Post - June Iraq...come together...or fall-apart?

[blackfox]

Watching BBC hardtalk today (which I enjoy, thanks Skunk), I watched the June 17th interview with Peter Galbraith, former Ambassador to Crotia, discussing the future of Iraq post-June 30th. In particular, it discussed the potential break-up of Iraq along Ethnic Lines, and the potential (or wisdom) of trying to forcibly hold Iraq together as a single Nation...a Federation of some sort was suggested as the best possible solution, along the lines of the US and Canada (perhaps the Swiss, though not in the interview). It also briefly discussed the ability of an Iraqi Legal System to try War Criminals from the Hussein years...

Personally, I found Galbraiths comments very plausible and astute. Comments, predictions about the Future of Iraq, and what seems most pragmatic? Or opinions of the interview? I shall discuss my opinions later in the thread (assuming anyone replies and/or if they're warranted)

here is the link:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/hardtalk/3819661.stm

[wwworry]

the brits drew the lines with their own interest in mind.

now we hear the Isrealis are in the kurdish parts training an army
http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/?040628fa_fact

[blackfox]

the brits drew the lines with their own interest in mind.

now we hear the Isrealis are in the kurdish parts training an army
http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/?040628fa_fact
With regards to the British, well yes, of course...part of the relevance to the pushing for a federation approach to the reconstituting of Iraq, is that prior to Western Intervention, the area that is now Iraq, was based upon such a system (albeit somewhat informal)...It seems unlikely that the Kurds will be willing to give up any measure of autonomy they now enjoy to a new Central Government, especially one that will most likely be Religious in nature...anyway, the programme does a better job of explaining...I can see boundary disputes being a major point of contention here....not aware of the Isreali training...will get back to you on that...

[zimv20]

i'm only about 1/3 of the way through the new yorker article, but, wow, it looks like balance of power has really been screwed up in the M.E.

turkey making new alliances w/ syria and iran? whoops!

now the countries w/ a kurdish "problem" are aligning against israel and facing a newly militarized kurdish population. i wonder how many years of war and genocide _this_ will bring.

to the question of the thread: fall apart. i'm wondering if the chance to avoid civil war has completely disappeared.

[blackfox]

After reading the New Yorker article (thanks wworry), I find the premise laid out very discouraging...god, what a clusterf***...the last thing the US needs is to have to become involved in a situation analgous to the break-up of Yugoslavia AND try to fight terrorism. With this in mind, in terms of the Iraqi invasion being effective on the WOT (from a scale of one to ten), I think we were a -7....What a mess we have created for ourselves and the Region...

...might add more later...I need a drink...