the Electric North Korea Acid Test

[zimv20]

with the missile defense shield proceeding as planned (http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/04/science/04MISS.html?8dpc), i started thinking about the whole "backing down from terrorists" thing.

so i propose a question:
A date is announced for when the first anti-missile missiles will go to active status in Alaska. North Korea announces that, should the US indeed go active, they will launch a nuclear attack at the US. should the US call North Korea's bluff and activate the system?

[mactastic]

Of course you do. You can't give in to terrorists, that just makes them stronger. Besides, with the Left coast nuked, all the hippies and communists and liberal elites won't be voting anytime soon and this country can return to the values it was founded upon.

<Insert quote thereby proving point just made>

:eek:

[SlyHunter]

with the missile defense shield proceeding as planned (http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/04/science/04MISS.html?8dpc), i started thinking about the whole "backing down from terrorists" thing.

so i propose a question:
A date is announced for when the first anti-missile missiles will go to active status in Alaska. North Korea announces that, should the US indeed go active, they will launch a nuclear attack at the US. should the US call North Korea's bluff and activate the system?

They would be begging us to do a first strike against them.

[Lyle]

so i propose a question:
A date is announced for when the first anti-missile missiles will go to active status in Alaska. North Korea announces that, should the US indeed go active, they will launch a nuclear attack at the US. should the US call North Korea's bluff and activate the system?
You forgot to give us your answer to the question. ;)

[zimv20]

You forgot to give us your answer to the question. ;)
no i didn't :-)

[blackfox]

First of all, I love the title of this thread...as far as the question posed though, I don't see the events posited as happening as they seem unconnected...the US already has nuclear-strike capabilities, the missle-defence shield is for repelling attacks against the US...so I fail to see why N Korea would feel more threatened by the system being on-line, as the threat of missle attack on them would remain unchanged. If N Korea (or someone else) felt the US might be more reckless w/ nuclear attacks if they are able to prevent retalliation, they would attack BEFORE the system was online...unless they were willing to gamble that the system was flawed...
All kind of seems irrelevant, as I feel the system would never work very well, and ignores the fact that the future of warefare will probably not involve ICBM attacks, but "dirty bombs" smuggled in, bio and chemical weapons, guerilla tactics etc. Waste of money.

[zimv20]

First of all, I love the title of this thread
thank you


...as far as the question posed though, I don't see the events posited as happening as they seem unconnected...
yeah, i get what you're saying. it plays more into the kinds of brinkmanship games and bluffs that KIJ seems fond of playing. after all, if the system works, we shouldn't be worried about a solo shot from NK, eh?

more insidious would be a NK threat to launch strikes against seoul and/or tokyo. would the US still play the game if it's not its own cities at stake?

[SlyHunter]

First of all, I love the title of this thread...as far as the question posed though, I don't see the events posited as happening as they seem unconnected...the US already has nuclear-strike capabilities, the missle-defence shield is for repelling attacks against the US...so I fail to see why N Korea would feel more threatened by the system being on-line, as the threat of missle attack on them would remain unchanged. If N Korea (or someone else) felt the US might be more reckless w/ nuclear attacks if they are able to prevent retalliation, they would attack BEFORE the system was online...unless they were willing to gamble that the system was flawed...
All kind of seems irrelevant, as I feel the system would never work very well, and ignores the fact that the future of warefare will probably not involve ICBM attacks, but "dirty bombs" smuggled in, bio and chemical weapons, guerilla tactics etc. Waste of money.
What I would be worried about if I lived somewhere else other than the US is those missiles targeting us that we knock down, where would they land. Could we be fast enough and shoot them down as they are firing out of the attackers silo or would it be over some other countries back yard?

[blackfox]

What I would be worried about if I lived somewhere else other than the US is those missiles targeting us that we knock down, where would they land. Could we be fast enough and shoot them down as they are firing out of the attackers silo or would it be over some other countries back yard?
As I understand it, any missles would be intercepted over ocean...but since they would explode at considerable altitude, it doesn't seem to make much difference (although there could be radiation carried around by air/wind currents)...

[blackfox]

thank you


yeah, i get what you're saying. it plays more into the kinds of brinkmanship games and bluffs that KIJ seems fond of playing. after all, if the system works, we shouldn't be worried about a solo shot from NK, eh?

more insidious would be a NK threat to launch strikes against seoul and/or tokyo. would the US still play the game if it's not its own cities at stake?
That is a good question, I guess the US could license its' tech to these countries...also, bear in mind that I imagine it will take a while to have a up-and-running MD system in place (if ever) and KIJ may be out of the picture by then, possibly taking N Korea w/him. The world does not stop to wait for MD systems...

[skunk]

Could we be fast enough and shoot them down as they are firing out of the attackers silo or would it be over some other countries back yard?
You can't shoot them down before they're up! :rolleyes:

[pooky]

What I would be worried about if I lived somewhere else other than the US is those missiles targeting us that we knock down, where would they land. Could we be fast enough and shoot them down as they are firing out of the attackers silo or would it be over some other countries back yard?

I think the impact would be fairly small. Keep in mind that a nuclear missile contains a relatively small (<10 lbs) amount of radioactive plutonium/uranium. Even detonating the weapon would only spread large chunks over a small area, which is easily cleaned up by a guy with low-level protection and a geiger counter. Both materials are (IIRC) alpha emitters, so fairly harmless unless ingested, meaning casualty count would be close to 0.

Compare that to the effect of the bomb detonating, where dozens of radioactive species, including numerous gamma emitters, are spread over hundreds of miles in pieces as small as a dust grain. The particles are easily inhaled or ingested, can be incorporated into crops and into wildlife, and cause significant damage once they're inside the body.