View Full Version : Paul Thurrott's math regarding mac marketshare

Jan 26, 2004, 01:44 PM
Category: Opinion/Interviews
Link: Paul Thurrott's math regarding mac marketshare (http://www.macbytes.com/link.php?sid=20040126144410)

Posted on MacBytes.com (http://www.macbytes.com)

Approved by Mudbug

Jan 26, 2004, 01:58 PM
The man is not necessarily misinformed, but definitely very biased. His musings on Mac OS X and Apple are really not constructive, educational, informative or well written. MacRumors community, please stop posting his articles: the only thing we do is pick apart his statements or flame him. We can do much more productive things during the time it takes to post our responses. See? I just waited 5 minutes reading the statement, and writing this. I want my five minutes back!

Jan 26, 2004, 02:04 PM
that's what you get for someone who's well known for being one of the most pro-M$ people out there

Jan 26, 2004, 02:07 PM
As long as he keeps writing, I will continue to flame him.
At Macworld SF David Pogue, who is surely much more in the know than this guesstimate blogger, said that although the Mac's market share, computers sold, is 2, 3, or 5 percent based on who you ask, its usage share, computers in use, is 16%.
This guy is retarded. I would definitely like to see him and Pogue in a battle of the wits, I think we all know who would win.

Jan 26, 2004, 02:10 PM
An actual quote from his page:
"Misologist. Hatred of reason, argument, or enlightenment. In clearer terms, a person who wants to win an argument more than learn the truth. I deal with these people regularly."

Jan 26, 2004, 02:24 PM
"But let's say it's 1 billion."

Why not just say it's 1 trillion? It's equally (un)substantiated, and help's Paul's argument out a thousand times better.

edit: I

Microsoft is arguably far more "creative," in the sense that it is making exciting new markets and products. And besides, half of the so-called new features in Apple's latest OS were stolen directly from Microsoft.

That's one of the responses or whatever. Holy smokes, what a strange statement.

Jan 26, 2004, 02:29 PM
I think I gave up taking this guy seriously a long time ago.

Jan 26, 2004, 02:41 PM
Gotta love the leaps of logic.

Maybe there are a billion PC users in the world but from what I've seen in developing nations is that most users simply "rent time" at public cafes to check their emails or chat. The term "personal computer" hardly applies to them since many of this billion will never own a PC of their own.

Most of them won't have the means or resources to make a valid choice between Mac or Windows. Chances are it'll be a pirated version of Windows or whatever they can buy for $5 on the street.

Jan 26, 2004, 02:44 PM
Okay, how many WORKING PCs are there out there? What's the percentage of sold PCs vs actual PCs that are used?

If I had to replace my Mac everytime I had to replace my PC... (fill in here).

Paul Thurrott actually replied to a previous comment I made to him re: AAC vs. WMA. Funny thing was he said that anyone in the pro audio field felt that WMAs are better. Sadly, I had to inform him that ain't was the case (I have 17+) years in the field... Basically, he just likes to get our hearts pumped...

Pay him no-never-mind


Jan 26, 2004, 02:48 PM
I just wasted 5 minutes reading though his site.

5 minutes of my life wasted, when I could have been more constructive.. such as watching paint dry.

In his responses to SJ quotes, he took quite a few things out of context.

Jan 26, 2004, 03:23 PM
I move for a ban on Paul Thurott articles from this site :(

Jan 26, 2004, 03:29 PM
Paul, as a lemming, please it is your time to jump from the cliff, don't hestitate there are millions waiting for you!

Jan 26, 2004, 03:40 PM
Please stop posting this "guys" crap here.

Jan 26, 2004, 03:55 PM
Originally posted by Mr.Hey
Please stop posting this "guys" crap here.

No! That's the worst thing to do!

The BEST thing to do is to keep posting his posts, with rebuttals, so there's a fighting chance to counteract the FUD!

Jan 26, 2004, 04:49 PM
I see many people still using really old Macs and using OS 8 even!! Thus it is not really possible to know the true number of Mac users but the one way to really overbalance the PC usage is to look at all the "dumb" terminals out there and say that represents valid users when it clearly doesn't. Wagon loads of Dell's do not a user make!

In any case, it's clear that Apple's world-wide market share will continue to drop as cheaper and cheaper PCs land on all the remaining available office desks all over the world. It's an area that Apple could compete in if they wanted... I'm beginning to wish they would come out with the headless box at $499 and abslolutely prove that they can gain market share. The only problem is that supporting this would be costly and so do we really want to see Apple's almost 5 billion in cash slowly slide away? okay! I've answered my own question... I don't want them to make cheap boxes.
More seriously, even if Apple creeps up to 30 million, 40 million etc, they will still be under 20% "fair usage" numbers and the developers who don't want to develop for them will continue to argue that it is not worth their while. I consider that lazy thinking as there must be many companies that would die for a chance to serve a 30 million market. Perhaps, we shall see Mac apps appear from outside the US as entrepreneurs look at what is still a very respectable market. I hope so.
GraphicsConverter is one stunning example of this.

Jan 26, 2004, 05:25 PM
Gotta love the title... "An Honest Look and Mac OS X, Linux, and Other Windows Alternatives."

Ha ha.

And boy, he's sure right, MS comes out with far more creative products than Apple :D

Jan 26, 2004, 05:35 PM
If there are 1 billion PC users worldwide, and 10 million OS X users, what is the Mac's usage share? It's one-tenth of one-percent (or 0.1 percent)

Lol "Paul Thurrott's math regarding mac marketshare " so fun when the math is wrong!

1 billion = 1000 million

10 million OSX user/ 1000 million PC user = 1 OSX user / 100 PC users = 1 percent and not 0.1 percent.

That's the most simple math and if I jugde Paul's other articles after I have seen this gigantic fault I would say keep your fingers away!



Jan 26, 2004, 05:42 PM
Originally posted by gwangung
No! That's the worst thing to do!

The BEST thing to do is to keep posting his posts, with rebuttals, so there's a fighting chance to counteract the FUD!

No, YOUR idea is the a bad idea.

He wants to generate hits, he want to be 'popular' link to his crappola site and he has to reason to post this BS.

Paul -- "End your life immediately"

Arguably, the music industry itself is a niche market, yes... billions of dollars is niche.

IP == Firewall BANNED.

Jan 26, 2004, 07:06 PM
Response: Sure, you're the CEO of the company getting the best part of the deal. What about HP's users though. Are they getting a good deal? Will the "hPod" work with all of HP's existing products? What about Protected AAC?

Second Response: Yes, you actually have a point here, the so called hPod will only work with HP's existing computers, and the Fairplay AAC format. Unfortunately, no support will be provided for HPs scanners or printers.

I mean, what was the man thinking? I think the eggnog is a little stale at the Thurrott household.

Jan 27, 2004, 03:38 AM
Gad, this kind of sloppy journalism really annoys me. And to think that I used to write for this guy's site !!! (That's no joke, I really did several years ago.)

Anyway, here's a copy of an e-mail that I sent to him. Hope you enjoy it.

Hello again, Paul. It's me. Congrats on your updated Internet Nexus
site. Very interesting premise -- an honest look at alternative OSes. I

Now I'm sure you've probably gotten a lot of e-mails already on this
subject, but I was looking at your post "Mac market share vs. usage
share", and I think you have some very strange numbers at work here.

First of all, 10 million out of 1 billion is 1%. Even if you add the 10
million to the 1 billion figure (to get 1,010,000,000) and calculate
from that, the difference in percentage is negligible. In other words,
that 0.1% figure you arrived at...makes no sense whatsoever.

But this is sort of comparing apples (ha) and oranges anyway. What we
really want to do is compare Windows XP to Mac OS X. These are the 2 top
actively-developed and sold "mainstream" desktop OSes on the market.
Most new software is sold for these OSes, not OS 9 or Win
95/98/ME/NT/2000. So let's compare "usage share" for these two OSes
only, shall we? If we take a combined figure of 210,000,000 (I'm being
generous and using your 200 million figure for XP users), and calculate
the percentage of OS X users from that, we get about 4.8%. Which is just
about that 5 percent Steve Jobs keeps talking about. Interesting, no?

The other thing to consider here is that usage share is kind of
meaningless anyway if you don't consider HOW the computers are being
used. Many PCs are used as bank terminals, cash registers, and boring
business desktops running spreadsheets or databases. Apple doesn't
really sell to those sorts of markets (although I've seen Macs used for
many of those purposes). If you compared Apple's market share in the
specific industries in which Apple has typically been strong (such as
the creative sector, of course, as well as education -- although that
market has gotten a bit tricky of late), you'll find a LOT of Macs being
used, and you'll find a lot of third-party software being sold. You may
sneer at niche markets all you like, but that's where most of the fun
is. Boring "beige" cubicle machines are hardly worth getting all excited
about. Also, Joe Blow home user who surfs the Web and writes some e-mail
and Word documents and that's about it isn't exactly a target for
spending lots of money on hardware and software. Someone who buys a $300
computer is obviously not trying to do the "digital hub" thing since a
single digital video camera that's any good is probably twice that price!

The point is that Apple sells to customers who are the type of people
who can spend good, honest money on exciting, "different", and
innovative products. That segment of the population will always be
small. But thank God they're out there. At least somebody still has the
guts to buy a computer system that doesn't have a Dell logo on the
outside, an Intel logo on the inside, and a Microsoft logo on the
screen. Perish the thought.


Jan 27, 2004, 05:00 AM
First of all, he cannot even count: 10/1000 is 1% and not 0.1%, as mauti just said.

Second of all, counting OS X users vs. all PC users is absurd. My guess would be that there are just as many Mac users running OS X, as there are Win users running XP (~40%)

So... The real math is 25 million Mac users vs. 500 million Windows Users, which is more like 5%

/ f

[mod. edit - Don't try to circumvent the profanity filter.]

Jan 27, 2004, 04:47 PM
Someone on one of these threads quoted Thurott as saying today's nasty MyDoom virus is a "virus spread by UNIX mail servers"!!!

Anyone have a link to him actually saying that? If he did, I guess he's right, UNIX mail servers, just like Windows ones, will transmit mail... and that mail may contain viruses. ALL mail servers pass on whatever email the admins decide to let through. This is a Windows virus, carried over the Internet by ALL types of mailserver but ONLY infecting and reproducing on Windows! Yet MS's paid journalist spins it like it's a UNIX virus :) Throw in mention of an attack on a major UNIX vendor (SCO--and not by UNIX insecurity but by DoS) and MS comes out smelling clean :)

Now THAT's credibility!

(I wouldn't have given the guy hits if I knew the link was TO Thurott instead of against him.)