Im pretty sure Apple requires a 2 year contract with every 3g iphone purchase. Read it on the site. So that means you're going to have to renew your contract for another 2 years being stuck in at the higher rate for close to 4 years.
Simple... Looks like the iPhone will be available Pay As You Go in the UK - so I'm sure that there will be many enterprising people willing to sell you a cracked 3G phone if you don't mind the shipping charges and the reasonable markup.
Kind of the revers of what happened when the iPhone came out. Lots of unlocked units were snapped up by people outside the US.
Of course with the poor $ you could find it a little expensive ($700 to $800 would be my guess).
What I think is really funny is those who sold jailbroken iPhones thinking they would get a 3G Phone they can jailbreak. Looks like requiring activation at POS will make that problematic.
I wonder how many of those people will be looking to buy a used 1st Gen iPhone again. 😛