If they were all starting one store, or one phone OS was truly dominant here, I'd expect success. But I think this is like the ipod. Apple got too far ahead of the market too fast, and by the time the competition really got going, it was too divided and too much the same to compete. I mean, I bet some of these stores, and some of the phones, are really spectacular. But same phone, same store, and then with enough market share to get apps written to make the whole thing worthwhile?
Android's got a decent shot, because google will doubtless write tons of great apps there.
I am with you on some points here, but I respectfully disagree on a few:
Apple has got a huge advantage and an edge here for the exact reason you mention. BUT. The phone market is not like the mp3 market, there (mp3) the fact that a new device got automatically branded an ipod that people weren't even aware what it was and brough on a huge shift of paradigm automatically that was associated with apple. This is NOT the case with mobile phones, that a. as a device are fully aknowledged by the public so tehy can't be associated with a single product, b. differentiation is actually a sign of status/style/statement so you can't lure them all, different brands CONTANTLY keep making new and different models and inroads in the mobile market an doing so successufflly, and c. (and ther are more points but I ll stop) demographics are different with all of the above (except android) having ALREADY a well established customer base.
What's more I don't know how apple plan to play this along but they won't be able to sell one phone to all and think the ll compete in such a diverse market. Let's face it for reasons of status, differentiation etc. etc. iphone's novelty will wear off in a year max and then you have to bring something on the table that will be different for the kid who digs apple, or the exec, or the soccer mom, or the student and if they plan to do this with one size fits all phone, one iphone they better forget about it because they ll fail, they can't be one trick ponies in this arena. I am not saying that they become the nokia of cell phones with 100's of phone models catering to every need out, but they at least should become the apple computer to the phone market, that is be as diverse as they are int the computer market in the phone market. I hope they have this in mind, otherwise they will fail.
As for google, I got a lot of buddies who are gang ho about this thing. And here you too, you say they are going to have lots of great apps, yeah, ok, wait a sec. though, its a f. phone, even a smart one, how many different or spectacular or groundbreaking apps can you have? This is kid stuff really, sure some will be helpful, but you can't have anything spectacularly useful in a phone that they guy next door doens't have, these are phones, you are not designing apps to mawn the lawn, or do the laundry, or sent the kids to school, or whatever....So I say, so what about the google apps. I have bough tons of apps for my iphone and have tons of free ones, and almost never use any beside 5-6 of them, not because they are bad, but because I only need them very occasionaly, and because it's nice to know you can do something, but that doesnt mean you ll need to.
