Adobe, rumors, and why companies buy each other
There may be reasons why a buyout won't happen, but everyone complaining about this rumor seems to be attacking the messenger rather than really looking at the possibilities (no, I didn't write the piece so I don't know the sources of info).
Adobe's financials have been shakey the last few years, with a good quarter followed by a poor quarter, generally blamed on Apple (but not always, and not always accurately).
So, given that, the company doesn't need to be on death's door (bankruptcy) for the company's directors to think they can do better.
Why would Apple buy them? Probably to keep MS from buying them. Sure, it would be a stretch, but Apple could make it a stock-deal and not have to shell out as much cash. Would that fly? Not sure, since the benefit to Apple's stock holders to offset the dilution would be the Adobe revenue streams. Perhaps Adobe would be kept ala FileMakerPro, but I don't see that really strengthening the Adobe position in the market.
Why would MS buy them? For reasons similar to the Great Plains purchase, I'd think. Now that MS has a stranglehold on the desktop (reinforced by the butt-kissing the DOJ is trying to give them now), MS has to do something to fuel the revenue growth projections, lest its stock start tumbling on slower growth. Look for MS to diversify, both to cement its hold on developers/users, but to also feed the Street. An area that MS has traditionally been weak in is content creation. What better way to catapult into a dominant position in that market. Someone above mentioned that if MS wanted to do it they would have done so already; not necessarily. For an Adobe buyout to work, it would have to be somewhat friendly, else all the talent would leave. Add to that the end of the anti-trust case uncertainty and now you have a company with 36+ billion in the bank looking for ways to get a better return on it. Adobe might _not_ be an MS target -- but watch for MS to buy its way into several markets in the next year or two, IMO.
FWIW,
-porruka, EIC, MacEdition
porruka@macedition.com
http://www.macedition.com