Iowa caucuses

[Sayhey]

The latest poll in Iowa has Kerry in the lead with just behind him, Gephardt and Dean in a dead heat. Edwards is within the margin of error of the poll as well, so it looks like no one knows who is on top.

DES MOINES, Iowa (Reuters) - The Democratic presidential race in Iowa is a virtual three-way tie between John Kerry, Howard Dean and Richard Gephardt four days before the state's caucuses, according to a Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll released on Thursday.

In the latest rolling three-day poll, Kerry registered 21.6 percent with Dean and Gephardt both at 20.9 percent. North Carolina Sen. John Edwards gained two percentage points to 17.1 percent, well within the poll's margin of error, putting all four top contenders in a statistical tie.

"It's a 3-way tie, and Kerry and Gephardt are now tied among union voters as Dean's labor support slips," Zogby said. With Edwards continuing to gain ground "this race is actually a four-way statistical dead heat. link (http://cnn.netscape.cnn.com/news/story.jsp?floc=FF-RTO-rontz&idq=/ff/story/0002%2F20040115%2F070212438.htm&sc=rontz&photoid=20040114DSM505D)

All this before Moseley-Braun's endorsement of Dean. Looks like Iowa is going to be very interesting.

[mactastic]

Yeah it's coming down to the wire now. Of course the voting bloc in Iowa is hardly representative of the US public at large. That process is such a mess, I can't believe how THAT gets called democracy. 15% minimums for your candidate to be viable, having to stay late to make sure your vote gets registered, being strong-armed all day by various supporters of the different candidates. It's really a party insider game, but because of its timing it gets national prominance. Very strange stuff. On a related note, since I haven't heard from my sister in a little over a week I doubt she (or any of the other staffers) are sleeping much until this is over. On the bright side, we all got John Deere merchandise for Xmas. I got a string of tractor lights and two Deere coffee mugs!:D

[Sayhey]

mac,

I agree this is a very strange system. Polls don't mean a lot in Iowa because it is not who is the most popular choice, but rather who has the best organization that usually wins. Not that the ability to put together a disciplined organization isn't an important thing to know about a candidate, but it would be nice to have it decided by who the most Democrats in the state want. Just think, not too long ago most of the States had caucuses instead of direct primaries.

Iowa and New Hampshire are not an accurate cross section of the US public and they get much too much attention. However, they do tend to winnow the field. By the time we get to the day after South Carolina, I'm betting we are down to 3, maybe 4 candidates. That means that the choice of most of the candidates won't be available to the states like California, New York, Texas, Florida, etc. where most of the people live. Like you said strange system.