Bad news for Kerry

[kuyu]

My best friend and old roommate has been watching the RNC convention. He watched three nights of the DNC one, and one night of the RNC one.

A little background: My buddy is Dubya critic numero uno. He registered as a Democrat just after the 2000 election. We always talk about the issues and stay friendly as we have been friends since before we could vote.

The kicker: After the McCain/Guilianni speeches on Monday he called me, and the conversation was a little different than our normal talks.

He tells me that he can't make up his mind. However, after 4 years of anyone but Bush, he's beginning to question himself. He goes on to say that he doesn't agree with everything Bush does/says, he's starting to think that maybe Bush is the man we need right now.

His reason: We start to talk about the reason's for war and brings up a good point. We conclude that most terrorist were poor/disaffected/angry youths. Angry that there is really no future in their countries. Then we talk about oil and the wells eventually running dry. He then brings up this point. "What's going to happen to the Middle East when the wells run dry? If those people don't have something to sell or trade that's not black and explosive, you'll have a whole region of poor/disaffected/angry youths. That's not good."

Also, he points out that we're poor. We both make under 10K/year. Then he says "I'm technically poor, but I've got a house to come home to, a car, 100 channels, a job, a bank account, and what's so bad about that? Being poor here beats being rich over there".

Followup: The next day he calls me to ask how he can change his party affiliation. He's switching to the independants (like me). He says that the democrat's platform is good, but not the most important right now. He said he'd rather see democrats take over once we know that America is safe in the longrun (ie, the Middle East is on par with other nations regarding diversified production and trade).

I guaruntee he's not the only person out there doing the same thing. I couldn't have been more shocked if Zim and IJ told me they were voting for Bush. Thoughts??? :confused:

[Lyle]

He tells me that he can't make up his mind. However, after 4 years of anyone but Bush, he's beginning to question himself. He goes on to say that he doesn't agree with everything Bush does/says, he's starting to think that maybe Bush is the man we need right now... Thoughts??? This sounds a little fishy to me, which is to say, I don't think that hearing those speeches alone would have tipped the scales for someone who's been anti-Bush for the last four years. True, McCain and Giuliani both gave knockout speeches, but given the polarized state of politics at this point I don't see that they would have swayed someone who wasn't on the fence already.

But hey, if he's going to vote Bush, who am I to dissuade him? ;)

[kuyu]

Ahh, but don't forget he's got me filling his ear with evil conservative propaganda about democrats killing puppies and how democrats want to steal his paycheck to buy zoloft!!! ;) </sarcasm>

He's a pretty straight shooter, and weighs both sides of the issues. He was anti-Bush at the same time as me, four years ago. I've come to the other side since then and I think he's just now doing that himself.

[alexf]

Ahh, but don't forget he's got me filling his ear with evil conservative propaganda about democrats killing puppies and how democrats want to steal his paycheck to buy zoloft!!! ;) </sarcasm>

He's a pretty straight shooter, and weighs both sides of the issues. He was anti-Bush at the same time as me, four years ago. I've come to the other side since then and I think he's just now doing that himself.

I think it might be time for him to see "Farenheit 911."

If anyone can see this movie and still vote for Bush, there is definately something not right in the head... (and I do mean that respectfully)

[kettle]

I think it might be time for him to see "Farenheit 911."

If anyone can see this movie and still vote for Bush, there is definately something not right in the head... (and I do mean that respectfully)

Yeah, I was the same the first time I watched Mutant Ninja Turtles, all I wanted to do when I came out of the theatre was karate chop everything and eat pizza. :rolleyes:

[Sun Baked]

Yeah, I was the same the first time I watched Mutant Ninja Turtles, all I wanted to do when I came out of the theatre was karate chop everything and eat pizza. :rolleyes:Yes, but the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles we more enjoyable characters to watch on the big screen.

And pizza definitely tastes better than crude oil.

[mactastic]

Well that's a somewhat misleading thread title. I can't see how one person changing positions equates to 'Bad News for Kerry'. Particularly since I posted a thread a while ago showing several people who were switching from Bush to Kerry. I didn't make the leap from that to 'Bad News for Bush' though, that's kind of a stretch.

Anyway, as long as people are thinking and not making decisions based on untruths such as Dems wanting to steal your paycheck, that's all I care about. Be informed and vote.

BTW... Economically, the country has historically done better under a Democratic president so vote your pocketbook! ;)

[zimv20]

I guaruntee he's not the only person out there doing the same thing. I couldn't have been more shocked if Zim and IJ told me they were voting for Bush. Thoughts??? :confused:
wanna try it?

i'm thinking it'll be best for the US in the long run if bush wins.

[Lyle]

i'm thinking it'll be best for the US in the long run if bush wins.Don't tease, zim. You know that if you change your tune, we're going to call you a flip-flopper. ;)

[takao]

wanna try it?

i'm thinking it'll be best for the US in the long run if bush wins.

the really sad part is that it really might be better for the US on the long run...

(and yeah not only you would be called a flip-flopper but you would be called a _french_ flip flopper ;) )

[diamond geezer]

His reason: We start to talk about the reason's for war and brings up a good point. We conclude that most terrorist were poor/disaffected/angry youths. Angry that there is really no future in their countries. Then we talk about oil and the wells eventually running dry. He then brings up this point. "What's going to happen to the Middle East when the wells run dry? If those people don't have something to sell or trade that's not black and explosive, you'll have a whole region of poor/disaffected/angry youths. That's not good."


Why and how does he think that poor disaffected youths are going to transport themselves thousands of miles away to attack the US? There are plenty of poor people all over the world already, why are they not coming after you guys already?

The US is hated in the Middle East becouse of it's foreign policy, once the Oil has run out the US may cease to care what happens (Israel excepted) and stop bombing, invading, assisting the ovedrthrowing of Governements etc. Many of the reasons for this hatred may cease to exist (although people have long memories).

How is it that the residents of the most powerful country in the world are scared of people that have almost no means of attacking them?

[diamond geezer]

Yes, but the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles we more enjoyable characters to watch on the big screen.

And pizza definitely tastes better than crude oil.

I used to read "Adolescent Radioactive Blackbelt Hampsters" comics.

[zimv20]

Don't tease, zim. You know that if you change your tune, we're going to call you a flip-flopper. ;)
i'm not teasing, and if i decide i do want bush to win, it's not because i think he's doing or will do a good job.

quite the opposite.

i'm becoming more convinced that the next several years are going to be a big wakeup call to this nation. markets crashing, iraq out of control, economic hard times, rising oil prices, et. al.

for example, let's have a look at what paul krugman is saying about iraq in this piece (http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/31/opinion/31krugman.html?hp):

Ever since the uprising in April, the Iraqi town of Falluja has in effect been a small, nasty Islamic republic. But what about the rest of the Sunni triangle?

Last month a Knight-Ridder report suggested that U.S. forces were effectively ceding many urban areas to insurgents. Last Sunday The Times confirmed that while the world's attention was focused on Najaf, western Iraq fell firmly under rebel control. Representatives of the U.S.-installed government have been intimidated, assassinated or executed.

Other towns, like Samarra, have also fallen to insurgents. Attacks on oil pipelines are proliferating. And we're still playing whack-a-mole with Moktada al-Sadr: his Mahdi Army has left Najaf, but remains in control of Sadr City, with its two million people. The Christian Science Monitor reports that "interviews in Baghdad suggest that Sadr is walking away from the standoff with a widening base and supporters who are more militant than before."


Now, serious security analysts have begun to admit that the goal of a democratic, pro-American Iraq has receded out of reach. Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies - no peacenik - writes that "there is little prospect for peace and stability in Iraq before late 2005, if then."

Mr. Cordesman still thinks (or thought a few weeks ago) that the odds of success in Iraq are "at least even," but by success he means the creation of a government that "is almost certain to be more inclusive of Ba'ath, hard-line religious, and divisive ethnic/sectarian movements than the West would like." And just in case, he urges the U.S. to prepare "a contingency plan for failure."

Fred Kaplan of Slate is even more pessimistic. "This is a terribly grim thing to say," he wrote recently, "but there might be no solution to the problem of Iraq" - no way to produce "a stable, secure, let alone democratic regime. And there's no way we can just pull out without plunging the country, the region, and possibly beyond into still deeper disaster." Deeper disaster? Yes: people who worried about Ramadi are now worrying about Pakistan.


again, i think iraq is heading towards chaos. and i'm thinking, if kerry's elected, and iraq does fall apart, how will the media treat kerry? how hard will the GOP go after kerry for spoiling "bush's good work?"

if the next few years turns out like i think -- and in my scenario, it doesn't matter who's in the WH -- the dems will take a serious hit and the GOP machine will roll on.

rather, i say let's let bush sleep in the bed he's made. IF we can survive it (and that's a big if), in four years the GOP party will be unpopular and fighting amongst themselves. imo, the public won't go for much more of the neocon style of governance ("compassionate conservatism" my ass), and the party will have to move to a much more moderate stance or face extinction.

that's why i'm thinking it would be best, longterm, for bush to win.

[neoelectronaut]

Wow, did anyone just see Zell Miller's speech? He ripped Kerry the proverbial "new one".

[Thomas Veil]

Yeah, and then I watched Miller go nutso on MSNBC. (See the Zell Miller thread.)

[pseudobrit]

My father registered to vote last month so he can go to the polls for the first time since I've been alive. I'm not even sure if he's ever voted in his life; he's always been very disillusioned with politics, saying that any vote is a vote for a guy who doesn't give a damn and won't change anything or help anyone, etc. Both my father and I live in a heavily Republican county.

He's voting for John Kerry. Why? My brother's in Iraq and he's disgusted with the exceptionally brazen pomposity with which this administration conducts business.

I think he's sick that they don't even really bother to cover stuff up anymore; they just spin it.

[mischief]

This is a truly icky and complicated issue.

On the one hand Zim is absolutely correct. Any way you slice it the Bush administration's choice to use Iraq as a "honeypot" was a bad one and whoever's next in the Oval Office will face a much bigger, meaner and more diverse group of International Fundamentalist Terrorists. Plus I really don't think it's sunk in just how close to the Taliban some of the ultra-right wingers pulling the strings of late in Washington really are. In some ways a political Scorched Earth effect may be the wakeup call this country needs. I just reaaly do not look foreward to living through it.\


On the other hand, if we don't switch to diplomacy, or at least use SOME finesse the dammage to our credibility as a Nation and the added propoganda for those who use Islam as a weapon may make the situation close to unrecoverable without truly drastic intervention. If we don't get a clue soon there may be no option left but to do precisely what these extremists have accused us of all along: Truely Imperialist World Domination backed by full Millitary Occupation of most of the third world involving a massive Draft backed by WW2 style Nationalization of industry.

So really it's a choice between a slim chance at Peace in the short run or an excellent chance of massive War in the short term followed by a God Emperor of Dune style "Peace" in the middle term.

It must also be kept in mind that the culture we're dealing with over there is one that moved from Totalitarian tribalism with no resources to essentially the same culture with tremendous resources without the intervening cultural evolution the West took about 4000 years to refine.

That is a culture with a long oral tradition in which Christain Europeans have been a popular villain (with good reason BTW) since about 1200 AD. The Judaic culture is even less popular: They've been the hated outsider since the dawn of recorded history (6000 years). When you add the fact that the average level of education and cultural sophistication is about where it was in Europe from 1100 AD to about 1500 AD it becomes a little easier to understand just how simple it can be to make Zealots out of Dirt Farmers.

The Islamic world's rennaisance ended with the Crusades . The rise of Western civilization from the Dark Ages was, in large degree a direct result of the strip-mining of Islamic culture and the ruins of the Ancient civilizations in North Africa. In the minds of many in those places our power is a direct result of our ancestor's rape of their culture's peak period.

[zimv20]

A sound argument, but how about the bottom line... could you vote for Bush? From your perspective you have some good arguments on why you would like to see Bush win, but could you personally vote for him and make it a reality?
i could not in good conscious vote for bush, simply because i do not think he is the best man for the job.

in addition, IL is now firmly democratic and will go to kerry. so my vote, really, makes no difference.

[katchow]

in addition, IL is now firmly democratic and will go to kerry. so my vote, really, makes no difference.

i'm still waiting to see if my vote will mean anything this time (in ohio)...i will vote anyway, but there is something that really bugs me about the system.

[mypantsaretight]

Yeah, and then I watched Miller go nutso on MSNBC. (See the Zell Miller thread.)

It was like someone switched the channel away from Matlock at the senior citizen's home.

If voting.... bah see my sig.

[takao]

(snip)
The Islamic world's rennaisance ended with the Crusades . The rise of Western civilization from the Dark Ages was, in large degree a direct result of the strip-mining of Islamic culture and the ruins of the Ancient civilizations in North Africa. In the minds of many in those places our power is a direct result of our ancestor's rape of their culture's peak period.

hmm actually the fights between islam and christianity took a lot longer.... (9 wars between austria and osmanic empire alone)
so it's not only the crusades.. ;)

just look up the myth/legend/history of the austrian arm of coats/flag:
it goes back to the 3. crusade to the battle for Akkon (english spelling ?) where the white crusader coat of the Babenberger Leopold V. (the arch-duke of austria at that time...also know as "leopold the brave") was cover with blood of the sarcenes (sp?)... that when he took of the broad belt a white broad line was between the red parts of the coat soaked up with blood...

and and don't forget the imperialism of the 19th...that pissed of a lot of people down there as well

[Ugg]

His reason: We start to talk about the reason's for war and brings up a good point. We conclude that most terrorist were poor/disaffected/angry youths. Angry that there is really no future in their countries.

Well, from what I've read, the majority of the 9 11 guys were well-educated upper middle class types, they are heavily drawn to al Qaida, not least because bin Laden is from the same mold. They are disaffected though and a better comparison would be to the 60's kids of Germany, France and the US who rebelled against their parents. That is really what this is about, anger at their parents generation and their inability to lash out at them and or protest in their own countries due to totalitarian regimes. Of course I'm talking about the Sauds but this doesn't necessarily apply in Afghanistan or the other poorer countries of the middle east.

[jayb2000]

If you believe everything that Moore says....

Debunking Farenheit 9/11 (http://www.larryelder.com/911/debunking911.html)

Its not what Moore says, its who he gets his info from.

http://www.michaelmoore.com/warroom/f911notes/index.php?id=16

Yes, its from Micheal Moore's page, but it is just links to all the souces of the movie, newspapers, 9-11 report, etc, that he used in building his movie.

Unlike the page you referenced, it actually has links to sources, instead of one person's opinion.

[pseudobrit]

that's why i'm thinking it would be best, longterm, for bush to win.

While I agree with your assessment of the situation Kerry would likely face, I disagree with the idea that Bush and the neocon Republican movement will face damning unpopularity in the coming years if reelected (or reselected, as it were).

We've come this far, and they've ****ed up so much and lied so bad and shown no remorse and they've still got half the country on their hook.

Americans are stupid, mis- and uninformed and filled with abject fear. Because of this, a large number of them will vote for the macho toughguy.

You know what? They'll deserve four more years of the asshole. I'm going to Canada.

[Leo Hubbard]

I'm going to Canada.
tata, another reason to vote for Bush. :D

[kuyu]

Americans are stupid, mis- and uninformed and filled with abject fear.


It must be all those books I read that made me stupid, right??? Maybe all the news I read makes me mis- and uninformed, right???

Brit, I'm shocked. I get along great with Zim and IJ because I understand that while we have different views on some issues, they are not stupid. I would contend that they don't think me a moron myself. However, blindly refering to Americans as stupid is a bit over the top.

You assert, like some kind of knight of infinite faith, that you are subject to a sort of knowledge that our simple craniums just cannot grasp. Perhaps we would be better served by moving to another nation so that we might share in this cosmic revalation of intelligence and information that, obviously, someone has bestowed on you.

I wonder, is your enlightenment the predication of an innate knowledge present at your conception, or is your unique intellegence something gathered thereafter in the ether of existence?

That aside, perhaps a hypothesis of efficiency would dictate that, while some retain perfect knowledge, the rest of us dunces might utilize the intellectual wake of those chosen to carry the aforementioned intellectual gifts to glide into a future guided by such heightened mental capacities.

We're not all stupid, Brit. Even us conservatives (in Kentucky no less) read books, discuss issues, and participate in the quest for greater knowledge. I don't intend for this post to anger you. Rather, my purpose is that you might revise your statement to include some Americans, not all Americans.

[pseudobrit]

You assert, like some kind of knight of infinite faith, that you are subject to a sort of knowledge that our simple craniums just cannot grasp. Perhaps we would be better served by moving to another nation so that we might share in this cosmic revalation of intelligence and information that, obviously, someone has bestowed on you.

I wonder, is your enlightenment the predication of an innate knowledge present at your conception, or is your unique intellegence something gathered thereafter in the ether of existence?

That aside, perhaps a hypothesis of efficiency would dictate that, while some retain perfect knowledge, the rest of us dunces might utilize the intellectual wake of those chosen to carry the aforementioned intellectual gifts to glide into a future guided by such heightened mental capacities.

We're not all stupid, Brit. Even us conservatives (in Kentucky no less) read books, discuss issues, and participate in the quest for greater knowledge. I don't intend for this post to anger you. Rather, my purpose is that you might revise your statement to include some Americans, not all Americans.

I never said "all Americans."

'nough said, but:

Go sling your piles of indignant, snide horse**** somewhere else; I left my catcher's mitt in the car.

[takao]

... to include some Americans, not all Americans.

agree with your post:and pseudobrit should definatly include those people who asked my friends on their US holidays stuff like "have you ever saw the emperor of europe in person ?" "do you have television in europe ?" and other amusing questions....(like the obvious question concerning kangoroos as pets)

i'm pretty sure those people are in the "some americans" group
i just wanted to add that ...;)

[Chip NoVaMac]

I tried to view Bush's speech tonight with an open mind.

To me it seemed like more failed promises.

[IJ Reilly]

Any promises Bush makes now, especially on the domestic front, have to be measured against his accomplishments of the last four years.

[mischief]

Any promises Bush makes now, especially on the domestic front, have to be measured against his accomplishments of the last four years.

As I recall all of the things in his speech except tax cuts were conveniently things he didn't try in his first term... Perhaps he's attempting to diversify to increase his successes? Hmm... Maybe if we can elect enough Dems and indys into the Senate he'll be talking about things that may actually have an impact :rolleyes: in time to be a Lame Duck.