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MacBytes
Jan 3, 2004, 05:45 PM
Category: Opinion/Interviews
Link: Two Steps Forward, Two Steps Back: Bob's Predictions for 2004 (http://www.macbytes.com/link.php?sid=20040103184535)

Posted on MacBytes.com (http://www.macbytes.com)

Approved by arn

Flowbee
Jan 3, 2004, 05:57 PM
Wal-Mart's entry into the music download business changes everything, and will undoubtedly take the leadership away from Apple.

Is this a joke?

arn
Jan 3, 2004, 05:59 PM
heh

dunno... half of his predictions are on the order of "time will continue to march forward"

arn

simX
Jan 3, 2004, 06:00 PM
Originally posted by arn
heh

dunno... half of his predictions are on the order of "time will continue to march forward"

arn

No kidding. This guy seems to have an attitude of presumptuousness, and then he just makes a bunch of vague predictions. For example, is it REALLY that hard to say that we won't see a PowerMac G6 in 2004? I mean, get a life already. That's like saying that Microsoft won't ship Longhorn in 2004. :rolleyes:

nuckinfutz
Jan 3, 2004, 06:16 PM
7) 2004 will be a crucial year for streaming media. First, there is the Burst.com case against Microsoft. Burst will win unless Microsoft settles first, which I think will happen. If Microsoft buys Burst or takes an exclusive Burst license, it could mean the end for Real and Apple, both of which also are infringing Burst patents. Someone is going to come out of this a big winner. I just don't know who it is.


Yikes that's true. Software patents rear their ugly heads again.

12) Wal-Mart's entry into the music download business changes everything, and will undoubtedly take the leadership away from Apple. This wouldn't bother Apple if Wal-Mart would support its file standards so Wal-Mart music can play on iPods, but that won't happen. In order to compete for what really counts (iPod sales, not music downloads), Apple MIGHT start to support other file formats. No guarantee on that. What IS guaranteed is that Apple will introduce a cheaper iPod using flash memory instead of a hard drive. Oh, and for next Christmas expect a video iPod, which is essentially a hard drive with a dedicated DV encoder/decoder and a FireWire interface. You'll be able to record video direct to the hard drive then edit from that same drive, completely eliminating tape. The logical follow-on from Apple would be a complete QuickTime video camera, but I don't see that until 2005.

This will NOT come true regarding Wallmart. $.88 cent tracks mean nothing to me and frankly I doubt the typical Wal-mart customer is frankly all that savvy to have portable Digimusic players become frequent downloaders. Cringley look at the Clientele before you make this bold claim. Video iPods are not going to happen. Every video device with less than a 3" screen has gone nowhere. 2004 will not be any different.

13) No Apple G6 in 2004, and the company won't sell nearly as many G5s as it hopes.

They will sell enough. Look for 2004 to be the year of Apple Software. By years end I expect no more than 4 new Apple applications that don't exist today. Apple finally realize that software is the glue that will keep the hardware installed in Edu and Enterprise. Look for the further erosion of the relationship between Apple and Adobe.

Apple will make another Music/DT Video acquisition. There are plenty of companies on the "selling block" and Apple will dig deep and grab at least one. Purchasing Alias from SGI would be nice or Discreet for video.


2004 is going to be about positioning. I don't expect much grounbreaking things. Many companies had to fight to survive the last two years. We will see economic and HiTech growth this year and the big projects will come back.

latergator116
Jan 3, 2004, 06:16 PM
Originally posted by simX
No kidding. This guy seems to have an attitude of presumptuousness, and then he just makes a bunch of vague predictions. For example, is it REALLY that hard to say that we won't see a PowerMac G6 in 2004? I mean, get a life already. That's like saying that Microsoft won't ship Longhorn in 2004. :rolleyes:

Im not sure of a company that releases new major processor's a year after another.

latergator116
Jan 3, 2004, 06:19 PM
....promptly broken and that 802.11a wireless networking would be overtaken by 802.11g. Right both times.

Doesnt' he mean taken over by 802.11b? 802.11g hasn't really TAKEN OVER anything yet.

Nermal
Jan 3, 2004, 07:11 PM
I think he means that G is more popular than A, even though it's nowhere near as popular as B.

Remember, B came before A.

latergator116
Jan 3, 2004, 07:24 PM
Originally posted by Nermal
I think he means that G is more popular than A, even though it's nowhere near as popular as B.

Remember, B came before A.

Oops. I forgot the fact that b came before a. I just knew that a was a flop.

Blaaze
Jan 3, 2004, 09:15 PM
eh..I don't like this guy...his predictions don't impress me too much..

MrMacMan
Jan 4, 2004, 12:17 AM
This guys apple predictions are a little... weak.

He also says Linux will either be doomed... or grow... SCO means nothing they have no case.

The 'G6' wasn't coming soon anyway.

The Cell processor... might come.

Wal-Mart's Customers don't buy iPods really anyway... (nor other devices)... its middle america, AOL'ers and 56k rules.

No.

Waluigi
Jan 4, 2004, 12:55 AM
Robert Cringely seems to be very knowledgeable in the business and political side of the tech industry, but not at all on the actual products or on the consumer.

Here's hoping to a great 2004 for Apple!

--Waluigi