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MacBytes
Oct 8, 2008, 08:55 AM
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Category: Opinion/Interviews
Link: You're Crazy to Be Selling Apple (http://www.macbytes.com/link.php?sid=20081008095533)
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chicagdan
Oct 8, 2008, 10:28 AM
You're not *crazy* to be selling anything in this market. We're in a global recession ... you want to be selling consumer products in a global recession? With credit markets like they are right now?

Apple will survive just fine and long term will thrive ... but it's going to be a dark and nasty 2009 ... you'd be stupid to just hold Apple stock now ... it's probably heading further south.

ensoniqdap
Oct 8, 2008, 12:20 PM
You're not *crazy* to be selling anything in this market. We're in a global recession ... you want to be selling consumer products in a global recession? With credit markets like they are right now?

Apple will survive just fine and long term will thrive ... but it's going to be a dark and nasty 2009 ... you'd be stupid to just hold Apple stock now ... it's probably heading further south.


If the Apple, and presumably the stock, are going to "survive just fine and long term will thrive" then WHY SELL NOW??? I would view the market conditions as an opportunity to buy MORE shares.... This way when the market DOES turn around... I am sitting with MORE shares than those I have now...

Belly-laughs
Oct 8, 2008, 01:22 PM
of course, but why buy now if you can get them cheaper if you wait?

AlphaBob
Oct 8, 2008, 01:29 PM
Seems to be the strategy these days. Lots of folks bought Apple at $190 now rushing to sell at $90.


If you feel that Apple will survive the downturn, then the ONLY reason to sell Apple stock now would be to book a capital loss, then repurchase the stock 31 days later. The risk is that the stock might be more expensive 31 days later, converting a theoretical loss into a real one. On the other hand, should the stock go lower still (and it might), then you will feel great buying it back at a cheaper price.

Anybody trying to time the market right now is a fool. No telling what prices will be like 5 minutes from now, let alone 5 weeks, months or years.

chainprayer
Oct 8, 2008, 07:56 PM
*short sold

ayasin
Oct 8, 2008, 08:35 PM
What AlphaBob said.

winmacguy
Oct 9, 2008, 12:00 AM
As I bought in 2005 @ $72 a share I am still happy to hold as I also have the rapidly decreasing NZ/US exchange rate currently working in my favour. I have been deliberating on the subject for the past couple of months but am happy to wait it out as I didn't borrow any cash to by the shares so I will just wait it out till the market sorts itself out. If I sold now I will still do OK but with the exchange rate continuing to drop it would cancel out any gains I might get in the future. When I bought the stock the NZ/US rate was .70 in my favour, currently it is .59 at close of trade and could drop further making it harder to buy back in to get more stocks than what I have now.

donga
Oct 9, 2008, 01:51 AM
didn't they ban short selling for the near future?

also, any recs on when to buy appl?

winmacguy
Oct 9, 2008, 04:10 AM
didn't they ban short selling for the near future?

also, any recs on when to buy appl?

I read today that the band ends shortly or has already ended. When to buy AAPL? - once it has bottomed out @ say $50-60 a share or what ever it goes down to. If you have a crystal ball start rubbing it. ;)

ensoniqdap
Oct 9, 2008, 05:43 AM
of course, but why buy now if you can get them cheaper if you wait?

Well, if your investing strategy utilizes "dollar cost averaging", while you will pay more for some shares, you guarantee your self a starting point for later profits.

Example:
(trade fee is $7.00)

Buy 10 shares at $100.00 plus trade fee= $1,007.00
Buy 11 shares at $ 90.00 plus trade fee= $ 997.00
Buy 12 shares at $ 80.00 plus trade fee= $ 967.00
Buy 20 shares at $ 50.00 plus trade fee= $1,007.00
_____________________________________________
Have 53 shares at a total cost of $3,950.00 for the shares alone or $3,978.00 w/ 4 trade fees.

at Dollar Cost Average of:
$74.53/share without trade fees
$75.06/share with trade fees

So when you sell, if you sell all at once, you will incur one additional trade fee, which would be APPROXIMATELY $7.02 to sell 53 shares making your cost $3,985.02 with 5 trade fees which works out to $75.19 per share.

When looking to sell the stock, as long as the sale price is above $75.19, you're making a profit.

Yes, you COULD have waited to buy when it got down to $50.00/share but what if it didn't. If it went from $100.00, you decided to wait, then it goes to $94.00 and you decide to wait then it goes to $140.00... you're S.O.L.

I had this happen to me in 1993 on an "inexpensive stock", a Home Builder stock... The shares were approximately $5.00, I didn't think they were going to go up, they did.. at $100.00/share "I couldn't afford them" they went still higher... I WAS kicking myself early 2004/2005 when that stock broke $900.00share... (it HAS since come down to a current price of ONLY $548.15)

ensoniqdap
Oct 9, 2008, 05:45 AM
didn't they ban short selling for the near future?

also, any recs on when to buy appl?

Not on all stocks, only on a "short list" of 965 or so stocks, those considered "risky or vulnerable" (and Apple & Microsoft are NOT on that list)

From Scottrade.com
"The Security and Exchange Commission's temporary ban on short selling in certain financial companies expires on Wednesday evening (Oct. 8) at 11:59 p.m. ET. Scottrade will begin allowing short sale order entry for these securities beginning at 7 a.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 9."