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macrumors 68020
Original poster
Dec 29, 2003
2,448
1
West Coast
Continuing the struggles in the auto industry, GM lost nearly $800million in market cap this morning as it was downgraded to sell from hold, with a target price of zero.

Analysts believe government intervention is inevitable and shareholder return will be nothing.

LINK


Deutsche Bank sees GM shares as likely worthless
Automotive giant may have trouble funding past December, broker warns

By Simon Kennedy, MarketWatch

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Shares of General Motors Corp. got downgraded to sell from hold and were labeled Monday as likely to be worthless by Deutsche Bank, which said the car maker may not be able to fund its U.S. business past December without government intervention.

GM's shares, part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, dropped 17% to $3.62 in early action, continuing their recent retreat.

Deutsche Bank analyst Rod Lache said in a note to clients that he believes the government will be compelled to intervene to shore up Detroit-based GM through a capital infusion or loan.

Deutsche Bank also maintained its rating on Ford Motor Co. at hold.

If GM manages to avoid bankruptcy, equity shareholders are unlikely to get anything back, Lache said in slashing his target price for the shares to nil from $4.

"Without government assistance, we believe that GM's collapse would be inevitable, and that it would precipitate systemic risk that would be difficult to overcome for automakers, suppliers, retailers, and sectors of the U.S. economy," the note said.

"As part of GM's restructuring, we are also convinced that a large number of stakeholders who are senior to GM's equity will have to settle for pennies on the dollar," it added.

A report by the Center for Automotive Research last week estimated that 3 million jobs could be lost in the first year if all three major Detroit manufacturers were to halt U.S. production.

In addition, the economy could lose $156 billion over three years through lost wages as well as lower receipts from social security and income taxes, according to Sean McAlinden, the center's chief economist.

"Even if GM succeeds in averting a bankruptcy, we believe that the company's future path is likely to be bankruptcy-like," said Lache.

He estimated the U.S. may have to provide GM with at least $10 billion in loans to keep it afloat through 2010 and as much as $25 billion to fund the company's cash burn and restructuring.

As for Ford, Deutsche Bank said the company still has the potential to restructure without falling into bankruptcy, again possibly on the receiving end of government assistance.
If Ford can avoid impairments over the next year or two, it may be able to boost its market share from the inevitable shrinking of GM and also benefit from more competitive labor costs.

Simon Kennedy is the City correspondent for MarketWatch in London.
 

bassproguy07

macrumors 6502a
Aug 13, 2008
704
0
Katy, TX
I really love all things Chevy, and Pontiac....Theyre muscle cars are among the greatest of all time. We are finally seeing them return to the MUSCLE era and now they might go under?? I will seriously cry if this becomes the downfall of american muscle, because we know damn well ford cant make a decent muscle car and hasnt since the 80s. and dodges version of re creating the charger was a definate fail on the looks factor. I must say the challenger is an amazing piece of machinery
 

bradl

macrumors 603
Jun 16, 2008
5,923
17,399
I really love all things Chevy, and Pontiac....Theyre muscle cars are among the greatest of all time. We are finally seeing them return to the MUSCLE era and now they might go under?? I will seriously cry if this becomes the downfall of american muscle, because we know damn well ford cant make a decent mustang and hasnt since the 80s.

It already is the downfall of it. In fact, while they listened to the demand of American buyers and built bigger cars/trucks, they should have easily seen the writing on the wall for which direction to head, in terms of innovation. Case in point: compare gas prices for a given day between April 1998 and April 2008, then from April '08 to now for a given city. Do the Big 3 (GM, Ford, Chrysler) honestly think that any person is going to want to buy a bigger car that consumes more fuel with gas prices on the rise each one of those years (granted, it's on a downward turn now, but in April of this year, it was at least $4.65/gallon in CA), and those oil companies taking in outlandish profits? It's almost as if they were getting fleeced secretly while the consumer was getting fleeced publicly. If they had started their innovation back in 2002 like Toyota and others had, they honestly would be in a better situation than now (but then again, anything outside of liquidation is better than what they're in now).

BL.
 

Kamera RAWr

macrumors 65816
May 15, 2007
1,022
0
Sitting on a rig somewhere
Well, I suppose thats what the big 3 get for making crap cars for so long. Yes, they've made a few nice cars (of course thats just my opinion), but mostly garbage. The cars have been pretty bad as fuel efficiency is concerned and cheaply made. I haven't seen the interior of the new Corvettes and while I like Corvettes, I remember looking at the last generation some years back with my dad and I recall it being very cheap looking and plastic like. Same goes with last generation Firebirds and Camaros. While I do personally like them on the exterior, the interior is utter trash. They really were made to be disposable.

If I look at just my work place and what they drive... a majority of people don't drive American made vehicles. The ones that do are mostly Ford, Chevy or Dodge trucks. In fact, I'd say the majority of trucks are American, but cars dominate and most are Asian. Awhile back I asked some people about this for the hell of it. Many people there just recognize American cars are the garbage they are.

I'd like to hope that the American automotive industry won't go completely under, but that may be inevitable. Its very important for us to keep a good manufacturing base. We really do need to keep more of those jobs here and the auto industry is a big one. What will happen if we're no longer able to manufacture our own things? We're already far too dependent on China and others.
 

Music_Producer

macrumors 68000
Sep 25, 2004
1,633
18
They could have been #1 had they kept their electric car in production (from 10 or so years ago) Instead they scrapped those and destroyed them.. idiots.
 

Kwill

macrumors 68000
Mar 10, 2003
1,595
1
I wonder how much stock I can purchase at nil dollars. Odds are stock is bound to multiply tenfold over the next few years.
 

theBB

macrumors 68020
Jan 3, 2006
2,453
3
I'd like to hope that the American automotive industry won't go completely under, but that may be inevitable. Its very important for us to keep a good manufacturing base. We really do need to keep more of those jobs here and the auto industry is a big one. What will happen if we're no longer able to manufacture our own things? We're already far too dependent on China and others.
I would not worry about it too much. Even if they declare bankruptcy, they will still be designing and manufacturing cars and trucks. They may manufacture fewer and reduce the number of brands, but considering they cannot sell all of the ones they currently do, that is not so bad. Bankruptcy will allow them to offload the pension and health care costs to taxpayers and wipe some of their commercial debt. Any yapping about government help is the last ditch efforts of shareholders from losing money, rather than trying to help the workers. A lot of airlines declared bankruptcy, but we still have more than enough planes flying. I am glad the government did not interfere then and I hope it will interfere now.

Besides, this is a large auto market, there will be tons of car factories in the US, even if they have Japanese or Korean brand names on them.
 

mkrishnan

Moderator emeritus
Jan 9, 2004
29,776
15
Grand Rapids, MI, USA
I wonder how much stock I can purchase at nil dollars. Odds are stock is bound to multiply tenfold over the next few years.

10x0=0. ;)

(Seriously, I do wonder at the likelihood that the end result will truly be that GM's common shares become completely valueless based on the terms of whatever form of bailout they receive, either private or public).
 

valdore

macrumors 65816
Jan 9, 2007
1,262
0
Kansas City, Missouri. USA
Well, I suppose thats what the big 3 get for making crap cars for so long. Yes, they've made a few nice cars (of course thats just my opinion), but mostly garbage. The cars have been pretty bad as fuel efficiency is concerned and cheaply made. I haven't seen the interior of the new Corvettes and while I like Corvettes, I remember looking at the last generation some years back with my dad and I recall it being very cheap looking and plastic like. Same goes with last generation Firebirds and Camaros. While I do personally like them on the exterior, the interior is utter trash. They really were made to be disposable.

If I look at just my work place and what they drive... a majority of people don't drive American made vehicles. The ones that do are mostly Ford, Chevy or Dodge trucks. In fact, I'd say the majority of trucks are American, but cars dominate and most are Asian. Awhile back I asked some people about this for the hell of it. Many people there just recognize American cars are the garbage they are.

I'd like to hope that the American automotive industry won't go completely under, but that may be inevitable. Its very important for us to keep a good manufacturing base. We really do need to keep more of those jobs here and the auto industry is a big one. What will happen if we're no longer able to manufacture our own things? We're already far too dependent on China and others.

A lot of the view that the domestics are garbage comes from outdated information. Sure it was true up to a few years ago, but they've done well improving.

I bought a new '05 Ford Focus three and a half years ago - not a thing gone wrong with it, no recalls, no repairs, no warranty work needed. That never would have happened ten or twenty years ago with a Ford automobile.
 

yg17

macrumors Pentium
Aug 1, 2004
15,027
3,002
St. Louis, MO
I really love all things Chevy, and Pontiac....Theyre muscle cars are among the greatest of all time. We are finally seeing them return to the MUSCLE era and now they might go under?? I will seriously cry if this becomes the downfall of american muscle, because we know damn well ford cant make a decent muscle car and hasnt since the 80s. and dodges version of re creating the charger was a definate fail on the looks factor. I must say the challenger is an amazing piece of machinery

Muscle cars are the downfall of GM. Maybe if they stopped pissing away money into things like the new Camaro, GTO and Corvette ZR1 and made a cheap, reliable, economical car instead, they wouldn't be in this situation. But when gas was at 4 bucks a gallon, who wants a car that gets 20 miles to the gallon?
 

jbernie

macrumors 6502a
Nov 25, 2005
927
12
Denver, CO
They could have been #1 had they kept their electric car in production (from 10 or so years ago) Instead they scrapped those and destroyed them.. idiots.

more uninformed commentary from the peanut gallery.

The EV1 was electric only, limited range, no simple way to recharge, carried two people, and a retail price of $80,000 if it was ever offered for sale, when gas was costing around $1 per gallon, after spending billions of dollars in R&D they couldn't jusify it.

The Volt is powered by electricity only using the internal combustion engine as a generator to create electricity so it runs at a constant RPM and does not need to rev higher to go faster or climb hills etc, the range is no different than a regular car, put in some gas and you can keep going, you do not need to park at a recharge station to be able to continue your journey, it carries 4 people, will have a retail price around $40,000 and will be offered for sale.

The Volt is the replacement for the EV1 and has come about due to advancements in technology that did not exist when the EV1 was developed. Just look at the difference in the batteries, the battery for the volt is about half the size of the EV1.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_EV1
The Gen 1 cars got 55 to 75 miles (90 to 120 km) per charge with the Delco-manufactured lead-acid batteries, 75 to 100 miles (120-to-160 km) with the Gen 2 Panasonic lead-acid batteries, and 75 to 150 miles (120 to 240 km) per charge with Gen 2 Ovonic nickel-metal hydride batteries. Recharging took as much as eight hours for a full charge (although one could get an 80% charge in two to three hours).

The same goes for the whole opinion on here that because a vehicle is built by GM, Ford or Chrysler the quality is poor, Toyota has been far from perfect in the last 18 months, but people on here and in the media like to give them a free pass because apparently everything you do before that made you god like excuses you for a screw up now, except for the fact that the recalls affects the Tundra, Camry, Avalon, Sienna, etc, you know those mainstream bread winners for Toyota.
 

bassproguy07

macrumors 6502a
Aug 13, 2008
704
0
Katy, TX
I think they designed these retro muscle cars due to the fact that most of the baby boomer generation is approaching retirement, and most of the people who buy such cars are those who can afford them. I personally think the ZR1 was a waste, but they did it anyways. Kind of like ford developing the GT, didnt last long. I hope that we wont lose our american cars, but with the way the economy is it is looking like it. Its hard to compete in america when you have a lot of the foreign car companys like toyota and honda building plants in the US and giving the consumers quality for a low price. We will just have to wait and see, but I hope it is ford that goes under not GM. Where will all the hip hop stars get their escalades??

Edit: last I read, the ZR-1 gets some 26 to 30 mpg?? maybe more?? so I dont think its a matter of gas prices but a matter of car cost.
 

joepunk

macrumors 68030
Aug 5, 2004
2,553
13
a profane existence
more uninformed commentary from the peanut gallery.

The EV1 was electric only, limited range, no simple way to recharge, carried two people, and a retail price of $80,000 if it was ever offered for sale, when gas was costing around $1 per gallon, after spending billions of dollars in R&D they couldn't jusify it.

The Volt is the replacement for the EV1 and has come about due to advancements in technology that did not exist when the EV1 was developed. Just look at the difference in the batteries, the battery for the volt is about half the size of the EV1.

As I see it, the idea is that if GM had continued to develope their electric cars instead of scraping the entire program GM could have had a Volt like vehicle (and many more) years ago instead of as a concept/production model car that it is today.
 

Padraic

macrumors regular
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_EV1
The Gen 1 cars got 55 to 75 miles (90 to 120 km) per charge with the Delco-manufactured lead-acid batteries, 75 to 100 miles (120-to-160 km) with the Gen 2 Panasonic lead-acid batteries, and 75 to 150 miles (120 to 240 km) per charge with Gen 2 Ovonic nickel-metal hydride batteries. Recharging took as much as eight hours for a full charge (although one could get an 80% charge in two to three hours).

As I see it, the idea is that if GM had continued to develope their electric cars instead of scraping the entire program GM could have had a Volt like vehicle (and many more) years ago instead of as a concept/production model car that it is today.

That's the way I see it too... And let me ask this, how many people here work more than 55 - 75 miles from work round trip? I never have, in fact I have a 45 minute commute one way right now and don't have a 55 - 75 mile commute. If GM had kept their original electric cars and Ford had kept their 'Blue' program and both companies had worked to make those vehicles profitable, think of where we'd be now.
 

SactoGuy18

macrumors 601
Sep 11, 2006
4,343
1,508
Sacramento, CA USA
I can see GM in North America being reduced down to three divisions:

Chevrolet--family cars plus Corvette
Cadillac--luxury cars
GMC--light trucks

They should have done this about eight years ago.
 

MacNut

macrumors Core
Jan 4, 2002
22,995
9,973
CT
Buick will be chopped.
Pontiac will be folded into Chevy.
GMC will split into light duty and Commercial.
Cadillac will stay intact.

The rest will be sold off.

I could actually see GMC sold off and run as a separate company that just makes heavy duty and rebranding the light trucks under Chevy.

I don't see Chrysler surviving. Maybe selling off the Jeep brand.


Would the government allow Ford and GM to merge?
 

Evangelion

macrumors 68040
Jan 10, 2005
3,374
147
A lot of the view that the domestics are garbage comes from outdated information. Sure it was true up to a few years ago, but they've done well improving.

I bought a new '05 Ford Focus three and a half years ago - not a thing gone wrong with it, no recalls, no repairs, no warranty work needed. That never would have happened ten or twenty years ago with a Ford automobile.

Um, Ford Focus isn't really related to Ford USA. Focus was created by Ford Europe, and it was then brought over (with some modifications) to NA.
 
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