The PRSI election prediction self-imposed exile fun thread.

[.Andy]

With less than a week to go and PRSI threads proliferating like mad let's have some fun by raising the stakes behind all those assertions and predictions. The concept is simple;

(1) Nominate your pick for who is going to win the US election in this thread.
(2) If you're wrong ban yourself from posting in PRSI for two weeks. You can read but no posting. No matter how riled up you get....
(3) Participation is totally your choosing. If you want to be a sissy terrorist appeasing socialist marxist fascist coward who is soft on crime and has scant morals by not taking part so be it.
(4) If you break your promise you will be open to ridicule (within forum rules of course) and named and shamed.


To kick off:
I'm in for an Obama win. If he loses you'll all be graced with a two-week period completely lacking my atrocious PRSI posts (to the likely detriment of the other sub-forums :)).

Please PM me if I've got something wrong....

Obama
.Andy
Peterkro
ReanimationLP
Abstract
raggedjimmi
yoppie
Brad.c
pseudobrit
iShater
Queso
Sky Blue
jplan2008
iParis
SMM
Legolamb
Prof.
Mike Teezie
chilipie
scotthayes (+ an extra 2 weeks. This is predicting with substance)
zap2
Watabou

Biden
apsterling

Bobb Barr
Much Ado

McCain

Non-committal Comedy Prediction (bonus points for these)
brad.c

[Peterkro]

I'll go Obama but I think it's going to be a narrow victory.I hope sincerely I'm proved wrong and it's a landslide.

[ReanimationLP]

I'm going Obama.

Though the man has terrible taste in cellular phones.

[Abstract]

Obama, but only because the other guy, and the ditzy lady with the $150k wardrobe who he chose as the potential VP, don't seem competent or honest.

[Dagless]

Obama, but only because the other guy, and the ditzy lady with the $150k wardrobe who he chose as the potential VP, don't seem competent or honest.

Same here.

I'm going for Obama, but then again I already come here for the reads than the writes.

[MacDawg]

Most people feel Obama will win, the polls show it, etc.

To make it more interesting there should be a point spread listed, not just a win outright

Woof, Woof - Dawg http://homepage.mac.com/k.j.vinson/pawprint.gif

[yoppie]

$5 on Obama.

[Counterfit]

Obama, but only because the other guy, and the ditzy lady with the $150k wardrobe who he chose as the potential VP, don't seem competent or honest.
Something something Bush/Cheney something something.
To make it more interesting there should be a point spread listed, not just a win outright

Heck, might as well do an over/under for the 3rd parties too!

[pseudobrit]

I guaranteed an Obama win months ago. I'd bet my life savings on it. I'd bet borrowed money on it.

[iShater]

I guaranteed an Obama win months ago. I'd bet my life savings on it. I'd bet borrowed money on it.

I'll be your life savings and your borrowed money and call it a hedge fund. :p

Obama.

I shall grief in silence if pinky and the brain win.

[Queso]

Hussein of course :p

[Sky Blue]

damn, I thought this was going to be an EV prediction thread.

Obama's my pick.

Here's my EV Prediction:

http://idisk.mac.com/mike.rice/Public/Pictures/Skitch/Pick_Your_President_-_2008_Election_Contest_%7C_washingtonpost.com-20081029-112704.jpg

[Blue Velvet]

I think it's going to be Barack Obama. However, the polls in terms of popular vote are definitely tightening. Republicans are coming home and I don't think it's going to be a landslide.

In terms of predicting an exact result, there are too many unknowables at the moment. One of the stated aims of the Obama campaign was to expand the electorate to groups that may have not been registered, may have been casual voters, or may have lacked motivation in the past. Overall, turnout may break records; there have been reports in various states of expanded poll opening hours and additional machines having to be in place.

The Obama Get Out The Vote campaign with its nationwide network of offices is unprecedented in scale, no one really knows how it will perform, but if indications of early voting are an example, then Democratic turnout may be higher in the order of 30-80% depending on the state.

Polling has been all over the place. Many groups, particularly the young, are less likely to be polled due to being cellphone users. Sampling populations on party ID in some cases have been based on turnout in the last election, particularly Zogby. Internals in many polls show a marked and consistent gap between voter enthusiasm for each preferred candidate, which apparently is a key indicator to turnout.

Even the exit polling on Tuesday night is up in the air due to a heavy run on early voting by newly registered Democrats where exit interviews may undersample Dem votes that already have been banked.

Even though national polling is tightening, the RNC have now moved money for advertising into Montana and North Dakota in a defensive maneuver, and state polling in Georgia and Arizona shows unexpected tightening.

In addition to that, there are countless reports of Republican voter suppression tactics in states such as Pennsylvania, Colorado and Ohio, to name a few. There are going to be some busy poll workers and lawyers on Tuesday.

Allegedly, both campaigns are calculating a 70%/30% split for John McCain in undecided's last minute decisions, mostly due to Obama being black. In short, to quote a recent McCain campaign adviser: and then there are the imponderables.

Early states to watch for calls: Virginia, Ohio, Florida.

This is the overall gist I get from various electoral and political sites.

[apsterling]

Biden.

Cause Obama will probably get assasinated, and McCain'll probably die within three weeks of election.

[Cleverboy]

McCain'll probably die within three weeks of election. Psst. Don't look now, but the election it next week... so posting this comment today sounds a bit askew.

~ CB

[jplan2008]

Obama's my pick.

Here's my EV Prediction:



Obama.

I'd add Nevada, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio, 1 EV in Nebraska to your EV's for Obama, for a total of 365 for Obama. I'm hoping for another 10 EV's from somewhere (preferably Arizona, although I don't think it's likely), since 375 is considered an electoral college landslide for whatever arbitrary reason.

I think Obama will win by 5+ points in popular vote.

[iParis]

Obama.

I greatly dislike people who want McCain to win.
I would probably respect them if they actually had some reasons.
But most of the people I've talked to are just ignorant and hate Obama and just give a bunch of bullshiit.
I wish there was someone who would give me some God honest answers for why McCain should be president.

If McCain does happen to win me and my friends are going to save up some money and move to Canada, then eventually the UK.
If McCain wins and then dies soon after America will be screwed having Palin run the country.

Biden.

Cause Obama will probably get assasinated, and McCain'll probably die within three weeks of election.

They will most likely tighten security.
When I went to an Obama rally the TSA was there as well as snipers on the roof tops.

[Peace]

My Prediction. And if this scenario doesn't happen I'll leave the PRSI for a week.:)

[Sky Blue]

Obama.

I'd add Nevada, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio, 1 EV in Nebraska to your EV's for Obama, for a total of 365 for Obama. I'm hoping for another 10 EV's from somewhere (preferably Arizona, although I don't think it's likely), since 375 is considered an electoral college landslide for whatever arbitrary reason.

I think Obama will win by 5+ points in popular vote.

Nevada - yes, NC - maybe. I don't trust Ohio :mad:

[SMM]

Obama. If McCain wins, I will be too sick to post anyway.

[Legolamb]

I was at the Habs/Hurricanes game yesterday (Habs won!!!) and there was a projection of a quote by Scotty Bowman (former NHL coach).
"There is nothing as uncertain as a sure thing".
I'm going with Obama, but.........

[Much Ado]

A surprise victory for Bob Barr, with McCain a close 2nd. Nader will bag the popular vote, though.

[yoppie]

A surprise victory for Bob Barr, with McCain a close 2nd. Nader will bag the popular vote, though.

LOL. You might want to get a head start on the 2 weeks. :p

[brad.c]

I'm going to go with Atheism for the win, although God will have the popular vote. Allah will call for a recount, and Buddha will already start campaigning for the next life.

If I'm right and can prove it, I will try to post, but I'd be dead and therefore non-existent. If I'm wrong, I'll abstain from posting in the religious forums for two weeks, but I will be in Hell, so would be posting from my new Vista PC.

EDIT: I didn't include Agnosticism, because they don't vote.

Obama, ironically written in white.

[.Andy]

To make it more interesting there should be a point spread listed, not just a win outright

Woof, Woof - Dawg http://homepage.mac.com/k.j.vinson/pawprint.gif

damn, I thought this was going to be an EV prediction thread.

Obama's my pick.

Here's my EV Prediction:

I was thinking of doing this but have absolutely no idea how it works or how a prediction thread would be implemented. Perhaps you guys could start a thread explaining it? Could be a bit of fun.....

[aethelbert]

When I went to an Obama rally the TSA was there
Seriously? The TSA is the last group that I would ever trust my security to. And it's not like their business is protecting politicians.

[Prof.]

My hope is in Obama/Biden.

Here are my electoral predictions.:)

Oh, BTW, if any of you are going to the Obama Party in Chicago, I'll see you there. (That is if i get the job with ABC News)

[Mike Teezie]

Put me in for Obama.

I've been a heavy PRSI lurker here since I joined this forum six(!) years ago, so an exile wouldn't be too bad. Though if I lose, I'll probably be spending the next two weeks at the bottom of a bottle anyway......

[chilipie]

Obama ftw.

[scotthayes]

I'll go for a Obama/Biden win.

I'll even add a a little extra and if I'm wrong I'll stay out for an extra two weeks.

Al Franken to beat norm coleman and Kay Hagen to beat dole.

Oh and here is my almost final map


EDIT - Oh yeah, I'll be in Newport RI next week, so when Obama wins, beers are on me...

[zap2]

Obama....

[Blue Velvet]

I don't like anchovies by the way...

Domino's Pizza also gives us these stats:

Republicans

• Spend more per order than other consumers.
• They rely on credit cards to pay more than other consumers.
• They tend to order two large pizzas at a time, and they're usually specialty pizzas.
• They are more likely to order online, and more likely to pick up their orders.

Democrats

• Rely on delivery more than Republicans.
• Pay cash more than other consumers.
• Like more variety with their orders, opting for side items, chicken and beverages more than Republicans.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/pizza_and_politics_dems_like_v.php

:::

The current 7-11 Coffee Cup Poll stands at 60% Obama, 40% McCain.
http://www.7-election.com/

:::

Weekly Reader Children Presidential Poll

Obama with 54.7 percent of the vote. Sen. John McCain received 42.9 percent, and the "other" category pulled in 2.5 percent.

Comments from students:

• I like McCain because he loves pets like I do.
• Hey! Where is the girl?
http://www.placeropolis.com/detail/97276.html

[iShater]

So according to Domino's I'm almost a Republican! :eek:

[apsterling]

Psst. Don't look now, but the election it next week... so posting this comment today sounds a bit askew.

~ CB

I meant it as in Post-Election, sorry for the unclearness

[Watabou]

Obama.

Here is my prediction: http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/president/whos-ahead/key-states/map.html#/map=9sb_M

[Iscariot]

I don't like anchovies by the way...

Domino's Pizza also gives us these stats:


Now I want pizza :(

[.Andy]

I've upgraded the OP. This is what we have so far;

2 weeks for NObama
.Andy
Peterkro
ReanimationLP
Abstract
raggedjimmi
yoppie
Brad.c
pseudobrit
iShater
Queso
Sky Blue
jplan2008
iParis
SMM
Legolamb
Prof.
Mike Teezie
chilipie
scotthayes (+ an extra 2 weeks. This is predicting with substance)
zap2
Watabou

2 weeks for Biden his time
apsterling

2 weeks for Bobb Barr's moustachio
Much Ado

2 weeks for McCainity

Non-committal Comedy Prediction (bonus points for these)
brad.c


Where's the bravery from the McCain supporters? It's an Obama whitewash so far in the predictions.......

[Peace]

I've upgraded the OP. This is what we have so far;

2 weeks for NObama
.Andy
Peterkro
ReanimationLP
Abstract
raggedjimmi
yoppie
pseudobrit
iShater
Queso
Sky Blue
jplan2008
iParis
Peace (1 week soft ;)) remove this please. Or re-word NOBama
SMM
Legolamb
Prof.
Mike Teezie
chilipie
scotthayes (+ an extra 2 weeks. This is predicting with substance)
zap2
Watabou

2 weeks for Biden his time
apsterling

2 weeks for Bobb Barr's moustachio
Much Ado

2 weeks for McCainity

Non-committal Comedy Prediction (bonus points for these)
brad.c


Where's the bravery from the McCain supporters? It's an Obama whitewash so far in the predictions.......

I have already voted for Barack Obama.

[.Andy]

I have already voted for Barack Obama.
I deleted you and will now reflect on your sense of humour in my meditation chamber.

[Peace]

I deleted you and will now reflect on your sense of humour in my meditation chamber.

Sorry .Andy I hadn't read the OP. DO'H!

With so much going on now it's getting hard ( for me at least ) to start at the top.

What got me was when you changed the original post from "OBama" to "NObama"

It sounded like another extremist label..

[.Andy]

Sorry .Andy I hadn't read the OP. DO'H!

With so much going on now it's getting hard ( for me at least ) to start at the top.

What got me was when you changed the original post from "OBama" to "NObama"

It sounded like another extremist label..
No probs Peace those extremist threads are proliferating like crazy lately. I was trying to keep it light-hearted by using terrible candidate monikers (for all persuasions). Shoot me a PM if you'd like to be back in :).

I feel like I need to come and give you a shoulder massage or have a beer with you to cool your boots lately! I can sense your campaign tension from here in Australia ;).

[brad.c]

Non-committal Comedy Prediction (bonus points for these)
brad.c

Hey, how can you be more committal than calling the victor in a theoretical deity smack-down? But as for the relevant vote-at-hand, I did cast a secret ballot. Heah, and back thea.

Obama/Biden/o-Mama!

[.Andy]

Kudos brad.c :D. I can't believe I fell for the old covert text. A mistake of an amateur!


edit: I'll leave your bonus points in play and award you another. You're now two up on everyone :).

[emw]

I'm waiting on line now to vote for Obama. And,not surprisingly, I predict he'll win.

[yrsonicdeath]

I'll wager my posting privileges and put in another for Obama.

[atszyman]

I refuse to put myself into exile. It was hard enough when I had like 12 posts and the 100 post rule was put into effect in 2004. Of course now I've got 2000+ posts other than my PRSI (I'd hate to see my total with PRSI included) and we just upgraded our internet to 10 Mbps at home so I'd hate to have to curb usage after only a week.

[scu]

x

[Counterfit]

EDIT - Oh yeah, I'll be in Newport RI next week, so when Obama wins, beers are on me...

I don't have my usual rehearsal tuesday night, so I'm going to take you up on that. :D

[.Andy]

Here's the rundown so far. Combined we have 54 weeks of self-imposed exile up for grabs. That's a lot of person hours :). Imagine all the terrible posts that would would be prevented if we all lost. And a special thanks to scu being the first (and only?) person with guts enough to put their name under the McCain heading....

Obama 23 people so far.
.Andy
Peterkro
ReanimationLP
Abstract
raggedjimmi
yoppie
Brad.c
pseudobrit
iShater
Queso
Sky Blue
jplan2008
iParis
SMM
Legolamb
Prof.
Mike Teezie
chilipie
scotthayes (+ an extra 2 weeks. This is predicting with substance)
zap2
Watabou
emw
yrsonicdeath

Biden
apsterling

Bobb Barr
Much Ado

McCain
scu

Non-committal Comedy Prediction only 1 person :(
brad.c

Prevented from taking part due to ability to post to PRSI at 10Mbps.
atszyman

[jplan2008]

I
In New Hampshire during the primary Obama was beating Hillary by an average of 7 points on election day. He ended up losing by 2 points. Hillary supporters will decide this race not the Republicans.



Sorry, I appreciate your bravery, but New Hampshire was the only state with those kinds of results. (and Hillary supporters aren't going to vote for McCain/Palin in large numbers). Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com analyzed the primaries -- the averages at pollster.com before the primaries vs. Obama's performance at the polls:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/persistent-myth-of-bradley-effect.html

On average, Barack Obama overperformed the Pollster.com trendline by 3.3 points on election day.

There are some important differences by region. Using regions as defined by the US Census Bureau, Barack Obama overperformed his polls by an average of 7.2 points in the South. This effect appears to be most substantial in states with larger black populations; I have suggested before that it might stem from a sort of reverse Bradley Effect in which black voters were reluctant to disclose to a (presumed) white interviewer that they were about to vote for a black candidate.

Obama also outperformed his polls in the Midwest and the West (although there is not much data to go on in the latter case). The one region where Hillary Clinton overperformed her numbers was in the Northeast, bettering the pre-election trendline by 1.8 points. Recall that the Bradley Effect phenomenon describes covert rather than overt manifestations of racism. It may be that in the Northeast, which is arguably the most "politically correct" region of the country, expressions of racism are the least socially acceptable, and that therefore some people may misstate their intentions to pollsters. By contrast, in the South and the Midwest, if people are racist they will usually be pretty open about it, and in the West, which is nation's most multicultural region, there may be relatively little racism, either expressed or implicit.

The good news for Barack Obama is that, among the Northeastern states, only New Hampshire appears to be competitive -- and Obama would gladly trade a Bradley Effect in New Hampshire for a reverse Bradley Effect in a state like North Carolina. (Pennsylvania, it should be noted, is also defined by the Census Bureau as being in the Northeast, but in terms of political demography, it shares far more in common with the Midwest).

[mark!]

Obama.

[Much Ado]

Non-committal Comedy Prediction only 1 person :(

Glad to know that Bob Barr counts as a serious prediction :)

[brad.c]

What, did McCain win early and the self exile has already begun?

[Counterfit]

What, did McCain win early and the self exile has already begun?

I fully intend on trying to take up scotthayes' offer of free beer. :D

[brad.c]

Canada is happy: it's chair looks better in blue.
Welcome to the social!

I kid, I kid.

[scotthayes]

I fully intend on trying to take up scotthayes' offer of free beer. :D

The offer is still there.


Looks like my possible two week exile will have to wait until the Franken/Coleman result is confirmed.