Post-Debate - Obama thunders past 50% in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania

[Cleverboy]

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jVJLH6pLyVW-LX9fBoS2fed6EnFAD93HLA9O0
WASHINGTON (AP) — Recently trailing or tied, Democrat Barack Obama now leads Republican John McCain in a trio of the most critical, vote-rich states five weeks before the election, according to presidential poll results released Wednesday.

The Democrat's support jumped to 50 percent or above in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania in Quinnipiac University surveys taken during the weekend — after the opening presidential debate and during Monday's dramatic stock market plunge as the House rejected a $700 billion financial bailout plan.

Combined, these states offer 68 of the 270 electoral votes needed for victory on Election Day, Nov. 4.

Pollsters attributed Obama's improved standing to the public's general approval of his debate performance, antipathy toward GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin and heightened confidence in the Illinois senator's ability to handle the economic crisis.The new surveys show Obama leading McCain in Florida 51 percent to 43 percent, in Ohio 50 percent to 42 percent and in Pennsylvania 54 percent to 39 percent.

Since 1960, no president has been elected without winning two of those three states.

The results are notable because they show Obama in a strong position in the pair of states that put Bush in the White House in 2000 and kept him there four years later — Florida and Ohio, with 27 and 20 electoral votes, respectively. Um... OUCH.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml
Frequently cited by journalists, public officials and researchers, the independent Quinnipiac University Poll regularly surveys residents in Connecticut, Florida, New York, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania and nationwide about political races, state and national elections, and issues of public concern, such as schools, taxes, transportation, municipal services and the environment.

Known for its exactness and thoroughness, the Quinnipiac poll was selected a "winner" by the New York Post for the most accurate prediction on the Schumer-D'Amato Senate race in 1998, and results are featured regularly in The New York Times, The Washington Post, USA Today, The Wall Street Journal and on national network news broadcasts.
In a survey that ended an hour before the debate started, Obama outpolled McCain in Florida 49 percent to 43 percent, in Pennsylvania 49 percent to 42 percent and in Ohio 49 percent to 43 percent.

In the last 20 days, Obama, an Illinois senator, surged from 7 points down in Florida to 8 points up while increasing his leads in the other two states, Brown said.
http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081001/NEWS0107/81001010/1075

~ CB

[rdowns]

FiveThiryEight.com has Obama way ahead in the EC. I'm worried he may be peaking too early.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3249/2902868142_86489c23dc_o.png

[Anuba]

Right, but is that post-debate or post economic meltdown? IMHO this is all about the economy and the bailout vote. McCain has been made the fall guy for that. The problem is, McCain and Obama will join forces in the Senate today and revive the failed bailout bill. Once that happens, there's gonna be a lot of discontent. It will probably tip the balance a little in favor of McCain, because now they will both look equally bad, whileas before, Obama was relatively unscathed. It will also affect voter turnout negatively, which will hurt Obama more than McCain I think.
FiveThiryEight.com has Obama way ahead in the EC. I'm worried he may be peaking too early.
Sadly he peaked much earlier than this. Obamania peaked during the primaries, there was so much hype and energy spent in order to get him ahead of Hillary that the outcome became a bit of an anticlimax. The charm of novelty had worn off. The reasons he's well ahead of McCain now are 1) the economy, 2) Sarah Palin. Since Obama has no control over those two factors, he will need quite a bit of luck in order to stay on top all the way.

[yoppie]

If the polls keep favoring Obama, McCain will have to suspend his campaign again. :p

[Cleverboy]

If the polls keep favoring Obama, McCain will have to suspend his campaign again. :p
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/30/mccain-may-suspend-campai_n_130553.html
David Kurtz at TPM writes, "John McCain made the morning show rounds today. On Fox they were virtually begging him to 'suspend' his campaign again in the wake of the bailout failure yesterday on the Hill. [-SNIP-] McCain's answer: He just might suspend again."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KsKfMuENxhY

~ CB

[JG271]

Anuba - I think you may be right about it being based on the economy. The debate had no definitive winner, and people may be thinking that a change is needed economy wise, and perhaps seeing McCain as a close friend of the current administration won't do him any favours.

Whilst the election could still go either way, all the polls i have seen show Obama at at least +5%, some even up 8%. With the VP debate tomorrow, i think we'll see more people make concrete decisions on who they are going to vote for.

[Cleverboy]

Right, but is that post-debate or post economic meltdown? IMHO this is all about the economy and the bailout vote. McCain has been made the fall guy for that. The problem is, McCain and Obama will join forces in the Senate today and revive the failed bailout bill. Once that happens, there's gonna be a lot of discontent. It will probably tip the balance a little in favor of McCain, because now they will both look equally bad, whileas before, Obama was relatively unscathed. It will also affect voter turnout negatively, which will hurt Obama more than McCain I think. Meh, the economy is part of it, and the McCain shinanigans and Palin fallout are a part, but Obama's definitely come out in support of the "Rescue" bill. He just didn't look erratic and suspend his campaign over it. He's made his case to the public, but the media is really over-shadowing any message being sent by the politicians at this point. Turning public sentiment when the initial action was badly sold (due to its "out of no where" nature), is extremely rough, especially in the house, where many representatives are up for re-election. They're trying to pull "retiring" Reps over to support now... its really harsh, and its highly political. No one's "winning" in this one and it shows.

~ CB

[mactastic]

I think we're going to see an increasingly desperate McCain campaign over the next few weeks. If you think they've been ugly to this point, I'm afraid we ain't seen nothin' yet...

[Anuba]

I think we're going to see an increasingly desperate McCain campaign over the next few weeks. If you think they've been ugly to this point, I'm afraid we ain't seen nothin' yet...
Yeah, the McCain ad about Obama's supposed "strong fundamentals" statement really took the cake, especially in the light of McCain's own statements (he said those words verbatim, whereas Obama's had to be taken out of context and reassembled).

The next logical step is Obama montages where the McCain team splices together parts of sentences and come up with stuff like "I - love - terrorists - and - kill - babies", and a sarcastic voiceover comes in and says "Do you *really* want a muslim extremist who eats infants to be your next president?"

[it5five]

This is great news. Also worth noting, I think, is that Obama is leading in Virginia too.

[donga]

election day seems so far away from now. there are tons of things that can and will happen between now and then.

i don't think the polls are accurate indicators. there's a recent article saying the battleground state voters are extremely volatile

[mactastic]

i don't think the polls are accurate indicators. there's a recent article saying the battleground state voters are extremely volatile
Sigh... The sad part is that this isn't going to be the last time I have to repeat this before election day.

Polls are not predictors of future behavior. They are snapshots of the population at a point in time. They are accurate indicators of where people are today, not where they will be on Nov. 4th. A single poll is rather meaningless in this regard, as it doesn't tell you much beyond what people are thinking on the day you polled them; which is why you must watch the trendlines of polls that ask the same question over time. Trendlines can and do establish the direction of movement in thought among those polled.

For instance, you could have a poll that shows two candidates tied. But knowing that Candidate A was 20 points ahead a week prior puts a whole new spin on the poll.

And of course you have to watch out for poll outliers and for disreputable pollsters.

[CalBoy]

election day seems so far away from now. there are tons of things that can and will happen between now and then.

Of course some states allow voting to begin as of now (in fact, Ohio is one such state), which means that some voters may be casting ballots that they may eventually regret.

i don't think the polls are accurate indicators. there's a recent article saying the battleground state voters are extremely volatile

Polls, however, do track changes very well. Since the GOP convention ended, McCain's lead has slowly and continuously dwindled to the point where he is now consistently behind in critical states like Colorado, and where he has lost a once solid lead in states like Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. If only one of these states goes for Obama, Obama will win the election. And if current trends continue, it seems like Obama has a good shot at taking all three, if not at least two.

[OutThere]

I've been very pleased with what I've seen over the past 36 hours or so. http://electoral-vote.com/

For the poll haters: as has been stated before, the trends are more important than the individual polls themselves. When they start having rapid fire polls moving up to the election (pretty much now), the trend can give us a good picture of what will happen....a candidate on an upswing right before an election, for example, could very well go on to win the election a day or two later, surprising people who only looked at one poll but not those who'd watched the whole week beforehand.

The polls now can give us a good picture of how the voters react to events...the conventions and debates, for example.

[Thomas Veil]

I do recognize that a poll is a mere snapshot.

However, only a few weeks ago Obama was a little behind or tied in Ohio. He was behind in Florida. Other swing states are swinging Obama's way. This is a rather stunning, if not completely unexpected, turnabout.

And the really exciting news is that there are no factors in sight which work to McCain's advantage. Palin, the economy and McCain's own behavior have become boat anchors that are weighing him down.

Barring some completely unexpected reversal -- an Obama scandal, real or imagined, or a terrorist attack upon the United States -- Obama is going to be president.

Addendum: Obama leading in Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada and Virginia as well.
ST. LOUIS, Missouri (CNN) -- Polls in five crucial battleground states in the race for the White House released Wednesday suggest that Sen. Barack Obama is making some major gains.

The CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corp. polls of likely voters in Florida, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada and Virginia suggest a shift toward the Democratic presidential nominee.

In Florida, the state that decided the 2000 presidential election, 51 percent of likely voters say Obama, D-Illinois, is their choice for president, with 47 percent backing Republican presidential nominee John McCain.

The last CNN poll taken in Florida two weeks ago showed the race for the state's 27 electoral votes tied at 48 percent apiece among registered voters.

A new CNN poll of polls in Florida, also out Wednesday, has Obama leading McCain by 5 points. The CNN poll of polls is an average of the new CNN poll and other new state polls....

Obama's also making gains over McCain in Minnesota, the state in which the Republican convention was held a month ago. Fifty-four percent of those questioned are backing Obama, with 43 percent supporting McCain, R-Arizona. That 11-point lead is much larger than the 2-point advantage Obama had in the last CNN poll taken in Minnesota a month ago.

It's a similar story in Missouri, where 49 percent of those polled are backing Obama and 48 percent supporting McCain. That's a gain for Obama, who was down 5 points to McCain in CNN's last poll in Missouri, taken three weeks ago. The only other new poll in Missouri, a Research 2000 survey, indicates McCain ahead by 1 point.

Thursday's vice presidential debate will be in St. Louis, Missouri.

The poll also indicates Obama has a 4-point lead over McCain in Nevada, 51- 47 percent. CNN's last survey in Nevada, taken in late August, had McCain up slightly. A new American Research Group poll in Nevada puts McCain ahead by 2 points.

In Virginia, which hasn't voted for the Democrats in a presidential contest since 1964, the new poll suggests Obama has a 9-point lead, 53-44 percent.

[yojitani]

As an anecdote to this, I got a call from the Obama campaign asking if I had made up my mind who I would vote for (I was leaning Green or Socialist) and told them Obama. I got into a discussion with the woman who called about the campaign and explained that I changed to Obama for the simple reason that Iowa is a swing state (it went red last time) and there is no way that I could tolerate a nutter like Sarah Palin so close to power. She said, I quote, "we've been hearing a lot of that recently."