Obama on top, less than 1 week, CNN electoral college projecton from 277 to 286 [Archive]

Cleverboy

Oct 29, 2008, 10:21 PM

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/29/poll.wednesday/index.html?iref=mpstoryview
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/
In a CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. survey released Wednesday, 53 percent of likely voters questioned say Obama is their choice for president, with 45 percent backing Sen. John McCain. That 8-point lead for Obama is double the 4-point advantage he held in a similar poll two weeks ago.

"Older voters in Colorado have started to break Obama's way," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "Two weeks ago he was losing the over-50 crowd by a couple of points. Now he has a 5-point edge among them."

The new numbers in Colorado, along with similar findings from other new polls in the state, are factors in CNN's move of Colorado from a toss-up state to an Obama on CNN's new electoral college map.

CNN is also changing Indiana from leaning McCain to toss-up.

A new CNN poll of polls in Indiana suggests McCain holds a 2-point lead over Obama in a state that hasn't voted Democrat in a presidential election since 1964. The poll of polls is an average of the latest state surveys.
How accurate do you folks think CNN's projection will be? It's interesting that the national polls (and popular vote) is tightening, but the state poll advantages are widening. The oddest phenomena to me.

Historical projections from CNN:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/09/map.past.elections/index.html

CNN has Clinton vs Bush, Clinton vs Dole, Gore vs Bush, and Kerry vs Bush. Visually, there are a lot of large states that have gradually gone republican over the last handful of elections. Are we going to see someone "reset the clock", and have the map appearance closely resemble the Clinton victory... or be even more starkly contrasted in the amount of blue states?

~ CB

ucfgrad93

Oct 29, 2008, 10:44 PM

Since you have an article that uses Colorado voters, I thought I would chime in with some statistics. As of today, 42.9% of active registered voters have already cast their ballot either by mail in or early voting. This is huge I believe. With only 2 more days of early voting, I believe that more than half of the active registered voters will have cast their ballots before election day.

Without early voting across the country, election day would have been total chaos.

www.govotecolorado.com

Cleverboy

Oct 30, 2008, 12:05 AM

Without early voting across the country, election day would have been total chaos. Amen to that. I voted early, and I have such a peace of mind. There was a news piece I was listening to with one voter commenting on how much more relaxing it is to have 2 weeks to vote at your leisure, rather than ganging up on one day. She was out shopping with her young daughter at the time. I thought that was great.

~ CB

ucfgrad93

Oct 30, 2008, 12:17 AM

Amen to that. I voted early, and I have such a peace of mind. There was a news piece I was listening to with one voter commenting on how much more relaxing it is to have 2 weeks to vote at your leisure, rather than ganging up on one day. She was out shopping with her young daughter at the time. I thought that was great.

~ CB

With all of the options for voting this year, there really isn't any excuse for not voting. I know in Colorado, early voting has been going on since October 20th. and will have lasted for 11 days by the time it ends on Friday. In addition, there is mail in ballots which you don't have to state a reason for using. Lastly, there is election day. So truly anyone with a desire to vote can vote.

leekohler

Oct 30, 2008, 12:28 AM

63dot

Oct 30, 2008, 01:43 AM

both 277 and 286 are enough to win, but Obama probably has well over 300 electoral votes with just 4 days 22 hours left. I venture to say he has 350 electoral votes approximately doubling John McCain's projection.

fivethirtyeight.com gives Obama 344 EVs.

electoral-vote.com gives Obama 364 EVs.

I think the Obama informercial will give Obama a few more EVs projected for him within two or three days. Who knows? 375? 400?

EDIT: noon Oct. 30, EST, Obama's numbers have dipped a tiny bit and now it's a projected 5.4% percent race come election day with less than 4.5 days left. This scares me. I hope Obama's 1/2 point loss wasn't related to the infomercial last night. By tomorrow, I hope to see an upward trend again for Obama.

That being said, while Wisconsin has softened for Obama and Arizona has increased for McCain, Obama's electoral-vote.com prediction is upped to 375 EVs. It's more EVs held, but held more loosely. Georgia is still McCain and that bums me, but Mississippi is trending in Obama's direction and it's the first gulf state, besides Florida that is showing some blue movement. There is certainly no way that the south can be considered a red voting block with the context of the White House race, Senate races, and House races. If anything, the south is purple heading towards blue.

Anuba

Oct 30, 2008, 09:48 PM

63dot

Oct 31, 2008, 01:31 AM

After a couple more states have now been upgraded from "tossup" to "leaning Obama", McCain can no longer win even if all the tossup states go to his column. He can get a maximum of 247 electoral votes, if CNN's projection is anything to go by. Even if you give him Iowa, Nevada and Colorado, all currently leaning Obama, he's still 2 EV's short of 270.

With 94 hours, 28 minutes left until polls open up on some East Coast states, things are not looking rosy for John McCain, and the odds of him winning are less than 4% percent according to fivethirtyeight.com. I will not celebrate until November 4th, which will probably be a landslide for Obama but can possibly, but not probably, be a slight EV win.

It's not over until it's over. There is the extremely unlikely, but possible scenario that CNN brought up of a huge Obama lead early in the day in November 4th based on projections, and then having complacent west coast voters thus stay at home giving McCain Washington, Oregon, and California and thus making the GOP win the White House. While this is extremely unlikely, imho, CNN did a show detailing this very possibility. I sure hope this does not happen.

Sometimes people don't vote for a "sure" winner and sit it out...just think Jennifer Hudson from American Idol when she was voted off early as many thought her to be a favorite for the final but simply didn't vote for her thinking she was "safe".

The same thing can possibly, but not probably, happen to Obama on November 4th. Heavy early voting can hold off McCain should he capture California.

yojitani

Oct 31, 2008, 01:43 AM

After the last two elections, I am worried about republican vote tampering shenanigans. I won't hold my breath for the outcome of this one.

63dot

Oct 31, 2008, 01:48 AM

After the last two elections, I am worried about republican vote tampering shenanigans. I won't hold my breath for the outcome of this one.

With a pretty longstanding 2-1 EV advantage over McCain, the GOP would have to tamper on a biblical scale to change this election. What can you do with 94 hours remaining before the floodgates are let loose?

If McCain wins fair and square, without hard core vote tampering, I will sadly accept his presidency for at least the next four years. If the American people legitimately pick McCain, then it's the choice of the people. But if McCain greatly tampers with the voting infrastructure, I am moving to Canada!

Vote tampering on that large of a scale pretty much amounts to being in a tin horn dictatorship which can lead to a lawless zone. Having been in the middle of a religious war in a poor nation under desperate circumstances as a missionary, I do not ever want to see that again, especially in my backyard of the USA. I will likely move.

szark

Oct 31, 2008, 02:09 AM

I don't think that California voters will stay home. Not with the highly controversial Prop. 8 on the ballot.

I'm hoping that every state has record voter turnout this year.

63dot

Oct 31, 2008, 02:15 AM

I don't think that California voters will stay home. Not with the highly controversial Prop. 8 on the ballot.

I'm hoping that every state has record voter turnout this year.

Many states will have record turnouts, but what are the chances that "all" 50 states will have a record turnout? I think the chances are very slim for all to have that record turnout concurrently. I hope my fellow Californians turn up to vote in '08 in record, or near record numbers.

Anuba

Oct 31, 2008, 06:06 AM

With a pretty longstanding 2-1 EV advantage over McCain, the GOP would have to tamper on a biblical scale to change this election. What can you do with 94 hours remaining before the floodgates are let loose?

If McCain wins fair and square, without hard core vote tampering, I will sadly accept his presidency for at least the next four years. If the American people legitimately pick McCain, then it's the choice of the people. But if McCain greatly tampers with the voting infrastructure, I am moving to Canada!

Vote tampering on that large of a scale pretty much amounts to being in a tin horn dictatorship which can lead to a lawless zone. Having been in the middle of a religious war in a poor nation under desperate circumstances as a missionary, I do not ever want to see that again, especially in my backyard of the USA. I will likely move.
What worries me more than occasional illegal vote tampering, are all the legal methods of voter suppression. All this arbitrary legislation that differs from state to state, and how you can challenge votes, drag the whole thing to court, sue... those are the real "banana republic" trademarks of the US voting system.

Here's how it works in my country: All eligible voters automatically get a voter certificate by certified mail. On the certificate, your designated voting location is printed. You show up at the location and flash your ID and the certificate. They give you an empty envelope. You go into a booth, take a ballot for the party you want to vote for, place it in the envelope and seal it. Then you go up to a counter and show your ID (again) and hand over the certificate and the envelope. They drop the envelope in a sealed ballot box, take your certificate and shred it, go into the records and remove your name from the list of people who have not yet voted.

It's pretty failsafe and there is no possibility of registration fraud, because, well, there is no voter registration part. And voter fraud is virtually impossible (you'd have to falsely identify yourself as the real voter 3 times). And it can't be hauled to court and challenged. In the last election, there was a 82% turnout, 5.5 million votes were cast in the last election, and only 2,000 (0.3%) of those were spoiled.

jplan2008

Oct 31, 2008, 10:38 AM

There is the extremely unlikely, but possible scenario that CNN brought up of a huge Obama lead early in the day in November 4th based on projections, and then having complacent west coast voters thus stay at home giving McCain Washington, Oregon, and California and thus making the GOP win the White House. While this is extremely unlikely, imho, CNN did a show detailing this very possibility. I sure hope this does not happen.

Well, considering the fact that Oregon does 100% of its voting early, the scenario of Oregon voters staying home on election day because Obama's winning in other states is idiotic. And I'd say the same for the rest of their scenario.

chrmjenkins

Oct 31, 2008, 11:00 AM

In reference to CA, I just moved here and got my registration in the mail yesterday :D I'm glad to be able to vote on so many props, and have thankfully decided on all of them.

As for this election, I think all projections will fall short. There's too many new variables. Huge increases in voter registration, increased participation from younger voters, effect of race, gravity of the domestic situation, voters who can't be reached via a land-line.

Quite frankly, I don't think any of the polling models can keep up with all the new things going on. I wouldn't be surprised to see a leaning Obama or leaning McCain state go the other way because of that state's particular situation. It should be an interesting night, and hopefully I can go to bed knowing Obama will be our next President.

63dot

Oct 31, 2008, 02:33 PM

Well, considering the fact that Oregon does 100% of its voting early, the scenario of Oregon voters staying home on election day because Obama's winning in other states is idiotic. And I'd say the same for the rest of their scenario.

That's why CNN calls this scenario unlikely.

Polls of how people who already voted in North Carolina show a huge boost for Obama. Winning North Carolina is by no means a complete barometer. :)

With 82 hours left until election, and a 5.5% percent advantage for Obama according to fivethirtyeight.com "at election day", I can't say that it will be a pure landslide with a capital "L". Any "ten percent" poll lead attributed to Obama is probably overestimated. fivethirtyeight.com puts the number at 6.5% percent today, and that's looking at all the major polls in general, as opposed to Zogby/CNN, which has always seemed to show a higher number than the others for Obama. Why that is, I don't know, but while it looks like a win of around 300+ EVs for Obama, it's not going to be 400 EVs as a 10% percent popular vote lead would suggest. Reagan had a 12-14 point lead over Mondale and got well over 400 EVs, so double digit leads are not in the cards for this election.

Personally, I would love to see Obama get 450 EVs. :)

63dot

Oct 31, 2008, 02:36 PM

Personally, I would love to see Obama get 450 EVs. :)

OK, OK, I will dream - 460 EVs, 465?, anybody for 470? :)

83 hours ago showed Obama with 364 EVs with no upward movement, and it still stands at 364 EVs, and we have 81 hours left until election starts so I don't think Obama will get 460, 465, or 470 EVs unless McCain is caught in bed with Palin or something. :)

The one thing I do like is that McCain's gain in Arizona over the last 48 hours has been erased. He originally led his own state by a mere 5 percentage points, and then increased that lead to 6 points, but now it stands at 5 points. If this election were held November 11th instead of November 4th, Obama would capture Arizona and really stick it to McCain. I guess McCain would have to retire to Alaska or Utah, the only two states that have stayed loyal to him in an unwavering fashion over the past month. Alaska would be too cold for Arizonan McCain, but I suppose McCain could live in Orrin Hatch's guest house. :)

PowerFullMac

Oct 31, 2008, 02:40 PM

Obama '08!!!!

63dot

Oct 31, 2008, 02:51 PM

Obama '08!!!!

You think? :)

PowerFullMac

Oct 31, 2008, 02:53 PM

You think? :)

Indeed I do! :)

Seems obvious he is gonna win at the moment, lets hope it stays that way :)

63dot

Oct 31, 2008, 07:57 PM

Indeed I do! :)

Seems obvious he is gonna win at the moment, lets hope it stays that way :)

75 hours, 58 minutes until the floodgates are open

By noon on tuesday PST, if projections hold, news agencies will call this all over.

When I went to vote in 1992, all the news networks projected Bill Clinton winner and it was still early afternoon (3 pm) on the West Coast. He wasn't officially deemed winner until some hours later when votes were confirmed and West coast and Hawaii polls were closed, but the outcome was pretty much 99.7% percent sure based on projections.

But back to this election, Obama's numbers are holding, but McCain's numbers, while not changing on most fronts are now showing an overall win chance of 2.5% percent at fivethirtyeight.com. It was slightly higher yesterday while all other numbers remained the same. Why is that? I am not a forecaster/better, but what else changes odds outside of popular vote and Electoral Vote projections? Anyway, I am happy for Obama.

rdowns

Oct 31, 2008, 08:36 PM

News agencies no longer project winners that early as it discourages voting. They were also bitten by initially calling Florida for Gore in 2000. They will call states only when the polls close.

63dot

Oct 31, 2008, 08:49 PM

News agencies no longer project winners that early as it discourages voting. They were also bitten by initially calling Florida for Gore in 2000. They will call states only when the polls close.

There was a huge debate over that at ABC. Some wanted to report percentages of precincts in and who was winning, some wanted to report only after that state closed polling. And some others only wanted to talk about projections (on ABC talk radio) only after Hawaii closed its polls.

That radio station got in some trouble when they announced the winner of Survivor Season 1 a week early and I told all my friends. They were shocked when I was right and I never watched the show. :)

Some believe in freedom of press while others believe that it is wrong to influence the election by telling the truth by listing early returns from eastern states. Personally, I want to know the truth as it comes in. I am not as fickle to vote or not vote based on who is "projected" to win because it's still only a projection and not a final count tally.

Unfortunately, the ABC newstalk host doesn't come on until 10 PM EST and by then, his "prediction" will already be old news by then. The 4 PM EST time host may hint as to the trend. But as it stands there is no law against it and freedom of speech rules the day.

As I was reading my Con Law textbook, I was all with it until I read the part about how some of the most liberal judges allowed hate groups to speak, even though every time that it happened people got hurt in riots, though sometimes only minor assaults and batteries. I have kind of a love hate relationship with the ACLU on that one. :)

macfan881

Oct 31, 2008, 10:58 PM

63dot

Nov 1, 2008, 12:13 AM

Cnns news electoral map that was updated Thursday has obama at 291 They moved CO NV and NM to leaning obama Arizona is going from Safe McCain to leaning McCain "wow that would be embarrassing if McCain lost his home state :)". and i don't rember if NC was before this post started NC is now a toss up

When Gore didn't take his own state, the GOP got mileage off of that one and used it as ammo for years.

Now the shoe is on the other foot, almost.

Let's say Obama wins Arizona, which is barely McCain with a 5% percent lead as of now, 12:10 a.m. Saturday morning EST. If by Tuesday 72 hours from now when the polls open in some Eastern states there will be building momentum in the east and southeast for Obama, and then the gap in Arizona could fall below 4% percent as some on the fence voters may go Democrat at the last second, then there is that statistical possibility/margin of error that Obama can take Arizona and that's what I am hoping for. This scenario is somewhat unlikely but I check Arizona's status twice a day. As for the national status, it's been Obama over McCain for most of the summer and fall so there is no surprise there.

UPDATE: 59 hours 44 minutes until election and Obama got one more point closer to taking Arizona and is within four points of tying McCain on his own turf. Obama's overall fivethirtyeight.com EV projection of 364 still stays the same with no gains of any new states. McCain has gained a couple of states that were tied though and pushes towards 200 EVs. National registered voters that have already voted stand at 58% percent Democrats and 42% percent Republicans so either the GOP will show up late, or show up in record low numbers conceding defeat, or showing a distaste towards W and punishing McCain for it. Well no wonder why McCain doesn't want W on the campaign trail (anybody watch SNL opener last week?) :)

Anuba

Nov 3, 2008, 06:24 PM

fivethirtyeight.com now has Obama at a win chance of 98.1%, the highest yet (it was down to 94.6% only a few days ago).

atszyman

Nov 3, 2008, 06:34 PM

Let's say Obama wins Arizona, which is barely McCain with a 5% percent lead as of now, 12:10 a.m. Saturday morning EST. If by Tuesday 72 hours from now when the polls open in some Eastern states there will be building momentum in the east and southeast for Obama, and then the gap in Arizona could fall below 4% percent as some on the fence voters may go Democrat at the last second, then there is that statistical possibility/margin of error that Obama can take Arizona and that's what I am hoping for. This scenario is somewhat unlikely but I check Arizona's status twice a day. As for the national status, it's been Obama over McCain for most of the summer and fall so there is no surprise there.

I could see it happening easily. If Obama wins big on the east coast, voting in the GOP strongholds in the west could taper off as they see the inevitability of Obama winning, especially if Obama pulls the trifecta of FL, OH, and PA, making it almost impossible for McCain to pull a win without pulling a strong blue state.

I could see AZ, SD, and MT going blue as the late GOP voters just stay home as results come in and look bleak for McCain.

Of course there's a wild scenario out there where doing well on the east coast leads to complacency on the west and Dems staying home handing McCain CA and the win. I see AZ being more likely than CA since Obama seems to have a more motivated base in this election which could have people voting for him regardless of the early results.

jplan2008

Nov 3, 2008, 08:13 PM

I could see it happening easily. If Obama wins big on the east coast, voting in the GOP strongholds in the west could taper off as they see the inevitability of Obama winning, especially if Obama pulls the trifecta of FL, OH, and PA, making it almost impossible for McCain to pull a win without pulling a strong blue state.

I could see AZ, SD, and MT going blue as the late GOP voters just stay home as results come in and look bleak for McCain.

Of course there's a wild scenario out there where doing well on the east coast leads to complacency on the west and Dems staying home handing McCain CA and the win. I see AZ being more likely than CA since Obama seems to have a more motivated base in this election which could have people voting for him regardless of the early results.

People in California aren't going to stay home in numbers that big (Obama's up 24 points there). There's Prop. 8, and there's excitement for Obama (although there may be more stupid PUMAs there than anywhere). Looking at the New Mexico early voting and polls, I'm thinking I should have gone all in for Obama in the prediction thread with Arizona for Obama. Arizona is redder, but not that much redder than New Mexico. I don't see South Dakota, or did you mean North?

atszyman

Nov 4, 2008, 12:04 AM

People in California aren't going to stay home in numbers that big (Obama's up 24 points there). There's Prop. 8, and there's excitement for Obama (although there may be more stupid PUMAs there than anywhere). Looking at the New Mexico early voting and polls, I'm thinking I should have gone all in for Obama in the prediction thread with Arizona for Obama. Arizona is redder, but not that much redder than New Mexico. I don't see South Dakota, or did you mean North?

I did mean South Dakota. North is already a dead heat statistically (via Pollster (http://www.pollster.com) and SD is only leaning McCain. Since they straddle CST and MST time zones they could suffer GOP voter apathy after east coast numbers start coming in, same goes for ND and MT.

I could see McCain losing his weak states since they're in later time zones, while most of Obama's weak states are in the EST and CST time zones making them less likely to suffer from apathy due to the east coast results.

I do like it that Obama only needs his strong states plus 5 more which he can get from any of the weak or swing states (a few where he'd have to win more than one) but he has all the options while McCain has to get every swing, plus pick off some states that are leaning Dem.

But I was confident in 2000 and 2004, I'm wary about tomorrow and will likely not be happy until the number 270 is reached for sure.

it5five

Nov 4, 2008, 12:31 AM

Of course there's a wild scenario out there where doing well on the east coast leads to complacency on the west and Dems staying home handing McCain CA and the win. I see AZ being more likely than CA since Obama seems to have a more motivated base in this election which could have people voting for him regardless of the early results.

Someone already talked about the CA ballot measures, but here in Arizona we also have a gay-marriage one (would amend the state constitution to define marriage), and many important down-ticket elections. The Presidential race isn't the only important one for us Arizonans.

jplan2008

Nov 4, 2008, 12:36 AM

I did mean South Dakota. North is already a dead heat statistically (via Pollster (http://www.pollster.com) and SD is only leaning McCain. Since they straddle CST and MST time zones they could suffer GOP voter apathy after east coast numbers start coming in, same goes for ND and MT.

But I was confident in 2000 and 2004, I'm wary about tomorrow and will likely not be happy until the number 270 is reached for sure.

South Dakota has an abortion ban on the ballot (a near total ban, with only exceptions for rape, incest, and "serious" threats to a woman's health -- unconstitutional under current law -- it's meant to challenge Roe v. Wade). I don't think the conservatives in SD will stay home, unfortunately.

I'm hoping for a different kind of tears than the past 2 elections. I volunteered for Kerry (local Democrats, Kerry's campaign wasn't in my county) before election, and knew he was in bad shape between his small presence in Florida and the reactions from voters. It's completely different this year volunteering for Obama's campaign -- but we'll know in 24 hours (I hope).

gotzero

Nov 4, 2008, 12:39 AM

it5five

Nov 4, 2008, 12:43 AM

There are many states that have marriage initiatives on the ballot. CA is important because it would overturn the state supreme court ruling, and annul marriages that have already taken place. If Prop 8 passes, I hope it goes off like a rocket right towards the supreme court and we take care of this blemish on our culture once and for all. The resistance to equal rights for orientation is going to be my generation's embarrassment, and I am looking forward to apologizing for the past instead of the present.

The polls are all converging and showing a beatdown. If there is anything but an Obama win now, what it is going to tell us is that the polls do not work.

Unfortunately, gay marriage is already illegal in Arizona, but for some reason bigots feel like it needs to be in the constitution. Like you, I hope the Supreme Court settles the matter once and for all to put an end to the constant ballot initiatives every major election. Without it, the conservatives wouldn't have such a big voter-draw.

CalBoy

Nov 4, 2008, 01:00 AM

CA is important because it would overturn the state supreme court ruling, and annul marriages that have already taken place.

That is actually up to interpretation, and many legal scholars in the Bay Area tend to think that the marriages between June and tomorrow would actually still stand.

If Prop 8 passes, I hope it goes off like a rocket right towards the supreme court and we take care of this blemish on our culture once and for all.
We would probably lose at the moment. We need time to let the tide turn and for some new faces to come to the bench.

The resistance to equal rights for orientation is going to be my generation's embarrassment, and I am looking forward to apologizing for the past instead of the present.

Out of curiosity, what generation are you in?

to put an end to the constant ballot initiatives every major election. Without it, the conservatives wouldn't have such a big voter-draw.

In my relatively short time as a voter, I've come to despise the referendum process. I'm convinced that it's simply the worst form of politics.

gotzero

Nov 4, 2008, 01:08 AM

That is actually up to interpretation, and many legal scholars in the Bay Area tend to think that the marriages between June and tomorrow would actually still stand.

We would probably lose at the moment. We need time to let the tide turn and for some new faces to come to the bench.

Out of curiosity, what generation are you in?

In my relatively short time as a voter, I've come to despise the referendum process. I'm convinced that it's simply the worst form of politics.

Depending on the ever-changing generational borders, I am the end of X or the start of Y.

I believe that the supreme court would look at the issue as one of civil rights. Anyway, "going off like a rocket" to the supreme court still means a decade or two... ;)

CalBoy

Nov 4, 2008, 01:20 AM

Depending on the ever-changing generational borders, I am the end of X or the start of Y.

I'm guessing that means you were born in about 1980?

Then you aren't going to be the generation to blame for this in a few decades.

If you want a generation to blame, look to the Baby Boomers. They had the chance to change the world when they inherited the political reigns. What did they do? Nothing.

I believe that the supreme court would look at the issue as one of civil rights. Anyway, "going off like a rocket" to the supreme court still means a decade or two... ;)

A case generated today would likely get to the Court within a 4-year time span. If Prop 8 was appealed directly (since the CA Supreme Court already heard the case), it would likely get there within a year.

gotzero

Nov 4, 2008, 01:24 AM

I'm guessing that means you were born in about 1980?

Then you aren't going to be the generation to blame for this in a few decades.

If you want a generation to blame, look to the Baby Boomers. They had the chance to change the world when they inherited the political reigns. What did they do? Nothing.

A case generated today would likely get to the Court within a 4-year time span. If Prop 8 was appealed directly (since the CA Supreme Court already heard the case), it would likely get there within a year.

I am not worried about the blame, I think we should be blamed. My parent's generation did not cause racism, but they have grown up during desegregation, and were the first to truly understand, as a generation, how wrong segregation was. It believe the same will be said about my generation. We will be able to watch homosexuality during and after institutional discrimination, and hopefully arrive at the conclusion that we were wrong.

EDIT: Anyway, this is about the presidency. I am glued to fivethirtyeight.com like the rest of the world's quants. It is going to be an interesting day.

atszyman

Nov 4, 2008, 07:15 AM

Someone already talked about the CA ballot measures, but here in Arizona we also have a gay-marriage one (would amend the state constitution to define marriage), and many important down-ticket elections. The Presidential race isn't the only important one for us Arizonans.

South Dakota has an abortion ban on the ballot (a near total ban, with only exceptions for rape, incest, and "serious" threats to a woman's health -- unconstitutional under current law -- it's meant to challenge Roe v. Wade). I don't think the conservatives in SD will stay home, unfortunately.

While I think the ballot initiatives to help turn out voters, there are a large number of voters, like my wife, who only seem to want to get out and vote in presidential elections. That number is not exactly small, I know many people like this. These are the people who could stay home based on the east coast numbers. I doubt that there are enough in any strong red or blue state to flip them, but in the states that only lean red or blue, or especially the swing states, the east coast results could cause some of these voters to stay home, especially if long lines at polling places are present.

Of course it could end up having an effect in the opposite direction, but it seems people are much more enthusiastic about voting for Obama than they are about voting for McCain.