U.S.A. Presidential Election Predictions 2004

[LeeTom]

OK United Statesmen & women, we are now just 10 weeks away from what is arguably one of the most important presidential elections for our country. It's time to make your predictions about who will win this election, and by how much!

Put the name of who you think the winner will be, and then how many points (%) you think they will be ahead of the loser in the POPULAR vote.

(Forget the electoral vote, for easiness sake. If you feel we may have another 2000, feel free to put the winner, and put -1%, just to be clear.)

PLEASE KEEP COMMENTS TO A MINIMUM in this thread, edit your own post if you want to change it, and then maybe we can lock it on October 1 and see who wins!

I'll start it off!

[LeeTom]

Kerry +9%

[macsrus]

[skunk]

The whole point is to call it...

[themadchemist]

I'll tell you in nine and a half weeks.

[blackfox]

We still have elections?!




Well in that case...Bush wins electoral votes, loses popular vote. Again.

Then I move to Canada.

I do hope I am wrong...it will be close, but something will happen shortly before the Election that gives Bush the edge...

[Macmaniac]

Its gonna be close no matter what happens.

[Leo Hubbard]

We still have elections?!




Well in that case...Bush wins electoral votes, loses popular vote. Again.

Then I move to Canada.

I do hope I am wrong...it will be close, but something will happen shortly before the Election that gives Bush the edge...
Ditto, except for the Canada part.

[Neserk]

Kerry +1

[blackfox]

Ditto, except for the Canada part.
aww...Canada was my favorite part of my post...

fwiw, I am planning on moving to Canada anyway...so it is more "yay, canada" than "boo, USA"...just so ya know...

[themadchemist]

Ditto, except for the Canada part.

You even agree with the part where he says he hopes he's wrong (that is, he hopes kerry wins)? Wow, you really are changing Leo. :D ;)

[zimv20]

either

a) iran has a nuclear "incident" shortly before the election, bush by 12%, or
b) elections postponed

[sorryiwasdreami]

I think Kerry will win, and by a 10% landslide. Bush will attempt to delay the elections due to "terrorism threats" or somehow have to again recount votes in Florida, where his brother Jeb is coincidentially the Governer.

Then, my biggest fear/horrible gut feeling: Kerry will be assassinated during office just like JFK; he'll be the second JFK to be assassinated. The pattern since 1840 is every 20 years on the year ending in 0 (such as 20, 40, 60, 80, 00) the president either dies or was assassinated.

The only exception right now is Bush, 2000. You could count Reagan in 1980 if you want, but he narrowly survived being shot. Unless Bush gets nailed soon, (not very likely) I fear it's gonna be Kerry.

[blackfox]

either

a) iran has a nuclear "incident" shortly before the election, bush by 12%, or
b) elections postponed

Goddamn zim...don't worry, once I get settled in Vancouver...I'll send for you...nothing like watching an empire implode in a comfortable chair w/ a nice chardonnay...

[Leo Hubbard]

You even agree with the part where he says he hopes he's wrong (that is, he hopes kerry wins)? Wow, you really are changing Leo. :D ;)
Yeah I hope he wins by a landslide and then maybe the DNC will clean up their act and get rid of the lieing, scheming, unethical, deadwood cluttering up their party. :p

[Neserk]

Goddamn zim...don't worry, once I get settled in Vancouver...I'll send for you...nothing like watching an empire implode in a comfortable chair w/ a nice chardonnay...

hmmm... I thought we were all moving in with Skunk!

[blackfox]

hmmm... I thought we were all moving in with Skunk!well, Vancouver's much closer, more aesthetically pleasing (prettier buildings, better teeth) and I believe Skunk's constant correction of my grammar/spelling would drive me slowly insane (I mean, more so...)

[Neserk]

well, Vancouver's much closer, more aesthetically pleasing (prettier buildings, better teeth) and I believe Skunk's constant correction of my grammar/spelling would drive me slowly insane (I mean, more so...)


darn... I was looking forward to spending some time in Europe... but you have some good points ;)

[themadchemist]

Yeah I hope he wins by a landslide and then maybe the DNC will clean up their act and get rid of the lieing, scheming, unethical, deadwood cluttering up their party. :p

Well, if he wins by a landslide I don't think the DNC would have much impetus for change. But as far as lying, scheming, and unethical deadwood, I think that both sides have something to work on, but that the Republicans' platform itself relies on some questionable ethics.

Both parties could use reform. I think the Reps could use demolition first.

[IJ Reilly]

Goddamn zim...don't worry, once I get settled in Vancouver...I'll send for you...nothing like watching an empire implode in a comfortable chair w/ a nice chardonnay...

That wouldn't happen to be a French chardonnay, would it?

[Neserk]

Both parties could use reform. I think the Reps could use demolition first.


Republicans wouldn't be *so* bad if they could get rid of the religious nuts. Democrats big problem is sex. hmmmm....

[themadchemist]

Republicans wouldn't be *so* bad if they could get rid of the religious nuts. Democrats big problem is sex. hmmmm....

Yeah, I don't think sex is a problem just of democrats. We've had the sexual miscreants on both sides. And honestly, I don't care! It has nothing to do with national governance!

[Neserk]

Yeah, I don't think sex is a problem just of democrats. We've had the sexual miscreants on both sides. And honestly, I don't care! It has nothing to do with national governance!


Democrats seem to get more press for it, at least. I do think it is an issue. There is something to be said for controlling one's sexual urges. We aren't animals you know ;)

Actually my issue with Clinton was about power. He had no business having a sexual encounter with someone that young whom he had power over. What ever happened to having sex because one is horny? I know that is why it happens around here :D

[themadchemist]

Democrats seem to get more press for it, at least. I do think it is an issue. There is something to be said for controlling one's sexual urges. We aren't animals you know ;)

Actually my issue with Clinton was about power. He had no business having a sexual encounter with someone that young whom he had power over. What ever happened to having sex because one is horny? I know that is why it happens around here :D

lol, I suppose you make a point. Maybe what I meant was that considering the long list of political offenses and the limited time there is to prosecute them, in addition to the real and opportunity costs of such prosecution, is it really worth it to spend millions going after a guy for having an affair? Consider what extraordinary waste and what absolute wielding of the excesses of big government the impeachment was. So much could have been done for the public good during the public's time, but we had a witch hunt instead.

I just feel that Clinton's offenses, and other sexual promiscuity by politicians Democrat and Republican, pale with respect to harm to the public in comparison to the egregious offenses of our sitting president.

[relimw]

I think Kerry will win, and by a 10% landslide. Bush will attempt to delay the elections due to "terrorism threats" or somehow have to again recount votes in Florida, where his brother Jeb is coincidentially the Governer.


Course, we find out now that 42,000 New Yorkers were double registered to vote in a federal election (that is, they were registered in both NY and FL).

Hmm, if they did that in 2000, Bush really did win the popular vote.

Bush by 3%.

[themadchemist]

Course, we find out now that 42,000 New Yorkers were double registered to vote in a federal election (that is, they were registered in both NY and FL).

Hmm, if they did that in 2000, Bush really did win the popular vote.

Bush by 3%.

The question is, did they vote in both states?

[zimv20]

Course, we find out now that 42,000 New Yorkers were double registered to vote in a federal election (that is, they were registered in both NY and FL).
link, please

[skunk]

The question is, did they vote in both states?
More to the point, how do you know they weren't 42,000 Floridians double-registered to vote in both FL and NY? :p

[MattG]

Kerry will win, and it's going to be by more than just a couple percentage points. I say at least +10%. I don't take any faith in the polls online and on TV. They're not accurate--they're only taking into account "likely" voters, and there are a lot of people in this country who maybe didn't vote last time and are so disgusted with Bush's performance that they will vote this time (i.e. myself), and they will vote for Kerry.

[jefhatfield]

if kerry wins just one southern state, then it's all over

i go with kerry by 5 percent

he will possibly carry florida, north carolina, south carolina, and virginia

[relimw]

link, please

Here ya go:
http://www.nydailynews.com/front/story/224449p-192807c.html

Some 46,000 New Yorkers are registered to vote in both the city and Florida, a shocking finding that exposes both states to potential abuses that could alter the outcome of elections, a Daily News investigation shows.

The News' investigation also found:

# Of the 46,000 registered in both states, 68% are Democrats, 12% are Republicans and 16% didn't claim a party.

# Nearly 1,700 of those registered in both states requested that absentee ballots be mailed to their home in the other state, where they are also registered. But that doesn't raise red flags with officials in either place.

[Leo Hubbard]

Here ya go:
http://www.nydailynews.com/front/story/224449p-192807c.html

Some 46,000 New Yorkers are registered to vote in both the city and Florida, a shocking finding that exposes both states to potential abuses that could alter the outcome of elections, a Daily News investigation shows.

The News' investigation also found:

# Of the 46,000 registered in both states, 68% are Democrats, 12% are Republicans and 16% didn't claim a party.

# Nearly 1,700 of those registered in both states requested that absentee ballots be mailed to their home in the other state, where they are also registered. But that doesn't raise red flags with officials in either place.
So Gore almost stole the election with the help of New Yorker voters?

[relimw]

So Gore almost stole the election with the help of New Yorker voters?

Hmm, if I was a Democrat, I'd say 'no'; if I was a Republician I'd say 'yes' :D

[jefhatfield]

So Gore almost stole the election with the help of New Yorker voters?

with the electoral college, it is possible for any candidate to steal the election

i think a popular vote would be in order after the 2000 election controversy...while bush won the election in 2000 legally, many did not feel he earned the white house...i think he will lose a lot of votes this time around by those angry voters who might have otherwise not cared

there are so many americans in the middle who are lukewarm about both parties and the smallest thing can shift them to the left or right...reagan and clinton were good at capturing the wishy-washy middle and when things got heated in congress, both presidents knew how to compromise

w may have been good at compromising while he was governor in texas, but he is not good as a president...he is not acting like a president should and he thinks he is some sort of third world king...in the past, only nixon was that arrogant

[mischief]

That wouldn't happen to be a French chardonnay, would it?

No, It'd be an Okanagan grown variety from California-originating vines.

BTW: When did you all decide to move up North without me? I've been stuck down here since '86!

If we're all moving (back) to Vancouver we should open a Mac shop. At the very least I should be setting up sponsors for those Americans seeking Dual Citizenship. If you decide to become Canadian WHITHOUT doing the Dual Citizenship process the USA REVOKES your citizenship BTW, Natural-born or not.

Oh yeah.... the topic:

America gets it's head out of it's rectum: Kerry by 5%

Terrorism rhetoric and dirty campaigning wins out (likely): Bush by 15%

Terrorist attack in the next 60 to 90 days: Elections indefinitely postponed. Bush by Fiat.

I do believe I should be organizing and aiding those who want to move North in two out of those three outcomes... Not to mention lining up a job up there myself...

[mypantsaretight]

There is one party. The business party. The elections are merely the struggles of two factions within that singularity. I predict the business party wins with 95%+ of the vote.

As to which faction will prevail? My money is on Bush.

m

[skunk]

Oh, so true! :(

[stubeeef]

Course, we find out now that 42,000 New Yorkers were double registered to vote in a federal election (that is, they were registered in both NY and FL).

Hmm, if they did that in 2000, Bush really did win the popular vote.

Bush by 3%.

Bush by 3.17% of the popular vote.