Obama/Biden shoot ahead in latest CBS polls, 8 point lead

[Cleverboy]

I'd just finished hearing that they were statistically tied, and that the top of the ticket comparisons alone had Obama leading by a smidge. Suddenly, Obama/Biden shoot ahead? Crazy. I like the news on the Independent front especially. Seems like McCain has started having people lose faith in him for some reason.
Democratic nominee Barack Obama's lead over Republican John McCain has grown after the Democratic convention, which 71 percent of Americans say they watched. Obama and his running mate Joe Biden now lead McCain and Sarah Palin 48 percent to 40 percent, according to the latest CBS News poll.

The eight-point lead for the Democratic ticket is up from Obama’s three-point lead before the convention. But there are still a significant number of voters who have yet to firmly make up their minds.

Before the Democratic convention, McCain enjoyed a 12-point advantage with independent voters, but now Obama leads among this group 43 percent to 37 percent. Obama's lead among women has also grown to 14 points (50 percent to 36 percent), and the Democrat maintained the lead he had before the convention among voters who supported Senator Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries.

The poll shows an increase in the number of Obama voters who are enthusiastic about him. Sixty-seven percent of Obama voters say they enthusiastically support him, which is up from 48 percent who said so before the convention. About a quarter of McCain’s backers are enthusiastic about him--unchanged from before the Democratic convention.

Sixty-three percent of registered voters say Obama understands their needs and problems, while just 41 percent say that about McCain. And after the Democratic convention, 58 percent of voters say Obama is "tough enough," which is up from 48 percent in early August.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/01/opinion/polls/main4405106.shtml

And in the "room for improvement" category:
Though Obama has seen his lead grow, there are still areas where he has room to improve. The latest CBS News poll shows no change in the percentage of registered voters who say Obama has prepared himself well enough for the job-- a sentiment in which McCain has held a large advantage. But fewer voters now say Obama is not prepared for the job of President than before the convention.

Although 50 percent of voters now say that Obama has made it clear what he would do as president (up from 41 percent), 44 percent still say the Democratic nominee has not made it clear. Full poll details in PDF form:
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/Aug08bPostDemConv.pdf

Seems like the initial surprise of the Palin announcement has worn off. Curious to see whether the GOP gets a bounce after the convention or whether its all downhill from here.

~ CB

[és:]

All I saw was 'Obama... shoot... head' - my heart was in my mouth.

[gibbz]

You can see more polls here:

http://realclearpolitics.com/polls/

[JG271]

Interesting indeed, and good news for Obama supporters. Gallup poll also put him 8 points ahead.

I don't think the GOP convention will boost poll ratings all that much, i can't think of anything particularly new and groundbreaking that they can do or say. However, the convention might increase or decrease Republican voters' doubts about Sarah Palin, if that is what the low poll ratings have been caused by.

[Macky-Mac]

historically there's always been a "convention bounce" in the polls which fades away in a few weeks. We can expect the republicans to get a bounce from their convention too, so don't be too shocked if the polls look different than today in a couple of weeks

[rdowns]

Polls this early are meaningless. Talk to me in October.

[Cleverboy]

historically there's always been a "convention bounce" in the polls which fades away in a few weeks. We can expect the republicans to get a bounce from their convention too, so don't be too shocked if the polls look different than today in a couple of weeksPeople had been saying that the Democratic bounce had evaporated after the first day. Things seem to be changing so quickly in the race though. This is almost like watching a gigantic soap-opera. I SWARE to GOD, if someone gets all the photos to this and creates a gigantic picture book from Primaries to Inauguration... and talks in depth about everything that happened... I mean WOW. This is the greatest story ever told... although, if you said, "true story", people would have a hard time believing you.Polls this early are meaningless. Talk to me in October.This is true. :)

~ CB

[BoyBach]

Polls this early are meaningless. Talk to me in October.


I agree, if I were Prime Minister part of my reform of the election process in the UK would be the banning of polls in the run up to elections. They serve no purpose other than to give a lazy journalist something to write / talk about instead of doing some proper journalism / reporting.

[Macky-Mac]

People had been saying that the Democratic bounce had evaporated after the first day. ....

either that, or they were saying it hadn't even shown up yet on the first day!

For a longer read about the "convention bounce" you might enjoy what-convention-bounce-looks-like (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/what-convention-bounce-looks-like.html) from a site started by some guys that are also into analyzing baseball statistics

[Thomas Veil]

Polls. :mad: I'd seen the Gallup poll that had Obama eight points ahead. Then I saw the CNN poll that had him only one point ahead. These guys are all over the place.

And we have to remember that presidential polls are rather fuzzy things. You can win them and still lose the electoral vote.

The other thing that pisses me off is that in that link gibbz provided, you can see that the vast majority feel the country is going the wrong direction, 81-18 (or thereabouts). Now, I don't expect Obama to have that kind of lead, but this certainly shouldn't be a close race.

[sushi]

Polls this early are meaningless. Talk to me in October.
True.

Kind of like a close horse race with each horse taking the lead, loosing it, taking the lead, loosing it ... well you get the idea.

[Cleverboy]

The other thing that pisses me off is that in that link gibbz provided, you can see that the vast majority feel the country is going the wrong direction, 81-18 (or thereabouts). Now, I don't expect Obama to have that kind of lead, but this certainly shouldn't be a close race. Well... look at how Palin is being questioned about the crazy "love-child" rumor. There are DOZENS of stories just like that for Barack Obama, including one I was just researching that has a Hillary Clinton supporter filing a lawsuit suggesting that Obama is not a citizen, and that his mother flew out of the country and had him there... and that he declared himself an Indonesian at one point in his adult life (for whateve that means). I'm reading this, and I'm sighing and scratching my head. With such RAMPANT uncertainty being introduced into the campaign, the amount of xenophobia being unleashed has GOT to have a significant affect. I'm pretty impressed, but "race alone" isn't enough. People need to keep pointing to other people he's had passing associations to and shout, "Look! He's consorted with devils!" I mean, really. I'm sure if people wsihed to play that same game with McCain (a dangerous game to be sure) they wouldn't have to go very far. It's just all so inane though.

We can only trust that America is smarter than that. Smart enough to vote on POLICIES and not PREJUDICE.

~ CB

[mactastic]

Polls this early are meaningless. Talk to me in October.
Polls are not predictors. They are simply a snapshot of the electorate in time. They can also be a trend indicator when the same poll is checked over time. They are not meaningless; but they also won't tell you who's going to win in November.

[Cleverboy]

Polls are not predictors. They are simply a snapshot of the electorate in time. They can also be a trend indicator when the same poll is checked over time. They are not meaningless; but they also won't tell you who's going to win in November.Exactly. A friend of mine has the same opinion as rdowns about polls, but I find that trends are pretty important, because they guage reactions to the various events currently happening AS they're happening.

I'm always amazed when they can go back and check the same poll across multiple years and occassions... because you can't go back and invent a question that was never asked in previous years. You generally have one shot to establish a longrunning indicator. Weather patterns are affected by this affect too. I hear there's a guy that's recorded the daily temperature at one spot in America for over 2 decades, and everybody keeps coming back to him for his data.

~ CB

[OutThere]

State by state polls are where it's at. I hate national polls. They'll be relevant when we have a national election by popular vote.

electoral-vote.com (http://electoral-vote.com/)

[solvs]

I'll believe it when I see it. There are plenty of reasons McCain isn't doing worse, and Obama isn't doing better that are obvious that we don't have to go over too much again. Needless to say, most are not logical nor based on legitimate reasons. McCain is a maverick, even though he isn't, and Obama is a Muslim, even though he isn't, and still wondering why that somehow equals bad even if he was. Palin might help with the evangelicals, but she could hurt too, as we saw that misogyny is almost as bad as racism. Maybe even worse. Biden seems to be doing ok, and those speeches were amazing. Really hit all the right spots. The GOP couldn't do too much with what they had, but the response to Gustav and suddenly wanting to take the high road might help them a little. Also, the media helped to make this more of an even race than it should have been, hitting Obama for things that are still sticking while ignoring McCain's constant screw ups. They like controversy, and couldn't make things too easy for him. A landslide is boring.

Of course, as has been said, we did vote for Bush twice, and even though the GOP is wildly unpopular right now, they could easily still win.

[Thomas Veil]

electoral-vote.com (http://electoral-vote.com/)* Whew! * Let's hope the lead widens even more.