Apple stock: what's goin' on?

[peterdevries]

Does anyone know what's goin'on with the apple stock? It's at 176 at the moment :eek: I'm quite surprised as most analysts have actually published new targets from 235 to 250...

edit: just read some speculation about Jobs' health as he appeared thin on monday, but this was old news (10th of june)..

What's goin on?

[IJ Reilly]

AAPL is just one stock in a market which is in bad shape overall. I'm actually surprised by how well it's holding up under all the pressure.

[Island Roots]

The topic of Steve Jobs' health is causing Apple's stock to take a beating. In just the past couple days the stock has dropped almost 7%. Chalk some of that up to the overall market, yes. But look at it today where both the DOW and NASDAQ have been up a full percent, yet Apple's stock is down over 3% on the day.

Steve Jobs is vital to Apple - his worth to the company has been labeled at more than $20 billion (http://news.cnet.com/8301-10784_3-6170443-7.html). When such a vital person appears to be having health issues, it's cause for concern (http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/26740/Apple-Denies-Steve-Jobs-Is-Ailing%2C-but-Concerns-Linger).

Also remember that what was announced at WWDC had already been factored into the stock price - everyone knew about it. What wasn't factored in was that some expected features/announcements weren't made (video conferencing) which also have hurt its stock price.

[IJ Reilly]

No, Steve's health is not an issue. AAPL is a volatile stock and on any given day you can't attribute it's moves to anything short of actual news.

[lofight]

Just remember one thing. It's stock. It does many unexplainable stuff, but it's right.

[MacNut]

The stock is probably due for a bit of a drop. Most of that is iPhone.

[skunk]

What is going on is the usual Apple roller-coaster, especially after a keynote. It will pass.

[nbs2]

Today, in particular, Apple dropped on increased expectations for Palm Centro sales. As Apple dropped, Palm gained.

Massive drops are usually reactive - either to bad news in the company or good news outside. If you can't find anything from Apple, look at their competitors.

[Stratification]

If I'm not mistaken the stock routinely drops after keynotes (note that I don't follow avidly, I just see posts like this nearly every time).

[IJ Reilly]

If I'm not mistaken the stock routinely drops after keynotes (note that I don't follow avidly, I just see posts like this nearly every time).

Often it does, but not always. The overriding factor these days is the volatile market.

[megfilmworks]

The fact that a few very influential articles came out yesterday and today regarding SJ's health and the secrecy surrounding it plus a lack of a strong successor has played a part.
As we get closer to July it will climb and outperform.

[LeMacK]

I'm quite surprised as most analysts have actually published new targets from 235 to 250...

remember those are the same guys who once said apple would drop from ~80 to 48.....and instead it jumped to ~110 :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

i have yet to see an accurate prediction from the analysts regarding AAPL

considering the market we're in, AAPL is doing very well...and keep in mind that it is hugely overvalued even at the current price.

[IJ Reilly]

The fact that a few very influential articles came out yesterday and today regarding SJ's health and the secrecy surrounding it plus a lack of a strong successor has played a part.
As we get closer to July it will climb and outperform.

They were articles. Whether they were "very influential" is a matter of opinion. In the end, the markets care about these factors, in diminishing order of importance: profits, forecasts of future profits, sales, forecasts of future sales, products, news, rumors, speculation -- all of which can be overridden by the broader hopes, fears and expectations of the markets related to general economic conditions, not to mention, plain old randomness.

The "Steve's health" question falls squarely under the "speculation" category. It's a low-order issue to which the markets may react, all else being equal -- which it rarely is.

[Much Ado]

If you have to ask the question, then you 'aint ready to invest yet.

(P.S. Check out YHOO)

[megfilmworks]

They were articles. Whether they were "very influential" is a matter of opinion. In the end, the markets care about these factors, in diminishing order of importance: profits, forecasts of future profits, sales, forecasts of future sales, products, news, rumors, speculation -- all of which can be overridden by the broader hopes, fears and expectations of the markets related to general economic conditions, not to mention, plain old randomness.

The "Steve's health" question falls squarely under the "speculation" category. It's a low-order issue to which the markets may react, all else being equal -- which it rarely is.

I agree in general, but the health of SJ is a big concern on the Street.
Not only because he is AAPL but also that he kept his first bout of cancer a secret from investors.
When WSJ, CNBC, Drudge (who stated the current rumors), etc. all are talking and writing about him as well as the implications of him stepping down, then it's hard not to take it as a driver in the large loss yesterday and today.
On the various financial websites it is the lead item on AAPL.

[IJ Reilly]

I agree in general, but the health of SJ is a big concern on the Street.
Not only because he is AAPL but also that he kept his first bout of cancer a secret from investors.
When WSJ, CNBC, Drudge (who stated the current rumors), etc. all are talking and writing about him as well as the implications of him stepping down, then it's hard not to take it as a driver in the large loss yesterday and today.
On the various financial websites it is the lead item on AAPL.

Every time a stock moves up or down somebody somewhere says they know exactly why. Listen carefully and you'll hear that 98% of this analysis is generic "moved lower on fears of..." or "moved higher on expectations of..." nonsense. The reality is they don't usually have a clue why a stock goes up or down on any given day. They aren't polling buyers or sellers on their motivations, they're just latching onto vague generalities.

The health of Steve Jobs is gossip, grist for the mill -- little more. Not that people don't like gossip and speculation, but anyone who buys or sells on gossip and speculation gets what they deserve.

[peterdevries]

If you have to ask the question, then you 'aint ready to invest yet.

(P.S. Check out YHOO)

So you know everything? :rolleyes:

Maybe I wasn't clear, but my question related to the extremely sharp drop at around 10:30 EST today, and I couldn't find any news from around that time. It seems unlikely that exactly at that time many apple stock owners by coincidence decided to sell.

[Sun Baked]

No news?

You sure Jim Cramer wasn't on telling people to sell Apple stock again, sell enough to pay for itselt and let the profit ride.

[Much Ado]

Maybe I wasn't clear, but my question related to the extremely sharp drop at around 10:30 EST today, and I couldn't find any news from around that time. It seems unlikely that exactly at that time many apple stock owners by coincidence decided to sell.

That drop is not particularly significant, there are/have been much worse. Just sit tight, it's a weird old market out there, and we're post-keynote.

[cycocelica]

What is going on is the usual Apple roller-coaster, especially after a keynote. It will pass.

I am selling it before the next keynote. I am tired of this ****.

Buy it back a couple days after too.

[Kinderhauz]

The health of Steve Jobs is gossip, grist for the mill -- little more. Not that people don't like gossip and speculation, but anyone who buys or sells on gossip and speculation gets what they deserve.

A lot of traders and multi-billion dollar hedge funds buy and sell on gossip and speculation, so yeah, this kind of thing does have an impact on price.

AAPL stock is down because of three things 1) there is no way WWDC could have lived up to the hype that had built up beforehand 2) the overall market is trending down lately and 3) the rumors about Steve Jobs's health.

There are many times when a catalyst is obvious. In this case AAPL's recent fall cannot be attributed to the broad market. Apple was riding high during the past few months while the rest of the market was in the doldrums.

A lot of people are worried for a number of reasons, and therefore they are taking profits in AAPL.

[Kinderhauz]

No news?

You sure Jim Cramer wasn't on telling people to sell Apple stock again, sell enough to pay for itselt and let the profit ride.

That is exactly what he told people to do. Jim Cramer is a ****ing disgrace. He has lured thousands of naive people into trading their lives away. The other day on his show, one of his callers actually said that he quit his job so he could become a full-time trader. Mad Money my ****ing ass. Jim Cramer zig-zags in and out of stocks like a chicken with his god damn head cut off.

Every study shows that buy and hold wins over active trading. Jim Cramer should be in jail for ruining so many people's lives.

[PowerFullMac]

Now its dropping you lot all go out and invest in some Apple stock! Now! Go!

Come July 11th it will rise 10%, when will only go higher as APPL gets more $$$ from the 3G iPhone in 70 new countries :eek:

[HD303]

Does anyone know what the profit margins are on the iphone? What it costs Apple to produce?

I think AT&T may be in a better position to capitalize on the growth of the iPhone than AAPL. Look at the two year contracts, and the annual rates subscribers will be paying. Apple is selling the razor, but AT&T is selling the razor blades which is an ongoing income for AT&T.

[chicagdan]

If I'm not mistaken the stock routinely drops after keynotes (note that I don't follow avidly, I just see posts like this nearly every time).

Yep ... buy the rumor, sell the news. It's a Wall Street cliche by now.

[bigjnyc]

I'm sure investors expected the iPhone to be released in June and that was priced into the stock, the july 11th announcement had a lot to do with the price drop. you'll see it pick up again as launch date gets closer and the hype starts picking up with people talking about making lines.

[Melrose]

It's not uncommon in a time of crisis for the more timid elements to run for cover.

I don't think a dip in Apple stock is anything to worry about. Just think if you had bought a few thousand shares back in the earlier nineties? The market goes up and down - that's just the way it goes - you have to look at the long term growth. Apple is a solid company.

[IJ Reilly]

A lot of traders and multi-billion dollar hedge funds buy and sell on gossip and speculation, so yeah, this kind of thing does have an impact on price.

AAPL stock is down because of three things 1) there is no way WWDC could have lived up to the hype that had built up beforehand 2) the overall market is trending down lately and 3) the rumors about Steve Jobs's health.

There are many times when a catalyst is obvious. In this case AAPL's recent fall cannot be attributed to the broad market. Apple was riding high during the past few months while the rest of the market was in the doldrums.

A lot of people are worried for a number of reasons, and therefore they are taking profits in AAPL.

The institutional traders move in and out of stocks regularly for reasons of their own. They follow momentum, not value.

As for your three reasons, only (2) makes any sense to me. The "hype" turned out to be almost 100% accurate, and as I said before, the question of Steve's health is simply a speculative distraction. Anyone who trades on speculation gets what they deserve.

[jb60606]

Does anyone know what the profit margins are on the iphone? What it costs Apple to produce?

I think AT&T may be in a better position to capitalize on the growth of the iPhone than AAPL. Look at the two year contracts, and the annual rates subscribers will be paying. Apple is selling the razor, but AT&T is selling the razor blades which is an ongoing income for AT&T.

Apple gets $430 from AT&T for every iPhone contract. On top of the $400+ they make on the iPhone alone, Apple comes out ahead, and then some ($800+ for every iPhone sold). They wouldn't have promised their product to a single wireless carrier without additional incentive.

[megfilmworks]

Anyone who trades on speculation gets what they deserve.
The stock market as a whole trades on speculation.
P+E's are ignored. Coming in under the speculation (even with a healthy profit) causes a downturn. It's been that way for quite a few years now.
Speculation and rumor are big drivers on the Street, both for the single trader and the large institutional fund managers.
Also, fund managers do not follow momentum, they create it.

[IJ Reilly]

The stock market as a whole trades on speculation.
P+E's are ignored. Coming in under the speculation (even with a healthy profit) causes a downturn. It's been that way for quite a few years now.
Speculation and rumor are big drivers on the Street, both for the single trader and the large institutional fund managers.
Also, fund managers do not follow momentum, they create it.

This is the difference between trading and investing. Over time investors will do fine so long as their investments are sound and they don't become swept up in speculation-driven trading.

[Kinderhauz]

Now its dropping you lot all go out and invest in some Apple stock! Now! Go!

Come July 11th it will rise 10%, when will only go higher as APPL gets more $$$ from the 3G iPhone in 70 new countries :eek:


I agree that Apple is a buy now, but I think that the iPhone's international potential of the iPhone is at least partially priced in to the stock already. The market anticipates those kind of things.

[megfilmworks]

I agree that Apple is a buy now, but I think that the iPhone's international potential of the iPhone is at least partially priced in to the stock already. The market anticipates those kind of things.
Absolutely, If Apple doesn't make the 10 million mark on iPhone sales then the stock will drop back to around 120 or so, IMHO.
When the Street predicts performance, you'd better beat it or lose value.
And I agree with J.J. about the difference between long term and short term investing. Although even long term investing requires speculation. All investing is a form of speculation. There are NO guarantees.... remember Lucent??

[IJ Reilly]

All investing is a form of speculation. There are NO guarantees.... remember Lucent??

Point taken -- not just Lucent, but Worldcom, Enron, and how many others. Which is why I qualified this observation with the assumption that the investment is fundamentally sound. This of course is one of the tricks of investing.

There are three firm rules of successful investing -- unfortunately, nobody knows what they are!

One thing I can say with confidence though is that for small investors, getting caught up in the fear-greed continuum is a sure way to get scorched.

[Sun Baked]

Apple is also one of the few companies running the old blue chip fundamentals.

They fixed the company by eliminating debt and reducing cost, they didn't follow the current public models of buying market share and growth with debt.

Or in the case of Lucent, spin off underperforming division "holding the company back"

While there is some speculation keeping the stock price high, the CEO hasn't fallen into the Wallstreet trap and grabbing at all straws for more revenue nor is he looking at listening to the currents version of Chainsaw Al that say they can quadruple the stock price.

Fundamentals are there to keep the company sound long term.

But, market darlings tend to get punished more than other companies if they don't maintain the markets expected growth.

[megfilmworks]

There are three firm rules of successful investing -- unfortunately, nobody knows what they are!


LOL, quote of the day!:)