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skunk
Aug 13, 2004, 06:36 PM
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3562388.stm
Crude oil prices jump to new high

Oil prices continued to break records on Friday, driven higher by the threat of unrest in Venezuela over the weekend and of sabotage to pipelines in Iraq. A fire and explosion at a BP refinery in the US also fanned concerns about disruption to supplies. US light crude closed trading up $1.08 at a new 21 year high of $46.58, after touching $46.65. Brent crude in London also hit a record of $43.88, up $1.59.

Analysts have warned that oil may rise further, even reaching $50 a barrel. "None of the fears about supply have gone away and demand growth shows no signs of slowing," said Geoff Pyne, an oil industry analyst. "That makes it a difficult market to sell."

Maxed out

The world's thirst for oil is being driven by booming growth in China and India, as well as a recovery in the US. By the end of July, Chinese oil imports were up 40% from the same period a year earlier. The country is the world's second-largest consumer of oil; the US is the biggest.

Producers are already pumping flat out, and analysts are concerned that any serious disruption to supply could push prices even higher. Saudi Arabia said on Wednesday that it was ready to boost output by as many as 1.3 million extra barrels a day, but this had little effect on oil costs.

Even with that increase, there is very little room for manoeuvre, and many investors are betting that oil prices are set to go even higher. The referendum in Venezuela, the world's fifth-largest producer of crude, has heightened those concerns. Voters are set to decide whether President Chavez should stay in office and many observers are warning that there may be violence if Mr Chavez is defeated.

In Iraq, the threat of sabotage is still hanging over the country's oil pipelines despite the taps being turned on again.

What we have now is the perfect storm
Roger Tissot, PFC Energy

A number of other factors also are preying on investors' minds, including the spat between the Russian government and oil giant Yukos, and the tropical storm that has forced the US to trim output in the Gulf of Mexico.

Analysts said given the manifold uncertainties in the market, further price rises were likely. "What we have now is the perfect storm," said Roger Tissot, a director with PFC Energy. "Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, Yukos, Iraq pipeline attacks and strong world demand keeping spare barrels rare."

"The sentiment in the market is that there are more bad things going to happen to the market than good things," said Sam Dale, bureau chief at Energy Intelligence.

Story from BBC NEWS
The oil supply situation is not going to get any better. The "quagmire" certainly hasn't helped. Is anybody really paying attention? This could get critical really quickly.



skunk
Aug 13, 2004, 06:53 PM
http://www.ems.org/rls/2004/01/28/oil_supply_short.html
Oil Supply Shortages Likely After 2007, New Report Shows

Global oil supplies could start to have difficulty meeting growing demand after 2007, according to a recent analysis (PDF) of existing and planned major oil-recovery projects published this month in Petroleum Review.

While a flood of new production is set to hit the market over the next three years, the volumes expected from anticipated new projects thereafter are likely to fall well below requirements, the report says.

"There are not enough large-scale projects in the development pipeline right now to offset declining production in mature areas and meet global demand growth beyond 2007," said Chris Skrebowski, author of the report, editor of Petroleum Review and a recently appointed Board member of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC) in London.

"Since it takes, on average, six years from first discovery for a mega project to start producing oil, any new project approved today would be unlikely to come on stream until the end of the decade," Mr Skrebowski noted.

The report, 'Oil field mega projects 2004', analysed all known projects with estimated reserves of over 500 million barrels and the claimed potential to produce over 100,000 barrels of oil a day. Projects on that scale account for about 80 percent of the world's oil supplies.

The report found that just three such projects are expected to come on stream in 2007 and three more in 2008. No new projects could be identified for start-up in subsequent years.
and, later:
The International Energy Agency forecasts annual average growth in oil demand over the medium term of around one and a half percent. That alone would require increases in production on the order of one to one and a half million barrels a day each year. In 2002, total worldwide oil production was about 74 million barrels a day, but over 21 million barrels a day came from countries where production is already in decline.

"The results of this analysis suggest that with a shrinking pool of major new oil–recovery projects available, the world may be entering an era of permanently declining oil supplies in the coming decade," Mr Skrebowski said.

"A number of other analysts have forecast a global peak in oil production within roughly the same timeframe based on analyses of past production and estimates of reserves. This study takes a different approach but points to a similar conclusion."
Anyone making any plans?

LethalWolfe
Aug 13, 2004, 07:59 PM
BI-cycle, BI-cycle
I want to ride my bicycle
I want to ride my bike
I want to ride my bicycle
I want to ride it where I like

:D


Lethal

takao
Aug 13, 2004, 08:14 PM
hmmm untill oil price hits 70-90 $ or more, not much will happen..... at the moment the gasoline prices are still the same even after the increase from 30 to nearly 50$

in the oil crisis of the 70ties the price for a barrel was around 80$, if you put inflation into calculation
so it's still far away of that mark

IJ Reilly
Aug 13, 2004, 10:04 PM
So for us, high oil prices are not the end of the world.

Happy to be of assistance.

Leo Hubbard
Aug 14, 2004, 02:11 AM
I was thinking of buying a hybrid. Problem, besides the manufacturer who knows how to fix one? Also I heard the batteries cost as much as an engine and has to be replaced once a year. Not a realistic option for me :(

job
Aug 14, 2004, 06:21 AM
Honestly, a situation like this has just been a matter of time.

Eventually we Americans were going to have to wake up and realize that $1.29 (before the increase in prices) per gallon was too cheap. But no...we basked in our wonderfully gigantic and fuel-eating cars. Oh well. I get 25 mpg anyways. So what do I care, right? :p

amnesiac1984
Aug 14, 2004, 07:47 AM
Honestly, a situation like this has just been a matter of time.

Eventually we Americans were going to have to wake up and realize that $1.29 (before the increase in prices) per gallon was too cheap. But no...we basked in our wonderfully gigantic and fuel-eating cars. Oh well. I get 25 mpg anyways. So what do I care, right? :p

you need a car that does at least 55mpg like mine, then you can stop worrying so much.

kerb
Aug 14, 2004, 08:08 AM
25 mpg!!!

i get about 50 or so.


american cars should just be banned starting with the Hummer whose fuel efficiency is measured in gallons to the mile.

zimv20
Aug 14, 2004, 10:30 AM
40/55 mpg

pseudobrit
Aug 14, 2004, 11:28 AM
40/55 mpg

I come up around 50, with overtinflated tires. (You English are all cheaters, with your 120% "gallon." ;) )

Or ∞ , if I'm on my bike.

Ironically, riding the bike more than 10 miles costs more than driving my TDI when I factor in Clif Shots and Powerbars as fuel.

I'm planning on upgrading to a Marinoni frame (for the punishing hillclimbing in my area) this winter, and rigging the old Trek for touring/commuting.

skunk
Aug 14, 2004, 11:40 AM
You English are all cheaters, with your 120% "gallon."
It's only fair: our "gallons" are 20% bigger and 200% more expensive, and I only get 20-25mpg. Count your blessings.

amnesiac1984
Aug 14, 2004, 12:06 PM
I come up around 50, with overtinflated tires. (You English are all cheaters, with your 120% "gallon." ;) )

Or ? , if I'm on my bike.

Ironically, riding the bike more than 10 miles costs more than driving my TDI when I factor in Clif Shots and Powerbars as fuel.

I'm planning on upgrading to a Marinoni frame (for the punishing hillclimbing in my area) this winter, and rigging the old Trek for touring/commuting.

What kind of TDI you got? is it a golf? I've got a peugeot 306 TDI it really goes and drinks so little diesel.

zimv20
Aug 14, 2004, 12:17 PM
What kind of TDI you got? is it a golf? I've got a peugeot 306 TDI it really goes and drinks so little diesel.
'98 VW TDi New Beetle here. i've got a lead foot but can still go 6-8 weeks between fillups.

w/ the right driving conditions, i can get 63 mpg on the highway. w/ the A/C and stereo going, too. :-)

job
Aug 14, 2004, 06:31 PM
Hah, I wish I had a TDI!

Or a Mercedes CDI for that matter.

I'm driving a 1985 Mercedes 190E 2.3 (an inline 4.) It's older than I am and I don't drive it hard at all. Still compared to what some of my friends get (11mpg! :eek: ) it's a lot.

Diesel rocks though.

IJ Reilly
Aug 14, 2004, 06:32 PM
Just wanted to point out that in an economy as large as ours, there is seldom a scenario that hurts everybody. ;)

Quite right. High crime rates are great news for burglars and bank robbers.

Neserk
Aug 14, 2004, 10:40 PM
IN a word? YES!

Neserk
Aug 14, 2004, 11:12 PM
BI-cycle, BI-cycle
I want to ride my bicycle
I want to ride my bike
I want to ride my bicycle
I want to ride it where I like

:D


Lethal


That just gave me a great Idea! I have observations I have to do for my classes in the fall. It is kind of around the corner. I may just ride my bike over! I may also walk...

I'm going to try and do my 10 weeks of student teaching in the spring there, too, if I like it. WOW then gases prices can do whatever they please!

pseudobrit
Aug 15, 2004, 11:21 AM
What kind of TDI you got? is it a golf? I've got a peugeot 306 TDI it really goes and drinks so little diesel.

Unfortunately, there are no Italian or French car models to pick from (unless you're looking for a Maserati, Ferrari or Lambo), as Renault (in 'Merica= REN-alt), Peugeot (PEW-jut) and Fiat stopped importing long ago.

VW was the only non-truck DERV game in town for awhile, but now that high fuel prices are here to stay there's speculation about more diesel models coming this way. Merc is putting the Ds back in the lineup. The Jeep Liberty is a sure thing, and Ford could bring over the Focus diesel engine for the US market.

Hybrids just suck, especially for climates with four seasons.

themadchemist
Aug 15, 2004, 04:28 PM
Just wanted to point out that in an economy as large as ours, there is seldom a scenario that hurts everybody. ;)

but who cares about Louisiana? ;) :p