2 Year Apple laptop predictions, are they close?

[johnbro23]

I was bored one day, plus I like planning for stuff, so I decided to make a good estimate of where Apple laptops are going to be at in the summer of 2006, when I'm going off to college and buying either an iBoook or PB. I went to the Buyer's Guide page on this site, and looked up what the laptops were back in summer of 2002. They were a lot slower and more expensive. Well heres what I found:

iBook

Price ranges of 12" and 14" for:
2002: $1499-1799
2004: $1099-1499
2006: $999-1249*

Processors of 12" and 14" for:
2002: 600-700 MHz G3
2004: 1-1.2 GHz G4
2006: 1.6-2.0 GHz* G5

PowerBook

Price ranges of the two 15" configurations:
2002: $2499-3199
2004: $1999-2499
2006: $1599-1999*

Processors of the two 15" configurations:
2002: 667-800 MHz G4
2004: 1.33-1.5 GHz G4
2006: 2.6-2.8 GHz* G5

*I found the ratio of 2002 to 2004 and applyed it to 2004 to 2006 to project the numbers for 2006

So tell me what you think. To me, those numbers look pretty damn good. I think I'll take a $1599 2.6 GHz PowerBook :rolleyes:

[macreator]

Well I'm a bit curious as to when we'll see a G5 in a PB. Any thoughts? Nice work by the way. Although I suppose the first PBG5 models will be expensive eh?

[jsw]

I think the prices will go back up when the G5's come out - closer to 2002 prices. Just my guess.

[Abstract]

Cool.

Comparisons like this always fascinate me, and I think you may be spot on for the PB speed predictions as well.

[johnbro23]

Yea, I just thought the speeds would be a little slower than I predicted, since the G5 PowerMacs arent even on schedule (w/ the whole 3 GHz thing). I hope the prices keep going down though. That would be awesome to be able to get a laptop for under a grand.

[Dr. Dastardly]

I think the prices will go back up when the G5's come out - closer to 2002 prices. Just my guess.
Agreed. But on a bright side I'm willing to place money that the G5 PB will happen in 2005. I won't but I'm willing to. :p

[johnbro23]

Agreed. But on a bright side I'm willing to place money that the G5 PB will happen in 2005. I won't but I'm willing to. :p

You could be right, but I bet they'll go back down as Rev B G5's come out. Hopefully we'll see Rev C G5 PowerBooks by 2006.

[ddtlm]

johnbro23:

You probably underestimate Moto. Their G4's with on-die memory controllers will probably offer a price/performance that Apple can't pass up at the iBook level, and they were talking about some sort of enhanced new core as well. I would expect that new core to aim at more power-sensitive markets than IBM is aiming at with their new development.

http://e-www.motorola.com/files/archives/doc/roadmap/PPCRMAP.pdf

I do not expect IBM to take over the entire Apple range any time soon with derivitives of Power4's and Power5's.

[ddtlm]

Woops, looks like I was confused about Moto's next chip. People had been saying it had on-die memory controllers but now that I actually looked for myself I see that is not true. Moto says:

Taking a step up in performance, customers may leverage the e600 core and corresponding e600 platform. The e600 core is instruction set and pin compatible with the G4 core used in the award-winning, high-performance MPC74xx family of PowerPC processors; however the e600 core is planned to scale beyond 2 GHz and to support Chip Multiprocessing (CMP).
http://e-www.motorola.com/webapp/sps/site/overview.jsp?nodeId=02VS0l72156402

This means it will use the same old FSB as it currently does. Leaves open the possibility of quad-core CPU upgrades (dual dual core chips) for G4 PMacs though. Not that a 133mhz or 166mhz FSB is gona do well feeding them all. :(

OK, so its the "e700" that people should be watching, but who knows when its gona arrive. Oh well, return to anticipating G5's in iBooks. ;)

[johnbro23]

I was just thinking about this post I made today...

I think the numbers are still looking pretty good. I'd say the processor speeds are going to be slightly less because of the troubles with PowerBook G5's.

But anyways, what do you think? Do you think they're close?

[deputy_doofy]

PowerBook

Price ranges of the two 15" configurations:
2002: $2499-3199
2004: $1999-2499
2006: $1599-1999*

Processors of the two 15" configurations:
2002: 667-800 MHz G4
2004: 1.33-1.5 GHz G4
2006: 2.6-2.8 GHz* G5


I like your prediction but I'm not sure reality will follow.
The PowerBooks, although cheaper, tend to stay roughly in the same area. Also, when Apple has nothing substantial on a particular release, the prices are a bit cheaper than usual (ahem.... 1.5GHz -> 1.67GHz almost a year later).
Secondly, I think the G5 prediction is too high. Based on production problems and heat, if we do see G5's they'll probably be closer to 1.5GHz - 2.5GHz at best. There's also the possibility that Freescale will release the dual-core G4's, but honestly, I have yet to see Freescale DO anything that Motorola could not do. The dual-cores are all talk - no product.
Anyway.... ranting aside, I hope your predictions are true. they are nice numbers. :)

[auxplage]

This means it will use the same old FSB as it currently does. Leaves open the possibility of quad-core CPU upgrades (dual dual core chips) for G4 PMacs though. Not that a 133mhz or 166mhz FSB is gona do well feeding them all. :(
)

I could have sworn I read that the newest processor from Freescale that would be used in PowerBooks (if used) is dualcore and has a 200 mhz bus (20% improvement over 167). I cannot remember the model though.

[Mord]

I think the prices will go back up when the G5's come out - closer to 2002 prices. Just my guess.

if anything prices will go down, g5's are cheaper than G4's

[ddtlm]

auxplage, johnbro23:

In the months since this thread was started, some more info from Freescale surfaced which clears things up:

http://www.freescale.com/webapp/sps/site/overview.jsp?nodeId=018rH3bTdG7249

Hector:

While some G5's are going to be cheaper than some G4's, it seems silly to think that is true in general. Also, the G5 system controller is bound to be more expensive, the motherboard to support it is more complex, and the cooling system is more complex (due to thermal density, if not total wattage to dissipate).