New data cut rates for many nations
By John Donnelly, Globe Staff *|* June 20, 2004
PRETORIA -- Estimates of the number of people with the AIDS virus have been dramatically overstated in many countries because of errors in statistical models and a possible undetected decline in the pandemic, according to new data and specialists on the disease.
In many nations, analysts are cutting the estimates of HIV prevalence by half or more.
Rwanda, for instance, a new United Nations estimate due out next month will put HIV prevalence at about 5 percent, according to Rwandan officials, down from more than 11 percent four years ago. In Haiti, a recent unpublished study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has found HIV prevalence was less than 3 percent, compared with the UN's most recent estimate of 6 percent. And the numbers in India are coming under increasing scrutiny because surveys in AIDS hot spots are indicating a prevalence rate that is much lower than the national average.
Even with lower estimates, health specialists agree that AIDS remains the most dangerous pandemic in the developing world. In particular, it threatens to ravage societies in southern Africa, and throughout the continent the disease has killed millions in the prime of their lives.
http://www.boston.com/news/world/articles/2004/06/20/estimates_on_hiv_called_too_high/
By John Donnelly, Globe Staff *|* June 20, 2004
PRETORIA -- Estimates of the number of people with the AIDS virus have been dramatically overstated in many countries because of errors in statistical models and a possible undetected decline in the pandemic, according to new data and specialists on the disease.
In many nations, analysts are cutting the estimates of HIV prevalence by half or more.
Rwanda, for instance, a new United Nations estimate due out next month will put HIV prevalence at about 5 percent, according to Rwandan officials, down from more than 11 percent four years ago. In Haiti, a recent unpublished study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has found HIV prevalence was less than 3 percent, compared with the UN's most recent estimate of 6 percent. And the numbers in India are coming under increasing scrutiny because surveys in AIDS hot spots are indicating a prevalence rate that is much lower than the national average.
Even with lower estimates, health specialists agree that AIDS remains the most dangerous pandemic in the developing world. In particular, it threatens to ravage societies in southern Africa, and throughout the continent the disease has killed millions in the prime of their lives.
http://www.boston.com/news/world/articles/2004/06/20/estimates_on_hiv_called_too_high/
