Kerry surges in NH Polls

[Durandal7]

http://news.bostonherald.com/national/national.bg?articleid=596
By David R. Guarino and Andrew Miga/ BREAKING NEWS

Sen. John F. Kerry has catapulted into a 10-point New Hampshire lead six days before the nation's first primary, bouncing out of Iowa and over longtime frontrunner Howard Dean, according to a new Boston Herald poll.
_____The Massachusetts senator leads Dean 31 percent to 21 percent, with a slipping Wesley K. Clark at 16 percent after skipping the Iowa caucuses.
_____Sen. John Edwards is in fourth place with 11 percent, followed by Sen. Joseph Lieberman with 4 percent. Rev. Al Sharpton and Rep. Dennis Kucinich continue to barely register.
_____Herald pollster R. Kelly Myers called it a ``dramatic turn-around for John Kerry.''
_____``His once fledgling campaign has found new legs and he now finds himself the clear front-runner in this race,'' Myers said.
_____The poll, of 501 likely Democratic primary voters, was taken by RKM Research and Communication Tuesday and yesterday in the immediate aftermath of Kerry's surprise Iowa caucus victory. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percent.
_____The Herald poll is the first two-day sampling since Iowa's vote.

[Sayhey]

This is the first poll I've seen that puts Kerry in the lead, and by 10pts to boot! I found this on the Daily Kos (http://www.dailykos.com/):

Tracking the tracking polls
by kos
Wed Jan 21st, 2004 at 15:10:32 GMT

We've got four tracking polls for NH, so get ready for a barrage of polling fromt the Granite State. Here's the first of that polling. Note that most of this polling was conducted pre-Iowa results, but takes into consideration Kerry's "pre-Iowa bounce".

Still, it's clear Iowa has been huge for Kerry, and not so good for Dean and Clark.


American Research Group

_ _ _1/20-18 _1/19-17 _ _
Dean _ _ 26 _ _ _28
Kerry _ _24 _ _ _20
Clark _ _19 _ _ _18
Edwards _ 9 _ _ _ 8
Lieb _ _ _7 _ _ _ 7


Zogby

_ _ _ 1/18-20
Dean _ _ 25
Kerry _ _23
Clark _ _16
Edwards _ 7
Lieb _ _ _7


Suffolk Univ (2-day rolling sample)


_ _ _1/18-19 _1/17-18 _ _
Dean _ _ 23 _ _ _25
Kerry _ _20 _ _ _19
Clark _ _15 _ _ _19
Edwards _ 6 _ _ _ 5
Lieb _ _ _6 _ _ _ 6


Univ. of New Hampshire

_ _ _ 1/17-19
Dean _ _ 33
Kerry _ _24
Clark _ _18
Edwards _ 8
Lieb _ _ _5


notice all have Dean still in the lead. It would be quite a surge if the poll you cite is correct. Not impossible, but amazing nonetheless. It would show just how soft Dean's support really is, if true. The Dean campaign could be in for a few very rough weeks. If they lose in neighboring New Hampshire, then where their support would be solid in the next coming weeks is beyond me. I think Dean can run solidly in California, but he has to make it that far first.

[Durandal7]

Sayhey, here's another one:
1/22/04
Kerry: %27
Dean: %24
Clark: %15
Edwards: %8
http://www.zogby.com/

That was the latest Zogby tracking poll, not a ten point lead like the other one but it does seem to confirm increasing Kerry support.

[Sayhey]

It looks like most of them now have Kerry in the lead. That is a very big bounce out of Iowa. I think it also has to do with many folks are more than willing to take a second look at Dean and are seeing problems there. Those problems maybe magnified unjustly by his rivals and the media, but that is part of what you have to deal with in getting the nomination. If Dean doesn't turn it around quickly he could be out of the race. That is even more amazing than Kerry's lead. I will be interested in seeing if Clark beats Dean for second in New Hampshire if this keeps up.

[IJ Reilly]

Kerry leading Dean in NH doesn't surprise me very much. Both of them have to do well in New England, or they're cooked.

[Durandal7]

I'm interested to see how John Edwards performs.