iTunes first week predictions

[asif786]

Hey,

I dont know if Apple are going to make a press release after the first week of iTunes in europe telling us how many songs have been downloaded. But, I'm guessing steve will give it a mention at WWDC.

So, how many songs do you think will have been downloaded from the iTunes europe (well, uk, fr & de) music store by the 28th June?

My prediction - well, us Mac fans have been downloading like mad (i think) so my guess around the 5 million mark. Oh, and whoever gets it spot on, I'll give them $20 via paypal or upgrade their macrumors subscription for them..ok?

So, to reiterate, my prediciton is 5 million songs by WWDC

Let the guessing begin!

[7on]

I'm going to say 500,000
;P

[wowser]

350,000

(how on earth can we guess exactly right?)

[Savage Henry]

I reckon it will be approaching 250,000 per country; and Steve will compare with the figures of the first few weeks of Napster/Coke, by bigging up an exceptionally mediocre performance.

I'm not expecting great things. These forums have hadly been ringing with download excitement. :(

[DGFan]

1.6 million by June 28th

Why?
It just feels like a nice, round number.

[asif786]

350,000

(how on earth can we guess exactly right?)


We'll say to the nearest 50,000 then, OK?

My prediction was probably waaay out, but hey:)

[asif786]

they just showed the wild postings ad in between the england match. there's tens of millions of people watching that so maybe my guess will not be soo far off after all..

[Royal Pineapple]

2.5 million

[wowser]

damn. i think mine might have been a teensy bit pesimistic :(

[PlaceofDis]

ill say 1.2 million

[russed]

lets say 1,805,456 i think that should be about right!

[sonofslim]

a billion. no, TEN BILLION!!

[ChrisFromCanada]

750, 000 EDIT: someone already said this my new guess: 650,000

[sethypoo]

3.5 Million songs.

[wowser]

a billion. no, TEN BILLION!!

clearly the most accurate so far ! ;)

[bousozoku]

475386.5 should be about right. I'm sure no one guessed that. I really don't expect that people will go quite that wild. Besides, there aren't that many people in comparison to the U.S.A., right?

[cheekyspanky]

I'm going to say 2,800,000.

My figuring for this, Apple sold about 200,000 :confused: iPods here at christmas, so add those to all the others bought before and after as well and I'd guess there's 500,000 iPods in the UK, now half of those probably aren't aware/can't be bothered/download off kazaa etc, so lets say 250,000 users.

Now each person buys 3 - 4 songs on average and we have a total somewhere near the million mark - but that seems a bit obvious of a guess so I've gone for 925,000 in the UK.

Now add France and Germany..well I have no idea how many iPod owners there are but there's 60 million people in France and 80 million in Germany, so working roughly to the same figures as for the UK I'm going to guess 2,800,000 overall!

Now, lets wait and see how wrong I am! :)

[7on]

meh, mine number is based off of the whole "macfanatic" syndrome. There has to be relatively few Mac fans in Europe (smaller than the market share here in the US I'd say) and I'd say they'd be the only ones to buy multiple songs. Most people will buy one song to test it out probably. Oh well. It's confusing.

[GrannySmith_G5]

175,000.

[jbembe]

I'll go with 1.2 million.

[hothmeister]

Expect it to be a damn sight less than Apple will ever admit they predicted due to the fact that choice sucks and they haven't signed on all the independent labels.
People are going to visit it a soon find out they can't download what they want and probably not bother coming back.
Put it at 200,000/country max.

Also, the customer service is shoddy. Apple still haven't explained why i'm supposed to have paid for and downloaded 2 tracks that can't be found on my iBook and won't let me download again.

Seems they rushed it out due to the competition and unless it gets sorted out will bomb!

[Winston Smith]

4,500,250

The choice is not very up to date even from he majors but I reckon a lot of people will have been waiting to use it and will fill gaps in their collections.

[Savage Henry]

4,500,250

The choice is not very up to date even from he majors but I reckon a lot of people will have been waiting to use it and will fill gaps in their collections.


Yeah, maybe so Mr Smith, but four and a half million?? :eek:

When the top ten list the other day had 5 tracks by The Darkness it made me wonder how successful all this has been. I can't think that they will had 650,000 downloads per day, and most of them are tracks by The Darkness.

Indie absense or not, it just doesn't make sense.

[liketom]

well i can say for a fact there is 43 cos thats what i have downloaded so far !

i reackon near ish 750-800k total

tom

[Jack White]

i'd be suprised if it was over a million.

[jbembe]

First week = 800,000 for iTMS Europe. A bit low on your guesses folks! ;)

http://www.macworld.co.uk/news/index.cfm?NewsID=8982

[DGFan]

First week = 800,000 for iTMS Europe. A bit low on your guesses folks! ;)

http://www.macworld.co.uk/news/index.cfm?NewsID=8982

Mine's holding up pretty well:

1.6 million by the start of WWDC on June 28th.

That's approximately 800k a week.
:D

[PlaceofDis]

I'll go with 1.2 million.

hey thats my guess! LoL

[jbembe]

hey thats my guess! LoL

Sorry, I didn't see it before I made the bet. I'll change it to 1.9 million, how's that?!!

[DGFan]

It looks like I win
:D

http://www.azcentral.com/ent/music/articles/0707itunes07.html

My guess was the closest - or is this like the Price is Right where you can't go over??