To the many motorists on this forum... [Archive]

PowerFullMac

Jul 7, 2008, 09:47 AM

remmy

Jul 7, 2008, 09:59 AM

The other possibility is to grow crops that can be turned into oil, but this is the possible idea as it would mean farms producing petrol instead of food, forests being cleared for this.

I think engines will get super efficient so that the fuel will last longer. Some of the new engines being manufactured are still more efficient than allot of the hybrids in mpg.

twoodcc

Jul 7, 2008, 10:14 AM

i think the oil engine will be here for a good while. like the poster above me, i think the engines will continue to get more efficient.

but hopefully we'll have an alternative to oil, but it will take a good while. companies are working on it though

PlaceofDis

Jul 7, 2008, 10:20 AM

PowerFullMac

Jul 7, 2008, 10:24 AM

http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?t=511215
http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?t=473961
http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?t=507336

do we need more threads on gas and its effects?

Yes, this thread is mainly about the future of engines and such, they are about Ethonal and what price we are paying TODAY.

iGav

Jul 7, 2008, 10:25 AM

What do you think the future holds?

Smaller, lighter, simpler cars that are devoid of needless toys, and that are powered by a number of different means, depending on specific localised geographical, environmental and technological resources, whilst still being versatile, capable and engaging to both own and drive.

Also, what do you think will happen to fuel pricing? Do you think there is just a temporary phase

The current increase in pricing is almost solely down to speculative investing.

sn00pie

Jul 7, 2008, 10:27 AM

I think that people do have a solution for all of our oil needs and problems. It's just it's probably been bought out and put on the shelf. If BMW can produce a hydrogen 7-series with the only "emission" being water vapour, I'm sure someone has done better.

I believe someone down in the states got his 1991 Ford Mustang with 5.0L V8 with over 400HP to get 110mpg... google that article if you want to read it.

Why don't they stick solar panels on the roof of a Toyota Prius? It would re-charge itself 24/7 and you probably wouldn't even need the gas engine inside it. :)

Lord Blackadder

Jul 7, 2008, 10:31 AM

PowerFullMac

Jul 7, 2008, 10:35 AM

I think that people do have a solution for all of our oil needs and problems. It's just it's probably been bought out and put on the shelf. If BMW can produce a hydrogen 7-series with the only "emission" being water vapour, I'm sure someone has done better.

I believe someone down in the states got his 1991 Ford Mustang with 5.0L V8 with over 400HP to get 110mpg... google that article if you want to read it.

What? A car that only emmits water vapor?!?! :eek:

That Ford Mustang thing (http://www.leftlanenews.com/best-mechanic-ever-ohio-man-tunes-ford-mustang-to-produce-400-horsepower-and-return-110-mpg.html) is very cool!

velocityg4

Jul 7, 2008, 11:08 AM

What? A car that only emmits water vapor?!?! :eek:

That Ford Mustang thing (http://www.leftlanenews.com/best-mechanic-ever-ohio-man-tunes-ford-mustang-to-produce-400-horsepower-and-return-110-mpg.html) is very cool!
As I recall the hydrogen powered cars have been around for quite a while they just have not been produced because of the cost of the things which I am sure has gone down a lot. Also the severe lack of infrastructure for refueling.

Another caveat is to produce hydrogen fuel from water quickly takes a lot of electricity. Which the US would need many more powerplants to handle the production of hydrogen for the millions of cars in the US alone. Not to mention the rest of the world.

I also would not want to be anywhere near the car if the tank should be punctured in an accident near a fire. Just think of a Semi truck with 200 gallons in its side tanks:eek:.

Ugg

Jul 7, 2008, 12:00 PM

The current increase in pricing is almost solely down to speculative investing.

Not true. The plummeting dollar, plummeting output in Mexico, the North Sea as well as other fields along with skyrocketing demand in Brazil, India and China all play a large part. Israel and the US are making a lot of noises about bombing Iran. If that happens prices will absolutely skyrocket. Not to mention the lack of investment in Russia and Venezuela.

Futures trading is based on what might happen in the future. One thing we know for sure is that a lack of investment couple with the enormous amount of investment needed for Brazil's deep sea oil reserves means that future production increases are a long way out.

Why don't they stick solar panels on the roof of a Toyota Prius? It would re-charge itself 24/7 and you probably wouldn't even need the gas engine inside it. :)

Link (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7634533)

Uhh, I don't know of anyplace where the sun shines 24 hours a day. Are people supposed to park under streetlights at night?

Anyway, Toyota is doing it but it's more of a symbolic move. They'd have to make the car out of balsa and feathers before it would be light enough to be totally powered by solar.

The ICE is going to be around for awhile, it's just going to get smaller and more efficient. In another five years Hummers will be extinct.

LumbermanSVO

Jul 7, 2008, 12:11 PM

Just think of a Semi truck with 200 gallons in its side tanks:eek:.

That isn't nearly enough fuel, you'd be filling the thing up every day! Gimme at least 300 :D

Thanatoast

Jul 7, 2008, 01:34 PM

I think gasoline will be around a while, yet. As mentioned above, for luxury if nothing else. Barring an invasion of Iran, I also foresee gas prices remaining high until the Congress starts making serious moves to do something regarding alternative energy, at which point gas will magically become cheap again.

It'll take at least 30 years for neighborhoods in the US to begin to be reconfigured to support higher density and multiple zoning (commercial, residential, industrial). Society itself will have to adjust to make transit more available and long car trips less necessary.

hulugu

Jul 7, 2008, 01:35 PM

I can guarantee that gasoline and diesel cars will still be on the road and in production in 50 years. What WILL change is that they will be joined in the market by increasing numbers of cars using alternative fuels and energy sources.

This is especially true of sports cars and hyper luxury cars. They will stay with gasoline much longer since they are focused on performance and relatively few in number.

I'd expect that even sports cars will make the transition to electric engines simply because they're generally ahead of the technology curve. While there may be some outliers sticking to gasoline/diesel engines, the majority of vehicles can make the transition in the next 25 years. I'd like to call the gasoline engine an anachronistic craft by 2050, equal to people building replicas of Stagecoaches and Colt Peacemakers.

Badandy

Jul 7, 2008, 01:39 PM

The current increase in pricing is almost solely down to speculative investing.

That's ridiculous. Worse yet, politicians (including Barack Obama), seem to believe this oft repeated fallacy.

That's all I have to say.

Lord Blackadder

Jul 7, 2008, 01:40 PM

I'd expect that even sports cars will make the transition to electric engines simply because they're generally ahead of the technology curve. While there may be some outliers sticking to gasoline/diesel engines, the majority of vehicles can make the transition in the next 25 years. I'd like to call the gasoline engine an anachronistic craft by 2050, equal to people building replicas of Stagecoaches and Colt Peacemakers.

But internal combustion engines are not inherently less efficient or "green" than an electric motor, and at the moment (especially in the context of performance cars) they are more flexible and have a superior power to weight ratio.

obeygiant

Jul 7, 2008, 02:04 PM

Not true. The plummeting dollar, plummeting output in Mexico, the North Sea as well as other fields along with skyrocketing demand in Brazil, India and China all play a large part.

This morning the dollar was stronger and a barrel of oil went down five dollars.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices, after hitting a record high last week, fell more than $5 a barrel Monday as the dollar gained strength and traders reacted to an apparent easing of Mideast tensions.

Light, sweet crude for August delivery fell $5.71 to $139.58 a barrel at 11:54 a.m. ET on the New York Mercantile Exchange....

Dollar: Oil prices were also being pulled down Monday by the dollar as currency investors pushed up the value of the greenback.

The dollar was up 4% against the 15-nation euro as the top eight economic powers, known as G-8 nations.

Oil is traded in dollars, and a weaker U.S. currency can make crude oil contracts less expensive for foreign investors.

mrkramer

Jul 7, 2008, 02:56 PM

I can guarantee that gasoline and diesel cars will still be on the road and in production in 50 years. What WILL change is that they will be joined in the market by increasing numbers of cars using alternative fuels and energy sources.

This is especially true of sports cars and hyper luxury cars. They will stay with gasoline much longer since they are focused on performance and relatively few in number.

I agree with you that in 50 years there will still be gasoline and diesel cars in production, but I think that sports cars will be some of the first to go all electric since the people who buy them are willing to pay the money to get them before prices go down. There already is one electric sports car in production that I know of. (http://www.teslamotors.com/)

mactastic

Jul 7, 2008, 02:58 PM

This morning the dollar was stronger and a barrel of oil went down five dollars.
Exactly. As the dollar weakens, oil costs more. As it strengthens, oil costs less. That is, I believe, what Ugg was saying, and what you seem to be confirming for him.

There's also that "fear premium" being built into the cost of every barrel right now...

Much Ado

Jul 7, 2008, 03:02 PM

For perspective: 50 years ago, Kruschev was sworn in as the Soviet Premier, and Castro launched his assault on Havana. Given how much has happened to the world since then, I wish you all good luck in predicted what life will be like in 2058.

Lord Blackadder

Jul 7, 2008, 03:08 PM

but I think that sports cars will be some of the first to go all electric since the people who buy them are willing to pay the money to get them before prices go down. There already is one electric sports car in production that I know of. (http://www.teslamotors.com/)

I disagree; switching to electrics is a major paradigm shift for collectors and enthusiasts who are in love with the internal combustion engine. It may be a bridge too far for those people.

Besides, fuel cell cars may be the better option in the long run.

maestro55

Jul 7, 2008, 03:28 PM

I am going to have to agree with those few who feel that the need for fossil fuel will still be there even over the next 50 years. I mean I will probably have my car atleast for the next 5 or 6 years and it uses fossil fuels and I imagine that there are people who are buying cars and trucks today who will drive them for another 10 or even 20 years. And imagine they will be making trucks that run off fossil fuels for quite awhile.

Bio-diesel is a great idea, but as mentioned it requires crops that could instead be used to feed the world. Fossil fuels will eventually be all gone, and of course I will be dead by the time that we see the end of oil. Till then there will be a number of us that struggle as the lower and now the middle class have been struggling for decades with the cost of energy. If not for transportation but to heat and cool our homes and power our luxuries.

I mean sure we can get better engines, but the cost of those vehicles will be more and less people will buy them as they will turn to alternative means of transportation. When there are less cars on the road than thousands of people who work in the auto industry will be out of jobs.

The fact of the matter is, does anyone have a real plan that doesn't screw some sector of society?

Sun Baked

Jul 7, 2008, 04:23 PM

I disagree; switching to electrics is a major paradigm shift for collectors and enthusiasts who are in love with the internal combustion engine. It may be a bridge too far for those people.

Besides, fuel cell cars may be the better option in the long run.

I think Michael Kadie/HST has been well received with the electric Shelby Cobra and the high performance electric Mustang.

They can snag some of the performance enthusiasts with these cars, but not those that love to tinker and keep the cars running -- like a Leno.

While the fist 10 Cobras went quick at $130k, it should be interesting to see where their sales of a $80k mustang conversion falls for 300HP and 1000ft-lb torque for 110 miles.

a104375

Jul 7, 2008, 04:28 PM

If BMW can produce a hydrogen 7-series with the only "emission" being water vapour,

The only problem with hydrogen is that to get it you have to split the hydrogen and oxygen molecules which currently is done either with electricity or gas, electricity is only as good as how its produced if its main source is burning fossil fuels nothing has been accomplished, which leaves solar, wind, hydro, and nuclear for power to split it or burning gas directly to get the hydrogen

Prof.

Jul 7, 2008, 04:34 PM

I'll be amazed if the human race survives another 100 years let alone 150 years.

Badandy

Jul 7, 2008, 04:57 PM

I'll be amazed if the human race survives another 100 years let alone 150 years.

Wow, that is shocking. I can't even begin to guess what is going through your mind that you'd not only even think this, but that you'd actually believe it. Not only is it an incredibly naive viewpoint considering what the human race has overcome in the past, it seems like a pretty sad opinion to hold.

EDIT: And do you know what you even just said? You just said that you don't know if there will be any humans in the universe by the time your grandkids are middle aged.

hulugu

Jul 7, 2008, 05:11 PM

But internal combustion engines are not inherently less efficient or "green" than an electric motor, and at the moment (especially in the context of performance cars) they are more flexible and have a superior power to weight ratio.

That's true today. But, I'm not sure how long this will remain true. First, this assumes that electric engine don't improve and that new designs (such as placing electric motors in the wheels) aren't successful enough to allow dramatic changes in vehicle design. For the environmental or 'green' aspect, the electric car offers more shear advantages than the ICE model over the long-term if the electricity is generated in a low-footprint manner. Obviously, an electric car topped off by a coal-fired plant may not be as green as a really good ICE car.

I disagree; switching to electrics is a major paradigm shift for collectors and enthusiasts who are in love with the internal combustion engine. It may be a bridge too far for those people.

Besides, fuel cell cars may be the better option in the long run.

Collectors and enthusiasts will want ICE cars, but that's a limited group of people. Maybe comparing it to Stagecoaches was flippant, but at some point driving an ICE car will be an act of creative anachronism.

glocke12

Jul 7, 2008, 05:17 PM

I read that there are about 150 years of oil left, but with fuel prices rising (they have risen 40% in the last 6 months alone!) and big car companies like Audi and BMW working on electric cars and other alternate powered cars, what do you think the future holds? Do you think petrol will be completely replaced by electricity or something in a few years, or do you believe the petrol powered internal combustion engine still has a long way to go before it dies?

Also, what do you think will happen to fuel pricing? Do you think there is just a temporary phase at the moment and price will not continue to go up or maybe even go down, or do you think it will continue to rise until we are forced to pay stupid double figure numbers for our dinosaur juice?

Post your opinions here!

I dont think we will be seeing widescale distribution of cars that use a source of energy other than petroleum for another decade or so. I think we will see SMALLER cars on the market that use the petrol powered internal combustion engine before we see electric cars or anything like that.

I dont have anything to back this up, other than a gut instinct, but as long as there is oil in the ground, I think that big oil, and friends of big oil will prevent the newer technologies from coming to market.

As for gas prices, hard to say what will happen, but this should be an interesting winter. Home heating oil is currently double what it was last year in the states. My house uses heating oil, but I wont be able to afford it, I am having a pellet stove installed. I also make decent money, and I hate to think what people who make less than I do will make out this winter.

j26

Jul 7, 2008, 05:20 PM

I'd say performance motorcycles will remain petrol driven, although scoots and commuter bikes will probably all be electric.

Prof.

Jul 7, 2008, 06:32 PM

EDIT: And do you know what you even just said? You just said that you don't know if there will be any humans in the universe by the time your grandkids are middle aged.
I'm gay. I won't be having any kids which means I won't have any grandchildren.

Cassie

Jul 7, 2008, 06:52 PM

I'm gay. I won't be having any kids which means I won't have any grandchildren.

But what makes you think we'll be gone (as a species) in 150 years? I'd give a 300 year minimum for the human race at this point, but it's likely we'll survive much longer.

Badandy

Jul 7, 2008, 08:20 PM

I'm gay. I won't be having any kids which means I won't have any grandchildren.

Adoption.

hulugu

Jul 7, 2008, 11:03 PM

But what makes you think we'll be gone (as a species) in 150 years? I'd give a 300 year minimum for the human race at this point, but it's likely we'll survive much longer.

We're like cockroaches, we'll survive just about anything. ;)

I'd say baring some major act of god, such as large asteroid or unknown plague, humanity will survive well into the next millennium. The key will be whether we are doing better or worse than we art now. That's the major question, IMHO.

We have to make sure our future is better than our present.

Prof.

Jul 7, 2008, 11:53 PM

Adoption.
Nope. I don't want children.

Lord Blackadder

Jul 8, 2008, 12:11 PM

Nope. I don't want children.

Why worry then? You'll be long dead by the time the you-know-what hits the fan.

wonga1127

Jul 8, 2008, 03:10 PM

Smaller, lighter, simpler cars that are devoid of needless toys.
I agree completely, when you don't have sat-nav, 4WD, 2000 seatbealts and 80 airbags, automatic transmissions, AC, all that garbage you don't really need, car weight dramatically decreases and efficency goes up.

I drive a 1999 Saturn S-Series, with absolutely no bells and whistles, and i can manage 35-40 mpg easily by driving to maximize fuel efficiency.

hulugu

Jul 8, 2008, 04:55 PM

I agree completely, when you don't have sat-nav, 4WD, 2000 seatbealts and 80 airbags, automatic transmissions, AC, all that garbage you don't really need, car weight dramatically decreases and efficency goes up.

I drive a 1999 Saturn S-Series, with absolutely no bells and whistles, and i can manage 35-40 mpg easily by driving to maximize fuel efficiency.

The removal of the automatic transmission and four-wheel drive would have the biggest benefit because of weight, but many options are fairly light. The problem has been the inclusion of beefed-up truck frames in many SUVs which requires more metal for the body and a larger engine.

Interestingly, according to this article (http://green.yahoo.com/blog/ecogeek/603/mercedes-to-cut-petroleum-out-of-lineup-by-2015.html), Mercedes is considering cutting petroleum out of it's lineup by 2015.

Desertrat

Jul 8, 2008, 07:38 PM

glocke12, the only thing that "prevents" alternative-power vehicles from coming into the marketplace is profitability.

A little less Ameri/Euro centrism, please. No matter how much we quit SUVs and get into Honda Civics, the demand for oil and its products, worldwide, will continue to strain the output-capability of oil producers.

And if anybody thinks that speculation is in any way the cause of high prices for oil, they shouldn't have any say-so in US government policy. Speculation might be contributory to some $25/bbl, as some estimates have held--and even that is itself a speculation. :) Regardless, whatever we do here to discourage it will merely move the money to England; if the speculators there are inhibited, they'll move their money to Dubai--and Dubai is well on its way to becoming the world's financial center, already.

'Rat

solvs

Jul 10, 2008, 01:19 PM

the demand for oil and its products, worldwide, will continue to strain the output-capability of oil producers.

Again, output has gone up 2% while use has gone up only 1.5% (and actually dropped since then thanks to the higher prices worldwide) and refineries are nowhere near capacity.

And why more drilling probably won't help (http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080721/lookout).