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ivan98
Sep 3, 2008, 01:37 AM
Since the new form factor is now as confirmed as rumors can be, and date officially set for 9th Sept (anyone notice this is 9/9, iPhone3G was 7/11 and 8/22), what capacities do you think the new Nano will have?

Current the flash lines are (1,2), (4,8) and (8,16,32) GB for Shuffle, Nano and Touch respectively.

Will we see (2,4), (8,16) and (16,32,64) [multiply by 2] or (4,8), (16,32) and (32,64) [multiply by 4]?

For laptop CPU, Apple seems to follow the practice of using the same price point; CPU of xMHz costing $z in laptop rev1 will get CPU of yMHz costing the same $z in rev2. If this COGS structure holds, we just need to know how much flash RAM price has dropped for the past year (Nano was last released in Sep 07).



EricNau
Sep 3, 2008, 01:43 AM
I suspect we'll see the 1 GB shuffle dropped, with the 2 GB taking its place at the $50 price point. 4 GB just seems too large for a shuffle.

As for the Nano, I suspect we'll see 8 GB and 16 GB.

Finally, as for the touch, I'm not expecting any capacity changes (except possibly dropping the 8 GB), but I surmise we'll see lower prices. At this point, I just can't picture a cost-effective 64 GB touch.

ivan98
Sep 3, 2008, 02:06 AM
This blog post (http://www.denali.com/wordpress/index.php/a/2008/07/15/for_nand_flash_weak_pricing_in_2008_is_n) says a 4x price drop for the past year....

4 GB just seems too large for a shuffle.
You don't mean physically right, cos there're 4GB M2/MicroSD so it's certainly possible. Size aside, it's a "why not?"...

I surmise we'll see lower prices.
With Apple, I'll never assume a price drop, but these days, it's certainly possible.

Which leaves us with the combos:

2x capacity increase
2x capacity increase + price drop
4x capacity increase

Moriarty
Sep 3, 2008, 03:50 AM
A 4GB shuffle won't happen. Honestly... who wants about 100 CD's worth of music on an iPod Shuffle? It would be an absolute nightmare to navigate. Well, you can't. Even at 320kbps, you'd fit about 25 CDs. It's a lot of music for something without a screen. People might buy it mindlessly because it's got a bigger capacity, but that sort of size is just redundant.

It's just too big. Even 2GB is quite generous.

All I hope is that they drop the price of the iPod Classic. I've been looking at one for the past couple of months but have held out because of the impending update. If they do nothing to it I'll be really annoyed... but perhaps a reasonably priced 32GB Touch could tempt me. I'd only be able to fit half my music at 128kbps on a 32GB touch, but a lot of it I wouldn't want to listen to on the road anyway.... so the Touch is still tempting. But expensive.

So many choices and they all cost too much money :p

thespyglass
Sep 6, 2008, 06:31 AM
Thanks for this thread.

Need to replace my little 2G Mini asap and was planning to upgrade to a Classic because of the capacity but a Nano is more practical for someone like me who uses the thing at the gym/running outside, as well just in general while out and and about.

16GB+ could really tempt me.

KJmoon117
Sep 6, 2008, 08:11 AM
Thanks for this thread.

Need to replace my little 2G Mini asap and was planning to upgrade to a Classic because of the capacity but a Nano is more practical for someone like me who uses the thing at the gym/running outside, as well just in general while out and and about.

16GB+ could really tempt me.

I share the same view, I'm going to replace by dying iPod Nano 8GB (2nd Gen) and the current line of Nanos has been a little frustrating due to their capacity.

If they do come out with a 16GB Nano, I might be really tempted to buy as well; however, I still have my eye on the 80GB Classic. The only problem is that I'm a runner... Ehh, it's a little frustrating choice for me at the moment. Hopefully Sept. 9th will change that.

iMacmatician
Sep 6, 2008, 10:13 AM
Most likely, 8 GB for $149 and 16 GB for $199.

The Killer Fuzz
Sep 6, 2008, 02:52 PM
Most likely, 8 GB for $149 and 16 GB for $199.

Yeah, i would go with that but considering what apple has done with the last 2 generations, it would be 8gb silver then 16gb, in colors.

WordLife565
Sep 7, 2008, 09:40 AM
I'd expect no higher than 16 GB, but most likely, it will stay at a max of 8 GB, so that it won't permeate into iPod touch territory.

sushi
Sep 7, 2008, 09:55 AM
I think that the Nano will be a new form factor and the memory will increase to 8GB and 16GB models.

Although, there has been talk about a price decrease. In that case, we may not see an increase in memory.

As for the Shuffle. If Apple creates a new version that can function as a Thumb Drive, then we'll see bigger capacities. Otherwise, if it is the same model, then only a price drop.

SkyBell
Sep 7, 2008, 05:20 PM
Am I the only one who thinks 12 GB is going to be the top of the line nano?

iTeen
Sep 7, 2008, 05:27 PM
Am I the only one who thinks 12 GB is going to be the top of the line nano?
They don't make 12gb chips.

11800506
Sep 7, 2008, 07:19 PM
I'd say:
Shuffle - 1 GB, 2 GB with a slight price drop
Nano - 8 GB, 16 GB
Touch - Drop the 8 GB, 16, 32 GB fall down a price point with the possible introduction of a 64 GB Touch
Classic - 120 GB, 200 GB (?) - I know they have 120 GB 1.8" drives because of the Zune 120 but I don't know about drives above 160 GB in size

That seems pretty likely.

The Toon Master
Sep 7, 2008, 07:26 PM
We have 12 gazillion topics like this

but anyway, in previous topics it's been mentioned that 32GB Flash Drives and 360GB Hard Drives do not come small enough to fit in iPod or were too expensive to be put in an iPod. That's why it's been mentioned that the iPod Classic will come in 120GB and 240GB models respectivly, which is a decent sized increase and should be cost friendly enough.

I'm also in the camp of who the f would want a 4GB shuffle, but apparently the price drop of the shuffle resulted in really good sales numbers

BoyBach
Sep 7, 2008, 07:28 PM
My prediction is that capacity of the nano range won't change, instead the prices will be heavily reduced.

sushi
Sep 7, 2008, 07:33 PM
Am I the only one who thinks 12 GB is going to be the top of the line nano?
They don't make 12gb chips.
To add, capacities are in powers of 2, so you'll see sizes like these:

1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, etc.

Usually multiple memory slots are filled with the same capacity memories. So you won't see mixed chip capacities such as 12 (8+4), 20 (16+4), etc.

In the case of the Touch and iPhone, the Touch has two memory slots whereas the iPhone only has one. So the Touch will be able to max out at twice the capacity of the iPhone.

Moriarty
Sep 8, 2008, 03:07 AM
If they don't offer the new Nano's in 8GB and 16GB sizes, I'll eat my hat.*


*Actually, I won't eat my hat :). But I will be very surprised if they don't, because an 8GB limit is just too small now to be competitive with other brands that go up to 32GB (which needs two chips, and is more expensive than the Nano should be). And I suspect the 8GB Touch will be dropped.

iCantwait
Sep 8, 2008, 03:31 AM
i should add to my sig somthing about if there is a 4gb shuffle and a 32gb nano i will also put $100 on red.

a 32gb nano would just be stupid, DONT DO IT APPLE. i want an 8gb nano as i already have a 16gb iPhone. But i do hope the lower end nano will come in multi colours as i really want that orange:D

Dublo7
Sep 8, 2008, 04:03 AM
A 64gb Touch would be a must buy for me. I can't imagine how much it's going to cost though :(

iCantwait
Sep 8, 2008, 04:13 AM
A 64gb Touch would be a must buy for me. I can't imagine how much it's going to cost though :(

exactly, hence the lack of release-age

thespyglass
Sep 8, 2008, 11:51 AM
If they do come out with a 16GB Nano, I might be really tempted to buy as well; however, I still have my eye on the 80GB Classic. The only problem is that I'm a runner... Ehh, it's a little frustrating choice for me at the moment. Hopefully Sept. 9th will change that.

Yeah, here's hoping. I'm sure there must be a few of us thinking the same things. If I was minted I'd love a Shuffle or similar just for running and the Classic for everything else, but I'm not, so... yeah.

Hurry up, tomorrow!