Obama not doing 'quite' as well as we'd hoped?

[geese]

Hmmm, the Gallup polls puts Obama only 2 points ahead of McCain, taking into account 'traditional' voter behaviour. What do you make of this?

Gallup is presenting two likely voter estimates to see how preferences might vary under different turnout scenarios. The "expanded" model determines likely voters based only on current voting intentions. This estimate would take into account higher turnout among groups of voters traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and minorities. That model has generally produced results that closely match the registered voter figures, but with a lower undecided percentage, and show Obama up by six percentage points today, 51% to 45%.

The "traditional" likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections. Today's results show Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain using this likely voter model, 49% to 47%, this is within the poll's margin of error.

http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2BDaily.aspx

[wordmunger]

Fivethirtyeight, one of the most respected polling sites on the web, gives some perspective (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1016.html) on the Gallup poll:

None of the dozen or so other polls that were in the field this week shows a race that close. Nor do either of the alternate versions of Gallup's model, including the so-called Likely Voters II model that I find most credible. (Drudge, of course, had no interest in featuring the Zogby poll, as he had for the past several of days on his site, but which today showed Obama gaining ground.)

Let me be clear: I don't blame Drudge for trying to drive the narrative. Unlike certain other folks, it's not as though he's made any claim to being objective. With real news -- which polls aren't -- he generally has excellent and entertaining instincts.

I do, however, blame those of who allow yourselves to have your day ruined when Drudge moonlights as some kind of polling analyst.

Here's their take on the new results:

A fairer way to analyze tracking polls, in any event, is something like this: McCain gained ground in three of the seven trackers today (Gallup, Rasmussen, Battleground). He lost ground in one (Zogby). Three others (Research 2000, Hotline, IBD/TIPP) were unchanged.

That could indicate a slight tightening toward McCain, who also had gained ground on average in the tracking polls yesterday. It could also indicate statistical noise. What it probably does not indicate is any dramatic shift in the momentum of the race.

[Cleverboy]

Obama not doing 'quite' as well as we'd hoped? Not everyone in this forum hopes he'll do "well". Also, polls are a relativistic measure of voter behavior. As long as you're measuring in the same way, it gives you a picture of voter trends. If you keep altering the criteria, you're not sure WHAT you're looking at... but you're certainly not looking at a crystal clear predictor of who'll when. It sounds like Gallup is measuring a few different changing things there.

~ CB

[takao]

don't forget that not only the media makes more business with a close race but also gallup etc.

reminds me of 2006 around here where it was a close race between the biggest 2 parties for months and then it was a margin with like 6-7% for the biggest party at the election

[geese]

OK, I rephrase: not as well as *most of us here* would like!

Ach, it seems like its a bit more difficult to predict Democrat voter behaviour, according to that Gallup page, as they are loss likely to vote. It seems unlikely that McCain will win from this side of the pond, but i dont know you crazy lot are thinking over there.

[sellitman]

As long as we use Republicon made voting machines with a hidden source code we will have Republicon Presidents. Voting and silly things like polls don't matter much. Sorry to burst your bubble.

[obeygiant]

As long as we use Republicon made voting machines with a hidden source code we will have Republicon Presidents. Voting and silly things like polls don't matter much. Sorry to burst your bubble.

Republicon? Is that like Democrap? :)

No one should worry, Obama is going to win.

[Roderick Usher]

No one should worry, Obama is going to win.
Yep. It's kind of a paradox: we shouldn't take his victory for granted - but at the same time, we know that his field organizers will be working as hard as ever to register and bring out voters in these last days, which is what propelled him to victory over Clinton and put him as far ahead as he is now. So, I'm not assuming anything, but at the same time, I'm not at all worried.

Polling is going to tighten because polling always tightens at the end. It's not going to change the fundamental dynamics of the race, and we should all remember that when the talking heads on CNN or MSNBC are shrieking "What does this meeeeean?" Oh, and never mind that the Drudge Report cherry-picked the result of one poll that was a huge outlier among a dozen others.

Kind of funny how long it took for us to see a campaign that knows that, to get votes, you go directly after the voters... get bodies out there, knocking, organizing, calling... not just broadcasting messages over the airwaves hoping they'll convince people. Obama's is the first campaign I've seen that's organized with as much thought and detail as a giant corporation - but run with a lot more efficiency and discipline.

Too late, the McCain campaign realizes that its ground operations were crap, so they're pulling out their final ineffectual stops: McCain on Letterman, Palin on SNL, robo-calls designed to scare voters. Heck, I got one last week (the previous tenant of my apartment was apparently a registered Republican or something) about Obama's "connection" with Bill Ayers, and then another one this week about how he wants to raise my taxes.

Don't take this election for granted. But don't worry, either. Chicken-Littles will be howling in the last few days and you should pay them no mind. The work that actually needs to be done to win this election - the work that Obama and his colossal operation have been doing from the beginning - the only work that actually matters - is continuing to be done. That is all you need to know.

[emw]

Don't take this election for granted. But don't worry, either.I don't think I'd classify it as being worried, but I am concerned about past history and the results of the 2000 and 2004 elections.

While I think that Obama has put out his plans very clearly, and has been fairly open about his relationships (name a politician without something in their past than can be stretched into a "problem"), and I believe he has the character and competence to be our next president, there are many who still have questions.

This election has been in process for what, almost 2 years? And 8-12% of voters still claim to be "undecided". What is left to know? It's that amazing level of indecisiveness that has me concerned.

As well as my complete and utter lack of confidence in anything polls tell me. ;)

[djellison]

Hmmm, the Gallup polls [/url]

Given the warped system in the US - a poll doesn't mean anything on its own - you have to feed it thru the electortal college system.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

That currently reads
Obama 352 McCain 171 Ties 15

[Thomas Veil]

As Roderick Usher says, polls tend to tighten up nearer to the election.

Nevertheless I checked other polls, and they seem to be holding steady. No reason to worry yet.

And if you are still worried, don't forget that Obama has Biden and the Clintons out campaigning for him, he's outspending McCain by a 3-1 ratio, he's still going to be addressing the country in a 30-minute paid infomercial, and the Supreme Court has overturned the Ohio GOP's challenge to recent voter registrations. (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27238980/)

[geese]

Cool- so far, so good. I've never understood the issues with the voting machines though- do states count votes differently? Do they all have different set ups? (eg with voting machines?) Could there be issues with the voting machines as in 2000?

[Thomas Veil]

Oh yeah. Every state has something different. In fact, counties have differences. Some use paper, some use those humongous machines, some use electronic touchscreens.

No matter what method people use, there will be controversies. The Diebold machines were supposed to eliminate such controversies, but as you know they just created more of their own. What happens this year remains to be seen.

[Peace]

My gut feeling is the diebold disaster won't really matter as much this election.

I'm with Bill Clinton. Regardless of polls I believe it's going to be a landslide for Obama.


But PLEASE STILL VOTE.

gosh darnit:D

[Counterfit]

The Diebold machines were supposed to eliminate such controversies, but as you know they just created more of their own. What happens this year remains to be seen.

Diebold makes optical-scan machines as well. They're used in Rhode Island, and thankfully leave a paper trail.

[Thomas Veil]

Here's why I think McCain is making gains in the polls.

McCain is attacking him on three fronts: Ayers, ACORN and "socialism". Right now, Obama is defending himself from all three charges, and doing a good job of it too. But that's still the problem.

Obama's on defense. He's not on offense. He's letting McCain take it to him, and he's defending, but he's not the one taking it to McCain.

Having had a fairly sizable lead, he's now playing it safe. He's playing a prevent defense, and as a Cleveland Browns fan, I can tell you that the prevent defense cost us two trips to the Superbowl. (Thanks, Marty Schottenheimer!)

Obama needs a topic with which to slam McCain. Something to change the subject and the momentum and put McCain on the defensive. Though at the moment I confess I have no idea what that might be.

[NT1440]

Here's why I think McCain is making gains in the polls.

McCain is attacking him on three fronts: Ayers, ACORN and "socialism". Right now, Obama is defending himself from all three charges, and doing a good job of it too. But that's still the problem.

Obama's on defense. He's not on offense. He's letting McCain take it to him, and he's defending, but he's not the one taking it to McCain.

Having had a fairly sizable lead, he's now playing it safe. He's playing a prevent defense, and as a Cleveland Browns fan, I can tell you that the prevent defense cost us two trips to the Superbowl. (Thanks, Marty Schottenheimer!)

Obama needs a topic with which to slam McCain. Something to change the subject and the momentum and put McCain on the defensive. Though at the moment I confess I have no idea what that might be.

Isn't it sad that we live in a place where politics is played like a football game? Attacking an opponent (with mostly falsehoods and things that have nothing to do with how the country will be run) somehow gets you ahead in the polls.

sad.

(yes i realize thats pretty much how it goes in politics, it doesnt make me feel any better tho.)

[Peace]

Isn't it sad that we live in a place where politics is played like a football game? Attacking an opponent (with mostly falsehoods and things that have nothing to do with how the country will be run) somehow gets you ahead in the polls.

sad.

(yes i realize thats pretty much how it goes in politics, it doesnt make me feel any better tho.)

Just remember one thing.

McCain started this fight.

[Thomas Veil]

Hold everything.

They did it. They handed Obama a great issue.

Now they're trying to drag our own troops into their slimy smears (http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/19/palin-obama-experimenting-with-socialism/):

Saying once again that "it's not negative campaigning" to question Obama's associations, Palin turned up the heat on the Democrat over his past ties to ACORN, and said the group — accused of fraudulently registering thousands of voters — is trying to steal a basic freedom that American military forces overseas are fighting to protect.

“We've sent our young men and women over to a war zone to protect our rights and our freedoms," she said. "A part of that is our right to free and fair elections. How dare anyone try to take that away from the good Americans who are fighting for us to ensure all of that?”Man, I hope Obama runs with this. It's sickening. :mad:

[NT1440]

Hold everything.

They did it. They handed Obama a great issue.

Now they're trying to drag our own troops into their slimy smears (http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/19/palin-obama-experimenting-with-socialism/):

Man, I hope Obama runs with this. It's sickening. :mad:

:rolleyes: I wasnt aware that we were in that war so we could vote here.

I LOVE when Mccain tries to make ACORN out to be an evil organization, yet he gave a speech to them only a few years ago.....

Mayb he doesnt view it as hypocrisy because he knows that the allegations are far reaching lies?

[macfan881]

id like to see what the polls are tomorrow after the powell endorsement i seriousy think this is something that is gonna give him a few points ahead out of all the gallup polls and possibly could move independent voters as well

[NT1440]

id like to see what the polls are tomorrow after the powell endorsement i seriousy think this is something that is gonna give him a few points ahead out of all the gallup polls and possibly could move independent voters as well

I dont think its gonna get alot of new votes, just reaffirm the decision made by current obama supporters.

Lets just hope that as many of us as possible get to the polls this time instead of getting over confident and relying on others to do so.


*disclaimer: i cannot vote this election :(

[it5five]

*disclaimer: i cannot vote this election :(

Find someone who is eligible to vote and make sure they get out to the polls if they otherwise wouldn't have. Offer a ride/whatever to their polling location. You can still have an impact by helping make sure people get out to the polls and vote.

[63dot]

Here's why I think McCain is making gains in the polls.

McCain is attacking him on three fronts: Ayers, ACORN and "socialism". Right now, Obama is defending himself from all three charges, and doing a good job of it too. But that's still the problem.

Obama's on defense. He's not on offense. He's letting McCain take it to him, and he's defending, but he's not the one taking it to McCain.

Having had a fairly sizable lead, he's now playing it safe. He's playing a prevent defense, and as a Cleveland Browns fan, I can tell you that the prevent defense cost us two trips to the Superbowl. (Thanks, Marty Schottenheimer!)

Obama needs a topic with which to slam McCain. Something to change the subject and the momentum and put McCain on the defensive. Though at the moment I confess I have no idea what that might be.

I think McCain's attacks are going to come back and bite him because most people have grown tired of negative ads. McCain is obviously a desperate candidate trying everything and it shows.

Our country is moving in a decidedly liberal direction and McCain failed to realize this and showcase his differences from Bush. He simply didn't switch gears from talking to the true neo-con believers at the GOP convention then to the majority of Americans who are moderate to liberal.

It's far too late for McCain to address the liberals, moderates, and reluctant conservatives angry with George W. Bush. McCain basically ffed himself. It's Monday morning two weeks before the election and fivethirtyeight.com, now being quoted by CNN, has his chances at 6.9% percent to win.

Some think Palin bombed on SNL and that Powell's endorsement may help Obama. If any of those are true, then McCain is doomed even more than he is now.

[synth3tik]

polls (even gallop) are ungodly inaccurate and misleading. I can never take them into account.

[NT1440]

Find someone who is eligible to vote and make sure they get out to the polls if they otherwise wouldn't have. Offer a ride/whatever to their polling location. You can still have an impact by helping make sure people get out to the polls and vote.

:p No rides from me, I dont have a license yet.

I do spread the word however, and more importantly, shoot down those who decide to spread forth GOP missinformation and smears.

[Thomas Veil]

...Some think Palin bombed on SNL and that Powell's endorsement may help Obama. If any of those are true, then McCain is doomed even more than he is now.I don't know. I never underestimate the Republicans, nor the gullibility of the voting public.

I do think the Powell thing will help. If Powell lets him, Obama should run clips from that interview Powell gave in a series of commercials. I also think Obama should run with the YPM scandal as a counter to the ACORN charges, and he should also emphasize how Palin is using the troops as a cheap political tool.

BTW, without regard to whether the polls are accurate, does anybody disagree that Obama should be more on offense than defense (as I mentioned in post #16) in these closing weeks?

[pseudobrit]

The McCain team has come completely unglued.

He ran a horrible campaign, sold his soul to the base and the party bosses, cut off the novel media access and has lost the election.

A proper postmortem of this election cycle will show McCain's fatal flaw: he was beaten by the GOP establishment in 2000 for being too independent, so over the next eight years he quietly and humbly sold out, waited patiently for his turn and now finds that the 8 years of loyal service in the tainted shadow of George W. Bush, while surely winning him the party nomination, has cost him the election.

[63dot]

Ok, now with about two weeks to go, electoral-vote.com has Obama's projections at a better than 2-1 margin over McCain.

Fivethirtyeight.com has McCain less likely than a mere 7% percent for winning the whole thing.

Really, how much better can Obama do in electoral votes? 3-1?

Landslide, baby!

[emw]

I don't know. I never underestimate the Republicans, nor the gullibility of the voting public.

Indeed. We are the sound-bite nation - anything that's easy to latch onto, such as associating Obama's tax plan with socialism - is much more likely to stick than the details behind Obama's plan that show it has nothing to do with socialism.

Americans, in general, do not want details. They want catch phrases.

Even the fact that McCain is still able to leverage Joe the Plumber even though it's been proven that this guy is a liar and a tax evader, and millions in his supposed position, would get a tax cut and that Obama's plan is not disastrous for small business, people just hear the lies spewed by the McCain camp.

Same with ACORN. Voter fraud? Please. Bad decision making on their part to pay people by the number of registrations, but nothing to do with anything that would actually result in fraud at the voting booth.

Why is that such a difficult concept for people to grasp?

[macfan881]

well new Gallup polls are out obama is up 52-41 among registerd Voters and among likely voters is 52-43 :D

[mactastic]

Obama needs a topic with which to slam McCain. Something to change the subject and the momentum and put McCain on the defensive. Though at the moment I confess I have no idea what that might be.
How about voter fraud? Does it matter if it's not actually voter fraud, but rather voter registration fraud? Hasn't mattered so far to the Repubs, so I can't see why anyone would complain if Obama started using the same charge against McCain.

McCain is totally responsible for the voter fraud in SoCal. Hell, this guy is trying to destroy the very fabric of democracy and rig the elections, don'tcha know. You betcha!

[plinden]

polls (even gallop) are ungodly inaccurate and misleading. I can never take them into account.

Pollsters have a business obligation to get as close as possible to the real numbers. It does Gallup or Rasmussen or Zogby no good for future business if they release polls that are 5% off the final numbers.

Of course, it pays them short term to report numbers that reflect the wishes of whoever's paying for the polls, but expect the final polls in the last couple of days to be no more than 1% off the real result.

But the main reason they're all over the place (although they're not really - all are about 4-7% lead for Obama) is that they never know whether they should replay the last election or consider whether this one is going to be any different.

I do remember a lot of talk in 2004 about how inaccurate the polls were since they couldn't include cell phone users in their numbers ... that gave Dems some hope but it seemed to make no difference in the end. The pollsters are going through the same thing this time. Historically, Democrats, minorities and younger and newly registered voters are less likely to vote. But will this year be any different, considering the enthusiasm Obama is generating? Perhaps, let's hope so. But as long as he maintains a lead among the traditional voters, he's going to win. Anything extra is gravy.

[Thomas Veil]

well new Gallup polls are out obama is up 52-41 among registerd Voters and among likely voters is 52-43 :DGood to hear.

Everybody around here is celebrating, and a few weeks ago, I was feeling pretty damn cocky myself. But now that it's getting closer I have to admit to being edgy. I keep having these flashbacks; four years ago next week we were all talking confidently about what President Kerry's administration was going to be like.

Edit:

Okay, this kind of stuff is gonna give me ulcers over the next two weeks:

Obama opens 6-point lead (http://www.reuters.com/news/video?videoId=92461&videoChannel=1)
Oct. 20 - A new Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll shows Barack Obama has expanded his national lead over Republican John McCain in the U.S. presidential race.CNN Poll: Race may be tightening (http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/20/cnn-poll-race-may-be-tightening/)
In a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Monday, 51 percent of likely voters questioned Friday through Sunday back Barack Obama for president, with 46 percent supporting John McCain. That 5 point advantage for Senator Obama, D-Illinois, is down from an 8 point edge he held over Senator McCain, R-Arizona, in the last CNN/ORC national poll, conducted October 3-5.

[63dot]

Good to hear.

Everybody around here is celebrating, and a few weeks ago, I was feeling pretty damn cocky myself. But now that it's getting closer I have to admit to being edgy. I keep having these flashbacks; four years ago next week we were all talking confidently about what President Kerry's administration was going to be like.

Edit:

Okay, this kind of stuff is gonna give me ulcers over the next two weeks:

Approx. a week before the election, similar to now, Kerry and Bush were pretty much tied in the EV within a statistical margin of error, and same with Gore and Bush.

This time, Obama's lead in EVs is a 2-1 margin that has held for weeks now, and even a just a5 point popular vote lead, is beyond a margin of error and the worst Obama is likely to do is win this thing by 50 EVs.

The popular vote lead approaches 7% percent, and sometimes surpasses 7%, and the trends and projection are still on the rise (as of Sunday 13:28 EST, leaving 8.4 days left until the polls open) and I suppose Obama's percentage and EVs will be much higher than that. But I too am edgy as the day comes closer as any Democrat should be even though this past week has been a disaster for McCain-Palin, and the week before was not pretty for the GOP either. Starting tomorrow, the GOP needs to start some damage control and a lot can be done in one week, but a comeback from this point would be historical for McCain and it just doesn't look likely since he completely lacks the charisma and "it" factor of a republican legend like Reagan or Gingrich. Both Reagan and Gingrich had the ability to say stupid things but have the stigma fall off of their said statements. McCain and Palin have everything stupid they say stick and piss of Americans, even Republicans. :)