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View Full Version : According to Bill Gates DVDs will be obsolete in 10 years


MacBytes
Jul 13, 2004, 08:22 PM
Category: Opinion/Interviews
Link: According to Bill Gates DVDs will be obsolete in 10 years (http://www.macbytes.com/link.php?sid=20040713212241)
Posted on MacBytes.com (http://www.macbytes.com)

Approved by Mudbug

ITR 81
Jul 13, 2004, 08:46 PM
I doubt it.
If anything a new ver. of DVD will come out thats more scratch resistant, hold 2-4 times more data, and maybe smaller.

But I doubt DVD will die anytime soon. I mean hell VHS is still around...though it maybe gone in the next 5 yrs.

Lancetx
Jul 13, 2004, 09:07 PM
Bill Gates also said once upon a time that 640KB of memory is all anyone could ever need although he denies it to this day. This is yet another quote he'll surely be denying 10 years from now as well... :rolleyes:

montex
Jul 13, 2004, 09:23 PM
I think Bill Gates must have seen something more revolutionary than the DVD in order for him to have made this statement. Too bad he couldn't clue the rest of us into what that could be.

Maybe he's seen those crystal storage devices they used on Babylon 5 to store data. Or suppose he's got a Vorlon locked up in his basement and he's torturing it to get new technology... Bill Gates - in league with the Shadows!

dizastor
Jul 13, 2004, 09:27 PM
Bill Gates said it so it must be true.
Maybe if he said Blu-Ray wil be obsolete in 10 years this could be interesting.

Stella
Jul 13, 2004, 09:46 PM
microsoft, not so long ago, thought the Internet was just a fad, which will soon die...

^ Retards^

DVDs will still be with us in 10 years time.. in some form or another.

Category: Opinion/Interviews
Link: According to Bill Gates DVDs will be obsolete in 10 years (http://www.macbytes.com/link.php?sid=20040713212241)
Posted on MacBytes.com (http://www.macbytes.com)

Approved by Mudbug

iMeowbot
Jul 13, 2004, 09:59 PM
Ah, okay, it's the same old idea that given a choice between physical media and pay-per-view, people will flock to the latter. Sure, it would be nice if every film ever released was available over the cable, at any time. It's not going to work that way.

Studios love exclusivity. Disney like to trot out Fantasia etc. every decade or so, then pull it again, so that they can build up hype on old properties. The same happens with Very Special reworked Star Wars releases. The music industry does it too, with super duper improved Dark Side of the Moon reissues, Beatles remixes, "lost" demo recordings from all sorts of places, and so on.

That stuff can be hyped becasue consumers can grab a copy and have it "forever" if they hurry. Try to do the same with PPV without recording ability, and you're back to the old-style broadcast model. Missed it this time around? Big deal, it'll be on again next year.

dashiel
Jul 13, 2004, 10:37 PM
yeah bill, i read negroponte's being digital too... ten years ago.

MacFan782040
Jul 13, 2004, 11:23 PM
He's an idiot.

nuckinfutz
Jul 13, 2004, 11:34 PM
LOL...not another "vision" from the richest man in the world with none.

While I agree that in 10 years it will be much easier to view what you want and when. I don't see the popularity of a storage format like DVD being obsolete because of it. People need a way to store data and then move it around. Just because you have a big pipe to the Internet and can download video doesn't mean you will have any resemblence of liberal rights in usage.

Remember Microsoft is the DRM King of computing. They "want" you to envision a world in which you care not about storing the data locally or to portable media. They want you to depend on MS or approved providers to meet your every need. DVD might be obsolete depending on how well Blue laser tech goes but seeing as how we have a looming format war I doubt consumers will be too eager to jump in until its settled thus proving Billy boy wrong yet again.

OhEsTen
Jul 13, 2004, 11:51 PM
Remember Microsoft is the DRM King of computing. They "want" you to envision a world in which you care not about storing the data locally or to portable media. They want you to depend on MS or approved providers to meet your every need.

...well said.

sjk
Jul 14, 2004, 12:33 AM
Remember Microsoft is the DRM King of computing. They "want" you to envision a world in which you care not about storing the data locally or to portable media. They want you to depend on MS or approved providers to meet your every need.Is Gates getting desperate to create a future M$ cash cow because he realizes Windows might be losing its grip?

Your LazyPus avatar always cracks me up. Where'd you get it?

ebtek2
Jul 14, 2004, 02:20 AM
Well it seems this boat is about to capsize with everyone on 1 side. How about a different opinion, one from someone who doesn't think that everything out of Bill Gates mouth is blasphemy. If Steve Jobs was quoted as saying this, I have a feeling that most of you would take a 180 degree turn on this issue.

The fact of the matter is this, the writing is on the wall. With the advent of the iTMS, and its wide popularity, it is obvious that downloading media for storage on hard drives is the future. So if you follow that thinking, in 10 years time or so, DVDs wont be usefull. Id imagine mini 50tb or so servers sitting next to our TVs/Computers, that store all of our digital media, that we have downloaded from the likes of a iTMS or iMVS (iMovieVideoStore). And if we needed to transfer this media with us, using a simple thumbdrive (10 years from now, they should be 200-400gbs).

You can mention VHS, Tapes, Vinyl, etc. all day long, sure people still use them, but they are a small (and getting smaller) portion of consumers. Also I wouldn't hold my breath on making DVDs/CDs more scratch resistant. Its far more likely that computer technology will grow, then plastics.

Sabenth
Jul 14, 2004, 03:24 AM
Blue Rai !!!!!! one of many intresting formats woot woot yup dvds dead so is blue tooth firewire and that other thing that people use'b because in 10 years time we will be using os 15 that uses the new usable mind controll systems that are in the system using a blue somthing or other transmiter thats placed on the side of the head so that data is transmited back and forth yayay....


JACK ME IN IAM IN IT FOR THE RIDE OF MY LIFE!!!
god dam matrix got a lot to answer for...

kettle
Jul 14, 2004, 04:40 AM
...buying everything or losing everything is not conducive to a happy soul.


The fact of the matter is this, the writing is on the wall. With the advent of the iTMS, and its wide popularity, it is obvious that downloading media for storage on hard drives is the future. So if you follow that thinking, in 10 years time or so, DVDs wont be usefull. Id imagine mini 50tb or so servers sitting next to our TVs/Computers, that store all of our digital media, that we have downloaded from the likes of a iTMS or iMVS (iMovieVideoStore). And if we needed to transfer this media with us, using a simple thumbdrive (10 years from now, they should be 200-400gbs).

People like "things", little jewel box like things to satisfy the hoarding magpie in us all, the ones who don't, are just on top of their cluttered urges. We like to present eachother with encapsulated gifts. There is something empty about a gift of music being just added to our mass storage, nothing to unwrap or hold in our hands.
We, the tool makers, make things to be useful in more ways than just tin opening, we are all artists who need to express giving and receiving, communicating.

I don't want all my precious things on a server where if one goes they all go. I want small things that I can access outside of the computerised feeding machine that the digital hub is looking like. I don't want to have to suckle at my digital nipple to get my moments. I want to put some of my favourite things next to my favourite chair where I experience them in my space, not just in a directory of zeros and ones where I happen to have sole privileges. I want a computer to be the tool to make things, I make things happen, not I have to be plugged in before I review what I made happen.

I want little pieces of data to escape the predetermined, I want humans to spread their existence in the real world, I want to find one off lumps of data that no one has duplicated, data that holds the character and expression of its creator.

The iPod is now the new precious thing because each one has been filled in an individual way, it's value is not in the cost of replacing the tracks but in the person who chose to assemble the tracks in that one little pod. I think the same quantity and selection of music would loose its value on a centrally located storage device in the home. A backup for your iPod would be put somewhere far more secure than a central storage device.

Savage Henry
Jul 14, 2004, 04:48 AM
His credibility will go long before the DVD format.

This boy is a fool.

thelarryparis
Jul 14, 2004, 08:26 AM
My parents just got a DVD player. Sucks to be them.

1macker1
Jul 14, 2004, 11:39 AM
Everyone laughed when people said DVDs would replace VHS. Everyone laughed when people said cd's will replace cassettes. WHo knows what type of technical advances we will see in the next 10 years. Nano technology will make something useful, sooner or later.

AppleJustWorks
Jul 14, 2004, 12:08 PM
Bill Gates also said "I see no advantage to the graphical user-interface"


LOL


idiot...

mrsebastian
Jul 14, 2004, 01:15 PM
uh, no. formats may change and dvds will hold more data, perhaps be half the their current size, but will be there in one fashion or another. regardless if we get all our media files over the net in 10 years, people will still want to store those files and that will most likely be on dvd. considering we haven't even gotten over the hump of hdtv, what in the world is bill talking about?!

shamino
Jul 15, 2004, 04:21 PM
Asked what home entertainment would like in the future, Mr Gates said that DVD technology would be "obsolete in 10 years at the latest. If you consider that nowadays we have to carry around film and music on little silver discs and stick them in the computer, it's ridiculous,"
Quite possibly true. In time the DVD as we know it now probably will be obsolete. It's been around for close to 10 years, and popular for over 5. In another 10, it probably will be replaced by something else.

It's where Bill defines that "something else" that he starts to lose it.
"TV that will simply show what we want to see, when we want to see it. When we get home, the home computer will know who we are from our voice or our face. It will know what we want to watch, our favourite programmes, or what the kids shouldn't be allowed to see."
In other words - replaced with nothing. All media in the world being replaced with streaming (and probably pay-per-view) data over some internet with infinite bandwidth. :rolleyes:

Yeah, right. That experiment has been tried and tried again and again. And the public never likes it enough to be a commercial reality.

I have no doubt that DVDs will go away in the future. Probably more like 20-30 years, not 10, but they will go away. And they will be replaced with some other form of portable high-capacity data storage. Maybe a higher capacity DVD, maybe one with the same capacity at a much smaller size. Maybe something completely different - perhaps flash memory devices or other solid-state storage.

But abandoning local storage? Never it's been possible to do this for music for quite some time now and most people aren't buying into it. All the more so for video, where the bandwidth requirements are much higher and the relative cost of ownership (price/megabyte) is much lower.

themacrobaye
Jul 18, 2004, 01:22 AM
And Gates also said that the only computer that meets current (back then) standards was the Macintosh. And how right he was on that one... but if he thinks people are going to be walking around with Portable Media Devices and spouting 'my TiVo is better than yours", he's got another thing coming... like a SCUD missile into his billion dollar home.

wdlove
Jul 18, 2004, 06:38 PM
So we can just take this prediction with the same importance as all his others as mentioned above. I would imagine that any change to The DVD will first be put into the Mac by Steve Jobs.

Mr. Anderson
Jul 18, 2004, 06:53 PM
So we can just take this prediction with the same importance as all his others as mentioned above. I would imagine that any change to The DVD will first be put into the Mac by Steve Jobs.

that would be a huge assumption - if you'd watched any of the 'standards' adopted by the computer movie and film companies over the past few years, you'd see that its a cut throat business. All are vying for what the users/consumers will buy.

As for being obsolete, sure - but that doesn't mean that they still won't be around. Video tape is obsolete today, but you can find it pretty much anywhere.

As to what's going to come along and replace DVDs as the next big thing, well that's the real question.

D

Artimus
Jul 18, 2004, 08:43 PM
Why are you people so bitter? Bill Gates did a ton for the PC world.

sjk
Jul 18, 2004, 09:44 PM
Bill Gates did a ton for the PC world.And he'd do the PC world a big favor right now buying them Macs. :D

carcher33
Aug 4, 2004, 11:52 PM
Anyone who thinks they can make better predictions then Bill gates is not the brightest. I agree that Microsoft has had its weaknesses, but they do not get the credit from the computer geek world they deserve. Not everyone can understand linux nor has the effort to try (like me). But that doesnít mean that they can use programs like Windows and others compatible with Windows to make it very far in the computer world. If Bill gates says dvdís will be obsolete in 10yrs, I have to agree with him since he knows much more then me as well as anyone reading this.

Brother Michael
Aug 5, 2004, 12:20 AM
I agree with Mr. Gates on this one.

In fact my cousin and I were working on that very same project. Having a Linux based (note: this is where my vision and Mr. Gate's vision differ) Media server in the basement with the ability to mirror to my television. That end result was that you could use the TV to watch movies on the server or listen to music through the stereo. All of it was going to be on the server.

Unfortunatly, due to time contraints we haven't started yet. Only plans at this point...although now almost all my CD's are on my PC in MP3 format :rolleyes:

Mike

LethalWolfe
Aug 5, 2004, 12:43 AM
As for being obsolete, sure - but that doesn't mean that they still won't be around. Video tape is obsolete today, but you can find it pretty much anywhere.


Videotape as a delivery format for a final commerical prodcut to the consumer is, basically, dead. But that is the only place videotape is dead. Videotape isn't going any where any time soon as an acquisition format.


Lethal

wdlove
Aug 5, 2004, 02:24 PM
Why are you people so bitter? Bill Gates did a ton for the PC world.

I'm not bitter about Bill Gates. That would be a waste of my time. He's not a billionaire for nothing.