McCain leading Florida early Voting [Archive]

Blue Velvet

Oct 30, 2008, 10:15 PM

Let's include a bit more from the same article:

Conducted Oct. 25-27, the Los Angeles Times poll gave Obama a 50-47 lead overall in Florida. Only a tiny fraction of the Florida respondents reported voting early, leaving McCain's lead subject to a wide margin of error. A Quinnipiac University poll, released Wednesday, showed early voters favoring Obama 58-34, another small sample with a potentially wide margin of error.

So, cherry-picking a headline that pleases you doesn't tell the whole story.

Cleverboy

Oct 30, 2008, 10:15 PM

Despite the large black and Democratic turnout (http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/orl-earlyvote3008oct30,0,5283353.story)...
http://www.floridatoday.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=200881029048
I'm Excited:) That could be 1 of 3, if its represents a substantial deficit for Obama to make-up for on election day. McCain needs 2 out of 3 of Florida, Colorado, and Ohio. Sounds like Florida and Ohio could reasonably be in contention. Then he just needs to get Pennsylvania. Bitter, racist, gun-clinging Pennsylvania. He might pull it off yet.

~ CB

aethelbert

Oct 30, 2008, 10:16 PM

Bitter, racist, gun-clinging Pennsylvania.
Don't forget religion.

Cleverboy

Oct 30, 2008, 10:18 PM

Don't forget religion. Yeah... I couldn't work it in to sound negative enough, so I tapped some Murtha. :) Wait... I think I got it... --Then he just needs to get Pennsylvania. Bitter, bible-thumping, racist, gun-clinging Pennsylvania.

~ CB

Blue Velvet

Oct 30, 2008, 10:22 PM

Then he just needs to get Pennsylvania.

A 10 point lead for Obama over an average of 13 state polls over the last 10 days. Unlikely. As unlikely as Obama winning Mississippi.

Obama is currently closer to winning Georgia, Montana or Arizona than John McCain is to winning Pennsylvania.

Cleverboy

Oct 30, 2008, 10:29 PM

A 10 point lead for Obama over an average of 13 state polls over the last 10 days. Unlikely. As unlikely as Obama winning Mississippi. Obama is currently closer to winning Georgia, Montana or Arizona than John McCain is to winning Pennsylvania. Yep. I find irony especially amusing, so don't mind me piling it on thick. ;) That said however, Ed Rendell recently called for Obama and Clinton (http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/articles/2008/10/29/obama_on_defense_in_pa_as_mccain_senses_an_opening/) to make a stop in Pennsylvania again, because McCain/Palin had apparently succeeded in rallying the GOP in the state, and Rendell was concerned. The current spread is at 7-14 points (http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1854739,00.html).

~ CB

squeeks

Oct 30, 2008, 10:39 PM

Let's include a bit more from the same article:

So, cherry-picking a headline that pleases you doesn't tell the whole story.

oops i didnt read the whole article:D

Thomas Veil

Oct 30, 2008, 10:42 PM

That could be 1 of 3, if its represents a substantial deficit for Obama to make-up for on election day. McCain needs 2 out of 3 of Florida, Colorado, and Ohio. Sounds like Florida and Ohio could reasonably be in contention. Then he just needs to get Pennsylvania. Bitter, racist, gun-clinging Pennsylvania. He might pull it off yet.

~ CBRe-read what BV quoted:

Conducted Oct. 25-27, the Los Angeles Times poll gave Obama a 50-47 lead overall in Florida. Only a tiny fraction of the Florida respondents reported voting early, leaving McCain's lead subject to a wide margin of error. A Quinnipiac University poll, released Wednesday, showed early voters favoring Obama 58-34, another small sample with a potentially wide margin of error.Only a tiny fraction of Floridians have voted early, so polls have a wide margin of error.

Heck, I've stayed up watching election results and watched my state go first to one guy, then to the other, then back to the first guy again. It's way too early to draw any conclusions. Don't give up on Florida already.

Cleverboy

Oct 30, 2008, 10:49 PM

Re-read what BV quoted: Only a tiny fraction of Floridians have voted early, so polls have a wide margin of error. I confess to mindlessly advocating for the devil. I'm also not sure how Pennsylvanians will react to rumors that Joe Biden is a vampire (http://www.236.com/video/2008/swiftkids_for_truth_the_real_b_9921.php). I heard they're all very sensitive to comparisons to "Transylvania" and hate it when people bring up the similarity in the name of the state.

~ CB :D

63dot

Oct 31, 2008, 02:12 AM

A 10 point lead for Obama over an average of 13 state polls over the last 10 days. Unlikely. As unlikely as Obama winning Mississippi.

Obama is currently closer to winning Georgia, Montana or Arizona than John McCain is to winning Pennsylvania.

PA is off limits to McCain...93 hours and change, I just dont' think so. PA is Obama territory.

Montana? maybe since it's a tied state. Too close to call.

Arizona, no freakin' way! McCain leads by 3-7 points there and there is very, very little time to affect positive change on behalf of the Democrats. Unfortunately, I have to say McCain will take his own state. I sincerely don't want that to happen. But wouldn't it be a great victory to take Arizona for the Democrats? If there were two weeks left and the trends went the way they have since January, then Obama could decisively take Arizona. But there is not two weeks, or even one week, or even 100 hours before the populated East Coast polls open up in many Atlantic states.

Plus early voting is overwhelmingly Obama. This election is "almost" over but I won't call it for sure until maybe a day before the full tally. But it's 93+ hours and stuff can happen even in that small window.

MacHipster

Oct 31, 2008, 03:07 AM

oops i didnt read the whole article:D

Looking at your past posts, this seems to be a common occurance.

JG271

Oct 31, 2008, 06:02 AM

My understanding is that historically early voting in general has benifited republicans anyway?

Either way, I don't think these polls really mean anything whatsoever.

Anuba

Oct 31, 2008, 06:13 AM

http://washingtonindependent.com/15662/democratic-surge-in-nevada

Nevada Turns Very Blue
Early Voting Reveals Democratic Tilt

RENO, Nev.—Three hours after Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican vice presidential nominee, held a campaign rally down the street, the Washoe County GOP chairwoman Heidi Smith was puzzled as she looked over early-voting numbers. Democrats were turning out in droves.

For decades, Washoe County was considered a lock for Republicans. The last time a Democratic presidential nominee won Washoe County was Lyndon B. Johnson in his landslide of 1964. But last week, county registrar Dan Burk released stunning news: registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 1,284 voters.

“How did this happen?” Smith said as she shuffled through papers on her desk and eight volunteers in the strip-mall office manned the phones and occasionally handed out McCain-Palin signs. “This was a strong Republican county. And all of a sudden — it is Democrat.”

The Democratic takeover of Washoe County has Republicans across the state reeling because it opens the door for Sen. Barack Obama to win Nevada’s five electoral votes on Nov. 4. Smith and other top GOP officials are considering a law suit to challenge the validity of new voter registrations that has turned a 17,500-voter registration advantage for Republicans in August 2007 into a 1,300-registration advantage for Democrats.

...

This year, however, there are clear indications that McCain cannot rely on Washoe County to tip Nevada into his corner. In Washoe County, 68,250 early ballots cast have been cast through through Tuesday, and Democrats have widened their lead to 7,300 voters. Democrats cast 31,900 votes, while Republicans cast 24,560.

“This is by far the largest number of early voters that we have ever seen,” said Burk, the Washoe County registrar. “Nothing else comes close.”

Sdashiki

Oct 31, 2008, 09:21 AM

Id like to take this opportunity to formally apologize for the State of Florida more than likely @#$%^& up this election.

Again.

stevento

Nov 3, 2008, 01:24 AM

Early votes aren't counted until election day. so it must mean he's leading early voting exit polls.

EricNau

Nov 3, 2008, 01:29 AM

Early votes aren't counted until election day. so it must mean he's leading early voting exit polls.
Indeed. These polls should in no way be confused with official results.

cheeseadiddle

Nov 3, 2008, 01:35 AM

I voted early in Florida, and voted Obama.

sushi

Nov 3, 2008, 01:41 AM

Indeed. These polls should in no way be confused with official results.
True.

A lot can happen between now and Tuesday.

Also, exit polling may not be all that accurate.

Beric

Nov 3, 2008, 01:53 AM

True.

A lot can happen between now and Tuesday.

Also, exit polling may not be all that accurate.

Exit polling isn't accurate primarily because us Republicans hate it. Another reason I vote absentee.

jplan2008

Nov 3, 2008, 02:22 AM

Id like to take this opportunity to formally apologize for the State of Florida more than likely @#$%^& up this election.

Again.

Hey, speak for yourself. I posted this elsewhere, but in 2004, Republicans cast 43.5% of early votes and Democrats 40.7%. This year, through Saturday, Democrats cast 45.5% and Republicans 37.6%. And the early voting numbers are way up. Republicans always lead in absentee voting, and it took time to surpass that, but Obama is going to win Florida.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

Chundles

Nov 3, 2008, 02:36 AM

Mostly old people in Florida right?

Old people don't like anything different, they're old, McCain's old - makes sense...

és:

Nov 3, 2008, 02:46 AM

Pollster has Obama with a +2.5 lead (47.6 to 45.6) in Florida. 2 points in Missouri, just under 1.5 in NC. They have him at 7 points ahead nationally.

Come on Obama!

sushi

Nov 3, 2008, 03:05 AM

Come on Obama!
Come on McCain! :)

és:

Nov 3, 2008, 03:39 AM

Come on McCain! :)

Indeed, come on the war criminal that sings bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran. Come on the man who voted against a ban on torture (and then patted Bush on the back for vetoing it). Come on the man who was rated 'worst senator for children' by the Children's Defense Fund that voted against the children's healthcare bill (and then patted Bush on the back for vetoing it). Come on the man that got a ZERO from the League of Conservation Voters. Come on the man who wants to spend a 100 years in Iraq, ''hates the gooks till the day he dies'' (which might not be that long) and believe that 'it's not good enough to beat the enemy, you've got to humiliate them'. Come on the man that wants to give $4 billion in tax breaks to the oil companies whilst over a 100 million homes get no relief at all. Come on the man that opposes equal pay legislation. Come on the man that said that the Iraq war would be 'easy'. Vote for the man that chose to pick Palin for VP.

Vote for This man (http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=ioy90nF2anI), this man (http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=cLfsG8XKWfw), this economic genius (http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=VsB3mk1yD1Q), this baston of self control (http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=fAyK-enrF1g), this man (http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=G6bc82h4vWA),

Come on John ****ing McCain.

sushi

Nov 3, 2008, 03:46 AM

Indeed, come on the war criminal
<big snip>
Are we having a bad day?

és:

Nov 3, 2008, 03:52 AM

Are we having a bad day?

I'm not sure if you are, but I've just got up and I'm drinking tea - nothing could be better.

I'm just using what he's said, what others have said and his own actions against the maniac that is McCain. I'm shocked that anyone wants to vote for him.

sushi

Nov 3, 2008, 05:34 AM

I'm shocked that anyone wants to vote for him.
I'm sure others feel the same about Obama.

It's all a matter of perspective. :)

Anuba

Nov 3, 2008, 06:55 AM

és:

Nov 3, 2008, 06:56 AM

I'm sure others feel the same about Obama.

It's all a matter of perspective. :)

Well, if you like war criminals with all those attributes that I described, then sure.

SLC Flyfishing

Nov 3, 2008, 09:25 AM

Well, if you like war criminals with all those attributes that I described, then sure.

Since when was McCain a war criminal, I haven't read or heard that. Source please?

SLC

Lyle

Nov 3, 2008, 09:45 AM

I saw a news clip yesterday where old people complained about the long lines. The lines this year are unbelievable, apparently. People of age 70 and up can't stand in line for 3-4 hours straight, young people can.Sounds like those elderly voters are being disenfranchised. Given how strongly the Democrats feel about everyone having the opportunity to vote, did the news clip that you saw address what they (Democrats) are doing to ensure that these people get the chance to vote?

Anuba

Nov 3, 2008, 10:02 AM

freeny

Nov 3, 2008, 10:10 AM

Roderick Usher

Nov 3, 2008, 10:18 AM

és:

Nov 3, 2008, 10:32 AM

Since when was McCain a war criminal, I haven't read or heard that. Source please?

SLC

"I am a war criminal. I bombed innocent women and children" - John McCain, 60 minutes, 1997.

The above isn't an admission of guilt, of course. He said that he said those things in a confession (which brings it's own questions...) under torture. But he did do those things, so he's right.

Peace

Nov 3, 2008, 11:07 AM

Since when was McCain a war criminal, I haven't read or heard that. Source please?

SLC

Here's an old document from Vietnam. And to put this in perspective knowing you will call BS on it I had friends that flew in Navy gunships around Vietnam. One of them. A good friend used to tell me how they would eat acid in the morning and hop in their ship. Everybody. Including the commander pilot.

After taking off they would "make their rounds". While doing it ( on LSD ) they would "practice" with the 30 and 50 caliber guns.

What they would do is fly over rice patties and when they saw a gook they would shoot them. It didn't matter if they were the South Vietnamese or the Viet Cong. And in some instances chinese.
They would just shoot them. I had a buddy that came back from Nam and he had a necklace around his neck with a small pouch he used to stash his pot and hash in. It was made out of a Vietnamese woman's breast that was cut off.

Now with that in mind. Read this.

http://www.vietnamveteransagainstjohnmccain.com/McCAIN%20RADIO%20BROADCAST%20from%20Ha%20Noi%20060269.pdf

As a subscript to this I'm quit sure you've read about how soldiers in Iraq have raped ,tortured and killed innocent civilians.

If you don't believe any of this you are in a state of denial because that's what happens all the time.
The U.S. Military is one of the biggest Terrorist organizations in the world.

és:

Nov 3, 2008, 11:12 AM

"I hate the Gooks and I'll hate them 'till the day I die''.

emw

Nov 3, 2008, 11:16 AM

Sounds like those elderly voters are being disenfranchised. Given how strongly the Democrats feel about everyone having the opportunity to vote, did the news clip that you saw address what they (Democrats) are doing to ensure that these people get the chance to vote?

Aside from staying open later, providing chairs, etc., when I early voted many elderly and/or disabled voters were allowed to bypass the long lines and jump to the front. I was okay with that, since I believe they have the same right to vote as I do and shouldn't be discouraged from voting simply because they're unable to stand for lengthy periods of time.

In the end, though, Democrats don't run the polling places. Ensuring the opportunity to vote by getting people registered and to the polls is one thing. After that, people need to decide if they're willing to stand in line to make their vote count.

I waited 90 minutes, which is about 89 minutes longer than I'd ever waited before. 90 minutes, or 5 hours, or whatever, once every 4 years seems like a reasonable trade-off to exercise my right to vote.

Thomas Veil

Nov 3, 2008, 11:26 AM

Looking at Anuba's post about Nevada (http://forums.macrumors.com/showpost.php?p=6532679&postcount=14) makes me realize how unpredictable this election really is.

Are the early voters, heavily Democratic, just the ones who are most anxious for change? Are there just as many people happy with the status quo, who are also happy to vote on the 4th? Or are they so discouraged they'll be staying home? Or do they even exist in sizable numbers at all?

And of course there are plenty of other questions regarding the so-called Bradley effect, cell phone voters and the like.

I'd hate to be an oddsmaker in Vegas, because this election is damn near impossible to handicap.

Anuba

Nov 3, 2008, 12:04 PM

I'd hate to be an oddsmaker in Vegas, because this election is damn near impossible to handicap.
Yeah... I'm torn between "man, being up by double digits leaves such an ample margin we shouldn't have to worry at all" and "then again, there was that New Hampshire primary where he was ahead of Hillary by 9% but ended up losing..."

It's a tossup... :eek:

And the repercussions if McCain actually wins... ouch. The entire planet except half of America will be depressed, and I'm guessing there will be riots in some cities in the US.

abijnk

Nov 3, 2008, 12:11 PM

Yeah... I'm torn between "man, being up by double digits leaves such an ample margin we shouldn't have to worry at all" and "then again, there was that New Hampshire primary where he was ahead of Hillary by 9% but ended up losing..."

It's a tossup... :eek:

And the repercussions if McCain actually wins... ouch. The entire planet except half of America will be depressed, and I'm guessing there will be riots in some cities in the US.

Obama let up in New Hampshire when he saw the polling so far out front, that was a huge mistake because Hillary hit it hard. He hasn't made that mistake twice, he is campaigning as hard as ever right now, no matter how good the polls look.

Cleverboy

Nov 3, 2008, 12:26 PM

Obama let up in New Hampshire when he saw the polling so far out front, that was a huge mistake because Hillary hit it hard. He hasn't made that mistake twice, he is campaigning as hard as ever right now, no matter how good the polls look. Yeah... talk about a phoenix story. It's really bizarre that the general election has become such a replay of the primaries. The ending however, shows Obama as a much better candidate than he was early on. Toughened, agile and more responsive.

~ CB

solvs

Nov 4, 2008, 08:00 AM

I'm sure others feel the same about Obama.

It's all a matter of perspective. :)

At this point, it really isn't.

Cleverboy

Nov 4, 2008, 08:18 AM

I'm just using what he's said, what others have said and his own actions against the maniac that is McCain. I'm shocked that anyone wants to vote for him.I'm sure others feel the same about Obama.
It's all a matter of perspective. :)At this point, it really isn't.
It will always be a matter of perspective. Whether its positive or negative, when a message resonates, we just fill in the gaps with our own feelings and prejudices. Some people like McCain's message, some people like Obama's.

It may be troubling that most people simply vote with their "gut", but none of us can predict the future of either potential administration. No one has a divining rod for "the righteous path". Truth can be stranger than fiction. We just make the best choice we can, and have faith that our decision will benefit the country and ourselves. No looking back. No second chances. No magic bullets. No false promises. Just the irresistible march of history and the capricious winds of fate.

~ CB