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srobert
Apr 15, 2004, 12:54 PM
Extract from the article

UCLA Geophysicist Warns 6.4 Quake To Hit LA By Sept 5'

A US geophysicist has set the scientific world ablaze by claiming to have cracked a holy grail: accurate earthquake prediction, and warning that a big one will hit southern California by Sept 5.

Russian-born University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA) professor Vladimir Keilis-Borok says he can foresee major quakes by tracking minor temblors and historical patterns in seismic hotspots that could indicate more violent shaking is on the way.

And he has made a chilling prediction that a quake measuring at least 6.4 magnitude on the Richter scale will hit a 31,200-square-kilometre area of southern California by September 5.

. . .

—> Link to Whole Article <— (http://www.spacedaily.com/news/tectonics-04d.html)

noel4r
Apr 15, 2004, 01:16 PM
oh s***, i hope it hits in the desert where not many people live.

srobert
Apr 15, 2004, 01:27 PM
It's kind of weird. In a big way I hope the guy is completly wrong and that there won't be a big earthquake and that nobody will get hurt...

... but, if he IS right, this means that he found a way to predict earthquakes, which could save countless lives in the future.

Anyway, better safe than sorry. Brace for impact LA. If I was living in LA, I might consider going out of town for a week or two centered on that day. Let's hope this guy's prediction won't cause a panic.

LethalWolfe
Apr 15, 2004, 01:51 PM
Man, and I just got to LA too. My bro lives in Phoenix so at least I have someplace near by to run to. Of course the prediction is "by Sept. 5th" so it could hit tomorrow or it could hit 4 months from now.


Lethal

MacAztec
Apr 15, 2004, 01:53 PM
oh s***, i hope it hits in the desert where not many people live.

Damn, that would be me :)

Im not really worried about earthquakes out here. There was a huge one in the early 90s, and nothing happened. Our pool's water was shaking out, thats about it.

jxyama
Apr 15, 2004, 02:39 PM
if true, then i hope it can be applied to even higher risk areas -> tokyo.

tokyo's been due for a 7.0+ earthquake for quite a while now. given increased population density of the city and magnitude of the expected earthquake, the damages could be even more devastating than the predicted LA one.

it does sound scientific, so it's not some tabloid stuff. i hope either he's wrong or he's right and that we take good precaution by sept.

Sparky's
Apr 15, 2004, 08:15 PM
I've lived through most of the "Big Ones" in the last 50 years. Long Beach in '52, I don't remember the exact location of the '64 quake, The Selmar of '71 I lived in Studio City at the time. Ditto for the 84? I think, and was in Santa Clarita when the Northridge hit in '94 (anyone see a pattern here?) approximately every 10-11 years the LA basin or surrounding area gets hit with a 6.0 or bigger, so it makes sense that in 2004 the predictions are coming out of the woodwork. They could have said Sept 6th though that's my birthday :rolleyes: Glad I live in Up-State NY now, just got to worry about "Thunder Snow" and -30° windchills in the winter, and when summer gets here, its party time in Saratoga Sprigs and Lake George :D

MrMacMan
Apr 15, 2004, 09:51 PM
What they should do is say like a week before so everyone can get the HELL out of the county/cities affected.

that would be a real scientific advantage.

Mr. Anderson
Apr 15, 2004, 10:16 PM
What they should do is say like a week before so everyone can get the HELL out of the county/cities affected.

that would be a real scientific advantage.

and you're going to be able to sell your house in that time, pack everything up and move away?

If it happens, great (great for the prediction, not for the quake) and it can be used in the future to help prepare for quakes around the world and keep the death toll lower.

D

Awimoway
Apr 15, 2004, 11:50 PM
I've been following this story closely for some time now, and I can tell you that LA probably doesn't have much to worry about—well, not any more than they normally do. That headline and the story lead is just poor editing/reporting.

There are two predictions, one with a range of 5 months, the other on the order of years, possibly decades. The short-range prediction concerns eastern Souther California, meaning the deserts. The other forecast is for the southern branch of the San Andreas Fault, which runs along the northern edge of the San Gabriel mountains—not in LA, though somewhat near—then it goes through Cajon Pass and runs along the southern edge of the San Bernardino mountains and out toward Palm Springs before turning more sharply south. And all it says is that the southern end of the fault has been relatively dormant for the last 1500 years and is due to start acting up again, but that's over a 200-300 year range. This second study is based on work on the fault in the Wrightwood area, about 20 miles west-southwest of where I live.

I don't know. I guess I've lived here long enough that I'm not too worried about it. I lived somewhat close to the Landers quake in 92 which, at 7.3, was the strongest quake in California in 40 years. Granted, damage and loss of life would have been worse if it had been close to a populated area, but that's my point. This short term prediction concerns the deserts. And although the San Andreas prediction concerns the big grandaddy fault line of the region, said fault line doesn't run right through LA. A quake on a section of the San Andreas fault nearest to LA—say, in the Palmdale area—would cause a lot of trouble and some loss of life, but it couldn't hold a candle to a quake of the same magnitude on the San Andreas in, say, San Bernardino, where a much higher population lives right on the fault.

Basically the way I see it, the 91 Loma Prieta and the 94 Northridge quakes, though weaker than a “big one,” are good models of things to come. As long as you're not in or near an old brick building or an elevated freeway, you'll probably be just fine. This is not to say that there aren't a lot of other dangerous faults running right under LA, but neither prediction here concerns them (assuming a San Andreas quake doesn't trigger aftershocks closer to the city).

krimson
Apr 16, 2004, 08:48 AM
hopefully it gets trapped in the 909, like so many of my friends.. LOL

well i hope, at least, it isn't when im at work (10th floor)

Juventuz
Apr 16, 2004, 09:35 AM
It could happen next year or in 40 years. The scientist never gave a year it could happen, only that it will happen by September 5th. For all we know it could be August 22, 2040.

srobert
Apr 16, 2004, 09:40 AM
It could happen next year or in 40 years. The scientist never gave a year it could happen, only that it will happen by September 5th. For all we know it could be August 22, 2040.

Now you're just playing with words. ^_^

I'm pretty sure he meant september 5th 2004. However how unfortunate a quake will be, it will be a spectacular milestone for seismology (or a very lucky coincidence) if it do indeed happen before september 5th.

Juventuz
Apr 16, 2004, 02:29 PM
Now you're just playing with words. ^_^

I know ;)

I'm pretty sure he meant september 5th 2004. However how unfortunate a quake will be, it will be a spectacular milestone for seismology (or a very lucky coincidence) if it do indeed happen before september 5th.

I know what he meant, I was just being fecitious.

MrMacMan
Apr 16, 2004, 05:25 PM
and you're going to be able to sell your house in that time, pack everything up and move away?

If it happens, great (great for the prediction, not for the quake) and it can be used in the future to help prepare for quakes around the world and keep the death toll lower.

D
Well your *duh* not gonna be able to sell your house because everyone is moving away from there.

But for a week's notice, yeah I can pack everything "that fast" your gonna leave some stuff behind obviously.


Which is why I like this... and then in the second part you agree with me thats its a good thing... :confused:


If they know the quake is coming -- moving away will save your life, you don't need everything in your house to survive.

wdlove
Apr 16, 2004, 09:56 PM
If the scientific predictions are accurate then I hope that are our Mac Forum members will be OK. I know for sure that Doctor Q is in LA. The important thing is human life. A home can always be rebuilt.