iPod, it's just *there*. That's what Steve said himself in the latest Financial Review, and would therefore make a 5GB iPod (or removable storage/flash iPod) unlikely. You end up spending more time moving songs to and from the device, instead of just pressing "play".

Having said that, a 5GB iPod at $99 would sell like hotcakes, make iTunes the preferred music store of choice, and essentially wipe out forevermore any competition in the digital music distribution arena.

As for the next iLife app to go to Windows, it'll have to be iChat. The IM scene on the Windows side is lamentable (too much choice, not enough stability) - and this is what I've been told from Windows users!!! iChat would sell iSights. No other iApp really has that associated hardware link (iPhoto, iMovie, etc.)

Apple have been prudent in unstable times. Steve himself said that he sees this economic slump gradually recovering. If during the hard times Apple was releasing flat panel iMacs, touch sensitive iPods and 17" G4 PowerBooks, just imagine what they'll be doing in the good times!!!

FriarTuck
Nov 26, 2003, 12:32 PM
To stick with the naming family scheme, an ePod would have to weigh at least 10 pounds.

mrsebastian
Nov 26, 2003, 01:30 PM
ipods, ipods, ipods! i agree with most that a cheaper 5g ipod is pretty unlikely. when sales have been as good as they have, why would they undermine themselves? unless the manufacturing costs start coming down, ipods will continue to be expensive.

for those that think apple will ever use flash cards instead of hard drives, you've had too many pan-galactic gargle blasters. the price/storage ratio is just way too high!

SiliconAddict
Nov 26, 2003, 01:52 PM
Originally posted by rdas7



As for the next iLife app to go to Windows, it'll have to be iChat. The IM scene on the Windows side is lamentable (too much choice, not enough stability) - and this is what I've been told from Windows users!!! iChat would sell iSights. No other iApp really has that associated hardware link (iPhoto, iMovie, etc.)

Try looking at Trillian 2.0. It blows iChat out of the water when it comes to features http://www.ceruleanstudios.com/products/new_features.php I especially like the fact that Trillian supports AIM’s 128 bit encryption. There have been times I’ve had to send a username\password to a friend to allow him access to my home server. Its nice to know that Blowfish 128 encryption is about as strong as you are going to get. And then there is the number of supported IM services out there. iChat 1. Trillian 5 which includes IRC. Heck with the Trillian’s iChat theme you can even make it look and sound like iChat. I had a friend come over with his ibook and while we were talking I brought up Trillian. The guy did a double take asking when did Apple released iChat for Windows. Priceless. :)
Personally I don't care for video conferencing which is iChat’s biggest claim to fame. When I talk to someone online I do other things in the background. It’s nearly impossible to multitask when you are face to face, talking. If Apple did release iChat for Windows it’s a pretty good bet that it would be similarly priced to iChat for Mac. (30 bucks.) For that price you could just as easily get Trillian for $25 I just don’t see it happening. iTunes was necessity to win the online music battle, as would be a 5GB iPod. iChat isn’t a necessity.
And the topic has been brought up before. With AOL and Apple in bed together with iTMS it’s a relatively small leap for the AIM client to support the iSight without needing to go out and rewrite an app from scratch. (i.e. iChat.)

pkradd
Nov 26, 2003, 03:03 PM
Apple would never come out with a flash memory MP3 player. That's going backwards. And they certainly would not call it an iPod (which they won't because it ain't gonna happen). However, a 5 Gig model for between $149 and $199 is possible. Toshiba makes the hard drives. If Apple orded enough I'm sure they'd make the 5 Gig for them. Apple could use the original form factor (slightly larger) with perhaps removeable batteries instead of rechargeable (to save money) as well as the mechanical wheel and no dock. It's possible. But probably not going to happen for a while. But Apple does say "some surprises" for November 28th at the retail stores. So we'll have to wait and see.

ClimbingTheLog
Nov 26, 2003, 03:31 PM
The Toshiba 5GB hdd in the PCMCIA formfactor regularly sells for $199.

The iPod electronics are alot more expensive than a PCMCIA controller, so Apple would have to accept lower margins to do it at that price.

They're in the business of selling iTunes as a loss-leader for iPods, not the other way around. They'd have to change their business plan to make this work. Maybe that's what McDonald's and Pepsi are about, but that's not the advice they've been giving investors.

Still, a 10GB $199 iPod would clear the shelves for Christmas.

the_mole1314
Nov 26, 2003, 03:36 PM
Originally posted by ClimbingTheLog
The Toshiba 5GB hdd in the PCMCIA formfactor regularly sells for $199.

The iPod electronics are alot more expensive than a PCMCIA controller, so Apple would have to accept lower margins to do it at that price.

They're in the business of selling iTunes as a loss-leader for iPods, not the other way around. They'd have to change their business plan to make this work. Maybe that's what McDonald's and Pepsi are about, but that's not the advice they've been giving investors.

Still, a 10GB $199 iPod would clear the shelves for Christmas.

As I've said before, HAVE YOU HEARD OF MASS DISCOUNTS?

toughboy
Nov 26, 2003, 03:45 PM
well...

I'm sure that nobody has problems with an extra 5 gbs..

so then the reason why apple shall release 5gb iPods when they have 10gbs is the price!.. isnt it...

people dont want to pay extra 100 dolars (or something like that) for that extra 5 gbs that they "may" use, but dont really need...

then...

if the only reason is price or "money" then why dont we expect or want discount for holiday season on 10gbs??? not 100$ but 50 maybe..

this seems more logical than expecting Apple to make up another niche market to work on!...

MongoTheGeek
Nov 26, 2003, 03:59 PM
Originally posted by the_mole1314
As I've said before, HAVE YOU HEARD OF MASS DISCOUNTS?

Mass discounts aside I doubt anything thinks that it costs Apple anywhere near $300 to build an iPod.

Looking at the prices a 5gb iPod *should* retail for $250. Most of that will be profit though. I don't think they could convince people to but that when the 10g is only $50 more. (think supersize...)

Apple might cut prices to the point where they aren't making $100 each. That was the number I saw yesterday of someone's estimate of how much the non HD components are. It sounds reasonable to me. The only components that I have priced before that go into it are the batteries and his number there looked high. (Don't think replacement battery costs, thats like thinking Ink Jet cartridges)

Assuming disk space is linear (and not marked up!) The non hd components retail for $200. That is $100 on each unit.

As someone pointed out ITMS is a loss leader for iPods. If Apple squeezes better terms they will gladly reverse it and the iPod prices will crater.

FlamDrag
Nov 26, 2003, 05:06 PM
I disagree that iPod prices could ever - and I rather dislike using terms such as "ever, always, never" - crater as you put it. It's just my opinion, but it is difficult for me to imagine Apple taking a loss on hardware.

Furthermore Apple would have to get an crazy-sweet deal from RIAA to sell songs for less significantly less than 99 cents. For the sake of argument, let's pretend that Apple could sell them for... 49 cents and make 20 cents / song vs their current 10. So they make double what they make now. In order for Apple to stay even on the deal - they would have to bank on a new iPod owner purchasing 100 songs for every $10 they reduced the price of an iPod. A $10 reduction on a $299 item probably isn't significant enough to make many people "pull the trigger" on an iPod purchase that would not have at the original price.

I would guess that the minimum price reduction to be seen as significant is at least $20 or 200 songs in my scenario above. That's a lot of songs for every new iPod user to buy. From an economic standpoint, I'd rather have that $20 now than spread out over the 10 months (at the generous rate of 20 songs per month) that a user might buy songs on iTMS.

Granted, Apple's costs on the iPod may go down significantly allowing them to make it all work, but at this point, we already have a significant amount of "if if if" which leads me to find an "iPod selling iTMS songs" scenario highly unlikely. Rather I can imagine a time with both the iTMS and iPod make money.

Just my thoughts. Feel free to disagree.

jxyama
Nov 26, 2003, 06:21 PM
not sure if it's been mentioned, but kodawarisan is reporting the revival of 5 GB iPod for the holidays... $199.

CORRECTION: actually, he doesn't say "revived." i think he meant a 5 GB iPod being introduced - it's probably the same form factor as the 3rd gen. iPods.

the_mole1314
Nov 26, 2003, 08:15 PM
And from what I'm hearing, it might even be slimmer.....

ceriess
Nov 27, 2003, 12:32 AM
I still haven't bought an ipod, even though I have over 10gb of music that I would love to have with me more or less all the time. I just keep thinking that when I buy one, Steve-O will release the next gen. The one that plays video, ya know?

sjcaguy
Nov 27, 2003, 01:03 AM
Arg.

I was going to place my order tomorrow for a 10GB iPod and my new iBook...they can't configure the machine in the store like I want it.

Should I wait to see what happens on Friday at the in-store event, or should I just suck it up and place the order?

Doctor Q
Nov 27, 2003, 01:16 AM
Originally posted by sjcaguy
Should I wait to see what happens on Friday at the in-store event, or should I just suck it up and place the order? You might as well wait for Friday and find out what your choices and their prices turn out to be.

stingerman
Nov 27, 2003, 02:40 AM
The Flash Player and hard drive player markets are two different markets and never the twain shall meet. Apple is not in the Flash market now, but they need to be if they want iTunes to have 100% coverage.

Will this hurt iPod sales: No. Why? Because flash players already exist and people are still buying iPods. Only there are no flash players that play AAC with Fairplay DRM. The Flash player market is not going away.

Why an Apple flash player? Because it will be the first exposure to MP3 portable players for over 50% of the market. And, the market is growing very fast. The theory is Joe/Jane Public buys a 128MB or 256 MB player to use with iTunes. They use it day to day. It fits on their key ring small and nice and you can transfer files with it too.

As time goes on, the value of the MP3 device grows to become essential. Your music collection continues to grow and swapping music back and forth is a hassle. It sure would be nice to have 10GBs and you'll get your Calendar, Address book, task list etc. for just $100 or so more than the price of a flash player. Since all your music is already AAC with Fairplay (iTunes Music Store) the iPod is the natural upgrade.

And you get to keep the neat Apple Flash player. In fact, I can see some households having both flash players and iPods.

I think this secret device is a Flash Player. And Apple would sell 10's of millions of them and they in turn will sell millions of iPods. Apple sells iSights for $149, OS X for $149 and KeyNote for $99 so adding these gadgets to their portfolio of products should generate more than iSight and Keynote combined: a 64MB iFlash for $99, a 128MB iFlash for $149 and a 256MB iflash for $199 is a reasonable conjecture.

stingerman
Nov 27, 2003, 02:53 AM
what do you think?

stingerman
Nov 27, 2003, 02:57 AM
One more thing: itunes would only need to be adjusted to recognize the iFlash and create a special folder for it so you can easily sync while staying within its memory limit. Like the remote iDisk currently works with Panther.

mkjj
Nov 27, 2003, 08:48 AM
A 5 Gb iPod won't happen, as others have stated all Apple will do is reduce the price of the 10GB. I have a 30gb Pod with 2,335 songs on taking 11GB of space plus about 4GB of photos and files when used as a hard drive, don't forget folks this is always another use for the Pod!
Technology never usually goes backward, having said that, the new G4 iBook 12 inch has 10GB less HD space than my G3 900 which nobody seems to have picked up on, strange decision that?

Maybe a 5GB Pod may happen after all!

iMac 17", iPod 30gb, 900 G3 iBook, Twentieth Ann Mac, G3 500/128ram-10/100

the future
Nov 27, 2003, 09:25 AM
Originally posted by stingerman
The Flash Player and hard drive player markets are two different markets and never the twain shall meet. Apple is not in the Flash market now, but they need to be if they want iTunes to have 100% coverage.

Will this hurt iPod sales: No. Why? Because flash players already exist and people are still buying iPods. Only there are no flash players that play AAC with Fairplay DRM. The Flash player market is not going away.

Why an Apple flash player? Because it will be the first exposure to MP3 portable players for over 50% of the market. And, the market is growing very fast. The theory is Joe/Jane Public buys a 128MB or 256 MB player to use with iTunes. They use it day to day. It fits on their key ring small and nice and you can transfer files with it too.

As time goes on, the value of the MP3 device grows to become essential. Your music collection continues to grow and swapping music back and forth is a hassle. It sure would be nice to have 10GBs and you'll get your Calendar, Address book, task list etc. for just $100 or so more than the price of a flash player. Since all your music is already AAC with Fairplay (iTunes Music Store) the iPod is the natural upgrade.

And you get to keep the neat Apple Flash player. In fact, I can see some households having both flash players and iPods.

I think this secret device is a Flash Player. And Apple would sell 10's of millions of them and they in turn will sell millions of iPods. Apple sells iSights for $149, OS X for $149 and KeyNote for $99 so adding these gadgets to their portfolio of products should generate more than iSight and Keynote combined: a 64MB iFlash for $99, a 128MB iFlash for $149 and a 256MB iflash for $199 is a reasonable conjecture.

Good thinking. I absolutely agree.

Rod Rod
Nov 27, 2003, 01:52 PM
Originally posted by Steven1621
hmm i think the idea of a "bargain" ipod will devalue the product line. the ipod is the most prestigious player on the market and i feel that making a cheap model might make it rather "bourgeoisie" to a certain extent. while i certainly believe that more people with apple products is better, i also think that apple must do all it can to preserve the allure of the ipod, considering the number of similar players that are considerably cheaper (Dell).

Making a "cheap" model should hopefully not make the iPod "bourgeoisie." A "cheap" model should make the iPod proletarian. Let's stop the class talk because it makes Apple people look like snobs. There's nothing wrong with having both prestige and market share, and both high quality and reasonable prices. Neither pair should be mutually exclusive.

sethypoo
Nov 27, 2003, 02:00 PM
Originally posted by Rod Rod
Making a "cheap" model should hopefully not make the iPod "bourgeoisie." A "cheap" model should make the iPod proletarian. Let's stop the class talk because it makes Apple people look like snobs. There's nothing wrong with having both prestige and market share, and both high quality and reasonable prices. Neither pair should be mutually exclusive.

That makes sense, but I still think if people want a cheap flash MP3 player, they should go somewhere other than Apple, because Apple *is* high quality for a high price.

macFanDave
Nov 27, 2003, 03:11 PM
with the purchase of any Mac.

with the purchase of a .Mac subscription.

with the purchase of AppleCare.

- or -

Did you see how HP won the Michigan school laptop contract by quoting them $275 per student per year including maintenance and tech support? They will lose money, but at least no one else won.

A $99 iPod would destroy all of the WMA competitors since they are just slightly less expensive than currrent iPods. Since AAC is like Betamax and WMA is like VHS, maybe Apple will take a hit to avoid Sony's fate. What if Sony had undercut the major VHS competitors early in the video era?

Just a theory.

drbyers
Nov 27, 2003, 09:28 PM
the Toshiba harddrives Apple uses for the iPod are the same ones VST Tech uses for their ultra portable "Firefly" and "FireLight" hard drive line.

I bought a 5GB Firefly two years ago for $100, and that was TWO YEARS AGO. so who says Apple couldn't produce a $100 5G iPod today without meeking out a profit?

Manufacturing works like this: the more you make, the cheaper the product becomes to manufacture.

Those original Toshiba hard drives should do the trick just fine, IMO.

Tulse
Nov 27, 2003, 11:45 PM
I bought a 5GB Firefly two years ago for $100, and that was TWO YEARS AGO. so who says Apple couldn't produce a $100 5G iPod today without meeking out a profit?


I'm extremely impressed, given that the MSRP for the Firefly in 2001 was $200 (as this review (http://www.macease.com/review-smartdisk%d5s_firefly.html) shows). And if it costs $200 retail just for an enclosed drive, imagine adding an LCD display, audio encoding and decoding hardware, touch-sensitive controls, a battery, earphones, etc. etc.

And yeah, Apple gets a volume discount from Toshiba. Presumably, so does the manufacturer of the Firefly. $200 is probably a good estimate of how much a basic 1.8" 5G hard drive can be sold and still make a profit.

Don't get me wrong -- I'd love for Apple to release a $200 iPod. I just don't think they can and make money.

I guess we'll find out tomorrow.

drbyers
Nov 27, 2003, 11:49 PM
wanna see my receipt? I bought it from Apple's online store. heehee.

they musta had a deal worked out with VST. who am i to complain that they might have listed the selling price wrong?

CalfCanuck
Nov 28, 2003, 04:55 AM
Originally posted by mrsebastian
for those that think apple will ever use flash cards instead of hard drives, you've had too many pan-galactic gargle blasters. the price/storage ratio is just way too high!

I couldn't disagree more! 0's and 1's don't care where they are stored, and neither does Apple. If a 50 GB Flash storage device came out cheaper than a HD, Apple would (and should) jump ship overnight.

Compact flash and hard disks tangled once before in another portable, high "abuse" market where the HD had the early advantage, and the HD got it's ass kicked! I'm talking about digital photography, where the stakes were high and people were (are) willing to pay a fortune.

For my first Canon D30 in Dec 2000 I bought a 1GB IBM microdrive for about $800, as comparably priced Compact Flash cards were 25 percent of the storage size. The Microdrives had a few problems holding up to the bumps and jostles of everyday use, but they had the initial capacity/price advantage.

Fast forward to late 2003. The high end Compact Flash cards have a capacity of 4 GB and transfer rates pushing 10 MB/sec. It's called technological progress! Now these high end cards ain't cheap, at least not yet. But my Microdrive has sat in a drawer for the last year, as the 512 MB cards came down in price (in Mar 2003 I bought my third 512 MB card, for $99 with manufacturer rebate).

I can go buy a retail 1GB Compact Flash card for $225 today (B&H Photo). And don't forget we're talking about LAST year's production processes for these current prices. I'm sure there must be some new fabrication line ramping up, that would LOVE to get an order for 100,000 chips (even just above cost) to bring down their average cost for their retail units that will swamp the market this "digital" christmas.

So if Apple wants to drop a 512 MB flash card in a cheap unit, they could find a producer to work with a low price point.

Secondly, everyone seems of two minds about a unit like this - either it's too small in storage, or it would cripple the high end units. Well, just listen to yourselves - that merely proves that a company CAN have a high end (unlimited storage of music at high prices) AND a low-end (limited storage at a bargain price) that exist at the same time. Ever heard of Powerbook and iBook? Powermac and eMac?

Whether Apple will do this "ePod" or not now is unclear, but a couple of things are clear.

1. Apple wants to remain the music download vehicle of choice.
2. iPods are where the users store portable downloaded music
3. $400 is too high a price for entry users
4. Low end users WILL move upmarket after they are satisfied w the product
5. Low and high end "music storage devices" can co-exist, and even fuel sales of the high-end units over time, if the fundamental concept works.

Lancetx
Nov 28, 2003, 08:36 AM
Well, looks like the big sale is just a one day only 10% off deal. No 5GB iPods either. I'm sure there will be some disappointed people, but the 5GB for $99 rumor was rather unrealistic for anyone to expect anyway.

SoonToGetAMac
Nov 28, 2003, 10:06 AM
Originally posted by Lancetx
Well, looks like the big sale is just a one day only 10% off deal. No 5GB iPods either. I'm sure there will be some disappointed people, but the 5GB for $99 rumor was rather unrealistic for anyone to expect anyway. Did you goto the store and check it out?

scat999999
Nov 28, 2003, 11:47 AM
Originally posted by Lancetx
Well, looks like the big sale is just a one day only 10% off deal. No 5GB iPods either. I'm sure there will be some disappointed people, but the 5GB for $99 rumor was rather unrealistic for anyone to expect anyway.

joeconvert
Nov 28, 2003, 12:08 PM
http://www1.us.dell.com/content/products/productdetails.aspx/dj_15?c=us&cs=19&l=en&s=dhs


'Nuff Said.


And yea.... I went by my local Apple Store today. They weren't even hyping their music offerings., but they were doing the 10% off bit.

Prediction: In 18 months iTunes downloads will cost $1.50.

In that time Apple wil no longer be able to subsidize the cheap downloads. iPod sales will have peaked due to the availability of cheaper, larger capacity Windows compatible players. Once again Apple blows anyt chance of taking on the rest of the PC market.

Lancetx
Nov 28, 2003, 12:26 PM
Well, things can change of course but it's not like Apple is exactly hurting right now and therefore had to severely cut prices or come out with a cheaper model iPod. Last time I checked the iPod was the top selling mp3 player and the iTMS was the top ranked online music store in terms of sales. If Dell should start to cut into that with their 15GB jukebox for $199, then I'm sure Apple will do something to retaliate, but not before then.

Rod Rod
Nov 28, 2003, 02:38 PM
the reality distortion field is in full effect. second-guessing Apple is a sin. a desire to completely dominate is a sin. resting on your laurels is a virtue. </soapbox>

going by "the last time I checked" is backwards. what's the matter with looking foward? Dell can get you a 15GB player for $199 (as was linked above), so why can't Apple do a 10GB for $199? it's a fair question. it's better to build your boat before the flood. the last time I checked, it wasn't "raining" . . . but that rain's likely about to start and it's best to be prepared.

the_mole1314
Nov 28, 2003, 07:15 PM
Well, I'm surprised that they didn't come out with a 5 yet, so I'm going to go talk with someone soon....

oingoboingo
Dec 2, 2003, 11:06 PM
Originally posted by iMax531
but unlikely...

If there had been that intention, It never would have been axed in the first place. Blus, it is very un-Jobsian to introduce anything with lower specs, or to bring back an old product.


Like the 'new' dual 1.25GHz G4 PowerMacs which were revived from the dead when the G5s were introduced?

iMook
Dec 12, 2003, 02:09 PM
What is this fixation with 5 GB as a magic number? Some have said 512 MB flash, some have said cheaper 15 GB HDDs.

What about the new 1.5 GB cheap 1" HDD from Cornice?
The one that the Rio Nitrus uses. The one in the Samsung ITCAM-7/ITCAM-9. The one in the new squarish Creative mp3 player (forgot the name, search on CNet).

Have you guys heard of the new thin-as-a-credit-card Mylar HDD (http://www.pcworld.com/news/article/0,aid,108816,tk,dn011603X,00.asp) ?
No comments on durability, but in terms of size, it's second-to-none.



By the way, Toshiba will be unveiling a new 1" HDD soon. Imagine if that'd be 5 GB, hmm?

drbyers
Dec 12, 2003, 04:30 PM
as long as it's cheaper, i don't care what size it comes in.