Bush sees 2.6M new jobs

[zimv20]

link (http://money.cnn.com/2004/02/09/news/economy/bush_jobs.reut/index.htm?cnn=yes)


The economy should shed its jobless label this year with the creation of about 2.6 million new positions, the White House forecast Monday.

[...]

In the annual Economic Report of the President, the White House said the number of workers on U.S. non-farm payrolls was likely to rise to an average to 132.7 million this year from a 2003 average it thought would come in at 130.1 million.


Last year, the Bush administration was looking for the creation of about 1.7 million jobs. But the economy actually lost 53,000 jobs, bringing the total number of jobs lost since Bush took office to 2.2 million.


i wonder, given how far the estimates were off for 2003, what, if anything, was changed in how they forecast.

[3rdpath]

Originally posted by zimv20
i wonder, given how far the estimates were off for 2003, what, if anything, was changed in how they forecast.

nothing, except the election is closer and positive numbers, regardless of their slim possibility, sound good.

[pseudobrit]

Originally posted by zimv20
i wonder, given how far the estimates were off for 2003, what, if anything, was changed in how they forecast.

Well, if you apply the formula where Bush predicted 1.7M jobs and came up with 53,000 lost, we can predict a net loss of 81,058.8 jobs.

[Dont Hurt Me]

I wonder if one of those is a manufactoring job? you know those jobs that are being shipped to every country but the USA? the jobs The President is talking about are those jobs that illegal mexicans are doing, Lawn care,Concrete layers, House keepers & fast food like Mcdonalds. Thanks Republican Party. we will become a service industry country. China will be the Manufactoring base of the world , Look at where your next imac comes from. It wont say made in the USA.

[bennetsaysargh]

sure im only 14, but i want a job. i need to start saving money for later on in life, and i can't find a single job.
"I will not be satisfied until every American who wants a job can find one."
find me a job, and i'll be happy. i may not be able to vote, but shouldn't you worry about me? no, of course not. there is no way people my age can be taken seriously because everyone stereotypes by age now. i have to wait until i am 16 to get a job besides mcdonalds. why? i should be able to find a job.

and that's the end of my little rant.

[bousozoku]

Will any of those jobs pay more than minimum wage?

[zimv20]

when the GOP's in power, we should feel lucky that there _is_ a minimum wage

[Frohickey]

Originally posted by bennetsaysargh
find me a job, and i'll be happy. i may not be able to vote, but shouldn't you worry about me? no, of course not. there is no way people my age can be taken seriously because everyone stereotypes by age now. i have to wait until i am 16 to get a job besides mcdonalds. why? i should be able to find a job.


because the progressives have successfully lobbied Congress passing a law saying that certain people under a certain age should not be working... in that time, it was about children working at the factories under deplorable conditions... but you are seeing the effects of 'Unintended Consequences' of everything that government does.

you could work for in your family business, maybe. Or there is always washing cars for your neighbors, paper route for a small local newspaper, walking dogs, and mowing lawns. sure, it could be a bit intimidating going to your neighbor and asking for a job, but think of it as character development.

[3rdpath]

Originally posted by Frohickey
[B... but you are seeing the effects of 'Unintended Consequences' of everything that government does.
[/B]

these are EXACTLY the intended consequences of government job regulations. 14 yr olds are not supposed to be eligible for the adult job market...history has shown that children are another form of slave labor...or maybe indentured servants at best.

i suggest you read "the disappearance of childhood".

but there will always be plenty of community jobs for kids that want work...such as the lawn mowing you mentioned..or pool cleaning( a neighbor of mine started a pool cleaning biz before he could drive and eventually turned it into a multi-million dollar pool supply business), babysitting and a slew of other odd jobs. and most pay cash which means=no taxes.

[wwworry]

can one still deliver papars as a 12 yr. old?

[wwworry]

Originally posted by Frohickey
because the progressives have successfully lobbied Congress passing a law saying that certain people under a certain age should not be working... in that time, it was about children working at the factories under deplorable conditions... but you are seeing the effects of 'Unintended Consequences' of everything that government does.

yes, now these same American companies have children overseas working in deplorable conditions (etch-a-sketch factory in China).

But I guess since it happened and people with money thought they would make more money then THE MARKET HAS SPOKEN. It's ok. Only people who run businesses can determine THE HALLOWED WORD OF THE MARKET. DO not question it. :confused:

[mactastic]

Oh and why did progressives pass that law? Hmm, I think it was because people who thought the market was always right saw a market in child labor to exploit, and with no one to stop them turned it in to an industry.

"Smithers had thwarted my earlier attempt to take candy from a baby, but with him out of the picture I was free to wallow in my own crapulence."


_______ - Monty Burns ;)

[bennetsaysargh]

in my area, no one will trust a 14 year old because they think that we're all rebels and don't listen to anyone. also, in MYS, you can get a job at 14 if you have working papers, which i have had for almost a year now. there are also laws which make me only able to work 40 hours a week, and i can't work in a factory setting until either 16 or 18, meaning not even BJ's. there are a lot of immature 14 year olds in my area, but i am not one of them, at least i think i am not. i think that if kids my age want to work in a place other than mcdonalds, they should be able to. i am not asking to abolish the child labor laws, i am asking to make new ones to make it easy for everyone.

by the way, i am going to write a letter to a congressman, and i also want to point out, equal opportunity employer is not equal for younger people.

[zimv20]

Originally posted by bennetsaysargh
i can't work in a factory setting until either 16 or 18, meaning not even BJ's.

what kind of factories you got over there?!?

[bennetsaysargh]

there are no factories, but BJ's is considered a factory environment, meaning you have to be 16 to work there.

[Frohickey]

Originally posted by wwworry
yes, now these same American companies have children overseas working in deplorable conditions (etch-a-sketch factory in China).

But I guess since it happened and people with money thought they would make more money then THE MARKET HAS SPOKEN. It's ok. Only people who run businesses can determine THE HALLOWED WORD OF THE MARKET. DO not question it. :confused:

Maybe the United States of America should pick a fight with the ChiComs and invade, that way we can liberate the chinese from dictators (and save the children from working at etch-a-sketch factories). :p

Wonder if there are exemptions from the Child Labor laws. The problem that comes up with laws like this, with unintended consequences is that it makes law-abiding good-intentioned people question the correctness of the law. Sometimes, they would even disobey the law, and that lessens respect for the law, which is a very bad thing.

So, the Child Labor law does help out in that children are not exploited, but the unintended consequence is that people like bennetsaysargh, who are under 14, and would like to work a little to get some spending cash are turned away from jobs even though they want to work.

Government is not reason and it is not eloquence. It is force! Like fire it is a dangerous servant and a fearful master. Never for a moment should it be left to irresponsible action. -George Washington

[wwworry]

Originally posted by Frohickey
So, the Child Labor law does help out in that children are not exploited, but the unintended consequence is that people like bennetsaysargh, who are under 14, and would like to work a little to get some spending cash are turned away from jobs even though they want to work.

I'm sorry but bennetsaysargh does not know what it's like to work in a factory and if she/he did he/she would probably be out of there in a second. Not to mention that there are hardly any factories that accept part-time employees. Maybe he/she could work the night shift. That would help the grades. Plus there will be plenty of time to work and worry about money later on in life. I would suggest reading a book instead. Cheap!

In the etch-a-sketch factory they work 12 hour days 7 days a week and wages even below the Chineese minimum of $0.55 /hr. THey are fead meat once a month. Everyone in Ohio (the company is called Ohio Art) got laid off their $9.50/hr. job. But far be it from me to question the market - whatever the owners of capital want is ok with me. This lucky duck is glad to have a penny.

[here we are, bennetsaysargh, arguing your fate and debating whether you should be able to get a factory job when you just wanted to work at BJ's which you probably consider a retail job. Sorry to use your job search as ammunition in our on-going discussion. I wish you luck. Selling cold things on hot days is always a good idea and the reverse is good too. But don't get locked into long hours right away. Remember, 5 days-a-week, 50 weeks a year for 55 years awaits you. Ug. It's not so bad once you get used to it. Buy real-estate early in upward city neighborhoods is my advice. I still kick myself for not buying that building for $49,000 and 4 years later I saw it listed for $198,000. Once you get your first building it is a lot easier to get your second. Money makes money. The more money you have the easier it is to make more of it.]

[zimv20]

there's always a market for 14 year olds to mow lawns, shovel snow, help people clean out garages, do other lawn maintenance, help paint houses, odd jobs, etc. plus there's the paper route.

i agree w/ wwworry, don't be in such a hurry to slave away at a real job. do the above kind of stuff, collect your (tax free) cash, and enjoy the variety and downtime.

[Neserk]

Originally posted by pseudobrit
Well, if you apply the formula where Bush predicted 1.7M jobs and came up with 53,000 lost, we can predict a net loss of 81,058.8 jobs.

That is the beauty of statistics. If the person listening to them doesn't know how they work you can easily deceive them. We can only compare employment numbers from when he started to now.

[thegeek187]

argh,

get real, there are plenty of jobs but you dont want to look around. So what? take the mcdonalds. You have to start somewhere.

And what you are saying that bush said you are twisting his words. he means ADULTS (18+) who are NOT dependents. YOU are a dependent you DONT NEED a job. There are plenty of jobs around here ryan as ive told you but you dont want to look around.


thats why i know plenty of kids your age who have jobs! because they looked

[numediaman]

Bush as Carnac:

[Desertrat]

Don't Hurt Me, manufacturing jobs started "moving overseas" way, way back. The first example comes from back in the 1970s, when I learned that the hotrodders' "mag wheels" were coming from India. Heck, Swedish steel cost less in Dearborn than did steel from Pittsburgh, and that was in 1962!

As the rest of the world started building industrial infrastructure, our regulations and pay scales made us non-competitive as to pricing. U.S. corporate profitability as return on investment has been in steady decline for over twenty years.

Sure, we could do the tariff thing, but that would merely jack up prices beyond the reach of way too many folks. It's bad enough already, when you think of housing and cars. There's a reason so many people shop at Wally World.

Still, the biggest ripoff going, pricewise, has gotta be Nike shoes. What do they cost, per pair, to manufacture? A couple of bucks?

As far as child labor laws, it seems to me that as usual, the rigidity is the problem. There should be some fairly simple way for parental approval to be factored in, and monitored exceptions made. With all the laws on the books, now, to protect adults, exploitation of a knowledgeable youngun shouldn't be a great problem...

'Rat

[zimv20]

Originally posted by Desertrat

As far as child labor laws, it seems to me that as usual, the rigidity is the problem. There should be some fairly simple way for parental approval to be factored in, and monitored exceptions made.

there are exceptions. kids are allowed to work in family businesses, including farms. additionally, the system looks the other way wrt paper routes, odd jobs, mowing lawns, shoveling snow, etc.

i'm afraid i don't see what's 'missing'

[wwworry]

It's funny. "Childhood", or the concept of it, really arose with the middle class. Before that children were seen a little adults, not developementally different other than size.

[Desertrat]

zim, if more people had their own businesses, maybeso kids like bennett wouldn't have to say, "Argh."

There're a lot of "Bring me..." jobs that aren't really worth $5.15 an hour. Homebuilders need somebody to go get a board, or bring some nails; little stuff of that sort. In my wife's plant, the regular workers could use a helper or to to chase parts for the assembly. Part time and/or light duty stuff that early teenagers could do and learn about the formal aspects of jobs and employment.

I dunno. I guess growing up around farming and ranching gave me a different view about working at a young age. I was working cattle from horseback at age eight, and by age ten was helping haul hay and fix fence. At age twelve I figured out that picking cotton for $0.02 a pound just really sucked. Driving a tractor to cut and rake hay was fun, though; it sure beat looking at the south end of a northbound plowhorse. :) All that gave me plenty of incentive to become an engineer.

'Rat

[SPG]

Back to the jobs number...

If bush thinks that this economy or even this country can create 2,600,000 jobs this year he is sadly mistaken. To quote Professor DeLong:
Informed sources defend the forecast 320,000 a month payroll job gains as reasonable: "slightly stronger (in percentage terms) than the Bush-Clinton recovery and much lower than the Reagan recovery." I'm not convinced. A 4% forecast annual rate of growth of real GDP, 3% growth in employment, 0.5% (say) growth in hours, and 0.5% rate of growth of productivity? In an economy where labor productivity growth has averaged 3.4% for the past eight years. This forecast is not credible.

http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/movable_type/2004_archives/000253.html

We haven't seen any trends in this direction and yet Bush claims that we will suddenly see massive gains in jobs. WTF?

[wwworry]

Maybe the job isn't worth $5.15/hr but the person who does that job is worth a lot more than that.

[zimv20]

Originally posted by Desertrat
At age twelve I figured out that picking cotton for $0.02 a pound just really sucked. Driving a tractor to cut and rake hay was fun, though; it sure beat looking at the south end of a northbound plowhorse. :) All that gave me plenty of incentive to become an engineer.


you bring up a good point. i started working at 11, cleaning offices, for $3/hour. that, along w/ a slew of summer jobs, helped me put myself through college.

such lessons are invaluable to teenagers. once 16, teens can legally get jobs. so we're really only talking about, say, 10 y.o. to 16 y.o. as i've mentioned, i feel that the paper routes and snow shoveling jobs fulfill those roles.

as a parent (not for real, i'm hypothesizing), i'd feel comfortable having my 12 y.o. in the neighborhood mowing lawns. i would not feel comfortable having him/her on a construction site.

[Desertrat]

Count me in as one who doesn't agree with the "official" view of the rate of growth in the number of jobs. What bothers me more, though, regardless of the rate, is that it seems that the majority of new jobs don't pay as well as those lost to foreign competition--which is an ongoing trend that is regularly mentioned in the various economic reports.

I read that business/corporate borrowing is very low, which means they're not expanding operations/production/sales, so who's doing all this hiring? New restaurants?

As a result of the weakness in the U.S. dollar, the Japanese are coppering their bets to improve sales. Toyota, Honda and Nissan are going to build assembly plants in the U.S., and plan to hire--in total--some 70,000 people. (One Toyota plant will be in San Antonio.) These efforts will add more jobs in transportation and in parts manufacturing. Quien sabe?

Yeah, zim, I just used "construction site" as an example of a deal where a kid could sorta sit and wait and not do much until called upon for "go-fer" duties. Regardless, there's a lot of "learn by watching" that happened to me that I never realized until years later, from just following my grandfather around in his farm/ranch chores.

Thinking in terms of safety, though, could it be that today's concerns are more with safety from "bad people"? Lord knows, my life in those early years was pretty full of physical hazard, whether rattlesnake, mesquite thorns or falling off a full-speed horse in rough country. :)

Learning by example: I watched a guy building fence. He stretched the wire too tight, before doing his stapling. The wire broke. By the time he got himself untangled, he looked like he'd been culling bobcats. I've since made sure that didn't happen to me.

'rat

[slightly]

...and I'm working 3 of them.

[Dont Hurt Me]

Ross Perot said years ago that after Nafta was signed we will hear a large sucking sound as all those factories move overseas. He was right. without a manufactoring base we are in for trouble. Thank you Republicans/Democrats. this is happening and the only ones who profit are the fat cat executives in charge of those factories. As John Edwards has said we have two America's.

[pseudobrit]

Originally posted by Dont Hurt Me
Ross Perot said years ago that after Nafta was signed we will hear a large sucking sound as all those factories move overseas. He was right.

NAFTA would have moved the factories to Mexico and Canada, though. We're getting shelled by Asia, mostly.

[Dont Hurt Me]

Our govt is giving every reason for these companies to get the heck out of the U.S. I dont understand why they dont give the companies any incentive to stay in the U.S. this should be the biggest issue in the next election. instead we are getting what these politicians did during the vietnam war 30 years ago. I could care a less about that. More crap from both parties.

[Neserk]

Originally posted by Dont Hurt Me
Our govt is giving every reason for these companies to get the heck out of the U.S. I dont understand why they dont give the companies any incentive to stay in the U.S. this should be the biggest issue in the next election. instead we are getting what these politicians did during the vietnam war 30 years ago. I could care a less about that. More crap from both parties.

The problem is greed. The companies who have said "Buy American" aren't even bothering to stick around. What hypocrites. You can no longer buy a car that was completely made in America.

signed
A Honda Owner

[Desertrat]

DHM, corporations were moving production out of the U.S. long before NAFTA. Recall my mag wheel example. Also, look up "maquiladora", for one thing; those factories in Mexico came into actrion some 30 years back.

Perot was wrong insofar as NAFTA's effect on jobs; we've sold more to Canada and Mexico since NAFTA than before. NAFTA did not enable anything at all that was new as to the location of corporate activities.

Neserk, your comment, "The problem is greed." just isn't factual. Corporations either are profitable or they go broke. When a company can't make a profit from operations in the U.S., what is the alternative but to go elsewhere?

"The companies who have said "Buy American" aren't even bothering to stick around. What hypocrites." If they stick around and go broke, what's the gain? They tried "Buy American" and folks went to WalMart instead--lower prices.

"You can no longer buy a car that was completely made in America." So what? We sell parts to other countries' automakers. Besides, if the quality is okay and the price is right, what difference does it make where it's made?

At one time we had a tariff on shoes. One analysis concluded that it cost the shoe-buying public some $30,000 per year to protect an $18,000 job in the shoe manufacturing business in New England. This is good?

The world is changing, and I'll bring up the old example of the buggy whip manufacturers. When the auto came along, the buggy whip jobs went away. So did wagon making. So? Folks either learned a new trade or suffered. Seems to me that in today's world, folks don't want to learn some new trade, yet at the same time will whine about suffering...

TANSTAAFL still holds true.

'Rat

[2jaded2care]

Bush had better be praying that his job forecast is even close. Barring another terrorist attack, this is what will be the deciding factor in the election for many people.

Regarding the comment about we should be lucky there is a minimum wage with Reps in charge -- that is why Bush is trying to get the guest-worker program flying, comprender?

I'll admit I don't understand the global economy, but it sure seems like US workers are getting the short end of the stick. Until the employment picture improves, the recovery will not take off.

And I, for one, would not hire a 14 year old to do physical labor on my property. Too much liability. Also, I've been told (and most people don't realize) that their homeowner's won't cover an injury to an illegal immigrant, if you didn't ask for documentation... and the injured party can - and should - sue you.

[Frohickey]

Originally posted by wwworry
Maybe the job isn't worth $5.15/hr but the person who does that job is worth a lot more than that.

Would you personally cough up $5.15/hour for every person that came up to you that is worth a lot more that $5.15/hour? Its easy to say someone should get more if you are not the one paying for it.

[wwworry]

I hane hired a lot of people for a lot of different kinds of work and I have always paid above minimum wage. Sorry.

[numediaman]

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/02/18/elec04.prez.bush.jobs.ap/index.html
White House downplays job predictions
Wednesday, February 18, 2004 Posted: 2:01 PM EST (1901 GMT)

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The White House backed away Wednesday from its own prediction that the economy will add 2.6 million new jobs before the end of this year, saying the forecast was the work of number-crunchers and that President Bush was not a statistician.

not a statistician?

[zimv20]

Originally posted by numediaman
the forecast was the work of number-crunchers and that President Bush was not a statistician.


god ****ing DAMNIT do i hate this lying ****. they take us for idiots.

talk about fuzzy math...

[bennetsaysargh]

now the white house is down-playing it.
He quoted Bush as saying, "I'm not a statistician. I'm not a predictor."
i would have never guessed :rolleyes:

Originally posted by zimv20
as a parent (not for real, i'm hypothesizing), i'd feel comfortable having my 12 y.o. in the neighborhood mowing lawns. i would not feel comfortable having him/her on a construction site.

i also never mentioned a construction site. a job in someplace besides McDonalds is all i was talking about.

[zimv20]

Originally posted by bennetsaysargh
now the white house is down-playing it.

i would have never guessed :rolleyes:



i also never mentioned a construction site. a job in someplace besides McDonalds is all i was talking about.

...that isn't shoveling snow and mowing lawns?

i'll try this:

there used to be no laws regulating child labor. there was widespread abuse. clearly, this tactic doesn't work. scaling back these laws will only increase that risk. is it worth it, so a 14 y.o. can work in a shoestore (sans parental oversight)? make your case.

[bennetsaysargh]

i think with parental approval, which i think was a requirement on my working papers, parental or guardian consent was required, thus meaning they give you permission to work. there are also laws that you can't work more than 40 hours in a week.

[Frohickey]

Originally posted by zimv20
...that isn't shoveling snow and mowing lawns?

i'll try this:

there used to be no laws regulating child labor. there was widespread abuse. clearly, this tactic doesn't work. scaling back these laws will only increase that risk. is it worth it, so a 14 y.o. can work in a shoestore (sans parental oversight)? make your case.

Okay, I'll bite.

So, the law is what it is because there was abuse of child labor. Not to mention that some parents could make their children work and bring home the bacon instead of the other way around. Clearly, this type of behavior is bad, and the victim here is the child.

But in formulating the child labor laws, government in essence says that a child's labor is the government's property, not up to the child's discretion to buy or sell until they come of age as an adult. Isn't this a limitation on the rights of children? Isn't this a right that is delayed? I specifically remember a famous person saying "A right delayed is a right denied."

[zimv20]

Originally posted by Frohickey
Isn't this a limitation on the rights of children? Isn't this a right that is delayed?

yes. other examples would be minimum ages for driving* and alcohol consumption.

*granted, this law protects other motorists as much as it protects the kids

the larger question becomes, "does the state have the right to protect people from themselves?" my response is, "sometimes." that grey area is rife w/ disagreement.

as far as the child labor laws are concerned, kids will find work if they really want to. because it would be under the radar, it is free from gov't regulation. which group does it make more sense for the gov't to protect?

in other news, shouldn't these kids be concerned more w/ education than earning a living?

[Frohickey]

Sometimes, doing real work can be an education. It can also build character, self-respect, and a foundation for a good future.

Chores for allowances is a start, for when kids are young and need more direct supervision. There needs to be a progression of that. Used to be that children learned the trade of their parents, but that has gone by the wayside.

The state should only be concerned with protecting citizens from others.

[pseudobrit]

Originally posted by Frohickey
The state should only be concerned with protecting citizens from others.

And a 14 year old kid going to high school and working 50 hours a week is being exploited, whether he does it voluntarily or not.

bennetsaysargh,

You are in high school. You should be working no more than 20 hours a week during the school year, and no more than 40 over the summer.

You'll be 18 in fours years, and then you'll have about 50 more years to learn all about working 60 hours a week, third shift, dangerous jobs, asshole bosses, incompetent management, and sociopathic backstabbing co-workers.

Don't be in a rush to get there. Enjoy your childhood.

[pseudobrit]

Originally posted by Frohickey
Isn't this a limitation on the rights of children? Isn't this a right that is delayed? I specifically remember a famous person saying "A right delayed is a right denied."

Should four year-olds have the right to vote?