Apple Q4 2004 Financial Results Webcast

[MacRumors]

Apple will webcast (http://www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/earningsq404/) its Q4 2004 financial results conference call via QuickTime at 5:00pm EDT (2:00pm PDT) on Wednesday, October 13, 2004.
Please note that comments made during this call may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, and that actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements. For more information on the factors that could influence results, please refer to Apple's SEC filings.
In additional to revenue, profit, and other sales figures, information about Apple developments and product releases is sometimes revealed during these conference calls, such as when Apple confirmed plans for the G5 iMac during the Q3 results (http://www.macrumors.com/pages/2004/07/20040714172326.shtml) conference call in July.

[DMann]

I predict good things :)

[entropybran]

this is cool I'm sure it will be quite suprising

[dotnina]

I think we'll hear some big sales numbers, especially of the new iMac! :)

[swissmann]

I bet they are making a lot of money. Part of me is happy that my purchases contribute to that. Part of me is sad that those purchased I made weren't at a lower price. :)

[kjgnola]

The quarterlies are good, but the annuals are better at getting an in depth look at them. Anyone know when they generally announce those?

[bborofka]

I think we'll hear some big sales numbers, especially of the new iMac! :)

I doubt it, considering they went 2 months with no iMac to sell. I predict sales still dwindling below 1 million units and roughly the same or less year-over-year unit growth.

I hope I'm wrong. Apple needs to grow the Mac.

[GFLPraxis]

Wonder if they'll announce anything about the eMac...

[niji]

I doubt it, considering they went 2 months with no iMac to sell. I predict sales still dwindling below 1 million units and roughly the same or less year-over-year unit growth.

I hope I'm wrong. Apple needs to grow the Mac.

what planet are you living on?

AAPL will blow the whisper numbers out of the sky.

profit takers have already sold off during the past 4 trading sessions before the public announcement of the best quarter in apple's history.

52 week highs. analysts predicting US$45 is new safe level.

split by end of year?

[Private Public]

The quarterlies are good, but the annuals are better at getting an in depth look at them. Anyone know when they generally announce those?

I thought a fiscal year started in oct or is that just the government? so sept? maybe in jan if they follow the calendar.

[Doctor Q]

Each business can pick its fiscal year. Apple's fiscal year probably runs from October through September each year, since they report Q1 results mid-January, Q2 results mid-April, Q3 results mid-July, and Q4 results mid-October.

Edit: The answer (http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=107357&p=irol-faq#fin3):Apple's fiscal year 2005 runs from September 26, 2004 to September 24, 2005. See the calendar (http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=107357&p=irol-calendar) of events for a tentative schedule of earnings release dates for FY2005.

[bborofka]

what planet are you living on?

AAPL will blow the whisper numbers out of the sky.

profit takers have already sold off during the past 4 trading sessions before the public announcement of the best quarter in apple's history.

52 week highs. analysts predicting US$45 is new safe level.

split by end of year?

iPod and iTMS are to thank for this. They really are saving Apple. But in the midst of all their success, Mac sales have remained stagnate. They can't get past the 1 million units/quarter level they were at when the iMac peaked in the late 90s. They should be growing at the same rate, if not faster than the PC industry in order to gain some marketshare. iPod and iTMS aren't helping the Mac at all, neither has the Switch campaign, the G5, LCD iMacs, etc., except to keep existing Mac users on the platform. Thankfully they make the best software in the industry.

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't predict sales of Macs over 1 million tomorrow. Last quarter was the first quarter Apple sold more iPods than Macs. With having 2 months of no midrange desktop Mac, I predict that gap to further increase.

iPod sales are great and are no doubt giving financial Apple success it hasn't seen in years. But I am concerned about the state of the Mac and what Apple plans to do about it.

[niji]

bborofka
you are right about iPod saving apple.
just like iMac saved apple in 1997.
the bottom line doesnt care which sku contributed.
AAPL is iSyncing on all gears now:
education is slowly coming back
server business is growing
laptop share is growing very quickly
share of market (in USA) is proven to be up .5% over the last 7 months
iLife producst doing well
new iMacs getting favourable reviews from diehard PC-apologist reviewers
i dont suggest anybody buys at 40, but if you had bought at 17 like i did, you would be happy too now.

by the way, i always separate my wallet/AAPL from my heart/mac.

what i dont like is:
no Microsoft Office replacement suite by apple
no obvious continual upgrade path for G5 powermac top of the line
a real ingrained fear of failure now (post cube?) to experiment

this from a person who has two cubes...

[rikers_mailbox]

Are there numbers that will support the "halo effect"? This is what analysts are getting excited over. . . its and indicator for *new* customers and increasing Apple marketshare. The iPod had opened new outlets for Apple, hopefully it's also increases sales of Macs.

[Doctor Q]

no Microsoft Office replacement suite by appleApple software is generally great, and I'd love to see AppleWorks evolve into something for the 21st century, but thinking like an investor would lead me to favor continued Apple support for MS Office, to know that Apple would stay on a level playing field for business customers.

[niji]

i frankly dont believe there is a halo effect, or we would be seeing sales of mac computers grow tremendously. it isnt happening.
however, apple (physical) stores are still growing. and doing well. so it wont take long for a kind of trickle-down halo to take effect.

by the way, i completely forgot about the switch campaign until someone mentioned it a few posts ago: what has happend to Ellen Feiss??

[thatwendigo]

iPod and iTMS are to thank for this. They really are saving Apple. But in the midst of all their success, Mac sales have remained stagnate.

WRONG.

http://www.macworld.com/news/2004/07/14/numbers/?lsrc=mcrss-0704

Well, let's do a little math.

The total revenue from computer sales:
iMacs and eMacs - 243,000 units for $235 million ($967 average revenue)
iBooks - 240,000 untis for $261 million ($1,087 average revenue)
PowerBooks - 220,000 units for $435 million ($1,977 average revenue)
PowerMacs and Xserves - 173,000 units for $332 million ($1,919 average revenue)

Total CPU sales: $1,263,000,000
Total units: 876,000
Average overal revenue per unit: $1,441


Total revenue from iPod sales:
iPods - 860,000 units for $249 million ($289 average revenue)

Assuming that Apple achieves continued linear growth at the last rate (183%), it will take at least three years of almost doubling the current sales (or some 5,270,000 ipods per quarter in Q3 2007) to equal CPU sales and start to actually be the "saving grace" of Apple. By contrast, if Apple maintains a linear growth on their CPU sales, the same Q3 2007 figures would yield $1.871 billion on an increase of actual units that would total a mere 1.297 million units that quarter, which is a comparatively svelte 30% increase. Keep in mind that the same revenue in iPods would require increasing production elevenfold just to match where they are right now, and that's on revenues and not profits. I'd bet Apple makes a much fatter margin on the computers than the iPods.

[BakedBeans]

WRONG.

http://www.macworld.com/news/2004/07/14/numbers/?lsrc=mcrss-0704

Well, let's do a little math.

The total revenue from computer sales:
iMacs and eMacs - 243,000 units for $235 million ($967 average revenue)
iBooks - 240,000 untis for $261 million ($1,087 average revenue)
PowerBooks - 220,000 units for $435 million ($1,977 average revenue)
PowerMacs and Xserves - 173,000 units for $332 million ($1,919 average revenue)

Total CPU sales: $1,263,000,000
Total units: 876,000
Average overal revenue per unit: $1,441


Total revenue from iPod sales:
iPods - 860,000 units for $249 million ($289 average revenue)



although i know and agree with what your saying, its not quite as black and white as that really....i would suggest that alot of people that have brought ipods have opened their eyes to the mac world and switched... i do thik the ipod is the savour of apple.. well prehaps not the saviour but i think they would be in real trouble if they didnt have it...i feel the ipod turns people into swither alot of the time

[thatwendigo]

although i know and agree with what your saying, its not quite as black and white as that really....

How can you not agree with math?

[BakedBeans]

How can you not agree with math?

sorry i pressed submit by mistake... ive filled the rest i now... i didnt think you would reply that fast...your on fire ;)

plus i said i agree with what your just saying but math isnt the be all and end all...math isnt this great formula to be correct... math cannot account for everything

[nagromme]

... Mac sales have remained stagnate.
I just wanted to note that stagnant Mac sales still means adding huge numbers of Mac users. The Mac user base is increasing even with flat (or declining) sales--it's just not increasing AT an increasing rate, which would be nice. But regardless, Apple makes money and the platform grows.


i frankly dont believe there is a halo effect, or we would be seeing sales of mac computers grow tremendously.
There is a halo effect, it's in no doubt--you see lots of comments from people who tried a Mac because of the iPod. The question is, how BIG an effect, and you're right, it's not tremendous at present.

But that's not how it would work... if iPods make some people take Apple and Macs more seriously, when before they were simply off the radar, that's great--but it doesn't make them run out suddenly and buy a Mac. What it DOES mean is that in a year or three, the next time they were going to buy a computer anyway--or maybe the one after that--it just might be a Mac.

The halo effect is strongest long-term, not short-term.

[BakedBeans]

There is a halo effect, it's in no doubt--you see lots of comments from people who tried a Mac because of the iPod. The question is, how BIG an effect, and you're right, it's not tremendous at present.

But that's not how it would work... if iPods make some people take Apple and Macs more seriously, when before they were simply off the radar, that's great--but it doesn't make them run out suddenly and buy a Mac. What it DOES mean is that in a year or three, the next time they were going to buy a computer anyway--or maybe the one after that--it just might be a Mac.

The halo effect is strongest long-term, not short-term.


i would say i does make people run out and buy a Mac... i know loads of people that have done it... i am one of them, well i wanted a G5 before... but it pushed me over the edge... of course we will never know one way or the other how much it effects mac sales

[niji]

absoulutely great comments in all these posts. well done.
think different.

[TorbX]

absoulutely great comments in all these posts. well done.
think different.

Que? :o

[jayray]

Not my opinion. But food for thought.

http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2004/commentary04100703.htm :

:confused:

[Windowlicker]

I'm crossing my fingers for some info on product announcements. Also, I could imagine the stock going up after the call. I'll be watching if I'm having some idle time.

[liketom]

thinking about it , it should be good result! i for one have been Mac for just over a year now and i have had
iBook G3 12" -£799 (aug 03)
eMac G4 1.25 -£699 (april 04
PowerBook G4 1.33 -£1399 (july 04)
iPod mini - £179 (aug 04)
iPod 3g 20Gb (recon) £169 (oct 04)

plus Panther Upgrade on my iBook - £99
Final Cut Express 2 £199
plus around £220 on iTunes Music store

so i have spent in just over a year £3763 ($6,738.18 US)on Apple goods - dam right it should be a good year for them.

hope my mrs is not reading this she will kill me for spending that much money

Tom

[tamtam]

I think the ipod will be the major force behind their financial results , however I think the G5 line revenues and profits will drag down the overall financial number because of the extensive delays in shipping products and the rebates they gave to customers who are waiting 4+ months for their orders to be shipped.

[boriskraft]

Not my opinion. But food for thought.

http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2004/commentary04100703.htm :

:confused:


For a completely different picture, see http://daringfireball.net/2004/08/2004_wont_be_like_1984

- Boris

[marco114]

21¢ ... You heard it here first.

-MP

[asif786]

Hi,

Does anyone know that time this will be broadcast in the UK? It's soo hard to work out all of your damned time differences!

Thanks
Asif

[manu chao]

Hi,

Does anyone know that time this will be broadcast in the UK? It's soo hard to work out all of your damned time differences!

Thanks
Asif

10PM (5+5)

[kuyu]

If anyone cares, here is the link to EDGAR and all of Apple's SEC filings. Enjoy.

http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000320193&owner=include

I'm betting that Apple's forward vertical integration strategy will pay off in the long run. We're already starting to see a more consumer focused Apple, and hopefully this will fix the bullwhip effect that keeps those stupid one button mice shipping.

Later tonight I'll do a quick analysis of the data and report my findings here. As well, I'll throw a couple of valuation models at the data and see what happens. (I haven't taken the series 3 or series 7, so don't act on what I say.)

[maya]

What did someone say New Products? ;) I wanna see :D


This is going to be a good Q4 for Apple considering they have been selling quite a lot of XServer to various countries and firms. Plus they portable line for Back to School people. Plus the late coming iMac G5 for those brave last min students. :) eMac for the K12 market. And we are finally seeing PM G5 shipping along with the iPod mini in numbers. Also lets add this new Colour iPod to the mix that I have a feeling will surface at this meeting since they seem to be making a deal out of it. :D

It's not going to be a good and to some point great Q4, wel also have to remember the hPod and the whole Staples Business Depot thing. Plus iTMS. :D

.25 you heard it here people ;) :D

[ijimk]

I will watch this I am always curious to how apple is doing.

[iMeowbot]

The quarterlies are good, but the annuals are better at getting an in depth look at them. Anyone know when they generally announce those?

Apple's 10Ks usually turn up in Edgar around the third week of December.

[iMeowbot]

i frankly dont believe there is a halo effect, or we would be seeing sales of mac computers grow tremendously. it isnt happening.
On the contrary, CPU year-over-year sales were up 14% units/19% dollars in the last quarterly report. That's not shabby at all. Word from Apple's retail stores was that about half of Apple retail store purchases were switchers, and that many of those customers noted experiences with the iPod as a reason to take a look at Macs.

[wdlove]

I will be anxiously waiting to hear what Apple will have to say. Especially to hear the interpretation by my fellow MacRumors members.

[hulugu]

Not my opinion. But food for thought.

http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2004/commentary04100703.htm :

:confused:


And the other side of that article:

http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2004/commentary04100702.htm

Natch.

[Freg3000]

HOLY! Over 2 million iPods!

http://macminute.com/2004/10/13/aapl/

[mattroberts]

By Rex Crum
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Apple Computer (AAPL) on Wednesday reported a fourth-quarter net profit of $106 million, or 26 cents a share, on revenue of $2.35 billion. Excluding $4 million in after-tax restructuring charges, Apple earned $110 million, or 27 cents a share, to beat the estimates of analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call who expected a profit of 18 cents a share on $2.15 billion in revenue.

Just came over Marketwatch.
cheers

[macidiot]

Nice results. Analysts weren't even close, as usual. What a blowout quarter for iPods. And that was even before the HP ipods. Looks like Christmas is going to be huge. Like 4-5 million ipods. I know I'll be contributing if Apple comes out with those 60GB ipods. :D

Too bad computer sales numbers weren't that great. Decent, but not great. Still, a great quarter overall. If the imac sells at all, Apple stock will be at 50 in 6months.

[shawnce]

Official Q4 press release (http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2004/oct/13results.html)

Q4 financial statements (http://images.apple.com/pr/pdf/q404fin_statements.pdf)

Q4 unit shipment summary (http://images.apple.com/pr/pdf/q404data_sum2.pdf)

[shawnce]

Too bad computer sales numbers weren't that great. Decent, but not great. Still, a great quarter overall. If the imac sells at all, Apple stock will be at 50 in 6months. A lot of the low sales of Mac systems was expected because of G5 CPU supply issues, at least Apple didn't fully expect supply situation to improve much before mid/end September. We shall see what they have to say in the conference call starting up soon (2pm PST) about how supply issues affected G5 based system shipments.

Looking at unit shipment numbers... systems not using G5s look to have done the best in relative shipment terms (iBook up 74% from last year and only down 1% from last quarter, PowerBook up 21% from last year and only down 3% from last quarter while G5 based systems between 9 and 29% from a year ago and between 6 and 10% from lasts quarter). Also factor in the strong shift to portables from desktop systems that Apple has been seeing during this year.

[thatwendigo]

I'll make two comments:

1) It looks like portable sales, despite cries of the G4 being outdated, are really taking off. The iBook is up 74% year over year and the Powerbook is up 21% from Q4 2003.

2) Despite selling over 2 million units in Q4, the iPod is still nowhere near the revenue from the hardware lines. It's more than twice the number of units as CPUs, and yet less than half the profit. Tsk. Looks like the "omg teh ipawd savs Appul" crowd is wrong again.

[Macmaniac]

Conference call is on right now. Lets see what happens.

[ajb13]

AAPL now trading at $42.06 - Just jumped 5.81% or $2.31 after the announcement on after hours trading. Can anybody say $45 by tomorrow morning! :-D

Now at $42.14 in just 5 minutes!

[iMeowbot]

6% y/y up on CPU sales? Not bad at all, especially given some predictions that the missing iMac would ruin the quarter!

[takao]

2) Despite selling over 2 million units in Q4, the iPod is still nowhere near the revenue from the hardware lines. It's more than twice the number of units as CPUs, and yet less than half the profit. Tsk. Looks like the "omg teh ipawd savs Appul" crowd is wrong again.

if i look correctly at the numbers the revenue from the ipod is nearly as much as imac and ibook combined
so the ipod is easly handed the most sucessfull product apple offers at the moment (if you mean revenue = succesfull)

of course i have no ideas of the numbers and might be completly wrong ;)

[shawnce]

iPod has over 65% of all digital portable players (in US I believe) over 90% if you limit it to hard drive based.

Supplies for 1.8/2.0 GHz G5 CPUs didn't match demand as expected in the August timeframe, additionally supplies for the 2.5Ghz G5 CPU didn't match demand as expected in September timeframe. So G5 CPU supplies have affected all PowerMac and iMac shipments during all of Q4 however month over month they have been shipping more and more of those systems (in August they shipped more then what the shipped in July and in Sept. the shipped more then twice sum of both August and July).

They expect that during Q1 G5 supplies will finally match demand with the only possible exception being the 2.5GHz CPU but they feel even that will unlikely still be an issue by the end Q1. In other words Q1 should see G5 shipment catching up and stay up with demand.

In retail stores they are still seeing around 50% of Mac buyers as new to the mac platform and/or buying their first computer. Have not seen a dip in this percentage... they believe it is strongly fed by the "halo" effect of the iPod.

Apple has chosen and continues to chose to not target the sub-800 computer systems market and instead spend R&D funds on iPod, iTMS, and systems they currently ship.

eMac up 40% or so if I heard that correclty