All-Time Top iPhone App Sales Figures and Estimates

[MacRumors]

http://www.macrumors.com/images/macrumorsthreadlogo.gif (http://www.macrumors.com/2009/04/13/all-time-top-iphone-app-sales-figures-and-estimates/)

As part of Apple's one billion app countdown (http://www.apple.com/itunes/billion-app-countdown/) for their iTunes App Store, they have also compiled a list of the all-time top 20 apps [App Store (http://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewCustomPage?name=page1BillionApps&v0=WWW-NAUS-ITSBILLION-TOP20APPS)] for both Paid and Free apps.

Perhaps most interesting is what the potential market for a very successful paid iPhone app might be. A few numbers have been released for some of the top iPhone apps that gives us an idea of the numbers involved. Here is a collection of the known sales numbers for some of the top 20 paid apps. App titles link directly to App Store.

#2. Koi Pond (http://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewSoftware?id=286420263&mt=8) - The New York Times (http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/10/apples-app-store-nears-one-billion-served/) published just a few days ago reveals that Blimp Pilots' virtual pond app has been downloaded an estimated 900,000 times giving the developers about $623,000 after Apple's cut.

#3. Enigmo (http://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewSoftware?id=281736535&mt=8) - Pangea's puzzle game appeared early in the App Store. Pangea's Brian Greenstone recently revealed (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oaTZWRE7Ius) in a YouTube video that Enigmo sold 810,000 units between July 2008 and January 2009 (likely the bulk of sales). The price of this app has bounced (http://appshopper.com/games/enigmo) between $9.99 and $0.99 making it difficult to estimate earnings.

#12. Pocket God (http://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewSoftware?id=301387274&mt=8) - This recent hit is another entertainment app that puts you in control of a small island of inhabitants. Bolt Creative's Dave Castelnuovo revealed in a TouchArcade forum post (http://forums.toucharcade.com/showthread.php?p=157560#post157560) that their app had sold about 500,000 copies as of late March. An impressive feat since it has only been around since January, earning the developers about $350,000 so far.

#19. iShoot (http://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewSoftware?id=293798654&mt=8) - An artillery game by one-man company Ethan Nicholas who is the latest rags-to-riches (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/05/fashion/05iphone.html?_r=1&ref=technology) App Store story. Nicholas revealed to the New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/05/fashion/05iphone.html?_r=1&ref=technology) that he had made $800,000 in five months. His app has held mostly at a $2.99 pricepoint, which estimates his total sales at over 380,000 downloads.

Article Link: All-Time Top iPhone App Sales Figures and Estimates (http://www.macrumors.com/2009/04/13/all-time-top-iphone-app-sales-figures-and-estimates/)

[Shagrat]

Will be interesting to see how this goes, if new devices come out, netbook stylee, or otherwise. More games, etc. This could be massive in the long run.:cool:

[IEatApples]

Yea, I hope (and think) that Apple understand the potential here, and put their focus on making the "gaming" experience on the iPhone/Touch as good as possible. It's clear that gaming is "huge" on these devices. :)

One thing I'm hoping for is a "gaming console" solution. Imagine downloading a game on your iPhone… then download the same game again for free (only pay once) on your Apple TV (the Apple TV version of the game can be in HD)… then imagine playing the game on your big flat screen TV while using your iPhone/Touch as a (wireless) controller! :cool:

[bobbleheadbob]

It seem to me that the App Store has been a huge success for both Apple and these developers.

I've bought most of these apps listed here. Not sure how I'm going to feel about the subscription based model they're going to with 3.0. I can't see myself wanting to pay more than the initial price for most of them. A dollar or two here and there really adds up.

[fastbite]

The numbers are unbelievable. I wish i could wake up one morning knowing how to create an app :( -- and give it a shot.

[Hattig]

Good for those developers who have been able to pay off their mortgages, especially if they wrote the software in their spare time after work. Never underestimate the power of selling hundreds of thousands of $1 applications instead of mere thousands of $10 applications. Then again that's always been my argument for the pricing of music CDs and movie DVDs...

[Bentov]

....Starts Xcode.....see you all in a few months... :D

[MarkMS]

Wow! That iShoot developer made $800k!!?! Amazing. Makes me want to pick up some books on how to write programs for the iPhone/iPod Touch during my spare time. Of course, this isn't going to lure me away from medicine. :D

[AAPLaday]

Fantastic numbers!!!! And on the gaming side imagine an apple tv becoming like a wii with fun interactive games on it. Was just a random thought i had but it could work.

[AAPLaday]

Also these numbers show that its a great platform to develop for and that its worth spending time making your app as good as possible. I loved koi pond! It was one of the first apps i got when i had my Touch. Well that and iPint :D

[deckwalker]

then imagine playing the game on your big flat screen TV while using your iPhone/Touch as a (wireless) controller! :cool:

I like the sound of that! That would rock. I really like the X-Plane series and would love to play them on a flat-screen using my iPhone as a remote. :cool::D

Not sure how I'm going to feel about the subscription based model they're going to with 3.0.:confused::confused::confused:

Huh? Subscription based model? Never heard of that rumor applied to the app store and would seriously doubt that to be true.

[twoodcc]

wow. those numbers are amazing, and are only going to get better. i need to start developing soon!

[iPhoneNYC]

The App Store is a brilliant concept. Especially in this economy you have thousands of people working for free to develop the next hit App. A modern day story of panning for gold in CA. But the fact is that NY Times articles probably propelled thousands more to develop fun new stuff.

[AAPLaday]

Its funny really, there have been symbian and windows mobile phones out there for years and there wasn't an easy centralized place to get your apps. Sure you could hunt around on the web for them but how many people bought the latest symbian phone because of the specs of the hardware and not because it ran that O/S. Nokia N series is really popular over here in the UK but i doubt a high percentage of those people use any other apps than the ones that came with the phone.

Apple has only been here a short time and they got it right with the app store from the start.

[Grimwall]

Huh? Subscription based model? Never heard of that rumor applied to the app store and would seriously doubt that to be true.

What bobbleheadbob is referring to by "subscription-based model" comes from the official 3.0 firmware presentation which mentioned the model of paying an initial price for the application (mostly applies to games) and then buying extra level packs or weapons etc for a small fee as the game progresses.

I am really glad to see actual sales coming out of the Appstore, such good news can only drive competition and introduce new developers to the scene, at the benefit of us all.

Stanford University's seminars on iPhone application development is one more step to the right direction.

[*LTD*]

Its funny really, there have been symbian and windows mobile phones out there for years and there wasn't an easy centralized place to get your apps. Sure you could hunt around on the web for them but how many people bought the latest symbian phone because of the specs of the hardware and not because it ran that O/S. Nokia N series is really popular over here in the UK but i doubt a high percentage of those people use any other apps than the ones that came with the phone.

Apple has only been here a short time and they got it right with the app store from the start.

It all comes down to implementation. It's what lies between the user and the device - how they interact with it. Get that right and you're golden. Apple's done it. In fact, they've been doing it well before the iPhone.

[BongoBanger]

Its funny really, there have been symbian and windows mobile phones out there for years and there wasn't an easy centralized place to get your apps. Sure you could hunt around on the web for them but how many people bought the latest symbian phone because of the specs of the hardware and not because it ran that O/S. Nokia N series is really popular over here in the UK but i doubt a high percentage of those people use any other apps than the ones that came with the phone.

Apple has only been here a short time and they got it right with the app store from the start.

I totally agree. Nokia's approach has been short term, blinkered and greedy and I'm glad Apple gave them the kick up the pants they've needed to get Ovi on the way.

Some people will no doubt argue that Nokia had Download! and N-Gage well before the App store and technically they're right; however there is a massive chasm between the ease of use and functionality the App store brings compared to Nokia's fragmented and arbitrary distribution mechanisms.

The board of Nokia should hang their heads in shame at being sucker punched by Apple.

[DipDog3]

Always glad to see success in the app store.

[Tulse]

Twelve of the top 20 apps cost more than $0.99. Please let this end the developer complaints about cheap pricing on the App Store.

[Bonte]

One thing I'm hoping for is a "gaming console" solution. Imagine downloading a game on your iPhone… then download the same game again for free (only pay once) on your Apple TV ...

I was wondering how the DRM works with apps, can i buy 1 app and keep it on 5 computers? Can i use the app on a iPhone and several Touch's if all of them belong to one account and have network play?

[IEatApples]

I was wondering how the DRM works with apps, can i buy 1 app and keep it on 5 computers? Can i use the app on a iPhone and several Touch's if all of them belong to one account and have network play?

I'm not sure exactly how the rules are, but I'm currently using 2 accounts on my iPhone, and my brother is using the same apps on his iPod Touch… so: :cool: (+ we are using 2 different computers as well).

When there are updates for an app on my brothers account, I'm simply asked to enter his password :D (but it doesn't always work on my iPhone, not sure why, but then I simply go to iTunes & log in with his account, download the update, and then I simply sync the iPhone with iTunes!) :)

[yalag]

YAY we can expect more crap apps along the way each time the media gloss over the few millionares from app store

[johnqh]

Those numbers are actually below my expectations.

Did you notice that no individual developers have produced more than one hit? iPhone is a very difficult platform to create a business with consistent income.

Don't forget there are 30,000 apps right now on App Store, you have 0.1% chance to get above 300,000 downloads, and probably 1% chance to get above 100,000 downloads.

Don't laugh at Windows Mobile. There are companies specialized in WM apps for years. Although they didn't have thousands of downloads per day, they sold for much higher price (normally $15, comparing to 99 cents for iPhone). For business, consistent result is much better than unpredictable hits.

Also, even at 500,000 sales, that number is not impressive at all in the gaming industry. 500,000 sales is a mediocre hit for Wii, DS, or PSP, and those games sell for much higher price.

[RogueWarrior65]

So the lesson here is to totally change one's strategy for coming up with new product ideas from "something really useful" to "something totally pointless." Want to know why we haven't sent astronauts to Mars? It's because people keep spending money on stupid stuff. Pity we can divert that brainpower to bigger problems.

[bghoward]

I'm surprised at everyones optimistic attitude about the app store after seeing these numbers. It is shocking and discouraging.

I have heard the analogy of the California gold rush used to describe the app store and I can tell you that these numbers confirm to me that the app store is an unsustainable bubble that will either have to burst or will completely dry up in the long run.

Just to give you some background on myself, I quit my job 8 months ago and started an iPhone app company. Since then we have released about 7 apps on iTunes. Including our latest app which has an investment, well lets say most people could have easily paid off their mortgage with what we spent (and this is only with 3 employees total).

Think about it, these are the 20 MOST DOWNLOADED APPS. These are the best of the best, most of which came out day 1. With 30,000 apps on the iTunes store what are your chances as a developer making into the top 100 list, much less the 20 most sold apps?

The MOST you can hope for in your wildest dreams for a paid app is 1,000,000 downloads? And if your app is not on the top 20 of all time list, you have sold somewhere south of 380,000 copies. With these numbers I would be shocked if games like iDracula even made 50k after expenses.

To put things in perspective, the average app sells about 15 copies a day at an average price of $1.64.

The price to investment is completely out of whack on the app store. Here is another thing to think about. I estimate that you can buy every app on iTunes for about $75,000. Do you really believe that entire value of investment dollars on the app store is only 75k? Our last game cost a lot more than 75k to develop... and we haven't even made the top 100 list yet. On the other hand how much would it cost to buy every song on iTunes? Every Movie?

It cannot be sustained in the long run, just something to think about before jumping on the bandwagon.

[IEatApples]

Since then we have released about 7 apps on iTunes.

Mind telling us the names of those games? :) … Don't miss out on this promotional opportunity! ;):)

P.S.: Just decided to buy iDracula! :)

[johnnybluejeans]

I agree with some of what you've said, and disagree with some as well. I too am a little shocked by these numbers. I expected each one of these apps to be above 1M units in sales... However, what this tells me (and what I have experienced) is that there is a lot of "meat" in the middle if you produce and maintain some quality applications. Furthermore, and this is a double edged sword, there is a short shelf life for most apps. I say double edged because this means new apps do have a shot at making some money, it's not just the guys who got to the app store first dominating the scene.

The approach is important. I too began developing apps from the get-go, but I did it in the evenings and weekends while keeping my day job. The result has been an enormous boost to my income with no overhead (other than my time) involved in the development process.

Can you sustain a business based on the app store?.. maybe, if you can keep your costs low. However I still believe the greatest benefactor from the App Store is the independent developer.

I'm surprised at everyones optimistic attitude about the app store after seeing these numbers. It is shocking and discouraging.

I have heard the analogy of the California gold rush used to describe the app store and I can tell you that these numbers confirm to me that the app store is an unsustainable bubble that will either have to burst or will completely dry up in the long run.

Just to give you some background on myself, I quit my job 8 months ago and started an iPhone app company. Since then we have released about 7 apps on iTunes. Including our latest app which has an investment, well lets say most people could have easily paid off their mortgage with what we spent (and this is only with 3 employees total).

[Wotan31]

So the lesson here is to totally change one's strategy for coming up with new product ideas from "something really useful" to "something totally pointless." Want to know why we haven't sent astronauts to Mars? It's because people keep spending money on stupid stuff. Pity we can divert that brainpower to bigger problems.
Really? So you think all these iPhone developers are actually just bored, underperforming, rocket scientists? :confused: While were on the subject, why are YOU wasting time and brain power, posting on a Mac rumors web forum instead of designing my rocket ship to mars? Get back to work you slacker!

[iPhoneNYC]

I have always thought that the word 'Koi" was funny. So in my book put the word "koi" in the title and you have a hit. Nothing to prove me wrong yet!

[bghoward]

However, what this tells me (and what I have experienced) is that there is a lot of "meat" in the middle if you produce and maintain some quality applications.

Sure, I have to believe there is some meat in the middle or I wouldn't be in the business. I know from some inside contacts that there are some apps who have pulled in $5m+, you just can't do it with a $.99, and probably not even with an under $9.99 app.

The funny thing is that I started out moonlighting on my first project probably very similar to you as some additional personal income. I would have most likely kept it that way, but I worked as a developer in the mortgage services industry. I saw the writing on the wall and got out of that business at just the right time and escaped the market implosion. The iPhone stuff is what I had going for me so I just ran with it.

Anyway, anyone who is interested can check out our apps at:

InMotion Software (http://www.inmotionsoftware.com/Applications.html)

[johnnybluejeans]

I know from some inside contacts that there are some apps who have pulled in $5m+, you just can't do it with a $.99, and probably not even with an under $9.99 app.


$5m?... that doesn't seem likely unless 1) this top 20 list is BS or 2) the numbers we have for these apps are BS.

Given that we know not a single $9.99 app is in the top 20, and outside the top 20 has to be south of 380k units..

380,000 * 9.99 ~= $3.8m.. far under the $5m mark.

Crash Bandicoot is the only possibility. $5.99 price point with sales over 900,000 units (Koi pond reports 900k and is #2).

[Compile 'em all]

Also, even at 500,000 sales, that number is not impressive at all in the gaming industry. 500,000 sales is a mediocre hit for Wii, DS, or PSP, and those games sell for much higher price.

are you actually reading what is written there? Most of the devs and shops selling apps and making money are individuals and INDIE developers. Please let me know how can you develop an app for the DS and get it distributed and make 300,000 bucks out of it. I am using my personal mac and my iphone for development, how would that work out for a psp or wii? right, didn't think so.

The appstore has been out for some 9 months now and for a very young software platform and you are comparing it to YEARS-old specialized gaming consoles?

[dejo]

What iPhone Apps Are Used Most? Hint: Not Games (http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=103922)

[bghoward]

$5m?... that doesn't seem likely unless 1) this top 20 list is BS or 2) the numbers we have for these apps are BS.

Given that we know not a single $9.99 app is in the top 20, and outside the top 20 has to be south of 380k units..

380,000 * 9.99 ~= $3.8m.. far under the $5m mark.

Crash Bandicoot is the only possibility. $5.99 price point with sales over 900,000 units (Koi pond reports 900k and is #2).

The $5m number is probably BS. It was one of those "through a friend of a friend in the industry" sort of things.

The point I was trying to make is that there is some big money in this thing, it's just not at the unreasonably low pricing that exists today.

[ftaok]

Anyway, anyone who is interested can check out our apps at:

InMotion Software (http://www.inmotionsoftware.com/Applications.html)

I don't have an iPhone (or touch), but I checked out your site anyways. I have to say that PocketDyno looks pretty cool. If I was 24 again, I'd definately go out and buy an iPhone and PocketDyno.

NOTE - I don't work for these guys or anything. Just thought the screenshots looked pretty cool.

ft

[RogueWarrior65]

I have to agree with that. One could make the argument that spending several tens of thousands of dollars on lottery tickets might have as good a chance at success. Also, we've seen the performance curves for apps over time and they're not so great either. What blows me away is that an app that has no practical use is so successful. I can also see that the typical developer would almost have to be somebody hacking in the evenings rather than a formal company with overhead. And from Apple's POV, it's a volume revenue stream. Thousands of apps, hundreds of millions of downloads, and they make a little on each one.

On the other hand though, there were many people in the music industry that said that the iTunes business model would kill the music industry and that hasn't happened yet. IMHO what it encourages is the creation of better content because you can't rely on one good song selling an entire CD of crap. So perhaps the App Store will eventually encourage higher quality stuff built by somebody in their living room.

[DELLsFan]

Yea, I hope (and think) that Apple understand the potential here, and put their focus on making the "gaming" experience on the iPhone/Touch as good as possible. It's clear that gaming is "huge" on these devices. :)

One thing I'm hoping for is a "gaming console" solution. Imagine downloading a game on your iPhone… then download the same game again for free (only pay once) on your Apple TV (the Apple TV version of the game can be in HD)… then imagine playing the game on your big flat screen TV while using your iPhone/Touch as a (wireless) controller! :cool:

Yeah ... that would be cool! The app store is a huge success! There are some really useful apps to be found for the iPhone there. My latest was the LogMeIn ignition app. I was surprised at how quick and easy it was to use. The price was a bit high, but worth it, IMO.

Gaming is huge on the iPod/iPhone. Loads of gaming apps for them as well. I hope Apple sees the writing on the wall here and word spreads to the computer department. Though the modern machines perform ok for many games, I wish there were options to upgrade graphics on an iMac or Mini after-market. Maybe one day ... but meanwhile, I'm not quite ready to invest in a Pro. :D

[bghoward]

On the other hand though, there were many people in the music industry that said that the iTunes business model would kill the music industry and that hasn't happened yet.

True, but anecdotal evidence aside, I think the dollar investment in writing a single song is much less than the investment in making a quality AAA title app/game.

Don't be mistaken about it, Apples primary goal in the app store is in selling more iPhones. An unsubsidized iPhone costs what? $600 or so? Apple probably makes close to %50 margins including the monthly revenue stream from the carriers, call it $300 profit. You would have to buy $1000 worth of apps on iTunes for Apple to make more money off the app store than in selling you the hardware. Consumers like the low app prices, Apple likes the low app prices (makes the iPhone more attractive), developers are left in the cold.

I'm not trying to come off as too cynical here. What these numbers tell me is that unless somethings changes (perhaps micro transactions?) the app stores low prices can only sustain hobbyists and junk apps in the long run, and maybe the occasional indie developer like myself. With these numbers who would invest $250-$500k or more in a game?

[Dmac77]

I just love how iFart Mobile is #16. It even beat Monopoly. There's something wrong with the world, when a fart app beats Monopoly.

Don

[IEatApples]

Anyway, anyone who is interested can check out our apps at:

InMotion Software (http://www.inmotionsoftware.com/Applications.html)

Yea, I had a look at your games, and I like the "Dungeon Defense: Crypt Edition" game, but I wish I could play "with" the invaders instead of the skeletons - meaning: Defend with those others guys AGAINST the skeletons! :)

Any chance you can make this happen? Please? Promise to buy if you do! ;):D

[IEatApples]

@bghoward, or anyone capable of making iPhone/Pod games:

If someone could "port" Heroes of Might and Magic III (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heroes_of_Might_and_Magic_III) they would get filthy rich! :cool:

Yes, I know that Ubisoft owns the rights to the Heroes franchise, but maybe someone "capable" could make them an offer to "help" with an iPhone port? ;)

Sorry, but I just love Heroes… :)

[bghoward]

If someone could "port" Heroes of Might and Magic III (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heroes_of_Might_and_Magic_III) they would get filthy rich! :cool:

Convince me that you and your 300,000 next closest friends will buy it and I'll do it!!!

That's the issue, games with that level of depth are unlikely to happen on the iPhone with the price point consumers are currently demanding. You would never earn back the investment in the game by charging less than $10, but how many people would actually buy a $15-$30 game on iTunes?

[IEatApples]

Convince me that you and your 300,000 next closest friends will buy it and I'll do it!!!

That's the issue, games with that level of depth are unlikely to happen on the iPhone with the price point consumers are currently demanding. You would never earn back the investment in the game by charging less than $10, but how many people would actually buy a $15-$30 game on iTunes?

I understand, but then it's a good move by Apple to add a new higher price point, like they promised when they talked about what's coming in 3.0 :)

+ I'm willing to pay more for quality!

[bghoward]

I understand, but then it's a good move by Apple to add a new higher price point, like they promised when they talked about what's coming in 3.0 :)

+ I'm willing to pay more for quality!

I really hope you're right and it works out in the end. Obviously I have a vested interest in seeing apple do something like that. Still, it's going to be hard changing consumer expectations as there are good games out now on iTunes at a much, much lower price point.

The other issue nobody seems to be talking about is the rampant piracy that currently exists is only going to get worse with the higher price point. With the number of people willing to pirate a $3 game, imagine what will happen with a $20 game. I watched as a single piracy site distributed more copies of our DD game on the first day of it's release then we've sold on iTunes to date and we're not alone.

Apple doesn't seem to be doing anything about it, but then again pirated software does help sell more iPhones...

[kornyboy]

Wirelessly posted (iPhone: Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU iPhone OS 2_2_1 like Mac OS X; en-us) AppleWebKit/525.18.1 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/3.1.1 Mobile/5H11 Safari/525.20)

Man I wish that I was on the receiving end on the money for some of those apps. Props to the developers that created them.

[MacFly123]

Yea, I hope (and think) that Apple understand the potential here, and put their focus on making the "gaming" experience on the iPhone/Touch as good as possible. It's clear that gaming is "huge" on these devices. :)

One thing I'm hoping for is a "gaming console" solution. Imagine downloading a game on your iPhone… then download the same game again for free (only pay once) on your Apple TV (the Apple TV version of the game can be in HD)… then imagine playing the game on your big flat screen TV while using your iPhone/Touch as a (wireless) controller! :cool:

This is what I've been saying for a while, and many others I'm sure! :D

Imagine what Apple could do if they update the Apple TV with an SDK and the App Store!!! :eek: I think they would have a real chance at finally creating and dominating the future entertainment center!

I HOPE I HOPE I HOPE SOOOOOON! This is seriously such a no brainer it isn't even funny!

[iansilv]

It's only a matter of time:

Adboe CS6 sold in app store for Snow Leopard, MS Office sold in app store, etc. etc.

[IEatApples]

It's only a matter of time:

Adboe CS6 sold in app store for Snow Leopard, MS Office sold in app store, etc. etc.

Yes! Office and CS5 (6,7,8…) at $0,99 a piece! :D;) (I'm kidding!)

[IEatApples]

This is what I've been saying for a while, and many others I'm sure! :D

Imagine what Apple could do if they update the Apple TV with an SDK and the App Store!!! :eek: I think they would have a real chance at finally creating and dominating the future entertainment center!

I HOPE I HOPE I HOPE SOOOOOON! This is seriously such a no brainer it isn't even funny!

I know, it's really a no brainer! If Apple doesn't see the potential here then … hmm… how can I express this? Oh, I know: !?:eek::confused::eek:?!
;):)

[MikaMobile]

I felt like posting a comment here in regards to bghoward's words of caution to others interested in the iphone market. The short version is - I agree that the market is currently very volatile and I wouldn't recommend anyone quit their day job to do it full time just yet, much less invest the kind of cash you would on a DS game for example. That said, I think that its a good way (often the ONLY way) for small teams or individuals to get their product out there, and for people without the capital or clout to develop for DS, Xbox Live Arcade, or PSP, its a great opporunity. But hoping to make the next inexplicable success like ifart, or making a clone of an existing hit is no better than buying a lottery ticket. Here's a little background on me:

I developed Zombieville USA, which has been in the top 10 on the US app store for the last month. Our total sales are nearing a quarter million downloads (most of which at $2) although we've done a couple $1 sales when we've released updates to the game.

The budget for Zombieville was pretty much zero dollars - not unlike iShoot, it was pieced together in my spare time over the course of a little over a month.

It's easy to look at my story (and the handful of others like it) and think the iphone is a goldmine, but the fact of the matter is that I got lucky. Is my game good? Sure, people seem to like it, but there are no effective means to market an iphone app right now - visibility in the app store itself is the only certain way to get people to know your app exists. So even a great game won't necessarily find an audience, or at least one large enough to make up for 75k in development costs. We were lucky enough to get featured by Apple on the 'new and noteworthy' section, which made our sales go from a few hundred a day to a few thousand.

And would my story be a success if I had a team to pay salaries too? An office to lease? I read an article on gamasutra recently (around GDC time) that gave some sales averages for iphone games, and they claimed only 3% of iPhone apps ever crack 10,000 downloads. It's really a very different beast than any other platform out there, and it highly discourages long development cycles, large teams, and big budgets - hence the flood of cheap cash-ins that clutter the store. Unless you're an established developer (like gameloft, EA, namco, konami etc) you won't be gauranteed that coveted "shelf space" on the store front, which is the only for-sure way to get seen.

Just my 2 cents.

[jons]

Looks like I need to get my apps running....

[Muskyman]

You need a lot of skill and a lot of luck, but it is possible to make money as a solo developer. You don't have to price your app at $0.99 either. It is possible to have a stable number of sales every day at a higher price.

[mikeinternet]

So the lesson here is to totally change one's strategy for coming up with new product ideas from "something really useful" to "something totally pointless." Want to know why we haven't sent astronauts to Mars? It's because people keep spending money on stupid stuff. Pity we can divert that brainpower to bigger problems.

So true. You don't know how much this bothers me.

[mikeinternet]

I have always thought that the word 'Koi" was funny. So in my book put the word "koi" in the title and you have a hit. Nothing to prove me wrong yet!

You don't think "Big Goldfish Pond" would have done as well?
You might be on to something.

[snowleopard48]

These are my top 3 apps:

Otto Matic

Fieldrunners

Toy Bot Diaries (1,2 and 3)

note that all of these apps are games. :)

[johniphone]

Did you notice that no individual developers have produced more than one hit?

Not true. I've had two apps in the top 3, and 5 in the top 100.

[jwhoward]

Can you sustain a business based on the app store?.. maybe, if you can keep your costs low. However I still believe the greatest benefactor from the App Store is the independent developer.

I'm with InMotion Software too (see posts by bghoward). For those of us developers with an office and employees to support, the confirmation that the number 2 app of all time earned something around $600K is disappointing. It forces us to re-calibrate our thinking. Large investments typical of the software world at large, developed in traditional ways, are virtually impossible to sustain in the current AppStore marketplace. The fun, challenging, and ultimately rewarding task ahead is to figure out how to make it work.

We continue to see the AppStore as an exciting dynamic marketplace that provides great opportunities for new players. But it, like any free market is efficient. That's another way of saying developers will eventually find a way to consistently and profitably produce and effectively promote what people will buy, or find something else to do with their time and money. InMotion is fortunate to be recently cash-flow positive, with sales growing slowly every week, but I suspect we are in a very small minority.

You've heard the old adage: "Be careful what you wish for, you may get it." In the end consumers will get the AppStore they vote for with their dollars. Don't forget the market maker's strategy may be market penetration of its hardware platforms. This strategy, whatever it may be, or however it may evolve, will impact the level of investment and quality of apps produced in the long run.

www.InMotionSoftware.com (http://www.inmotionsoftware.com/Applications.html)

[mccldwll]

I'm surprised at everyones optimistic attitude about the app store after seeing these numbers. It is shocking and discouraging.

I have heard the analogy of the California gold rush used to describe the app store and I can tell you that these numbers confirm to me that the app store is an unsustainable bubble that will either have to burst or will completely dry up in the long run.

Just to give you some background on myself, I quit my job 8 months ago and started an iPhone app company. Since then we have released about 7 apps on iTunes. Including our latest app which has an investment, well lets say most people could have easily paid off their mortgage with what we spent (and this is only with 3 employees total).

Think about it, these are the 20 MOST DOWNLOADED APPS. These are the best of the best, most of which came out day 1. With 30,000 apps on the iTunes store what are your chances as a developer making into the top 100 list, much less the 20 most sold apps?

The MOST you can hope for in your wildest dreams for a paid app is 1,000,000 downloads? And if your app is not on the top 20 of all time list, you have sold somewhere south of 380,000 copies. With these numbers I would be shocked if games like iDracula even made 50k after expenses.

To put things in perspective, the average app sells about 15 copies a day at an average price of $1.64.

The price to investment is completely out of whack on the app store. Here is another thing to think about. I estimate that you can buy every app on iTunes for about $75,000. Do you really believe that entire value of investment dollars on the app store is only 75k? Our last game cost a lot more than 75k to develop... and we haven't even made the top 100 list yet. On the other hand how much would it cost to buy every song on iTunes? Every Movie?

It cannot be sustained in the long run, just something to think about before jumping on the bandwagon.


Pulleeeeze. Sounds like Dvorak. "Cannot be sustained"? To the contrary, it's a platform and will continue to grow exponentially.

[Khryz]

This makes me want to be an iPhone developer!

[wonza]

This makes me want to be an iPhone developer!

It really shouldnt. These the sales figures for all time selling apps out many 10,000's of apps.. saying that is almost like saying, musicians sell lots of records therefore I want to learn to play the guitar

[edesignuk]

If only I could program, were creative and had a good idea...ho-hum...

[sushi]

wow. those numbers are amazing, and are only going to get better
Yes they are.

Imagine when we start getting more powerful office type apps that will sell for higher $.

Seems like the iPhone platform is getting better all the time. :)

[iMacoo7]

Makes some think about becoming a Developer!

[ThunderSkunk]

I'm surprised at everyones optimistic attitude about the app store after seeing these numbers.

It cannot be sustained in the long run, just something to think about before jumping on the bandwagon.


You are living in fantasy land if you think most other businesses in the world are able to turn a better profit faster. Try working in an industry that actually manufactures something. You're happy if after 3 years you're finally in the black, and enjoying a 10% margin on your products, with millions invested in a hell of a lot more than the principals time.

Ridiculous.

[Drag'nGT]

I have got to figure out how to write the code for the apps I have in my head. :mad:

[jwhoward]

Pulleeeeze. Sounds like Dvorak. "Cannot be sustained"? To the contrary, it's a platform and will continue to grow exponentially.

There are more than 30,000 apps today, growing at just less than 6,000 per month. If that continues apace, by year end there will be roughly 80,000 apps on the AppStore. Yes the platform will grow and grow amazingly. That's Apple's genius. They earned an estimated $61,000,000 gross after payment of royalties on 4th quarter 2008 AppStore revenue, plus whatever hardware sales were driven by the mere existence of the AppStore. Stories of overnight millionaires will no doubt continue to attract thousands of new developers. That looks pretty sustainable to me.

Now examine "sustainability" from the developer's standpoint on the AppStore of today: If you group all paid apps into "buckets" according to daily royalties paid to developers, by far the most common buckets will lie in the range of $12 to $24 per app per day. Use the upper figure and assume sales will continue for a year (both of these assumptions are optimistic). This comes to $8,760/year. Not bad if you consider it extra income, but if you run it like a business and allow for overheads (18%) and the expectation of a modest profit (15%), that leaves a development + updates budget of $5,869, and $0.00 for promotion.

Let's say we don't hire 3rd world programmers and it costs $45/hour to pay employment taxes, benefits like health insurance and vacation, and a moderately competitive wage in the US (say about $68,000 in salary). We can afford to budget about 3 weeks total per app. So **commercially sustainable** development for the vast majority of developers means: deliver 18 bug-free, high-quality, feature-full, innovative apps a year per programmer. If and when you get a "hit", pour a few more dollars into the app to sustain or increase sales.

Here's another inconvenient truth: fewer than 2% of paid apps will earn enough money to recoup a combined development and promotion budget exceeding $50,000, or about 28 person-weeks of effort - not big numbers in the application development world. Not too many more than 1/2% of apps will make it onto the top 100 list or a promoted list. A small handful of these "exceptional" apps will earn a few hundred thousand dollars.

Keep in mind these numbers will come under even more pressure when the AppStore has 80,000 instead of 30,000 apps. I happen to think the AppStore is an *incredible* opportunity for the small developer, particularly to get into the game industry, but I wouldn't suggest any romantic ideas about earning a million dollars overnight. Success will require innovative approaches to structuring the business, rethinking development processes, and even how promotion is accomplished. Just good old hard work seasoned with a smidgen of good luck. Eventually those who can't make it will leave.

Draw your own conclusions about who will win, who will lose, how customers will be served, and how sustainable the business model is for the average developer.

www.InMotionSoftware.com (http://www.inmotionsoftware.com/Applications.html)

[TotalForge]

I really appreciate working devs taking time to post here.

I find the math being done to estimate things like percent chance of selling 10,000, to be overly simplistic, with a lot of factors assumed to be static forever.

It is wise to remember that the user base of 18 million devices is growing very quickly. During one conference call, Apple disclosed, iirc, that they were selling 50,000 3G iPhones a week. Perhaps this has slowed with the economy, but the iphone ecosystem is still very young and growing fast.

The user base, the App Store, and impact of new HW features on app development are all very much guaranteed to change. The app sales playing field will change with them.

[kdarling]

Its funny really, there have been symbian and windows mobile phones out there for years and there wasn't an easy centralized place to get your apps.

The Handango store has been around for about ten years.

The big difference is that other makers didn't try to control and profit from the sales of every app. Imagine the screams if Microsoft had made a single WM app store before now.

However, Apple has indeed opened the floodgates for other OS/maker based stores. This could have repercussions they didn't expect. Reminds me of the supposed Yamamoto quote:

"I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve."

[iphonerain]

ah, yes, okay, now i don't feel like a pansy toying around w/pocket god while i'm waiting in line at starbucks in the morning. it somehow lessens my stress about the 30 minute long line when i throw down coconuts at those things.

[k'five]

The only apps I've found that I actually use are:

Cycorder, Winterboard, SafariDownloader, Mobilefinder, Netatalk

1. Airsharing (though I picked it up while it was free, I'd have spent $100)
2. Fieldrunners (most addictive game since SMB3)
3. Tris (also free, & before EA nicked it, and worth every penny)
4. Netshare, once in a blue moon.

All I really want, is a nice, simple little midi piano roll editor for writing & arranging tunes on the go, syncable to the workstation somehow. I've got a twelve year old install of Digital Orchestrator Plus that I keep on a motion tablet pc just for writing on the go. It could easily be a direct copy of that program. No keyboard req'd. God how I'd love to ditch that contraption and just conveniently flesh out ideas on my iphone instead.

[jwhoward]

I really appreciate working devs taking time to post here.

I find the math being done to estimate things like percent chance of selling 10,000, to be overly simplistic, with a lot of factors assumed to be static forever.

It is wise to remember that the user base of 18 million devices is growing very quickly. During one conference call, Apple disclosed, iirc, that they were selling 50,000 3G iPhones a week. Perhaps this has slowed with the economy, but the iphone ecosystem is still very young and growing fast.

The user base, the App Store, and impact of new HW features on app development are all very much guaranteed to change. The app sales playing field will change with them.

Thank you. You make good points. I do agree with you that the marketplace is dynamic. The AppStore provides unprecedented opportunities along with interesting challenges. The 3.0 firmware promises to shake things up a bit. I don't rule out Apple changing submission requirements to control app growth, or even creating a "premium" app category. Who knows for sure. So, obvious simplifications aside, what I describe in my previous post is not far off from what a typical developer can realistically expect today. Whatever the future holds, it should be a fun ride for developers and users alike.

Yes the install base is amazing, but examine the dynamic a little deeper. Take the install base of 18 million devices growing at 50K per week. That's an impressive 2.6 million new devices by year end, or about 14.4% growth. Some analysts have predicted user appetite for paid apps will grow 10% this year on a per device basis. Combine these two elements of growth and we come up with 15.8% greater demand for apps year-over-year. 2008 ended with about 20,000 apps, arguably it will be about 80,000 by year end 2009. That's 400% growth. So growth in available apps will outpace growth in demand by a factor of 25. Yes, the analysis if over simplified, but if the actual number is 10 or 15 or even 20, it does not substantively change the points, which are: (1) it will be tougher to get app exposure as time goes on, and (2) the "typical" app will earn less money than it does now. So successful developers will have to find new ways to stand out.

www.InMotionSofware.com (http://www.inmotionsoftware.com/Applications.html)

[ikramerica]

The Handango store has been around for about ten years.

The big difference is that other makers didn't try to control and profit from the sales of every app. Imagine the screams if Microsoft had made a single WM app store before now.

However, Apple has indeed opened the floodgates for other OS/maker based stores. This could have repercussions they didn't expect. Reminds me of the supposed Yamamoto quote:

"I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve."

Actually, Apple, by releasing a dev kit and helping developers create qualified iPhone apps is basically following the MS consent decree that they were unwilling to do without government intervention. MS was keeping key parts of their Windows OS private so their programs would be better. Apple is, on the other hand, keeping some parts of the iPhone OS private so that the developers don't bring down the OS. Apple is not selling any additional software on their own. There is a case to be made that they should not be able to stop people from creating apps that use certain features, but to Apple's credit, they are not excluding others just so they can profit with a monopoly on the feature.