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diamond geezer
Feb 25, 2004, 02:31 PM
http://www.janes.com/regional_news/europe/news/fr/fr040129_1_n.shtml

The strait is considered to be one of the world's most dangerous waterways when there is bad weather, and the Turks are paranoid about collisions involving tankers that could cause explosions in the heavily populated areas around Istanbul. But European oil sources suspect that the slowdown imposed on Russian oil exports through the strait is part of an effort by the Turkish government to reduce such traffic over time because it will compete with the US-backed pipeline being laid from the oilfields outside Baku in Azerbaijan, through Tbilisi, Georgia, to Turkey's loading terminal at Ceyhan on the Mediterranean.

The US$2.9bn, 1,760km pipeline, known as the BTC, is intended to be the main conduit for Caspian Sea oil to western Europe, cutting Russian and Iranian influence in the energy-rich Caspian. Due for completion in 2005, the pipeline being built by a consortium led by British oil giant BP will pump up to one million barrels per day (bpd).

In late January, at least nine large oil tankers had been waiting for weeks to enter the Black Sea to lift some 370,000 tonnes of Russian oil for export, according to officials at the port of Odessa. They said authorities had been forced to cut shipment from 1.8 million tonnes to 300,000 tonnes over the previous month after the Turks imposed strict regulations on transits to avoid possible accidents in the Bosphorus. Bad weather and increased traffic are forcing delays for about 100 vessels waiting to enter the strait.

The bloodless revolution in Georgia, where work began on a section of the pipeline in May, has produced a staunchly pro-Western government following the ousting of Eduard Shevardnadze on 23 November, blocking Russian efforts to impose its will in the former Soviet republic and take control of its bankrupt economy. Georgia is of huge strategic importance to the West and Russia, because it straddles the planned oil route.



zimv20
Feb 25, 2004, 03:14 PM
very interesting. i'll need to have a look at a map to see where that pipeline will run.

i was in istanbul about 10 years ago. the bosphorus is pretty darn wide. it was "full" of ships, but they weren't at all stacked on top of each other.

i agree that it's a political ploy. i wonder how much influence the US is having on that ploy.

Desertrat
Feb 25, 2004, 05:34 PM
Yeah, even a flat map of the world helps to try and understand what's going on, and why.

Quite a few places lack stable governments, and achieving them is a strong desire in many other places than the White House.

Political unrest has screwed up oil production in Venezuela and Colombia. East to west arcross Afghanistan is a major pipeline route, and pipelining through the Balkans is the only real reason we got involved in that mess.

I imagine a lot of scrambling is going on to develop Caspian Sea oil and also other sources, given the fears that the Saudi regime might crumble...

'Rat

IJ Reilly
Feb 25, 2004, 05:43 PM
The other reason we got involved in the Balkans is that the conflict threatened to spill over into neighboring countries -- in particular, Greece.

mactastic
Feb 25, 2004, 05:52 PM
Originally posted by Desertrat
and pipelining through the Balkans is the only real reason we got involved in that mess.


Oh, that's right; but we went into Iraq for purely humanitarian reasons, no?

Desertrat
Feb 26, 2004, 12:03 PM
"Oh, that's right; but we went into Iraq for purely humanitarian reasons, no?"

The problem word is "purely". My answer, natch, is "Of course not." Saddam provided a wonderful multi-reason argument for our going in. Brutality on the one hand, and oil on the other.

Every now and then I wonder what would happen if those governments and oil companies which meddle in mideastern governments and their own oil dealings, just quit. Just let whatever happens happen. I play this "what if" stuff a lot.

What if we hadn't done anything about Kuwait in Gulf War I? What if we'd left Saddam alone? What would have happened to Saudi Arabia, between the Al Qaeda hostility and Saddam's future dreams of Kingship? What would Iran have done, insofar as its export of its religious fervor?

Or, what if we hadn't gone into Afghanistan? Or Iraq, now?

What if pipeline crews couldn't complete the projects, or oil couldn't continue to flow without sabotage?

Were oil to hit $100 a barrel, what would our own economy do? Or Europe's or Japan's?

I have speculations, but no real answers. I do know that we need the awl-bidness folks an awful lot, whether or not we like how they operate. And for way too many folks, the availability of oil and its byproducts means food on the table...

'Rat