Democrat wins So. Dakota Congressional Seat

[Sayhey]

Final results (http://www.sdsos.gov/results/statwide.shtml) are in for the special election to fill House seat of former Rep. Janklow (convicted of vehicular manslaughter.)

U S HOUSE (votes) %
(R) DIEDRICH LARRY (128722) 49
(D) HERSETH STEPHANIE (131491) 51


It is the second special election won by Democrats and lowers the number need to take back the House to eleven.

I'd love to see my Representative become the first woman Speaker of the House in November.
:D

[mactastic]

Dang, I was just collecting all the links and text to post this myself. You beat me to it by minutes. Actually it's a good thing I refreshed my browser window just in case instead of just posting it!

Highlights from the AP article:
Democrats looking ahead to November got a bounce with the victory of Stephanie Herseth in a special election, marking the party's second straight congressional triumph and snatching a House seat in a heavily GOP-leaning state.

Herseth, a member of one of the state's most distinguished political families, narrowly defeated Republican Larry Diedrich in Tuesday's poll. She will immediately fill the seat of Bill Janklow, who resigned his seat before he went to jail over a deadly auto accident.
The race was closely watched by national parties eager to pick up momentum ahead of the fall campaign.

The Republican and Democratic House campaign committees waged media blitzes in South Dakota, pouring $2 million into TV ads in a rural state of 765,000 people. In March, Vice President Dick Cheney campaigned for Diedrich in South Dakota. The parties also sent waves of supporters to the state to mobilize voters.

Herseth's win coincided with Democratic claims that a national tide is running their way. Recent polling shows support slumping for President Bush as well as for the Republican majority in the House.

Although if it wasn't for the 'liberal media' I'm sure this wouldn't be news at all. :p

[Stelliform]

....

[blackfox]

But by such a narrow margin, the victory really isn't a divine mandate for the Dems.
interesting choice of words, considering our sitting President also won by the slimmest of margins, yet seemingly felt that he is/was following a divine mandate himself...

Sorry to get off topic...as far as this election goes, I am always happy to see the Dem. regain ground in the Senate (or House)...we shall see if this is part of a trend...

[Sayhey]

But by such a narrow margin, the victory really isn't a divine mandate for the Dems.

No, not a mandate of any kind, but possible a reflection of a growing trend that gives Democrats an advantage going into the November Congressional races. Remember this is South Dakota - one of the "reddest" of red states. Both the Kentucky race and this one are in areas that Republicans should win. Now, perhaps you can tell me is there going to be a third special election in your own home state? What happens to Billy Tauzin's seat?

[mactastic]

But by such a narrow margin, the victory really isn't a divine mandate for the Dems.

Hell, that's a landslide by SD standards. Go look up the margin of victory in the Johnson/Thune race there. It was like 500 votes or so.

Besides, I thought Dubya proved you didn't need a landslide to claim a mandate for extremism? :D

[Stelliform]

Now, perhaps you can tell me is there going to be a third special election in your own home state? What happens to Billy Tauzin's seat?

Heh, this is Louisiana, it is way to early to tell. We have to wait and see who is the best at slinging mud. ;) Our last govenor's election really wasn't decided until the last week. You have to remember that Louisiana is a conservative democrat state. So a republican has just a good of a shot as a democrat.

[blackfox]

No, not a mandate of any kind, but possible a reflection of a growing trend that gives Democrats an advantage going into the November Congressional races. Remember this is South Dakota - one of the "reddest" of red states. Both the Kentucky race and this one are in areas that Republicans should win. Now, perhaps you can tell me is there going to be a third special election in your own home state? What happens to Billy Tauzin's seat?
I am confused...S. Dakota is a "red" state?...don't they have Daschle(D) and Johnson(D) in US Senate? and now Herseth(D) in the house?...what am I missing here?

[Sayhey]

I am confused...S. Dakota is a "red" state?...don't they have Daschle(D) and Johnson(D) in US Senate? and now Herseth(D) in the house?...what am I missing here?

Bush carried the state in 2000 by a 60% - 38% margin. Since 1940 the Democrats have carried the state in a Presidential election only once, the 1964 Johnson landslide. There is something like a 40,000 registered voter advantage for the Republicans in the state. Only one statewide office (State Commissioner for School and Public Lands) on the state level is held by a Democrat. Both Houses of the Legislature have a two-thirds Republican majority. Not withstanding the importance of the two Senators and the new Congresswoman, this is a "red" state with huge advantages for Republican candidates. All of which makes Stephanie Herseth's victory all the more impressive.

[blackfox]

Bush carried the state in 2000 by a 60% - 38% margin. Since 1940 the Democrats have carried the state in a Presidential election only once, the 1964 Johnson landslide. There is something like a 40,000 registered voter advantage for the Republicans in the state. Only one statewide office (State Commissioner for School and Public Lands) on the state level is held by a Democrat. Both Houses of the Legislature have a two-thirds Republican majority. Not withstanding the importance of the two Senators and the new Congresswoman, this is a "red" state with huge advantages for Republican candidates. All of which makes Stephanie Herseth's victory all the more impressive.
Thankyou, Sahey...out of curiousity, however, why has S. Dakota has voted for Democratic members of US Congress, but for Republican Governorship and State legislature (not to mention Presidents)...I know that the Democrats of the State have a slightly different version of Democratic affiliation to deal with the particulars of their home states (more traditionally conservative), so why the poor showing in State office?

[numediaman]

Thankyou, Sahey...out of curiousity, however, why has S. Dakota has voted for Democratic members of US Congress, but for Republican Governorship and State legislature (not to mention Presidents)...I know that the Democrats of the State have a slightly different version of Democratic affiliation to deal with the particulars of their home states (more traditionally conservative), so why the poor showing in State office?

I think it is the same reason California has had so many Republicans as governor. In order to win, the Republicans put up pro-choice candidates and run to the middle.

In SD, Herseth said she supported the war in Iraq and would extend "most" of the tax cuts. The Republicans tried to call her on the tax cut issue, but had a hard time arguing that the people of South Dakota needed to defend the tax cuts for the wealthiest. Herseth will have to continue to run to the middle if she is to win in November -- which I doubt she will (but you never know).

[Sayhey]

Thankyou, Sahey...out of curiousity, however, why has S. Dakota has voted for Democratic members of US Congress, but for Republican Governorship and State legislature (not to mention Presidents)...I know that the Democrats of the State have a slightly different version of Democratic affiliation to deal with the particulars of their home states (more traditionally conservative), so why the poor showing in State office?

Sorry, I can't really answer your question. I do know that South Dakota has a progressive tradition as well as all the movement toward conservatism. The old Farmer-Labor party that had a very strong following in neighboring Minnesota, also had roots in the Dakotas. The election of George McGovern for many years is a testament of the strength of that tradition. I can only guess that the effect of years of right wing organizing on cultural issues have undercut the Democratic Party in the state.

[blackfox]

An effort is enough...thanks Numedia and Sahey...

BTW Sahey, might you be responding to my bloated post over in the other thread soon? I am all a twitter with anticipation...

[Sayhey]

BTW Sahey, might you be responding to my bloated post over in the other thread soon? I am all a twitter with anticipation...

LOL, ok, I'm on it.

[DakotaGuy]

Hey there, I am from SD and I was so happy to see that Stephanie Herseth won the seat. I am deployed to Iraq with my Guard unit, but I have watched the race. I am a registered Democrat, and orginally from the western side (west of the Missouri River) of the state. We have been sending Democrats to Washington for years and a big reason for this is because people in SD feel that they can get more with Democrats. What I mean by that is the Dems are good at bringing the "pork" home. Remember we are a small state with only 3 reps in Congress, without having elected Reps that will put up a fight for us, we would get nothing. I don't see Herseth having a problem winning again in November. I think it might be harder for Tom Daschle. I say this because our state is also notarious for voting out people who have been in too long. The best thing or the worse thing you can be in South Dakota is an incumbant. Being an incumbant is a good thing for someone like Stephanie Herseth, but Daschle is going for his 4 term in the Senate and along with his time in the US House has been around since 1978. Daschle is still popular however and in the end people may not want to loose the pull he has for bringing home the bacon.

The other thing is that SD is a VERY divided state. The west side including the second largest city, Rapid City, is VERY Republican and aligns itself with Wyoming, Montana, Colorado. I know, Dems don't even run in local elections there anymore. It is totally a one party system west of the Missouri. One party is not as good as some may think, it has caused a lot of scandal and bad policies going unchecked, but no matter what happens or how bad a canidate is, west river will not vote for anyone except someone with an "R" behind their title. The only part of Western SD that is VERY democratic is of course the Indian Reservations. The Eastern Side of the state, which is the most populated, has more of a "populist" idea of government. There are more Democrats and more Republicans that will cross party lines to vote for who they feel will do the best job. If you can carry the vote in the Eastern side and on the Reservation, you will win. Daschle, Johnson and Herseth were all elected because Eastern SD and the Reservations put them in.

[Sayhey]

Hey there, I am from SD and I was so happy to see that Stephanie Herseth won the seat. I am deployed to Iraq with my Guard unit, but I have watched the race. I am a registered Democrat, and orginally from the western side (west of the Missouri River) of the state. We have been sending Democrats to Washington for years and a big reason for this is because people in SD feel that they can get more with Democrats. What I mean by that is the Dems are good at bringing the "pork" home. Remember we are a small state with only 3 reps in Congress, without having elected Reps that will put up a fight for us, we would get nothing. I don't see Herseth having a problem winning again in November. I think it might be harder for Tom Daschle. I say this because our state is also notarious for voting out people who have been in too long. The best thing or the worse thing you can be in South Dakota is an incumbant. Being an incumbant is a good thing for someone like Stephanie Herseth, but Daschle is going for his 4 term in the Senate and along with his time in the US House has been around since 1978. Daschle is still popular however and in the end people may not want to loose the pull he has for bringing home the bacon.

The other thing is that SD is a VERY divided state. The west side including the second largest city, Rapid City, is VERY Republican and aligns itself with Wyoming, Montana, Colorado. I know, Dems don't even run in local elections there anymore. It is totally a one party system west of the Missouri. One party is not as good as some may think, it has caused a lot of scandal and bad policies going unchecked, but no matter what happens or how bad a canidate is, west river will not vote for anyone except someone with an "R" behind their title. The only part of Western SD that is VERY democratic is of course the Indian Reservations. The Eastern Side of the state, which is the most populated, has more of a "populist" idea of government. There are more Democrats and more Republicans that will cross party lines to vote for who they feel will do the best job. If you can carry the vote in the Eastern side and on the Reservation, you will win. Daschle, Johnson and Herseth were all elected because Eastern SD and the Reservations put them in.

Thanks for the insights. I had read about the East/West divide in South Dakota politics, but I never knew it was so stark. I'm hoping your prediction for Herseth's chances in November will come true. Keep your head down over there and come back safe and sound, ok?