The U.S. economy receded in Q3.

[KingYaba]

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the third quarter of 2008,
(that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to advance estimates released by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.8 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter "advance" estimates are based on source data that
are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3). The third-
quarter "preliminary" estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will be released on November 25,
2008.

The decrease in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from
personal consumption expenditures (PCE), residential fixed investment, and equipment and software
that were largely offset by positive contributions from federal government spending, exports, private
inventory investment, nonresidential structures, and state and local government spending. Imports,
which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

Most of the major components contributed to the downturn in real GDP growth in the third
quarter. The largest contributors were a sharp downturn in PCE for nondurable goods, a smaller
decrease in imports, a larger decrease in PCE for durable goods, and a deceleration in exports. Notable
offsets were an upturn in inventory investment and an acceleration in federal government spending.

Final sales of computers contributed 0.06 percentage point to the third-quarter change in real
GDP after contributing 0.17 percentage point to the second-quarter change. Motor vehicle output
contributed 0.09 percentage point to the third-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 1.01
percentage points from the second-quarter change.

link (http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm)

Christmas is around the corner so personal consumption should jump. Hopefully it keeps a recession away. Anyway, interesting times...

[rdowns]

This was received, on Wall Street, as good news. The numbers were expected to be worse. According to news reports, a 0.5% decline was expected.

[Thanatoast]

I wonder what it looks like without juiced numbers...

[abijnk]

While an oil company set record profits in the same quarter. And McCain wants to give tax breaks to who? Just saying...

[mactastic]

Doesn't this cover the time period in which "Exxon John" McCain claimed that the fundamentals of the economy were strong?

Yeah... about that judgement thing...

[Desertrat]

We notice profits when it's things like gasoline, but ignore it when it's Oreo cookies: Corporations buy input material on term contracts of some sort. If they have a contract at a fixed price, and the market price rises, they're more profitable.

Exxon likely had something like a $90 contract to buy crude; the market rose to $147. Their refining overhead was constant, approximately, but the price of refined products--gas or diesel--went up. So did their profits, and, probably, their stock price. (Could have been a good time to sell your Exxon stock.)

It's the same thing for buyers of wheat or corn or bauxite or whatever. We just don't pay attention to those.

Now, Exxon's profits will drop, due to $65 oil and $2.30 gasoline. Their stock price could drop. (Could be a good time to buy back in to Exxon.)

As far as consumer spending, odds are that this Christmas, the "spree" won't compare at all to last year's. For some, it's money. For others, it's a change in outlook. Even a few in the media are noticing the cultural shift away from consumeritis.

'Rat