Prediction: Apple server chaos on Friday

[mcdj]

This is the first time Apple has officially announced a specific date for an iPhone firmware download. All 1.x updates were sprung upon us with little warning. 2.0 was rumored for July 11th, but Apple never came out and said it. 2.0.1 and 2.0.2 were also largely unannounced.

2.1 is also one of the most anticpated updates yet. Some may argue it's even more so than 2.0 was.

Add to this the fact that with each firmware update, exponentially more people are in posession of an iPhone.

Come this Friday, and who knows exactly when, there could be literally hundreds of thousands of people hammering Apple's servers for 2.1, the likes of which haven't been seen since 7/11/08, when the iPhone crush flatlined both Apple and AT&T activation servers for several hours. How many more people have iPhones today compared to 7/11? A LOT more.

Announcing the exact date of the release was a big mistake IMO.

/prediction

[tangledweb16]

This is the first time Apple has officially announced a specific date for an iPhone firmware download. All 1.x updates were sprung upon us with little warning. 2.0 was rumored for July 11th, but Apple never came out and said it. 2.0.1 and 2.0.2 were also largely unannounced.

2.1 is also one of the most anticpated updates yet. Some may argue it's even more so than 2.0 was.

Add to this the fact that with each firmware update, exponentially more people are in posession of an iPhone.

Come this Friday, and who knows exactly when, there could be literally hundreds of thousands of people hammering Apple's servers for 2.1, the likes of which haven't been seen since 7/11/08, when the iPhone crush flatlined both Apple and AT&T activation servers for several hours. How many more people have iPhones today compared to 7/11? A LOT more.

Announcing the exact date of the release was a big mistake IMO.

/prediction

For all we know, Apple could release a day or two early.

Actually, given Apple's history, I think this is very likely.

[LePigeonBleu]

For all we know, Apple could release a day or two early.

Actually, given Apple's history, I think this is very likely.

Can you show me some Apple history that would point to an early drop?

m

[tangledweb16]

Can you show me some Apple history that would point to an early drop?

m

Well, Apple has been known to release software a day or two early.

The 2.0 software is an example, but that was more of a leak than an early release.

They have released software early though, I promise :D

[saxman]

That may be why they're releasing it on a Friday? Only the dedicated will update (a lot may not have updated to 2.0.2) and the rest will get it later. Also, if it goes boom, less press on the weekend and they could fix any major problems by Monday

[Rybold]

Excellent point. The 2.0 firmware was released a day before it was announced (released for New Zealand, yet U.S. was able to access it before we got the 3G phone), yet somehow, millions of people knew about it. As of today, MILLIONS of 3G iPhones in addition to the already millions of original iPhones (how many originals were made?) are out there in the world.

APPLE BETTER BE READY !!! :eek: :eek: :eek:

[polishmacuser]

this is why they are releasing the ipod touch and itunes updates today so all of it wont go to hell on friday...hopefully but it should work

[Van Wildonher]

Seems to me they only release stuff on Fridays these days.

[ryanwarsaw]

so the servers might be overloaded for a couple hours while the macRumors crowd floods them. The average user won't rush to get this. Some won't even know there is an upgrade until they get texted by their network provided way later.

[superspud]

how does one go about getting this update once its out? i know with my macbook it just automatically pops up with updates... but how does it work with the iphone?

[FJR]

HIGHLY unlikely.

I have 8 friends who have an iPhone and only one of them knew that "let's rock" was about anything other than new nanos, most didn't know anything about it at all.

I told most of them iTunes 8 was out today, they had no clue and probably wouldn't have known until they got the "there is a new version of iTunes available" notice.

I think you are vastly overestimating how much the average iPhone user keeps up with this stuff.

I'd be willing to bet there isn't even 1/2 the traffic as there was on 7/11.

[FJR]

how does one go about getting this update once its out? i know with my macbook it just automatically pops up with updates... but how does it work with the iphone?

when your iPhone is plugged in and connected to iTunes, hit "check for update" on the main iPhone screen that pops up when you plug your iPhone in.

[ryanwarsaw]

HIGHLY unlikely.

I have 8 friends who have an iPhone and only one of them knew that "let's rock" was about anything other than new nanos, most didn't know anything about it at all.

I told most of them iTunes 8 was out today, they had no clue and probably wouldn't have known until they got the "there is a new version of iTunes available" notice.

I think you are vastly overestimating how much the average iPhone user keeps up with this stuff.

I'd be willing to bet there isn't even 1/2 the traffic as there was on 7/11.

oops read your post wrong sorry. I thought you werte saying average users would know. it is too late here I am going to bad LOL

[queshy]

heh not looking forward to the chaos. hopefully I'll be patient enough to wait a day...

[bmwpowere36m3]

Either way, I don't really care... I'm going to give it a week for the "beta" testers to sort it out. Recently Apple's been dropping the ball on updates, so I always wait for others to try it out and then I'll join in on the madness. What's another week anyway with this wonderful :rolleyes: software...

[bmwpowere36m3]

HIGHLY unlikely.

I have 8 friends who have an iPhone and only one of them knew that "let's rock" was about anything other than new nanos, most didn't know anything about it at all.

I told most of them iTunes 8 was out today, they had no clue and probably wouldn't have known until they got the "there is a new version of iTunes available" notice.

I think you are vastly overestimating how much the average iPhone user keeps up with this stuff.

I'd be willing to bet there isn't even 1/2 the traffic as there was on 7/11.

That's because some people have a life, that DOESN'T revolve around Apple ;)

[NeoMayhem]

If as many people are downloading the free HD shows right now as I think they are, then the iPhone update should be fine.

[rannddeee]

If as many people are downloading the free HD shows right now as I think they are, then the iPhone update should be fine.

where are these free hd shows? im looking around itunes and cant find any of them.

edit: nm found them

[archi17]

i don't think so. 2.1 is way less anticipated than 2.0. Because Apple had been advertising 2.0 for ages in advance and it was a huge upgrade (Appstore etc) and everyone wanted it. But 2.1, most of the world would not know about it and not everyone is pressing check for software on itunes constantly waiting to get some bug fixes.

[alchemistmuffin]

Well, Apple FINALLY learned their lesson....
by first letting the iPod touch users upgrade to 2.1, then the iPhone, on Friday, to prevent their xserve servers from EXPLODING.....

[Rybold]

I'm going to give it a week for the "beta" testers to sort it out. Recently Apple's been dropping the ball on updates, so I always wait for others to try it out and then I'll join in on the madness.

Same here. I read the comments on MacRumors first to see what benefits and drawbacks the each update has before I decide to "infect" my phone.

[Rybold]

Burn me once, shame on you! Burn me twice, shame on me! Burn me thrice, I'll ********** kill you!

Haha! Sweet. :D

[warburg]

That's because some people have a life, that DOESN'T revolve around Apple ;)

What do these people do when they're not working?:confused:

[stockcerts]

I have some friends with the Touch....I'll ask them today how their download of 2.1 went yesterday. If the 2.1 update does everything for the Iphone that is stated, well, lets just say I'm kind of excited.

I'm in the habit of charging my phone quite a bit...at home, at work, and in the car. I haven't had a problem with dropped calls, but with bad 3G reception.

[Anuba]

Same here. I read the comments on MacRumors first to see what benefits and drawbacks the each update has before I decide to "infect" my phone.
Normally I would agree, but this is an exception -- 2.0.X is so crappy that you really have nothing to lose by updating to 2.1. Early adopters of 2.1 may be 'beta testers', but those stick with 2.0.2 are alpha testers...
I have some friends with the Touch....I'll ask them today how their download of 2.1 went yesterday. If the 2.1 update does everything for the Iphone that is stated, well, lets just say I'm kind of excited.

I'm in the habit of charging my phone quite a bit...at home, at work, and in the car. I haven't had a problem with dropped calls, but with bad 3G reception.
I have both the Touch and the iPhone and I installed 2.1 on the Touch yesterday, after installing iTunes 8.

So far it's been good. Graphics are faster and smoother, it's back to the same speed as in the 1.X firmware. No lag between screens. Contacts lag is gone. Backup is much faster. Sadly this can't be said about the rest of the sync process, which takes several minutes as usual even when no data has changed. Battery life is considerably better (my Touch has never showed full charge after 12+ hours before).

The only problem I've noticed is that the Pinball RC game (aka Zen Pinball) doesn't work. You get the welcome screen and all the buttons, but there are no game graphics, it's just completely white.

[seedster2]

Doubt we will see chaos.

[Sweetbike40]

I was thinking the same thing. I'm thinking i'll probably wake up at some point in the middle of the night. (fri am...maybe around 3am) and download it!! I'm hoping it will be available then. Probably won't be, but it's worth a look.

[deimos256]

Since i really have no glaring issues with 2.0.2 i think ill wait and see how 2.1 works for everyone else

[blisters]

so the servers might be overloaded for a couple hours while the macRumors losers floods them. The average user won't rush to get this because they actually have lives and don't sit at their computers all day waiting for updates.

fixed.

[t0mat0]

Could easily roll it out as Friday local time, rather than all servers for all countries at once. If they did it at midnight, the hardcore users would get it downloaded, the intrepid before breakfast, then less fanatical casual users getting it later on in the day/week/next time they use itunes and it checks in with the iPhone

[Linuss]

Meh, I know a sizable portion won't be the ones clogging up the lines on Friday....



Unlocked phones FTW!



You should thank us.

[jessica.]

Not announced ... announced. Who the F cares? The load on the servers is always high when new firmware is released.

No one will ever be happy. :rolleyes:

/prediction

[ucfgrad93]

There is absolutely no way I'm going to attempt to download 2.1 this Friday. With all of the chaos of the 2.0 upgrade, I'm going to wait a few days before I upgrade this time.

[FJR]

Meh, I know a sizable portion won't be the ones clogging up the lines on Friday....



Unlocked phones FTW!



You should thank us.


A sizeable portion? I've yet to meet another person in real life with an unlocked iPhone. I'd be willing to bet less than 1% of iPhones in the US are unlocked.

[ogdogg]

The chaos will begin tomorrow night as soon as someone finds the link to download 2.1 from the Apple server (as always).