View Full Version : Something which could ease the markets?
paddy
Sep 30, 2008, 12:44 PM
Ireland takes steps to safeguard its banking system
Government to guarantee all deposits
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The Irish government Tuesday said it will guarantee domestic banks' deposits and debt for two years to allay fears of an imminent collapse of its banking system after shares in the sector lost more than a quarter of their value in Dublin Monday.
"The government has decided to put in place with immediate effect a guarantee arrangement to safeguard all deposits (retail, commercial, institutional and interbank), covered bonds, senior debt and date subordinated debt," the finance ministry said in a statement.
The measure sent banking shares soaring. Anglo Irish Banks rose 16% in volatile Dublin afternoon trading. Bank of Ireland shares climbed 18% and Anglo Irish Bank added 41%. Irish Life and Permanent shares gained 26%.
The recovery in the banking sector lifted the ISEQ 20, which rose 6.1% to 521.04, after a drop of roughly 13% on Monday.
<snip>
"This presumably puts the Irish banks in better shape to seek funding compared with other non-guaranteed banks in international capital markets, which must be a net benefit for the Irish financial system and should act to address many of the concerns expressed in the past 24 hours by the wider financial markets in relation to Ireland"
Source (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/ireland-takes-steps-safeguard-banking/story.aspx?guid={9ACB618D-7F78-4B2E-879B-0188EE551F72}&dist=msr_17)
I'll admit I'm no expert on the banking system and financial markets, but does anyone think that a move like this (followed by other Central Banks), could bring some sort of stability to the system?
Peterkro
Sep 30, 2008, 01:40 PM
It's my guess that it was actually a panic move to try and head off rumours of a collapse of the Irish banking sector,I watched one german analyst saying it had doubled the risk rating of the Irish banks on his scale,but given the share prices have gone up somebody must believe it's a good thing.
Ugg
Sep 30, 2008, 01:41 PM
Source (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/ireland-takes-steps-safeguard-banking/story.aspx?guid={9ACB618D-7F78-4B2E-879B-0188EE551F72}&dist=msr_17)
I'll admit I'm no expert on the banking system and financial markets, but does anyone think that a move like this (followed by other Central Banks), could bring some sort of stability to the system?
Are deposits insured now? If so, for how much?
While this is a good way of restoring confidence, it doesn't seem to be a long term solution. The Irish economy has been overheated for a long time and this might just heat it up even more.
I'm not an economist so...
paddy
Sep 30, 2008, 02:40 PM
Are deposits insured now? If so, for how much?
While this is a good way of restoring confidence, it doesn't seem to be a long term solution. The Irish economy has been overheated for a long time and this might just heat it up even more.
I'm not an economist so...
Yes, deposits are insured up to €100,000 at the moment. What this plan does is more or less guarantee inter-bank lending i.e. if the Irish banks borrow from larger foreign banks, and than the Irish bank goes bust, the Irish gov will honour the otherwise defaulted payment.
Seems like a good way of bringing liquidity back into the market.
@ Peterkro, the article is quite wrong in stating an Irish banking sector collapse. Ugg is right in that we've been overheating as an economy for quite a while, but from what economists within Ireland are saying our banks are (for the most part) not to badly exposed to the whole sub-prime business. What this move does is ensure liquidity within the Irish financial system.
Here's hoping Brussels doesn't put it's foot down on the idea.
Ugg
Sep 30, 2008, 02:52 PM
Yes, deposits are insured up to €100,000 at the moment. What this plan does is more or less guarantee inter-bank lending i.e. if the Irish banks borrow from larger foreign banks, and than the Irish bank goes bust, the Irish gov will honour the otherwise defaulted payment.
Seems like a good way of bringing liquidity back into the market.
@ Peterkro, the article is quite wrong in stating an Irish banking sector collapse. Ugg is right in that we've been overheating as an economy for quite a while, but from what economists within Ireland are saying our banks are (for the most part) not to badly exposed to the whole sub-prime business. What this move does is ensure liquidity within the Irish financial system.
Here's hoping Brussels doesn't put it's foot down on the idea.
How are home prices holding up? If prices start to drop, will Ireland end up with people defaulting on their loans? That could be disastrous since home prices have evidently skyrocketed in Ireland over the past 20 years.
Peterkro
Sep 30, 2008, 04:51 PM
I also have worries about the EU allowing it,plus it's a tremendous risk to back around €400 billion in loans of all types, at present those with largish amounts of money to bank would see Irish banks as the best choice,but it was a risky response to the huge drops in the banking sector on Monday,presumably the market had lost confidence in the banks for some reason,true or not who knows.
Macaddicttt
Sep 30, 2008, 05:00 PM
I'm no economist, but this sounds like a huge risk. It also sounds like the government is saying, "It's no problem to make risky loans, we'll cover them," effectively privatizing profits and publicizing losses. I'm not convinced that this will do anything other than legitimize the bad loans without creating a means or incentive for the banks to begin responsible lending again. They won't have any more capital and anything they do is guaranteed by the government.
The US did a similar thing with Fannie May and Freddie Mac, but the only reason that worked is that the loans were all home loans and the goal was to ensure that they didn't start calling in mortgages to pay off debts and force people out of their homes. This Irish deal is way different because these are actual banks, not mortgage companies.
Desertrat
Sep 30, 2008, 05:14 PM
This same sort of thing happened in the last day or so with one German bank and a bank in (IIRC) the Netherlands which provides service to Belgium/Holland/Denmark.
Worldwide, many economies have been overheated, with way too much easy credit and liquidity--which is why we've been having these "good times" for the last dozen years.
What's scary right now is that there is this short-term flight of capital into US Treasuries, indicating distrust of foreign central banks' stability. As bad off as we are, and others regard us as a haven? Sheesh!
'Rat
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