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MacRumors
Oct 7, 2009, 10:30 AM
http://www.macrumors.com/images/macrumorsthreadlogo.gif (http://www.macrumors.com/iphone/2009/10/07/android-to-surpass-iphone-in-market-share-by-2012/)

Computerworld reports (http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9139026/Android_to_grab_No._2_spot_by_2012_says_Gartner) that research firm Gartner is forecasting significant growth in Google's Android operating system for smart phones, noting that it expects Android to surpass Apple's iPhone to claim the number two spot behind Symbian OS with 14.5% of the global smart phone market by 2012.While the first Android product release, the T-Mobile G1, only won a lukewarm response, Android 1.5 (code-named Cupcake) is well thought-out, Dulaney said. Other expected improvements in Android for its application store and development environment will be "backed by the power of Google's search engine," he said. "Google's other up-and-coming consumer and enterprise products should make[Android] a dominant platform."

And because Android and Google operate in an "integrative and open environment, [they] could easily top ... the singular Apple," he said.

Android will also run on phones from several manufacturers, helping its growth, especially when compared to the iPhone, Dulaney said. In 2010, as many as 40 models of Android devices will ship, and the next OS update, code-named Donut, will ship in the second quarter, Dulaney predicted.The predicted margin is small, however, with Apple predicted to grab 13.7% of the smart phone market in 2012. Both companies are forecasted to take significant share from Symbian, which currently holds approximately 50% market share but is expected to fall to 39% over that time.

Article Link: Android to Surpass iPhone in Market Share by 2012? (http://www.macrumors.com/iphone/2009/10/07/android-to-surpass-iphone-in-market-share-by-2012/)



hanpa
Oct 7, 2009, 10:39 AM
Probably, unless Apple recognizes the competition and responds by:
- Removal of 3g cellular restrictions not technically motivated at least outside of the US
- Allowing at least music apps like Spotify to run in the background
- Improving the app approval process to become more like the Android process
- Flash support in Safari (with an option to disable this)
- SDK that can execute on other platforms like Windows or Linux and that uses a more user-friendly and intuitive language than Objective-C

spillproof
Oct 7, 2009, 10:44 AM
Other expected improvements in Android for its application store and development environment will be "backed by the power of Google's search engine,"

As in web apps?

laprej
Oct 7, 2009, 10:47 AM
I realize that Android is supposed to be awesome, and it is fairly nice having programmed for it in the past. But the openness to which they refer in the article is really a fault in this case and not a benefit.

For example, every phone manufacturer is going to have their own set of features. Some may have cameras, vibration, video playback, etc. With the iPhone, you know exactly what is there and what the device you're targeting can do. You can build better applications to utilize the specific hardware.

Apple takes some heat for having vendor lock-in, but it allows them to release beautiful hardware that just works whether it's phones or computers. It's not Windows code that gives BSODs but third-party drivers most of the time.

Android may end up taking some market share, but I doubt that it will beat the iPhone or Blackberry.

nehunte
Oct 7, 2009, 10:52 AM
Every phone that comes out after the iPhone is supposed to surpass the iPhone by 20**. This is getting old. It took how many years for someone to beat up on Nokia? That's right, it'll be a long time before you see a dent in the iPhone's armor.

I'm going to make a new smartphone next week. It's an iPhone-killer. Guaranteed.

spencers
Oct 7, 2009, 11:01 AM
Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight, a cupcake is going to take down iPhone?

Daphtdazz
Oct 7, 2009, 11:03 AM
I mean, how else can they be coming up with a 2 year prediction to an accuracy of 0.67%?

You just wonder about the people making these claims. What have they done, exactly? Sat down in front of Excel, typed in a few numbers and then just written out the answer without even thinking about it? I suppose we should be thankful that it wasn't:

iPhone: 13.728285919847%
Android: 14.491509184751%

etc.

It seems like a big leap anyway to predict a 7 fold market share increase, let alone think it will beat the iPhone whose momentum seems very strong.

MadGoat
Oct 7, 2009, 11:04 AM
Of course Android might surpass the iPhone. The iPhone is limited to 1 device whereas the Android is spanned over many more devices and will continue to branch out.

The success of the iPhone will not be surpassed by any single device however.

Compile 'em all
Oct 7, 2009, 11:09 AM
- SDK that can execute on other platforms like Windows or Linux and that uses a more user-friendly and intuitive language than Objective-C

This is by far far the most ridiculous request I have ever read.

You want them to use a programming language other than Objective-C?

I don't even know where to start. LOL.

Speedy2
Oct 7, 2009, 11:10 AM
Probably, unless Apple recognizes the competition and responds by:
- Removal of 3g cellular restrictions not technically motivated at least outside of the US
- Allowing at least music apps like Spotify to run in the background
- Improving the app approval process to become more like the Android process
- Flash support in Safari (with an option to disable this)
- SDK that can execute on other platforms like Windows or Linux and that uses a more user-friendly and intuitive language than Objective-C

None of these things play any role for the iPhone market share.
Far more relevant are:
- cheaper low-end models, iPhone Nano (not that likely)
- dropping provider exclusiveness (very likely, already happening: UK, Canada, more to come)

Analysts keep forgetting that Apple doesn't care that much about market share of sold handsets, but more about market share of profit. Thus, it could very well be that Android overtakes iPhone in a few years, given that manufacturers offer cheap phones running Android. If these phones are any good or if they generate much profit: I highly doubt it.

ct2k7
Oct 7, 2009, 11:12 AM
This is by far far the most ridiculous request I have ever read.

You want them to use a programming language other than Objective-C?

I don't even know where to start. LOL.

Erm.. you're being closed minded.

The SDK is limited only to the Apple OS, granted, it relies on hooks, however, you are alienating a hell of a lot of people from developing on the platform.

Chupa Chupa
Oct 7, 2009, 11:22 AM
I'm not 100% sure of Garter's rationalization but it seems to be that there will be 40 different android models available (presumably on different networks). That is really the key. The equation is something like: the sum of all Android phones on multiple networks = the sum of all iPhones on ATT. However, if Apple spreads the iPhone love to Verizon when ATT rolls out LTE it changes the equation dramatically, and reduces Android to the iPhone-haters market. I have to believe Apple sees the trend and will not wait too long to let Android mature before it makes a move to squash it. Apple's just bidding its time watching the ant walk into the trap before it ambushes.

danredwing
Oct 7, 2009, 11:26 AM
I don't mean to be rude here. I would never claim that Android isn't a good, interesting and open platform, but I've used both and will definitely say that the Android Platform is no iPhone. It feels like software in a shell and is missing the elegant integration of software and hardware that Apple and the iPhone are known for.

There may be more of them out there at some point because they are easier to get and work with more carriers and there are more companies making their version, so through competition, the prices will be lower.....sound familiar?

Speedy2
Oct 7, 2009, 11:38 AM
Erm.. you're being closed minded.

The SDK is limited only to the Apple OS, granted, it relies on hooks, however, you are alienating a hell of a lot of people from developing on the platform.

What are you guys talking about?
Didn't Adobe just show a new Flash IDE that generates native iPhone Apps ?

Darth.Titan
Oct 7, 2009, 11:45 AM
Of course Android might surpass the iPhone. The iPhone is limited to 1 device whereas the Android is spanned over many more devices and will continue to branch out.

You, sir have hit the nail on the head.

malohkan
Oct 7, 2009, 11:47 AM
I think the realistic expectation is: "If Apple doesn't make any more changes to the iPhone for the next 10 years, there will be an Android phone to beat it by 2020!!"

I feel like the trend is going to stay the same as it was with the G1. They're like "ooo look at our neat new features!!" Unfortunately, the iPhone/iPod just got those features, only better, just before you launched.

The competition just can't stay ahead, and Apple is going to keep it that way.

Tilpots
Oct 7, 2009, 11:52 AM
Now that Android is coming to Verizon (http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?t=798678) and they will be collaborating on handsets, I have no doubt Android will surpass the iPhone in terms of user numbers. Will it surpass in quality? That remains to be seen...

No1451
Oct 7, 2009, 11:53 AM
Of course Android might surpass the iPhone. The iPhone is limited to 1 device whereas the Android is spanned over many more devices and will continue to branch out.

The success of the iPhone will not be surpassed by any single device however.

Only comment in this thread that has any sort of logic or lack of fanboyism behind it. I agree, 100%, as a platform it definitely has potential since it can be rolled out into 30 different devices while the iPhone is a single product with a single very specific feature set.

dejo
Oct 7, 2009, 11:55 AM
- SDK that can execute on other platforms like Windows or Linux and that uses a more user-friendly and intuitive language than Objective-C
Curious. Why do you think Objective-C is not user-friendly and intuitive?

carmenodie
Oct 7, 2009, 12:02 PM
You notice that Google's stock is way up! As of this writing it is now trading at $507.29 a share and it is 10-7-09 and 12:56pm. Look, Android is going into all these phones like a who** not b/c it is some supper grand OS but to get Google's share prices up. And believe me it will be ad laced up the a**.

So, is this god news for consumers? Hell no!
It is good news for wall street and stock holders.
Android=lots of ads to plague you with.

Povilas
Oct 7, 2009, 12:03 PM
Android is a mobile OS. iPhone is a device. Android is and will be used in many devices by many manufacturers. iPhone is only one device, but if you add iPod Touch which runs the same OS I don't think Android can surpass it by 2012.

slffl
Oct 7, 2009, 12:05 PM
To quote the bit on Jimmy Fallon... 'Who Cares?'

Obviously market share doesn't mean crap as is evident in the OS market.

dandaley
Oct 7, 2009, 12:12 PM
Gartner tries to shape the future of technology with their reports. They are not trying to predict anything. Managers look at these reports and shape their strategy based on them. I have been at companies that "listened" to Gartner to help shape their direction. Sad, but true.

OllyW
Oct 7, 2009, 12:14 PM
One advantage I see Android having over the iPhone is the fact that it has a number of manufacturers releasing new models throughout the year, keeping their phones fresh and up to date and with good availability through multiple operators.

Apple seems to be set on a one update per year cycle. This means they end up having a 3 or 4 month flat period when they don't sell many iPhones because everyone knows a new model is about to be released, followed by a couple of months of madness as everyone scrambles to get the new phone and the supply chain struggles to keep up.

paradox00
Oct 7, 2009, 12:15 PM
None of these things play any role for the iPhone market share.
Far more relevant are:
- cheaper low-end models, iPhone Nano (not that likely)
- dropping provider exclusiveness (very likely, already happening: UK, Canada, more to come)


Completely agree.

charliehustle
Oct 7, 2009, 12:16 PM
None of these things play any role for the iPhone market share.
Far more relevant are:
- cheaper low-end models, iPhone Nano (not that likely)
- dropping provider exclusiveness (very likely, already happening: UK, Canada, more to come)

Analysts keep forgetting that Apple doesn't care that much about market share of sold handsets, but more about market share of profit. Thus, it could very well be that Android overtakes iPhone in a few years, given that manufacturers offer cheap phones running Android. If these phones are any good or if they generate much profit: I highly doubt it.

generally speaking, a company that only makes software (google) has higher profit margins compared to a company that makes hardware and software..(apple)

and it seems like it's possible for google to take over, as they will sell to any phone manufacturer, but apple is stuck with only one device..

now if it's going to be a better phone, thats a different story, this is just market share, and profits..

GenesisST
Oct 7, 2009, 12:18 PM
Curious. Why do you think Objective-C is not user-friendly and intuitive?

Cause it's not. I played with the iPhone SDK for a test app and had to relearn a few things. For example, the + or - in front of a method, which means instance or class method (or vice-versa). I could find the right information (or Google keywords) to get it without a few bouts of swearing.

Then my company got a contract to port an iPhone app to Android. And by port I mean rewrite since we can't share anything from obj-c to Java.

Coming from a C/C++ background, the learning curve was really quick. Plus Google did a relatively good job with its SDK and emulator which work pretty well on both Mac and Windows.

lazyrighteye
Oct 7, 2009, 12:21 PM
The SDK is limited only to the Apple OS, granted, it relies on hooks, however, you are alienating a hell of a lot of people from developing on the platform.

You say that like it's a bad thing.
Don't we already have enough junk in the App Store?
If not, there are now millions of Flash developers eagerly waiting to do their best (worst?).

In most every other scenario, I'm very liberal... very supportive of openness. But when it comes to developing a tool or utility, like a computer, a phone, etc., I very much fall in the category that appreciates Apple's closed system approach over an Open Source approach. The closed approach helps ensure an efficient & consistent user experience. But I'm also a quality over quantity kind of guy - which clearly does not represent everyone.

Ericatomars
Oct 7, 2009, 12:27 PM
yeah that they were also sure that chicago would get the olympics! It didnt happen...

Once android gets a grip on apple and its actually at the point where they could have that chance Apple will change the game! Thats just how it goes... There is a reason why so many people stand behind Apple's products....

Rodimus Prime
Oct 7, 2009, 12:34 PM
I am not surprised by this at all.
There are cracks appearing in the iPhones armor very quickly.

1. It is suck on one network and will not take a chance to go with Verizon.

2. Only one manufactor is going to sting. Android is announced already on 4 different companies phones (Motoral, HTC, Samsung,and Nokia) I have heard rumors of Sony being added to that list as well.

3. Apple very poor and single point app approval process is starting to a lot of problems. When Jail Break stores are kicking off it clearly people want more choices. Hell people Jail break just to get certain apps that apple will not approve or take to long to approve. Compared to google system where the app store is just one of many locations to buy apps.

4. The very limited customization of iPhones OS is very limiting.

I think point 3 is the biggest problem with the iPhone OS and will be what in the long run what will let others over take it.

xwk88
Oct 7, 2009, 12:45 PM
Erm.. you're being closed minded.

The SDK is limited only to the Apple OS, granted, it relies on hooks, however, you are alienating a hell of a lot of people from developing on the platform.

I dont understand what you mean, you want them to make an sdk for people to develop apps for other devices like windows and linux based????? y would they do that that would not help them it might actually hurt them...... and besides I think they're just fine on the developing side seem a heck of a lot of people ar developing since the already have like 70k apps......


on another note u think gartner is taking into consideration that the iphone is soon gonna be on multiple networks and free from at&t that will solve most of its problems since then ATT will be forced to be less greedy and plans will be more competitive more features will be available from a network perspective and the best phone on the market will be even better :D just my two cents....

TedIsraelson
Oct 7, 2009, 12:47 PM
Sounds amazing like the same business model that has been followed by the Mac. A device with OS competing against an OS that will run on many devices. Current Mac market share 5.12% current Windows 92.77% (based on numbers from Market Share) . Does anyone else see this connection?

Speedy2
Oct 7, 2009, 12:50 PM
generally speaking, a company that only makes software (google) has higher profit margins compared to a company that makes hardware and software..(apple)



Depends on what you're selling. How much money is Google really making with those Android licenses and the market place? How much are the handset makers making with Android?

Google MAY have a better margin, but Apple has a much bigger market for sure since they add most of the value.

Speedy2
Oct 7, 2009, 01:04 PM
Sounds amazing like the same business model that has been followed by the Mac. A device with OS competing against an OS that will run on many devices. Current Mac market share 5.12% current Windows 92.77% (based on numbers from Market Share) . Does anyone else see this connection?

Yes. Google tries to be a better Microsoft by providing an _open_ software platform for multiple hardware makers, but they will not replicate MS's success, since MS dominated the OS market from the beginning and knew how to milk it whereas Google was late to a crowded party. Google may offer cheap drinks, but not fancier ones.

computers: MS and Intel take the cream and will do for a long time thanks to their near-unbreakable monopolies, most others are struggling.

mobiles: Nokia TOOK the cream in the past, in the future it will be Nokia, RIMM and Apple. It don't see any chance for Google to make equally big profits here. Android is merely treated as a means to secure their Web monopoly.

MacFly123
Oct 7, 2009, 01:12 PM
All I have to say is EAT IT MICROSOFT! Windows Mobile SUCKS lol :D :p

I love seeing the way things are going for Microsoft. It is like watching a giant passing out about to SLAM and hit the ground collapsed. Always too little too late! :rolleyes:

zacman
Oct 7, 2009, 01:41 PM
Apple already seems to have lost some parts of the European market with the 3GS because they didn't add the features that are frequently used there (like HSUPA, (r)SAP, etc.). For example GFK numbers showed that the Android based HTC Hero outsold the 3GS in Germany.

dashiel
Oct 7, 2009, 01:45 PM
Cause it's not. I played with the iPhone SDK for a test app and had to relearn a few things. For example, the + or - in front of a method, which means instance or class method (or vice-versa). I could find the right information (or Google keywords) to get it without a few bouts of swearing.

Then my company got a contract to port an iPhone app to Android. And by port I mean rewrite since we can't share anything from obj-c to Java.

Coming from a C/C++ background, the learning curve was really quick. Plus Google did a relatively good job with its SDK and emulator which work pretty well on both Mac and Windows.

hmm i've had the opposite experience. coming from an actionscript/javascript background i've been thoroughly impressed with the sdk in particular and obj-c in general. there's definitely a learning curve, but i suspect that would be true going to any real programming language.

jmadlena
Oct 7, 2009, 01:51 PM
Android is gonna take iPhone TO THE GROUND!

It's not a part of your system.

EDIT:

generally speaking, a company that only makes software (google) has higher profit margins compared to a company that makes hardware and software..(apple)

I don't see how Google, who licenses Android for free, has a higher profit margin than Apple, who sells the hardware (at a price), and the software (at a price to iPod touch users). I think Apple has higher margins in that aspect.

Google might have indirect revenue sources due to manufacturers licensing Android (ads, etc), but I don't believe there is any direct revenue. I stand to be corrected.

pik.
Oct 7, 2009, 01:58 PM
if iPhone OS remains to 2 cell phones then YES in the future iPhone will decrease...

it is sure.

Apple must do Phones in 3 price scale...fully unlocked and without the stupid blocks in terms of closed OS.

nagromme
Oct 7, 2009, 02:12 PM
I think point 3 is the biggest problem with the iPhone OS and will be what in the long run what will let others over take it.

Valid points, except you're looking at a micro-niche of power-users, while the iPhone's massive growth comes from a much broader market than that. Android will (and does) take some power-user market share, and I look forward to seeing where it goes.

The big thing though is DEVELOPER share. Apps. Android will run--in different flavors--on a number of different phones, offering choice in screen size, features, hard vs. virtual keys, etc. That sounds great--but will the same APP run on all those flavors? No. The app market will be fragmented among incompatible models. There's no good way out of that--it's one advantage Apple's model will hang on to.

Povilas
Oct 7, 2009, 02:14 PM
Cause it's not. I played with the iPhone SDK for a test app and had to relearn a few things. For example, the + or - in front of a method, which means instance or class method (or vice-versa). I could find the right information (or Google keywords) to get it without a few bouts of swearing.

Then my company got a contract to port an iPhone app to Android. And by port I mean rewrite since we can't share anything from obj-c to Java.

Coming from a C/C++ background, the learning curve was really quick. Plus Google did a relatively good job with its SDK and emulator which work pretty well on both Mac and Windows.

For me Objective-C is user-friendly enough.

jholzner
Oct 7, 2009, 02:15 PM
Cause it's not. I played with the iPhone SDK for a test app and had to relearn a few things. For example, the + or - in front of a method, which means instance or class method (or vice-versa). I could find the right information (or Google keywords) to get it without a few bouts of swearing.

Then my company got a contract to port an iPhone app to Android. And by port I mean rewrite since we can't share anything from obj-c to Java.

Coming from a C/C++ background, the learning curve was really quick. Plus Google did a relatively good job with its SDK and emulator which work pretty well on both Mac and Windows.

What you really meant was easier for you so you don't have to do as much. Judging by the number of apps in the app store it doesn't appear that most developers are worrying to much about it.

Rodimus Prime
Oct 7, 2009, 02:18 PM
Valid points, except you're looking at a micro-niche of power-users, while the iPhone's massive growth comes from a much broader market than that. Android will (and does) take some power-user market share, and I look forward to seeing where it goes.

The big thing though is DEVELOPER share. Apps. Android will run--in different flavors--on a number of different phones, offering choice in screen size, features, hard vs. virtual keys, etc. That sounds great--but will the same APP run on all those flavors? No. The app market will be fragmented among incompatible models. There's no good way out of that--it's one advantage Apple's model will hang on to.

yet all the one advantage the apple model has it killed by the fact that how difficult it is to get an app approved and no way to directly sell it to the consumer.

That is what going to hurt apple in the good devs leaving. The best devs are starting to get fed up with apple system and looking elsewhere.

jmadlena
Oct 7, 2009, 02:22 PM
yet all the one advantage the apple model has it killed by the fact that how difficult it is to get an app approved and no way to directly sell it to the consumer.

That is what going to hurt apple in the good devs leaving. The best devs are starting to get fed up with apple system and looking elsewhere.

You're right, the app numbers really reflect that developers are leaving... only 85,000 apps. Ouch. Just because a few bloggers complain about the process, which I'm sure is frustrating for developers, doesn't mean that's how every dev feels. I just think there is too much incentive for devs to leave the iPhone. Too much money to be made.

I'll believe it when I see a few percent of mid- to upper-sized developers leaving.

happydude
Oct 7, 2009, 02:24 PM
Of course Android might surpass the iPhone. The iPhone is limited to 1 device whereas the Android is spanned over many more devices and will continue to branch out.

The success of the iPhone will not be surpassed by any single device however.

exactly. just as in how macbooks are the highest selling laptop (on universities at least, i think that stands globally) brand but windows operating system far out dominates compared to apple os.

at any rate, apple could stem off this tide by getting off their stupid contract with at&t and open up to all carriers in the u.s. they're doing it in other countries. hopefully here soon.

QCassidy352
Oct 7, 2009, 02:24 PM
no possible way can anyone predict what the smartphone market will look like in 2012. that's an eon in cell phone years.

bruinsrme
Oct 7, 2009, 02:30 PM
Looking at this from my perspective I can see why.
I do not prefer to have the "Steve Jobs phone" staring at me in the face every time I turn the phne on. I prefer to have the appearance of the icons, background, ringtones and whatever else I feel like changing without having to jump through all the hoops of jailbreaking.
If the Android platforms offer a decent distribution channel for their work, a hassle free user interface, a major carrier (ATT or verizon) and music manager well that is what I am currently looking for.
I think such a platfe available prior to June 2010 when I will be ready to change.
So the Android platform already has at least 3 potential customers

cnorth3
Oct 7, 2009, 02:30 PM
yet all the one advantage the apple model has it killed by the fact that how difficult it is to get an app approved and no way to directly sell it to the consumer.

That is what going to hurt apple in the good devs leaving. The best devs are starting to get fed up with apple system and looking elsewhere.

Yeah, it's almost impossible to get an app approved (other than the 70k that have already been approved):rolleyes: And sure, most devs would much rather sell direct than have to put up with all the visibility and market power of the App Store. :rolleyes::rolleyes:

Apple is such a nuisance!

michaellinehan
Oct 7, 2009, 02:40 PM
"it expects Android to surpass Apple's iPhone to claim the number two spot behind Symbian OS with 14.5% of the global smart phone market"

Simplistic example --- If one company has 95% of the market with a free phone and another company has 5% of the market with a $500 phone, who's better off?

Other articles go on and on about Microsoft's massively greater "market share". But with maybe tens times more market share than Apple, MS's market capitalization (worth) is only about 1.4 times as much as Apple.

Market share, as a bare number, is meaningless.

bastiangatten
Oct 7, 2009, 02:49 PM
Ya if apple didn't further the iPhone OS anymore between now and then maybe. But you know they will come up with something great soon anyways. And I don't think apple is seaking to have the most sold product. They just want to have the best product. Look at the Mac Computer. It isn't the most. It's the best!

Povilas
Oct 7, 2009, 02:51 PM
OK, they leave and go where exactly? I can't see it happening. Some bigger developers will offer apps also for other devices, but I think no one is thinking about leaving.

slu
Oct 7, 2009, 02:55 PM
Of course Android might surpass the iPhone. The iPhone is limited to 1 device whereas the Android is spanned over many more devices and will continue to branch out.

The success of the iPhone will not be surpassed by any single device however.

Thank you for your reasonable post.

If you make more models of something, you will most certainly have more market share.

Just like Mac OS X would gain market share if you could install it on any PC.

TraceyS/FL
Oct 7, 2009, 03:12 PM
Apple already seems to have lost some parts of the European market with the 3GS because they didn't add the features that are frequently used there (like HSUPA, (r)SAP, etc.). For example GFK numbers showed that the Android based HTC Hero outsold the 3GS in Germany.

I have no clue if this is true, BUT, this is what Apple needs to deal with. Cell phones are cut-throat, and certain areas demand certain features. If you are going to compete globally and long term, you need to be ready to play ball.

Which means, looking at what is coming from your competitors and matching them with features, not relying on the user experience. And a year is huge in phone life cycle.

Otherwise, give up on the PHONE and concentrate on the Touch... let the phone follow it. A Touch with a phone if you want it.

I don't think we are going to see a drop in data charges anywhere though.... even if it comes to Verizon in the US. Everyone charges mostly the same thing...

ct2k7
Oct 7, 2009, 03:27 PM
What are you guys talking about?
Didn't Adobe just show a new Flash IDE that generates native iPhone Apps ?

Flash in the independant operator here, not the full SDK.

pdjudd
Oct 7, 2009, 03:31 PM
Just like Mac OS X would gain market share if you could install it on any PC.

No, they most likely wouldn't. There is no reason to think that it would - it's conjecture. (http://daringfireball.net/2004/08/parlay)

Rodimus Prime
Oct 7, 2009, 03:43 PM
You're right, the app numbers really reflect that developers are leaving... only 85,000 apps. Ouch. Just because a few bloggers complain about the process, which I'm sure is frustrating for developers, doesn't mean that's how every dev feels. I just think there is too much incentive for devs to leave the iPhone. Too much money to be made.

I'll believe it when I see a few percent of mid- to upper-sized developers leaving.

And of those 85k apps how many of them are not crap...

I think saying 1k is being very generous. Most of the apps are pretty crappy and useless.

And yes I am calling what most of the devs are turing out crap.

I read reports that over 60% of all apps turn into apple are getting rejected with little help on why. Apple closes overly closes system will be its downfall in the end.
A lot of the best apps for the iPhone out there are currently only available for Jail broken phones only. That should tell you something. A lot of the best apps and devs are saying "I am done with apple" and going to make apps Jail broken only.

Go look at the jail broken app store. Some great stuff is in there. The approval process to get in that store is a matter of turning your app in and it is put up.

hanpa
Oct 7, 2009, 03:48 PM
This is by far far the most ridiculous request I have ever read.

You want them to use a programming language other than Objective-C?

I don't even know where to start. LOL.

Ridiculous? The majority of people with developer/programming skills are more familiar with Windows or Linux than Mac OS. The need of first buying a Mac and then learning how to use it, the SDK and Objective-C will stop too many great developers from giving it a try. I suppose Apple could solve this by allowing Mac OS to run on a virtual machine, e.g. VirtualBox, including the SDK. But they don't.

slu
Oct 7, 2009, 03:51 PM
All I have to say is EAT IT MICROSOFT! Windows Mobile SUCKS lol :D :p

I love seeing the way things are going for Microsoft. It is like watching a giant passing out about to SLAM and hit the ground collapsed. Always too little too late! :rolleyes:

I hope my sarcasm meter is broken.

If it is not, comments like this are exactly what is wrong with this forum.

What does Microsoft has to do with topic?

Zwopple
Oct 7, 2009, 03:53 PM
Ridiculous? The majority of people with developer/programming skills are more familiar with Windows or Linux than Mac OS. The need of first buying a Mac and then learning how to use it, the SDK and Objective-C will stop too many great developers from giving it a try. I suppose Apple could solve this by allowing Mac OS to run on a virtual machine, e.g. VirtualBox, including the SDK. But they don't.

And the same can be said vice versa. Anyone that wants to program for Windows will need to use .Net and a Windows Box. What is this "because I'm a PC I will complain I can't dev for iPhone" crap?

I'm not starting a PC vs MAC war I'm just stating that it's fairly obvious that 99% of the time you will have to be developing on the operating system that you're developing for. iPhone OS is a limited version of Mac OS X and it's really no surprise it requires you to use XCode which is Mac Only.

Oh and you CAN dev iPhone apps on windows. If you really REALLY want to you can set up all the compiler settings and command line tools to do it. It's just not worth the time.

Xibalba
Oct 7, 2009, 04:04 PM
Of course Android might surpass the iPhone. The iPhone is limited to 1 device whereas the Android is spanned over many more devices and will continue to branch out.

The success of the iPhone will not be surpassed by any single device however.

agree.

i have had an iphone since Nov 07 and if Android were to find a better hardware device, even i might consider a switch.

although the ability for another manufacturer to make hardware better than the iphone and actually work on improving development over time is extremely unlikely.

slu
Oct 7, 2009, 04:06 PM
No, they most likely wouldn't. There is no reason to think that it would - it's conjecture. (http://daringfireball.net/2004/08/parlay)

1. The blog post you linked is referring to the failure to license the Mac OS in the 80s. I am referring to now, hence why I said Mac OS X. You honestly think if there were more devices capable of running OS X, specifically cheaper devices, that the market share would not be greater? Especially since hardware is now generic, for the most part?

2. That blog post disagrees with the theory that the Mac could have had a Windows style monopoly if they licensed their OS back in the 80s (or platform since hardware was dramatically different back then). I never said they would have dominant market share if you could install Mac OS X on any computer now, just that the market share would be higher. The 5 year old link you provided is not relevant at all to my comment.

3. That blog post is also conjecture, because as the very article you posted states: "It’s conjecture, and barring a time machine, it can never be proven."

And of those 85k apps how many of them are not crap...

I think saying 1k is being very generous. Most of the apps are pretty crappy and useless.

And yes I am calling what most of the devs are turing out crap.

I read reports that over 60% of all apps turn into apple are getting rejected with little help on why. Apple closes overly closes system will be its downfall in the end.
A lot of the best apps for the iPhone out there are currently only available for Jail broken phones only. That should tell you something. A lot of the best apps and devs are saying "I am done with apple" and going to make apps Jail broken only.

Go look at the jail broken app store. Some great stuff is in there. The approval process to get in that store is a matter of turning your app in and it is put up.

I don't disagree with your general point about the app store, but Cydia has plenty of crap apps as well. One only needs to wade through all the calculator skins, winterboard themes, and soundboards to know this.

Yes, there are some great apps for jailbroken iPhones, but it is disingenuous to imply that Cydia doesn't have many of the same problems as the app store. But an open store is going to get you a lot of junk, so you have to take the good with the bad.

Speedy2
Oct 7, 2009, 04:09 PM
And of those 85k apps how many of them are not crap...

I think saying 1k is being very generous. Most of the apps are pretty crappy and useless.


Who cares what you think? You will find high quality apps for pretty much anything you can think of in the App Store. You won't find quality apps for everything in Google's, Microsoft's, RIMM's, Nokia's etc App store. That's the only thing that counts.

And your "argument" that it is oh-so-impossible to get iPhone Apps approved is ridiculed by the sheer number of Apps and the fact that the number is constantly growing.



I read reports that over 60% of all apps turn into apple are getting rejected with little help on why.

Source please.



A lot of the best apps for the iPhone out there are currently only available for Jail broken phones only.

Utter nonsense. Name "a lot" please!
You can't really make decent money with jailbroken apps. Tell me how on earth "a lot of the best" would ONLY be available outside the App store?

How many iPhones with OS >=2.0 are jailbroken in the first place?



That should tell you something.

Yeah it tells us that you're making stuff up and have a very warped idea of the facts.

Xibalba
Oct 7, 2009, 04:09 PM
I hope my sarcasm meter is broken.

If it is not, comments like this are exactly what is wrong with this forum.

What does Microsoft has to do with topic?

i agree with you but i think that he was referring to the fact that if android surpasses the iphone, then MS's windows mobile OS will fall even further back in the mobile operating system rankings.

still, i find it annoying when people blindly bash MS or Apple just because others are doing it. MS does make some good products, but i prefer (and can afford) apple when it comes to computing and mobile products. i do however enjoy the MS Xbox 360 product and will purchase the upcoming Natal technology.

Speedy2
Oct 7, 2009, 04:12 PM
Flash in the independant operator here, not the full SDK.

And how is this relevant? If Adobe makes it possible to use the entire range of the iPhone's hardware it makes no difference.

-> New development platform, available for other OSs

Exactly what you wanted, right?

Oh the whining will go on I suppose...

Speedy2
Oct 7, 2009, 04:17 PM
No, they most likely wouldn't. There is no reason to think that it would - it's conjecture. (http://daringfireball.net/2004/08/parlay)

Have you actually READ the link you posted?
Times have changed a bit since then, you know ...

Due to Apple's grown popularity (if not ubiquity) it can be safely assumed that quite a few more people would install Mac OS if it were officially supported on non-Mac hardware. A highly significant number of people? Good question. To Apple's benefit? Probably not.

miketcool
Oct 7, 2009, 04:22 PM
Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight, a cupcake is going to take down iPhone?

We currently have Donut. Eclair is coming, followed by many others. I will always take a nice pastry over an apple any day of the week. :D

iphonetester
Oct 7, 2009, 04:24 PM
I will not be surprised. This is similar to what happened to Apple and PC makers back in the days. Just the sheer volume of PC producers finally lifted Windows above OS X. I believe similar trend will follow on for mobile market. More and more phone makers will adopt Android or Windows Mobile and overtake Iphone OS.

Liquorpuki
Oct 7, 2009, 04:28 PM
2. Only one manufactor is going to sting. Android is announced already on 4 different companies phones (Motoral, HTC, Samsung,and Nokia) I have heard rumors of Sony being added to that list as well.

For those who like the iPhone, this works in our favor. With iPhone OS, there's only one hardware platform developers have to deal with. All they need to do for QC is make sure their apps work on the latest OS rev.

Since Android is a platform running on multiple handsets, devs SHOULD test their apps on multiple phones. Most won't because they don't have the resources to get their hands on every single phone out there. So software that runs fine on one phone won't run on others and might even brick them because of different hw configurations. It happened with Windows Mobile.


3. Apple very poor and single point app approval process is starting to a lot of problems. When Jail Break stores are kicking off it clearly people want more choices. Hell people Jail break just to get certain apps that apple will not approve or take to long to approve. Compared to google system where the app store is just one of many locations to buy apps.

I agree with the app approval being slow but I don't think people appreciate how streamlined the process of putting a 3rd party app on your iphone is. It's rare that an app will make your OS unstable, brick your phone, and make you restore factory settings just to get it running again.

Far as jailbreaking, to put it in perspective, look how bad Verizon cripples ALL their phones on release. Yea I have to hack the iphone to install maybe 5 choice apps I can't get otherwise, but at least my phone didn't have its GPS and bluetooth disabled, RAM cut in half, wi-fi disabled so I'd have to use 3g even though I'm at home, etc

Rodimus Prime
Oct 7, 2009, 04:30 PM
I don't disagree with your general point about the app store, but Cydia has plenty of crap apps as well. One only needs to wade through all the calculator skins, winterboard themes, and soundboards to know this.

Yes, there are some great apps for jailbroken iPhones, but it is disingenuous to imply that Cydia doesn't have many of the same problems as the app store. But an open store is going to get you a lot of junk, so you have to take the good with the bad.

True it has its own list of crap apps but it is much more open. Apple current system is closed. We have rejection with no reasoning why it was rejected and on top of that 84k+ apps on the apps store are crap.

So both apple system and Jail break system are full of same percentage of crap but at least there is a better chance of finding great apps in the Jail broken world because you have both the apple side and the open side to work with.

Rodimus Prime
Oct 7, 2009, 04:33 PM
Far as jailbreaking, to put it in perspective, look how bad Verizon cripples ALL their phones on release. Yea I have to hack the iphone to install maybe 5 choice apps I can't get otherwise, but at least my phone didn't have its GPS and bluetooth disabled, RAM cut in half, wi-fi disabled so I'd have to use 3g even though I'm at home, etc

And how does carrier matter at all in your argument. Sorry but that entire augment there has no meaning in this debate.

pdjudd
Oct 7, 2009, 04:57 PM
Have you actually READ the link you posted?
Times have changed a bit since then, you know ...
Yes, I have. Several times. Things have changed, but the base premise of the article still applies - Microsoft Got Lucky - there is no way to suggest that Apple can pull that off in this day in age when the world depends too much on Microsoft. The article deals with past actions affecting the present. Its very relevant. Its point is that MS got successful because of how it parlayed successes over time, not because it embraced an "open strategy". They did that years ago. Read the whole thing. Grueber makes a point that still applies today because marketshare in the OS world has changed very little.

Due to Apple's grown popularity (if not ubiquity) it can be safely assumed that quite a few more people would install Mac OS if it were officially supported on non-Mac hardware. A highly significant number of people? Good question. To Apple's benefit? Probably not.

Popularity is irrelevant. Going up against Microsoft is suicide. Period. Their market share is too large and Apple's success is too dependent on hardware sales. Microsoft's objective is to rule the roost. They did that way back in the early 90's and they are too well entrenched to be taken out directly. They are just too big. You are simply conjecturing without any basis in reality. Apple tried the cloning market and it failed because people by in large do not want to undertake the massive pains to go to a completely different platform without somewhat of a safety platform. People want Windows because the stuff they run on depend on it. Thant and competing with Microsoft directly is a folly - going up against MS is going to be very bloody. You have better luck elephant hunting with a pea shooter.

Take a look at any other market that involves hardware and software. The article makes a good point about video games. They are totally incompatible with each other and are very closed systems. They remain successful because they can take one success and transition it to another - like the Mario franchise. MS did the same thing with computers years ago (with the objective of being really lucky thanks to boneheaded decisions by IBM). Apple did not. Of course Apple's objectives were far different back then, but Apple operates differently than MS does.

While Apple could get a few more customers, it just wouldn't last. There is no reason to think that it would or that they could sustain it. Its about making a good choice.

You cannot say that Apple's market strategy would gain them more money from copying MS business strategy, you just can't because they aren't the same. You cannot make a flawed assumption and think that Microsoft got achieved success by doing things the way the market was meant to be. They didn't. Microsoft got real lucky and rode on the coat tails of IBM business mentality and got massive market share because of that - way back in the 80's. That's just how things ended up. Doesn't mean that it works that way all the time and there is no reason to suggest that Apple is gonna want to chance it.

At this point in the game Microsoft has won - Jobs has admitted that years ago. Microsoft makes billions from the business market that by in large has no interest in making a risky and expensive change that going to Mac entails. Microsoft provides a very prediction, safe route that has massive industry support. Apple would have needed this kind of success really early on - but back in that day, they were adopting practices that were fundamentally different.

It doesn't matter that Apple's system is better - the lions share of the market made their choice years ago and that market doesn't tolerate direct competition. In Microsoft's world - they are the only game in town. And I say that the reason is that Apple is still around because they don't encroach into Microsoft's big markets. They don't license their software out to Microsoft's partners, they don't sell office software to PC's. There is a reason - Microsoft is far too big.

DUSTmurph
Oct 7, 2009, 05:04 PM
The cell phone market is so sporadic its hard to predict numbers for 1 year in the future, let alone 2 years.

pdjudd
Oct 7, 2009, 05:04 PM
I will not be surprised. This is similar to what happened to Apple and PC makers back in the days. Just the sheer volume of PC producers finally lifted Windows above OS X. I believe similar trend will follow on for mobile market. More and more phone makers will adopt Android or Windows Mobile and overtake Iphone OS.

So why hasn't Windows Mobile ever been really successful? I think we can rule them out. Like most MS products, they don't dominate the market enough to succeed. Cellular phones are very saturated market wise.

jayducharme
Oct 7, 2009, 05:04 PM
I have no doubt Android will surpass the iPhone in terms of user numbers. Will it surpass in quality? That remains to be seen...

Even if it does surpass in the number of users, since when has Apple been solely concerned about numbers? Quality of design really does seem to be an obsession with Apple. When the iPhone was first released, didn't Jobs state that he would be happy with 1% of the cell phone market? He's already surpassed that. Just as with their computers, Apple has never positioned itself as a mass market brand for everybody. They have opened the floodgates on the smart phone market, but I don't think they ever intended to dominate it. They simply want to provide the best experience, and that in turn brings them discriminating customers.

bghoward
Oct 7, 2009, 05:21 PM
SDK that can execute on other platforms like Windows or Linux and that uses a more user-friendly and intuitive language than Objective-C

For one, Objective-C is really a pretty elegant language once you learn it, and if you really care you can write mostly in C/C++ with a few Objective-C hooks.

Ridiculous? The majority of people with developer/programming skills are more familiar with Windows or Linux than Mac OS. The need of first buying a Mac and then learning how to use it, the SDK and Objective-C will stop too many great developers from giving it a try. I suppose Apple could solve this by allowing Mac OS to run on a virtual machine, e.g. VirtualBox, including the SDK. But they don't.

As for the sdk, That will NEVER happen. Maybe for a hobbyist having to buy a mac may be a (very) slight issue, but if you can't afford $500 for a new mac-mini than you really aren't serious about developing an app are you? Why should Apple be serious about attracting you as a developer?

I remember reading a few weeks ago that apple has 125,000 developers signed up - finding eager devs willing to learn the platform and language is not a problem.

Look, I run an iPhone development business with 8 full time employees. A single iPhone game can cost us upwards of 6 figures (or more) to develop. What's a single one time cost of a few thousand in hardware?

Brian Howard
InMotion Software (http://www.inmotionsoftware.com)

kdarling
Oct 7, 2009, 05:24 PM
For those who like the iPhone, this works in our favor. With iPhone OS, there's only one hardware platform developers have to deal with. All they need to do for QC is make sure their apps work on the latest OS rev.

The iPhone platform has some significant variations. Location precision (lack of GPS), microphone or speaker existence on the touch, existence of MMS, CPU speed between models, amount of RAM (a potentially big problem for game makers).

So software that runs fine on one phone won't run on others and might even brick them because of different hw configurations. It happened with Windows Mobile.

Really. Do you have an example of an app bricking a WM phone?

It's rare that an app will make your OS unstable, brick your phone, and make you restore factory settings just to get it running again.

Sometimes it just takes getting an iPhone OS update to get into that situation.

Far as jailbreaking, to put it in perspective, look how bad Verizon cripples ALL their phones on release.

Verizon doesn't cripple their smartphones. Even their GPS is unlocked now.

Yea I have to hack the iphone to install maybe 5 choice apps I can't get otherwise,

So you admit that it's hobbled in its stock form? ATT / Verizon / Sprint don't block any apps you want to use on their smartphones. Or themes. Or anything else.

but at least my phone didn't have its GPS and bluetooth disabled, RAM cut in half, wi-fi disabled so I'd have to use 3g even though I'm at home, etc

The iPhone's Bluetooth was crippled to begin with... and still is. The original iPhone will always lack GPS and 3G.

I would just stick with the claim that Apple's total control over their platform can be helpful.

paradox00
Oct 7, 2009, 05:26 PM
Yes, I have. Several times. Things have changed, but the base premise of the article still applies - Microsoft Got Lucky - there is no way to suggest that Apple can pull that off in this day in age when the world depends too much on Microsoft. The article deals with past actions affecting the present. Its very relevant. Its point is that MS got successful because of how it parlayed successes over time, not because it embraced an "open strategy". They did that years ago. Read the whole thing. Grueber makes a point that still applies today because marketshare in the OS world has changed very little.

I'm sorry OSX market share would most definitely go up. From a business perspective though it would would be a terrible move, you are right about that. Profits would drop as Apple would get next to nothing from the sale of software only. The market share of OSX would drop once Apple went bankrupt.

Allowing greater access to your product almost always leads to larger sales volumes, but it isn't always in your best interest.

Speedy2
Oct 7, 2009, 05:28 PM
Yes, I have. Several times. Things have changed, but the base premise of the article still applies - Microsoft Got Lucky - there is no way to suggest that Apple can pull that off in this day in age when the world depends too much on Microsoft.


Well I think the original argument was not about Apple copying MSs success. I think we all agree that indeed MS got extremely lucky (but also showed a lot of skill and ruthlessness in exploiting that luck). However, the original argument was more about whether Mac OS would enjoy a higher market share if it were open to PCs. It probably would if Apple supported only "certified systems" to avoid driver issues. In any case, it is extremly unlikely that this is going to happen and therefore pure, rather meaningless speculation. :)

Rodimus Prime
Oct 7, 2009, 06:06 PM
Valid points, except you're looking at a micro-niche of power-users, while the iPhone's massive growth comes from a much broader market than that. Android will (and does) take some power-user market share, and I look forward to seeing where it goes.

The big thing though is DEVELOPER share. Apps. Android will run--in different flavors--on a number of different phones, offering choice in screen size, features, hard vs. virtual keys, etc. That sounds great--but will the same APP run on all those flavors? No. The app market will be fragmented among incompatible models. There's no good way out of that--it's one advantage Apple's model will hang on to.

I was thinking about it and come to think about it the different flavors of phones still comes down to the OS being the same. Just look at OSX and Windows, people test it on the OS but do not test it on all the hardware configurations. Hell if you just go with Macs you have an insane number which is small compared to windows.

You test it on the OS and call it good you might test it on 2-3 types of hardware if you are being very careful but most of the time if it works on one it is going to work on them all.. Android will be the same.

deannnnn
Oct 7, 2009, 06:09 PM
Competition is gooooood.

damnyooneek
Oct 7, 2009, 06:14 PM
its going to happen since its so open and so many brands are putting it into their phones.

MacFly123
Oct 7, 2009, 06:20 PM
I hope my sarcasm meter is broken.

If it is not, comments like this are exactly what is wrong with this forum.

What does Microsoft has to do with topic?

No sarcasm at all. I know Microsoft wasn't specifically in the topic, but it relates heavily. Apple, Google, and Palm are all going to be big players in the mobile computing world. Microsoft, RIM, and Symbian are all very outdated and behind. I think it is all very interesting. I wasn't alive when the personal computing revolution went down, but this is the same type of revolution.

It is very relevant because it seems like Google is becoming the new Microsoft. There are some big differences though that make me not despise Google, such as how they are pretty open. I rejoice in Microsoft failing because the world and technology is a better place without them hindering innovation and progression with all their illegal proprietary lock-in antics they constantly shove down peoples' throats! :rolleyes: RIP Micro$oft! :p

miniConvert
Oct 7, 2009, 06:21 PM
Android should easily surpass the iPhone in market share, IMHO. So what?

It's an OS written to run on a multitude of hardware and is/will be heavily customised by both manufacturers and operators. Due to this I doubt it'll ever match the iPhone for quality, while in terms of market share it should clean up.

charliehustle
Oct 7, 2009, 06:35 PM
Depends on what you're selling. How much money is Google really making with those Android licenses and the market place? How much are the handset makers making with Android?

Google MAY have a better margin, but Apple has a much bigger market for sure since they add most of the value.

ya that's why I said "generally", however, Googles main source of revenue is advertising. So all google wants is more and more people with smart phones.

It doesn't matter that they give android for free because if you own an iphone or some other smart phone, most likely you're using Google for some kind of search. All this results in more money for Google, and better margins, as developing the hardware like apple will increase costs..
with software, it's way cheaper..

apple iphone is only one product, there are many people who may be priced out, or people who prefer real buttons, or people who just like other phones. Android will eventually beat Apple when it comes to market share. It's inevitable.. and that is their business plan..

and Google does have better margins than Apple.. look up their quarterly reports..

now this doesn't mean android will be a better product, but the OS will be in a greater number of handsets compared to the apple OS.

A perfect example is Microsoft VS Apple,

Microsoft was smart to not get involved in the hardware..
and look their market share..

inkswamp
Oct 7, 2009, 06:38 PM
And because Android and Google operate in an "integrative and open environment, [they] could easily top ... the singular Apple," he said.

It's 2009. Are people still turned on by buzzwords like this?

I assume by "integrative and open," they mean open source. That's great and I love open source software (though there's been some debate as to how open Android really is) but here's the deal. Time and time again we see that what really matters in consumer tech is what works for the buyer, not what makes sense behind-the-scenes for developers. There are lots and lots of open source projects out there that have had success but very few instances where one has toppled and established closed source system. Even Firefox, one of the most popular pieces of open source software out there, is still way behind Internet Explorer.

If Apple keeps pumping out great ideas and maintains the level of quality they've delivered so far, there's no logical reason to think something will overtake it just because it's "integrative and open."

Liquorpuki
Oct 7, 2009, 06:44 PM
And how does carrier matter at all in your argument. Sorry but that entire augment there has no meaning in this debate.

You were arguing in your little list that having to jailbreak their iphone is gonna make users want to migrate to Android phones. Jailbreaking is basically hacking and phones are hacked because functionality is crippled. I'm pointing out that Android phones can have the same problem, especially if they come out on carriers such as Verizon, which goes further and also cripples hw features iPhone users take for granted.

The iPhone platform has some significant variations. Location precision (lack of GPS), microphone or speaker existence on the touch, existence of MMS, CPU speed between models, amount of RAM (a potentially big problem for game makers).

The context isn't how many variables exist but how many variables devs have to deal with. iPhone app developers have to deal with much less than developers on decentralized hardware platforms. WM developers have several different OEM's to deal with as well as all their models and generations thereof. If you can't see how the complexity translates into a harder development process, I don't know what to tell you.

Really. Do you have an example of an app bricking a WM phone

I had a couple apps brick my i730 back when I was on Verizon. I ended up having to hard reset and resync all my contacts.

Verizon doesn't cripple their smartphones. Even their GPS is unlocked now

the folks at the Verizon forums disagree with you

So you admit that it's hobbled in its stock form? ATT / Verizon / Sprint don't block any apps you want to use on their smartphones. Or themes. Or anyt

First most phones I've seen are hobbled in its stock form, not just the iPhone. But personally I think the quality of the iPhone and all the other things the design engineers got right outweighs the fact I have to jailbreak it to put a 5x5 matrix of icons on my screen out the box.

I hate AT&T service here in LA and I hate the fact I can't tether but I put up with it because it's such a good phone. I don't care that Android or Sprint doesn't screen apps because to take advantage of that, at this point in time I'd have to downgrade to a shttier phone and go to an app store that has less than 25% of the apps Apple does, and ironically, because they don't screen, more of them suck

The iPhone's Bluetooth was crippled to begin with... and still is. The original iPhone will always lack GPS

Crippled means the hw is functional but was disabled by the carrier or MFGer. An iPhone that wasn't designed with a GPS chip is not crippled. An iPhone having a fullly functional GPS chip that won't work without purchasing Telenav is crippled.

Nermal
Oct 7, 2009, 06:48 PM
I had a couple apps brick my i730 back when I was on Verizon. I ended up having to hard reset and resync all my contacts.

If you were able to reset and get it working again, then it wasn't bricked. "Bricked" means that the device now has the functionality of a brick. You cannot reset a brick, and certainly can't synch contacts with one :)

dyler
Oct 7, 2009, 06:49 PM
Oh so now we have Android. First it was the Palm Pre that was going to kill the iPhone, that did not happen, then it was this or that touch screen phone that was going to kill the iPhone and that did not happen. When Android first came out with the G1 that was going to kill the iPhone, that did not happen and now we have more Android devices killing the iPhone, not going to happen. This is a load of crap from people who don't know what they are talking about. Android is hard to develop for and is at least two years behind Apple at the moment, how is this going to happen? This is the stupidest prediction I have ever heard from people who don't like Apple for some reason that I cannot understand, let's stop predicting which device is going to be King and just see what happens!!! The main reason I say this will not happen is that Android is only being adopted by technophiles and not everyday people, the iPhone is being adopted by apple technophiles and everyday people, it is the everyday people that decide which device is king and they will not adopt Android unless the OS is completely overhauled in a different direction, people like my 63 year old father have an Iphone now and there is no way he would ever want or use an Android based phone. Tech analysts need to think of everyday people when they predict this crap and not techies who hate Apple for some reason or another!!!

mkoval11
Oct 7, 2009, 07:00 PM
The iPhone clearly has the traction and the momentum. Unless Apple builds a clunky square with a cheap keyboard and a lousy screen that barley has room for a giant clock, the iPhone will remain king. See who laughs last when iPhone crosses 100M units sold.

Oh BTW, did I mention they have the App Store. The ecosystem is well defined and by the time 2012 comes around they App Store will have over 100,000 apps.

charliehustle
Oct 7, 2009, 08:02 PM
Oh so now we have Android. First it was the Palm Pre that was going to kill the iPhone, that did not happen, then it was this or that touch screen phone that was going to kill the iPhone and that did not happen. When Android first came out with the G1 that was going to kill the iPhone, that did not happen and now we have more Android devices killing the iPhone, not going to happen. This is a load of crap from people who don't know what they are talking about. Android is hard to develop for and is at least two years behind Apple at the moment, how is this going to happen? This is the stupidest prediction I have ever heard from people who don't like Apple for some reason that I cannot understand, let's stop predicting which device is going to be King and just see what happens!!! The main reason I say this will not happen is that Android is only being adopted by technophiles and not everyday people, the iPhone is being adopted by apple technophiles and everyday people, it is the everyday people that decide which device is king and they will not adopt Android unless the OS is completely overhauled in a different direction, people like my 63 year old father have an Iphone now and there is no way he would ever want or use an Android based phone. Tech analysts need to think of everyday people when they predict this crap and not techies who hate Apple for some reason or another!!!

no offense, but market share is completely different from "superior product"

they do not go hand in hand, and a company with a larger market share can put out an inferior product (example: Nokia)

more phones with android are going to be sold because there are 40 times the number of handsets android is going to be on..
not a big deal, and apple fans should not be threatened..

the author is just stating simple facts..

retroneo
Oct 7, 2009, 08:29 PM
For example, every phone manufacturer is going to have their own set of features. Some may have cameras, vibration, video playback, etc. With the iPhone, you know exactly what is there and what the device you're targeting can do. You can build better applications to utilize the specific hardware.

Of the 6 iPhone OS devices so far released (still more than Android), each has their own set of features. Some may have cameras, vibration, video playback, etc. There is also an enourmous range of CPU and GPU ability. I think the only consistent thing so far has been the screen size and the fact that apps can only use touch and none of the buttons.

So there is a similar (smaller) problem that exists for developers on iPhone. It's unfortunately why Firemint say they won't release Real Racing 3GS too. Android tries to keep fragmentation to a minimum by running everything in a virtual machine but ultimately it has the same problem.

These aren't game consoles that are released once every 5 years.

TheOrioles33
Oct 7, 2009, 08:37 PM
You guys are all forgetting. The world is going to end in 2012 so it wont matter. :)

camarobh
Oct 7, 2009, 09:04 PM
No way. Apple will continue to release new hardware and updates as the iPhone continues through it's lifecycle. It is a recognized brand and like it or not, the control Apple exerts over the user experience maintains it's value.

Android is not recognizable to the general consumer, will be on some hardware manufacturer's phone, won't be consistent in its implementation, and will end up being just another phone OS.

sdunlapa
Oct 7, 2009, 09:18 PM
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU iPhone OS 3_1 like Mac OS X; en-us) AppleWebKit/528.18 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/4.0 Mobile/7C144 Safari/528.16)

Wait a minute, windows mobile is on multiple phones. Why won't they take over iPhone's market share? Everything is always so pie in the sky. I remember when the iPhone was supposed to be a disaster and a sure failure. Something sure went wrong there.

djgamble
Oct 7, 2009, 09:52 PM
Good luck to them then...
I predict Google will be bankrupt by 2012 when the VC's realize they're not achieving anything.

deannnnn
Oct 7, 2009, 10:11 PM
You guys are all forgetting. The world is going to end in 2012 so it wont matter. :)

I hope the 4G iPhone is out in time!

gkarris
Oct 7, 2009, 10:20 PM
1 iPhone Model (3 capacities) on AT&T vs many different Android Phones on all the other providers...

Seems possible to me...

(I can see a FREE Android Touchscreen phone with unlimited voice, data, and text for $70/month from someone out there to try to beat AT&T's offering - which isn't very hard to do...:eek:)

Rodimus Prime
Oct 7, 2009, 10:21 PM
No way. Apple will continue to release new hardware and updates as the iPhone continues through it's lifecycle. It is a recognized brand and like it or not, the control Apple exerts over the user experience maintains it's value.

Android is not recognizable to the general consumer, will be on some hardware manufacturer's phone, won't be consistent in its implementation, and will end up being just another phone OS.

Android my not be recognizable to the average consumer but GOOGLE sure as hell is.
You average consumer has figured out that Android is made by Google. People trust Google and know they put out some great stuff. People know about google maps, google earth, google street view and Gmail shall I go on..

All great things. People know the Android phones are made by google. The customization is a huge selling point as you can add a lot of apps. Set up the interface to exactly how you like it. Something you can not nor ever will be able to be done on the iPhone. That limitation is really a bad point about the phone.

pdjudd
Oct 7, 2009, 11:24 PM
I'm sorry OSX market share would most definitely go up. From a business perspective though it would would be a terrible move, you are right about that. Profits would drop as Apple would get next to nothing from the sale of software only. The market share of OSX would drop once Apple went bankrupt.

Which is kinda the point. Short term improvements are meaningless if they go right back down. I don;t contend that they would go up, but the whole point of increasing sales is to hope that they stay up. Otherwise itís just a waste of time. You can;t just say ďmarket share will go upĒ. Their market share goes up the minute a Mac gets sold. We have to look at the long run which you point out, will invariably go down and possibly lower than the base. A net loss kinda contradicts the idea of increased market share.

But this is all conjecture since Apple has already indicated that they are not playing the market share game.

[QUOTE]Allowing greater access to your product almost always leads to larger sales volumes, but it isn't always in your best interest.
Of course that statement is true. But does that require Apple to license their hardware out to others? I argue that itís not the case. Taking the MS approach fundamentally changes Appleís business. They donít have to do that. Of course the Grueber article covers that too. There are tones of ways to increase access to your product. The tough part is making it profitable. Both Microsoft and Apple accomplish that goal just fine without getting into a fight that results in a bad outcome for Apple or MS.

pdjudd
Oct 7, 2009, 11:28 PM
The cell phone market is so sporadic its hard to predict numbers for 1 year in the future, let alone 2 years.

Heck, new phones hit the market pretty regularly - I say at least monthly. Its a fast moving target.

SFStateStudent
Oct 7, 2009, 11:31 PM
Let me see; was android even considered an "iPhone Killer" or a wannabe? This makes me laugh....:rolleyes:

iphones4evry1
Oct 8, 2009, 12:15 AM
If the day comes when an Android phone is as good as an iPhone, then it will be the service provider that will be the tipping point. AT&T better get their act together!

retroneo
Oct 8, 2009, 12:34 AM
All great things. People know the Android phones are made by google.

Over here, they brand the Samsung and HTC phones as Google powered with the Google logo, and don't mention Android.

Google has a comprehensive suite of services that no-one else can match as yet and I don't see Apple starting a 10 year effort to build up a similar suite of services or collection of information.

Apple IMO needs to maintain a good relationship with Google.

Bing/Microsoft Live and Yahoo are still not up to the standard of Google's services. MobileMe and iWork.com cover such a tiny fraction of Googles services and are still very incomplete for the areas they do cover.

retroneo
Oct 8, 2009, 12:49 AM
If the day comes when an Android phone is as good as an iPhone, then it will be the service provider that will be the tipping point. AT&T better get their act together!

Donut has just been released this month.

Next year will see the release of Eclair and Flan. There will also be many Android handsets that use the Snapdragon processor, which has more than enough speed to handle Android with the same fluidity as the 3GS.

The Snapdragon processor is an ARM design similar to the Cortex A9 (two-issue out-of-order) and starts at 1GHz, but uses less power as it includes the baseband processor. There are already handsets shipping using it, not Android ones yet.

With three Android handset makers in stores now (Samsung, HTC, Huawei) and three more in stores before Christmas (LG, Acer and Motorola), Android is moving fast.

Competition is a good thing! Look how cool all these gadgets we all have in our pockets now, and think how neat they are going to be in just another 18 months!

Apple would be very sensible to add a $2 1700MHz power amplifier that works with T-Mobile USA, and end exclusivity in that market to promote competition.

G58
Oct 8, 2009, 03:32 AM
Three questions:

Are Gartner talking about the US market or the World market?

Is this guess based on 40 different Android handsets?

What number of iPhone carriers did they model?

This is not only the kind of dumb prediction that so exercises Nassim Talib, it is utterly meaningless and almost certainly wrong.

If you look at the two platforms, it's clear one [Apple's iPhone] is on a clear path that's now 28 months old. The other [Google et al's Android] is barely out of diapers, with one model down and the latest not exactly pulling up any tree roots yet.

The old 'build it and they will come' maxim only works if what you're selling is what people want. And that's the great unknown. Actually it's an unknowable unknown. But we do have some clues.

Apple has a loyal following and a great reputation for selling reliable software and hardware in one package. And that, as anyone who's bought a Nokia from Orange UK recently will know, is a much better solution. Oh, and women won't buy anything called 'Android'.

I have no idea what shape the Android market will be in in two years time, but I predict two things: With 40 different models, each with a vast array of different functionality, from any number of manufacturers, they have a compatibility nightmare on their hands, and absolutely no chance of creating any kind of buzz. Indeed, Microsoft have a better chance with whatever vision of ugliness they eventually spew out!

So, my fellow Macrumors posters, how about a wager?

I predict the true situation by 2012 will not be as Gartner suggest. I believe Apple will have their iPhone available all over the World with multiple carriers in each region, and that Apple's iPhone App, not Android will be in the number one spot. Indeed, I question whether the experiment will grow much beyond a techie wet dream.

I also predict that the Kindle will end up remaindered by the end of 2012. The only thing that might upset this is if they pull a colour screen and better battery out of the bag, and beat Apple's iPad on features and price. I don't see Amazon making that level of R&D investment, or being capable of leveraging that kind of buying power - ever.

edesignuk
Oct 8, 2009, 03:33 AM
I'm looking forward to it :D

needthephone
Oct 8, 2009, 07:00 AM
No, sorry.

In three years time my new phone os will be number 1.

And Zunes will be the number 1 MP3 player

England will win the World Cup

Cars will run on water and out of the exhaust will pour a stream of pure molten gold. Fluffy white bunny rabbits will follow the cars collect the gold and post the driver back ingots to store in their garages.

Everyone will be paid a minimum wage of a million of pound.

Finally they will admit that Swine Flu was the biggest over reaction ever made by the WHO and the world's governments.

Wars will end and man will live in harmony for ever more

The end, and we all lived happily ever after.

oh yes the iphone is still the number one smart phone....

electroshock
Oct 8, 2009, 07:04 AM
You guys are all forgetting. The world is going to end in 2012 so it wont matter. :)

Hopefully, after the Olympics. ;)

As for the prediction of Android surpassing iPhone's market share -- maybe, maybe not. But if it's going to do that, it'll have to suddenly hit the 'wow' factor and also gain an international distribution, network, and support of some kind.

I hear GOOG and VZN are in bed now but that seems U.S.-centric. To have any prayer of surpassing the iPhone, GOOG is going to have to hook up with a lot of other providers in other nations.

edesignuk
Oct 8, 2009, 07:09 AM
I don't understand why some of you are having such a hard time believing this.

The iPhone is great, it's not going any where. It is however one device from one company, and it's never going to be low (or even mid) end [of the market].

Android has the world at it's feet, really. It has an apps store (with 15,000 apps so far), you're not locked in to using this apps store though, others can come along, or you can just copy an app to your phone and install it (no jailbreaking crap needed).

Windows Mobile is a dead horse, iPhone OS is closed, but people want smart phones. Android to the rescue.

Any manufacturer can take Android, they can design any handset with any features they like to sell in different markets and at different budgets. They don't have to invest a fortune in developing an OS themselves, or the infrastructure to support it. It's all done for them. If they want to they can have a few devs customising Android to some extent, but it's not a huge commitment. They can just as easily leave it alone and not have to do anything with it.

Really seems like many a manufacturers wet dream.

Xibalba
Oct 8, 2009, 07:11 AM
The Snapdragon processor is an ARM design similar to the Cortex A9 (two-issue out-of-order) and starts at 1GHz, but uses less power as it includes the baseband processor. There are already handsets shipping using it, not Android ones yet.

With three Android handset makers in stores now (Samsung, HTC, Huawei) and three more in stores before Christmas (LG, Acer and Motorola), Android is moving fast.


this will be interesting to see but it still will be quite some time before we see some quality hardware devices for Android. time will tell.

OllyW
Oct 8, 2009, 07:11 AM
As for the prediction of Android surpassing iPhone's market share -- maybe, maybe not. But if it's going to do that, it'll have to suddenly hit the 'wow' factor and also gain an international distribution, network, and support of some kind.

I hear GOOG and VZN are in bed now but that seems U.S.-centric. To have any prayer of surpassing the iPhone, GOOG is going to have to hook up with a lot of other providers in other nations.


They already have the major networks in Europe.

The four major European networks, Vodafone, T-Mobile, Orange, and Telefonica (O2), are all planning to launch handsets powered by the Android platform during the second half of 2009. (http://www.talkandroid.com/1364-european-networks-shift-to-android/)

Warbrain
Oct 8, 2009, 07:52 AM
Not sure if this is linked yet but it's a good read:

http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2009/10/08/gartner-declares-android-a-second-place-winner-in-2012-why/

I personally don't see Android coming anywhere near Apple or RIM because their focus is so splintered and erratic. You're going to end up with the same issue as before - different interfaces on different devices. The only upside will be the uniform system.

Warbrain
Oct 8, 2009, 07:55 AM
Android my not be recognizable to the average consumer but GOOGLE sure as hell is.
You average consumer has figured out that Android is made by Google. People trust Google and know they put out some great stuff. People know about google maps, google earth, google street view and Gmail shall I go on..

All great things. People know the Android phones are made by google. The customization is a huge selling point as you can add a lot of apps. Set up the interface to exactly how you like it. Something you can not nor ever will be able to be done on the iPhone. That limitation is really a bad point about the phone.

I think you're giving people too much credit. I can tell someone about Android and they don't have a clue about the OS or who makes it.

Povilas
Oct 8, 2009, 08:10 AM
I don't understand why some of you are having such a hard time believing this.

The iPhone is great, it's not going any where. It is however one device from one company, and it's never going to be low (or even mid) end [of the market].

Android has the world at it's feet, really. It has an apps store (with 15,000 apps so far), you're not locked in to using this apps store though, others can come along, or you can just copy an app to your phone and install it (no jailbreaking crap needed).

Windows Mobile is a dead horse, iPhone OS is closed, but people want smart phones. Android to the rescue.

Any manufacturer can take Android, they can design any handset with any features they like to sell in different markets and at different budgets. They don't have to invest a fortune in developing an OS themselves, or the infrastructure to support it. It's all done for them. If they want to they can have a few devs customising Android to some extent, but it's not a huge commitment. They can just as easily leave it alone and not have to do anything with it.

Really seems like many a manufacturers wet dream.

iPhone OS is closed and you can buy apps only on the App Store. For other ways to work you need to jailbreak. Android has no such restriction, but you have no guarantee that app you are buying is not some trojan horse or it has 1000 other bad things.

j5045096
Oct 8, 2009, 08:13 AM
So they're making predictions on the cell phone industry 3 years from now? Let see... 10 years ago I was using a Nokia 2100 on PrimeCo. 8 years ago I was using a Nokia 5100 on the then new Verizon. 6 years ago I was using a Nokia 8100 something on AT&T Wireless...err then Cingular...err was it BellSouth. Whatever. 4 years ago I was using a Motorola i something on Nextel. 2 years ago I was using an LG Chocolate on Verizon. Now I use an iPhone 3GS. And each phone I bought was sold to me by a company who said they had the best network, most innovate features blah blah blah.

So in 10 years I went from a Nokia 2100 BRICK to an iPhone that sometimes allows me to leave my work laptop in the office when I come home because it can do everything I'll need to do from home or traveling. Even 2 years ago, the best I could do on my LG Chocolate was listen to some music and use an attempt at GPS on a phone.

And these guys are predicting the industry 3 years from now when I'm not even sure what it'll look like 3 months from now? Please stop wasting your time and ours with articles like these.

Little Giant
Oct 8, 2009, 08:42 AM
"The iPhone is limited to 1 device whereas the Android is spanned over many more devices and will continue to branch out."

That is exactly the weakness of the PC platform. It turns into a zoo where the monkeys and lions roam free and the people have to live in cages... :rolleyes:

edesignuk
Oct 8, 2009, 08:43 AM
That is exactly the weakness of the PC platform. It turns into a zoo where the monkeys and lions roam free and the people have to live in cages... :rolleyes:...but who has the market share?

pdjudd
Oct 8, 2009, 09:19 AM
...but who has the market share?

In smart phones? I believe Nokia and RIM are the big ones - and they are both vendors that have a high degree of control over the software and hardware. On the desktop market it clearly is MS, but it's not really accurate to say that they got that way due to availability on every hardware system under the sun. Microsoft's successes are due to bulding up from prior successes. No surprise their biggest success was practically given to them by a bone headed decision by IBM.

RIM is one proof that you can get tons of market share even when you control the whole widget to a high degree. The second component is having enough SKU's to accommodate different needs. Of course it can become very unwieldy very quickly.

Google's biggest problem is avoiding the pitfalls that Microsoft fell into - trying to have a product that does everything in a market that tends to have difficulty in making choices. Either you get it right and maintain it with a focused plan, or you just release a new product every few months and see if it sticks somewhere.

We cannot say that Google will succeed with this strategy simply because we have a hard time predicting how it will happen - there are too many players vigorously competing. We don;t have an situation like the desktop market where an IBM mentality of thinking can just hand over the market to Google. Just because you attach "Google" and "Open" to something doesn't mean that it's going to succeed. And even if it does, succeed, it could be for a different reason altogether.

If I was a gambling person, I would say that ranking isn't going to be the factor to look at since all the contenders are going to be really close to each other - its not going to matter if "Google is in Second" because they will have to contend with a market where they can go to third in 6 months. In other workds - its who can do the best at leveraging one success into another - and in a market such as this - anybody can do that.

BriGuy20
Oct 8, 2009, 09:24 AM
The only reason I could see this happening is if Apple doesn't roll out the iPhone to other carriers or if it does so late in 2011 or something.

I could also see Google making more unit sales but with lower revenue (i.e. more low-end units).

I think the point will be moot because of the gazillion different iterations of hardware manufacturers tacking on their individualized stuff.

dejo
Oct 8, 2009, 09:34 AM
The need of first buying a Mac and then learning how to use it, the SDK and Objective-C will stop too many great developers from giving it a try.
Great developers are not inhibited by things like that. In fact, they often consider it a challenge. It's lazy developers that don't welcome the opportunity to embrace different technology and just too-quickly dismiss it.

NAG
Oct 8, 2009, 09:36 AM
So they're predicting Android will replace Symbian and Windows (how many years and Windows Mobile 6.5 is the best they can do). Hardly surprising. I thought we were all predicting this when Android was first announced. All the junk, throw away phones made by HTC et al. use Android because it is at least in the same ballpark as the new smart phones. Meanwhile all the people who don't let the sales people in the mobile stores dictate their phone choices get an iPhone, Blackberry, or maybe a Pre if Palm doesn't die.

Android may be better than Windows 6.5 but they still have a lot of work when it comes to user experience. Google honestly needs to make their own phone as a benchmark to shame all the other phone makers into making a good one.

Oh, and does this report include predicted numbers of the iPod Touch? It runs the same OS as the iPhone so it is relevant as far as developer ecosystem.

macUser2007
Oct 8, 2009, 10:00 AM
Flash is what will bring the iPhone down.

I can see the ads:

iPhone: I have touch.
Android: Bleh, I have touch too.

iPhone: I am sleek and I have a 3.5" screen.
Android: Bleh, nowadays I am sleek too, and I have a 4" screen.

Android: Oh, and I can surf ALL of the web, including Flash sites and Hulu.
iPhone (nervously picking a pimple): Bleh, who needs Flash, I hate Flash!!! I hate Flash even more than I hated Copy/Paste. Just wait for HTML5, it'd be here in only 5 years....

Voiceover: Yes you can! But only with Android.

Warbrain
Oct 8, 2009, 10:13 AM
Flash is what will bring the iPhone down.

I can see the ads:

iPhone: I have touch.
Android: Bleh, I have touch too.

iPhone: I am sleek and I have a 3.5" screen.
Android: Bleh, nowadays I am sleek too, and I have a 4" screen.

Android: Oh, and I can surf ALL of the web, including Flash sites and Hulu.
iPhone (nervously picking a pimple): Bleh, who needs Flash, I hate Flash!!! I hate Flash even more than I hated Copy/Paste. Just wait for HTML5, it'd be here in only 5 years....

Voiceover: Yes you can! But only with Android.

Flash on a mobile device will be a horrid experience no matter how fast phones get.

pdjudd
Oct 8, 2009, 10:26 AM
Flash is what will bring the iPhone down.


I doubt it. I think that no matter what platform it is on, people are going to realize that it only really works well when you have a large enough screen. Flash may be able to scale up, but that doesn't mean the opposite is true.

Not to mention that a great deal of the things that Flash does now are being incorporated into HTML 5. Flash is heavily used due to incumbency and its prevalence on the desktop market. But what works on a computer doesn't always apply equally on phones.

dejo
Oct 8, 2009, 10:45 AM
Android: Oh, and I can surf ALL of the web, including Flash sites and Hulu.
iPhone: And by ALL you mean everything except sites that use Silverlight, or Active-X, or ...
Fixed that for ya! ;)

hanpa
Oct 8, 2009, 10:52 AM
For one, Objective-C is really a pretty elegant language once you learn it, and if you really care you can write mostly in C/C++ with a few Objective-C hooks.

As for the sdk, That will NEVER happen. Maybe for a hobbyist having to buy a mac may be a (very) slight issue, but if you can't afford $500 for a new mac-mini than you really aren't serious about developing an app are you? Why should Apple be serious about attracting you as a developer?

I remember reading a few weeks ago that apple has 125,000 developers signed up - finding eager devs willing to learn the platform and language is not a problem.

Look, I run an iPhone development business with 8 full time employees. A single iPhone game can cost us upwards of 6 figures (or more) to develop. What's a single one time cost of a few thousand in hardware?

Brian Howard
InMotion Software (http://www.inmotionsoftware.com)

I don't think that the cost of buying a mac is the problem, it's the availability of the initial experience with the SDK. 125,000 developers already signed up - I think that there would be at least twice that if the SDK could be used from Windows.

megfilmworks
Oct 8, 2009, 11:02 AM
When pigs fly.

hanpa
Oct 8, 2009, 11:03 AM
Flash on a mobile device will be a horrid experience no matter how fast phones get.

Right. And 640K ought to be enough for anybody...

TheSlush
Oct 8, 2009, 11:11 AM
Gartner's crazy.

charliehustle
Oct 8, 2009, 11:16 AM
the reason this topic has gotten so long is due to the fact that most apple fans have no idea what they're talking about..
they love apple and they will defend it to the death, even when their argument has no logic..

this has nothing to do with which product is better..

it's the simple fact that android will be available on a greater number of handsets compared to apple..

you guys need to look at the Microsoft vs Apple situation..
regardless of what you prefer or believe is a better product,
the one that makes software and licenses it out dominates the market share

you really must have a thick skull not to understand that..

pdjudd
Oct 8, 2009, 11:30 AM
the reason this topic has gotten so long is due to the fact that most apple fans have no idea what they're talking about..
they love apple and they will defend it to the death, even when their argument has no logic..

Not alt all. I have yet to say that all. I don;t defend Apple to the death at all.

this has nothing to do with which product is better..
Actually, to a degree it is...

it's the simple fact that android will be available on a greater number of handsets compared to apple..


Yea, just like Microsoft did... whoops...

you guys need to look at the Microsoft vs Apple situation..
regardless of what you prefer or believe is a better product,
the one that makes software and licenses it out dominates the market share

Thats not how MS got big. Not at all. Look at the real history behind the situation and you learn that after MS was given a major foothold by IBM, they just leveraged one success to another along with enterprises taking the IBM approach that nobody could go wrong with what IBM chose - which was Microsoft. Lots of companies do that even on closed platforms. Heck, look at how successful RIM is and they control the whole widget. Yes they create a lot of handsets. Google creates no handsets - they don't have any control over the final product.

Microsoft taking an open hardware approach has very little to do with their success. Its a side affect. A coincidence. Look at the video game market for further proof. MS doesn't take the desktop approach with the X-box - they parleyed their gaming successes on Windows to ease developers onto a closed hardware device. Nintendo has done that for years with their franchise characters. You cannot get a more closed ecosystem than Video games - and they are continuously successful. Even MS exploits closed ecosystems and they are finally making a profit (they would have earlier if they could have released a hardware system that wasn't so defective).

you really must have a thick skull not to understand that..
Insulting people does not help your case.

charliehustle
Oct 8, 2009, 12:18 PM
Actually, to a degree it is...

huh? how so?
so because a Ferrari has better quality, it will sell larger numbers than a Honda Civic that more people can afford..
I don't believe you



Yea, just like Microsoft did... whoops...

Traditionally, Microsoft aimed Windows Mobile at corporations that wanted Windows as a standard across PCs and handhelds

you're using the failure of one company as an excuse for another one..
different people, different enterprise..
Using that logic, apple should not even be making computers, due to their fall down prior to being saved by the ipod..

Microsoft is not Google..
How many microsoft apps do you use on your iphone? Do you use them more than Google products?
I bet you use Google maps, Google search.






Microsoft taking an open hardware approach has very little to do with their success. Its a side affect. A coincidence. Look at the video game market for further proof. MS doesn't take the desktop approach with the X-box - they parleyed their gaming successes on Windows to ease developers onto a closed hardware device. Nintendo has done that for years with their franchise characters. You cannot get a more closed ecosystem than Video games - and they are continuously successful. Even MS exploits closed ecosystems and they are finally making a profit (they would have earlier if they could have released a hardware system that wasn't so defective).

the point I was trying to make was more of a business plan compared to open or closed. I guess people are assuming all these phones are going to be priced the same (apple vs others), I highly doubt that..

in the business world, there are different markets and demographics, and yes, the iphone does well across the board, but you have to look at everything including price, cost of plans, and so on..

you might not see kids in grade 8 getting iphones, because their parents dont' want spend that that much money,
you can have a number of different situations.. but apple only has one product, and they're trying to market it toward everyone..

google will be positioned better to target different demographics compared to apple..

what if a user wants actual buttons to type on (yes people like that still do exist) how can apple make any money off them?
essentially, apple just lost a customer, and you can't make assumptions that all people want full touch screens..

some people might not like the look of the iphone,

google is giving people a choice of which handset they want, and this will result in them selling a higher number of phones..


Insulting people does not help your case.

It just bothers me when people have a very biased and closed minded opinions when it comes to apple..
I wasn't talking about anyone specifically, so sorry if I offended anyone..

Speedy2
Oct 8, 2009, 03:46 PM
ya that's why I said "generally", however, Googles main source of revenue is advertising. So all google wants is more and more people with smart phones.

..and of course more people using Google's services. I think their major issue was that smartphone makers like Apple and Microsoft have a decided interest in leading users to their own, non-Google services, while "old school" mobile phone companies like Nokia or Motorola don't even have many Web services to speak of. Apple may still be using quite a few Google services, but haven't they just bought a Google Maps competitor? And Google, MS and Apple are all competing in the "Docs" department.

Still, I'm not convinced that the Android investment was really necessary. Microsoft, their biggest enemy, is failing in the mobile OS market, whereas Apple isn't really showing any signs they might target Google's core business, the search engine and Web ads, in the future.

I wonder in which way Google sees its "auxiliary" services (Mail, Docs, Maps, Voice, Wave, et bloody cetera) as a future money maker. They must play a key role for the Android stretgy. However, quite a few people (including me) have my doubts about them. Even the highly successful YouTube isn't making any money.




and Google does have better margins than Apple.. look up their quarterly reports..


I never doubted that Google as a pure software company may have a better margin, but you would need to compare Apple's iPhone business to Google Android business and see who is making more money in total.

charliehustle
Oct 8, 2009, 05:03 PM
..and of course more people using Google's services. I think their major issue was that smartphone makers like Apple and Microsoft have a decided interest in leading users to their own, non-Google services, while "old school" mobile phone companies like Nokia or Motorola don't even have many Web services to speak of. Apple may still be using quite a few Google services, but haven't they just bought a Google Maps competitor? And Google, MS and Apple are all competing in the "Docs" department.

Still, I'm not convinced that the Android investment was really necessary. Microsoft, their biggest enemy, is failing in the mobile OS market, whereas Apple isn't really showing any signs they might target Google's core business, the search engine and Web ads, in the future.

I wonder in which way Google sees its "auxiliary" services (Mail, Docs, Maps, Voice, Wave, et bloody cetera) as a future money maker. They must play a key role for the Android stretgy. However, quite a few people (including me) have my doubts about them. Even the highly successful YouTube isn't making any money.





I never doubted that Google as a pure software company may have a better margin, but you would need to compare Apple's iPhone business to Google Android business and see who is making more money in total.

Ya, Don't get me wrong, I own an iPhone, and I can't really see anything coming close to it in the next few years.
And it's not that big of a deal if google takes over when it comes to market share, especially when they're giving android away for free.. (from a phone manufacturer point of view, it's saving them money)

IMO, Google knows that it's gonna be pretty hard for them to increase revenue from anywhere except advertising, and they want to allow people who (for whatever reason) choose not to buy an iphone, still a chance to browse then net easily to click on their adds...

17% of phones sold last year were smartphones, and I think thats going to increase year over year.. and regardless of what hardware you have, all google wants is more and more people on the internet, since they dominate online search.. (Bing is losing market share as we speak, and they're the only company with deep enough pockets to take a stab at google (microsofts operating cashflow is around 20 Billion, apple is only around 10 Billion)
and apple does not look like they will ever try to tackle google when it comes to search..

and personally, if there are over 30 phones running on android, it wouldn't be too hard to believe that for every one person that buys an iphone, there might be two people who purchase a phone that runs on android..

but again, I think people assume that this means apple will be inferior in some way because they will not dominate the market share..and this is not true..
they will continue to make a great product..and at the end of the day, it will inspire other companies to make better products..

and I know I just blabed on, but about the last part of your post.. I think it would be really hard to see who is making more money,
because google does not receive cash for android, but apple gains income from each iphone sale..
but google indirectly makes money off any smartphone that can access the internet (assuming they use google search)

at the end of the day, I like both companies for the service they provide.. I don't have a beef with apple in any way, even though it may sound like it..

ImageWrangler
Oct 9, 2009, 03:33 PM
Probably, unless Apple recognizes the competition and responds by:
- Removal of 3g cellular restrictions not technically motivated at least outside of the US
- Allowing at least music apps like Spotify to run in the background
- Improving the app approval process to become more like the Android process
- Flash support in Safari (with an option to disable this)
- SDK that can execute on other platforms like Windows or Linux and that uses a more user-friendly and intuitive language than Objective-C

Hahaha! I love it! A humor writer! For which night time show do you right your jokes for because these are all awesomely funny, I mean, only a humor writer could write such thing so ludicrous and out there. Now, please only take this is constructive criticism as some of your jokes you wrote aren't as funny as others, I mean, you're clearly not at the top escholon and you're honing your funny writing chops but, as a start, with such absurd one-liners as this I think your future is bright, especially for say parody or absurdist or non-logical humor... brilliant stuff. Keep up the good work. Unless you were being serious, in which case, try a magnifying glass.

pubwvj
Oct 9, 2009, 07:26 PM
"Android to Surpass iPhone in Market Share by 2012?"

Wow. Boring, baseless prediction. Everyone will forget it since it won't come to be. If by some remote chance it comes to be then they get to claim they made the prediction. This is hocus-pocus. They create a large base line of many varied predictions so that later they can claim accurate prediction. Typical of soothesayers and investment bankers.

twoodcc
Oct 10, 2009, 10:32 AM
it's too early to tell yet. this is all just speculation at this point. wait until more android phones and android 1.5 is out first

tayldn
Oct 14, 2009, 05:38 AM
Completely agree.

Me too. (Gartner know nothing- pure guesses). Having lots of devices is going to be less and less important for Nokia and Android. Apple have shown that form factor is not that important (not as important as it was when everything on the inside was the same)- a good big screen with a thin unit is all most need now that the magic is on the inside. Consumers are not going to want to differentiate with form factor (outside) so much as the cool stuff inside- there's real personalisation going on...inside.

I really used to dislike Apple (broken ipod!). But they know how to treat developers like me. The iPhone is going to take a much bigger share of the market over the next 24 months in the UK where it's coming off exclusivity with o2. The product is better and will stay better for some time. And cheaper untis are going to hit the market very soon making this accessible to everyone. Apple'll let this thing keep growing- in the future, they'll be able to make a loss on the handset...
Reckon they've got 24 months over the other manufacturers. o2 have about 20% of the market. Apple could triple their market share quite quickly simply by going with 2 more operators. Bit rudimentary I know- but why not?

G58
Oct 15, 2009, 07:39 AM
Some conventions are worth adopting, if only for the reasons they are created. For instance, when writing in the English language, the convention is to begin at the left, with each sentence starting with an upper case letter.

Now, I have no evidence to guide me here, but I suspect you're either lazy, or your shift key has broken on your keyboard. PCs do tend to ship with poor, cheap keyboards based on a thirty year old design.

But the important thing is that no matter if your points were in some small way credible, by presenting them the way you have, you've rendered the possibility of their credibility less easy to discern.

Thank you for participating. The exit is on the left and the keyboard repair service is next to the typing 101 class.

However, I love Google for many reasons. However, none of them is not that they make great hardware, support great software, support great hardware, or understand how to do any of these.

Google's support of Adroid is both admirable and, to a large extent altruistic, as well as an attempt to expand into other markets. But like Amazon, they don't understand the game. The kindle, for instance is actually useless as a textbook medium, yet this hasn't stopped Bezos from hawking it as such.

Apple's iPhone works because it has lineage, in terms of history, hardware and software development, and integrity, as well as reliability, developer support and marketing advantage. iMac begat PowerBook Ti, begat iPod, begat iPhone. NeXT begat Darwin, begat Mac OS X, begat iPhone OS. None of this is an accident. Apple designed this process. And they began in 1997 - if not earlier.

Android only began as a techie wet dream in 2005, and is the 21st Century answer to the Kibbutz, or workers' collective. Both were very optimistic ideas with worthy ideals. But both failed because they relied upon a greater input of encouragement and resources than they were ever capable of producing in terms of meaningful contribution or profits.

I'm sure there may well come a day when there are 125,000 developers working on Android applications. There may even be 85,000 applications available for the Android platform too - from some dark corners of the net. But no matter how many manufacturers jump on the Android handset bandwagon, none of them will come close to creating a coherent user-base, or to matching Apple's business model.

And that, my dear typographically challenged friend is the key here. Ultimately, numbers are irrelevant if they only represent a fragmented 'diaspora' of the Android faithful. The sum total will only ever be quotable as a statistic.




the reason this topic has gotten so long is due to the fact that most apple fans have no idea what they're talking about..
they love apple and they will defend it to the death, even when their argument has no logic..

this has nothing to do with which product is better..

it's the simple fact that android will be available on a greater number of handsets compared to apple..

you guys need to look at the Microsoft vs Apple situation..
regardless of what you prefer or believe is a better product,
the one that makes software and licenses it out dominates the market share

you really must have a thick skull not to understand that..

charliehustle
Oct 15, 2009, 07:10 PM
Some conventions are worth adopting, if only for the reasons they are created. For instance, when writing in the English language, the convention is to begin at the left, with each sentence starting with an upper case letter.

Now, I have no evidence to guide me here, but I suspect you're either lazy, or your shift key has broken on your keyboard. PCs do tend to ship with poor, cheap keyboards based on a thirty year old design.

But the important thing is that no matter if your points were in some small way credible, by presenting them the way you have, you've rendered the possibility of their credibility less easy to discern.

Thank you for participating. The exit is on the left and the keyboard repair service is next to the typing 101 class.

However, I love Google for many reasons. However, none of them is not that they make great hardware, support great software, support great hardware, or understand how to do any of these.

Google's support of Adroid is both admirable and, to a large extent altruistic, as well as an attempt to expand into other markets. But like Amazon, they don't understand the game. The kindle, for instance is actually useless as a textbook medium, yet this hasn't stopped Bezos from hawking it as such.

Apple's iPhone works because it has lineage, in terms of history, hardware and software development, and integrity, as well as reliability, developer support and marketing advantage. iMac begat PowerBook Ti, begat iPod, begat iPhone. NeXT begat Darwin, begat Mac OS X, begat iPhone OS. None of this is an accident. Apple designed this process. And they began in 1997 - if not earlier.

Android only began as a techie wet dream in 2005, and is the 21st Century answer to the Kibbutz, or workers' collective. Both were very optimistic ideas with worthy ideals. But both failed because they relied upon a greater input of encouragement and resources than they were ever capable of producing in terms of meaningful contribution or profits.

I'm sure there may well come a day when there are 125,000 developers working on Android applications. There may even be 85,000 applications available for the Android platform too - from some dark corners of the net. But no matter how many manufacturers jump on the Android handset bandwagon, none of them will come close to creating a coherent user-base, or to matching Apple's business model.

And that, my dear typographically challenged friend is the key here. Ultimately, numbers are irrelevant if they only represent a fragmented 'diaspora' of the Android faithful. The sum total will only ever be quotable as a statistic.

it's funny how you're complaining about sentence structure, when it's clear you can't even read...

read post #134, incase you're too retarded to scroll,
here you go

Ya, Don't get me wrong, I own an iPhone, and I can't really see anything coming close to it in the next few years.
And it's not that big of a deal if google takes over when it comes to market share, especially when they're giving android away for free.. (from a phone manufacturer point of view, it's saving them money)

IMO, Google knows that it's gonna be pretty hard for them to increase revenue from anywhere except advertising, and they want to allow people who (for whatever reason) choose not to buy an iphone, still a chance to browse then net easily to click on their adds...

17% of phones sold last year were smartphones, and I think thats going to increase year over year.. and regardless of what hardware you have, all google wants is more and more people on the internet, since they dominate online search.. (Bing is losing market share as we speak, and they're the only company with deep enough pockets to take a stab at google (microsofts operating cashflow is around 20 Billion, apple is only around 10 Billion)
and apple does not look like they will ever try to tackle google when it comes to search..

and personally, if there are over 30 phones running on android, it wouldn't be too hard to believe that for every one person that buys an iphone, there might be two people who purchase a phone that runs on android..

but again, I think people assume that this means apple will be inferior in some way because they will not dominate the market share..and this is not true..
they will continue to make a great product..and at the end of the day, it will inspire other companies to make better products..

and I know I just blabed on, but about the last part of your post.. I think it would be really hard to see who is making more money,
because google does not receive cash for android, but apple gains income from each iphone sale..
but google indirectly makes money off any smartphone that can access the internet (assuming they use google search)

at the end of the day, I like both companies for the service they provide.. I don't have a beef with apple in any way, even though it may sound like it..


next time read before you post so you don't look stupid while trying to act smart..
key word is "trying"

ps. you can edit and send a final draft of my post to me through PM

G58
Oct 16, 2009, 06:04 AM
Oh, I see, more examples of your inability to begin sentences with uppercase letters. Thank you.


it's funny how you're complaining about sentence structure, when it's clear you can't even read...

read post #134, incase you're too retarded to scroll,
here you go



next time read before you post so you don't look stupid while trying to act smart..
key word is "trying"

ps. you can edit and send a final draft of my post to me through PM

kdarling
Oct 16, 2009, 07:42 AM
Apple's iPhone works because it has lineage, in terms of history, hardware and software development, and integrity, as well as reliability, developer support and marketing advantage. iMac begat PowerBook Ti, begat iPod, begat iPhone. NeXT begat Darwin, begat Mac OS X, begat iPhone OS. None of this is an accident. Apple designed this process. And they began in 1997 - if not earlier.

Android only began as a techie wet dream in 2005,

Your knowledge of mobile history is a bit lacking.

Good ideas come from people, not companies. Both devices have long personal histories, even though the current iPhone and Android devices only started in mid 2005.

Android was begat by Andy Rubin, who worked at Apple in 1989, then was a major player in Magic Cap (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_Cap), WebTV, and Danger. So there's long experience behind both iPhone and Android teams.

I'm sure there may well come a day when there are 125,000 developers working on Android applications. There may even be 85,000 applications available for the Android platform too - from some dark corners of the net.

It's very likely to happen.

As for quoting raw numbers, they're not always useful. There's been over three quarters of a million downloads of the Android SDK. Doesn't mean that many are working on it actively. Similarly, many of those so-called "iPhone developers" are regular users who bought memberships to get beta access.

Don't get me started on the "85,000" apps. Tens of thousands are poor duplicates. That goes for all platforms:

Sometimes I wonder how many really unique apps there can be, not just variations. Someone should do a study on the topic. Would be interesting. Must be in the low thousands, if any that many.

kupua
Oct 16, 2009, 09:00 AM
Ballmer should consider giving a marketing contract to Gartner!

G58
Oct 18, 2009, 07:56 AM
If I thought it was Relevant to mention the people, I would have.

Steve Wozniak co founded Apple. His inventions and machines are credited with contributing significantly to the personal computer revolution of the 1970s. Indeed, he created the Apple I and Apple II. The latter gained so much popularity it eventually became one of the best selling personal computers of the 1970s and early 1980s.

But, and here's the important point, he's nothing to do with the daily running of Apple now and has contributed virtually nothing since the early days. Yet Apple, in it's second phase with Steve Jobs in charge, is redefining mobile phones - totally without Woz playing any part in the lineage that made it possible.

Andy Rubin has also founded a company. But his history is that of a man who's come up with some possibly badly timed and poorly executed ideas, and partnered with the same haphazard wisdom. He also possesses more of an employee mentality, than a visionary to whom money is attracted.

It has to be remembered that Ubuntu [that other example of open source OS 'success'] is the only 'flavour' of the computer operating system based on the Debian Linux distribution to have broken out of the geek domain into the wider market. And this is as a result of Mark Shuttleworth's patronage. Therefore, Google are to Android as Shuttleworth is to Ubuntu - patrons. This isn't how business works. This isn't how businesses make money.

When I speak of lineage, I do so with some degree of authority and experience. The old 'Deep Throat' quote: "Follow the money" embodies wisdom that seems to have escaped you, yet it's true of everything from enterprise to terrorism.

What we have with the iPhone is a genuinely useful, definable lineage that can be accurately tracked in retrospect, as well as predicted to a certain extent in terms of future performance. But don't worry, you're not alone in not recognising that. Sir Alan Sugar made the same mistake of underestimating the iPod back in 2005, as did Steve Ballmer with the iPhone, and the whole of Wall Street did with Apple.

However, we are now in the middle of Apple's iPhone play. [Not literally, but figuratively]. And this play is very very well planned, conceived and directed. So much so in fact that I can see elements of Chinese military strategy at the heart of it. [But that's a discussion for another day].

In contrast, the Android project is like a flotilla of hopeful, yet dubiously piloted little boats, setting out on what they all seem to believe is the same journey, but by the best will in the world, can't possibly be. Not only are there too many interests that need to be served, there are far too many opportunities for the 'fleet' to loose contact with each other and their market, make no money, and eventually break up.

You say: "It's very likely to happen." re numbers of Android developers and apps etc. Sure, while the water looks good, phone makers have little to lose in pushing handset to run Android, and several will, inevitably, immediately diluting any potential gain for individual manufacturers. But as soon as interest wanes, users will find lines being dropped players will drop out of the game, and support will disappear.

So, even though the Android may well be, or is possibly, EVENTUALLY capable of being, as good a mobile operating system as Apple's iPhone OS is NOW, [albeit one developed by an un-monetised network], without the benefit of what Apple brings to the party, in terms of a single identifiable and desirable hardware solution, it's not a credible alternative. It certainly isn't ever going to be a game changer.

And don't forget, we've all been buying phones from these other players for years, and found them all wanting in a vast variety of ways, no matter how varied the choice of form factors and functionality.

Finally, psychologically this choice actually proves to be an enormous negative, as is always the case. More is not less. Fewer choices actually make choosing easier. So why are people betting on the opposite to what experience tells us is true?


Your knowledge of mobile history is a bit lacking.

Good ideas come from people, not companies. Both devices have long personal histories, even though the current iPhone and Android devices only started in mid 2005.

Android was begat by Andy Rubin, who worked at Apple in 1989, then was a major player in Magic Cap (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_Cap), WebTV, and Danger. So there's long experience behind both iPhone and Android teams.



It's very likely to happen.

As for quoting raw numbers, they're not always useful. There's been over three quarters of a million downloads of the Android SDK. Doesn't mean that many are working on it actively. Similarly, many of those so-called "iPhone developers" are regular users who bought memberships to get beta access.

Don't get me started on the "85,000" apps. Tens of thousands are poor duplicates. That goes for all platforms:

Sometimes I wonder how many really unique apps there can be, not just variations. Someone should do a study on the topic. Would be interesting. Must be in the low thousands, if any that many.

megadon
Oct 19, 2009, 12:59 PM
So why are people betting on the opposite to what experience tells us is true?[/B]

Economics.
Different products are marketed different ways. Different price points, and different marginal utility for each person.

The joy/benefit that you get out of the iphone (lets say touch screen for example) could be a downside to another customer, and that's just one example.

undheim
Nov 5, 2009, 10:43 AM
I don't think that the cost of buying a mac is the problem, it's the availability of the initial experience with the SDK. 125,000 developers already signed up - I think that there would be at least twice that if the SDK could be used from Windows.

I agree, I did not run out buying a mac when I found out I wanted to try to make a mobile game. I did it on the Android sdk, halfway through Google had still not sorted out publishing paid apps from my country so I bought a macbook, an iPhone 3G (which I love) ported the game and published on the app store. Today I am thankful that google delayed. Android and Java is a dog compared to the iphone. Help people see the light! :D

schwell
Nov 5, 2009, 09:56 PM
Now that Android is coming to Verizon (http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?t=798678) and they will be collaborating on handsets, I have no doubt Android will surpass the iPhone in terms of user numbers. Will it surpass in quality? That remains to be seen...

Maybe, but there is a good chance Verizon will screw it up.

Plus, the number of Windows users far surpasses MAC OS X users, but Apple is doing just fine when compared to Microsoft.

macfan881
Nov 5, 2009, 09:58 PM
http://www.engadgetmobile.com/2009/11/05/iphone-vs-droid-multitouch-keyboard-showdown-video/1#c22887995

Verizon Fails at multi touch keyboard.

NT1440
Nov 5, 2009, 10:02 PM
I completely beleive it will surpass the iphone in marketshare, after all its going to be on just about every popular cell phone in the future, as well as crap phones. You gain marketshare when you flood the market, just like windows.

That said, from what I've read, android is actually a good platform, meaning that apple will continue to innovate to stay ahead.

charliehustle
Nov 6, 2009, 04:41 PM
Maybe, but there is a good chance Verizon will screw it up.

Plus, the number of Windows users far surpasses MAC OS X users, but Apple is doing just fine when compared to Microsoft.


What are you talking about? You have any links to your belief that "verizon will screw it up"? or you just "believe"? kind of like the tooth fairy or santa?

lets' break it down.. (after all, this thread is about market share)

windows (90% market share of OS worldwide)
apple (10%)

Microsoft market cap, $250 Billion
Apple, $175 Billion

Microsoft Revenue:$56 billion
Apple Revenue:$36 billion

Microsoft Profit Margin:24%
Apple profit margin:15%

Microsoft total cash:$33 billion
apple total cash:$23 billion


I wish people would understand the difference between market share and "inferior product"

they do not go hand in hand. And because Google will sell more phones than apple does not mean google will have a better smartphone.

NT1440
Nov 6, 2009, 04:58 PM
they do not go hand in hand. And because Google will sell more phones than apple does not mean google will have a better smartphone.

Google has stated they will never have a smartphone. At best they just guide (rather closely) companies when producing Android handsets.

That said, if the iPhone isn't on verizon by midway next year with no solid rumors of it coming, I'm probably going to get an HTC Eris (or the Eris II will be out by then). Cheap, sexy, and running a decent OS (which will hopefully by 2.0 by then).

G58
Nov 7, 2009, 03:39 PM
Or because it's an interesting debate that engages many minds in varying aspects of the possibilities.

Or maybe you're just incapable of recognising the fact that Mac users, on average, are smarter than PC users.

And by smarter, I mean we're more enquiring. We also tend not to write using lower case letters at the beginning of sentences, and use poor grammar. Why does that matter?, you might ask. Well, for a start, it's incorrect. But it's also ignorant and rude and immature.

So, when we debate, for five minutes or for a few days, maybe the smart thing to do is pay attention. The experience may just fill in the obvious gaps in your education.


the reason this topic has gotten so long is due to the fact that most apple fans have no idea what they're talking about..
they love apple and they will defend it to the death, even when their argument has no logic..

this has nothing to do with which product is better..

it's the simple fact that android will be available on a greater number of handsets compared to apple..

you guys need to look at the Microsoft vs Apple situation..
regardless of what you prefer or believe is a better product,
the one that makes software and licenses it out dominates the market share

you really must have a thick skull not to understand that..

megadon
Nov 10, 2009, 03:40 PM
Or because it's an interesting debate that engages many minds in varying aspects of the possibilities.

Or maybe you're just incapable of recognising the fact that Mac users, on average, are smarter than PC users.

And by smarter, I mean we're more enquiring. We also tend not to write using lower case letters at the beginning of sentences, and use poor grammar. Why does that matter?, you might ask. Well, for a start, it's incorrect. But it's also ignorant and rude and immature.

So, when we debate, for five minutes or for a few days, maybe the smart thing to do is pay attention. The experience may just fill in the obvious gaps in your education.

thanks for proving me right. Facts are facts. 2 +2 = 4, there is no debate about it. It's like saying apple dominates the os market share compared to msft.

mtbgtr
Nov 12, 2009, 09:08 PM
Not sure why anyone would care that an android device would surpass iPhone in 2012 when we will all be dead on December 21, 2012 anyways. :cool:

megadon
Dec 27, 2009, 09:50 PM
Google has stated they will never have a smartphone. At best they just guide (rather closely) companies when producing Android handsets.

That said, if the iPhone isn't on verizon by midway next year with no solid rumors of it coming, I'm probably going to get an HTC Eris (or the Eris II will be out by then). Cheap, sexy, and running a decent OS (which will hopefully by 2.0 by then).

Gooooooooogleee phone!!!

solidus12
Dec 30, 2009, 07:18 AM
I think the realistic expectation is: "If Apple doesn't make any more changes to the iPhone for the next 10 years, there will be an Android phone to beat it by 2020!!"

I feel like the trend is going to stay the same as it was with the G1. They're like "ooo look at our neat new features!!" Unfortunately, the iPhone/iPod just got those features, only better, just before you launched.

The competition just can't stay ahead, and Apple is going to keep it that way.

Yeah I mean what with the iphones Bluetooth transfers, tethering, awesome camara, Flash support, excellent reception, fantastic battery life etc..

Yeah way ahead.

No.

The iphone is successful because of the user-experience; Its one a child can pick up and use, it is slick and fluent experience and its packaged in something attractive.

People see it and are drawn to it because of this, the other phones require time and effort to navigate between menus and options to figure out how to use it - The iphone is simple. Pick up and play.

It has pushed the boundaries on user-experience and how a phone should try and work Yes and that has been a very attractive feature because it does everything all other phones can do but presents it far better.

JoEw
Jan 20, 2010, 11:22 PM
i really divided on the matter i think android has a possibility of surpassing iphone market share only because android platform is on more then just 1 smart phone. However iphone is simplistic and has the app store which has way more developer backing then android does at the moment. Mainly because there is money to made from the app store where android simply does not have enough popularity for developers to make money from its store. I think the biggest thing hurting the iphone is the fact that it is locked on ATT. I think it needs to be on all major US cell networks or at least on verizon.

BuddyTronic
Jan 23, 2010, 01:30 AM
I tried installing the android sdk, it is the usual linux crapfest of having to fix and tweak everything. After 1 hour I still could not get it working. Absolutely appalling, makes me wonder about google. Aapl wants max lockdown on all their **** but at least it works.

Ljohnson72
Jan 28, 2010, 10:59 PM
Because Android isn't an OS that is on multiple devices on multiple carriers. :rolleyes:

desigarms
Feb 11, 2010, 12:34 PM
I've been an iPhone for years, starting with the original iPhone then the 3G, then the 3GS. I firmly believed that I would be getting the next iPhone...until I had a chance to play with the Motorola Droid!

Let me explain. I'm not brand loyal won't go on a stupid forum to claim the iPhone is the best phone...because..I happen to own one. That is rather childish. I choose to own whatever i deem best for me. A few years ago it WAS the iPhone..now it IS the Droid.

Open source, yes could be hard for developers to develop Apps for different versions of hardware, but many developers are not focusing their Apps to the most popular phone (ie..Droid) so the Apps runs bug-free.

The UI interface and ability to customize is amazing!

External memory card allows for apps as well as data to be easily backed up. If an Iphone craps out...you may have your iTunes backup. What if your PC dies too (yes it happened to me) your data is lost! And to restore data, you need another iPhone to get AT your data. Not so with Droid, all your data is on your memory card!

Ability to install and load what you want. Wow, it feels so nice to be able to do what you want, with what's YOURS! No need to Apples approval, especially when it comes to 'moral' stuff. We're all adults, let us do what we want..even if it's porn.

Ability to run programs in the background. This is the single MOST important feature to me. Imagine reminders that SPEAK to me to buy Milk when I'm close to my grocery store!!!! Or to mail something when I'm close to the Post office!

Calendar that automatically synch with Google calendar. No extra fees for Mobile Me..and works absolutely perfectly! Unlike Mobile Me..which I had.

Same for Gmail..instant notification!

The list goes on and on!!!!

Please don't take this as IPhone bashing. It's a great phone, especially with iTunes and I can integrate into my car stereo. But the benchmark has been raised.
Just have an open mind, try other phones and you'll be impressed!!!

desigarms
Feb 11, 2010, 12:42 PM
I tried installing the android sdk, it is the usual linux crapfest of having to fix and tweak everything. After 1 hour I still could not get it working. Absolutely appalling, makes me wonder about google. Aapl wants max lockdown on all their **** but at least it works.

Load Sholmod..it's a open step, one package to root (hack) your phone.

And the coolest part about it is, it's made for people like you...meaning it's dummy proof! ;)

rhett7660
Feb 11, 2010, 12:53 PM
I've been an iPhone for years, starting with the original iPhone then the 3G, then the 3GS. I firmly believed that I would be getting the next iPhone...until I had a chance to play with the Motorola Droid!

Let me explain. I'm not brand loyal won't go on a stupid forum to claim the iPhone is the best phone...because..I happen to own one. That is rather childish. I choose to own whatever i deem best for me. A few years ago it WAS the iPhone..now it IS the Droid.

Open source, yes could be hard for developers to develop Apps for different versions of hardware, but many developers are not focusing their Apps to the most popular phone (ie..Droid) so the Apps runs bug-free. Debatable about apps running bug free on any platform.


The UI interface and ability to customize is amazing! This would be nice

External memory card allows for apps as well as data to be easily backed up. If an Iphone craps out...you may have your iTunes backup. What if your PC dies too (yes it happened to me) your data is lost! And to restore data, you need another iPhone to get AT your data. Not so with Droid, all your data is on your memory card!

Ability to install and load what you want. Wow, it feels so nice to be able to do what you want, with what's YOURS! No need to Apples approval, especially when it comes to 'moral' stuff. We're all adults, let us do what we want..even if it's porn.

Ability to run programs in the background. This is the single MOST important feature to me. Imagine reminders that SPEAK to me to buy Milk when I'm close to my grocery store!!!! Or to mail something when I'm close to the Post office! This would be nice..



Calendar that automatically synch with Google calendar. No extra fees for Mobile Me..and works absolutely perfectly! Unlike Mobile Me..which I had. You can do this too without Mobile Me on the iPhone

Same for Gmail..instant notification! You can get this on the iPhone

The list goes on and on!!!!

Please don't take this as IPhone bashing. It's a great phone, especially with iTunes and I can integrate into my car stereo. But the benchmark has been raised.
Just have an open mind, try other phones and you'll be impressed!!!

See bold area's.

balamw
Feb 11, 2010, 07:56 PM
Calendar that automatically synch with Google calendar. No extra fees for Mobile Me..and works absolutely perfectly! Unlike Mobile Me..which I had.

Same for Gmail..instant notification!


If you don't need to access an Exchange server, you can do this with Google Sync on the iPhone.

http://www.google.com/support/mobile/bin/answer.py?answer=138740&topic=14252

EDIT: I'm not keeping track, but did they ever get around to fixing the memory storage on the droid so you can have more than 256 MB of apps? The microSD is kind of useless if you can't you know use it.

B

Gabriel GR
Feb 11, 2010, 09:10 PM
Honestly. The only things I want from an internet empowered phone is to work well with my email (gmail) and calendar.

So far my blackberry serves me alright. But it sucks in everything else.

neilp4453
Feb 12, 2010, 03:14 AM
All I'm going to say is that Apple isn't doing enough to keep iPhone users...well, iPhone users!

Two of my cousins now own droids. One had an iPhone and got a Droid once he started working at a Verizon store. The damn phone is jampacked with features that Apple refuses to include.

In order for Apple to improve their device, they must first be beaten. Otherwise, they will sit on their asses just watching the cash come in. They do it with their current line of computers and they are doing it now.

I love my iPhone but I think it is just that time. Hopefully they can come back. It is time to loosen their grip on the App Store, let Google do their "thang" and add numerous features that are available NATIVELY!

iphonedev11
Feb 15, 2010, 03:05 PM
I can believe this, but only since the Android OS is open source. This means companies are making phones with their OS, not because its better. The iPhone is the superior phone, but Google is doing a great job at making the Android available to the masses.

Man4allsea
Feb 15, 2010, 04:24 PM
Erm.. you're being closed minded.

The SDK is limited only to the Apple OS, granted, it relies on hooks, however, you are alienating a hell of a lot of people from developing on the platform.

Interesting thought... I guess that's why so few people develop for the Iphone. Probably explains the paltry 150,000 apps written in the last eighteen months and the pitiful 3,000,000,000 downloads.

I wish we had more .net developers cranking out apps a rate of 4 a year. Hopefully, Apple will learn from the folks in Redmond and really start making useful stuff.

Consultant
Feb 15, 2010, 04:49 PM
That's like arguing Linux will rule all computers in 201xyz.

Interesting thought... I guess that's why so few people develop for the Iphone. Probably explains the paltry 150,000 apps written in the last eighteen months and the pitiful 3,000,000,000 downloads.

I wish we had more .net developers cranking out apps a rate of 4 a year. Hopefully, Apple will learn from the folks in Redmond and really start making useful stuff.

Plus the apple app store is confirmed to own close to 95% of mobile app market.

speedriff
Feb 16, 2010, 10:34 AM
Yes Android will surpass the iPhone OS as all the phone manufacturers are adopting it (the smart ones anyway, sorry Microshaft). That being said however, Apple does have a problem on it's hands. Google is refining its product and very soon it will give Apple a good run. Right now Apple is king of the good smartphone market and if you want one you have to go to AT&T and give up call reliability for it. Once there is a great option, Apples foray into the cell market is going to be hit hard. Other manufacturers are giving AMOLED screens and are getting better and better. Once they get a decent music program or they make their phones play nice with iTunes and get some really good apps (Hey Google I don't like shopping for apps on my phone) the iPhone will have serious competition. Hey Steve Jobs, you better quit being so hardheaded and give us Flash. Yeah I know it is old tech but most websites use it...get it? The other manufacturers gotta love this about Jobs. I am pretty much an Apple fanboy but I am really starting to think Jobs is a douche. Hopefully he will review the history of other American companies who get successful and sit back and let the others pass them by, taking the marketshare with them. If Jobs and Co. aren't careful that is exactly what is going to happen to Apples wireless share.

neilp4453
Feb 16, 2010, 03:17 PM
I can believe this, but only since the Android OS is open source. This means companies are making phones with their OS, not because its better. The iPhone is the superior phone, but Google is doing a great job at making the Android available to the masses.

That is pretty delusional talk right there. The iPhone is superior...how? I can tell you that I like the iPhone UI better but that is where it ends. The droid marketplace is better or will become better (mostly because it is open source). I have already seen some apps that do a better job than their counterpart on the iPhone. Now don't get me wrong, the App Store has SO MANY more choice but it wouldn't surprise me if this quickly changes. The Android Marketplace is still relatively new.

The Droid is superior in native features and this is my main concern. Apple is very behind on this...and it is nothing new to know that Apple doesn't pick up anything new until everyone else has it. Still waiting for hdmi on macbooks. The UI is nothing to laugh at either. THese aren't poorly designed phones and it is the type of delusional thinking that "Apple rules, other developers drool" that is getting us no where. The worst part is that it just requires a new software update...they just don't want to do it until their last string begins to break.

When I originally bought my iPhone, I came on here and posted some negatives about the phone. 90% of this community grabbed their pick forks and demanded to know where I lived. Of course, no one had any input on my points because there are none. The mentality here is take it like it is (long and hard) or go somewhere else.

CylonGlitch
Feb 16, 2010, 03:33 PM
Two issues :

1) From the original post "In 2010, as many as 40 models of Android devices will ship, . . . "

How the heck is a developer supposed to support that many different devices? Even if there were 5 different screen resolutions, it would be hard to optimize your app for each. Now different RAM configurations, different CPU's, different everything, OUCH.

2) 3 BILLION downloads! If you have had an iPhone for the last few years and have purchased maybe 50 to 100 applications; are you willing to give up not only your hardware, AND the software you purchased but all the DATA that you've put into those applications just to switch OSs? I can see if you're someone who only uses it for gaming or social networking, yeah, but many people have TONs of time and energy put into USING their applications. Yes, I know, some people will, but the masses will think twice about it.

aristobrat
Feb 16, 2010, 03:45 PM
The Android Marketplace is still relatively new.
The Android Marketplace "opened for business" roughly 90 days after the iTunes App Store did, no?

07/10/2008 = iTunes App Store launches
10/22/2008 = Android Marketplace launches

Man4allsea
Feb 17, 2010, 12:17 AM
I can believe this, but only since the Android OS is open source. This means companies are making phones with their OS, not because its better. The iPhone is the superior phone, but Google is doing a great job at making the Android available to the masses.

What is it with open source fanatics? I mean let's talk about the great open source achievements of the past 15 years. There are many, but they never really seem to turn into market leading commerce, it's like profitable communes, mutually exclusive/oxymoronic. Google is not the king of open source. They protect their algorithms with all the secrecy that Apple does it's product releases. No one seems to notice this.
Google rips people off right and left and has a monopoly with adwords, but no one says a thing. The whole android platform is about making sure that they can sell as many ads as possible for the highest price possible. Steve Jobs was right when he called them evil. Apple doesn't pretend to be your benevolent friend, google sucks, and I hope the android platform is the beginining of the end!

FightTheFuture
Feb 17, 2010, 01:20 AM
No one seems to notice this. i don't agree with much of your post, but i agree with the sentiment. i'm tiring of the Google = Good, Apple = Evil heard around the boards.

they are both companies that are just trying to make money. sadly, people paint Apple as the bad guy either because 1) the iPod was extremely successful or 2) they assumed apple would eventually go bankrupt 10 years ago and are upset that it didn't happen. luckily Gen Y'ers who don't care about what computers run facebook the best are buying products based on what they want, and not which processor is in it.

will there be more android phones than iPhones in the world? probably. but right now there are more blackberrys, more symbian based phones being sold. the iPhone is selling just fine. just because there are a lot of great phones on the market doesn't mean apple will sell less than 8 million iPhones a quarter.

G58
Feb 17, 2010, 05:45 AM
That is pretty delusional talk right there. The iPhone is superior...how? I can tell you that I like the iPhone UI better but that is where it ends. The droid marketplace is better or will become better (mostly because it is open source). I have already seen some apps that do a better job than their counterpart on the iPhone. Now don't get me wrong, the App Store has SO MANY more choice but it wouldn't surprise me if this quickly changes. The Android Marketplace is still relatively new....

It's a bit rich calling people delusional and then coming out with with wish list statements as if they're bound in volumes of 'The Future History of Smartphones vol ll'

The Android market has potential, but only for as long as lazy phone manufacturers, who have never learned how to do operating systems and software, are happy to grab a freebie. This situation is the same as you or me going to a fair and picking up a free dev copy of some new software... and then running a business off its capabilities. No license fee! That's the attraction.

The saved costs derived from having much lower in-house dev costs and shorter route to market make Android a gift. But not without major issues. CylonGlitch [above] makes this very valid point:

"... as many as 40 models of Android devices will ship, . . . "

"How the heck is a developer supposed to support that many different devices? Even if there were 5 different screen resolutions, it would be hard to optimize your app for each. Now different RAM configurations, different CPU's, different everything, OUCH."

It's a ludicrous state of affairs. A wet dream for the armchair geek maybe, but for the non geek buyer, the proposition is entirely different. It already gives me a headache just thinking about it.

With the iPhone, Apple have demonstrated one of the oldest marketing principles still holds true in the 21st Century. If you give people three models to choose from with two colour options, you make the proposition simpler.

But all other manufacturers are still depending on the old marketing model of offering a bewildering array of models to try and catch the entire market. Now, that model has failed already - because it doesn't work. The market is automatically diluted. So why are they still using it?

speedriff [also above] has decided Steve Jobs is a "douche" because he's being "hardheaded" over Flash, while "Other manufacturers are giving AMOLED screens and are getting better and better."

Apple make more profit from all their products than anyone else. One way they do this is by waiting until they can demand a very high proportion of a large enough production of a component [NAND flash memory, screens etc] at the most competitive price, or can manufacture in-house [CPUs]. That's not just good business, it's vital for long term survival.

Wait until June this year and we'll see the new iPhone with a longer [HD aspect ratio] OLED screen. And HTML5 is the future. in reality, Adobe are better candidates for the 'douche' epithet here. If Flash had fewer issues, maybe Apple would add it.

What you need to understand is that Apple is better at seeing, predicting and exploiting the WHOLE picture, than any other company in this game. And anyone who seriously thinks a disparate group of not for profit developers and a market full of lazy manufacturers with a 19th Century sales mentality are going to win this one, is simply not even looking at it properly.

speedriff
Feb 17, 2010, 06:51 AM
So what is your job at Apple? The problem with Apple (trust me I love their products) is that they don't care what their customers want concerning wireless products. They seem to only change when they might lose marketshare. If you call that good business then I suggest a history lesson of Japanese business practices. They see a company that is succsessful but isn't giving customers what they want, they fill that demand and walk away (eventually) with all the marketshare. One only has to look at Cars, motorcycles, televisions etc. to see it. I am starting to think Steve Jobs is a douche for more reasons than flash. I am always reading articles about him having a little tantrum and banning this or that because someone made him mad. Grow up Steve and give your LOYAL customers what they want or we will go elsewhere when a viable alternative arrives. Don't fall into the, "The bigger they are the harder they fall" category. As for Flash, it may be a little buggy so let me download it at me own risk. Sorry, but Flash is everywhere and I am tired of not being able to view it. Someday that won't be the case but until then...let me have it. I'm going to spend $800 on an iPad when I can't view Flash content? Really? Sorry, not me. I will just stick with my trusty notebook.:apple:

Stella
Feb 20, 2010, 09:22 AM
I tried installing the android sdk, it is the usual linux crapfest of having to fix and tweak everything. After 1 hour I still could not get it working. Absolutely appalling, makes me wonder about google. Aapl wants max lockdown on all their **** but at least it works.

Ease of use - uh.. look at XCode:

You've got to go through bloody hoops to be able to debug Unit Tests on XCode! XCode can be extremely long winded, whilst in other IDEs - no hassles what so ever! I'm not saying that XCode completely sucks, but Apple could do a lot to improve it.


( Unit Tests considered being a vital part of application development )

neilp4453
Feb 21, 2010, 03:16 PM
It's a bit rich calling people delusional and then coming out with with wish list statements as if they're bound in volumes of 'The Future History of Smartphones vol ll'

The Android market has potential, but only for as long as lazy phone manufacturers, who have never learned how to do operating systems and software, are happy to grab a freebie. This situation is the same as you or me going to a fair and picking up a free dev copy of some new software... and then running a business off its capabilities. No license fee! That's the attraction.

The saved costs derived from having much lower in-house dev costs and shorter route to market make Android a gift. But not without major issues. CylonGlitch [above] makes this very valid point:

"... as many as 40 models of Android devices will ship, . . . "

"How the heck is a developer supposed to support that many different devices? Even if there were 5 different screen resolutions, it would be hard to optimize your app for each. Now different RAM configurations, different CPU's, different everything, OUCH."

It's a ludicrous state of affairs. A wet dream for the armchair geek maybe, but for the non geek buyer, the proposition is entirely different. It already gives me a headache just thinking about it.

With the iPhone, Apple have demonstrated one of the oldest marketing principles still holds true in the 21st Century. If you give people three models to choose from with two colour options, you make the proposition simpler.

But all other manufacturers are still depending on the old marketing model of offering a bewildering array of models to try and catch the entire market. Now, that model has failed already - because it doesn't work. The market is automatically diluted. So why are they still using it?

speedriff [also above] has decided Steve Jobs is a "douche" because he's being "hardheaded" over Flash, while "Other manufacturers are giving AMOLED screens and are getting better and better."

Apple make more profit from all their products than anyone else. One way they do this is by waiting until they can demand a very high proportion of a large enough production of a component [NAND flash memory, screens etc] at the most competitive price, or can manufacture in-house [CPUs]. That's not just good business, it's vital for long term survival.

Wait until June this year and we'll see the new iPhone with a longer [HD aspect ratio] OLED screen. And HTML5 is the future. in reality, Adobe are better candidates for the 'douche' epithet here. If Flash had fewer issues, maybe Apple would add it.

What you need to understand is that Apple is better at seeing, predicting and exploiting the WHOLE picture, than any other company in this game. And anyone who seriously thinks a disparate group of not for profit developers and a market full of lazy manufacturers with a 19th Century sales mentality are going to win this one, is simply not even looking at it properly.

You really think so? I don't think Apple has done anything exceptional. They built off of their popular iPod brand. Any company could do the same..unfortunately not every company has something as popular as iPod. Apple's entre into the smartphone market was guaranteed from the start.

In your post, all I see is you ranting about the superiority of Apple while downplaying potential competition by just overlooking what they have done thus far. In our case, competition is healthy because if it were up to people like you, we would have to accept an iPhone 4g with the same specs as an iPhone 3GS. Yes, I am greatly overexaggerating but I hope you see my point.

Apple will do very little unless they are pressured to do a lot. I guess you missed my point where I said Apple does this on a regular basis with all of their items. The last to implement anything new is not something they do because they are an epithet of marketing. They do it because they can.

rhett7660
Feb 21, 2010, 04:31 PM
You really think so? I don't think Apple has done anything exceptional. They built off of their popular iPod brand. Any company could do the same..unfortunately not every company has something as popular as iPod. Apple's entre into the smartphone market was guaranteed from the start.

In your post, all I see is you ranting about the superiority of Apple while downplaying potential competition by just overlooking what they have done thus far. In our case, competition is healthy because if it were up to people like you, we would have to accept an iPhone 4g with the same specs as an iPhone 3GS. Yes, I am greatly overexaggerating but I hope you see my point.

Apple will do very little unless they are pressured to do a lot. I guess you missed my point where I said Apple does this on a regular basis with all of their items. The last to implement anything new is not something they do because they are an epithet of marketing. They do it because they can.

I don't agree with this at all. There phone when it came out was a lot more expensive then a good majority of the phones out at the time. They were not subsidized at all. They had something that was different and new to the game. The App store wasn't even around for the consumer at that time. There were web apps but not applications like we know it now. Very limited ones at that.

They were going against the likes of Nokia and Black Berry. Heck at that point the iPhone wasn't even considered a smart phone was it? It didn't have really any tools to compete against Black Berry. All it had was a new user interface.

Sure there were going to sell some units but I don't think any of this guaranteed a winner. Especially in a market that was saturated with phones that cost 50 or less and or free if you sign up.

yodaxl7
Feb 21, 2010, 11:25 PM
iPhone is totally a trend. iPod is simply a dedicated device to play music and maybe video. The mult-touch and app store are two key creations that made the iphone a trend. That's why you see other companies following Apple's foot step. Android is a new niche that was a couple step behind iphone os. Google is a "business making" or "jump starter". So, there is no REAL support for Android os. Google is too open. This os will challenge the market weed out bad companies. However, this can hurt the android survival!! iPhone os will remain the dominant force as long as Apple continue to upgrade well.

G58
Feb 22, 2010, 01:37 PM
...I don't think Apple has done anything exceptional. They built off of their popular iPod brand. Any company could do the same..unfortunately not every company has something as popular as iPod. Apple's entre into the smartphone market was guaranteed from the start.

I don't really know where to begin to reply to this simplistic tripe.

In your world, are the policemen made of sugar by any chance?

You: "don't think Apple has done anything exceptional." Buy a Nexus one then.

"They built off of their popular iPod brand."

How did they create the touchscreen iPhone BRAND from the iPod Touch BRAND - a product that was launches after it?

iPhone Release date: June 29, 2007
iPod Touch 1st generation Release date: September 13, 2007

Brands don't build technology. Brands only build limited awareness and trust. But if the iPhone wasn't as good as it is, and as new as it was when it was first released, it would not only not have benefited from any brand benefits created by previous iPod model, it would have failed, and damaged the iPod brand too.

"Any company could do the same..unfortunately not every company has something as popular as iPod."

If this was the case, it would be Nokia and RIM duking it out now. Your entire theory is immature and utterly flawed. It's Apple's business model that created this situation, aided and abetted by an utterly moribund mobile phone market prior to their intervention.

"Apple's entre into the smartphone market was guaranteed from the start."

Here I agree, but not for any of the reasons you've proposed. Apple's ace is OS X. The version used to power the iPhone is a cut down version of the full OS with a touch screen UI. Every other mobile manufacturer was always going to be at a disadvantage as soon as Apple decided to play in their pool.

macUser2007
Feb 22, 2010, 05:37 PM
The iPhone is great, IMO.

BUT, Android 2+ is getting to be a real contender. Donut may just be the one to take it to the next level. Notably, the new Androids have not been cheap clones, but rather well-thought out, feature-rich sets, like the Nexus One. With AMOLED screens larger than the iPhone's and robust hardware (e.g. better on-board GPS than the iPhone), I wouldn't be surprised if they take market-share aware from the iPhone.

I also think the "killer app" for the general population will be Flash, when it becomes available on the new sets. Suddenly, the iPhone will be the only large screen smartphone without access to the the full web.

For the iPad the lack of Flash will be a much larger problem. There are a bunch of tablets coming out, some sporting Android 2.x, all of which will run full Flash, and be able to access the full web. On larger screens, mobile versions of major sites suck, and some do not work at all.

And the general consumers don't really care when some sweaty geek foams at the mouth how much he hates Flash. They just want to be able to see all of the web, in its full Flash glory.

FoxyKaye
Feb 22, 2010, 06:04 PM
And the general consumers don't really care when some sweaty geek foams at the mouth how much he hates Flash. They just want to be able to see all of the web, in its full Flash glory.
For better and for worse.

I happen to be one of those Geeks foaming at the mouth about flash, and in general, I think that the reason why Adobe was so upset by Jobs' recent comments that they're lazy and all their products are bloated and inefficient is because they hit to close to home.

But you're also very right - the general consumer doesn't care about these points. On some level everyone "knows" that the Web "requires" flash, and without it they're not getting the full "experience." It's an easy hit for the competitor's marketing department to play up the full flash experience on devices that support it in comparison to the iPhone and iPad. Jobs can scream all he wants about HTML5 on the horizon, however, this isn't going to be fully realized for some time. Likewise, too many sites rely too heavily on flash content for its absence to not be felt.

I think not supporting flash is a mistake, despite its technical flaws. Maybe this is all just a play by Apple to get Adobe to make some real and necessary improvements to flash in the first place - especially in how it taxes processor cycles and affects battery life on OS X (and presumably the iPhone OS as well). It wouldn't surprise me at all to see some magical "reconciliation" between Apple and Adobe on this point sometime this year as the iPad hits the consumer market.

inkswamp
Feb 22, 2010, 06:29 PM
What are we on now, like, the 3rd rev. of the iPhone hardware? Think back to the 3rd rev. of the iPod (I don't even think that version had a color screen yet.) How about the third rev. of OS X? Third rev. of the iMac?

I think one thing speculation like should should take into account is that Apple is incredibly aggressive about updating their products and what lies ahead can often, drastically change the playing field.

Remember the end of 2006 when the Zune was announced and everyone was running around spazzing out about how dead Apple was and all the usual Microsoft cheerleaders in the tech press were practically wetting themselves in excitement? And a mere month later, what happened? The iPhone was unveiled and all but nullified the Zune.

I think anyone engaging in this kind of speculation should keep that in mind.

austin610
Feb 22, 2010, 09:44 PM
Surpass? I don't think so. Catching up.... maybe!:D

ChazUK
Feb 23, 2010, 02:02 PM
<snip>
Remember the end of 2006 when the Zune was announced and everyone was running around spazzing out about how dead Apple was and all the usual Microsoft cheerleaders in the tech press were practically wetting themselves in excitement? And a mere month later, what happened? The iPhone was unveiled and all but nullified the Zune.

I think anyone engaging in this kind of speculation should keep that in mind.
What could Apple possibly add to the iPhone which would equal the tech jump which nullified the Zune?

I can't see any phone manufacturer adding much more than is out there now. Faster CPU's, better radio tech, better network tech, better features (cam/storage etc) & updated software is about as far as it can go from here (from my limited vision).

If Apple ever did create such a generational leap as the Zune to iPhone leap this late in the game I would be heartily impressed with them! :cool:

slotcarbob
Feb 23, 2010, 02:23 PM
Android is going to do what Windows did. Those who like that Windows experience (read "cheap") are going to go in that direction. Those that want the elegant, minimalistic, rock solid OS, continue to stay with iPhone.

One thing I did notice though, in any numbers comparisons. Apple sells one phone, with one OS, and currently with one carrier (a hated one, btw). Android is running on several phones, and many carriers. The actual comparison is flawed. Let me suggest this. If one gets a choice of 'Droid or iP (from a carrier that offers both) , the iP will win out, even if the iP is a bit more expensive.

On the subject of price, there is a good chance that Apple may be able to undercut others because they could be using their own chips, soon.

Lastly, I have tried both types of phones. Are you kidding me? 'Drois software is absolutely awful.

ChazUK
Feb 23, 2010, 02:32 PM
Android is going to do what Windows did. Those who like that Windows experience (read "cheap") are going to go in that direction. Those that want the elegant, minimalistic, rock solid OS, continue to stay with iPhone.
Define "cheap". The only people that save money are the manufacturers who have less licening fees with Android as it is open source. I know for one that the £420 (after 17.5% UK tax) I paid for my Nexus One was anything but "cheap".

One thing I did notice though, in any numbers comparisons. Apple sells one phone, with one OS, and currently with one carrier (a hated one, btw). Android is running on several phones, and many carriers. The actual comparison is flawed. Let me suggest this. If one gets a choice of 'Droid or iP, the iP will win out, even if the iP is a bit more expensive.
What about the rest of the world? iPhone is sold in multiple carriers outside the U.S.A. There is a whole worldwide market to dominate out there. Remember that the original article is citing "the global smart phone market by 2012".

On the subject of price, there is a good chance that Apple may be able to undercut others because they could be using their own chips, soon.
Would that not make the iPhone "cheap"? Nice to know that any money Apple can save to pass on to the customer is defined as "undercutting" yet when HTC, Samsung, Motorola, LG (et;al) are all "cheap" for using Android.

macfan881
Feb 23, 2010, 05:10 PM
The droid Phones are great but the one problem that remains with them that makes the iPhone so much better are the Apps I have not seen one app on the droid market place that says wow that looks great, granted the market place is new but still even the iPhone had better working/Looking apps in its first release than the android.

Cerebrus' Maw
Feb 23, 2010, 06:40 PM
Android is going to do what Windows did. Those who like that Windows experience (read "cheap") are going to go in that direction. Those that want the elegant, minimalistic, rock solid OS, continue to stay with iPhone.


Cheap? Android is simply software. It could run on hardware that cost a billion dollars or substantially less. And I'm pretty sure that there are Android phones out there that actually cost more then the 3GS. Does that make the Iphone a 'cheap' product.

And even if your argument held, why do we always equate expense with quality. There are plenty of cheap products out there that perform significantly better then their so called premium rivals. Every one applauded Apple for lowering the initial target price of the Ipad. But you wouldn't exactly call it cheap in a derogatory way.


Lastly, I have tried both types of phones. Are you kidding me? 'Drois software is absolutely awful.

I don't know do you mean Droid or Android here (Remember, one does not equal the other. Droid is a name of a phone from Motorola, Android is the open software operating system) Droid runs V2.0 of Android. The current Android army is running on 2.1, which everyone agreed was a massive improvement, and generally put it on Iphone level. There are some areas that need improvement, such as the Media player, but then there are other area's where it simply excels.

ChazUK
Feb 24, 2010, 12:07 AM
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (Linux; U; Android 2.1-update1; en-gb; Nexus One Build/ERE27) AppleWebKit/530.17 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/4.0 Mobile Safari/530.17)

The droid Phones are great but the one problem that remains with them that makes the iPhone so much better are the Apps I have not seen one app on the droid market place that says wow that looks great, granted the market place is new but still even the iPhone had better working/Looking apps in its first release than the android.

By "looks great" I take it you are referring to games?



The first game to really impress me on Android is ExZeus (also available on iPhone).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLa11Ah_nFQ

Other than that, general apps I used on my iphone work just as well (if not better thanks to multitasking last.fm comes to mind) on Android.

taskmanager
Feb 24, 2010, 01:02 AM
Apple will come up with something. Their fan base is too strong

jimitrott
Feb 24, 2010, 06:07 AM
Android might surpass the iPhone. The iPhone is limited to 1 device whereas the Android is spanned over many more devices and will continue to branch out.

Insilin1i
Feb 24, 2010, 08:10 AM
Android might surpass the iPhone. The iPhone is limited to 1 device whereas the Android is spanned over many more devices and will continue to branch out.

This could also be a flaw, I would be really annoyed if I bought the best droid available and then a month later another six of them come out better than mine. A lot of people like buying the best available and then riding it out until the next model is available, but when there phone gets replaced by another 40 phones I am not to sure how people will react.

jayenh
Feb 24, 2010, 08:44 AM
This could also be a flaw, I would be really annoyed if I bought the best droid available and then a month later another six of them come out better than mine. A lot of people like buying the best available and then riding it out until the next model is available, but when there phone gets replaced by another 40 phones I am not to sure how people will react.

iphone users are the only people who do this. before the iphone it was pretty well accepted that your new nokia/sony ericson/blackberry/anything is only going to be new for the next 3 months tops until the next model comes out. the mobile industry used to be probably the fastest paced of the tech industries and at it's peak no one gave a crap that there phone manufacturer brought out a new phone every couple of months.

i suppose it was a little easier to swallow with 12 month contracts being the norm until the last couple of years (in the uk at least), but this is the fault of carriers, not the phone manufacturers. they are doing the exact same release cycle they always have done.

edit: not all iphone users, obviously, but probably a larger proportion of iphone users than [insert any phone here] users based on the outrage when the 3gs came out. and that was possibly only because of assumption (the mother of all f... ups) due to the cheap/free (?) upgrade of the 1st gen to 3g. i bet there won't be that outcry this year.

Toneaphone
Feb 25, 2010, 03:39 PM
Even though Android has more potential users, they will never be as successful as the iPhone until they improve their app capabilities. Once they do this, developers will make better apps and games, and customers will buy more. It ultimately boils down to the degree of consumption per user rather than the quantity of potential customers. One person can easily install 150+ apps for the iPhone in no time. Over 3 billion apps have been downloaded to date...It will be an extremely long time until Android meets that milestone.

kdarling
Feb 25, 2010, 04:25 PM
I politely disagree with the idea that lots of apps are necessary to make a smartphone popular. For one thing, I suspect there's not really more than a few thousand unique apps. Everything else is a variation and/or a lesser version of a good one.

Look at RIM. Only about 16,000 apps but they outsell many other phone types.

Look at the iPhone. Over 2,000 tip calculators alone! Nobody needs that many choices.

Windows Mobile has something like 30,000 apps. But out of a half dozen versions of each app, there will always be perhaps just two or three that are recommended between users most often: usually a free one, a paid inexpensive version, and a paid deluxe version.

As long as the major apps are available in a decent version, a phone will sell.

Again, the iPhone is an example. When it first came out, it was arguably just a feature phone with no apps. It had what other phones already had... Google maps, a browser, media player and some widgets. But it had nice ones which were easy to find and use... and that was enough to make it sell.

For that matter, the iPhone sold even without some of what I would consider major apps: VoIP and Slingplayer over 3G, MMS, Pandora in the background, decent home screen, and games.

I would say that the user experience and how it fits with that person's lifestyle, is far more important than apps.

Regards.

macfan881
Feb 25, 2010, 05:16 PM
This could also be a flaw, I would be really annoyed if I bought the best droid available and then a month later another six of them come out better than mine. A lot of people like buying the best available and then riding it out until the next model is available, but when there phone gets replaced by another 40 phones I am not to sure how people will react.

Its going on now I mean look at the Motorola droid when it first came out. then few months after thats out The Nexus One Incredible etc. This is why i hate this because I'm currently looking at a Droid as my next phone, but with the Nexus one and incredible coming out in March then there's the Droid and Eris too it makes it hard to chose one of these phones.

Macist
Feb 26, 2010, 05:20 AM
The thing is, do Apple care about being outpaced sales-wise? They may just be content to make their products smoother and sexier than the better Android phones and be the Mercedes.

If they want to be in the sales race they need to get the 32MB iPhone free on £30 per month contract like other top-end smart phones, not £230 on a £35 per month contract. As Android and Maemo and tothers improve that massve Apple tax won't wash.

They also need an iPhone nano to compete with the HTC hero type phones.

FightTheFuture
Feb 26, 2010, 05:31 AM
The thing is, do Apple care about being outpaced sales-wise? They may just be content to make their products smoother and sexier than the better Android phones and be the Mercedes.

If they want to be in the sales race they need to get the 32MB iPhone free on £30 per month contract like other top-end smart phones, not £230 on a £35 per month contract. As Android and Maemo and tothers improve that massve Apple tax won't wash.

They also need an iPhone nano to compete with the HTC hero type phones.the iPhone is getting outpaced in sales by Blackberry and symbian. nothing will change that. if android eats away at symbian sales, they'll definitely be ahead of the iPhone. but what's more important to Apple? selling 8 million iPhones a quarter? or selling the cheapest phone to everyone?

i'm also wondering, do we think there will be a better android based phone than the nexus one? i'm not talking about adding more pixels or an incremental spec bump. where do they plan to go next? i don't know what apple plans for the 4th gen iPhone, but i doubt it'll just be the iPhone 3.0 + "features that Google has."

charliehustle
Feb 27, 2010, 08:56 PM
It's a bit rich calling people delusional and then coming out with with wish list statements as if they're bound in volumes of 'The Future History of Smartphones vol ll'

The Android market has potential, but only for as long as lazy phone manufacturers, who have never learned how to do operating systems and software, are happy to grab a freebie. This situation is the same as you or me going to a fair and picking up a free dev copy of some new software... and then running a business off its capabilities. No license fee! That's the attraction.

The saved costs derived from having much lower in-house dev costs and shorter route to market make Android a gift. But not without major issues. CylonGlitch [above] makes this very valid point:

"... as many as 40 models of Android devices will ship, . . . "

"How the heck is a developer supposed to support that many different devices? Even if there were 5 different screen resolutions, it would be hard to optimize your app for each. Now different RAM configurations, different CPU's, different everything, OUCH."

It's a ludicrous state of affairs. A wet dream for the armchair geek maybe, but for the non geek buyer, the proposition is entirely different. It already gives me a headache just thinking about it.

With the iPhone, Apple have demonstrated one of the oldest marketing principles still holds true in the 21st Century. If you give people three models to choose from with two colour options, you make the proposition simpler.

But all other manufacturers are still depending on the old marketing model of offering a bewildering array of models to try and catch the entire market. Now, that model has failed already - because it doesn't work. The market is automatically diluted. So why are they still using it?

speedriff [also above] has decided Steve Jobs is a "douche" because he's being "hardheaded" over Flash, while "Other manufacturers are giving AMOLED screens and are getting better and better."

Apple make more profit from all their products than anyone else. One way they do this is by waiting until they can demand a very high proportion of a large enough production of a component [NAND flash memory, screens etc] at the most competitive price, or can manufacture in-house [CPUs]. That's not just good business, it's vital for long term survival.

Wait until June this year and we'll see the new iPhone with a longer [HD aspect ratio] OLED screen. And HTML5 is the future. in reality, Adobe are better candidates for the 'douche' epithet here. If Flash had fewer issues, maybe Apple would add it.

What you need to understand is that Apple is better at seeing, predicting and exploiting the WHOLE picture, than any other company in this game. And anyone who seriously thinks a disparate group of not for profit developers and a market full of lazy manufacturers with a 19th Century sales mentality are going to win this one, is simply not even looking at it properly.

You obviously have no formal education when it comes to the world of finance, so I'm not sure why you're even making comments about such things.

The simple fact that Apple has to make $23 billion more in revenue compared to Google, just so they can have $2.7 billion more in gross profit is nothing to brag about.

Go do more homework.

The Final Cut
Feb 28, 2010, 12:49 AM
Android to Surpass iPhone in Market Share by 2012?

That's the second insanely improbable hypothesis for that year:)

robbyx
Feb 28, 2010, 01:02 AM
Erm.. you're being closed minded.

The SDK is limited only to the Apple OS, granted, it relies on hooks, however, you are alienating a hell of a lot of people from developing on the platform.

Hardly. If you're that serious about getting into iPhone development, pony up $1200 for an iMac and run Windows on it too. Apple will never port their dev tools to the PC. It makes no sense at all.

macfan881
Feb 28, 2010, 01:32 AM
Hardly. If you're that serious about getting into iPhone development, pony up $1200 for an iMac and run Windows on it too. Apple will never port their dev tools to the PC. It makes no sense at all.

uh yeah you are specailly like that type of attitude if Apple Never opened iTunes/iPod to windows computers do you really think the Music Store would have had 10B downloads no.. well eventually but it would never have been so quickly as they have done. Trust me Apple will eventually open up to windows on the iPhone Sdk the iPhone is only 3 years old.

ReyesJonathan
Feb 28, 2010, 09:21 PM
Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight, a cupcake is going to take down iPhone?

:D:D:D:D

SongtotheKing
Mar 23, 2010, 05:01 PM
im not a phone genius but i am pretty sure the Android is cross-carrier. If it surpasses the iPhone any time soon, it will be because of that. But i guarantee that if the iPhone went cross-carrier as well, we would see a HUGE jump in sales in which Android will plummet. Think about it. a REALLY BIG reason a lot of people go with the Android is because the iPhone isnt available on their carrier.

IMHO

Rodimus Prime
Mar 23, 2010, 05:14 PM
im not a phone genius but i am pretty sure the Android is cross-carrier. If it surpasses the iPhone any time soon, it will be because of that. But i guarantee that if the iPhone went cross-carrier as well, we would see a HUGE jump in sales in which Android will plummet. Think about it. a REALLY BIG reason a lot of people go with the Android is because the iPhone isnt available on their carrier.

IMHO

iPhone has already gone cross carriers in other parts of the world and we did not see a huge jump.

Android is going to pass the iPhone because of choices and on multiple types of hardware. Some people want a hardware keyboard other want all touch screen, Some want smaller sizes and so on.

iPhone is take it or leave it. Android phones you have a lot more choices on hardware.

God of Biscuits
Mar 23, 2010, 05:21 PM
Probably, unless Apple recognizes the competition and responds by:
- SDK that can execute on other platforms like Windows or Linux and that uses a more user-friendly and intuitive language than Objective-C

You clearly have no idea what you're talking about.

What you really mean is something more popular. And that's certainly NOT the same as "more user friendly" or "more intuitive".

Are you even an Objective C programmer?

At any rate, what you *are* is the bazillionth person who's said that the key to Apple's success in the future is to do what everyone else is doing.

Riiiiiiight.

mattk3650
Apr 5, 2010, 09:23 PM
Wanna know the reason behind this. People on Verizon don't have the iPhone and aren't leaving the company so they just buy the next best thing.

If there's no iPhone on Verizon before 2011 I'm getting a Droid so hurry up Apple.

macrookie101
Jun 14, 2010, 01:42 PM
Theres one thing about Apple and thats they know how to integrate software and hardware to make a very slick user experience so i wouldn't rule Apple out :cool:

kdarling
Jun 14, 2010, 02:31 PM
If you want to program for the iPhone without buying a Mac or learning Objective-C, you can use DragonFire:

http://www.dragonfiresdk.com

It's a very (very) abbreviated C++ like API with screen and button and image suppoert, that you can use to program under free Visual Studio on a PC. Even has an iPhone emulator.

Then you click a button and it apparently sends a internally translated C to Objective-C source up to their Mac servers, which compile it for the iPhone and sends it back signed with their developer tag.

The SDK itself is something like $50 for a local-test-only version, and $100 for the full compile-for-the-real-device version.

For a small price you can submit it under their name to the App Store. Or something like that. Haven't tried it yet.

kallie
Jun 14, 2010, 04:08 PM
Every phone that comes out after the iPhone is supposed to surpass the iPhone by 20**. This is getting old. It took how many years for someone to beat up on Nokia? That's right, it'll be a long time before you see a dent in the iPhone's armor.

I'm going to make a new smartphone next week. It's an iPhone-killer. Guaranteed.

According to the market trends nothing can surpass the iphone boom from the market.
http://tinytwitt.com/content/33/wowsmile.gif

Even ipad has to wait a little time to surpass.

FarNorth
Jun 16, 2010, 09:26 AM
Bear in mind that Apple/A T & T were VERY liberal letting people upgrade out of 3G phones, allowing folks to preorder with 6-9-12 months left on contract, a reversal of past practice. Also note that Foxconn gave their workers two pay raises in the last few weeks that add up to 122%. That money came for somewhere so clearly Apple as taking no chances on a supply interruption.

They are very agressively keeping old customers while courting new - in 12 months, we are going to say that the iPhone 4 was the single most successful product Apple history.

digitalaviator
Jun 21, 2010, 05:52 AM
http://www.macrumors.com/images/macrumorsthreadlogo.gif (http://www.macrumors.com/iphone/2009/10/07/android-to-surpass-iphone-in-market-share-by-2012/)

Computerworld reports (http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9139026/Android_to_grab_No._2_spot_by_2012_says_Gartner) that research firm Gartner is forecasting significant growth in Google's Android operating system for smart phones, noting that it expects Android to surpass Apple's iPhone to claim the number two spot behind Symbian OS with 14.5% of the global smart phone market by 2012.The predicted margin is small, however, with Apple predicted to grab 13.7% of the smart phone market in 2012. Both companies are forecasted to take significant share from Symbian, which currently holds approximately 50% market share but is expected to fall to 39% over that time.

Article Link: Android to Surpass iPhone in Market Share by 2012? (http://www.macrumors.com/iphone/2009/10/07/android-to-surpass-iphone-in-market-share-by-2012/)

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.....not likely

TorontoLRT
Jun 21, 2010, 06:49 AM
^Ummmm... Is there any logic to that, or are you just "hahahaing" to get attention?

G58
Jun 21, 2010, 11:50 PM
You obviously have no formal education when it comes to the world of finance, so I'm not sure why you're even making comments about such things.

The simple fact that Apple has to make $23 billion more in revenue compared to Google, just so they can have $2.7 billion more in gross profit is nothing to brag about.

Go do more homework.

That's a really dumb statement. Google don't make anything, and they don't know how to sell things. They shut down the Nexus one web site! It's easy to sell space you own and make more profit.

And you don't 'make' revenue. I can't be bothered to check your dumb figures.