Fear of Fraud come November...

[blackfox]

From NYT op-ed piece...

Fear of Fraud


By PAUL KRUGMAN

Published: July 27, 2004



t's election night, and early returns suggest trouble for the incumbent. Then, mysteriously, the vote count stops and observers from the challenger's campaign see employees of a voting-machine company, one wearing a badge that identifies him as a county official, typing instructions at computers with access to the vote-tabulating software.


When the count resumes, the incumbent pulls ahead. The challenger demands an investigation. But there are no ballots to recount, and election officials allied with the incumbent refuse to release data that could shed light on whether there was tampering with the electronic records.

This isn't a paranoid fantasy. It's a true account of a recent election in Riverside County, Calif., reported by Andrew Gumbel of the British newspaper The Independent. Mr. Gumbel's full-length report, printed in Los Angeles City Beat, makes hair-raising reading not just because it reinforces concerns about touch-screen voting, but also because it shows how easily officials can stonewall after a suspect election.

Some states, worried about the potential for abuse with voting machines that leave no paper trail, have banned their use this November. But Florida, which may well decide the presidential race, is not among those states, and last month state officials rejected a request to allow independent audits of the machines' integrity. A spokesman for Gov. Jeb Bush accused those seeking audits of trying to "undermine voters' confidence," and declared, "The governor has every confidence in the Department of State and the Division of Elections."

Should the public share that confidence? Consider the felon list.

Florida law denies the vote to convicted felons. In 2000 the state hired a firm to purge supposed felons from the list of registered voters; these voters were turned away from the polls. After the election, determined by 537 votes, it became clear that thousands of people had been wrongly disenfranchised. Since those misidentified as felons were disproportionately Democratic-leaning African-Americans, these errors may have put George W. Bush in the White House.

This year, Florida again hired a private company - Accenture, which recently got a homeland security contract worth up to $10 billion - to prepare a felon list. Remembering 2000, journalists sought copies. State officials stonewalled, but a judge eventually ordered the list released.

The Miami Herald quickly discovered that 2,100 citizens who had been granted clemency, restoring their voting rights, were nonetheless on the banned-voter list. Then The Sarasota Herald-Tribune discovered that only 61 of more than 47,000 supposed felons were Hispanic. So the list would have wrongly disenfranchised many legitimate African-American voters, while wrongly enfranchising many Hispanic felons. It escaped nobody's attention that in Florida, Hispanic voters tend to support Republicans.

After first denying any systematic problem, state officials declared it an innocent mistake. They told Accenture to match a list of registered voters to a list of felons, flagging anyone whose name, date of birth and race was the same on both lists. They didn't realize, they said, that this would automatically miss felons who identified themselves as Hispanic because that category exists on voter rolls but not in state criminal records.

But employees of a company that prepared earlier felon lists say that they repeatedly warned state election officials about that very problem.

Let's not be coy. Jeb Bush says he won't allow an independent examination of voting machines because he has "every confidence" in his handpicked election officials. Yet those officials have a history of slipshod performance on other matters related to voting and somehow their errors always end up favoring Republicans. Why should anyone trust their verdict on the integrity of voting machines, when another convenient mistake could deliver a Republican victory in a high-stakes national election?

This shouldn't be a partisan issue. Think about what a tainted election would do to America's sense of itself, and its role in the world. In the face of official stonewalling, doubters probably wouldn't be able to prove one way or the other whether the vote count was distorted - but if the result looked suspicious, most of the world and many Americans would believe the worst. I'll write soon about what can be done in the few weeks that remain, but here's a first step: if Governor Bush cares at all about the future of the nation, as well as his family's political fortunes, he will allow that independent audit.

I find this pretty disturbing, especially in light of there being an actual example of vote-manipulation.

Comments? Analyses? Rants? Dismissals?

[mischief]

So long as we sit by and allow elections to be run without any real standards for security and rely on vendors to provide Lowest Bidder voting solutions this will be the case.

[zimv20]

So long as we sit by and allow elections to be run without any real standards for security and rely on vendors to provide Lowest Bidder voting solutions this will be the case.
is it simply shoddy worksmanship, or is there something more sinister going on?

[blackfox]

is it simply shoddy worksmanship, or is there something more sinister going on?
It is difficult to say...still, I can comment on something by way of analogy:

If you have a jewelery store in which the door is left unlocked...if it is robbed, is it the owner's (your) fault for not taking the measures to secure his business, or is it the opportunistic robber's who finds an open door to a opportunity for self-enrichment?

OK, gotta stop with the bad analogies, but perhaps you get the idea...

[zimv20]

It is difficult to say...
not here. i'm quite certain much of this is by design.

imo, one cannot dismiss the overwhelming percentages of disenfranchised democratic voters in FL as a statistical anomaly.

[blackfox]

not here. i'm quite certain much of this is by design.

imo, one cannot dismiss the overwhelming percentages of disenfranchised democratic voters in FL as a statistical anomaly.
ahh...so you were being rhetorical...well, I mean not sure as to the extent of how much was by design and how much by simple opportunity...also, if by design, who's design? Gov. Bush's, Florida's election commitee, the Florida GOP, The National GOP, the Bush Administration, the Electronic Voter machine Brass?...

[zimv20]

if by design, who's design? Gov. Bush's, Florida's election commitee, the Florida GOP, The National GOP, the Bush Administration, the Electronic Voter machine Brass?...
yes, yes, yes, not sure, yes, yes

[mischief]

As terrible as it is to say this: Once is a mistake, twice is coincidence, three times is a pattern. Unless one of you can unearth a direct connection between the shoddy execution and the Gov. Bush StateHouse OR dig up a third repetition of this in FLorida under the same administration there is a tenuous case for the (obvious) machination model.

Unfortunately the obvious choices (Kennedy was taken out by an alliance of his enemies, OJ Killed his wife or hired someone who did, etc.) are often the hardest to prove. In the case of a violation of Civil Rights En Masse we need PROOF.

To those of you who have the time to research.... please dig deeply for cross-referenceable evidence of a third example.

[blackfox]

Well, there could of course be a third example come November...

Just out of curiousity, if Florida does go GOP in November under perhaps questionable circumstances, what do you believe will be the reaction, course of action for resolving/clarifying the issue? (assuming Florida is again decisive in determining the Presidency)

Supreme Court, law suits against Florida, civil suits?

what might be the potential political fallout and media coverage of such a scenario?

[Chip NoVaMac]

So long as we sit by and allow elections to be run without any real standards for security and rely on vendors to provide Lowest Bidder voting solutions this will be the case.

Sort of like companies making money off of those that threaten our safety by running red lights. Why are not those jobs given to county or state employees, so that more money goes back to where it will do the most good.

[blackfox]

I couldn't decide whether to post here, or in Durandal's thread, as we both cover similar topics...but when in doubt, choose your own thread ;)

Anyway, to add to the Florida situation, I read either yesterday or today in an OP-ED either in the NYT or WashPost (how's that for concise?), that Gov. Bush and the Florida GOP have been sending out notices to their party members to vote by absentee ballot come Nov. so that there will be a paper trail (if needed)

...do I need to connect the dots here?

[Colirio]

Honestly, there is voter fraud in every election. Dead people voting, missing ballots, etc. The reason this one became such a huge issue is because it was felt that it determined the outcome of the election in this case whereas the others were just "annoyances."

There was no way that the GOP plotted anthing along these lines in Florida in the last election because there was no way of knowing that the decision would come down to that of Florida. Plus, it was actually Gore's team that registered the complaint and not Bush's team to start the whole fiasco. NOT TO MENTION that there were thousands of military ballots that were cast aside due to the policies that the military had been using since the 1950's.

In any case, I think both conservatives and liberals (or whatver term we use nowadays) alike would agree that there will most likely be controversy in the next election in Florida due to political games. Each side will of course blame it on the other. LOL

[blackfox]

Honestly, there is voter fraud in every election. Dead people voting, missing ballots, etc. The reason this one became such a huge issue is because it was felt that it determined the outcome of the election in this case whereas the others were just "annoyances."

There was no way that the GOP plotted anthing along these lines in Florida in the last election because there was no way of knowing that the decision would come down to that of Florida. Plus, it was actually Gore's team that registered the complaint and not Bush's team to start the whole fiasco. NOT TO MENTION that there were thousands of military ballots that were cast aside due to the policies that the military had been using since the 1950's.

In any case, I think both conservatives and liberals (or whatver term we use nowadays) alike would agree that there will most likely be controversy in the next election in Florida due to political games. Each side will of course blame it on the other. LOL

Well, first of all, cynically noting that there is always voter fraud does nothing to address the fact that there needs to be some attempt at fixing said problem.

I don't want to get into the dispute over the 2000 election and Florida...I feel it was a little shady, others don't...either way it is water under the bridge...EXCEPT that it should've enacted meaningful ballot reform for elections, which it hasn't...and computerized voting machines are actually a step backwards in my opinion...oh, and any political strategist would've told you that Florida would play a decisive role in the 2000 election (as indeed it did) so there was room for purposeful manipulation...

Regardless, I am talking about the 2004 Election, and the activities of the Florida government do raise an eyebrow as to some shady goings on, which should worry anyone with a vested interest in our representative Democracy, even if Florida may not be as decisive as it was in 2000. This is beyond Partisan into the very heart of our Political system. I feel someone needs to be held accountable, and that media attention should be focused on this now, not later in a post-election chaos...

[Sayhey]

Plus, it was actually Gore's team that registered the complaint and not Bush's team to start the whole fiasco.

Ehh ... please explain to me how Gore calling for a recount started the deletion of thousands of eligible voters from the voting rolls months earlier? What am I missing?

[Colirio]

I wasn't saying that Gore SHOULDN'T have called for a recount. I was saying that it was his team that initialized the recount due to a faulty system. There were plenty of other places of interest, too from both parties that should have demanded reforms in the ballot system but didn't and nobody cared about THOSE discrepencies. Showed to me that BOTH parties were simply thinking about one thing only and it wasn't to ensure fairness.

And Gore didn't start the deletion of votes and neither did Bush. That was what PROMPTED them to call for a recount initially was what I was trying to suggest.


And Blackfox, you are absolutely correct that it should have prompted a reform in the system. However, even with the reform, I still contend that there will be a discrepency of some kind, somewhere; perhaps even in another state. Now that it has been shown to be a corruptible source that can harbor doubts, I think many people will exploit it not only by using it to corrupt the voting methods, but, by also accusing the opposing party of doing so. I tend to think it opened a new avenue of doubt and blame in which to play politics.

[Sayhey]

I wasn't saying that Gore SHOULDN'T have called for a recount. I was saying that it was his team that initialized the recount due to a faulty system. There were plenty of other places of interest, too from both parties that should have demanded reforms in the ballot system but didn't and nobody cared about THOSE discrepencies. Showed to me that BOTH parties were simply thinking about one thing only and it wasn't to ensure fairness.

And Gore didn't start the deletion of votes and neither did Bush. That was what PROMPTED them to call for a recount initially was what I was trying to suggest.

If your point is that Gore should have asked for a statewide recount from the beginning, then I think you are right. The irony is that only through a statewide recount would Gore have won the vote.

However, you miss the point that it was through the system set up by Jeb Bush and Ms. Harris that the voters, mostly those in Florida's black communities, were deprived of their legal right to vote. They were denied that right in many thousands - more than enough to have swung the vote to the Governor's brother. You are far to ready to dismiss these facts, it seems to me, when if it had occurred in any other nation we would be calling "fraud" from the rooftops.

[blackfox]

<on a rooftop> Riiiiicolaaaaa...ahem...FRAUD...<on a rooftop>

[Sayhey]

<on a rooftop> Riiiiicolaaaaa...ahem...FRAUD...<on a rooftop>

where is that "rimshot" sound effect when you need it? :p

[Colirio]

However, you miss the point that it was through the system set up by Jeb Bush and Ms. Harris that the voters, mostly those in Florida's black communities, were deprived of their legal right to vote. They were denied that right in many thousands - more than enough to have swung the vote to the Governor's brother. You are far to ready to dismiss these facts, it seems to me, when if it had occurred in any other nation we would be calling "fraud" from the rooftops.

Well, I don't want to get into a whole discussion of this either, but, when they called for African-Americans who had supposedly been denied the right to vote, amazingly they were never able to produce a single witness to whom this had happened...

[Chip NoVaMac]

I couldn't decide whether to post here, or in Durandal's thread, as we both cover similar topics...but when in doubt, choose your own thread ;)

Anyway, to add to the Florida situation, I read either yesterday or today in an OP-ED either in the NYT or WashPost (how's that for concise?), that Gov. Bush and the Florida GOP have been sending out notices to their party members to vote by absentee ballot come Nov. so that there will be a paper trail (if needed)

...do I need to connect the dots here?

This from a campaign that faces a vote in a state that is controlled by his brother.

What surprises me is that some say that Jeb is the heir to G.w. in the White House. How he has mismanaged Florida, I can't see how the American people could vote for him. But then again, the voting public should be checked for intelligence.

[Chip NoVaMac]

Well, first of all, cynically noting that there is always voter fraud does nothing to address the fact that there needs to be some attempt at fixing said problem.

I don't want to get into the dispute over the 2000 election and Florida...I feel it was a little shady, others don't...either way it is water under the bridge...EXCEPT that it should've enacted meaningful ballot reform for elections, which it hasn't...and computerized voting machines are actually a step backwards in my opinion...oh, and any political strategist would've told you that Florida would play a decisive role in the 2000 election (as indeed it did) so there was room for purposeful manipulation...

Regardless, I am talking about the 2004 Election, and the activities of the Florida government do raise an eyebrow as to some shady goings on, which should worry anyone with a vested interest in our representative Democracy, even if Florida may not be as decisive as it was in 2000. This is beyond Partisan into the very heart of our Political system. I feel someone needs to be held accountable, and that media attention should be focused on this now, not later in a post-election chaos...

Blackfox, sometime we don't agree. In this case I think we do.

I was taught in my day (I am now just 46 (July 25)), that you commit a felony you lose the right to vote. I understand that this was done to be a deterrent to committing a crime. But there was a moment in our history that wanted to make an even bigger statement.

Maybe the solution is to have felons "prove" that they are worthy to vote. Holding a "long term" job. No further crimes, even misdemeanors. Also giving back to the community.

[blackfox]

This from a campaign that faces a vote in a state that is controlled by his brother.

What surprises me is that some say that Jeb is the heir to G.w. in the White House. How he has mismanaged Florida, I can't see how the American people could vote for him. But then again, the voting public should be checked for intelligence.
I don't think intelligence is the issue...it is one of Integrity and moral fiber...I know you are referring to the public as opposed to the candidates, but I hold the former less to blame than the latter who willfully manipulate the perceptions of the former (that wasn't unwieldy).

The human mind and perceptual apparati cannot keep evolutionary pace with technological advancements, and it is still a natural tendency to believe what you see and read, both from a instinctual and cultural level.

Am I getting too pseudo-intellectual here?

[Chip NoVaMac]

If your point is that Gore should have asked for a statewide recount from the beginning, then I think you are right. The irony is that only through a statewide recount would Gore have won the vote.

However, you miss the point that it was through the system set up by Jeb Bush and Ms. Harris that the voters, mostly those in Florida's black communities, were deprived of their legal right to vote. They were denied that right in many thousands - more than enough to have swung the vote to the Governor's brother. You are far to ready to dismiss these facts, it seems to me, when if it had occurred in any other nation we would be calling "fraud" from the rooftops.

And as long as we remain divided as a nation as to what we need in a leader, we will have more Florida's in our future. Though to be honest, to me it appears that Jeb is trying to stack the deck to his brothers and the RNC's advantage.

[Chip NoVaMac]

Well, I don't want to get into a whole discussion of this either, but, when they called for African-Americans who had supposedly been denied the right to vote, amazingly they were never able to produce a single witness to whom this had happened...

I can't quote the news sources that counters your comments, but can you?

[pseudobrit]

Well, I don't want to get into a whole discussion of this either, but, when they called for African-Americans who had supposedly been denied the right to vote, amazingly they were never able to produce a single witness to whom this had happened...

Really? Where do you get your (bad) info from?

http://www.cnn.com/2001/ALLPOLITICS/03/09/florida.election/

[Chip NoVaMac]

I don't think intelligence is the issue...it is one of Integrity and moral fiber...I know you are referring to the public as opposed to the candidates, but I hold the former less to blame than the latter who willfully manipulate the perceptions of the former (that wasn't unwieldy).

The human mind and perceptual apparati cannot keep evolutionary pace with technological advancements, and it is still a natural tendency to believe what you see and read, both from a instinctual and cultural level.

Am I getting too pseudo-intellectual here?

Or maybe we tend to vote by the "sound bite"; than the real issues as we see them?

[Duff-Man]

Duff-Man says...another rare venture into this forum....people seem so afraid of the Bush camp committing some kind of fraud...but the Democrats need to be watched just as closely as their noses are not exactly squeaky clean either....1960 election anyone? I'd prefer a Kerry win...but I'd like to see it be a fair win and it is naive to think that the Democrats are not as capable of deception as are the Republicans.....they both need to clean up their acts....oh yeah!

[blackfox]

Very true duff-man (nice to see you in here BTW) and I am the first to agree, it is just in this instance in seems to be the GOP to blame (at least the Florida chapter and/or the Bush connection)...although I generally vote Democratic, this is a question of fairness, and I would be among those complaining if a Democratic candidate was seen to be subvertin the rules...

...This is not about individual candidates, or Partisanship or even this Election...it is about the sanctity of our very system of Governance. That is something that everyone, as an American, has a vested interest in.

There is no honor in cheating, simple as that.

[Chip NoVaMac]

Duff-Man says...another rare venture into this forum....people seem so afraid of the Bush camp committing some kind of fraud...but the Democrats need to be watched just as closely as their noses are not exactly squeaky clean either....1960 election anyone? I'd prefer a Kerry win...but I'd like to see it be a fair win and it is naive to think that the Democrats are not as capable of deception as are the Republicans.....they both need to clean up their acts....oh yeah!

Duff Man, I rarely comment since you seemed to locked in to a "childish" persona - yet you have a strong point.

Neither party can take the high ground on the voter issue. Though Kennedy happened in 1960, and the Bush fiasco happened in 2000. That is the major difference.

I personally think that after 20+ years you need to give way to history. Four years ago, you have to mark it off to politics. I say that despite of an outcome; either in my chosen Parties favor, or the opposing Party.