iPod Possibilites?

[MacRumors]

A recent post from an anonymous source at iPodlounge (http://www.ipodlounge.com/ipodnews.php?id=P5308) claims that the previously rumored (http://www.macrumors.com/pages/2004/10/20041001170829.shtml) Flash-memory based iPod due by Christmas will have controller chips provided by SigmaTel. If true, these new iPods are expected to be out by the Christmas shopping season of 2004, adding a possible $99 price point to the iPod family.

These rumors come in addition to others about a possible new 60 GB color-screened iPod (http://www.macrumors.com/pages/2004/10/20041008004309.shtml) capable of showing a photo slideshow of synced or downloaded photos. Pricing for the color 60 GB model is expected to be set at the previous-generation high point of $499.

Also in the rumor mill are rumblings of a black special-edition U2 iPod (http://www.macrumors.com/pages/2004/10/20041018211323.shtml), to be pre-loaded with at least the next U2 major album release, if not more of their catalog of songs (possibly all of their previous releases). This rumor has been picked up not only in the Mac community, but in mainstream news (http://us.cnn.com/2004/TECH/ptech/10/12/tech.apple.reut/index.html) as well, lending a little credence to the story. The limited edition model is expected to be released October 26th (http://www.macrumors.com/pages/2004/10/20041018125520.shtml) at a media event put on by Apple & U2.

One interesting submission today made reference to another audio-related debut on October 26th - to be made by XM Satellite Radio (http://cnn.netscape.cnn.com/ns/news/story.jsp?id=2004102207460002605881&dt=20041022074600&w=RTR&coview=). Expected from them is a 'walkman-like' wearable portable system for XM receiving and playback. Said to be hard-drive based for recording and later retrieval, it may not be out of the bounds of possibility that the new iPod may be a factor in its development, if not being the XM device itself.

[rendezvouscp]

XM radio would be totally awesome. I wonder if they are going to have it as an add-on for current models and then incorporate that into the 60 GB if it ever comes out?
-Chase

[DMann]

Now, that would be a clincher ;)

[Laslo Panaflex]

A flashed based one would be nice, but it would have to be at least 1gig, preferably 2. Can you even get a 1gig flash card for $99? I don't see apple releasing a flashed based ipod for $99, unless its like all the others with a measely 256 megs.

Buy who knows, maybe apple is trying to get 100% of the portable mp3 player market, and I guess there is a market for $99 256 meg flash players.

[wrldwzrd89]

XM radio would be totally awesome. I wonder if they are going to have it as an add-on for current models and then incorporate that into the 60 GB if it ever comes out?
-Chase
I agree with you - that would be a great idea. I've never experienced XM satellite radio before.

[supergod]

$99 would be a sweet price, but would this follow the same form factor as the minis, the normals, or would it follow a new design? I personally like the mini design but don't like the current colours other than green.

[entropy1980]

Nope on the XM rumor... here is the new XM device ....
http://www.xm411.com/phpbb/viewtopic.php?t=3164

[tveric]

As far as I can tell from browsing online, the smallest XM receiver is larger than the current ipod itself. Am I missing something?

[AoWolf]

xPod? I doubt it somehow...

[CubaTBird]

how can this happen when steve went publicaly on the record and stated that most people use their "dinky" $50 flash players and then stash them in their drawerer never to be seen again..

[johnnyjibbs]

I'm not sure that a $99 price point would suit the iPod - it is a highly desirable piece of kit that has value to it. Mind you, they need to keep in the market I suppose. Of course, Apple may release a cheap flash-based iPod at MWSF '05. Steve Jobbs would go through all the motions before ending with "and all this for just $199". *Similar silence to unveiling of iPod mini at $249 price point, MWSF '04* :D

[Patmian212]

Flash iPod maybe Color ipod no way!!!

[rlw]

Also hearing about SigmaTel and flash-based iPods from non-anonmous sources...this is from Macminute:

Thomas Weisel analyst Jason Pflaum has reiterated his belief that Apple will introduce a flash-based music player before the holidays. "I recently spent two weeks in Asia meeting with a number of folks who are in a position to know details of SigmaTel's supply chain," Pflaum said. "Based on our industry contacts, we are confident that, one, Apple is planning to launch a flash-based player, and two, SigmaTel is the provider of controller chip for that device."

[ijimk]

I want to buy my sister and girlfriend both ipods but want the best deal. I am curious on the flash based how big are they planning to be? :confused:

[Steamboatwillie]

1gb USB drives retail for about $99.00 :

http://www.compusa.com/products/product_info.asp?product_code=315069&pfp=BROWSE

I would imagine that a 1gb flash based iPod is feasible. I would imagine also that the price might be somewhere in the range of $99 to $149

Pure speculation on my behalf fueled by the fact that 1gb worth of RAM (retail) on a USB device is $99 then the raw memory (bought in bulk at wholesale prices) is possibly two thirds the cost for Apple? I'm making up these numbers and have no facts to back them. Please comment if you have experience in wholesale memory pricing.

[desdomg]

If Apple cant make money on an $800 computer then they cant make money on a $99 iPod.

[AndrewMT]

This is the rumor I want to here: An iPod with over 20 hours battery life!! Hello Apple? Get with the program. Sony can do it, and the replacement batteries do it, so what's the problem?

These other features would be nice as well. I believe a simple change such as color screens and a clever interface/color scheme would increase iPod demand even further.

[Steamboatwillie]

If Apple cant make money on an $800 computer then they cant make money on a $99 iPod.

I beg to differ:

http://www.macrumors.com/pages/2004/10/20041013172731.shtml

[ClimbingTheLog]

No way will there be a flash-based iPod while prices are this high.

A 4GB flash is $250. A 2GB flash is $150. Anything smaller and you're just carrying around a few albums, and an MP3-CD unit for $39 is where you're going to find the value.

When a 4GB flash is $50 (2 years) there may be a flash-based iPod.

If there's a flash-based iPod for Christmas I'll leave the country. Oh, wait, I'm not Alec Baldwin.

[bankshot]

oh wow! ipods! i love ipods! i want a black one!!!

Here you go (http://www.colorwarepc.com/gallery/iPod/carbon.htm). :D

Seriously though, the stuff on that website looks pretty nice. If I were in the market for a new iPod, I'd definitely have to restrain myself from spending the extra bucks and getting a slightly more 'unique' color. :p

Their main iPod page is here (http://www.colorwarepc.com/content.aspx?id=30).

[Elan0204]

Personally I think a $99 flash based player is a great idea. People like cheap, and the current $249 iPod entry price is too high for a lot of people. I think a lot of people settle for crappy flash based players because they can't afford anything better. Giving people a flash based player with an interface similar to an iPod mini would show them how good Apple designed products can be, while allowing them to start shopping at the iTMS.

Besides Apple has almost completely dominated the hard drive based player market, so it's time for them to move into flash based players. If they don't make some inroads into the flash player market, those people will get sucked into Microsoft's store and there WMA files. Apple needs to work to make AAC the dominant music format.

Oh, and 512MB can still hold about 8.5 hours of AAC 128 music (which is about 11 CDs, given the length of most CDs nowadays), so it isn't really that small. It would require a little more user management, but I know I could easily deal with it, especially if the player were only $99. Although, I bet Apple would price the player at $149, if they ever release one.

[atomiton]

Flash iPod maybe Color ipod no way!!!

Flashpod yes.

Perhaps 149$, but I can't see 99$ unfortunately. I can also see a 6GB mini, and a 1-2GB Flashpod.

ipod mini is becoming the defacto player for all of people's collection of music... or a large majority of it... the flash will become the new mini... the jogger's iPod.

[applekid]

Flash iPods would go against everything Steve said. However, if Motorola's phones will have iTunes, I think you can only expect them to hold as much as flash-based MP3 player and a Flash iPod would go along with that.

I think, if this rumor means anything at all, the Flash iPod is really just a 2 GB iPod Mini with a low price of near $99 and perhaps a price drop in the iPod Mini to make them comparable with on another. You really can't make the click-wheel and iPod screen any smaller.

I say bogus to this rumor.

The U2 iPod is a possibility. I doubt it'll hold U2's complete library, but maybe several big hits and maybe some unreleased stuff. I'm not really a U2 fan, but it'd be interesting to see what could happen with other artists and iPods. Think about it: Allow the artist to design the iPod's look, add a signature or something on the back, and add some of their greatest tracks.

That elusive color iPod on the other hand...

I want to see some interesting things with iTunes. That'd be more interesting to me for now.

Of course, some new hardware and computer announcements would be nice before MWSF '05.

[rlw]

I know that Jobs said Apple was not considering a flash iPod. However, I think that Apple will introduce one. Reasons:

1-Takes the iPod into a new market. Some people will not buy a player unless it is much cheaper than the current iPods.

2-Introduces folks to the iPod brand - folks that might upgrade later (like BMW offering a cheaper car to get people hooked).

3-Great add-on product for existing iPodders. Having a 40-60GB for travel, home, etc AND a 1GB flash based for working out...that is a dream.

And...the kicker...all of the above help kill the competition.

[rlw]

Not sure if this has already been discussed. However, if there is a new flash iPod and a U2 iPod then...

...I bet the U2 iPod is flash based.

[Porchland]

Nope on the XM rumor... here is the new XM device ....
http://www.xm411.com/phpbb/viewtopic.php?t=3164

Blech! It looks... military. Apple would have done a much sexier job.

[djkny]

iPods and band--branding is the ultimate statement in tackiness. SJ, why not start your own reality show, "Pimp my 'pod?" It's brilliant for teenage girls 16 and under, but does anyone seriously want "signature" 'pods with, say, the ultimate money making tackster -- P.Diddy? Yes, let me get my hands on a gold diddy-pod with a rotating, glow in the dark click wheel rims.... Next fall -- get the madonna pod in platinum blonde....and look for the angst-ridden Morisette pod with a pill case on the side...it goes on and on ... CORNY. Let's retain the class of Apple branding alone, before it devolves into a prepubescent demographic...

[SiliconAddict]

If Apple could come out with a cheap $99 player that EVERYONE could afford they would all but lock up the market. The reality is that there are a ton of people that aren't in the market for a hard drive player and the price of even an iPod mini is overkill. If Apple doesn't do something to close this hole they will face the same problem they are facing with their computer line vs cheap PC's. Apple advocates can bitch all they want about how this wouldn't aid Apple's bottom line. We aren't talking the bottom line here. We are talking about maintaining market share of iTMS which in return aids the iPod since we are talking about a complete system here. Since Apple has made the conscious decision of saying we are going at this alone (Dude HP is just a redistributer. They aren't making their own device.) Apple has to offer a total solution for not only the high end (60GB) Medium range (20GB) but also the low range. (512MB-1GB)
The low end is a viable market where Apple CAN make money. Just not nearly as much as the hard drive iPod. Time to face reality. Either build the product or face eroding online download sales due to these cheap players. Which will over time eat at iTMS sales.

[~Shard~]

There are almost too many rumors out regarding the iPods (if that's possible!) Next Tuesday is going to be quite the event regardless now - with so many rumors, we can't lose! Now we just have to wait and see which ones will be true and which ones will be false...

[TorbX]

I dont see this coming. Not when you look at the way Steve ditched flash-based mp3-players. It has to be 1 gig AT LEAST.

These things comes for free with PC-magazines, not from Apple IMHO.

[dongmin]

iPods and band--branding is the ultimate statement in tackiness. SJ, why not start your own reality show, "Pimp my 'pod?" It's brilliant for teenage girls 16 and under, but does anyone seriously want "signature" 'pods with, say, the ultimate money making tackster -- P.Diddy? Yes, let me get my hands on a gold diddy-pod with a rotating, glow in the dark click wheel rims.... Next fall -- get the madonna pod in platinum blonde....Apple's been there already. Remember the signature-etched celebrity ipods? Madonna was one of them, as were Tony Hawk and a few others.

In case you haven't noticed, Jobs LOVES celebrities pushing his products. I don't know if it helps sell computers, but the strategy seems to have worked in the iPod universe. The iPod, in the end, is about selling 'cool' as much as anything else.

[reyesmac]

Unless Apple found a way to make them extremely cheap and they are feeling generous, I do not believe that they would debut at $99. I think they would sell for no less than $150 when they come out. Just because they can make something cheap doesn't mean they will charge less for it. When was the last time they did that. The only time their products get cheaper is when they are selling the 4th or 5th generation of the same design or when it is pro technology from 3 years ago repackaged in a more consumer product.

[MacSlut]

I could see Apple offering a 1GB or smaller flash based iPod for $99. EDIT: make that 1GB for $150 or smaller (or empty slot) for $99. The key is that the flash is removable. This would be popular for a lot of people who have flash cards for cameras. It would work really well for me as I would load up my cards with music as I went on vacation and then delete the music as I take pictures.

Plus, one could buy the iPod now, and buy bigger cards now or in the future.

I like this. Best of all for Apple, I think people would buy the flash iPods and then be inclined to buy hard drive based iPods once they get into the lifestyle of the iPod.

Face it, people are going to go to Walmart to buy their kids Christmas presents. They could disappoint the ones wanting iPods by giving them cheap flash players, or they could at least give them *an* iPod.

[smharmon]

Not sure if this has already been discussed. However, if there is a new flash iPod and a U2 iPod then...

...I bet the U2 iPod is flash based.

Sorry, don't see any correlation...

[SiliconAddict]

how can this happen when steve went publicaly on the record and stated that most people use their "dinky" $50 flash players and then stash them in their drawerer never to be seen again..

Maybe because Steve is marketing first and foremost and only thinks practical second. I know that to some this is taboo to say but Jobs is full of hot air in many respects. Not all but many. The whole RDF thing.

Dinky appeals to some. Esp those on a budget. Not everyone has $250 to spend on a mini. Consequently Apple is locking out a whole segment of users from the iPod experience. A flash player priced around $99 would allow Apple to solidify the low end market as well as the high end.

[djkny]

Apple's been there already. Remember the signature-etched celebrity ipods? Madonna was one of them, as were Tony Hawk and a few others.

In case you haven't noticed, Jobs LOVES celebrities pushing his products. I don't know if it helps sell computers, but the strategy seems to have worked in the iPod universe. The iPod, in the end, is about selling 'cool' as much as anything else.

Selling cool is fine, but Tony Hawk is cool? Madonna is cool? To clarify, it's selling cool as determined by the 14-year-old adolescent mind.

[Elan0204]

...but does anyone seriously want "signature" 'pods...Next fall -- get the madonna pod in platinum blonde...

Apple has already released a signature iPod with Madonna. It was a regular white iPod, but was laser engraved with Madonna's signature on the back. They also had models engraved with Tony Hawk's signature, Beck's signature, and No Doubt's logo. Apple also charged an extra $49 for the signature.

edit: beaten to it

[dongmin]

1gb USB drives retail for about $99.00 :

http://www.compusa.com/products/product_info.asp?product_code=315069&pfp=BROWSE

I would imagine that a 1gb flash based iPod is feasible. I would imagine also that the price might be somewhere in the range of $99 to $149I can't imagine Apple making any money on a $99 flash iPod when a 1 gb USB drive goes for $99. How do you add the battery, LCD, decoder chip, and a click wheel and make money off of a $99 player. No way in HELL this is gonna happen. If there is one thing Steve has established at Apple over the years is that he's not selling any product that they can't make money at. And Apple is also super-cautious about crowding their higher-margin products.

It's just not possible to make a well-built, well-designed player for under $100. Before the minis were announced, people were saying it had to be under $150 or they wouldn't sell. Well guess what, Apple's proved them wrong. I say NO on the $99 flash pod.

[rlw]

Sorry, don't see any correlation...

Not really a "correlation", but rather more of a marketing strategy. I think that Apple would want to put the power of the celebrity (U2) behind the new product they want to push (the flash based player).

[SiliconAddict]

I could see Apple offering a 1GB or smaller flash based iPod for $99. EDIT: make that 1GB for $150 or smaller (or empty slot) for $99. The key is that the flash is removable.

I don't see that happening. Apple is in the business of offering total solutions. Removable is a nice feature but it puts Apple into the position of allowing the user to upgrade to something like a 2GB CF card or something which could eat into iPod mini sales. As cards continue to get bigger (They now have 4GB CF cards on the market but cost an arm and a leg.) Users can "upgrade" their iPod without needing to purchase a new device. Apple's entire philosophy across almost all their product lines is to get the user to buy more from them as soon as possible. (We won't get into this philosophy when dealing with their *book line.) If they release a flash player it is going to contain a CF card or some sort but it will be built into the device.

[toughboy]

If Apple cant make money on an $800 computer then they cant make money on a $99 iPod.

:mad: so are you a TROLL or what?! :mad:

Apple makes real good money from the share of the computer market who has a taste of design and "headacheless" computing with the best OS of the market, I'm sorry if that population is limited...

Apple made and still making wonderful money on iPod, still making incredible money on iPod Mini so I'm sure they'll rock once more with whatever iPod X or xMac they'll release...

For my personal opinion, I dont see/ expect 60gb color iPods to release.. If Apple is going to release a color gadget, it should not be named iPod..

and I still think the 'iPod Micro" is the best name for the ram-based iPod... :)

[~Shard~]

Selling cool is fine, but Tony Hawk is cool? Madonna is cool? To clarify, it's selling cool as determined by the 14-year-old adolescent mind.

Why do 14-year olds alone get to determine what's cool and what's not cool? Sure, that is definitely a market segment not to ignore, but it is by no means the major segment which "calls the shots", so to speak. Apple would be foolish to adopt such a narrow focus to cater to 14-year olds alone.

[TWinbrook46636]

Remember when Apple used to make computers? Good times.

[SiliconAddict]

Apple has already released a signature iPod with Madonna. It was a regular white iPod, but was laser engraved with Madonna's signature on the back. They also had models engraved with Tony Hawk's signature, Beck's signature, and No Doubt's logo

What I would like to see is the next step in engravment. If possible.....pictures. I would love to upload a picture to Apple and have it engraved on my iPod.

[Wigletbill]

No one thought Apple could make money off of the minis either becuase the drives cost so much. They buy in bulk. Maybe they shave the profit margin to gobble up market share. I say 129.99, 1 GB.



2¢

[rlw]

If Apple could come out with a cheap $99 player that EVERYONE could afford they would all but lock up the market.

I couldn't agree more. It is now a market share game from Apple.

Apple dominates the market for HD based players. They are now in a position to use the iPod brand name to gain market share in the flash/cheaper market.

In order to maintain their position, Apple will need to stay on the offence.

[Ja Di ksw]

Remember when Apple used to make computers? Good times.

lol

I, for one, hope the U2 iPod does not come out. I don't like the thought of iPods coming out that have some unique connection to a band, even if it is just their name on the back or something small. And yes, I remember the signature iPods. Notice how much they're advertised now? Obviously it didn't go over that well. They shouldn't repeat it.

[Loge]

I think Apple should try and tap into this market at the 512MB / 1GB level. That represents a signficant segment not catered for by the Mini. A lot of existing iPod users would probably get one as an additional device. Steve's previous comments were more aimed at the 128/256 MB players, which I would not expect Apple to make.

It also fits in with a longer term aim of growing iTMS revenue as much as possible. They really don't want to lose more of that to the other music stores, which are at least starting to get more serious.

[pascalpp]

3-Great add-on product for existing iPodders. Having a 40-60GB for travel, home, etc AND a 1GB flash based for working out...that is a dream.


you are so right.

if they intro'd a 1gb flash player and 60gb ipod i'd buy one of each and give my aging 10gb ipod to a friend.

oh i hope they do.

[JohnGillilan]

Remember when Apple used to make computers? Good times.

Remember last week when Apple annoucned total Q4 revenue had increased 37% since the same quarter last year? Good times.

[~Shard~]

Remember when Apple used to make computers? Good times.

Remember when Kodak used to make film? Remember when Sony used to make transistor radios, VCRs and cassette players?

Times are a-changing. Smart companies adapt to meet the evolving marketplace, and the evolving world, for that matter. Trust me, it's a good thing. :cool:

[wrldwzrd89]

and I still think the 'iPod Micro" is the best name for the ram-based iPod... :)
Now don't you go stealing my posts, toughboy... :rolleyes: I posted that idea in a different thread first. Oh, and BTW - RAM and Flash are NOT the same thing. Apple's not planning a RAM-based iPod - instead a Flash-based iPod is what is rumored.

[dongmin]

Selling cool is fine, but Tony Hawk is cool? Madonna is cool? To clarify, it's selling cool as determined by the 14-year-old adolescent mind.Give it up dude. Arguing about what's cool is pointless. People thought the pink ipod was the 'lamest' thing ever. Guess what? It's the 2nd best selling mini.

BTW, 14-year-olds nowadays don't listen to Madonna; 14-year-olds in 1985 did. Now they're in their mid-30s and have money to buy things, like iPods and iMacs. Apple's in this business to sell things and make money. With the ipod atleast, they know what they're doing.

[~Shard~]

Now don't you go stealing my posts, toughboy... :rolleyes: I posted that idea in a different thread first. Oh, and BTW - RAM and Flash are NOT the same thing. Apple's not planning a RAM-based iPod - instead a Flash-based iPod is what is rumored.

toughboy is stealing your posts, passing them off as his own, and not even doing it correctly? Letz get 'em boss... :cool:

[dongmin]

No one thought Apple could make money off of the minis either becuase the drives cost so much. They buy in bulk. Maybe they shave the profit margin to gobble up market share. I say 129.99, 1 GB.Not exactly. Everyone (including myself) thought the minis were grossly overpriced at $250. It was A LOT higher than what they were expecting given the rumors that were floating around (2gb Cornice drives selling for $70 OEM). I suspect the 4gb HDD drives cost around $100 OEM; so Apple is adding another $150 to the cost. Unless Apple's getting an incredibly good deal on the flash media OR stripping away some key functionality, like the click wheel, there's no way Apple can make any money off of the $100 or $130 ipod.

[rendezvouscp]

The other day my friend was listening to a song on my iPod at school, and he was *upset* (not really, but in a light kind of way if you know what I mean) that Apple didn't make a "poor-people's* iPod. This flash iPod could really do the trick, and I know lots of people in their teens that would go for this iPod, because iPods are the thing to have.
–Chase

[rendezvouscp]

Not exactly. Everyone (including myself) thought the minis were grossly overpriced at $250. It was A LOT higher than what they were expecting given the rumors that were floating around (2gb Cornice drives selling for $70 OEM). I suspect the 4gb HDD drives cost around $100 OEM; so Apple is adding another $150 to the cost. Unless Apple's getting an incredibly good deal on the flash media OR stripping away some key functionality, like the click wheel, there's no way Apple can make any money off of the $100 or $130 ipod.

Seeing that the flash iPod's drive would be a lot cheaper, (let's say $50 bulk), that leaves room for $100 if they sell at $150. In that $100, they could cover the rest of their costs, and possibly make a nice profit. I wish I had some numbers that could really back myself up though. Until then, you're probably right. Apple won't do it because they don't get enough profit. But who knows?
–Chase

[Rocksaurus]

Bottom line is this: If Apple debuts a low-end flash player, it will not be 99, it probably won't be 149... 199 or 179 or around there is what's likely, I remember when everyone wanted a 149 or 199 mini... Quit dreaming

[neutrino23]

No flash pods this year. Maybe a year from now. 4GB CF cards are still several hundred dollars. On the other hand, a year from now the small HDs from Hitachi and Toshiba may be a lot cheaper and with higher capacity. If the iPod mini could go to $199 and 8 GB why bother with a $150 4GB flash pod?

Amazon has a Lexar 4GB flash for $449. Not the cheapest but its a snapshot.

Elsewhere someone pointed out that it is unlikely that Apple would preload an iPod with music as they do not give you a legal way to backup your music from the iPod. More likely they would give you a coupon to download the U2 music from iTMS. This has the added benefit of bringing more people to iTMS. Why preload the music and help the customer not visit iTMS?

[Rocketman]

A flashed based one would be nice, but it would have to be at least 1gig, preferably 2. Can you even get a 1gig flash card for $99? I don't see apple releasing a flashed based ipod for $99, unless its like all the others with a measely 256 megs.

Buy who knows, maybe apple is trying to get 100% of the portable mp3 player market, and I guess there is a market for $99 256 meg flash players.

Couldn't that be resolved with say, two SD card slots?

[~Shard~]

Bottom line is this: If Apple debuts a low-end flash player, it will not be 99, it probably won't be 149... 199 or 179 or around there is what's likely, I remember when everyone wanted a 149 or 199 mini... Quit dreaming

Very true - even though Apple might be able to do it for really cheap they'll refrain from that approach and sell it for more. Not that there's anything wrong with this of course - look what they did with the iPod mini, which everyone says was overpriced, however they were sold out for the longest time and you couldn't even get one! Apple seems to know what they're doing when it comes to Marketing, price points, and all that, so I'm sure whatever they do will be very successful for them.

Next Tuesday all will be revealed - and just in time for Christmas, how convenient!

[rdowns]

Nope on the XM rumor... here is the new XM device ....
http://www.xm411.com/phpbb/viewtopic.php?t=3164

This seems to agree.

From yahoo:

A spokesman for Washington, D.C.-based XM declined to comment beyond saying a major product announcement was planned for Oct. 26 in New York with automotive parts and consumer electronics products maker, Delphi Corp. (DPH.N: Quote, Profile, Research)

"XMSR is also likely to announce its wearable device next week. There is a good shot this 'Walkman' type device, in the near term, will differentiate XM's hardware from Sirius," a rival satellite radio system, said Kit Spring, analyst with Stifel, Nicolaus in a note for investors.

He said such a device would "also get investors thinking about future combinations of IPOD/TIVO-like satellite radios, which would increase the value of the monthly subscription."

Would be nice if Apple were getting into bed with them but I dount it.

[Rocketman]

If Apple could come out with a cheap $99 player that EVERYONE could afford they would all but lock up the market. The reality is that there are a ton of people that aren't in the market for a hard drive player and the price of even an iPod mini is overkill. If Apple doesn't do something to close this hole they will face the same problem they are facing with their computer line vs cheap PC's.


1. Let's say I agree with your premise.
2. Let's say Apple agrees with your premise.

I say this.

Apple has never had a single major product success that resulted in their being able to keep up with demand. Call it "bleeding edge syndrome"

This is a problem.

All I can say is if ANY product is somehow more produceable on surge demand, Apple should give it a shot. What if they hit the lottery? Like iPod.

. . . . Now for a produceable Cube that EVERYONE wants NOW!

Rocketman

[sunseeker]

I think a US$99 ipod is absolutely possible.
I work in retail here in australia and our store orders 1Gb sd cards in lots of 1000 for just over AU$100. Apple could likely get these cards for 1/3 of this if they order enough. The rest of the parts are cheap in bulk also. They could probably sell this for $99 and make $50 on each one, but I think $149ish more likely.
At this price I would buy one for each of my 3 daughters for Xmas without hesitation.

They have already taken control of the hard drive market. If they can take control of the cheaper players and turn a profit while releasing itms across the rest of the world they will have it all sewn up;-)

[nagromme]

$99? Not this year!

2GB is 500 songs, and I don't see Apple going lower than that. A flash-based Mini sounds likely sometime, but $199 sounds like the price I'd expect. Maybe $149. (And the $249 model would remain--but get a GB increase at some point.) And how about new colors?

Apple doesn't need to undercut prices--they have the highest demand and best ease-of-use. And "dumping" iPods to kill competitors wouldn't really work against big foes like Sony--and would be bad strategy since Apple's ALREADY doing great in this field. Dumping iPods would mean raising prices later and all that bad press... and competitors waiting to move back in anyway.

XM? Doubtful, sounds like grasping at straws. Would be cool, I guess.

Photo iPod? Please! :)

[rendezvouscp]

Couldn't that be resolved with say, two SD card slots?

That's a good option, kinda like what Lacie did for their huge drives.
–Chase

[JeffTL]

If it's not at least a gig or two a flash iPod would certainly be brand degrading -- not what you want. And by the time you are looking at that much flash, is it really going to be advantageous over the mini?

There's also the issue of cannibalism -- if you want an MP3 player you can get one dirt cheap though the interface will be lousy, but if you want an AAC player that supports FairPlay, you have one way to go and the iPod is it.

Personally I wouldn't get one -- to me, my iPod is as much a hard drive as an audio player, especially as I didn't get the CD-RW on my iBook...and I have 2 gigs of legal music, given my 320k fetish. But for someone who doesn't want to carry the whole enchilada (or doesn't have much music, or jogs a lot) a flash iPod might be useful.

Trick would be to spec and price it such that it doesn't overly cannibalize magnetic-storage iPod sales, particularly the mini. The goal of such a product, from Apple's perspective, would basically be to expand into a different market, though probably not as low as the $50 price point.

Also there's the issue of having too many models; currently, there are 3 iPods and it's pretty easy to pick one out. The basic model is the 20 gigabyte -- for a bit more money you can double that if you want a bigger hard drivve, say if you use Apple Lossless or are backing up your whole computer to the 'pod.

[The Red Wolf]

All the rumors hold about as much water as the title of this post. "LaCie providing the dual striped 500 GB HD array in Apple's new stylish 5"X10"X2" iPod Extreme! Dual scroll wheels allow for two finger DJaying with hardware based variable speed. The shortened nVidia 6800 Ultra offers expansion for twin 30" displays available this November. Did we mention the decoder is a G5 running at 1.6 GHz? Utilizing the same battery in the 17" PowerBook it gets an amazing 3.5 hours of battery life on one charge! (AC powerbrick available which doubles as an AirPort Express) 3rd part port for adding a Firewire 800 superdrive! USB 2.0, you betcha! IT'S AIRPORT EXTEME! Get one now NOW NOW! Only $800. Face it its cooler than a Dell!"

When does it end people? The iPod is a good addition to Apple's finesse, but it is not the soul of the company. I stand by my statement of an iPod should remain an iPod. Unless Apple wants to design a tablet, leave the iPod alone.

[BornAgainMac]

It doesn't matter if the flashplayer has only 256 MB of memory. As long as their a free slot, then I have extra memory from my digital camera that I can use to increase it without any additional cost. That is the secret of flashbased players.

[jettredmont]

I could see Apple offering a 1GB or smaller flash based iPod for $99. EDIT: make that 1GB for $150 or smaller (or empty slot) for $99. The key is that the flash is removable. This would be popular for a lot of people who have flash cards for cameras. It would work really well for me as I would load up my cards with music as I went on vacation and then delete the music as I take pictures.

Plus, one could buy the iPod now, and buy bigger cards now or in the future.


No. I absolutely can not see Apple augmenting their sleek, seamless iPod brand line with a flash-based player with a gaping max waiting for an "expansion card" and all the attendant seams and space-wasting controls that go with it.

The various "add your own Flash!" players are the exact antithesis to the iPod design; I can't see Apple denegrating their brand with one of those.

As for re-using your RAM cards ... again, a very un-Apple idea. Don't see it happening any time soon, definitely not with an "iPod" name attached.

Face it, people are going to go to Walmart to buy their kids Christmas presents. They could disappoint the ones wanting iPods by giving them cheap flash players, or they could at least give them *an* iPod.

The exact problem: you can satisfy "demand" for the brand by giving cheap baubles away which define the brand name down, or you can keep the brand consistently just out of reach of Joe Sixpack. I don't see Apple going to either extreme; they are much more adept at walking the high-profit line between the two than in completely pandering to the Walmart or Macy's crowds.

iPod is a brand as well as a device. Devices can be designed and sold and fill great niches, and do so in a fairly predictable manner. Brands are like lightening in a bottle; you can't engineer a good brand, you can only keep doing your best until one day lightening strikes and you've got a brand which reflects your efforts. Apple is fully aware of that. When you have a brand name as a serious portion of your value, you can't just blindly steer towards whatever will get you the most sales for the greatest profit for the next quarter; flooding the market with cheap iPods which don't satisfy the user and ultimately leave Joe Sixpack thinking, "What was all the fuss about? This thing sucks!" may make a load of cash this holiday, but would do irreperable harm to the iPod image and brand.

My prediction: flash iPods are not out of the question, but they certainly won't be sold as "cheap" players, and they certainly won't look like any of the existing Flash players on the market just as the iPod doesn't resemble any of the cheap flash players. Apple won't sell them unless they offer an end user experience on par with Apple's higher-end offerings, and the expectation the consumer has of the iPod brand itself.

What would be the selling angle?

Smaller than the iPod mini? Perhaps. But there's only so much shrinking you can do to the iPod UI model before it becomes something other than an iPod. I don't see a three-line screen with a rocker-buttong "forward/reverse" control, for instance.

Cheaper than the iPod mini? Most likely, but not by much. Maybe $149. I doubt any less.

More shock-resistant than the iPod Mini? I suppose so, but then again I haven't heard any shock problems with the Mini either. THe 1" drives are quite shock-resistant in and of themselves.

I don't know. Apple might surprise me, but I just don't see a huge likelihood of this happening.

[sworthy]

Some people are starting to get it right...

This isn't (or at least shouldn't) happen. Does anyone realize that Apple sold over 2 million iPods last quarter alone? Predictions for the holiday quarter are even higher at 3 million. Apple's margins are good, but if anything analysts feel that they are a little low.

Why on earth would Apple make this move now and make less money than they are currently on the biggest cash cow since the walkman? I say introduce the player in another year or two (but only when we see a change in the demand for the hard drive iPods) which is when they'll need some differentiation besides cavernous hard drive space.

[VicMacs]

im tired of waiting

ill get an ipod on oct 27 u2 or no u2... and i jut got an ibook to last me till the pbg5 comes to town...

if you dont jump now you might step back!

[jettredmont]

Not really a "correlation", but rather more of a marketing strategy. I think that Apple would want to put the power of the celebrity (U2) behind the new product they want to push (the flash based player).

Why would Apple want to "push" their rumored bottom-of-the-line player? You never need to "push" the bottom of the line. The more of those sold, the lower your brand worth goes, the lower your profit margins go, etc. You "push" top-of-the-line; price is already an effective force pushing consumers to the bottom of the line!

[Poff]

People seem to be too sure in their opinions in here about what kind of player other people would buy.

I would really like a 20gig iPod, but I honestly cannot justify the price. It's not that I couldn't get the money, but I have other priorities.

I would really like a 4gig iPod mini, but at $250 it's still too expensive. Again, it's not that I couldn't afford it, I just have other priorities.

If Apple released a 1gig iPod Flash at $149 and a 512MB iPod flash at $99, I'd almost definitely order the 512MB version at once. And it seems to me many of the others in here are of the same opinion.

The prices are, however, more likely to be $199 and $149, in which case I'm not sure if I would get one.


Frankly, I do not need all that space. I'd use it on my way to school, in the gym, and whenever I'd have the time. But I'd normally get to change the song-content every day - so why would I need 20gigs?

And high-school studens who are low on cash would finally be able to afford their own iPod - I sense a big market here. Being cool is cheaper than ever before! :)


If they are priced to high, they won't be able to compete the lower-end flash-market. (the iPod mini is aimed at the higher-end flash-market - so why would they need another device aiming for the same market?) This is why I'm thinking a 512MB $99 AAC and FairPlay compatible device is not out of the question. 125songs is enough for me! :)

[headhighguy]

It seems all highly unlikely to me... Think more conservative! Apple has recently shown a more conservative approach when adopting new technologies and releasing new products. iPod is a Music Player, period. At least for as long as what they sell on iTunes is music... Photos, Satellite Radio, Color Display, 60GB ... all just pure speculation. There is no business reason that would match apple's strategy behind it.

I think the flash player had potential, but I don't think Apple releases an even smaller ipod as the mini. Flash is certainly the media of the future, but the prices are way too high for it right now.

[AidenShaw]

I dont see this coming. Not when you look at the way Steve ditched flash-based mp3-players. It has to be 1 gig AT LEAST.

Right, just like when, during the intro of the makeup-mirror iMac, Steve dissed the idea of making the computer part of the flat panel display. A horrible idea, Apple would never do it....

[Loge]

The strategy behind the smaller flash based player does not really stack up if you just look at the players in isolation. It makes sense in terms of increasing revenue (and defending market share) of the music store. Online music purchasing is becoming more significant and Apple need to look at innovative ways of getting that revenue from those who are not necessarily getting an iPod; the Motorola deal is an example of this. If they are worried about the iPod brand, well they can think of a different name.

They may not do it on Tuesday. But I think they will do it soon.

[veedubdrew]

That's the XM Roady 2 and it's been out for a while. It needs a power source and is intended to go from car to home stereo and back. You can see all of its details on Delphi's website.

If they have an XM adapter for the iPod or an XM-capable iPod, I'll probably wet myself. I have my iPod directly connected to my car (iPod your BM...er...Prius?) and if the XM could be used on that connection it would save me from tearing down (http://homepage.mac.com/mtndrew1/PhotoAlbum36.html) my car again to install yet another gadget. I don't know how they'd get an XM antenna on the iPod though. Can't wait for Tuesday!

-Drew

Nope on the XM rumor... here is the new XM device ....
http://www.xm411.com/phpbb/viewtopic.php?t=3164

EDIT: Whoops, looks like I'm stupid. I didn't see the Roady 2 ENCASED in something! Looks like a cool XM gadget.

[Lepton]

My prediction is the same front as the iPod Mini, same size, except less than 0.25" thick. Same click wheel same screen, white plastic front, stainless rear. Like a stack of 3 credit cards!

A little built in flash, 128MB. Really, I'm just adding that to account for the rumors of flash chip purchases. I could see one with NO built in flash.

Two, 3, or 4 slots for small, standard memory cards. Let's say two. The key here is the unit can be cheap because it has no flash in it, yet you can say it has a max capacity of 4GB, 8GB, or whatever the max capacity of the cards can be.

Apple won't make cards. But it comes with a low capacity memory card holding some U2 music. Alternately it comes with a CD you can rip with your computer. This has some merit as it makes them install and use iTunes. Also it solves the problem of a preloaded iPod.

$129.99 half the price of the mini.

Color iPod: 60MB, OLED display. $499.99.

[SiliconAddict]

If it's not at least a gig or two a flash iPod would certainly be brand degrading -- not what you want.

Why? What is it with people and thinking that less storage == Inferior product?!?? Maybe if Apple was stupid enough not to drop the price accordingly, but a cheaper smaller iPod is simply low end on the product line. Its like saying the Mini isn't as good as a 40GB iPod because it only holds x songs. There is NOTHING inferior about a flash based 512MB-1GB iPod that is as small as say a roll of scotch tape.


PS- I just did a search on shopper.com Cheapest 1GB CF is 74 bucks. In bulk Apple could beat that.

[corywoolf]

Flash iPods would go against everything Steve said. However, if Motorola's phones will have iTunes, I think you can only expect them to hold as much as flash-based MP3 player and a Flash iPod would go along with that.

I think, if this rumor means anything at all, the Flash iPod is really just a 2 GB iPod Mini with a low price of near $99 and perhaps a price drop in the iPod Mini to make them comparable with on another. You really can't make the click-wheel and iPod screen any smaller.

I say bogus to this rumor.

The U2 iPod is a possibility. I doubt it'll hold U2's complete library, but maybe several big hits and maybe some unreleased stuff. I'm not really a U2 fan, but it'd be interesting to see what could happen with other artists and iPods. Think about it: Allow the artist to design the iPod's look, add a signature or something on the back, and add some of their greatest tracks.

That elusive color iPod on the other hand...

I want to see some interesting things with iTunes. That'd be more interesting to me for now.

Of course, some new hardware and computer announcements would be nice before MWSF '05.


i agree, i think the flash player is just motorola's new cell phone the razor. it has been on motorola's site for a while as coming soon, its about time for it to be released here. the 26th would make sense for it. so lets see.


we got:

-U2 plays a song or 2
-U2 and steve announce the new 60 gb color ipod
-U2 announces apple is sponsering its tour
-U2 announces that a U2 special edition ipod is due at the release of their album
-motorola announces its itunes cell phone (razor)
-updated software for ilife to be compatible with the new ipods
-U2 closes the show and the audience gets some goodies



thats about all i can think of...

:cool:

[~Shard~]

Apple has recently shown a more conservative approach when adopting new technologies and releasing new products.

WOuld you call the iPod a conservative approach when it was released a few years ago? How about iTMS? Conservative isn't the word I would use....

iPod is a Music Player, period.

Who ever said the iPod was just a music player? Think outside the box, man, the iPod is going to evolve...

There is no business reason that would match apple's strategy behind it.

See my above examples of the iPod and iTMS and think about what you just said. :cool:

[TWinbrook46636]

Remember last week when Apple annoucned total Q4 revenue had increased 37% since the same quarter last year? Good times.

Times are a-changing. Smart companies adapt to meet the evolving marketplace, and the evolving world, for that matter. Trust me, it's a good thing. :cool:


Yes, I realize Apple's overall revenue increased 37% and that's great but do you realize 43% of hardware revenue was from the iPod? It was an easy 43% too and that's what worries me. Producing an iPod is much cheaper and easier than a PowerBook or a PowerMac. They have already separated the hardware divisions into Macintosh vs iPod. They may feel they can take the easy route with the iPod while letting the Macintosh division languish. Why put the time, money and effort into PowerBooks, PowerMacs and iBooks when they can just crank out iPods? Personally I think we are starting to see signs of this. Where does this leave Mac users? This would most certainly not be a good thing.

[SBCMac]

Not sure why nobody else caught this. During the Q4 Financial results, one of the callers asked about Flash based iPods.
The Apple guy replied. "I think there's a variety of opportunities in the iPod space, but I just can't comment on what we may do in the future."

So , I don't think it's totally out of the question that Apple may have this in mind. Otherwise, wouldn't he just outrigth deny that Apple would ever make one?

Go to http://www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/earningsq404/

Flash based iPod mentioned
start: 52: 00
end: 52:29

[fpnc]

I would very much like to see a well-under $200, flash-memory-based iPod. However, I think there is just about ZERO chance of that happening before Christmas of this year.

Currently, I doubt whether Apple would introduce anything that would undercut the price of the iPod Mini (or risk taking the spotlight off of the Mini or standard iPod). They don't need to, since Steve Jobs has already warned that there may be a shortage of iPods for the remainder of the year. If the iPod Mini is already selling faster than they can make them why would they bother to introduce a new product at a lower cost?

Yes, I realize that there is a market for a $100 to $200 device that would work with iTunes. But, right now Apple probably doesn't want to compete at that price point, at least not against the pre-Christmas sales potential of the iPod Mini. And anyway, flash memory is still a bit too expensive to produce a device that could compare to the Mini (even at a much lower song capacity).

I'm fairly certain that we will eventually see a flash-memory-based iPod. But I expect this will happen only after demand for the current iPods slows. Then perhaps we'll see something when Apple can make decent (for Apple) profit margins on a $100 to $200, flash-memory-based player that provides an "iPod-like" experience. My guess, maybe in another year.

[AidenShaw]

If the iPod Mini is already selling faster than they can make them why would they bother to introduce a new product at a lower cost?

This is a bit of an oxymoron - they can't sell (deliver) them faster than they can make them. A backorder isn't profit.

On the other hand, if they could sell minis as fast as they can make them, *and* sell 1 or 2 GB flashPods as well - cha-ching!
____

Apple, it used to be a computer company - now it makes lifestyle devices.

[Porchland]

It doesn't matter if the flashplayer has only 256 MB of memory. As long as their a free slot, then I have extra memory from my digital camera that I can use to increase it without any additional cost. That is the secret of flashbased players.

And the problem with an Apple flash-based player. Switching out tiny flash cards just doesn't seem to fit into the Apple ethos.

[cheekyspanky]

i agree, i think the flash player is just motorola's new cell phone the razor. it has been on motorola's site for a while as coming soon, its about time for it to be released here. the 26th would make sense for it. so lets see.

-motorola announces its itunes cell phone (razor)

:cool:

I've got myself one of the Motorola V3 RAZR's and it only has 5.5mb of memory onboard and no expansion, so the iTunes compatable phone will likely still be a while yet!

As for the flash iPod, I think it will have to be at least 1GB as this size sounds large to the general consumer - maybe even badged as 1000mb just to emphasise its size compared to rivals. As for the price point, with Apple I think its always best to assume the price you would want to pay, then add 50% and thats what it ends up costing!

I think £129 for a 1GB iPod Micro, which would follow the £179 iPod mini and the £219 iPod 20GB

[SiliconAddict]

iPod is a Music Player,

Yes. For now. If it permanently stays that way Apple will lose this market. Period. In 5 years if Apple keeps the same design, same feature set, same everything they will be back into the 2% market share they are in with their PC line. Convergence is the word of the decade. A dedicated music player is cool right now because it’s not practical to add these other features right now. Look at Creative’s MS Media Center device. Holy crap is that thing a brick.

Like it or not you WILL see a photo iPod and eventually a video iPod. It’s inevitable and if you don’t like that you better get ready for a serious disappointment.

[~Shard~]

It was an easy 43% too and that's what worries me. Producing an iPod is much cheaper and easier than a PowerBook or a PowerMac.

If you spend any time in the business world you will realize there is no such thing as "easy money" when it comes down to it. Apple busted their butts working on and evolving the iPod, and the fact that is has become such a hit and has become such an icon has put more pressure on Apple if anything to work harder to make the iPod revisions great in order to maintain its advantage. Easy to produce? Only in physical assembly time I'm afraid.

They may feel they can take the easy route with the iPod while letting the Macintosh division languish. Why put the time, money and effort into PowerBooks, PowerMacs and iBooks when they can just crank out iPods? Personally I think we are starting to see signs of this.

See my above comment. It is not as simple as "just cranking out iPods".

The thing you don't seem to realize is what the very nature of Apple is - innovation. Sure, other companies might take the "easy" way out and rest on their laurels, but not Apple. Apple is all about constant striving to be leaders, to innovate and to stay on the leading edge. If you see signs of Apple neglecting all things non-iPod, then perhaps you should look at the latest iBook revisions, the updated Pro tools (FCP HD, Motion, etc.) as of late, Airport Express, the new PowerMacs, the new displays (most notably the 30" monster!), and the G5 iMac - what a marvel of engineering that machine is. Oh and you might as well throw Tiger in there as well.

Is Apple focusing solely on the iPod and neglecting their other lines? Not in the least. They are simply capitalizing on their own genius with respect to the iPod and iTMS and trying to maximize their profits, as any well-run business should do. But as I said above, this requires a lot of hard work, it doesn't come "easy" as you say, and Apple is not foolish enough to neglect every other product line just for the iPod.

As you said yourself:

They have already separated the hardware divisions into Macintosh vs iPod.

Exactly. This was done so that each area could have an equal amount of focus, and one aspect (i.e. the iPod) did not overwhelm hardware development. With 2 distinct departments, Apple can keep its development, projects, product lines and goals separate. Makes sense to me. :cool:

[SiliconAddict]

Yes, I realize Apple's overall revenue increased 37% and that's great but do you realize 43% of hardware revenue was from the iPod? It was an easy 43% too and that's what worries me. Producing an iPod is much cheaper and easier than a PowerBook or a PowerMac. They have already separated the hardware divisions into Macintosh vs iPod. They may feel they can take the easy route with the iPod while letting the Macintosh division languish. Why put the time, money and effort into PowerBooks, PowerMacs and iBooks when they can just crank out iPods? Personally I think we are starting to see signs of this. Where does this leave Mac users? This would most certainly not be a good thing.

I don't agree. I personally think iPods were introduced as a fallback in case Mac sales totally tanked. As long as Apple has something to rely on other then their computer market we don't have to worry about them going anywhere. No company should ever trust their entire future to one product or in Apple's case one thin product line. iPod and who knows what else down the road will not only keep them profitable but able to continue to cater to the 2% market share Apple owns.

[~Shard~]

iPod is a Music Player, period.

One more comment, and to slightly echo SilconAddict's statement, no the iPod is not "a Music Player, period" - you are simply incorrect.

Even now you can store notes on your iPod, check your contacts, your calendar, and guess what - you can even store digital photos on your iPod, or whatever else you may want - it's a portable FireWire hard drive. Just a Music Player? Completely wrong. If the iPod remains "just a music player" it will die a quick death in the upcoming years. It needs to constantly develop and evolve as a media device, (or call it what you want), and Apple is just the type of innovative company to ensure that is exactly what will happen. :cool:

[ASP272]

If Apple cant make money on an $800 computer then they cant make money on a $99 iPod.

If Apple put out a 1GB Flash based iPod, I don't think the idea would be to make money. Well, at least not like what they make on the big ones. They would more likely just be trying to get the total market share.

[SiliconAddict]

The thing you don't seem to realize is what the very nature of Apple is - innovation. Sure, other companies might take the "easy" way out and rest on their laurels, but not Apple. Apple is all about constant striving to be leaders, to innovate and to stay on the leading edge. If you see signs of Apple neglecting all things non-iPod, then perhaps you should look at the latest iBook revisions, the updated Pro tools (FCP HD, Motion, etc.) as of late, Airport Express, the new PowerMacs, the new displays (most notably the 30" monster!), and the G5 iMac - what a marvel of engineering that machine is. Oh and you might as well throw Tiger in there as well.

Shard no offense man but Apple is as far away from hardware innovation as MS is from software innovation. The iPod, PowerBooks, PowerMac, iBook have nothing overly revolutionary in them. The G5? Designed by IBM. The ibook? *shrugs* standard LCD, standard hard drive, RAM, GPU, etc, etc. Ditto with the PowerBooks. 17" PowerBooks that is 1" thin is cool and all but Apple simply took the display from iMac and shoved it into the PowerBook and squeezed the crap out of the components to get it into a 1" thick case. (Consequently this is part of why people complain of the head on those suckers. No enough vents, fans, etc.

Apple's innovation comes in taking ordinary over the counter parts (with exceptions such as the G5.) and dumping them into innovative designed enclosures. Have you ever looked at the compoents of an iPod? Nothing new in there. CPU, RAM, hard drive, controller chips, battery, LCD, etc. No its the way they put it together and the way they created the complete package that is innovative.

In fact there are only a handful of real innovative devices Apple has ever put out. The Pizmo with its ingenious ability to be upgraded. The Newton. The Apple digital camera that was WELL ahead of its time. That is true hardware innovation.

[appleface]

rumor specs:

mini
same 4gb, same $249, slimmer, flash-based, two new colors, twice the battery life

bigi
60gb, no color screen, $499 (add every U2 album including their new release and get the black color for $599)

[puckhead193]

how can this happen when steve went publicaly on the record and stated that most people use their "dinky" $50 flash players and then stash them in their drawerer never to be seen again..

So true i bought a 128MB 3 years ago and i used it for a month and has been sitting in the draw ever since.....

I don't understand why they want it black, u can get that done online......

An XM portible player would be nice..if only i could get installed in my car.... :rolleyes:

[appleface]

no way apple will release an ipod smaller than 4gb

[joeboy_45101]

I don't like the idea of a flash based iPod, at least with current capacity/price ratios. Let's say that Apple has designed a 1GB Flash iPod SuperMini, that's only going to hold about 250 songs not that much really. 1000 songs is the sweet spot for many people. I believe that a 5GB iPod Mini would, at the current price of $249, be a great product.

[appleface]

i don't think apple is against flash players. i think jobs is opposed to making an ipod with 256mb of storage.

4gb cf cards are affordable now. they are less expensive than microdrives. i'm trying to think of an advantage to using the hardrives that is currently in the minis as opposed to switching them to flash. i can't think of an advantage. can anyone else think of one?

[Demon]

i'd love to see a cheaper iPod, Apple is more likely to make their flash based iPod more expensive than the counterparts. So $99 with 1GB would be unlike Apple that i've love to see it. I'll even buy it just to support them! haha.

Need to get a new iPod soon, my 15GB is full. But i don't really like the click wheel, love the 3G buttons much more. But seems like no one agrees... sigh.

[jesuscandle]

Remember when Apple used to make computers? Good times.

So...Apple released 2 updated computer lines and a significant server peripheral on Tuesday. What more do you want?

[smharmon]

Convergance devices with hard drives will be out this year (the Zaurus has one already). We will seem them first in PDAs, and then phones. Think of a Dell Axim with VGA screen, WiFi, Bluetooth, and a 20gb HD. Now of a Treo 650 type phone with a HD. That exists now, minus the hard drive, we aren't talking about leaps and bounds, we are just talking about adding a HD to current feature sets. I understand it may not sync with iTunes, but with that type of feature set, and that kind of screen, customers would look at their options, and it would cost less than or as much as a high end ipod... people would walk away from Apple if they can't offer a similiar product. I use a Treo 600, and wouldn't touch my ipod if it had a 20gb drive. And please don't mention the classic "battery life! What about battery life?!" As you should know that Apple's batteries are poor in capacity for the money...and a PDA or phone, even my Treo for instance could power the drive longer than the current ipod battery.

Oh, and for those of you that scream "All, I want is a music player, nothing else!" then that is fine, hold on to your ipod till the end, cause if Apple's doesn't adapt and compete, then you can go down together. I believe the ipod is the best out there, but that will change... and adding pictures and wireless isn't going to help against devices that can do so much more...

If you want to spend $300 on a phone, $300 for a PDA, and $350 for an ipod, sure go ahead.

Convergance is the future, lets pray for Apple to make it there quickly. Jobs says that he won't make a phone... hope he changes his mind.

[dornoforpyros]

Wasn't the whole point of iPods the fact that they WEREN'T 256 flash based players? I mean I remember when MP3 players first came out and I was looking at them I was like "Yeah Um 10 songs aint worth my time" so I dunno why apple would move into that market.

[bommai]

A flashed based one would be nice, but it would have to be at least 1gig, preferably 2. Can you even get a 1gig flash card for $99? I don't see apple releasing a flashed based ipod for $99, unless its like all the others with a measely 256 megs.

Buy who knows, maybe apple is trying to get 100% of the portable mp3 player market, and I guess there is a market for $99 256 meg flash players.

I just bought a 1 GB CF card for $72. 2GB are about $130. In bulk, I am sure Apple can manage a lot lower price. I don't see why you cannot have a $99 1GB flash player. However, if Apple want's to even go that low is the question!

-Siva

[Blue Velvet]

...so I dunno why apple would move into that market.

To 'lock' them into iTMS, and give consumers an exposure to Apple including a mapped-out upgrade path upwards to an iPod...

The Minis are still too expensive for most kids & casual presents.

See it as a loss-leader -- brings people on board & generates more 'halo'

[mainemike]

Also in the rumor mill are rumblings of a black special-edition U2 iPod (http://www.macrumors.com/pages/2004/10/20041018211323.shtml), to be pre-loaded with at least the next U2 major album release, if not more of their catalog of songs (possibly all of their previous releases).

I can't imagine the "U2 Pod" will come with ALL of U2's releases installed.
Seems they'd want to steer the hype towards their latest release on Nov. 23rd, "How To Dismantle An Atomic Bomb".

And if it inspires people to buy the rest of their catalog, well....that's gravy.

PS - anybody who has listened to U2 since the early days remembers what it was like to live in a world without Macintosh. Most of us can't agree on U2's best album, but most of us have it narrowed down to the pre-Achtung Baby period. Here's hoping that the latest work kicks ass. I know I'll be listening.

[Brother Michael]

I could get 100-150 dollars to buy a flash-based iPod. I can't afford the others, but I can get a flash based one.

Mike

[Avicdar]

The whole flash rumor just doesn't make sense, regardless of how many 'reliable' sources quote it.

Apple has traditionally not produced *anything* unless they can make good margin on it. During their recent quarterly earnings announcement, they reiterated that they wanted to stay on an average margin in retail in the 27-28% range. I seriously doubt that Apple is going to release a product that not only dilutes their margins and increases load on their supply chain, but also puts them in competition with themselves.

You can argue strongly (as many here have) that selling a cheap flash based iPod will convince flash based iPod buyers to upgrade to "real" iPods eventually. This strategy can backfire easily. A cheap, low quality iPod won't impress anyone and won't instill confidence in Apple products.

I've always thought of Apple as a prime engineering company. They build really nice stuff, nice to hold, nice to look at, nice to use. Can Apple really make a flash based iPod that fits that description, gets them the margins they need, and not kill off sales of other iPod lines?

I think Apple is fairly content to remain the *premium* music player manufacturer, with the lions share of the market already in hand. Truly they cannot rest and do nothing, but I can't see their direction moving into the "me too" flash based players.

As others have said here, Steve already poo-pooed the flash players repeatedly and in a big way.

If I am wrong and Apple does decide to give this sort of device a try, I can guarantee you that it will be more expensive that the rumors indicate.

[Jovian9]

I think there is definitely a market for a flash based player from Apple....especially if they could go $149 or less.
My nephews (2) both are now the proud owners of broken discmans. They want new ones but to get a decent one they are $50 each. And they still have to carry around multiple cd's. They are only 9yrs & 7yrs old so they really do not know how to take care of such things right now. Smaller flash based iPods would definitely be great for these guys and they would not have to carry around bulky discmans and scratch up their cd's. With Christmas around the corner they would almost definitely be getting these if they were to be released.

[purell16]

I like everyone else would love to see apple release a new iPod. But seriously guys, dont most of you already have one? I just bought an iPod mini 5 months ago, and just because a *brand new* iPod comes out, doesnt mean im gonna go buy it. In my opinion, i think Apple should start focusing more on accessories for the iPod, instead of different and new iPods. I love my iPod mini, and would buy tons of accessories...if there were some actually useful and cool ones out there.

[Schroedinger]

ok, let's review here. Apple introduces the original 5 GB ipod. People think it is a joke, nobody will want one of these. Turns into a revolution.

Apple introduces an iPod mini. it's too small and too expensive, it'll never work. Apple can't build them fast enough.

Flash based iPod? NOOOOO!! They will dilute their market share and people won't think I'm cool anymore b/c I dropped 5 bills on my ipod. Besides, nobody wants one of these...

That issue notwithstanding, let me offer the suggestion that those of us who are big enough geeks to float around on a mac rumors website would not be the target audience for such a product.

A cheap flash based ipod would be aimed at:

1. Those unable to spend $250 on a mini - Apple suddenly makes profit off a segment of the market they were unable to engage before.

2. Those unwilling to spend $250 on a mini b/c:
a. They don't see value in a mini - Again, apple makes a profit off a segment of the market previously not engaged.
b. They don't understand this whole mp3 craze - Apple gets to introduce the product line and lifestyle to a new segment of the market

3. Those with the desire for a very small mp3 player, under a gig, who don't need massive storage b/c:
a. They already have an iPod - no lost ipod sales here
b. The lifestyle they lead lends itself to a small player b/c they:
i. Would only use it when exercising
ii. Don't have much time they would us it, e.g. they have a short commute - again, people that weren't buying even a mini before

4. Geeks who float around on Mac rumor forums, love apple products like a fat kid loves cake and
a. Have money to burn
b. Don't have money to burn but buy the stuff anyway

If you're curious, I would fall into categories 4b.

[web_god61]

Remember when Apple used to make computers? Good times.

So...Apple released 2 updated computer lines and a significant server peripheral on Tuesday. What more do you want?

I would hardly call the iBooks upgraded, the only plus I see is built in AE. I'm just pissed that apple is retarding an entire line of notbooks because they'll be "too powerefull". I'm wating for the ipod mini inspired 12" ibooks with 1 ghz G5 and radeon X600 Mobility 64 MB. The powerbooks could have 1.4-1.8 ghz G5's and Radeon X900's. Theres a nice gap between them and there both massive upgrades from the G4. 1ghz G5 shouldn't be to hot.

I'm not even gonna touch all this iPod crazyness.

last thing bout the flash ipods, if they only got 128-256 MB that "revolutionary scrool wheel" would be kind useless wouldnt it....? scrolling throught all 20 of your songs. probly have 4 buttons + volume i would guess.

[~Shard~]

Shard no offense man but Apple is as far away from hardware innovation as MS is from software innovation. The iPod, PowerBooks, PowerMac, iBook have nothing overly revolutionary in them. The G5? Designed by IBM. The ibook? *shrugs* standard LCD, standard hard drive, RAM, GPU, etc, etc. Ditto with the PowerBooks. 17" PowerBooks that is 1" thin is cool and all but Apple simply took the display from iMac and shoved it into the PowerBook and squeezed the crap out of the components to get it into a 1" thick case. (Consequently this is part of why people complain of the head on those suckers. No enough vents, fans, etc.

Apple's innovation comes in taking ordinary over the counter parts (with exceptions such as the G5.) and dumping them into innovative designed enclosures. Have you ever looked at the compoents of an iPod? Nothing new in there. CPU, RAM, hard drive, controller chips, battery, LCD, etc. No its the way they put it together and the way they created the complete package that is innovative.

In fact there are only a handful of real innovative devices Apple has ever put out. The Pizmo with its ingenious ability to be upgraded. The Newton. The Apple digital camera that was WELL ahead of its time. That is true hardware innovation.

I completely agree with you, and no offense taken. Perhaps the guts themselves are not revolutionary, however, as the old saying goes, "the sum is greater than the parts". I guess was referring to innovation in general, or in terms of the finished product. To me, the iPod is innovative - not because of its guts, but because of what Apple did with them and the vision they had. (Granted the click wheel is slightly innovative I would still say.) Perhaps I incorrectly cited "hardware innovation" when in actuality I was referring to the complete, finished product, and as the "hardware" appears in my hand or on my desk.

Fair enough? :cool:

[TWinbrook46636]

iMac
-6%

iBook
-1%

PowerMac
-10%

PowerBook
-3%

iPod
+134%

[desdomg]

I beg to differ:

http://www.macrumors.com/pages/2004/10/20041013172731.shtml

That is a link to current Apple Financial Ruslts, not future results. Current profits were made of $249 iPods, not $99 models.

Apple has stated publicly they dont think they can make money out of a $800 Mac, so they dont make one. Same would apply to a $99 iPod.

Some rumors (like the 15.4" PowerBook) although very enticing, will not happen.

[rdowns]

Remember when Apple used to make computers? Good times.

You mean the new iMac G5, new PM or the new iBooks? :rolleyes:

[rdowns]

Yes, I realize Apple's overall revenue increased 37% and that's great but do you realize 43% of hardware revenue was from the iPod? It was an easy 43% too and that's what worries me. Producing an iPod is much cheaper and easier than a PowerBook or a PowerMac. They have already separated the hardware divisions into Macintosh vs iPod. They may feel they can take the easy route with the iPod while letting the Macintosh division languish. Why put the time, money and effort into PowerBooks, PowerMacs and iBooks when they can just crank out iPods? Personally I think we are starting to see signs of this. Where does this leave Mac users? This would most certainly not be a good thing.

iPod revenue was 22% of overall Q4 revenue. Apple still derives most of their revenue and profits from Macs.

[iChan]

All the rumors hold about as much water as the title of this post. "LaCie providing the dual striped 500 GB HD array in Apple's new stylish 5"X10"X2" iPod Extreme! Dual scroll wheels allow for two finger DJaying with hardware based variable speed. The shortened nVidia 6800 Ultra offers expansion for twin 30" displays available this November. Did we mention the decoder is a G5 running at 1.6 GHz? Utilizing the same battery in the 17" PowerBook it gets an amazing 3.5 hours of battery life on one charge! (AC powerbrick available which doubles as an AirPort Express) 3rd part port for adding a Firewire 800 superdrive! USB 2.0, you betcha! IT'S AIRPORT EXTEME! Get one now NOW NOW! Only $800. Face it its cooler than a Dell!"

When does it end people? The iPod is a good addition to Apple's finesse, but it is not the soul of the company. I stand by my statement of an iPod should remain an iPod. Unless Apple wants to design a tablet, leave the iPod alone.

what are you talking about?

i didn't see any need to involve myself into this discussion, but nobody here is making any rash comments about the direction of the iPod except for you.

take a chill pill and relax.

[toughboy]

Now don't you go stealing my posts, toughboy... :rolleyes: I posted that idea in a different thread first. Oh, and BTW - RAM and Flash are NOT the same thing. Apple's not planning a RAM-based iPod - instead a Flash-based iPod is what is rumored.

:) Well this makes us two people who has the same genuine idea, maybe Apple's gonna listen to us.. :rolleyes:

I misused the word ram then... well what I meant was that, the iPod Micro wont have the spinning hard disk drive but will have a 'flash' drive :)

[eSnow]

I can get a 1GB CF module for around 60EUR, thats something like $78. Apple would be able to buy them in bulk for $30 - $50. Add display, portal player chip, battery and packaging and you arrive at something like $99 - production price.

There is no way Apple is going to offer an iPod family member for $99 in the near future. Target price for a 1-2GB flash-based iPod light (or 'lite' as marketing will dictate) would be $129 - $179, my personal estimate would be 2GB for $179.

However, the reported rumor does not fit in too great. Apple could save on R&D costs if they took the system layout from the minis and swap the microdrive for a solid-state CF. If they went this route, they would certainly not need any flash controllers from SigmaTel, since the portal player chip has a CF interface already.
To go with Sigma, they'd need to use their STMP35 (http://sigmatel.com/products/stmp35xxpb.htm), a single-chip decoder capable of mp3 and WMA. AAC? FireWire? Not mentioned. Obviously, Apple is a large enough customer that Sigma would add AAC + Fairplay at their request, but Apple would still need to port the whole iPod OS to this new platform *and* convince customers that they don't need FireWire any longer.


Maybe we should be more skeptical about this whole rumor. MacRumors is quoting iPodLounge which reference an article in MacWorld which, in turn quotes MacObserver. MO quotes Pflaum as saying:
Mr. Pflaum is estimating such a manufacturing deal with Apple could be a US$2 to $4 million revenue opportunity for SigmaTel. "The forecast is conservative at best," he told TMO.
Someone merely trying to boost Sigma share value?

Personally, I believe this should be a page 2 rumor since none of the publications seems to have any independant corroberation, only this Pflaum guy is quoted all along.

[iAlan]

The iPod mini is a logical addition to the iPod franchise. A flash device doesn't fit into the iPod strategy (IMO). I think the functionality and OS for the iPod (in conjunction with iTunes) would not work with a flash device, as most people have a heap of music on their computers. Also, would a flash player really support the iTunes Music Store (or vica versa) and who wants to manage songs on a flash player every day? I mean, you have a very limited numbe of songs and would want variety and therfore need to change songs loaded. I hope Apple doesn't go the flash player avenue, just bring the price down on the iPod mini and get the low end consumers.

[Chupa Chupa]

Given that the XM site requires the Win version of IE to listen online I heartily doubt an XMiPod is on the horizon. It would be cool, but not gonna happen.

[AoWolf]

These threads are so predicable. What we really wanna see on some concept art...

[crazedbytheheat]

There are three good reasons for a flash-based iPod priced under $150:

1. Price - I personally know people who are looking for music players that are unwilling to spend $250+ for an iPod. I'm sure a *lot* of parents doing Xmas shopping would also be interested in getting their kids one of these at this point.

2. No-skip. While I haven't personally had a problem running with my mini (green), but I do know a lot of people who are concerned with running with a hard drive.

3. Expand the market for AAC/Fairplay. Surprisingly I didn't see this mentioned yet, but assuming 1&2 led to increased market share for Apple, then this would also greatly help Apple in the music standards war. IMO, this is really the best reason to offer a lower-end music player.

[HiRez]

You can argue strongly (as many here have) that selling a cheap flash based iPod will convince flash based iPod buyers to upgrade to "real" iPods eventually. This strategy can backfire easily. A cheap, low quality iPod won't impress anyone and won't instill confidence in Apple products.I agree with everything you said, but you're forgetting one very important thing: the DRM format. Microsloth will soon have their own online music store up and running. Forget how much it will suck compared to iTMS, M$ doesn't care about making money on music, they are getting into the market for one reason and one reason only: to protect WMA and destroy AAC/Fairplay.

Apple is going to need to take steps (and possibly make compromises) to protect AAC eventually. So far they haven't had to because they have a superior product, but that could very well soon change. The real WMA vs. AAC war is coming, and soon. So anything that Apple can do right now to lock more people into its own format while they still can (a very Microsoftian concept, admittedly), the better it is for them. A few extra percentage points in format acceptance now could translate into a huge lead later on, and a long extension of Apple's dominance in the market.

[themacman]

I love xm. If they could just hold off on it, and make it smaller. If you could have all hte xm features on an ipod that would be the best thing on the market for hsure.

[Yvan256]

1gb USB drives retail for about $99.00 :

I would imagine that a 1gb flash based iPod is feasible. I would imagine also that the price might be somewhere in the range of $99 to $149

Pure speculation on my behalf fueled by the fact that 1gb worth of RAM (retail) on a USB device is $99 then the raw memory (bought in bulk at wholesale prices) is possibly two thirds the cost for Apple? I'm making up these numbers and have no facts to back them. Please comment if you have experience in wholesale memory pricing.

1GB Flash-based iPod minis. New colors (purple, orange, red and/or yellow) to differenciate from the 4GB HD-based iPod minis. Only 129$US (or is it 149$US?).

[Yvan256]

No way will there be a flash-based iPod while prices are this high.

A 4GB flash is $250. A 2GB flash is $150. Anything smaller and you're just carrying around a few albums, and an MP3-CD unit for $39 is where you're going to find the value.

When a 4GB flash is $50 (2 years) there may be a flash-based iPod.

If there's a flash-based iPod for Christmas I'll leave the country. Oh, wait, I'm not Alec Baldwin.

MP3-CD units are WAY too big to be nearly as useful as an iPod mini (or even regular iPod). And don't forget that consumer prices are always higher than manufacturing prices. If we pay 150$US for 2GB Flash, Apple may be able to pay 99$US for the same 2GB.

In fact, I'll even revise my earlier post:

2GB Flash-based iPod mini: 149$US.

[wettoads]

I know that Jobs said Apple was not considering a flash iPod. However, I think that Apple will introduce one. Reasons:

1-Takes the iPod into a new market. Some people will not buy a player unless it is much cheaper than the current iPods.

2-Introduces folks to the iPod brand - folks that might upgrade later (like BMW offering a cheaper car to get people hooked).

3-Great add-on product for existing iPodders. Having a 40-60GB for travel, home, etc AND a 1GB flash based for working out...that is a dream.

And...the kicker...all of the above help kill the competition.

I agree. No one has talked about this, I have a 40 gig G3 pod but that cost me big cash, now i want to get one for my daughter, she's only 10 there's no way i'm even gonna pay $249 for an iPod mini but I'd have no prob. paying $99.00 for a flash player. I mean parents have been paying that much for gameboys for forever. I think the kid market could be huge, and even though we've got 25 gigs of music she only listens to a small amount of it and would have fun managing her players memory.

[macridah]

I would be excited if apple came out with a flash player. That would be better for my jogging cuz flash players have less moving parts. After my 20 min buffer runs out, it stalls and plays a random song in the playlist.

[guez]

What about a flash-based iMac? It could retail for less than $200 and would appeal to all those kids who can't afford a $1299 G5. It would use a G3 and stripped-down version of OS X, or maybe even OS 7.5. Think of all the people who would fall in love with the Mac and go out and buy a dual 2.5 G5. You could sell it in bright colors. Maybe Apple could come up with some co-branding deal with Playskool.

[corywoolf]

What about a flash-based iMac? It could retail for less than $200 and would appeal to all those kids who can't afford a $1299 G5. It would use a G3 and stripped-down version of OS X, or maybe even OS 7.5. Think of all the people who would fall in love with the Mac and go out and buy a dual 2.5 G5. You could sell it in bright colors. Maybe Apple could come up with some co-branding deal with Playskool.

NO, that will NEVER happen. remember hot wheels edition pc's? it's appealing to little kids. but their parents usually wont buy it because they would rather let their kids share their own computer. The success of the imac recently is due to iLife. You couldn't run iLife on a flash based G3 imac. It would be a step back in time.

but at least you are thinking outside the box...

:cool:


haha, i think you said that just for shock value. you weren't serious...

[corywoolf]

i was thking about the flash based ipod, and like i said before, i think motorola will be coming out with a new version of the V3 razor. it will feature 528 mb storage and have a way to replace that with up to a gig. I really hope this happens, because i want a new cell phone and might be willing to pay $800 for a nice phone. the ironic thing is that anyone who can afford that phone can surely afford the ipods. so it wouldn't hit their under $200 market at all. Someone said that they have a v3 razor, but its not even available in stores yet? i know you can get it off ebay and a couple other sites as an import, but that means they still need to release it here soon. I saw one site that said it would be released in autumn this year. then another that said first half of 2005. Which one is correct??? itunes has already been developed for the phone, but it hasnt shipped with it yet and isnt available to anyone. damn motorola always screws things up!!!!! :mad: ;) sorry for the rant....

[Blue Velvet]

I love xm. If they could just hold off on it, and make it smaller. If you could have all hte xm features on an ipod that would be the best thing on the market for hsure.

Isn't that just a US thing? Never heard of it over here in the UK/EU...

[Porchland]

The success of the imac recently is due to iLife.

I've wondered to what extent the success of the iMac should be attributed to iLife, and I think it's one of about four factors. I'd like to see some customer research on this.

1. iLife's appeal to first-time Mac purchasers
2. iPod owners who want to move further inland
3. mounting virus and spyware problems with Windows
4. the cool factor (related partly to iPod)

There may be other factors, but I would suspect that these are all significant.

Given the iPod factor, Tuesday's announcement should tell us a lot about strategy going forward. Apple demonstrated this week that they are willing to put a laptop in your hands for $1,000; let's see if we get a sub-$200 iPod to go with it.

[unsigned]

http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2004/jul/26motorola.html

What's the secret?

[corywoolf]

http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2004/jul/26motorola.html

What's the secret?

yeah i know that, but motorola still hasn't rooled out a phone with itunes on it. i thought the v3 razor would have it but i heard it doesnt, plus it only has like 5mb of space.

i hope they come out with a new version soon with itunes and a bigger amount of storage! :rolleyes:

[Porchland]

I just bought a 1 GB CF card for $72. 2GB are about $130. In bulk, I am sure Apple can manage a lot lower price. I don't see why you cannot have a $99 1GB flash player. However, if Apple want's to even go that low is the question!

-Siva

A couple of prices I see just looking around a bit:
* SanDisk 256 MB CompactFlash ($60: Best Buy)
* SanDisk 512 MB CompactFlash ($70: best Buy)
* Lexar 1 GB CompactFlash ($103: Amazon)
* SanDisk 1 GB CompactFlash ($110: Best Buy)
* Lexar 2 GB Compact Flash ($201: Amazon)
* SanDisk 4 GB CompactFlash ($450: Best Buy)

Now compare other players (Best Buy):
* iRiver 256 MB ($150)
* Philips Nike 256 MB ($180)
* iRiver 512 MB ($200)
* SanDisk 512 MB ($200)
* Philips Nike 512 MB ($250)
* SanDisk 1 GB ($230)

So a competitively priced 256 MB iPod would be $149, and a 512 iPod would be $200. The SanDisk 1 GB is only $20 cheaper than the 4 GB iPod mini. Unless there are gigantic margins in these players, there's just nowhere to wedge a 2 GB iPod between a $200 512 MB player and a $250 4 GB player.

No way in hell is Apple going to get into the 128/256/512 market. If Apple comes out with a sub-4 GB iPod mini, it would very likely be $149, $199 or $229. And Apple can berely keep the 4 GB mini on the shelf at $249, so why mark it down now? There's just nowhere to go in the middle.

If prices are dropping fast enough to upgrade the mini to 6 GB or 8 GB without changing the price, I might could see Apple making a market share grab at the $149 or $200 price point with a 2 GB or 4 GB player. But, again, they can't keep the mini on the shelf at $249; it's tough call.

[verces]

My perceptions..

1. iPod is a high-branded product. It cost Apple to come where they are now, and its highly important that Jobs keeps this.
2. iPod's brand image and value is worth more than the revenue it currently creates. Maintainance.
3. iPod's basis is on music, not on other random stuff.
4. However Jobs, being a human, wants more money.
5. To do this, he needs market share.
6. iPod's current market share with regards to HD MP3, 90%, and Total, 70%.
7. To grab on to the rest of the 30%, he needs to enter the Flash market with the iPod.
8. To achieve this, Apple has to very careful. To mess with iPod's brand image would be literally doing a heart operation on Cupertino itself. Very very volatile.
9. First, as far as pricing goes, the iPod micro, must be kept on the high end of the scale. Jobs cannot afford to lose brand value. If he drops the iPod micro to $99, he's being very risky. He doesn't need the "poor-people" to buy iPods. He needs the middle to upper people to buy iPods. This retains brand value. Very very very imporant. A 59" Porsche 550A Spyder in a mint condition nowadays is only highly priced (ridiculously priced) because of its brand value and exclusivity. Sames goes for the rest. Take the Rolls for example. If they suddenly came to take on more market share, they would have to release a low-end Rolls. (low-end in Rolls-Royce terms would be around a 3 series BMW). That means pricing the low-end Rolls around the 5-series BMW range. Why? Because if every Tom Dick and Harry had a Rolls, it would't be a Rolls-Royce anymore. Brand value. Again, its very important for a company like Apple to retain this. It all comes down to desire. If one sees someone else with an iPod, and if they know how much it costs, and if they want one, they will aspire to have one. Something is only desirable when its difficult to acquire.
10. Apple's brand value went up this year. They owe it to Jobs and iPod. If they mess with iPod's brand image, its value will plummet, and consequently Apple.
11. So, keeping that in mind, they need to keep the price level up. Remember, if everyone was walking around with an iPod, and if it was cheap, if it became the point where "Agh, I can get if I wanted to, it costs nothing" then iPod brand value is no longer valuble. It has to be "Ooh, I want one, but its just so expensive...I'll save up" This creates brand value. Currently, the way Apple has made iPod something a product that someone would still buy even though it's expensive, is highly highly difficult for any company to do. Jobs would not want to lose that.
12. This means we eliminate affordable $99-$125 range. We end up in Apple's world of "cheap", which is $149. They will never have a $200 Flash player, they cannot retain enough market share to compensate for the high price. They need more high-school kids with their saved pocket money, entering the mini stores and giving away money. Not a lot of people will give two benjamins for a puny MP3 player. Another reason? Its getting too close to the iPod mini, that means, if they give an iPod mini upgrade, the price has to come down slightly, which jeopardises the iPod micro's price. Being on the safe side.
13. The New iPod micro. 250 Songs on your finger. For only $149.
14. With regards to space, its going to 1GB. They're not going to push it to a 512, nor a 2GB. The current available 1GB flash is around $99. Perfect. 1 is a very neutral number. 512? Its a little complex. 2GB? Too expensive for Jobs to keep a low price. Another reason for 512 not being a candidate is because that would also touching on iPod's brand image. People regard iPod as a MP3 player with lots of songs. They mess with that, they mess with iPod. The more the better.
15. That means, all in all, if they do bring, and thats a big IF, a iPod micro, its going to be a 1GB that costs $149. Still too pricey? Well thats Apple marketing and branding.
16. They buy their Flash for around $50, then add their costs to add in Tech, then you're left with $50 or $40. Thats still a lot left.
17. So say, you have $40~$50 * 1,000,000 units sold during Christmas, with MASS advertising around the Northern Hemisphere, push that to 2,000,000. You've got around $100,000,000 pure profit. Now thats marketing at its best. The end of 2004 is going to give Apple a very very Merry Christmas. Not to mention the $999 iBooks.
18. This at the end of day, made Apple successful on two major fronts. Taking control of the Flash MP3 market, which makes them 90% dominant in the MP3 market, which is what Jobs precisely wants. He wants iPod to be synonymous pronoun with the term MPEG-1 Layer 3 Audio Music Player. Also talking care of the 10-17 yearold market, where kids with their own pocket money, and those younger ones who will start believing in Santa Clause even more.
17. With the iPod, iPod mini, and now the iPod micro, The iPod will ensure Apple's complete and utter power in the MP3 player market.
18. iPodomination. ;)

[rmathus]

Isn't that just a US thing? Never heard of it over here in the UK/EU...

That's correct. It's only licensed in the U.S. Satellite Radio for the rest of the world is under WorldSpace Satellite Radio (http://www.worldspace.com).

I highly doubt there will be any integration with the iPod the reasons being that on xm411 (which someone else mentioned and that I'm a long time member of), there's the portable Roady 2 device that will be released by Delphi.

Secondly, XM Satellite Radio already signed an agreement with Microsoft and Dell for their XM Radio Online music streaming service using Windows Media Player, etc. While getting with Apple/iTunes/iPod would be awesome, it's not likely and unfortunate, too.

[SiliconAddict]

What about a flash-based iMac? It could retail for less than $200 and would appeal to all those kids who can't afford a $1299 G5. It would use a G3 and stripped-down version of OS X, or maybe even OS 7.5. Think of all the people who would fall in love with the Mac and go out and buy a dual 2.5 G5. You could sell it in bright colors. Maybe Apple could come up with some co-branding deal with Playskool.

I can’t tell if you are being facetious or not. Why don’t people get this!? Flash != cheap. Flash == low end of the product line.
There is absolutely NOTHING wrong with a flash based player as long as it can store enough songs to keep a person going for a day. Any device smaller then an iPod mini isn’t intended to store a person’s entire collection. Its intended to allow a person to take their music with them. Someone wants to go to the gym for a few hours. Someone is taking a 3 hour road trip. Someone is going to be sitting at work setting up a server. :rolleyes: *sighs* Etc. All of these examples a person is more likely to create a playlist and go. Think of this as a replacement to needing to burn a CD every time you leave the house. 100 songs in your pocket (512MB) or 200 songs in your pocket (1GB) is going to be enough to keep someone going for a day. Its catering to a different market.

Traditional ipod = all your tracks wherever you go.
Flash iPod = Select tracks wherever you go.

It’s a breakaway from what the iPod has traditionally been seen as but that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be a solid product. Hell if they bring one out and its cheap enough I may very well get one along with my 60GB iPod. :)

[fpnc]

Maybe we should be more skeptical about this whole rumor. MacRumors is quoting iPodLounge which reference an article in MacWorld which, in turn quotes MacObserver. MO quotes Pflaum as saying:

Mr. Pflaum is estimating such a manufacturing deal with Apple could be a US$2 to $4 million revenue opportunity for SigmaTel. "The forecast is conservative at best," he told TMO.

Someone merely trying to boost Sigma share value?

Personally, I believe this should be a page 2 rumor since none of the publications seems to have any independant corroberation, only this Pflaum guy is quoted all along.

I could not agree more. This very low cost, flash-memory-based iPod "rumor" is just plain wacky. I suspect that "analyst" Pflaum is completely misguided.

[dongmin]

Now compare other players (Best Buy):
* iRiver 256 MB ($150)
* Philips Nike 256 MB ($180)
* iRiver 512 MB ($200)
* SanDisk 512 MB ($200)
* Philips Nike 512 MB ($250)
* SanDisk 1 GB ($230)If companies like iRiver and Philips can't sell a 512mb flash player built on cheap-ass parts for under $200, how in hell is Apple gonna sell an 1 gb iPod with a metal body, touch-sensitive scroll wheel, a 138x110 resolution display, and dock connector for $150?

You guys are absolutely ABSURD. If Apple could make a device that cheap, they would. Steve has said so himself. Apple's trying to make it as cheap as possible to get it into as many hands as possible. But Apple is NOT gonna compromise on the quality of the product. Look, cheaper players have been around forever. But it's the iPod that people are buying. Just because people are cheap and can't afford to spend more than $150 on a music player doesn't mean that Apple needs to cater to that market. Apple owns 68% (http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=19058) of the ENTIRE mp3 market, including cheapo $50 flash players. What more do you want???

[Porchland]

18. This at the end of day, made Apple successful on two major fronts. Taking control of the Flash MP3 market, which makes them 90% dominant in the MP3 market, which is what Jobs precisely wants. He wants iPod to be synonymous pronoun with the term MPEG-1 Layer 3 Audio Music Player. Also talking care of the 10-17 yearold market, where kids with their own pocket money, and those younger ones who will start believing in Santa Clause even more.
17. With the iPod, iPod mini, and now the iPod micro, The iPod will ensure Apple's complete and utter power in the MP3 player market.
18. iPodomination. ;)

I agree generally but think a push by Apple in the flash player market has more to do with format and FUTURE market share than pure shre of the flash player market. I mean: I think Apple is more concerned about first-time player purchasers choosing AAC (iPod) then buying a WMA player and being potentially lost to iPod forever.

Face it, you're going to be the Avril Lavigne CD once: the actual disc, WMA or AAC. Converting WMA-player owners to AAC/iPod is going to get increasingly difficult has more player owners have a significant library of DMR'd tracks.

I think any push into the flash player market is more about a landgrab for AAC than pure market share. That said, a cheaper iPod could be a loss-leader for Apple; get them in the door for less, and they'll buy a higher-margin iPod the next time.

[Porchland]

Just because people are cheap and can't afford to spend more than $150 on a music player doesn't mean that Apple needs to cater to that market.

That's just not true. As I've posted in this thread, this is a critical market for Apple. A $150 iRiver purchasers today is going to be a harder sell six months from now than someone who's buying their first device.

Assuming WMA and AAC continue to be mutually exclusive, paid downloads are going to become an increasingly significant factor. The bigger a user's paid library gets, the higher the hurdle to getting him to switch.

[dejo]

it will feature 528 mb storage

Sorry to be picky, but where in the heck do you get 528 mb storage? I think you mean to say 512, right? :)

And since I'm being picky, you probably meant to say "MB" instead of "mb". MB = mega bytes. mb = milli bits.

[izzle22]

What about a flash-based iMac? It could retail for less than $200 and would appeal to all those kids who can't afford a $1299 G5. It would use a G3 and stripped-down version of OS X, or maybe even OS 7.5. Think of all the people who would fall in love with the Mac and go out and buy a dual 2.5 G5. You could sell it in bright colors. Maybe Apple could come up with some co-branding deal with Playskool.

Put down the Crack Pipe NOW!!!

[corywoolf]

Sorry to be picky, but where in the heck do you get 528 mb storage? I think you mean to say 512, right? :)

And since I'm being picky, you probably meant to say "MB" instead of "mb". MB = mega bytes. mb = milli bits.

haha no, i think it will be 528 mb ;)

(jk, thats what i meant)

[~Shard~]

iMac
-6%

iBook
-1%

PowerMac
-10%

PowerBook
-3%

iPod
+134%

And that's your entire post?! Okay then:

Red
+98%

Purple
-78%

My cousin Steve's car
+753.23%

A diseased yak
0EFF %

See, you're not the only one who can quote a bunch of numbers and not provide any explanation whatsoever to their relevance. :p :cool:

[Yvan256]

If Apple could come out with a cheap $99 player that EVERYONE could afford they would all but lock up the market. The reality is that there are a ton of people that aren't in the market for a hard drive player and the price of even an iPod mini is overkill. If Apple doesn't do something to close this hole they will face the same problem they are facing with their computer line vs cheap PC's. Apple advocates can bitch all they want about how this wouldn't aid Apple's bottom line. We aren't talking the bottom line here. We are talking about maintaining market share of iTMS which in return aids the iPod since we are talking about a complete system here. Since Apple has made the conscious decision of saying we are going at this alone (Dude HP is just a redistributer. They aren't making their own device.) Apple has to offer a total solution for not only the high end (60GB) Medium range (20GB) but also the low range. (512MB-1GB)
The low end is a viable market where Apple CAN make money. Just not nearly as much as the hard drive iPod. Time to face reality. Either build the product or face eroding online download sales due to these cheap players. Which will over time eat at iTMS sales.

Indeed. We need to close the hole on the WMA/Microsoft threat (sorry, but Sony's was out of the picture before it even began). And even if the profits are lower on low-cost iPods (say, 1GB Flash iPod mini), they'll sell so many, in the end they'll make more profits overall.

[Yvan256]

What about a flash-based iMac? It could retail for less than $200 and would appeal to all those kids who can't afford a $1299 G5. It would use a G3 and stripped-down version of OS X, or maybe even OS 7.5. Think of all the people who would fall in love with the Mac and go out and buy a dual 2.5 G5. You could sell it in bright colors. Maybe Apple could come up with some co-branding deal with Playskool.

Well, except for the "flash-based" and "less than 200$", you kind of described the original iMac (G3, OS 7.5, bright colors, playskool-like design).

If I remember correctly, it sold pretty well. ;)

Speaking about the G3 (since it's been out of the picture for a while), I know I'd buy a CD-less sub-notebook G3/800MHz if it had up to at least 512MB, 30GB, 800x600 LCD, two USB 2.0, one FireWire400, Ethernet, S-Video out and ran OS X. Make it half the size of a 12" iBook/PowerBook, price it at 499$US and you already got a unit sold.

[Yvan256]

Isn't that just a US thing? Never heard of it over here in the UK/EU...

I'm in Canada and I never really heard about "XM radio" before either.

Would Apple really release a USA-only device?

[Yvan256]

I've wondered to what extent the success of the iMac should be attributed to iLife, and I think it's one of about four factors. I'd like to see some customer research on this.

1. iLife's appeal to first-time Mac purchasers
2. iPod owners who want to move further inland
3. mounting virus and spyware problems with Windows
4. the cool factor (related partly to iPod)

There may be other factors, but I would suspect that these are all significant.

As a yet-to-switch computer user:

- #1 and #3 are definitely the main reasons to buy a Mac.

- #2 isn't really about the iPod, it's about iTunes. It's what really opened my eyes to what good software can (and should) be. I did buy an iPod, but without iTunes I'd never have paid that price for an MP3 player and I would've kept my 64MB Flash MP3 player.

#4 may be a factor to some people, but not for me (I do appreciate the design, but that was only the icing on the cake. I'll never buy a good-looking piece of crap, no matter how good it looks).

[Yvan256]

Traditional ipod = all your tracks wherever you go.
Flash iPod = Select tracks wherever you go.

iPod : your library to go
iPod mini : your classics to go
Flash iPod mini : your mood to go

:D

[Yvan256]

If companies like iRiver and Philips can't sell a 512mb flash player built on cheap-ass parts for under $200, how in hell is Apple gonna sell an 1 gb iPod with a metal body, touch-sensitive scroll wheel, a 138x110 resolution display, and dock connector for $150?

If a company like Apple can sell a 4GB hard-disk-based player for 249$US, how in hell are companies like iRiver and Philips selling 512MB Flash players for 199$?

We're simply saying the most expensive of the iPod mini is probably the 4GB 1.8" hard disk, so replacing it with 1GB flash would lower the cost and could allow Apple to sell it for around 149$US.

Apple owns 68% (http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=19058) of the ENTIRE mp3 market, including cheapo $50 flash players. What more do you want???

The last 32% of the MP3 market? :D

[Yvan256]

Assuming WMA and AAC continue to be mutually exclusive, paid downloads are going to become an increasingly significant factor. The bigger a user's paid library gets, the higher the hurdle to getting him to switch.

And since WMA = Microsoft, we're simply all hoping Apple will give it its best to allow *everyone* to get access to iTunes/ITMS/iPod/AAC.

Because if they're not iTunes/ITMS/iPod/AAC users, they're WMA/Microsoft drones, funding the illegal monopoly that is Microsoft.

[MacinDoc]

iPod : your library to go
iPod mini : your classics to go
Flash iPod mini : your mood to go

:D
Do you want fries with that? ;)
Seriously, though, I doubt that Apple could do this for the rumored $99 price point, considering that even most cheap 256 MB MP3 players are more expensive than this. If this rumor is correct, I suspect that the iPod Flash will only have 256 MB of flash, and will not come with a dock.

[Yvan256]

About those band-branded iPods... They could be a viable possibility *if* they're limited editions. They become collectables and don't "downgrade" the brand/quality of the iPod at all.

In fact, for such an expensive consumer electronic device, becoming a collectable would only *boost* the iPod brand (in some weird way).

Or maybe, *maybe* the "U2-edition" iPod will be that 1GB flash iPod mini? Those would be better to collect (since they're cheaper) and more people could "collect them all" (I smell a Nintendo-Apple promotion soon. I want a Metroid iPod mini!) :D

I keep saying that 60GB 1.8" drive will go in a G3, CD-less, 9" LCD sub-notebook. :)

[Yvan256]

Do you want fries with that? ;)
Seriously, though, I doubt that Apple could do this for the rumored $99 price point, considering that even most cheap 256 MB MP3 players are more expensive than this. If this rumor is correct, I suspect that it will only be 256 MB of flash, and will not come with a dock.

The iPod mini comes with the dock? Remove that, stick to 1GB Flash and sell it for 149$US!

Go Microso.... D'oh!

Go Apple!
:eek:

[MacinDoc]

Or maybe, *maybe* the "U2-edition" iPod will be that 1GB flash iPod mini?
That could be problematic, since that iPod is supposed to come pre-loaded with all of U2's recordings, and those would account for quite a bit of the available space on a 1GB iPod.

BTW, sorry for breaking your streak... :o

[izzle22]

The iPod mini comes with the dock? Remove that, stick to 1GB Flash and sell it for 149$US!

Go Microso.... D'oh!

Go Apple!
:eek:

The iPod Mini does not Come with a dock, it is seperate!

[The Sheck]

My friend who is one of the program directors at XM, when I asked him about this, confirmed it's going to be an ipod. Sweet!

[nagromme]

An XM-Apple tie-in (maybe iPod) is sounding more plausible the more I think about it.

I can't say I think it WILL be true, but I'm starting to think it COULD be.

What a hilarious way to answer MS's contention that people want to rent music on their computers and then move it to portable players. XM would one-up that, and cut the loading-songs labor out of the process in classic Apple simplicity :D

[solvs]

Remember the $99 to $149 rumors pre-mini? Prepare to be disappointed. If it is $99, it will not be very big storage wise. Plus, I have a satellite radio. The receiver itself is bigger than an iPod. You've already seen the new XM radio on page 1. Maybe some kinda XM cross promotion. U2 cross promotion. New iPod. New iTunes. More iTMS locations.

[Blue Velvet]

An XM-Apple tie-in (maybe iPod) is sounding more plausible the more I think about it.


I think it's unlikely, only for the reason that this USP will only work in the US and poss Canada.

Not Japan, Europe, Australasia... etc.

Unless, it's a US only release but that doesn't further the aim of plugging iTMS globally...

I just can't see it, perhaps 'cos I'm blind :)

[milatchi]

Wow, a $99 Flash based iPod. That will go great with my $800 upgradeable headless iMac.

[JOHNGAETANO]

Apple is not going to release 5 or 6 new iPods. Come on people.

JOHN

[iZzle]

I recommend reading the current issue of MacAddict which talks about myriad iPod possibilities.

[iAlan]

M$ ... are getting into the market for one reason and one reason only: to protect WMA and destroy AAC/Fairplay.

I am not up to speed on this, but will record companies be comfortable with WMA in terms of copyright? Apple really needs to push AAC/Fairplay as the 'secure' option and get the record companies to support this - forcing MS to the format if they are to launch a musuc service, then the question remains - will iPod and iTunes compatability work with a MS music service?

Still do not like the idea of a flash iPod (see post above) - can you imagine BMW comming out with a cheap Hyundi style car?

[hob]

I'm in Canada and I never really heard about "XM radio" before either.

Would Apple really release a USA-only device?

As far as I can see - XM radio is what we brits call DAB. Except XM sound MUCH MORE EXCITING than plain old DAB... of course...

American's always have to make everything sound exciting/erotic/both... whereas us brits come off as radio-geek types...

Remembering conversations with my canadian brother, I don't think there's XM/DAB in canada...

Hob

[ClimbingTheLog]

I said earlier I didn't think this was going to happen. I still don't see how they could do it for $99 unless they've got a better deal from RIAA (they still have to make money on the iPod since iTMS doesn't make much money).

However, I just read this:

http://forums.appleinsider.com/showthread.php?s=&threadid=47408

and if, reading between the lines, there is a supply-chain shortfall I'm guessing it's the hard drives, so a flash-player may make some sense to get the supply up to where the demand is.

If they do do this, I'd like to see a removable storage "bay" so the end-user could order a hard-drive upgrade and slide out the flash memory and slide in the new G-sensing hard drive unit. I'd make it like the rechargable batteries on a digital camera, push slide, pop.

As a bonus you could have multiple hard drives for your iPod, if you were a total music freak. You could also replace dead ones without paying for a service repair.

Contacts and plastic are cheap. So are "allowed devices" as per the recent iTunes release. Maybe the "allowed device" increase is to permit a few spare hard drives. That would bump Apple ahead of the competition, yet again.

[Inspector Lee]

I just can't see them releasing a $99 option and keeping the current mini. Jobs stated last year at MWSF that the mini was going to be kind of like a second iPod for people - one they could take places where they didn't need their entire library a la the gym. I've got a 2G 20GB at home and I take a mini with me to the gym. I don't need 4 gig for the gym but the form factor is right on. It doesn't need to be any smaller. However... I understand the dilemma people new to the iPod are faced with. For an extra $50 they can get a lot more space going with a traditional iPod. And this isn't to say that I wouldn't jump on a small flash-based player because my fraulein needs one. All in all, I find this rumor interesting because Apple refused to break down the mini v. "old school" iPod sales when releasing their quarterly results last week.

[nagromme]

1. A flash iPod need not be a new product line at all, just a new size (GB and thickness) of Mini. (And I doubt the flash chips will be removable--it would mess with the iPod design and not appeal to that many people. Apple could have done that with the current CF-format Mini if they'd wanted to.)

2. A flash player need not be ultra-low-capacity. I predict no less than 2 GB, 500 songs. Apple won't even TRY to compete with the semi-useless 250-songs-or-less "throw in a drawer and forget" players. They don't meet Apple's standard for usefulness, and they are just a fraction of the 38% of the player market (by units--LESS by dollars) that Apple doesn't already have.

3. And therefore don't expect it for a bottom-end 128 MB flash player price. It would be $199 upon release, I predict. That's very competitive if you look at what's out there. (And around that time, expect the HD Mini to hold more--maybe 5 or 6 GB.)

4. And therefore it may not be on the 26th. Flash memory is expensive, and I expect to see one WHEN it is economical to produce one significantly cheaper than the HD Mini. That could be soon if Apple gets great bulk deals, but I'm thinking much closer to Xmas, or next year.

5. But one day, when the economics are right, a flash iPod of USEFUL capacity will make sense. It will have the usual power and durability benefits. So of course Apple WILL have such a product. The question is when.

[dotnina]

That could be problematic, since that iPod is supposed to come pre-loaded with all of U2's recordings, and those would account for quite a bit of the available space on a 1GB iPod.

BTW, sorry for breaking your streak... :o

Early rumors said it would be the whole U2 catalog, but from what I (at least) have seen lately, it's going to be a "portion" of the catalog.

That makes good sense, too ... they would need to make this iPod more than the $30 premium to cover the cost of handing out all the U2 songs ever.

[adamsan]

As far as I can see - XM radio is what we brits call DAB. Except XM sound MUCH MORE EXCITING than plain old DAB... of course...


Doesn't XM use satellites though? DAB (http://www.bbc.co.uk/digitalradio/about/dabwork.shtml) is an entirely European initiative and won't be compatible. Seeing as most of the MPEG decoding circuitry is already present in an iPod then building in a DAB tuner would be pretty cheap and non-US iPods might incorporate one of those instead. Alternatively, Apple just won't bother...

[Poff]

As some others have pointed out, if you look at the prices of other flash-players, Apple will have a hard time making a $99 1GB player.

The cheapest 256MB player I've found is priced just below $45. WITHOUT screen, but with USB 2.0 (Apacer Audio Steno VA210)
The cheapest 512MB player I've found is priced just below $130. With a small screen and USB 2.0 (TwinMOS RedRock S21)


Apple allready has 128MB(?) flash in their players for skip-protection, so you could subtract their cost of the hard-drive and get a price-approximation on a 128MB flash-iPod. I, however, do not believe this will be made.

At 512MB, I don't see how Apple can sell it much below $149. They might be able to use their goodwill to persuade others to give them good deals. If most of the innards of the flash-player would be the same as in the iPod mini, the cost of screen would be peanuts. The click-wheel would probably cost a bit.


Those rambling on about a $99 1GB flash-player are just hilarious. Lets take an example on the iPod mini.

Apple sells the mini for $249.
I do not know how much they pay for the 4GB hard-drive, but lets assume it's $100.
So if we remove the 4GB drive and replace it with a $50 1GB flash-card, the cost will be $50 less.
The retail price? $199.

[clonenode]

There is always a 6 - 12 month lag between when some "insider" speaks of Apple tooling up for a new product and the actual release of said product. Apple may have a new, flash-based player in production, but we will not see it until after January.

[izzle22]

Apple will NOT include XM radio on the iPod it would be a waste and an added piece of junk to a great product. If you want XM buy an XM player.
CASE CLOSED! Lets move on now. Thanks :)

[MacinDoc]

Those rambling on about a $99 1GB flash-player are just hilarious. Lets take an example on the iPod mini.

Apple sells the mini for $249.
I do not know how much they pay for the 4GB hard-drive, but lets assume it's $100.
So if we remove the 4GB drive and replace it with a $50 1GB flash-card, the cost will be $50 less.
The retail price? $199.
Exactly. Even a 256 MB iPod Flash would have to cost at least $149.

[Poff]

After giving this a little thought, I'm thinking that a secure way to market these new flash-iPods will be not to market them at all!

People like dissing flash-players. And we all know the iPod mini is a HD-player. So what if they just started to sell several versions of the mini?


iPod mini 4GB - $249
iPod mini 1GB - $199
iPod mini 512MB - $149


They won't even have to mention the word "Flash", just say they've made smaller and more affordable versions of the iPod mini.

If this is what they'll do, however, I doubt we'll see a 512MB model, since this would not look so good. A choice between a 4GB and a 1GB model would seem more tidy and attractive, I guess.

(crosses fingers for 1GB iPod mini at a $169 price-point)

[scottkle]

Apple will NOT include XM radio on the iPod it would be a waste and an added piece of junk to a great product. If you want XM buy an XM player.
CASE CLOSED! Lets move on now. Thanks :)


OK, so about this combined XM and Ipod ... It's a fantastic idea. First of all, all this whining about the $99 iPod that will never happen in my lifetime is annoying. The cheapest 1 GB card is like $89 (trust me, I know .. i buy them). Apple still needs to put all the other stuff into it and make a profit. $179 if you are lucky, $199 is it happens at all.

I love XM. The thought of being able to use the ITMS OR XM is a beautiful thought that I would be most anxious to get in on. XM is looking for a way to outshine Sirius after the Howard Stern deal. A deal with Apple would make that happen so fast, Sirius' satellites will spin. This would be a high-end iPod, though, with a color screen and a required subscription to XM that would be discounted.

I'm the creative type. Apple is creative, but not quite as creative as me. They need to think like this. You get something as cool as the iPod and add a satellite radio to it that works all across the country and BAM!

Sure, they can't market it in Canada or Europe since XM isn't over there, but you know what? I respectfully say "who cares." I love other countries, but not enough for it to affect my iPod. I'll spend money in Canada on a Coffee Crisp or seeing Niagara Falls, but I could care less when they get the music store.

Nuff said. Let the angry responses begin. :-)

[Porchland]

And we all know the iPod mini is a HD-player. So what if they just started to sell several versions of the mini?


iPod mini 4GB - $249
iPod mini 1GB - $199
iPod mini 512MB - $149


They won't even have to mention the word "Flash", just say they've made smaller and more affordable versions of the iPod mini.


I agree. There won't be an "iPod micro." If there's an iPod smaller than 4 GB, it will be branded an iPod mini. It probably wouldn't look any different from a mini and there's no reason to differentiate another brand into the marketing.

[gekko513]

I really don't understand where people get the cost Apple is paying for the 4GB drive in the iPod mini ... $100?? Why was there all these articles about how the cheapest retail way to get a 4GB microdrive was to buy an iPod mini and rip the drive out?

[zelmo]

A flash drive iPod mini helps Apple broaden the market for iTMS and AAC/Fairplay, in preparation for the coming DRM war with M$.

Rather that weaken the iPod brand, such a device DONE RIGHT might instill confidence to consumers who look at the current crop of 256/512 players as throwaway devices like portable CD players. My daughter went thru 2 a year at least. I wouldn't get her an iPod until she proved more responsible with her gear. Parents who shell out $99 for Gameboy, $149 for an Xbox or PS2, are going to like an Apple iPod at a low price point because they are used to paying those prices and they know that Apple is a well respected company. Twelve year old kids who have a small music collection don't need even 4GB, and they all grow up to be consumers.

A 1GB iPod mini for $139 and/or a 2GB iPod mini at $179? They'd sell like candy.

[Mainyehc]

I can't imagine Apple making any money on a $99 flash iPod when a 1 gb USB drive goes for $99. How do you add the battery, LCD, decoder chip, and a click wheel and make money off of a $99 player.

What about those people who bought minis, just to gut them out, because the CF-size 4GB HD inside it was actually *more* expensive than an iPod mini, when bought separately?? HA!

Perhaps the difference of price between bulk and retail as far as memory is concerned is substantially smaller than that of HD's? I don't know about that, but if it isn't, then, a $99-$149 iPod mini/micro/whatever is very feasible and profitable ;)

[MacWhispers]

Regardless of the validity of any of the current iPod rumors, there are certainly some important business issues to be faced by Apple and its new iPod division. And, those decisions must be made against whatever long-range positioning strategy Apple has in place with a variety of the company's products, including hardware, software, and services. Here's how it breaks down.

If Apple plans to make the portable hardware component of its growing A/V based operations the profit center for the company, then maintaining iPod prices and margins is the direction to go: No cheap iPods

If Apple plans on making its AAC/Fairplay franchise the future profit center, through growing downloads of both music and (eventually) video, then it is in the company's best interest to tilt all decisions now toward growing the raw number of AAC/Fairplay enabled devices in the market: Cheap iPods make sense

Wiht the Motorola cell phone deal, and with the aggressiveness with which Quicktime is being promoted to the cellphone industries, there are hints visible that Apple is leaning toward the idea of building its future revenue model around the ubiquity of its media encoding and DRM platforms. And, that approach would seem to make for a good business case.

Within the idea of growing the number of devices in the market that handle Apple's DRM system, it makes sense to carefully move into the flash-based music player space. As one poster here pointed out, everybody who buys a WMA based player today, and who then begins accummulating a DRM'd WMA based music collection is going to be a very, very difficult convert for Apple down the road. The reality is that whatever DRM platform a consumer chooses today is likely to remaim the DRM platform for that user, long-term. So, if Apple has designs on growing hugely into the content download business, its potential customer base for such future endeavors is shrinking today by every cheap flash player sold.

My judgment is that Apple should not be too terribly dazzled by the current revenue and profit numbers from the present iPod lineup to consisder making a well-crafted play for the flash based player space. The move should be done in Apple's typical high-road manner, and should not be a price-only move. After all, the distinguishing factors in the iPod's success as a hardware device are its trademark user interface and its "just works" operation wiht either Mac or Windows iTunes. Those features would have to be migrated, without compromise, to any flash based iPod version.

I've done some checking around the industry, and have concluded that at Apple's production volumes, they can hit their margin targets with a $149 1GB flash iPod. Doing so would require some modest price concessions (based on a long-term Apple volume commitment) from its flash supplier, and woould require using soldered flash on the new iPod's circuit board (rather than SD or other standard packaging), making the new iPod Micro a non-upgradable product (also within Apple's normal methods).

All of that now said, good research and solid reasoning support the notion of Apple coming to market with a $149 1GB flash based iPod, and soon. The click wheel interface can easily be scaled down to 2/3rd it present diameter and be wonderfully functional, as can the LCD display. So, my guess is that the micro will look like a neatly scaled down mini. No new efforts at reinventing the wheel are needed (no pun intended), as the scroll wheel interface and the display both work great at smaller sizes. And, the iPod mini "look," but at 2/3rd the footprint and one-half the thickness would be a killer design, especially at a $149 price. That iPod micro would instantly open a whole new swath of buyers.

Now, only time will tell if the good folks in Cuprtino are reading the tea leaves the same way I am reading them. However, what I've said here does make both good business sense and good technology sense.

[gekko513]

Creative Muvo Micro 1GB is around $189 so I wouldn't expect a 1GB Apple iPod mini to cost any less. If a 1GB mini is introduced it will probably be $199

Edit: Although I hope MacWhispers is right.

[Poff]

I really don't understand where people get the cost Apple is paying for the 4GB drive in the iPod mini ... $100?? Why was there all these articles about how the cheapest retail way to get a 4GB microdrive was to buy an iPod mini and rip the drive out?

I was just taking a guess. These drives did cost several hundred $ in regular stores, but I'm guessing this price was set by demand, not calculated from production costs. Apple is a totally different segment, and gets to buy them cheaper because the drives are calculated by another set of demand. Apple has a high profit-margin on their iPods. (though a lower one on the minis).

[wrldwzrd89]

Regardless of the validity of any of the current iPod rumors, there are certainly some important business issues to be faced by Apple and its new iPod division. And, those decisions must be made against whatever long-range positioning strategy Apple has in place with a variety of the company's products, including hardware, software, and services. Here's how it breaks down.

If Apple plans to make the portable hardware component of its growing A/V based operations the profit center for the company, then maintaining iPod prices and margins is the direction to go: No cheap iPods

If Apple plans on making its AAC/Fairplay franchise the future profit center, through growing downloads of both music and (eventually) video, then it is in the company's best interest to tilt all decisions now toward growing the raw number of AAC/Fairplay enabled devices in the market: Cheap iPods make sense

Wiht the Motorola cell phone deal, and with the aggressiveness with which Quicktime is being promoted to the cellphone industries, there are hints visible that Apple is leaning toward the idea of building its future revenue model around the ubiquity of its media encoding and DRM platforms. And, that approach would seem to make for a good business case.

Within the idea of growing the number of devices in the market that handle Apple's DRM system, it makes sense to carefully move into the flash-based music player space. As one poster here pointed out, everybody who buys a WMA based player today, and who then begins accummulating a DRM'd WMA based music collection is going to be a very, very difficult convert for Apple down the road. The reality is that whatever DRM platform a consumer chooses today is likely to remaim the DRM platform for that user, long-term. So, if Apple has designs on growing hugely into the content download business, its potential customer base for such future endeavors is shrinking today by every cheap flash player sold.

My judgment is that Apple should not be too terribly dazzled by the current revenue and profit numbers from the present iPod lineup to consisder making a well-crafted play for the flash based player space. The move should be done in Apple's typical high-road manner, and should not be a price-only move. After all, the distinguishing factors in the iPod's success as a hardware device are its trademark user interface and its "just works" operation wiht either Mac or Windows iTunes. Those features would have to be migrated, without compromise, to any flash based iPod version.

I've done some checking around the industry, and have concluded that at Apple's production volumes, they can hit their margin targets with a $149 1GB flash iPod. Doing so would require some modest price concessions (based on a long-term Apple volume commitment) from its flash supplier, and woould require using soldered flash on the new iPod's circuit board (rather than SD or other standard packaging), making the new iPod Micro a non-upgradable product (also within Apple's normal methods).

All of that now said, good research and solid reasoning support the notion of Apple coming to market with a $149 1GB flash based iPod, and soon. The click wheel interface can easily be scaled down to 2/3rd it present diameter and be wonderfully functional, as can the LCD display. So, my guess is that the micro will look like a neatly scaled down mini. No new efforts at reinventing the wheel are needed (no pun intended), as the scroll wheel interface and the display both work great at smaller sizes. And, the iPod mini "look," but at 2/3rd the footprint and one-half the thickness would be a killer design, especially at a $149 price. That iPod micro would instantly open a whole new swath of buyers.

Now, only time will tell if the good folks in Cuprtino are reading the tea leaves the same way I am reading them. However, what I've said here does make both good business sense and good technology sense.
That makes a lot of sense to me, MacWhispers. I could easily see a new iPod introduced at US$149 to enter a new market segment. What would be even more impressive is if Apple threw in another one at US$99 - but I don't think Apple is willing to drop the capacity enough to feasibly reach US$99 at their profit margins. Apple has repeatedly said in the past that it refuses to make a dinky 256MB flash player, since such a device doesn't hold enough music to be truly useful.

[MacWhispers]

What would be even more impressive is if Apple threw in another one at US$99 - but I don't think Apple is willing to drop the capacity enough to feasibly reach US$99 at their profit margins.
At 1,000,000+ purchase volumes the difference in price between a 512MB and 1GB flash chip is only about $5, which would translate to only about a $15 to $18 decrease in MSRP, assuming similar profit margins.

The sweet spot now (and looking a year out) is at 1GB/$149. So much of the iPod cost is the actual player, itself, regardless of the storage subsystem used, that the platform can't be scaled to $99, even with zero storage. Again, even with no flash or hard drive, the iPod platform cannot be built and sold for a retail price of $99, and meet Apple's profit margin requirements. Everyone here wishing for such a thing should move their expectations upward by $50.

[wrldwzrd89]

At 1,000,000+ purchase volumes the difference in price between a 512MB and 1GB flash chip is only about $5, which would translate to only about a $15 to $18 decrease in MSRP, assuming similar profit margins.

The sweet spot now (and looking a year out) is at 1GB/$149. So much of the iPod cost is the actual player, itself, regardless of the storage subsystem used, that the platform can't be scaled to $99, even with zero storage. Again, even with no flash or hard drive, the iPod platform cannot be built and sold for a retail price of $99, and meet Apple's profit margin requirements. Everyone here wishing for such a thing should move their expectations upward by $50.
I didn't know that the cost of the storage was insignificant at Apple's production levels, thus making a US$99 iPod impossible right now. Thanks for the info MacWhispers!

[izzle22]

OK, so about this combined XM and Ipod ... It's a fantastic idea. First of all, all this whining about the $99 iPod that will never happen in my lifetime is annoying. The cheapest 1 GB card is like $89 (trust me, I know .. i buy them). Apple still needs to put all the other stuff into it and make a profit. $179 if you are lucky, $199 is it happens at all.

I love XM. The thought of being able to use the ITMS OR XM is a beautiful thought that I would be most anxious to get in on. XM is looking for a way to outshine Sirius after the Howard Stern deal. A deal with Apple would make that happen so fast, Sirius' satellites will spin. This would be a high-end iPod, though, with a color screen and a required subscription to XM that would be discounted.

I'm the creative type. Apple is creative, but not quite as creative as me. They need to think like this. You get something as cool as the iPod and add a satellite radio to it that works all across the country and BAM!

Sure, they can't market it in Canada or Europe since XM isn't over there, but you know what? I respectfully say "who cares." I love other countries, but not enough for it to affect my iPod. I'll spend money in Canada on a Coffee Crisp or seeing Niagara Falls, but I could care less when they get the music store.

Nuff said. Let the angry responses begin. :-)

So if I want a new iPod, it's not only going to have this XM crap taking up space for a potential loger lasting battery but now I have to PAY for a subscription to XM to use the service! NO THANKS! Leave the iPod alone it's a music player not a satelite receiver!

[wrldwzrd89]

So if I want a new iPod, it's not only going to have this XM crap taking up space for a potential loger lasting battery but now I have to PAY for a subscription to XM to use the service! NO THANKS! Leave the iPod alone it's a music player not a satelite receiver!
Actually, izzle22, I'd bet that IF the XM service was available to iPod users, a subscription to it wouldn't be required to use the iPod, and it would be tucked away as one of the menu items.

[gekko513]

Hey, MacWhispers, how do you know that the difference between 512MB and 1024MB is $5 with purchases of 1 000 000+ units. Are you in the business or are you also starting to pull numbers out of nowhere?

[izzle22]

Actually, izzle22, I'd bet that IF the XM service was available to iPod users, a subscription to it wouldn't be required to use the iPod, and it would be tucked away as one of the menu items.

I DID relize that, my point was the XM receiver would be taking up room in the iPod( I'm sorry but they can't tuck away a satelite receiver in a menu) and most people that just went out and spent $500 on an iPod are not going to want to spend $20 a month on crappy radio! And if you fully read my post you would see that I said I would have to pay to use the service not the iPod itself.

[Mainyehc]

Right, just like when, during the intro of the makeup-mirror iMac, Steve dissed the idea of making the computer part of the flat panel display. A horrible idea, Apple would never do it....

This is a bit off-topic, but anyway...

My old iMac was a 17'' G4, 1,25 GHz, the very last swing-arm iMac model produced (and the one with the better-looking proportions, the 20''er seemed kind of... unbalanced and clumsy, IMHO). Now, I'm using a 20'' iMac G5, and yes, it's gorgeous, great, whatever you call it.
But I'm kinda sad that things turned out this way. While it was still being produced, the flagship flat-panel iMac, even though sometimes people made fun of it, was still... how should I put this... respected.
I was expecting the older iMac to have a "cube-like" future: to become a cult-machine, that damn old computer in which people keep cramming faster processors and weird cooling systems. It makes me sad, it was a great-looking (and over-priced, just like the Cube ;) ) machine, and now everyone (who dind't particularly enjoyed it's shape, whether because they never tried one or were envious because they never owned one) treats it like if it was a design aberration.

-------------

About the blatant incoherence resulting of Steve Jobs' RDF, I don't give a damn, it's great that the iMac G5 was developed, even though I liked the old iMac's looks, this one is much more functional (the viewing angle of the 20''er is great, so not having the vertical and horizontal screen adjustment isn't a big deal). My only gripe with it is the defective buzzing PSU, which I'll hopefully replace soon.

Apple, bring us the Flash-based iPod, I know a lot of people who would buy it the next second! A flash-based *iPod* wouldn't be dingy, just by bearing the name "iPod" and by having a scroll wheel and a nice large LCD screen (assuming that Apple would never EVER design a weird-shaped horrible-looking device with empty CF or SD slots, and lots and lots of seams, and would instead keep the most basic iPod design principles).

Think about it... Have you ever hold one of those... "thingies"? They're awfully shaped and have weird, small controls. Carrying less than 1K songs is not a problem, if you can load/unload them fast, and if the navigation system is based on the same great click-wheel. As for its size, it is possible to make it smaller. If you compare the new click-wheel with the old 3G iPod's scroll-wheel, you will notice that the latter is a little smaller, still, it's very usable.

So, I'm hoping, 2GB Flash iPod micro - $149, 6GB HD iPod mini - $249. And of course, the 60GB colour-screen iPod - $499 :D

[wrldwzrd89]

I DID relize that, my point was the XM receiver would be taking up room in the iPod( I'm sorry but they can't tuck away a satelite receiver in a menu) and most people that just went out and spent $500 on an iPod are not going to want to spend $20 a month on crappy radio! And if you fully read my post you would see that I said I would have to pay to use the service not the iPod itself.
I guess I misunderstood you. I was thinking that the OPTION for XM services would be tucked away in a menu - I wasn't considering the hardware side of things. If you consider that the current smallest XM receiver is bigger than the current iPod, there's no way XM and iPod would meet right now.

[Mainyehc]

Two, 3, or 4 slots for small, standard memory cards. Let's say two. The key here is the unit can be cheap because it has no flash in it, yet you can say it has a max capacity of 4GB, 8GB, or whatever the max capacity of the cards can be.

Apple would NEVER do this... What about the iTunes synchronization simplicity?? This would totally ruin that!! You would have to *phisically* manage your music!! Even worse, you could eventually end up with duplicate files in the same library... Baaaaad idea... I could use an iPod micro with only ONE CF or SD slot. It would be akin to using a Sony HiMD player. Multiple libraries, which you can switch as desired. Now that would be kind of "retro", as far as the "carry your whole library in your pocket" philosophy is concerned, but who cares (some people can't already fit their whole libraries even in their 40GB iPods!!)! It would beat the cr*p out of Sony's HiMD and all those "dingy" flash players out there.

I used an ATRAC3 Sony MD recorder (YES, only 74min in a 74min disc), and had 32 MD's which I carryed around in three "small" boxes. I had to record them one at a time, at 1X SPEED! I inserted the discs' and tracks' names manually, CHARACTER BY CHARACTER! And I was happy with that system.

To get my very own iPod was like seeing the light. However, I wouldn't go with anything more complicated than the MD/HiMD system. And to have multiple cards plugged at the same time *would* be more complicated, IMHO. And it would also mean another gap, more seams, etc.

I could imagine an iPod with a small gap below the dock connector, it wouldn't look all that weird and ugly; I still can't understand what's the big deal with gaps anyway. Too many seams and mold lines (remember the Cube ;) ) look ugly, but not gaps. I have one gap in the top right side, one in the bottom, and another in the back of my iMac G5 and the thing looks great all the same :rolleyes: However, keep in mind that "the thing looks great" because it has ONLY the necessary gaps and seams; no more, no less. Just like an iPod: stereo minijack, click-wheel, hold switch, dock connector, and back cover/top and bottom covers (on the mini). Just one more gap wouldn't totally ruin its appearence.

As for the battery cover... Hmmmm, as much as I'd like to easily remove my iPod's battery when it eventually dies, I still prefer having to pry it open. It's risky, but I'm preety careful with gadgets, and it's one less seam to have in its already scratched surface :eek:

[izzle22]

Lets just hope Apple comes out with the 60 gig iPod on Tuesday! :D

[Mainyehc]

Yes, I realize Apple's overall revenue increased 37% and that's great but do you realize 43% of hardware revenue was from the iPod? It was an easy 43% too and that's what worries me. Producing an iPod is much cheaper and easier than a PowerBook or a PowerMac. They have already separated the hardware divisions into Macintosh vs iPod. They may feel they can take the easy route with the iPod while letting the Macintosh division languish. Why put the time, money and effort into PowerBooks, PowerMacs and iBooks when they can just crank out iPods? Personally I think we are starting to see signs of this. Where does this leave Mac users? This would most certainly not be a good thing.

Oh, do shut up with all this nonsense... I think it's time people stop with this Mac vs. iPod whining. As long as Mac sales don't go down, the Mac line keeps getting consistent updates, and QC doesn't decrease below acceptable levels (YES, I have a defective buzzing PSU and I'm not happy with it, still, I know Apple is replacing them), everything will be fine. Do you think it was EASY to design the new iMac G5? However, it's here and has been extremely well received by the press. My only concern right now is that Apple's marketing on their hardware offerings, both present and future (G5 eMac? G5 PowerBook? or will they use Freescale's Dual Core G4?...) may become so much more efficient than it used to be that IBM can't meet up the G5 chip demand. Apple has learned a lot from their iPod marketing campaigns, so I think we should have reasons to be concerned with the good ol' "demand outstripping supply" issue. :rolleyes:

It seems you're suggesting that an "anti-halo" effect, when everyone else is expecting an iPod halo-effect. That, of course, doesn't make any sense! And if the iPod is easier to engineer than a Mac, therefore, it shouldn't eat much into Mac R&D, that's the way I see it. There's more, the original 1G and 2G iPods have contributed with its great looks and design concept for this new gorgeous machine I'm using now... (it's not just pure marketing, that clear plastic border makes it REALLY look like a giant iPod).

And for that Mac-division-languishing thing... It's true that Apple didn't meet SJ's 3GHz G5 promise... Or was it IBM's fault, because they didn't meet THEIR promise in the first place?... Hmmm... It would be nice if there was more than one company producing 64-bit PowerPC chips, you know, just in case ;) I may be a recent switcher, but I sort of understand what happened to Apple in the mid-90's, with Motorola. We don't want that happening again, do we?

Anyway, if history repeats itself, it won't be the iPod's fault. Is the iPod eating R&D resources like, say, the Newton? Even if it is, the profits are HUGE. Hooray for the iPod, it's a great cash cow! Do people think that the same thing that happened to the Mac will happen to the iPod? I surely hope not, and don't honestly believe that the humongous marketshare that Apple has will suddendly go "puff!" because of M$ jumping to the market. People are fed up with M$ products, and in this particular case a lot of them do know there's another option.

Besides, M$-compatible players are still somewhat "uncool", and even if they become cool one day (I must confess, that Zen micro thingy looks good enough for me), Apple, being still in the lead as far as coolness is concerned, has a great advantage. And you know, competition stimulates the leaders to strive for having the best products in the market, and I hope Apple reacts accordingly to its competition... Let's just hope... :o

[Yvan256]

After giving this a little thought, I'm thinking that a secure way to market these new flash-iPods will be not to market them at all!

They won't even have to mention the word "Flash", just say they've made smaller and more affordable versions of the iPod mini.

Yeah, but people would find out anyway simply by comparing battery life ("what do you mean, your iPod mini 1GB plays for over 30 hours? My 4GB barely gets 12 hours!").

The smaller size vs longer battery time could even be a selling point, IMO.

[Poff]

Apple would NEVER do this... What about the iTunes synchronization simplicity?? This would totally ruin that!! You would have to *phisically* manage your music!! Even worse, you could eventually end up with duplicate files in the same library... Baaaaad idea..

So.. basically, what you're saying is that iPod micro users would have to do the same thing that iPod mini users have to do? Many people with minis have more than 4GB of music. You can choose to synchronice certain playlists and manage the process easily.

Yeah, but people would find out anyway simply by comparing battery life ("what do you mean, your iPod mini 1GB plays for over 30 hours? My 4GB barely gets 12 hours!").

The smaller size vs longer battery time could even be a selling point, IMO.

I don't mean that they will hide it, just not make a big fuzz about it. But, of course, they couldn't write about hard-drives in the 1GB minis.

[Vader]

I don't think there will be a flash iPod, flash memory just costs too much. If there ever is one, it would be in a couple of years.

[LaMerVipere]

C'moooooon 100 dollar iPod! :)

[corywoolf]

I don't think there will be a flash iPod, flash memory just costs too much. If there ever is one, it would be in a couple of years.


flash can be found for a lot less then you think!!!! check this out...

SanDisk 1GB Cruzer = $50.96 :eek: :eek:

go to kevinrose.com for more info.

[corywoolf]

i could see a $99 ipod micro with a 1 GB flash drive

like i said above, you can get a 1 gb of flash for $50, So they wouldn't make a large profit, but it would pay off in the end by the # of people using the music store at least! :) :rolleyes:



pardon my retardism: its actually $80, kevinrose.com made it look like it was $50

[Poff]

i could see a $99 ipod micro with a 1 GB flash drive

like i said above, you can get a 1 gb of flash for $50, So they wouldn't make a large profit, but it would pay off in the end by the # of people using the music store at least! :) :rolleyes:

But then there's the aspect of quality. Apple needs high quality flash, they don't want their players to break. I refer to my calculation somewhere above. Apple has a high profit margin. Isn't it like 50% of production cost on regular iPods, and somewhat less on minis? If they just removed their hd's without adding another storage medium, I'm guessing $99 could be a valid price-point. However then there's flash on top of that..?

Remember Apples costs on the iPod is not just parts. It is labour, design costs (yes, they spent big $$ designing the Pod aswell.), storage, electricity...

[gekko513]

i could see a $99 ipod micro with a 1 GB flash drive

like i said above, you can get a 1 gb of flash for $50, So they wouldn't make a large profit, but it would pay off in the end by the # of people using the music store at least! :) :rolleyes:



pardon my retardism: its actually $80, kevinrose.com made it look like it was $50
OK, so we're back up at a minimum of $149 for the 1GB iPod mini, although being a pessimist, I still think it'll be more like $199. I don't remember Apple ever having the cheapest player with a particular capacity, and I see nothing to indicate that it should happen now. And like I said the Creative players at 1GB are around $179-$189.

(Wow, I'm a 6502, I haven't even heard of that processor before. Is it the Mac counterpart of the 8086?)

[gekko513]

If Apple do reveal a flash based iPod, who do you guys think they'll buy the memory from? I hear Intel makes flash memory, maybe Apple will use Intel memory, that would certainly enrage some Mac people :D

[Poff]

If Apple do reveal a flash based iPod, who do you guys think they'll buy the memory from? I hear Intel makes flash memory, maybe Apple will use Intel memory, that would certainly enrage some Mac people :D

:D

Who makes the flash-memory (skip-memory) they are using in their iPods?


(with that 6502 I'm guessing you can get your own profile avatar you lucky norwegian!)

[scottkle]

I DID relize that, my point was the XM receiver would be taking up room in the iPod( I'm sorry but they can't tuck away a satelite receiver in a menu) and most people that just went out and spent $500 on an iPod are not going to want to spend $20 a month on crappy radio! And if you fully read my post you would see that I said I would have to pay to use the service not the iPod itself.

I'm not a fan of people who post who don't do their homework. $20 a month for crappy radio? Get real. It's the best radio and it's $9.99 a month tops. With an iPod, it would obviously cost less. And, there are people (GASP!) who have XM already and an iPod (GASP AGAIN!) and they'd pay less with a multi-receiver discount.

You, izzle, wouldn't have to use the crappy radio.

And unfortunately, as much as I admire Apple, I don't think it's smart enough to join with XM. I don't think it will see the future benefits. It's probably as close-minded as you are, which is sad. But, one can dream.

[MacinDoc]

OK, so we're back up at a minimum of $149 for the 1GB iPod mini, although being a pessimist, I still think it'll be more like $199. I don't remember Apple ever having the cheapest player with a particular capacity, and I see nothing to indicate that it should happen now. And like I said the Creative players at 1GB are around $179-$189.

(Wow, I'm a 6502, I haven't even heard of that processor before. Is it the Mac counterpart of the 8086?)
$149 for a 512 MB iPod Flash, $199 for 1 GB.

BTW, the 6502 has a great significance for Apple fans, being the processor on which the Apple and Apple II computers were built. For a more complete listing of the many computers and consoles that were built with the 6502, try here (http://www.geocities.com/oneelkruns/65machines.html).

[snahabed]

It is as if you people are willfully ignoring 20 years of Apple history.

Apple will not put in a satellite radio in an iPod.

Apple will not release an iPod Micro.

What Apple MIGHT do is alter the iPod Mini to use more efficient and/or cheaper memory. Jobs' stated goal was to get the price of the iPods down while maintaining a healthy profit margin. With iPods selling so well, why on Earth would any normal capitalism company start diluting its line with cheap $99 flash crap?

I think the next step for Apple is to update the Mini to maybe have a 5GB hard drive and try to get the price down to $199.

[TWinbrook46636]

How about an AM/FM tuner with HD Radio (http://www.ibiquity.com/hdradio/index.htm) compatability? It's still in the early stages but you can't beat the price.

[Mike Teezie]

It is as if you people are willfully ignoring 20 years of Apple history.

Apple will not put in a satellite radio in an iPod.

Apple will not release an iPod Micro.

What Apple MIGHT do is alter the iPod Mini to use more efficient and/or cheaper memory. Jobs' stated goal was to get the price of the iPods down while maintaining a healthy profit margin. With iPods selling so well, why on Earth would any normal capitalism company start diluting its line with cheap $99 flash crap?

I think the next step for Apple is to update the Mini to maybe have a 5GB hard drive and try to get the price down to $199.

Amen to all the above! I might take one of the rumored U2 iPods though....
:cool:

[Porchland]

iPod mini 4GB - $249
iPod mini 1GB - $199
iPod mini 512MB - $149


Nope. If that happens -- and if the 60-gig iPod is added at $499 as expected -- Apple would have SIX different price points for the iPod. No way.

I'll say it again: Apple can barely keep the iPod mini on the shelf. It was announced only nine months ago and has only had mass availability for the last four or five months. It MIGHT get a refresh, and there MIGHT be a flash-based little brother, but I would be very surprised to see Apple go any smaller than 1GB.

[Tommy Wasabi]

I tend to agree with previous posts that it's not going to be this massive annoucement.

Best guess - just a black limited edition ipod with some U2 tunes
Wishful thinking - 60 G Color for 499 - reality: 60G 4G (non-color)
Awe Inspiring - xPod (XML Radio and an iPOD) - reality - iTunes supporting streaming radio where you hear a track and you can buy it.

That's just my 2 cents - I could be wrong.

[BoRegardless]

Remember when Kodak used to make film?
Times are a-changing. Smart companies adapt to meet the evolving marketplace, and the evolving world, for that matter. Trust me, it's a good thing. :cool:

Think off what you could do when the iPod has 100 gigs of HD with 802.11 & BlueTooth connectivity, and some cool new software!

It is JUST a matter of price. Nothing more, as far as building it.

The question is whether those other software features will get techsuckers like me to plunk down $499 for it to be cool (& hopefully more efficient).

Why shouldn't you keep all your key data on your DPod, so you can log in to any Mac (& dare I say any Nix flavor & PC) and go ahead with your work wirelessly pulling files off the DPod? Why shouldn't your cellphone pull data off the DPod, and download files to the DPod?

All the iPod is basically is a data storage and retrieval device, and there is no reason it can not be expanded in many many ways to benefit existing people, let alone new uses coming down the pike.

If I can imagine these in a minute or two, think of how far Apple has already taken prototypes inside their 'black room'. Opps...

[g4tom]

In Sundays paper here in the Chicago area, Fry's Electronics has a 1 gig compact flash card on sale for 49 dollars. If Apple ordered a million of them at a pop, why couldn't they get them for 30 dollars a piece! Maybe cheaper!

[dejo]

It is as if you people are willfully ignoring 20 years of Apple history.

Apple will not put in a satellite radio in an iPod.

Apple will not release an iPod Micro.

What Apple MIGHT do is alter the iPod Mini to use more efficient and/or cheaper memory. Jobs' stated goal was to get the price of the iPods down while maintaining a healthy profit margin. With iPods selling so well, why on Earth would any normal capitalism company start diluting its line with cheap $99 flash crap?

I think the next step for Apple is to update the Mini to maybe have a 5GB hard drive and try to get the price down to $199.

How, specifically, does Apple's history support your conclusion that they will not put in a satellite radio in an iPod or release an iPod Micro?

[Tacitus]

It is as if you people are willfully ignoring 20 years of Apple history.

Apple will not release an iPod Micro.

...............With iPods selling so well, why on Earth would any normal capitalism company start diluting its line with cheap $99 flash crap?


I think people are missing something here. What if the Flash Pod and the U2 special edition were one and the same? Suppose Apple made a micro flash player that was only available to pop stars and the U2 was the first of many. These would be sold by the bands at concerts or through fan clubs at something like $99 and could have the band's latest CD preloaded. The price would be within "pocket-money" range for teenagers who could not afford a full blown iPod and would get them hooked on AAC and the iTunes music store.

There could be other versions different in only colour and logo that would be sold only by the bands and not directly by Apple. If only so many were made of each version they could even turn into collectors items.

Advantage: get them hooked into AAC early. There would be enough space on one to get them to fill it up at the iTunes store, and when it's full the obvious place to go is to the iPod mini or one of the others which will inevitably fall in price as the market matures.

Think different.

Tacitus

[iGary]

Flash.iPod.Not.Happening.

The end. :rolleyes:

[~Shard~]

In Sundays paper here in the Chicago area, Fry's Electronics has a 1 gig compact flash card on sale for 49 dollars. If Apple ordered a million of them at a pop, why couldn't they get them for 30 dollars a piece! Maybe cheaper!

Just because Apple can do something doesn't mean they should or will.

Not gonna happen. :cool:

[iGary]

Just because Apple can do something doesn't mean they should or will.

Not gonna happen. :cool:

Steve has said so many bad things about flash players. A flash-based player would go against everything the iPod is. Just agreeing with you.

[verces]

This is for all those who do not want to accept that fact that Apple is a company, and companies evolve.

You can't just look at what its done for the past 20 years and base your assumptions to what its going to do in the next 20 years. Thats like saying since we've been using tradional cameras for the past 20 years, we won't be using digital cameras for the next 20 years. Technology changes and companies change. Do you honestly think Apple's simply going to keep the way it's always been? Don't you understand that Microsoft is not just a software company anymore? Can't you see that Starbucks is no longer just a coffee shop? Sony is no longer just a walkman, video cassette player making company. Why do you think Samsung went into the Auto industry? Times change.

Its not like Apple's trying to bring out a fridge, (although that would be infinitely cool..), they're just adding another model to their current ones.......they've already brought out the MP3 player......which doesn't quite suit the company's name anyway (Apple Computer Inc.)....and they've done well in it. Its highly ridiculous to think that when they've done so well, they'll just sit back and let everybody else catch up.

Jobs wants the rest of the market share of 30% of the MP3 market, and he wants it all. Its more than possible. Just over the holiday season, with a price like that, they can sell a lot of iPod mini-micros (or whatever you want to dub it), and its going to be a very Merry Christmas for Jobs and Apple. Just imagine....2,000,000 sold, profit = $50,000,000 to 100,000,000. Very very nice. Take on the lower end of the market, but keeping that barrier up at the same time with the not-so-damn-cheap-better-cough-up-some-money price. This maintains iPod brand image and value. Don't want the street beggar with an iPod, it will kill demand.

iPod micro or mini, they're bringing this new thing. 1GB going for $149. Period.

[zelmo]

...Its not like Apple's trying to bring out a fridge, (although that would be infinitely cool..)....

Fridge...cool....I get it! :)

1GB mini $139
and/or
2GB mini $179

my credit card is ready and waiting, Apple

[Diatribe]

If Apple brings out a 6GB iPod mini I will be buying one tomorrow. I don't need all of my stuff with me but as of right now my playlists occupy just over 5GB.

[Wonder Boy]

Apple is locking out a whole segment of users from the iPod experience.

right, it's a privledge to own an ipod :D :eek:

or that's what apple wants you to think. curse them and there elitist attitude

[Tulse]

Apart from its general coolness factor and beautiful industrial design, the one key feature that made the iPod successful over earlier digital music players was its capacity. This is true even for the iPod mini -- there are plenty of players as small or smaller, but no real competition in that size as far as capacity.

I may be wrong, but I really can't see Apple going to a yet-smaller capacity player (and yet-smaller margins). Just as Apple has repeatedly refused to compete in the bottom-end commoditized PC market segment, I think it will avoid the bargain-basement end of the digital player market as well.

Despite claiming that it's "for the rest of us", Apple has never been about cheap -- it has been about value. Apple pushes new tech down the price curve, but it doesn't use old tech, or reduction in features, to drop prices.

As far as partnering with XM, unless there are hooks into iTMS (and it's hard to see how that would work on the iPod, unless it would download the song when synced), I can't see Steve doing it.

[johnnyjibbs]

I'm afraid to say it, but since the iPod is in such a dominant position at the top of the market, Apple doesn't need to do much to improve it at the moment. It's just like Tesco in the UK being the top supermarket by far - they don't need to offer good payback rates on their loyalty card or "refund and replace" offers for bad goods.

The iPod's style and status all adds to that. Its iconic status (helped by all the stars and celebs having one) makes people who have any other player feel they've got second best. I freely admit that an iPod is out of my price range. The only reason I'm getting one is because the cram and jam offer enabled me to get a 20GB 4G iPod for £70 (instead of £220) with my brother's iBook purchase. Likewise, he got his iPod for cheap when I got my PowerBook under a similar promotion last year. A cheap iPod could jepadise all this. Then there's the fact that Apple still has to be able to make any flash based one profitable.

[izzle22]

I'm not a fan of people who post who don't do their homework. $20 a month for crappy radio? Get real. It's the best radio and it's $9.99 a month tops. With an iPod, it would obviously cost less. And, there are people (GASP!) who have XM already and an iPod (GASP AGAIN!) and they'd pay less with a multi-receiver discount.

You, izzle, wouldn't have to use the crappy radio.

And unfortunately, as much as I admire Apple, I don't think it's smart enough to join with XM. I don't think it will see the future benefits. It's probably as close-minded as you are, which is sad. But, one can dream.

Well GASP YOU! $20.00 or $10.00 who cares it's still extra cash just to use ALL the features of a never going to happen iPod. And while you are at it why don't you ask for a phone in the iPod(GASP!) or maybe cable tV(GASP! AGAIN) Whatever. I've done my homework! maybe you should do yours before you even think Apple can fit a satelite receiver in an iPod(GASP! ONCE AGAIN) and as far as me being closed minded, I'm just old enough to be realistic, and your how old? 12 maybe(GASP! 1 More Time for my new FAN)

[Yvan256]

Nope. If that happens -- and if the 60-gig iPod is added at $499 as expected -- Apple would have SIX different price points for the iPod. No way.

Nope, that only means Apple would have three different price points for the iPod (20GB, 40GB and 60GB), and three different price points for the iPod mini (1GB, 2GB, 4GB).

Because if you want to put the iPod and iPod mini in the same group, then start yelling about how Apple *currently has* SIX different price points for their laptops (iBook + PowerBook).

I'll say it again: Apple can barely keep the iPod mini on the shelf. It was announced only nine months ago and has only had mass availability for the last four or five months. It MIGHT get a refresh, and there MIGHT be a flash-based little brother, but I would be very surprised to see Apple go any smaller than 1GB.

But aren't the rumors about availability based on the scarcity of the 4GB HD? If they can produce the rest of the iPod mini in mass quantity, adding a 1GB Flash iPod mini to the lineup (same internals, same casing, same everyhing) would be a very fast "to-market" time (before Xmas) and would completely over-sell all the other flash players (except the crummy 128MB ones that sell for 50-75$US).

Last point: Apple, where's my miniBook? :D

[Yvan256]

Steve has said so many bad things about flash players. A flash-based player would go against everything the iPod is. Just agreeing with you.

But also note he only spoke badly about the flash players because of their low capacity.

How much do you want to bet that when they made their survey about the quantity of musics people have (which led to the creation of the iPod mini with "only 4GB"), a large group could still use a 1GB Flash iPod mini?

I'm still sticking with the 1GB Flash iPod mini at 129$~149$US. Steve *did* say they wanted to be able to lower the iPod price. That would be one way to do it (and 1GB is still "250 songs in your pocket" at 4MB each, or "25 CDs in your pocket" at an average of 10 songs per CD). It would also make a very strong "upsell" since for less than twice the price you'd get four times the storage (1GB iPod mini for 129$~149$US or 4GB iPod mini for 249$US...)

And at 129$US, they would completely *own* the market and get people hooked to the AAC format (and ITMS, if available). Apple wants (and needs) to own that market, or else they'll lose to WMA (which would be a repeat of MacOS vs Windows all over again).

[zelmo]

I'm afraid to say it, but since the iPod is in such a dominant position at the top of the market, Apple doesn't need to do much to improve it at the moment. It's just like Tesco in the UK being the top supermarket by far - they don't need to offer good payback rates on their loyalty card or "refund and replace" offers for bad goods.

The iPod's style and status all adds to that. Its iconic status (helped by all the stars and celebs having one) makes people who have any other player feel they've got second best. I freely admit that an iPod is out of my price range. The only reason I'm getting one is because the cram and jam offer enabled me to get a 20GB 4G iPod for £70 (instead of £220) with my brother's iBook purchase. Likewise, he got his iPod for cheap when I got my PowerBook under a similar promotion last year. A cheap iPod could jepadise all this. Then there's the fact that Apple still has to be able to make any flash based one profitable.

The iPod IS in a dominant position here, but the digital player market is far from mature. Apple would be foolish to think that they will continue to dominate without doing anything to secure the rest of the market as it develops. By that I mean the people who don't really need a $250 iPod mini now, but want to get a small (inexpensive) player because they are tired of replacing cheap CD players every year, or for whatever other reason (there are many good ones). Someone pointed out earlier in this thread that whichever DRM/file format someone starts life with is very likely to be the format they stick with down the road. A very strong point, and one that Apple simply cannot ignore if they want to be a long-term player here. If people can't purchase iTMS songs to play on their 512MB player now, what are the odd's that they will just abandon their purchased music to switch to iPod in a year or two? There is a huge market burgeoning out there (that the iPod helped create), and Apple doesn't provide a low cost entry into it. Lots of other people do, though. Apple may not have a flash drive iPod tomorrow, or anytime soon, but if they are smart they will have a sub-$200 player available to capture people early on. Sub-$150 would be better.

[Yvan256]

... if they are smart they will have a sub-$200 player available to capture people early on. Sub-$150 would be better.

I agree with your whole post, just wanted to comment on the price a bit.

Nintendo GameBoy Advance SP: 79$US
Nintendo Gamecube: 99$US
Sony Playstation 2: 149$US
Microsoft XBox: 149$US

If Apple are really smart, they'll price it sub-150$US indeed. Or else people are faced with the "PS2, Xbox or iPod micro" choice. At 129$US, the choice is easier to make ("20$US less"). As far as Nintendo's prices, well, people who want a Nintendo are like people who want a Mac (In fact, Apple and Nintendo are really alike, as far as companies go).

And even if Apple only breaks even at 129$US, they should still do it (to get more people on the AAC side).

[ioinc]

I beg to differ:

http://www.macrumors.com/pages/2004/10/20041013172731.shtml


This was not done with $800 computers

[sinisterdesign]

...This is true even for the iPod mini -- there are plenty of players as small or smaller, but no real competition in that size as far as capacity.

...Just as Apple has repeatedly refused to compete in the bottom-end commoditized PC market segment, I think it will avoid the bargain-basement end of the digital player market as well.

...Apple pushes new tech down the price curve, but it doesn't use old tech, or reduction in features, to drop prices.

As far as partnering with XM, unless there are hooks into iTMS..., I can't see Steve doing it.

true, true, true, true.

apple has always had a "you get what you pay for" kind of attitude (even when we were paying more for what we got). it would make sense to make a cheap flash player IF they're doing it to make AAC the dominant format, but they haven't really pushed that to my knowledge. hmm, i'm very interested how they could make a cheap player and then justify it.

XM? just don't see it. apple's music store is online, not broadcast. unless there was a feature of a button you could click to earmark a song you heard on XM to purchase from iTMS later, i don't see where the crossover would be.

now the color 60GB?? my VISA is ready & waiting...

[sinisterdesign]

I agree with your whole post, just wanted to comment on the price a bit.

Nintendo GameBoy Advance SP: 79$US
Nintendo Gamecube: 99$US
Sony Playstation 2: 149$US
Microsoft XBox: 149$US

If Apple are really smart, they'll price it sub-150$US indeed. Or else people are faced with the "PS2, Xbox or iPod micro" choice.

maybe, but those are all OLD technologies. i could get an Atari 2600 pretty cheap on ebay, but i would rather drop some extra $ on the Xbox. my Xbox was $400 when i bought it. seems steep almost 3 years later, but you pay for new technology.

a 1 or 2GB flash player is new tech. that memory is still pretty costly. don't get me wrong, if Apple comes out w/ a flash player, i think $125-$150 is a fair price, but kind of hard to compare a brand new product's price w/ an already dated gamecube.

[zelmo]

I agree with your whole post, just wanted to comment on the price a bit.

Nintendo GameBoy Advance SP: 79$US
Nintendo Gamecube: 99$US
Sony Playstation 2: 149$US
Microsoft XBox: 149$US

If Apple are really smart, they'll price it sub-150$US indeed. Or else people are faced with the "PS2, Xbox or iPod micro" choice. At 129$US, the choice is easier to make ("20$US less"). As far as Nintendo's prices, well, people who want a Nintendo are like people who want a Mac (In fact, Apple and Nintendo are really alike, as far as companies go).

And even if Apple only breaks even at 129$US, they should still do it (to get more people on the AAC side).

I recall reading about a study that determined that $199 was a price point at which the typical consumer would entrtain an impulse purchase. Prices higher require more reflection and planning. The console sales of the past couple of rounds ( first with Saturn, PlayStation, N64, then again with Dreamcast, PS2, Xbox, Gamecube) sure bear this out. Once the price breaks below $200, sales really take off and the market is penetrated beyond the leading edge consumer. Apple needs to get there to stake their place. Sure, lower is better for the consumer, but Apple has always been about maximum dollar for maximum quality. They don't NEED to go much below $199 unless competition forces them there, so they won't.

[jch200]

Holy cow, Sony just launched in Europe today, a 512 mb flash-based walkman for 200 euros, and a 1 gig for 240 euros (about $300 US). At least these supposedly play mp3 files, but holy cow, that seems a little spendy doesn't it? If you ask me though, this adds some validity to the possibility of Apple releasing a flash ipod. And if Apple could get the price down to $149 for a 1 gig they would absolutely humiliate Sony........um again, I mean.

[johnnyjibbs]

Holy cow, Sony just launched in Europe today, a 512 mb flash-based walkman for 200 euros, and a 1 gig for 240 euros (about $300 US). At least these supposedly play mp3 files, but holy cow, that seems a little spendy doesn't it? If you ask me though, this adds some validity to the possibility of Apple releasing a flash ipod. And if Apple could get the price down to $149 for a 1 gig they would absolutely humiliate Sony........um again, I mean.
In general, Sony always overprices.. Again it's partly to do with the strength of the brand (like I was saying about iPod a little bit earlier). The problem for Sony is they charge too much more than their brand dictates in my opinion...

[jch200]

That's true. But you can't get a much stronger brand in Digital Music Players right now than "iPod". Man, we'll just have to see what happens. Could be interesting if Apple does it though.

[lewdvig]

I have owned a bunch of these and iPod is the best. Just got a 4G 40 (my thirds iPod) on the weekend - it is sitting un-opened till I hear what is happening tomorrow.

The new Sony HD walkman is nice. 20 gb and way smaller than a 4G ipod - WAY smaller (close to a mini in size IMO). It costs more than the iPod 20 but comes with all the accessories - remote, dock, etc.

But it only plays stupid Atrac3 - good thing for Apple. And the interface sux. And there are buttons everywhere... including a strange 'use internal battery' switch???

Why just a 6 GB mini? I wants a 15 gb mini (three platter drive). I need top carry at least 11 Gb of tunes.

Flash iPod would rule too - BATTERY LIFE! :D

I wonder if HP iPod Tatoos are a tell... maybe the same tech is used for U2 iPod? If the U2 website graphics are used on the U2 iPod I sure hope I can get one. That would be cool.

Whatever Apple does tomorrow will be cool - it is in their nature.

[lewdvig]

Nope, that only means Apple would have three different price points for the iPod (20GB, 40GB and 60GB), and three different price points for the iPod mini (1GB, 2GB, 4GB).

Because if you want to put the iPod and iPod mini in the same group, then start yelling about how Apple *currently has* SIX different price points for their laptops (iBook + PowerBook).



But aren't the rumors about availability based on the scarcity of the 4GB HD? If they can produce the rest of the iPod mini in mass quantity, adding a 1GB Flash iPod mini to the lineup (same internals, same casing, same everyhing) would be a very fast "to-market" time (before Xmas) and would completely over-sell all the other flash players (except the crummy 128MB ones that sell for 50-75$US).

Last point: Apple, where's my miniBook? :D


The drives in these little MP3 players is usually just a CF card HD (like the Creative). I suspect it would take ZERO negineering to add a flash drive. 1 and 2 GB CF cards are DIRT cheap and FAST.

[agentmouthwash]

read the article here:
http://www.apple-x.net/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=1162&mode=thread&order=1&thold=0

It's going to feature 5.1 surround sound at 160 kbps. The secret feature on 4th generation ipods is that the Audio Out is similar to the one found on Airport Express - it is also an optical audio out.

YAY!

[lewdvig]

IMO:

mini 6 GB - $249
mini 4 GB - $199
mini 2 GB - $179 (smaller but 30 hour battery life)
mini 1 GB - $129

20 - 299 (U2 SE same price but only 10,000 of them)
40 - 399
60 - 499

[lewdvig]

read the article here:
http://www.apple-x.net/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=1162&mode=thread&order=1&thold=0

It's going to feature 5.1 surround sound at 160 kbps. The secret feature on 4th generation ipods is that the Audio Out is similar to the one found on Airport Express - it is also an optical audio out.

YAY!

My old company QSND just did a deal with VOD to supply surround audio technology. VOD are serious about pushing this. Very cool.

[jch200]

Wow, tomorrow could be VERY interesting!

[SwiftLives]

Part of the 'cool' factor with the ipod is that not everyone can afford one, and therefore not everyone has one. If Apple were to introduce a $149 version, it would simply canibalize sales of the higher priced ipods. Why save up to buy a $249 ipod when you can save $100 and still say you have an ipod? It would kill the cool factor and the prestige of the product.

Apple seems to be using a similar model to their computers - stay out of the low-end of the business. The high-end is where the profit is.

I could see them introducing a 6GB mini for $249, and the price of the remaining stock of 4GBs would fall to $199. But I don't see Apple introducing a sub $200 model.

[wrldwzrd89]

read the article here:
http://www.apple-x.net/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=1162&mode=thread&order=1&thold=0

It's going to feature 5.1 surround sound at 160 kbps. The secret feature on 4th generation ipods is that the Audio Out is similar to the one found on Airport Express - it is also an optical audio out.

YAY!
Maybe I should wait until tomorrow before ripping any more music then. I'd LOVE to try out this new aacPlus codec. AAC is pretty darn good - if aacPlus is significantly better, I'll switch to it.