Kerry'n'Job Creation

[Desertrat]

Made a run up to Alpine, today, which put me into radio range. Heard a news squib that Kerry promises to add ten million jobs during his first presidential term. Anybody heard any details?

I'm curious about just how this could be done and what sectors (Heavy industry? Light manufacturing?) would be most affected.

'Rat

[zimv20]

link (http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/27/politics/campaign/27ECON.html)


[Kerry] proposed an overhaul of corporate taxes that would provide a a 5 percent reduction in the corporate tax rate for most companies.


"It is completely achievable for the United States to return to a path of creating 10 million jobs in four years," Mr. [Gene] Sperling [Mr. Clinton's top economic adviser] told reporters flying with Mr. Kerry from Washington to Detroit, noting that the Clinton administration added 11 million jobs in its first term. The corporate tax overhaul Mr. Kerry announced Friday would end provisions in the tax code that allow American companies to take tax deferments on profits earned overseas. That is expected to yield about $11 billion annually.

To encourage companies to bring back the $600 billion invested abroad, Mr. Kerry would provide a one-year haven in which those profits would be taxed at 10 percent rather than the full rate. Mr. Sperling said he thought that would bring a one-time windfall of $10 billion to $20 billion.

Mr. Sperling said just 6,000 companies, or less than 1 percent of the total, have foreign operations and would be affected by those changes. For the rest, Mr. Kerry is promising a reduction in the corporate tax rate to 33.25 percent from 35 percent, and a tax credit exempting them from payroll taxes on any new jobs created over two years.


[Kerry] insisted in his Detroit speech, "I am not a protectionist, but I am a competitor," saying he would modify trade agreements to require worker and environmental protections.


you may compare the details of kerry's plan to bush's, from the same article:

"The best way to make sure people can find work in America is to make sure the business environment, the entrepreneurial environment is strong and solid," Mr. Bush said. "If you want to keep jobs here in America, we need less paperwork."

Mr. Bush said he would push to make high-speed Internet service available in all parts of the country by 2007, and said consumers should have "plenty of choices when it comes to purchasing the broadband carrier." He added, "Congress must not tax access to broadband technology if we want to spread it around."

[vwcruisn]

link (http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/27/politics/campaign/27ECON.html)





you may compare the details of kerry's plan to bush's, from the same article:


hmm.. so bush's plan is to make broadband internet available all over the world? wouldnt that be helping businesses that choose to move overseas? Or am i reading that wrong?

[zimv20]

hmm.. so bush's plan is to make broadband internet available all over the world? wouldnt that be helping businesses that choose to move overseas? Or am i reading that wrong?
article said 'country'

what you're missing is the burden of paperwork. in fact, bush's campaign slogan should be "it's the paperwork, stupid!"

[Desertrat]

Hokay. I found the USA Today article, and read an article in the Yahoo news.

Some bits and pieces: 9% of the lost jobs of the last three years were outsourced. If that's so, the other lost jobs come from reduced sales.

Three million lost manufacturing jobs represent 1/6th of the manufacturing workforce. I have read that in general, manufacturing jobs have been on the decline since before Clinton.

I can see how Kerry's plan would help keep corporations in better financial shape, but I don't see how it would increase sales. And it's the increase in sales which leads to more hiring.

Stipulate for the moment that some number-cruncher's conclusion that red tape, regulation and suchlike paperwork and compliance does indeed add 35% to the cost of doing business. I don't see how Bush' "paperwork reduction" could reduce that 35% enough to matter. We aren't gonna quit regulating in those areas of max cost: Environmental concerns, e.g. Or OSHA. Heck, the EEOC stuff...

I can see how both guys' ideas could help the stock market, but I don't see how any of it would add sales.

Since the dot-com crash, much of the consumer spending has come from the world of refi of houses. And, the secondary money from housing construction, the salary money for the workers. I note that the refi companies have laid off some 15% or 20% of their workforce; refi is slowing way down. Apparently this is another boom which has nearly run its course.

So where is the next round of consumer money gonna come from, to justify hiring ten million workers? Seems to me that we must, repeat must, figure out more ways to sell into foreign markets, and I just don't see that happening within Kerry's time frame.

SFAIK, both Kerry's people and Bush' people are sincere in their beliefs in their proposed programs. I don't doubt that either or both plans would be of some assistance in creating jobs. I do doubt that many millions of jobs would be created.

'Rat

[Rebel]

The following is an economic impact that U-ACT (http://www.ucanation.org/uact.htm/) will have regarding job creation. Real economists (not paid for by politicians) came up with this figure.

According to our projections, the U-ACT plan will help the economy to create 6.5 million jobs over the next three years vs. the 1 million projected by the Bush tax. With 16 MILLION Americans currently out of work, U-ACT will have all of America working in 5 years. The current tax system will take 16+ years.