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Thanatoast
Jan 27, 2004, 12:36 AM
Fairly straightforward question: when does apple reach market saturation with their ipod? I mean, sure there are only 2 million out there now, but they are really taking off now, and really, how many people can afford $300 mp3 players, no matter how cool they are?

And how much turnover is there with current ipod owners? I have a 2g 20 gig, and I would love a 3g 20 gig, but that's a lot of cash to lay out. Even if my ipod were to break, I couldn't justify buying another one. Does apple only get one sale per customer every (insert uninterrupted lifespan of ipod here)?

Which leads to the next question: what is apple cooking up next? Ipod was a pretty good stopgap, to keep revenues up while the g5 was getting worked out, but will apple now go back to just selling machines?

Macgamer1096
Jan 27, 2004, 02:13 AM
I like your questions and my personel oppinions are that Apple is trying to change into a leading computer manufacturer but in so doing found that they hit pay dirt with one great idea, well i suppose two with iTunes Store, and has some good ideas, and even more importantly, better ways to do them.

As for the future, I feel that exact question is the sole creator and driving force of this very website for which we both and all can enjoy.

But if you ask me face to face the next big thing I'll tell you a hot cheap ($999) twentieth anniversiary Cube G4 or 5 now that that smaller (90nm) Xserve is out.

Actually i think that the iPod won't reach saturation because of it's price. Thats why when the Mini came out and when everyone got the price everyone was dissapointed.
The truth is if Apple sold anything cheap that was selling well it would be a cold day in hell. That is why they have always kept the same price but made revisions to highten a products sale factor but when it comes right down to it they like change in computers but not in price.
Thats not a well respected or utilized philosophy as evident by the 3% Total market share on computers. sigh the futre has to better than this.:rolleyes:

MacBandit
Jan 27, 2004, 02:17 AM
I don't think it will. As long as Apple keeps updating the iPod with new features the majority of buyers will eventually upgrade.

TimDaddy
Jan 27, 2004, 02:37 AM
I've bought two. My first one was stolen, luckily it was insured. If not, I would still have bought another. I would have just waited a few more months for a tax refund or bonus. If the mini ever drops to say $199, I'll probably buy my wife one. My son is six years old, he may want one in the future. My other son is only four, but he likes a lot of music. Everything from Brooks and Dunn to R. Kelly to Guns N Roses. (Guess he got that from me.) He'd love one right now, but there's no way he's getting something that expensive at this age. Plus, he can't read yet. My household has bought two and may potentially by three more over the next several years. But, as a family of Mac fans, my house isn't typical.
By the way, I do censor his music. I pick out clean songs that he likes and burn him discs. He has a little $20 protable CD player and he loves to jam in the back seat of the car.

MacBandit
Jan 27, 2004, 02:47 AM
Originally posted by TimDaddy
I've bought two. My first one was stolen, luckily it was insured. If not, I would still have bought another. I would have just waited a few more months for a tax refund or bonus. If the mini ever drops to say $199, I'll probably buy my wife one. My son is six years old, he may want one in the future. My other son is only four, but he likes a lot of music. Everything from Brooks and Dunn to R. Kelly to Guns N Roses. (Guess he got that from me.) He'd love one right now, but there's no way he's getting something that expensive at this age. Plus, he can't read yet. My household has bought two and may potentially by three more over the next several years. But, as a family of Mac fans, my house isn't typical.
By the way, I do censor his music. I pick out clean songs that he likes and burn him discs. He has a little $20 protable CD player and he loves to jam in the back seat of the car.

I don't think you are unique just because your a house hold of Mac users. I think this is pretty typical for those people that get iPods and like them. It seems like once one is infected with the iPod virus you are doomed to spread it to whoever you can. Not that that's a bad thing.:D

Pseudonym
Jan 27, 2004, 05:28 AM
Another benefit of the iPod is that gets Apple hardware into the hands of non Apple users. There must be a few of them that will have another look at Apple computers on the back of being very pleased with their iPod. When I switched at the beginning of last year one of the things that made me look at Macs was the existence of the iPod. It adds credibility to the whole digital hub thing.

Sony's approach to saturation with gadgets like its Clie range is to continually update and bring out new models. Eventually it hits on the 'must have' that gets people to upgrade. With the iPod, if you upgrade you get to keep the ther one as a firewire HD so all is not lost!

mj_1903
Jan 27, 2004, 08:06 AM
Personally I think 5-10 million sales at that price point is quite doable. As Apple keeps taking over the lower end market another 10 million could come from that.

My family has 6 iPod's (4 me, 2 my brothers) and my parents are looking into buying one now as well. Most of my friends now have iPod's and several of my cousins have them or are getting them.

I reckon in Sydney alone they could possibly sell between 100k to 150k and we only number 4mil.

gwuMACaddict
Jan 27, 2004, 08:40 AM
Originally posted by mj_1903
My family has 6 iPod's (4 me, 2 my brothers)

why do you have 4!? :D

and i don't think the market can get saturated... its like asking if the computer market is saturated... i mean, most everyone has a computer, and most everyone keeps buying new ones every few years

rueyeet
Jan 27, 2004, 09:49 AM
Originally posted by Thanatoast
Fairly straightforward question: when does apple reach market saturation with their ipod? I mean, sure there are only 2 million out there now.....how many people can afford $300 mp3 players, no matter how cool they are?

And how much turnover is there with current ipod owners? Well, 2 million is not a whole lot, really; the corporation I work for (which shall remain nameless :) ) services 30 million consumer households and we're only in half the states in the USA. I'd guess those 2 million iPods are probably concentrated in the highest-income areas of the country, and also probably around the Apple Stores, but there's going to be PLENTY more people to sell to for quite a while.

As to turnover....well, I'm eyeing a mini, and haven't decided yet whether to keep my old 10 GB or use it to finance the mini.

I do hope Apple does have something really new and exciting up its sleeve for the Mac's 20th anniversary year, regardless of whether it's released anywhere near the actual anniversary date.

MacBandit
Jan 27, 2004, 12:53 PM
Originally posted by gwuMACaddict
why do you have 4!? :D

and i don't think the market can get saturated... its like asking if the computer market is saturated... i mean, most everyone has a computer, and most everyone keeps buying new ones every few years

A huge part of the PC sales decline a few years ago was due to market saturation of new cheap fast pcs. No one felt inclined to upgrade because their current model was not that old and was more then capable to do what they needed. The market for people that push their computer to the limit and actually have a need to upgrade regularly is very very small. The vast majority of computer users do little more then word processing and email.