View Full Version : What effect do you think the VP debate can have?
abijnk
Sep 27, 2008, 01:22 AM
What effect do you think the VP debate can have?
For my answer, I think the VP debate will further undermine Palin's credibility, but I don't necessarily think it will have a huge effect.
DakotaGuy
Sep 27, 2008, 01:29 AM
Considering McCain's age and his general overall health, I think a lot of people will watch this closely. Most people figure that Joe Biden has the experience and leadership ability to step in on a moments notice, but people will watch Palin closely. They will want to see if she really is the best choice for the position and if she appears to be ready to step in at any moment. If McCain was 10 years younger and did not have any health issues people might not put as much importance on it.
If she has the same performance in the debate that she had during Katie Couric's interview it could very well be a game changer.
Ugg
Sep 27, 2008, 01:30 AM
Palin will come up a loser in a big way. Once it sets in that old and tired McCain could possibly die in office and she would become president, I think a lot of people will end up voting for Obama.
63dot
Sep 27, 2008, 01:31 AM
My guess is that Biden will wipe Palin out but this will have little effect on the outcome. The whole crux of this will be on what Obama and McCain say in the next debate or two, and what they say to the press. All scandals, if any, are out, and people know the two have separate visions.
A small percentage of this election's moderates may vote one way or the other based on the VP debate if they 1) really think they already know McCain and Obama, and are 2) really on the fence on this election.
So far, Palin seemed to initially help for a week, but then seemed to be a liability for McCain. On the bright side for Palin, if she totally blows this debate, her weakening effect on McCain won't change.
Prof.
Sep 27, 2008, 01:34 AM
I personally think the VP debate will destroy any credibility Palin may have. Biden is gonna tear her a new hole. I can't wait to watch the bloodbath...errr I mean debate.:D
63dot
Sep 27, 2008, 01:36 AM
Palin will come up a loser in a big way. Once it sets in that old and tired McCain could possibly die in office and she would become president, I think a lot of people will end up voting for Obama.
Don't you think McCain's three or four point drop in recent weeks was attributed to that and the damage of Palin has already peaked? What are the odds of people thinking of McCain dying at this point and realizing all of a sudden that Palin is green. Everybody knows that already and if they are voting for the GOP ticket, they are probably hoping absolutely nothing happens to McCain.
Palin, to me, is not scary based on her views, in the context that she was Alaska's governor in that conservative state, but by the fact she has almost no experience on a large level in population or in budget. Just think how much closer this race would be if McCain chose someone with much more experience that was already known like Romney. To go with an unknown was a most unwise move for McCain.
motulist
Sep 27, 2008, 01:46 AM
It CAN be a game changer. I'm not saying it will, but it definitely has that potential. If people see that Palin is completely uneducated about almost everything, while Biden just shows that he's competent, then I think it will sway a lot of people.
If she shows her ignorance and unpreparedness then not only will people not want her to be a heartbeat away from the presidency, but they will also rightly conclude that McCain's judgement these days is terrible even on matters of great importance. If the McCain from 10 or 15 years ago were running for president against Obama, I'd be very torn about who to vote for. But McCain has SERIOUSLY changed from who he once was, and his decision to select Palin for VP shows that the McCain of today is a hollow shell of his former self. If Palin looks stupid and unprepared to be president then people will see that the John McCain of today is not a man they want making decisions as their president.
EDIT:
Look at this. THIS is the woman who will be a heartbeat away from being the president. And this is the woman who John McCain judged to be most qualified to be president if he is unable to.
Palin is the most ignorant, incapable, ill-informed, and unprepared politician to ever be this close to the presidency. This is scary stuff folks. And this is the person who McCain decided was the best person to be president in his stead.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZ9bP_AqHPg
.Andy
Sep 27, 2008, 02:44 AM
I'm hoping it will be suitably hilarious.
Thomas Veil
Sep 27, 2008, 06:42 AM
Ordinarily I'd say the VP debate would have little effect. But this time it's different. With McCain's age and health being a factor, and the fact that this woman could become the President of the United States -- that suddenly raises the stakes.
I don't think it'll be a game-changer, but I do think the imminent slaughter of Palin by Biden will send more votes Obama's way.
rdowns
Sep 27, 2008, 06:57 AM
I think it will be big. We've had 3 interviews from her so far and she has shown that she is wholly uninformed on the issues. She even looked like a fool being interviewed by Hannity who lobbed softballs. The thing is, much of America has not seen these and I think many will tune into the debate. Wait until America gets a load of her and this takes over a 24 hour news cycle.
What format is this debate taking? Will the candidates address each other directly like lat night's? If so, Biden will obliterate her.
JG271
Sep 27, 2008, 07:03 AM
A moderate effect, i think. I think it will mostly move the remaining Hillary supporters firmly onto Obama's side. I've no idea how Biden can even debate with someone that doesn't even know what question she's just been asked.
If Biden handles it well and is clever about how he deals with her, it'll damage the McCain campaign significantly. If he appears arrogant or insulting her intelligence (which would be hard not to do, if i was in his situation!) then maybe then it will only have a minimal effect.
Either way, I'm looking forward to it. Maybe more for the comedy than the politics.
BoyBach
Sep 27, 2008, 08:12 AM
Whilst I don't believe that a VP can win an election, a poor choice could certainly lose one.
SwiftLives
Sep 27, 2008, 08:31 AM
The expectations for Palin are incredibly low, and by extension, the expectations for Biden are incredibly high. If Biden makes any gaffe - no matter how small (and with Biden's track record, that's not outside the realm of possibility), Palin wins. Heck - If Palin even shows up to the debate, she's got an advantage. Personally, I don't think it's going to be the slaughterfest that people are expecting. And anything less than a slaughterfest is going to mean that Palin "exceeded expectations" and wins the debate.
Erwin-Br
Sep 27, 2008, 08:50 AM
The expectations for Palin are incredibly low, and by extension, the expectations for Biden are incredibly high. If Biden makes any gaffe - no matter how small (and with Biden's track record, that's not outside the realm of possibility), Palin wins. Heck - If Palin even shows up to the debate, she's got an advantage. Personally, I don't think it's going to be the slaughterfest that people are expecting. And anything less than a slaughterfest is going to mean that Palin "exceeded expectations" and wins the debate.
Yes, I think so too. I also think they're training Palin around the clock now, so I doubt she'll make the big mistakes some might expect.
yg17
Sep 27, 2008, 08:54 AM
At the very least, it will provide me with some prime time entertainment :D
bobber205
Sep 27, 2008, 11:39 AM
Next Thursday, if there IS a debate, will be the last day McCain has a chance in hell of winning... :D
63dot
Sep 27, 2008, 01:11 PM
Next Thursday, if there IS a debate, will be the last day McCain has a chance in hell of winning... :D
I don't think, if you are believe all the presidential polls, in context tossing out the ultra conservative and ultra liberal ones, that McCain stands any chance, anywhere.
Five thirty eight, and electoral-vote show no movement towards McCain after this debate, and if anything, a slight gain for Obama.
McCain has no chance to reinvent himself this late in the game. America would have to suddenly be scared of a black man leading this country, and thus relive the California "Bradley" effect. During a California governor's race where Bradley, a black candidate, was way up in the polls the night before the election, many of his supporters flip flopped when they got to the polling booth and voted for the underdog white candidate. This has been long attributed to racism and thus called the "Bradley" effect. This shocked many political watchers since California is not exactly the easiest state to have a lackluster Republican candidate win.
mactastic
Sep 27, 2008, 01:16 PM
I think Sarah Palin will be the beneficiary of the soft bigotry of low expectations. Said low expectations will allow her to "win" the debate as long as she doesn't drool on herself.
SwiftLives
Sep 27, 2008, 01:32 PM
I don't think, if you are believe all the presidential polls, in context tossing out the ultra conservative and ultra liberal ones, that McCain stands any chance, anywhere.
Five thirty eight, and electoral-vote show no movement towards McCain after this debate, and if anything, a slight gain for Obama.
McCain has no chance to reinvent himself this late in the game. America would have to suddenly be scared of a black man leading this country, and thus relive the California "Bradley" effect. During a California governor's race where Bradley, a black candidate, was way up in the polls the night before the election, many of his supporters flip flopped when they got to the polling booth and voted for the underdog white candidate. This has been long attributed to racism and thus called the "Bradley" effect. This shocked many political watchers since California is not exactly the easiest state to have a lackluster Republican candidate win.
It's waaaay to early to be drawing conclusions from polling. Three days minimum before we see any movement from the debates. And in all likelihood, it will be a week.
63dot
Sep 27, 2008, 10:03 PM
It's waaaay to early to be drawing conclusions from polling. Three days minimum before we see any movement from the debates. And in all likelihood, it will be a week.
Where are you getting that from? Did you watch the erractic, and instantaneous behavior in polling during the tug of war during the Democratic primaries? We live in a world with the internet now, and polls abound. But see my next paragraph.
However, that being said, perhaps the old pre-internet polls which did take about 3 days (I worked for one of those companies many years ago) are probably to be trusted a lot more. When we would gather poll data for many companies like Gallup and Nielsen, a lot of what was worked out was the statistics of different samples. People would pay us a lot of money for our checking of stats for nationwide polls and my department put out the final report. But due to the internet and software that supposedly makes calculations quicker, polls have become far quicker to post, but somewhat less accurate.
Day 1 would be gathering data via telegram, telephone fax, etc.
Day 2 usually involved the stats from the analysts and putting together the report. I did late day 2 tasks.
Day 3 included the next day air dispatches of this information.
EDIT: There is movement 325-212 Obama, as of 9:55 pm pst sunday night, and he now has a better than 80% percent probability of winning. The presidential debate did not do well for McCain and now he has to rely on Sarah next? fivethirtyeight.com
SwiftLives
Sep 27, 2008, 10:50 PM
Well, the debate ended at 10:30 last night. That's a bit late for any polling. And I'm not referring to the snap polls, but rather the tracking polls used in such sites as electoral-vote.com and fivethiryeight.
You should bear in mind, however, that these polls reflect the pre-debate state of the race, as the overwhelming majority of the interviews for the these tracking polls took place before last night's debate was completed.
Personally, I'm not expecting any significant movement from this debate.
shecky
Sep 27, 2008, 10:51 PM
Look at this. THIS is the woman who will be a heartbeat away from being the president. And this is the woman who John McCain judged to be most qualified to be president if he is unable to.
Palin is the most ignorant, incapable, ill-informed, and unprepared politician to ever be this close to the presidency. This is scary stuff folks. And this is the person who McCain decided was the best person to be president in his stead.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZ9bP_AqHPg
Palin sounded so much like the Ms Teen USA bimbo (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lj3iNxZ8Dww) that i am now even more frightened of her in a position of power.
http://geektronica.com/files/miss-sc.jpg
Thomas Veil
Sep 27, 2008, 10:57 PM
Don't worry; God will tell her what to do.
Teh Don Ditty
Sep 27, 2008, 11:00 PM
In what respect abiyng87?
:D
abijnk
Sep 27, 2008, 11:34 PM
In what respect abiyng87?
:D
Well, what do you interpret it to be? :o
Teh Don Ditty
Sep 27, 2008, 11:46 PM
Well, what do you interpret it to be? :o
His world view...
For anyone out of the loop... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z75QSExE0jU
Cleverboy
Sep 28, 2008, 12:26 AM
I think Mactastic's comment is very accurate, however, I'm earnestly hoping she has a meltdown. I'm hoping Biden keeps the debate on solid ground. Personally I think Palin is much more comfortable when she's surrounded by men. When being asked questions by a woman, like Couric, she seems to freeze up and come across far more lost. Couric intimidated the CRAP out of her. Because the candidates will be dealing with each other LESS (to not at all), I think her success will depend mostly on her repoire with Gwen Ifill. If she's even half as intimidating a pressence as Couric (professional and sharp) Palin will become unhinged if taken off guard. You can see it in interviews. During her Hannity interview, there is a point where she talks about her son Track in the most "mom" type of way, and then she realizes its happening and almost blinks the "goofy" off of her face. When Couric asked her about the "Russia from my house" question, she went on about the attacks and got really flustered... and NEVER got back on track.
Gwen Ifill is no slouch though and as recently as
Sept 10th, gave this analysis of the candidate:
But the carefully stage-managed approach to her rollout to the American public could turn out to be a double-edged sword, Ifill warned.
“The last time I remember such an unknown person being put on the ticket was when Dan Quayle was nominated by George H. W. Bush to be his running mate in 1988,” she told the NewsHour’s Steve Goldbloom. “Shortly after that happened he came out in a series of live interviews with the press … where he did not acquit himself well in which he did misspeak on several occasions and certainly no one wants to repeat that on the Republican side. So they are carefully guarding Sarah Palin preparing her for what is certain to be merciless scrutiny … over the next several weeks and trying to preserve what is best about her without tarnishing what is a brand new brand.” Gwen Ifill moderated the Cheney/Edwards debate masquerade in 2004 (http://news-info.wustl.edu/news/page/normal/12104.html). The agreed format was as follows (hhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/20/AR2008092001992.html).
Under the plan agreed to yesterday, Palin and Biden will have less time than McCain and Obama to reply to moderators' questions and discuss each other's answers. And there will be no guidelines given to Gwen Ifill of PBS, moderator of the vice presidential debate, as to subject matter, allowing her to mix in questions about foreign and domestic matters, the sources said. In the negotiations, Republicans wanted to limit the amount of time available for their neophyte candidate, Palin, to be questioned on a single topic. Democrats, meanwhile, wanted to be sure Biden and Palin spoke from lecterns rather than sitting at a table the way Vice President Cheney and his rivals in 2000 (Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut) and 2004 (Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina) did. Both sides got what they wanted. Palin and Biden will each have 90 seconds to respond to questions, followed by a two-minute period for discussion between the candidates.The candidates will be permitted to question each other directly during those five-minute discussion periods, but they may not do so very often, because the campaigns are anxious about letting their candidates appear too aggressive, said sources involved in their preparations.
"We're charting some new territory here," Lehrer said in an interview. "It has the possibility of getting more give and take and more real reactions" from both candidates.
The same possibility will exist in the format agreed to yesterday for the Biden-Palin debate, but there will be less time available for such back and forth on each question. Ifill said Friday that she was satisfied with the five-minute segments. The candidates will be permitted to question each other directly during those five-minute discussion periods, but they may not do so very often, because the campaigns are anxious about letting their candidates appear too aggressive, said sources involved in their preparations.
"We're charting some new territory here," Lehrer said in an interview. "It has the possibility of getting more give and take and more real reactions" from both candidates.
The same possibility will exist in the format agreed to yesterday for the Biden-Palin debate, but there will be less time available for such back and forth on each question. Ifill said Friday that she was satisfied with the five-minute segments.We'll see how this works out, but she's definitely going to need some gimmicks. If she spouts any of that Couric-interview nonsense, it will be a disaster. This is no longer a hypothetical problem, and everyone is identifying it that way.
An female run women-centric anti-Palin blog has even started up.
http://womenagainstsarahpalin.blogspot.com/
"And I am especially proud to say in the week we celebrate the anniversary of women's suffrage [that she is] a devoted, a devoted wife and mother of five."
—John McCain introducing Sarah Palin
"If this doesn't resonate with every woman in America, I'll eat my hat."
—Alaska delegate Bill Noll on Sarah Palin
Dear Bill, get ready to eat your hat. —The Eds.I suspect this debate will have very high ratings.
~ CB
SwiftLives
Sep 28, 2008, 07:22 AM
I would very much like to see Biden come across as "too aggressive" toward Palin. Sure - there will be immediate blowback against Biden, but it can effectively be neutralized with a statement to the effect of "If Palin thought Biden was aggressive, how do you think she'll handle meeting with hostile foreign leaders?"
Desertrat
Sep 28, 2008, 10:56 AM
IF this little news blurb is factual, Biden might dig his grave with his mouth:
"WASHINGTON — Vice presidential candidate Joe Biden says today’s leaders should take a lesson from the history books and follow fellow Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt’s response to a financial crisis.
“When the stock market crashed, Franklin D. Roosevelt got on the television and didn’t just talk about the, you know, the princes of greed. He said, ‘Look, here’s what happened,”‘ Barack Obama’s running mate recently told the “CBS Evening News.”
Open mouth, insert foot.
For the very young :) : The crash was in 1929. Roosevelt took office in 1933. TV first appeared at the World's Fair in 1939.
mactastic
Sep 28, 2008, 11:04 AM
Oy veh...
BoyBach
Sep 28, 2008, 11:09 AM
The crash was in 1929. Roosevelt took office in 1933. TV first appeared at the World's Fair in 1939.
Oops!
TheAnswer
Sep 28, 2008, 11:40 AM
For the very young :) : The crash was in 1929. Roosevelt took office in 1933. TV first appeared at the World's Fair in 1939.
Factcheck.net here...
1) Roosevelt first took office as State Senator in 1910 and was serving as Governor of New York in 1929 when the market crashed.
2) Although mass produced televisions were introduced at the 1939 World's Fair, experimental television broadcasts had been going on for decades before that, with at least two New York broadcasts running before the crash of 1929.
But yes, Biden most likely misspoke. He's been infamous for his oral gaffes since that first awkward kiss in the 6th grade.
takao
Sep 28, 2008, 11:40 AM
TV first appeared at the World's Fair in 1939.
hmm how was it then possible that the first tv channel in germany started in 1934 ? (and thus transmitted the Olympic games 1936 for propaganda reasons) ;)
Mike Teezie
Sep 28, 2008, 11:41 AM
I think going into this thing, it's Palin's to lose. mac summed it up perfectly.
You would think that this would be a slaughterfest, with what we've seen so far from Palin. It is blisteringly evident that she has zero idea what she is talking about.
However, even though she has looked completely clueless and idiotic in the interviews she has done, Gaffemaster B could easily snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by saying something foolish. One dumb line uttered, and it will dominate the news cycle for a week.
Of course, I'm hoping for a whole lot of, "in what respect, Charlie" with some of the unintelligible babble like in the Couric interview mixed in for good measure.
Biden needs to be very conservative with his answers. Short and succint.
mactastic
Sep 28, 2008, 12:29 PM
IF this little news blurb is factual, Biden might dig his grave with his mouth:
"WASHINGTON — Vice presidential candidate Joe Biden says today’s leaders should take a lesson from the history books and follow fellow Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt’s response to a financial crisis.
“When the stock market crashed, Franklin D. Roosevelt got on the television and didn’t just talk about the, you know, the princes of greed. He said, ‘Look, here’s what happened,”‘ Barack Obama’s running mate recently told the “CBS Evening News.”
Open mouth, insert foot.
For the very young :) : The crash was in 1929. Roosevelt took office in 1933. TV first appeared at the World's Fair in 1939.
Of course, if this is the standard for expecting a poor debate performance, McCain did say that the Georgian crisis was the "first serious crisis since the cold war".
By this standard, he should have dug his own grave right after opening his mouth and inserting his foot, right?
63dot
Sep 28, 2008, 12:50 PM
I think Mactastic's comment is very accurate, however, I'm earnestly hoping she has a meltdown.
~ CB
Palin is a meltdown the day we were introduced to her.
What are her Presidential credentials:
MBA? nope, even W has one of those, and who needs to know anything about business when you are president? Isn't the job about free rides in Air Force 1?
Law Degree? nope, but who cares about Congress and legislation :)
Experience of being a governor? if you call a state with fewer people than San Jose a state and running things on a state level.
Length of experience? OK, Palin has more than the 20 months as uh, um, state governor, but ten, yes ten, big years as a city politician, and yes, even mayor. Now bite on that one if McCain wins and either dies or becomes incapacitated. And we all thought a mayor of New York, only 8 million people, was a jump to the white house. How about mayor of Wasilla, AK?
Is Palin impressive compared to most 44 year old women, as taken against the median, American woman as far as education and experience? Sure. Is she ambitious compared to most 44 year olds? Sure. Maybe her bachelor's degree and 12 years in politics would put her in the top 15 or 20% percent of women in earnings and success. But we are looking for a person who can be exceptional and be qualified to be 2nd in command of a nation of over 300 million people. She isn't even close to other female names that were on McCain's short list.
abijnk
Sep 28, 2008, 04:36 PM
Biden needs to be very conservative with his answers. Short and succint.
I think you hit the nail on the head here. If Biden can remain cool, calm and collected and give stong answers without going off topic, then he won't even be an issue. Sadly, this is a pretty big order for the "gaffe master." :o
63dot
Sep 30, 2008, 12:58 PM
fivethirtyeight and electoral-vote has obama way ahead
329 to 209 according to the former, electoral vote wise..popular vote is close to five percentage points.
At this point, Biden would have to drool all over himself and forget everything he ever knew to "lose" against Palin. When Palin goes up there, all people will see is Tina Fey's caricature. :)
atszyman
Sep 30, 2008, 01:18 PM
What format is this debate taking? Will the candidates address each other directly like lat night's? If so, Biden will obliterate her.
I think not addressing each other would benefit Biden more. I believe that direct interaction would lead to a "foot in mouth" much more easily from Biden. If they're isolated from one another then he'll have less chance of coming of condescending, and it's less likely that he would say something that could be perceived as flirting/sexist/patronizing.
I think Sarah Palin will be the beneficiary of the soft bigotry of low expectations. Said low expectations will allow her to "win" the debate as long as she doesn't drool on herself.
Yep, I fully believe that the low expectations on her part will work in her favor, unless she gives answers like the Couric one that keeps floating around.
fivethirtyeight and electoral-vote has obama way ahead
329 to 209 according to the former, electoral vote wise..popular vote is close to five percentage points.
At this point, Biden would have to drool all over himself and forget everything he ever knew to "lose" against Palin. When Palin goes up there, all people will see is Tina Fey's caricature. :)
Actually Biden has to do well, the expectations are that he will demolish her and if he fails to live up to that it will be viewed as a win for Palin. Of course it's a fine line to walk since if he does it too well they'll attack him for being a sexist/misogynist and beating up on a woman.
It could have little effect, it could be a game changer, until I see it I won't know which.
CorvusCamenarum
Sep 30, 2008, 01:47 PM
Actually Biden has to do well, the expectations are that he will demolish her and if he fails to live up to that it will be viewed as a win for Palin. Of course it's a fine line to walk since if he does it too well they'll attack him for being a sexist/misogynist and beating up on a woman.
It could have little effect, it could be a game changer, until I see it I won't know which.
If you want to play with the big dogs, don't complain when they bite.
I don't see this as ending up being a big deal. I'd surmise that the vast majority of voters already know what they think about Palin, and it won't make a difference one way or another.
atszyman
Sep 30, 2008, 02:13 PM
If you want to play with the big dogs, don't complain when they bite.
I don't see this as ending up being a big deal. I'd surmise that the vast majority of voters already know what they think about Palin, and it won't make a difference one way or another.
I agree, but if he comes off in any way as being mean, condescending, or patronizing, the right will spin it into him being a sexist.
Not that they won't try to do that no matter what, I'm just a bit concerned that Biden could easily give them a lot of good soundbites to "prove" their point.
abijnk
Oct 1, 2008, 10:28 AM
So, one other interesting thing is that the moderator for the VP debate is "pro-Obama." Can't wait to see the spin on that one... :rolleyes:
Anuba
Oct 1, 2008, 10:37 AM
It all depends on whether they've been able to reprogram her. If she recites her learned lines verbatim, she might stand a chance. If she speaks in her own words, it's gonna be a fiasco. If her brain short circuits like in the Couric interviews and different random thoughts that compete for her mouth, it'll be total and utter disaster.
Anuba
Oct 1, 2008, 10:48 AM
At this point, Biden would have to drool all over himself and forget everything he ever knew to "lose" against Palin. When Palin goes up there, all people will see is Tina Fey's caricature. :)
And on Saturday, Tina Fey will be right there, reenacting the highlights of the debate -- against, I'm assuming, Darrell Hammond as Biden.
abijnk
Oct 1, 2008, 12:41 PM
Interesting article:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/01/begala.debate/index.html
63dot
Oct 2, 2008, 12:08 AM
Later tonight, Biden will not have to do much except stick to a basic script. Palin will do the damage all by herself, and to herself. Biden is not Palin's biggest obstacle, Palin is to herself.
Palin may be OK or just neutral on paper, but in interviews she is terrible. She may be the worst in a non-scripted scenario in a national election that I can think of. Her few interview snippets with the press have been utterly disasterous. No wonder why the McCain camp have kept her very quiet all this time. The GOP will have rely soley on McCain, and that's their best chance to catch up this late in the game.
The site fivethirtyeight.com has Obama at 336 over McCain's measley 202 in the electoral college. Win percentage for Obama is likely to be 85.4% percent over McCain at 14.6% percent. Popular vote is for Obama at 51.4% percent vs. McCain at 47% percent. These numbers have been creeping up slowly but steadily for Obama for quite a long time at this point.
And the site electoral-vote.com has 286 to 190 in favor of Obama, and McCain no longer has a lead in Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio.
freeny
Oct 2, 2008, 06:58 AM
Palins strategy will be to make Biden off to be a politician from the old boys club inside the beltway. She launched this tactic a few days ago durring a speech by informing everyone she was in second grade when Biden was first elected. Unfortunately she was standing right next to her 72 year old running mate.
It will be interesting to see if this works or if it comes across as hilighting just how much more experienced Biden is...
Anuba
Oct 2, 2008, 07:24 AM
Palin may be OK or just neutral on paper, but in interviews she is terrible. She may be the worst in a non-scripted scenario in a national election that I can think of.
Yeah, but unfortunately this is a kind of semi-scripted scenario. The candidates will have 90 seconds to respond to questions -- questions which will be fairly predictable, I assume, given that there's only one debate, so the moderator will probably stick to the top ten issues. The McCain camp has crammed Palin full of pre-packaged 90-second answers over the weekend, so she will basically be reading off the teleprompter in her head. Then there will be a 2-minute discussion after each question, and she may slip up there... on the other hand, Biden will have trouble getting to the point in just 2 minutes.
atszyman
Oct 2, 2008, 12:12 PM
OK, my fun question of the day:
I've seen rumors of Biden dropping out, or Palin dropping out depending on the debate. Do we get another debate if one ticket replaces their VP candidate? or do we have to go into the election without the side by side comparison of the new running mate(s)?
abijnk
Oct 2, 2008, 12:20 PM
OK, my fun question of the day:
I've seen rumors of Biden dropping out, or Palin dropping out depending on the debate. Do we get another debate if one ticket replaces their VP candidate? or do we have to go into the election without the side by side comparison of the new running mate(s)?
I don't think it will happen.
63dot
Oct 3, 2008, 07:59 AM
Yeah, but unfortunately this is a kind of semi-scripted scenario. The candidates will have 90 seconds to respond to questions -- questions which will be fairly predictable, I assume, given that there's only one debate, so the moderator will probably stick to the top ten issues. The McCain camp has crammed Palin full of pre-packaged 90-second answers over the weekend, so she will basically be reading off the teleprompter in her head. Then there will be a 2-minute discussion after each question, and she may slip up there... on the other hand, Biden will have trouble getting to the point in just 2 minutes.
As it turned out, Palin could at least read, he teleprompter in her head, even though somebody wrote down some wrong facts. Biden kept things succinct but should have expanded on all of Palin's lies about Senate voting records. Biden played the gentleman and because of that people think he barely won the debate where I think he could have wiped her out. But this was not the venue for attacks since the time was so limited for each candidate. The best thing you could do is to prop up your side, but Palin sounded like she was propping up Bush, not McCain.
CorvusCamenarum
Oct 3, 2008, 09:04 AM
As it turned out, Palin could at least read, he teleprompter in her head, even though somebody wrote down some wrong facts. Biden kept things succinct but should have expanded on all of Palin's lies about Senate voting records. Biden played the gentleman and because of that people think he barely won the debate where I think he could have wiped her out. But this was not the venue for attacks since the time was so limited for each candidate. The best thing you could do is to prop up your side, but Palin sounded like she was propping up Bush, not McCain.
The fact checkers were asleep at the wheel on both sides.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/debate_fact_check;_ylt=AthcwgS9QklLI.RGDZ8lZNas0NUE
Anuba
Oct 3, 2008, 09:53 AM
CNN interviewed a group of Joe Sixpack-type people after the debate, and they were thrilled about Palin's performance, saying that she would get their vote because "she's someone just like us, not like them fancy Washington folk".
OK, so let's see. You live in a trailer, you drive a Gremlin that's held together with duct tape, you eat Oreo's for breakfast and deep-fried gophers for dinner, and you sign papers with an X. Now WHY the hell would you want a vice president who is "just like you"? Are you a role model? Is your life a recipe for success? Are your policies, once applied to the entire nation, going to solve anything? No. You should vote for someone who is the polar opposite of yourself.
freeny
Oct 3, 2008, 10:18 AM
CNN interviewed a group of Joe Sixpack-type people after the debate, and they were thrilled about Palin's performance, saying that she would get their vote because "she's someone just like us, not like them fancy Washington folk".
Translation- "smart people"
arkitect
Oct 3, 2008, 10:35 AM
CNN interviewed a group of Joe Sixpack-type people after the debate, and they were thrilled about Palin's performance, saying that she would get their vote because "she's someone just like us, not like them fancy Washington folk".
The future of the US and by extension a large part of the world lie with those voters.
Conclusion?
We're all f@cked.
:(
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