Any sign of recession weakening in your area?

[63dot]

Tonight I saw on the local news some bright news regarding tourism in Northern California. People may be spending more money again.

One thing I started seeing in these last few weeks is more traffic everywhere and that could be a good sign that people are shopping more, and there are more jobs. I don't know if this is just a regional trend or national.

[yg17]

I had to run up to my VW dealer after work today to take care of some paperwork for my new car and I noticed that there were quite a few people looking at cars. Who knows if they were buying anything or just kicking tires, but I guess it's a good sign compared to the Chevy dealer where I had to pick up my rental car at a few weeks ago (they have an Enterprise there). No one was in the lot or showroom and the salesmen were just standing around outside watching my mom and I like hawks as we pulled into the parking lot, I'm surprised they didn't try to sell us one of their crap buckets :D

[chrmjenkins]

It's LA. You see Beemers, Benzes and Audis every day. How am I supposed to tell? :D

[jecapaga]

Hard to say if it's getting better but there does seem to be a general feeling of things not getting worse. The crazy spiral and negative talk has sort of waned a bit but maybe that's because people are just beat down so much to give it anymore of their energy. I'm thinking positive.

[MonksMac]

I think it may be easing a little. I agree with the other poster in the fact that it doesn't seem to be getting any worse and things seem to be picking up. Hopefully within a year things will be not quite so bad as they have been for the past few months. :)

[LumbermanSVO]

I'm still waiting a day or two between loads due to a lack of freight. When things were good I knew what my next load was before I was finished with m current load.

[Peace]

I got kicked out of a bar last night. Does that count ?:p

[mactastic]

Watching the job boards as I have been these past few months, I'm starting to see an increase in postings for hiring. Not much, but a little.

I'm still not convinced we're recovering yet, but it looks to me like things are getting worse at a slower pace than they have been.

[bruinsrme]

The job boards in the central mass and metro west seem to have a lot of employmnt agenies posting bogus jobs. People apply to them, these agencies collect them and then use them as bargining chips in the rates they charge companies looking for people.
The jobs don't exist.

[Desertrat]

I don't see any possibility of any bottom, yet, given how many houses are in foreclosure, how many ARMs are to reset this year and next, and the commercial real estate bankruptcies increasing.

I've been browsing for a vehicle upgrade, and one salesman commented that financing is a problem for many would-be buyers. Lenders want more down payment and better credit ratings.

Kunstler.com asked the question, "To what do we recover?" McMansions? Frou-frou spending at Starbuck's? SUVs?

The fundamental causes for this mess are still in play. There are trillions of dollars in debt to work down or write off before there can be any sort of re-start to growth.

A couple of good articles are http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/imf-advice and http://www.lewrockwell.com/swanson/swanson14.html

As long as the Fed and the Administration/Congress are following policies which have only been failures in the past, I see no way to find magic, now.

'Rat

[Kronie]

What's improving a little is consumer confidence, but just a teeny tiny bit.

The consumer days of the USA are done and good riddance. Unfortunately, what that means for us (in the USA) and the rest of the world is a massive slow down in the worldwide economy. These jobs probably are not coming back anytime soon. We just need to learn to live with less and stop using credit for everything.

One positive thing about the recession is that our savings rate has finally started to rise. because people aren't spending what they don't have they are finally able to save a little......Those that still have a job.

[Tomorrow]

Here in north Texas, I've been asking around in my industry (engineering) and I'm hearing very, very little about layoffs. I still get contacted once or twice a week by headhunters. I don't think it hit us as hard as much of the country.

[leekohler]

Yes. My company just won a huge national account. It's been along time since that happened. So I take that as a good sign.

[Eraserhead]

Tonight I saw on the local news some bright news regarding tourism in Northern California. People may be spending more money again.

One thing I started seeing in these last few weeks is more traffic everywhere and that could be a good sign that people are shopping more, and there are more jobs. I don't know if this is just a regional trend or national.

I think the recession is lessening over here in the UK.

[Tomorrow]

Yes. My company just won a huge national account. It's been along time since that happened. So I take that as a good sign.

That's good news - I'm glad to hear it!

[SteveMobs]

Over here in Reston, VA, (northern Virginia, just outside of D.C.) It was never as bad as other places but it seems to be letting up. There's still zombies all over the place though. Oh btw, the zombie apocalypse happened here, it's pretty annoying.

[leekohler]

That's good news - I'm glad to hear it!

It's REALLY good news. We were all beginning to wonder what was going on. Things are slowly getting better.

[Queso]

Both mortgage lending and retail sales were up in the UK in March. Although it's a very small crumb of comfort against a wall of bad economic data it does appear as if money is beginning to flow again.

[chrmjenkins]

This holiday shopping season will be the big test of confidence. I'm thinking that we will definitely start seeing the recovering by the end of 2010, though.

[iJohnHenry]

I think once The Big Three have settled with the unions/gov't, and things have calmed down a tad, then things will start to perk-up.

[Tomorrow]

It would also go a long way for credit to start loosening back up - part of why car and home sales are down is because it's not as easy to get a loan as it used to be.

[adrianblaine]

It's LA. You see Beemers, Benzes and Audis every day. How am I supposed to tell? :D

Not to mention lotus, ferraris, lamborghinis and maseratis...

I was laid off almost 5 months ago (Architecture was hit pretty hard at the beginning of it all) and though I know of others around LA who lost their jobs, it doesn't seem like too much has changed.

I did notice that the local Audi dealership stopped renting space in our apartments parking garage to keep part of their inventory. They used to keep upwards of 150 cars parked down there, and now there are none. But whenever I go shopping it seems like not much has changed since I moved here 2 years ago.

[Eanair]

The job boards in the central mass and metro west seem to have a lot of employmnt agenies posting bogus jobs. People apply to them, these agencies collect them and then use them as bargining chips in the rates they charge companies looking for people.
The jobs don't exist.

:eek:

In MetroWest?

Seriously?

[63dot]

Going through towns and malls in my region late last year and early this year, one thing I noticed, whether it was Christmas shopping or needs for early spring, was that the parking lots were as empty as the roadways.

These last two weeks now see way more people at the mall, parking spaces extremely hard to find, and bumper to bumper traffic even on very remote county roads. It took five minutes for me to pull out of a residential street curbside parking on a block with four businesses. Cars everywhere and almost as crazy as the good times.

Either the economy is pulling out of the recession here, or it's still just as bad and 100s of thousands of people have decided it might just be cool to drive around, window shop, and drive some more (but I kind of doubt that). People seemed very intent on getting places and purchasing stuff.

The grocery store fired their security guard since there was almost no measurable traffic. Now people are fighting over parking spots. Parking lot rage, scarcity of parking spaces ... now that sounds like a pretty serious turnaround where I am in the South Bay Area. On top of that, police departments are hiring like crazy to deal with the suddenly increased traffic volume. I hope this scenario plays out in small towns everywhere. I don't expect the recession to hit big cities as badly, so if small towns are starting to show increasingly positive activity, this could be the fastest pullout out of any recession in US history.

Only time will tell.

[stevento]

Half of the job losses in this recession (started in dec 07) have been since January.
So the recession is going strong. It's like a storm, sometimes you just have to wait it out.

I felt like car shopping, and I'm and SUV guy (environmentalists, back off) so I went to look at the Yukon Denali. So I went to the GMC-Pontiac dealership I know and guess what... It was boarded up and out of business. The dealership seemed to be going strong like a month ago.

[63dot]

Half of the job losses in this recession (started in dec 07) have been since January.
So the recession is going strong. It's like a storm, sometimes you just have to wait it out.

I felt like car shopping, and I'm and SUV guy (environmentalists, back off) so I went to look at the Yukon Denali. So I went to the GMC-Pontiac dealership I know and guess what... It was boarded up and out of business. The dealership seemed to be going strong like a month ago.

I could go on about your gas guzzling SUV, but I have a Volvo station wagon that's 25 years old and gets 25 gallons to the mile. I guess back then, when gas was not quite a concern for the Volvo target audience, the idea of safety was building the walls of the car similar to that of a tank.

The car doors are so heavy I have to routinely oil them so I can shut them. I also have to put air in the relatively new tires quite often since this beast weighs a ton. When I have to make a lane change I feel like I am in the Ace Hardware delivery truck I used to drive, but that truck was more nimble. :)

[Desertrat]

Looks to me like it's going along about like many have expected: Getting worse.

From Mish Shedlock's blog:

"Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage delinquencies among the most creditworthy homeowners rose 50 percent in a month as borrowers said drops in income or too much debt caused them to fall behind, according to data from federal regulators.

The number of so-called prime borrowers at least 60 days behind on mortgages owned or guaranteed by the companies rose to 743,686 in January, from 497,131 in December, and is almost double the total for October, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said in a report to Congress today.

Of all borrowers who ended up in default, 34 percent told Fannie and Freddie they were earning less money, about 20 percent cited excessive debt as a reason for missing mortgage payments, and 8.1 percent blamed unemployment, FHFA said."

[iPhoneNYC]

I feel that recovery is quite a while off.

[LumbermanSVO]

Monthly freight tonnage down 12.2 percent over last year:

http://www.etrucker.com/apps/news/article.asp?id=78108

[63dot]

I feel that recovery is quite a while off.

I think it will change over to a regular economy at different rates in different areas. What I see with people buying everything like crazy could be two major factors.

The first being all the California tax refunds coming in (rushed via the Governor and the federal government stimulus) and the second being all the desperate slashed prices in big box stores, small shops, wholesalers, and on restaurant menus. The grocery stores, which reflected higher prices due to more expensive gas, vs. the 77 cent a gallon gas here a few years ago, have reverted many prices back to that time. Better to sell the goods now in the grocery store at minimal profit instead of let it get stale at the higher prices they tried to pull off a couple of months ago.

I went to buy bottled water, which used to be 99 cents or so a gallon, went up to $1.35 or more when gas got over two dollars, and higher yet when gas peaked past four dollars, but is not as 80 cents a gallon.

I sincerely hope that pockets of skyrocketing economy here and there translate to an overall national trend.

These days when I see massive traffic, daily now, where I once saw just a few cars, makes me happy to know all those people got new jobs, more people are on new bus lines, and more delivery trucks are actually finding clients to deliver to. A multi-billion dollar expansion of Bay Area Rapid Transit, aka BART, has been approved and ground is breaking as we speak.

[Desertrat]

"I sincerely hope that pockets of skyrocketing economy here and there translate to an overall national trend."

Can't. Won't. Unfortunately, sincerity and hope don't pay off or write down debt nor make mortgage or loan payments.

[hulugu]

"I sincerely hope that pockets of skyrocketing economy here and there translate to an overall national trend."

Can't. Won't. Unfortunately, sincerity and hope don't pay off or write down debt nor make mortgage or loan payments.

Damn. I was hoping they'd take my sincere hope that someone else pays them. Now I have to write the check for real. ;)

[rasmasyean]

I think the recovery is comming soon. The stock market shows some good signs. It seems to lead the economy rather than the other way arround. I guess people start "feeling" richer and start spending and expanding and producing more stuff. It's all psychological. I think now more people are going to jump in the market and raise the indexes again and that will start the recovery in a couple of months.

[Ugg]

I think the recovery is comming soon. The stock market shows some good signs. It seems to lead the economy rather than the other way arround. I guess people start "feeling" richer and start spending and expanding and producing more stuff. It's all psychological. I think now more people are going to jump in the market and raise the indexes again and that will start the recovery in a couple of months.

Wishful thinking...

[63dot]

Wishful thinking...

Some areas like a few cities near where I am will recover in a few months, but some areas will also take a few years.

Looking on past recessions, they almost always go from 2-10 years and it's a hard call to say when it's all over. I first started seeing some industries taking a hit in late 2006, namely real estate.

[rasmasyean]

Some areas like a few cities near where I am will recover in a few months, but some areas will also take a few years.

Looking on past recessions, they almost always go from 2-10 years and it's a hard call to say when it's all over. I first started seeing some industries taking a hit in late 2006, namely real estate.

A few years would be a pretty long time. I do see a bright area up ahead potentially. The broad band efforts might spark some activity. Nowadays it seems everyone is trying to deliver HD content and cloud computing services in various forms. Hopefully, this will help the infrastructure rebuilding with the stimulus and all and trickle some jobs and business down to the grunt work as well. I see some big changes in the way we think of media and software up ahead, that’s for sure. But in order for it to work people need the ability to access it. The 4G networks like WiMax and all should help a little to get the last mile people. It would really suck if all these big business investments all go to shambles. I don’t think the government will let that happen.

[stevento]

I think it will change over to a regular economy at different rates in different areas. What I see with people buying everything like crazy could be two major factors.


I went to buy bottled water, which used to be 99 cents or so a gallon, went up to $1.35 or more when gas got over two dollars, and higher yet when gas peaked past four dollars, but is not as 80 cents a gallon.

This is off topic, but I don't know why anybody buys bottled water over and over again. I live in CA and I went into target and got a brita attachment for my faucet for $20 and replace the filter for $5 every so often. That's got to pay for itself pretty quickly when compared to going to those water stores.

On a more relevant note, I think Los Angeles is more likely to bounce back quickly because there is so much opportunity here. In detroit, there isn't much for folks who don't have college education.

I think the recovery is comming soon. The stock market shows some good signs. It seems to lead the economy rather than the other way arround.

Well let's hope, but when you turn on CNN or MSNBC etc, all you hear is "omg the economy is awful. life is horrible. let's kill ourselves" styled reporting

Looking on past recessions, they almost always go from 2-10 years and it's a hard call to say when it's all over.
I haven't been around long enough to know about past recessions, but I don't get the feeling that is one is coming to a close in the near future.

[kastenbrust]

theres actually no sign there ever was or is a recession in my area, im wondering when the pains going to come but it doesnt seem like the worlds ending at all.

[Desertrat]

Even in the 1930s, not every city or state suffered equally. My mother commented that while times were hard, Austin, Texas wasn't hit nearly so hard as places like the major cities of the northeastern US. For those who had jobs--which was generally averaging a bit over 80%--the deal was that there was little spare cash for frou-frou and toys.

Lots of "saving up" for things: I recall searching for soda pop bottles for the 2¢ deposit to get the dime for a Saturday matinee at the movies. Lots of "either/or": Either a 25¢ hamburger OR a 25¢ malt--but not both. Grownups did the same for cars or houses. 50% down to buy a car; at least 20% down to buy a house, if not more.

[leekohler]

Even in the 1930s, not every city or state suffered equally. My mother commented that while times were hard, Austin, Texas wasn't hit nearly so hard as places like the major cities of the northeastern US. For those who had jobs--which was generally averaging a bit over 80%--the deal was that there was little spare cash for frou-frou and toys.

Lots of "saving up" for things: I recall searching for soda pop bottles for the 2¢ deposit to get the dime for a Saturday matinee at the movies. Lots of "either/or": Either a 25¢ hamburger OR a 25¢ malt--but not both. Grownups did the same for cars or houses. 50% down to buy a car; at least 20% down to buy a house, if not more.

Or don't buy the car at all, take the train or bus if you can. And wait to buy the house when it's feasible. I've taken to clipping coupons and taking breakfast to work. I still grab lunch out though. We're also moving to a cheaper apartment in October. Rent has come down a LOT. We've seen some really nice places for $200 less than we're paying now. And our current rent is already considered cheap in this city.

[yg17]

Or don't buy the car at all, take the train or bus if you can. And wait to buy the house when it's feasible. I've taken to clipping coupons and taking breakfast to work. I still grab lunch out though. We're also moving to a cheaper apartment in October. Rent has come down a LOT. We've seen some really nice places for $200 less than we're paying now. And our current rent is already considered cheap in this city.


I can't get around without a car. Public transportation in this city is a joke.

Before Metro made some major cutbacks, a 45 minute drive to work would be about 2 and a half hours on the bus and train (not including the 30 minute walk to the bus stop). Now, with those cutbacks, I don't think me taking public transportation to work, or anywhere in the city, is even possible. I need a car and would rather go into debt to own one than to lose my job.

[leekohler]

I can't get around without a car. Public transportation in this city is a joke.

Before Metro made some major cutbacks, a 45 minute drive to work would be about 2 and a half hours on the bus and train (not including the 30 minute walk to the bus stop). Now, with those cutbacks, I don't think me taking public transportation to work, or anywhere in the city, is even possible. I need a car and would rather go into debt to own one than to lose my job.

Did you miss the "if you can" part of my post? ;)

[rasmasyean]

Or don't buy the car at all, take the train or bus if you can. And wait to buy the house when it's feasible. I've taken to clipping coupons and taking breakfast to work. I still grab lunch out though. We're also moving to a cheaper apartment in October. Rent has come down a LOT. We've seen some really nice places for $200 less than we're paying now. And our current rent is already considered cheap in this city.

Yeah that is true. I'll have to admit that I've never looked for "sale items" before as I thought it was a waste of time. Now there have been so many sales tags arround that you have to look and it like captures me. Althought I can still afford to buy full price items, those tags are captivating and I do take notice of them because the news. It's like the overall "mood" of the environment LOL. It makes no logical sense as I'm thinking that I'm still wasting time making periodic trips/stops to see if "there's anything good on sale" and buying things on sale that I didn't want but "could use". I guess I'm just human...like all the other weaklings on Earth subject to media hype. sigh. But I get to save a few dollars at least instead of buying Apple's unecessary luxuries! :p

[Desertrat]

Dunno if it's because I'm an Olde Phart or if it's from being raised on Depression stories: I always tried to find the least-cost rent in a location which allowed a least-time commute. I'd pass on a job if it meant a lengthy commute, or only look for a residence somewhere within my own notion of "reasonable" commute time. Basically, anything to hold down my overhead.

I could have had more gross income in Houston, but the net remaining money at the end of the year from the lower cost of living in Austin made it come out equal.

'Rat

[Digital Skunk]

There's no sign of a recovering economy in my city at all. The only good thing about it is that many of the citizens were already eating beans out of the can and going to dollar stores and the salvation army for clothes, food, etc.

The only difference is now we have once middle class citizens to compete with.

And I have noticed a lot of advertising coming from failing real estate companies now that no one's buying houses or condos.

[yg17]

Did you miss the "if you can" part of my post? ;)


Hmmm, yeah, I guess I did. Oops ;)

[rasmasyean]

Dunno if it's because I'm an Olde Phart or if it's from being raised on Depression stories: I always tried to find the least-cost rent in a location which allowed a least-time commute. I'd pass on a job if it meant a lengthy commute, or only look for a residence somewhere within my own notion of "reasonable" commute time. Basically, anything to hold down my overhead.

I could have had more gross income in Houston, but the net remaining money at the end of the year from the lower cost of living in Austin made it come out equal.

'Rat

Nah, your being a geezer doesn't have much to do with it. ;)
It's a matter of preference and situation. If you have a house/family settled in, you might try to stay in one area. But there are also people who go where the opportunity is and make do with whatever they net after the fact. Some people would even move their entire families for a job they like or feel it has potential. And other's will just get a job in the city and pay the high cost of living even though they would have more savings in the country. But yeah, you never know because take NYC where incomes are high but people are poor on average and compare it to other states who's average net worth is substantially higher but not as "glamourous" of a living...whaterver that means.

EDIT: regarding the above net worth statement, I read it someone in some statistics a while ago. I can't find it anymore so take it with a grain of salt unless you can dig up evidence. :)