Thinking Out Loud: Blu-Ray, Sony, Microsoft, HD-DVD, and more ...

[ChrisBrightwell]

[DISCLAIMER: I hope this is posted to the right place (Digital Video) to get attention and accurate answers from the people who are most likely to know. If it's in the wrong place, mods, please move it.]

OK ... Serious question time.

Sony blamed the shortage of laser diodes for the PS3's weak launch numbers. Low availability means lower production numbers, etc, etc. OK.

According to Wikipedia, HD-DVD (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HD-DVD) and ]Blu-ray (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blu-ray) both operate on a 405 nm wavelength, which is created by a blue-violet laser.

This is where you say, "Wait ... what?"

Now ... let's look at something. Not only are HD-DVD and Blu-ray players readily available on the consumer market, but Microsoft just shipped a metric crap-ton of HD-DVD add-on drives for the Xbox 360.

So ... If there are plenty of the infamous blue-violet diodes out there to make set-top manufacturers and Microsoft happy, what's the problem with Sony? The official reason for pushing back the EU launch was a shortage of diodes. Presumably, that's the same reason that the US and JPN launches have been so anemic.

I don't get it. If HD-DVD and Blu-ray operate with the same laser (on the exact same wavelength!), what's really going on?

If there's someone can shed some light on this, please do.

[iMeowbot]

There are two (soon three) makers of blue-violet parts: Nichia, Sony and soon Sharp. IOW, the Sony shortages are their very own self-made problem.

[LethalWolfe]

[DISCLAIMER: I hope this is posted to the right place (Digital Video) to get attention and accurate answers from the people who are most likely to know. If it's in the wrong place, mods, please move it.]

OK ... Serious question time.

Sony blamed the shortage of laser diodes for the PS3's weak launch numbers. Low availability means lower production numbers, etc, etc. OK.

According to Wikipedia, HD-DVD (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HD-DVD) and ]Blu-ray (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blu-ray) both operate on a 405 nm wavelength, which is created by a blue-violet laser.

This is where you say, "Wait ... what?"

Now ... let's look at something. Not only are HD-DVD and Blu-ray players readily available on the consumer market, but Microsoft just shipped a metric crap-ton of HD-DVD add-on drives for the Xbox 360.

So ... If there are plenty of the infamous blue-violet diodes out there to make set-top manufacturers and Microsoft happy, what's the problem with Sony? The official reason for pushing back the EU launch was a shortage of diodes. Presumably, that's the same reason that the US and JPN launches have been so anemic.

I don't get it. If HD-DVD and Blu-ray operate with the same laser (on the exact same wavelength!), what's really going on?

If there's someone can shed some light on this, please do.

A number of set top players have been delayed until next year because of the shortage, and I'd dare say MS might have started production of their HD-DVD side car before the shortage hit and/or used strong arm tactics to get parts, and/or hoarded parts because they saw this shortage coming.

PS3's weak launch, IMO, is in part to due supply shortages but I don't think that's the whole story. I think the PS3 was rushed to market in time for Xmas and they extended the development cycle as long as they could which meant a very short production run and a weak launch. But giving another Xmas to the 360 and launching months after the Wii wasn't an option.

BTW, this thread might be more at home in the Games section.

Lethal

[gkarris]

There are two (soon three) makers of blue-violet parts: Nichia, Sony and soon Sharp. IOW, the Sony shortages are their very own self-made problem.

Sony has a shortage of their own lasers. For cost reasons, they won't buy them from someone else. Hence, the "shortage"..

MS uses Toshiba drives in their HD-DVD drive, Toshiba buys from the other two, hence more options and supplies...

BE QUIET!!!

[Spanky Deluxe]

Sony has a shortage of their own lasers. For cost reasons, they won't buy them from someone else. Hence, the "shortage"..

MS uses Toshiba drives in their HD-DVD drive, Toshiba buys from the other two, hence more options and supplies...

BE QUIET!!!

I've got a feeling Sony might be limiting the numbers they're producing right now in order to save themselves from losing too much money - waiting for the production costs to come down. They couldn't give another Christmas away to the competition for one and they probably quite like the hype and the talk that the lack of PS3s is generating. People are talking all the time about how they can't get hold of them which in turn makes other people think its something worth getting. This is only a feeling though, I've got nothing to back it up apart from the estimated losses Sony are making right now.

[flyfish29]

come on now- look at almost every launch of a gaming system and shortages are the status quo. Shortages get free press EVERYWHERE, web sites pop up and boost the momemtum for products, TV stations do news stories, newspapers, etc jump into the mix. Shortages have never had anything (for the most part) to do with technology, but MARKETING! Now that being said, I think the only other part that played in the "shortage" has been the comment about Sony losing so much money. I also think that the HD TV thing is very close to going mainstream and will next year and once it does the PS3 along with every other HD tech. will take off.

[Chone]

[DISCLAIMER: I hope this is posted to the right place (Digital Video) to get attention and accurate answers from the people who are most likely to know. If it's in the wrong place, mods, please move it.]

OK ... Serious question time.

Sony blamed the shortage of laser diodes for the PS3's weak launch numbers. Low availability means lower production numbers, etc, etc. OK.

According to Wikipedia, HD-DVD (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HD-DVD) and ]Blu-ray (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blu-ray) both operate on a 405 nm wavelength, which is created by a blue-violet laser.

This is where you say, "Wait ... what?"

Now ... let's look at something. Not only are HD-DVD and Blu-ray players readily available on the consumer market, but Microsoft just shipped a metric crap-ton of HD-DVD add-on drives for the Xbox 360.

So ... If there are plenty of the infamous blue-violet diodes out there to make set-top manufacturers and Microsoft happy, what's the problem with Sony? The official reason for pushing back the EU launch was a shortage of diodes. Presumably, that's the same reason that the US and JPN launches have been so anemic.

I don't get it. If HD-DVD and Blu-ray operate with the same laser (on the exact same wavelength!), what's really going on?

If there's someone can shed some light on this, please do.

Have you ever thought that maybe the set top and drive makers don't have to meet a 1 million units demand...

I'm just saying, I bet Toshiba for example has less than 10000 hd-dvd products out, if not a lot less.

[sikkinixx]

As of September, Toshiba had said they sold only 25,000 HD-DVD players according to this (http://www.digitalhome.ca/content/view/1557/98/) so they aren't exactly pumping these things out. I know MS has a lot of them but are millions of people going to buy them? and if there is a shortage for them will it really matter all that much? They are really just trying to make sure Sony can't list anything better than they do (hence the 1080p update). For Sorny (lol great Simpsons episode) they need MILLIONS of those blue laser doodads just to get their product in the hands of us consumers so even a small shortage is gonna have bigger, more talked about effects.

I can't help but think a Spring launch would have be WAY better. I mean if they had a say 3-4 million units ready and all the games even more polished (and more of them) wouldn't it have been much nicer? I know they didn't wanna give up ANOTHER xmas to MS but by rushing the PS3 out (and it is rushed) they have just pissed off a lot of people.

Hmmm....no stock at all? Bad
Scalpers buying huge amounts of systems? Bad
Stupid upscaling problem? Bad
Poorly porting launch games? Bad
3 original titles? Bad
No remote etc. ready for launch? Bad
PSP<->PS3 not working so hot? Bad
Really idiotic PS1 emulation? Bad!

I was willing to drop over $1000 on a PS3 with a game and all that jaz in October...but now... I might just sit it out until the Summer or Fall to pick one up until Sony gets their crap together. I think the Wii was rushed out too quickly too (crappy launch games, weak VC games, no component cables, lack of wiimotes/nunchucks, no channels ready, etc.) but it looks like a beauty compared to the PS3 gongshow.

[GFLPraxis]

Scalpers buying huge amounts of systems? Bad


Good for the scalpers :D

(crappy launch games, weak VC games, no component cables, lack of wiimotes/nunchucks, no channels ready, etc.)

I dispute the crappy launch games; there's Zelda. Who needs more? :D

Weak VC I think was deliberate; Nintendo has basicly said that they want weekly releases and they're going to release rare/famous titles every time there is a dull period with few game releases. They probably only put like 20 games up there on purpose so they could add more later. I'm waiting for Super Mario RPG.

Component cables, lack of Wiimotes and lack of channels of course are obviously glaring oversights and signs of rushing.

The lack of online play is IMHO the biggest drawback to launch, and some third party games were rushed (Call of Duty 3 had multiplayer mode removed because there they wanted it to be at launch, and there's of course no online play).

[eva01]

weak VC games?

Golden Axe and Altered Beast, comeon now, probably two of the best genesis games ever

[GFLPraxis]

weak VC games?

Golden Axe and Altered Beast, comeon now, probably two of the best genesis games ever

Not to mention RISTAR!

But regardless, only a few Genesis games are available. Where's my Sonic & Knuckles?

[eva01]

Not to mention RISTAR!

But regardless, only a few Genesis games are available. Where's my Sonic & Knuckles?

Well i don't think you can go with a sonic sequel before you get the first, so just give it time for Sonic to be on there for a little while. Which it has been since launch, so maybe soon?

[SpankyPenzaanz]

Really idiotic PS1 emulation? Bad!


In what way is it doing PS1 emulation in the first place(I thought it was hardware based)

[greatdevourer]

In what way is it doing PS1 emulation in the first place(I thought it was hardware based) Hardware based is overkill - Either Cell really really really really sucks, or it'll be able to emulate it, uprender it and anti-alias it a few times just fine. However, iirc, the problem with PS1 emulation is that the PS3 doesn't emulate it - that's (for some reason) the PSP's job

[SpankyPenzaanz]

Hardware based is overkill - Either Cell really really really really sucks, or it'll be able to emulate it, uprender it and anti-alias it a few times just fine. However, iirc, the problem with PS1 emulation is that the PS3 doesn't emulate it - that's (for some reason) the PSP's job

So to play ps1 games I need a psp? What a bunch of hoohaa! I thought it was as simple as putting in a ps1 disc picked up at the bargain bin at ebgames or has anybody tried that?

[sikkinixx]

So to play ps1 games I need a psp? What a bunch of hoohaa! I thought it was as simple as putting in a ps1 disc picked up at the bargain bin at ebgames or has anybody tried that?

sorry I meant downloading the PS1 games. Regular PS1 disks work fine with PS3 (I think). The way it works now is that you can buy PS1 games from their store, but it goes directly onto your PSP so you can't play downloaded games on the PS3 (yet) and you can't save the downloaded games on the PS3 HDD or on a computer making it a pain in the ass. They need direct PC-PSP downloads for emulator games.

[zero2dash]

Like flyfish29 basically said:
Sony wants shortages, Sony has shortages.

Free and large amounts of press, not to mention the sidebar stories about people camping out, being robbed, shot for their Ps3, etc.

Pump up the demand, put eBay's name out there, Christmas presents for little Jimmy, etc. stuff like that.

They claimed to be able to make 400,000 launch Ps3s. They didn't even achieve half that (from the numbers that have been released, they were around 189,000 I believe).

I call BS. :rolleyes:
Supply and demand. + publicity :D

[ChrisBrightwell]

Quick update ... Joystiq is reporting (http://www.joystiq.com/2006/12/14/november-npd-revised-data-reveals-current-install-bases/) that MS sold 42,000 HD-DVD drives in November. That's more than 20% of total PS3 sales, by volume, for the same period.

Xbox360 HD-DVD drives have been selling quickly all season, by everything I've seen/read, and they're still stacked to the ceiling in most places.

[MacRumorUser]

They are sold out over here in Ireland & UK almost everywhere including all the online retailers.

[Antares]

If there's someone can shed some light on this, please do.

Heh heh. Nice one. :)

I highly doubt that the shortages of the diodes were intentional, by the way.

[thebeephaha]

Ah sony...

[flyfish29]

Sony is pretty smart as it looks now- they have announced they only shipped the 189,000ish PS3's so far, but they claim they have "fixed production problems" and now will ship 1 million by the end of the year. So they have shortages to increase demand then ship enough to get high numbers by the beginning of 2007! If they do ship that many they will be in a very good position after only 1 month+ of the ps3~

[clayj]

Sony is pretty smart as it looks now- they have announced they only shipped the 189,000ish PS3's so far, but they claim they have "fixed production problems" and now will ship 1 million by the end of the year. So they have shortages to increase demand then ship enough to get high numbers by the beginning of 2007! If they do ship that many they will be in a very good position after only 1 month+ of the ps3~The least trustworthy phrase in the English language is "Sony claims". It seems like virtually EVERYTHING they've said about the PS3, from its original announcement through now, has been false in some way.

"We'll have dual-1080p support." Wrong.
"We'll have this cool new boomerang controller." Wrong.
"We'll have 2 million of them in the US for launch." Wrong.
"We'll have 1 million of them in the US for launch." Wrong.
"Assassin's Creed will be a PS3 exclusive." Wrong.
"We have 400,000 of them in the US for launch." Wrong.

With Sony, my new motto is "I'll believe it when I see it." :p

[GFLPraxis]

That's not even mentioning HDMI, "PS2 and PS1 games will be upscaled to 1080p", and of course, Killzone 2.

The only thing they were consistent on is the price.

[GFLPraxis]

I have an interesting thought.

The way things are going, it's a possibility the PS3 might do very, very badly in the United States. However, it is still likely to outsell the XBox 360 in Japan; even with the loss of Dragon Quest (which is HUGE; Dragon Quest VIII was the top-selling PS2 game of all time), Final Fantasy XIII will probably sell a PS3 to a third of Japan. The XBox 360 on the other hand is virtually nonexistant in Japan; the Wii's first day outsold the XBox 360's entire Japanese lifetime sales.

What happens if HD-DVD ends up the dominant format in the United States, but due to the PS3, Blu-ray ends up dominant in Japan?

[ericsthename]

What happens if HD-DVD ends up the dominant format in the United States, but due to the PS3, Blu-ray ends up dominant in Japan?

I guess you could chalk that one up to the biggest difference between japan and n/a since the fork and the chopstick parted ways!

[sixstorm]

I work at Blockbuster and we get a magazine that talks about official DVD and game sales. Turns out that as of early December, HD-DVD is selling Blu-Ray out 3 to 1. In a survey posted in the magazine, 35% of people were not even interested in BR technology, 17% were really concerned about the price and the rest was really not important, but were in 10% or less factions.

So it's official, HD-DVD is kicking BR in the balls. BR is going to fail this year, the sooner the better.

[gkarris]

All I know is when I tried the PS3 at the store on launch day, the fancy Sony display it's hooked up to switches to 720p when playing the game demos. All that money for mainly 720p games?

I know, I hear the XB360 has only 720p, but at least I don't expect the games at that system price to be 1080. At Sony's prices, it better be...

Not a very good first impression.

[jdechko]

I know, I hear the XB360 has only 720p, but at least I don't expect the games at that system price to be 1080. At Sony's prices, it better be...

Actually, with the Fall dashboard update, the 360 is now capable of running at 1080p. It already was capable of 720p/1080i. So that in that respect (and that's the only one I'm comparing with this post, so no flames) it makes the 360 seem like that much better of a deal. (Or the PS3 that much worse).

[zero2dash]

Quick update ... Joystiq is reporting (http://www.joystiq.com/2006/12/14/november-npd-revised-data-reveals-current-install-bases/) that MS sold 42,000 HD-DVD drives in November. That's more than 20% of total PS3 sales, by volume, for the same period.

Xbox360 HD-DVD drives have been selling quickly all season, by everything I've seen/read, and they're still stacked to the ceiling in most places.

They are sold out over here in Ireland & UK almost everywhere including all the online retailers.

I'll be going the HD-DVD route myself sometime within the next 6 months; forget the Blu-Ray is what I think. For one, it only costs me the additional $200. For another thing - I have no faith in Sony's products, and even less faith in their ideas of formats. They already screwed me on one (Memory Stick specifically their PRICE) with a digital camera, luckily I wasn't dumb enough to get a PSP and get stuck with shoddy UMDs and my parents were wise enough in the 80s to buy a VHS player instead of a frickin' Betamax. Sony's track record in pushing their own format is a 0% success rate. :rolleyes:

[gkarris]

Actually, with the Fall dashboard update, the 360 is now capable of running at 1080p. It already was capable of 720p/1080i. So that in that respect (and that's the only one I'm comparing with this post, so no flames) it makes the 360 seem like that much better of a deal. (Or the PS3 that much worse).

Yep, 1080p - got that for my HD-DVD add-on, but I thought I read somewhere that all the games for XB360 were only 720p?

[GFLPraxis]

Yep, 1080p - got that for my HD-DVD add-on, but I thought I read somewhere that all the games for XB360 were only 720p?

Originally, XBox 360 did 720p and 1080i. Many consider 720p to be the better of the two.

The latest firmware update added 1080p to XBox 360's capabilities.

[MacRumorUser]

Originally, XBox 360 did 720p and 1080i. Many consider 720p to be the better of the two.

The latest firmware update added 1080p to XBox 360's capabilities.

Just to add,

Unlike the PS3 the 360 will take a 1080i or 720p picture and upscale it to 1080p. Unlike the PS3 that cant do any upscaling.

So more games run at 1080p on the 360 than the ps3.

[coffey7]

Just buy both and throw out the loser. Just say no to beta max,