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MacBytes
Nov 17, 2009, 09:38 PM
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Category: Opinion/Interviews
Link: How Microsoft Blew It With Windows Mobile (http://www.macbytes.com/link.php?sid=20091117223835)
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Posted on MacBytes.com (http://www.macbytes.com)
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DMann
Nov 17, 2009, 11:48 PM
With Windows Mobile’s market share plummeting to 7.9 percent, while Apple’s global mobile market share grew to 17.1 percent, one can only wonder what Steve Ballmer meant when he said:

"... There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance."

http://www.macinquirer.com/files/ballmerposter.jpg
The Prophet of the 21st Century

SPUY767
Nov 18, 2009, 12:19 AM
MS blew it by assuming that desktop ubiquity would lead to mobile ubiquity. MS assumed that users would just use windows mobile because they used it on the desktop. Microsoft is often a corporation devoid of true innovation. Most microsoft products that aren't one-offs have been designed by committee snoozefests. Apple came to market with innovation at the exact moment that the consumer wanted it. Everyone else was suddenly 2 or more years behind and playing catch up.

jayducharme
Nov 18, 2009, 09:59 AM
A related article about Android points out many of the same problems:

“Instead of working on updates to our apps, we find we are trying to make each app work for multiple versions of the OS and different hardware capabilities,” says Chris Fagan, co-founder at Froogloid, an Android focused application development company. “We are not complaining about all the growth, but if you are a small or a new Android developer coming in and trying to learn I could see your head exploding. It would be overwhelming,” he says.

And I love this quote:

“Microsoft believes the Windows brand is very strong, and consumers associate the Windows brand with enabling them to do what they need to do in their digital lives, at least on the PC,” Rubin said

Really? So how else are they going to manage their "digital lives" on a PC? With Linux, perhaps?

Apple may tightly control their products, but the aim is to create a flawless user experience. That's infinitely more difficult when there's no control over the hardware.

BongoBanger
Nov 18, 2009, 11:30 AM
With Windows Mobile’s market share plummeting to 7.9 percent, while Apple’s global mobile market share grew to 17.1 percent, one can only wonder what Steve Ballmer meant when he said:

"... There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance."

Probably that Apple would get 2-3% of the global cellphone market, not smartphones, which is actually what he said. Mind you, it's the most profitable 2-3%.

He's still spot on though and this is apparent if you actually read the whole quote.

Liquorpuki
Nov 18, 2009, 03:00 PM
Probably that Apple would get 2-3% of the global cellphone market, not smartphones, which is actually what he said. Mind you, it's the most profitable 2-3%.

He's still spot on though and this is apparent if you actually read the whole quote.

"There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance," said Ballmer. "It's a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I'd prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get."

You can't really tell which market he's referring to at all. But as far as phones are concerned, Windows Mobile is ONLY installed in smartphones, so when he compares Apple's 2-3% to Microsoft's 60-80%, it makes sense to think he's talking about the smartphone market

jav6454
Nov 18, 2009, 07:00 PM
Microsoft blew it long ago.... not just now...

nastebu
Nov 18, 2009, 07:12 PM
"There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance," said Ballmer.

Probably the key phrase is "significant market share." I don't think anyone could claim that Apple doesn't have "significant market share." The number compared to the overall handset market is small, but the impact that the iPhone has had on the market is certainly "significant."

BongoBanger
Nov 19, 2009, 04:06 AM
You can't really tell which market he's referring to at all.

"But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold."

Actually you can as that number refers to the overall cellphone market. Of course he's still delusional about WinMo but he's not actually wrong about the iPhone's market share.

Liquorpuki
Nov 19, 2009, 11:33 PM
"But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold."

Actually you can as that number refers to the overall cellphone market. Of course he's still delusional about WinMo but he's not actually wrong about the iPhone's market share.

Then he's not only delusional but he's confused too. Jobs predicted the iPhone would capture 1% global marketshare. I don't get why Ballmer, in his hatred for the iPhone, would triple that number.

DMann
Nov 20, 2009, 01:53 AM
Probably that Apple would get 2-3% of the global cellphone market, not smartphones, which is actually what he said. Mind you, it's the most profitable 2-3%.

He's still [momentarily] spot on though and this is apparent if you actually read the whole quote.

Are you, then, suggesting that the attainment of 2-3% of global market share, within a two year period, is not significant?

Why don't we, then, take a closer look at Worldwide Smartphone Sales, from 2007-2008:

http://gigapple.files.wordpress.com/2009/07/gartner-research-2007-smartphone-os-market-share1.png

http://gigapple.files.wordpress.com/2009/07/gartner-research-2008-smartphone-os-market-share2.png

Surely, the Smartphone Market is one which MS has a significant interest in. Do you feel that iPhone's 8.2% sales in 2008 vs. WinMo's 11.8% ought to be dismissed as insignificant as well?

It would be of no surprise if Steve Ballmer were to further contend that the 66.61% of iPhone's total Smartphone share on the Web is merely a "rounding error," "a blip on the radar screen,'" especially when compared to WinMo's 6.91%.

http://backoffice.ajb.com.au//images/news/mobilebrowsing.png

I wonder what his take on this would be?

You can't really tell which market he's referring to at all. But as far as phones are concerned, Windows Mobile is ONLY installed in smartphones, so when he compares Apple's 2-3% to Microsoft's 60-80%, it makes sense to think he's talking about the smartphone market

You are quite right, this is a prime example of typical "Ballmer Speak," mixing market sectors to serve his purpose.

Probably the key phrase is "significant market share." I don't think anyone could claim that Apple doesn't have "significant market share." The number compared to the overall handset market is small, but the impact that the iPhone has had on the market is certainly "significant."

This is the whole point. Within the span of two years, the momentum of iPhone sales has been quite significant.

Then he's not only delusional but he's confused too. Jobs predicted the iPhone would capture 1% global marketshare. I don't get why Ballmer, in his hatred for the iPhone, would triple that number.

Yes, Ballmer's delusions are consistently self-serving - this is one thing he tends to do quite well.