Job Recovery Not Coming

[Rebel]

India is beginning negotiations with the World Trade Organization to ease visa restrictions for Indian professionals. There is some deal-making going on in Geneva . These Geneva talks are a framework for advancing the “Doha Round” of negotiations.

You cannot find much information about these talks in the U.S. press, but by using Google, you can see that in countries throughout the world the Geneva negotiations are very big news. Typically U.S. news does very little reporting on these important trade negotiations.

If the deal goes through, India will lift barriers to farm products and services. In this case, services would include allowing our banks and insurance companies to operate in India .

Developing countries, led by Brazil and India , agreed to lower barriers to manufactured goods and to services.

Of course, the U.S. has to give something in return. In this case, the sacrificial lamb will once again be the American middle-class. India wants unlimited access to our labor markets - and American companies would consider that a very good trade!

If the proposal goes through, the existing quantitative curbs on the movement of Indian engineers, software programmers, scientists, accountants, and other professionals to the US will be removed. This will translate into cheaper labor and more lost American jobs.



Of the People, By the People, For the People - What today's politician keeps forgetting.

United Citizens of America (http://www.ucanation.org/)

[Desertrat]

But India is running into serious problems in its IT business. They've grown way too fast for their infrastructure to keep up. They're years behind, now, on building electric power plants. They're way behind the curve on adequate housing and potable water supplies. A lot of IT professionals are looking elsewhere for work--as a function of quality of workplace and lifestyle.

Hey, you can always raise soybeans; China's "outsourcing" the vast majority of that part of their food supply. You can sell all you can produce, guaranteed. That's better than Intel is doing.

'Rat

[Thomas Veil]

The WTO is nothing more than a front for the world's biggest multinational corporations. They exist mainly to help these companies outsource jobs to other countries.

And you don't hear about it on the news because the media are all owned by -- guess what? -- big corporations.

[IJ Reilly]

Growing "too rapidly" -- now that's a terrible problem to have. Let's talk about this outsourcing trend as though it's a good thing and can't go on forever anyway. That way, we'll feel so much better about our wages stagnating and our standard of living dropping.

[zimv20]

Growing "too rapidly" -- now that's a terrible problem to have.
actually, it is. the main two ways companies go bankrupt is either too little growth or too much growth. the latter happens more often than you'd think. in a nutshell, growth requires capital expenditure and, if not managed properly, can result in overextending credit and/or bankruptcy.

check out the "Managing Growth" chapter of Robert Higgins' Analysis for Financial Management.

[skunk]

actually, it is. the main two ways companies go bankrupt is either too little growth or too much growth. the latter happens more often than you'd think. in a nutshell, growth requires capital expenditure and, if not managed properly, can result in overextending credit and/or bankruptcy.
Been there, done that, lost the t-shirt...

[IJ Reilly]

actually, it is. the main two ways companies go bankrupt is either too little growth or too much growth. the latter happens more often than you'd think. in a nutshell, growth requires capital expenditure and, if not managed properly, can result in overextending credit and/or bankruptcy.

check out the "Managing Growth" chapter of Robert Higgins' Analysis for Financial Management.

Yes, but 'Rat was referring to the entire Indian outsourcing industry. The worst that can happen there is a slowdown in the rate of growth, which currently is phenomenal.

[zimv20]

Yes, but 'Rat was referring to the entire Indian outsourcing industry. The worst that can happen there is a slowdown in the rate of growth, which currently is phenomenal.
gotcha.

yeah, they've hit upon a pretty good thing over there. an entire generation learning english, learning american customs and grabbing up business wherever it can.

makes me think a generation or two in the US could learn from such enterprise.

[Hoef]

Of course, the U.S. has to give something in return. In this case, the sacrificial lamb will once again be the American middle-class. India wants unlimited access to our labor markets - and American companies would consider that a very good trade!


Isn't that the beauty of a free market society? labor goes where it is cheaper. Indian's understand that, so they are outsourcing to China ;)
Alternatively we can lower our wages and get medicines out of Canada

[Leo Hubbard]

gotcha.

yeah, they've hit upon a pretty good thing over there. an entire generation learning english, learning american customs and grabbing up business wherever it can.

makes me think a generation or two in the US could learn from such enterprise.
a 51st state?

[Desertrat]

Anybody remember when the "maquiladora" assembly plants in Mexico first began? 1970s, I think. Parts for various items were made in the US, shipped to assembly plants in Mexico, and then the finished goods were brought into the US, duty-free. Consumers loved the lower prices, and the US workforce avoided the boring assembly-line work; the Mexicans loved the higher pay.

Canadian plants since the 1960s--or earlier--made the door handles and hinges and other stuff for GM.

Wasn't that out-sourcing?

The rest of the world, since WW II, has been playing catch-up in industrial capability. Who'd have thought they couldn't learn IT?

Right now, it looks like the foundation of our economy is based on money-shuffling, management skills, new ideas and service. Here, manufacturing is and has been in decline for a long, long time. This was rough on the blue-collar folks; now, the change in IT is becoming rough on those from that arena.

People immigrated here for betterment. Maybe US folks can consider going elsewhere. I've read of a fair number of people that are bi-lingual and are in demand in management in corporations in Mexico.

It sorta looks like future success will derive from being multi-lingua and having skills in management as well as a knowledge of IT matters. But, that's just a guess.

Sorta funny about "service" industry. As example, Miller Brewing has a large plant at Albany, Georgia. One guy worked a deal to maintain their 1,700 acres of "lawn". He has equipment and crews, and grosses $1 million a year.

I dunno. There are opportunities, but it looks like it'll take imagination to find them...

'Rat

[Thomas Veil]

Right now, it looks like the foundation of our economy is based on money-shuffling, management skills, new ideas and service.
Therein lies the problem. You can't base an entire economy on that.

When they started shipping manufacturing jobs overseas, they said, "Don't worry, we'll still have the service sector. Those jobs are the future." When they started shipping those to India, they said, "Don't worry, we'll still have the hi-tech jobs like IT. Those jobs are the future." Well, now they're able to have engineers in India draft designs and share them with management over the internet. So that's the new outsourcing frontier.

Wonder if they'll ship management to India next? Then the CEOs of these corporations can live here, and everyone else can work in a foreign country.

'Course, there'll be nobody left to buy anything by then....

[IJ Reilly]

I read an article in the LA Times a couple of weeks ago (now I wish I'd posted it here) about the very real differences between the Bush and Kerry globalization and trade policies. Bush is taking an essentially orthodox free trader stance (with notable exceptions for buying votes in critical states) that all market globalization forces are good for the economy. Kerry is promoting a revision to the Clinton policy that insists that environmental and labor standards be adopted and enforced through international free trade agreements.

I think Kerry's approach is the harder row to hoe, but in the end, the only sensible policy to adopt.

[Desertrat]

"...environmental and labor standards be adopted and enforced through international free trade agreements..."

I agree this would be the best policy.

But, look no further than Mexico. On paper, they have EPA-like requirements similar to ours. The government there has said that it is enforcing these regulations to the best of its financial ability. Unfortunately, that's total BS.

So how would we deal with that situation? Anything we've ever tried, during any administration, to make them "stay stuck" to any deal is met with cries of imperialism or racism--and from many in this country, much less the Mexican press' cries of anger and anguish about our meddling with their national sovereignty.

'Rat

[Rebel]

People immigrated here for betterment. Maybe US folks can consider going elsewhere. I've read of a fair number of people that are bi-lingual and are in demand in management in corporations in Mexico.

It sorta looks like future success will derive from being multi-lingua and having skills in management as well as a knowledge of IT matters. But, that's just a guess.

'Rat

A woman asked me for advice about college. She was worried about spending multi-thousands of dollars for her son to become an engineer. She is a retired engineer, and so is her husband, father, and grand father.

I told her to spend a little extra, and get her son into foreign language classes. Engineering jobs are plentiful in other countries.

She wants her son to work close to home. Unfortunately, this will not be a future reality for our children. I used to think that working in another state was too far away from family for my liking. Our children will be working in foreign countries.

However, there are good jobs that will be available here. For instance - Chefs (if they are good), Mechanics, HVAC, Electricians, Plumbers, Locksmiths, Carpentry, etc.

My children want to go to college (on my money), I told them that I would not give them a college education. I will send them to trade schools so that they can become experts within their trade of choice. It will be their only opportunity to have financial success in life, and remain relatively close to home.

[zimv20]

My children want to go to college (on my money), I told them that I would not give them a college education. I will send them to trade schools so that they can become experts within their trade of choice. It will be their only opportunity to have financial success in life, and remain relatively close to home.
i disagree with you. i think a classical education -- including foreign language -- will keep many doors open.

[Desertrat]

While I agree with you, zim, it's a matter of affording college on the one hand, and general suitability on the other. That is, I know a lot of guys for whom the world of engineering is fairly easy, but dealing with the liberal arts side of a college curriculum is misery. Vice versa, for that matter. It shows up in the dropout rate from our universities, where those who might have done well in a technical college wind up as "just a dropout".

When I transferred to the University of Florida, an orientation meeting had one speaker comment, "Look to your left; look to your right. One of those people won't be here next year." That's all well and good if it's found out during the Freshman year, but rather sad when it's midway through the Junior year.

'Rat

[zimv20]

I know a lot of guys for whom the world of engineering is fairly easy, but dealing with the liberal arts side of a college curriculum is misery.
isn't education supposed to be hard? self-challenge and all that stuff...

[IJ Reilly]

I agree this would be the best policy.

But, look no further than Mexico. On paper, they have EPA-like requirements similar to ours. The government there has said that it is enforcing these regulations to the best of its financial ability. Unfortunately, that's total BS.

So how would we deal with that situation? Anything we've ever tried, during any administration, to make them "stay stuck" to any deal is met with cries of imperialism or racism--and from many in this country, much less the Mexican press' cries of anger and anguish about our meddling with their national sovereignty.

As I said, this is the tougher row to hoe. It takes someone with the backbone to threaten erstwhile free trading partners who don't enforce their own labor and environmental standards with the loss of that favored status. I honestly think that taking this view to its natural conclusion will result in major changes to treaties like GATT and NAFTA and the nations willing to sign onto them, and a vastly different approach to new trade treaties that might come along in the future. A lot of developing nations will howl like stuck pigs if they're held to their agreements, but so be it.

I'd been an essentially uncritical supporter of these free trade treaties until recently, assuming that over time some kind of natural level would be achieve on trade. But I'm seeing now that the process of globalization includes the wholesale shipment of jobs of all kinds from the industrialized Western nations (not just the US), to countries where people and the environment are regarded as expendable. Not only isn't this fair to us, in the end it, isn't even fair to them.

[Rebel]

i disagree with you. i think a classical education -- including foreign language -- will keep many doors open.

I hire many kids (not lately) with classic educations (including foreign language). These are my entry-level people. I.e. stock room, mailroom, print room, etc. Most don't have the skills to go beyond their entry level position. Most can't think themselves out of a paper bag.

A basic college education will be a future requirement to flip burgers. Ivy League grads will hold the corporate and political power. Only kids who have specific skills will be in need. The others will just be the help.

The world has changed very quickly my friend. Americans need to open their eyes and adapt. Or else we will be the 3rd world country in the future.

[Desertrat]

Yeah, IJ, the mutual fairness concept is dead on. Thing is, I'm guessing, this view must become institutionalized with the leadership of both our political parties. It does little good if it's tried for four years and abandoned--or just eight years, for that matter.

'Rat

[zimv20]

The world has changed very quickly my friend. Americans need to open their eyes and adapt. Or else we will be the 3rd world country in the future.
i agree with you here. i'm still (perhaps stupidly) optimistic that a curious, bright person can get a well-rounded and non-trade-specific degree and still succeed.

though i'll make these two observations:
1. the truly curious and bright and few and far between
2. we've accepted a university education as little more than a glorified trade school

[Hoef]

A woman asked me for advice about college. She was worried about spending multi-thousands of dollars for her son to become an engineer. She is a retired engineer, and so is her husband, father, and grand father.

I told her to spend a little extra, and get her son into foreign language classes. Engineering jobs are plentiful in other countries.


That is a depressing statement ... Engineers with a business degree are golden! ... Also, think about creativity (that us right :) ) .... We won't see the day when they outsource marketing, arts, etc... yet.

[Desertrat]

I once worked with a Mr. Harvey Banks, who had been head of California's Department of Water Resources back when the California Water Project was designed and the contracts let for construction. He went from that to an engineering consulting firm with worldwide jobs.

He needed a translator in most foreign countries--parts of Asia and the mideast.

That's why I mentioned the learning of foreign languages as well as a technical knowledge base. Some courses in economics and business administration don't hurt, either.

When I was at GM, I was told that there was an upper limit to what engineers were paid. However, if I showed any talent for administration, there was, practically, no real limit to how far I could go...

US service businesses? Well, it will cost you around $14/hour to own and operate a Case 580 backhoe. You can easily gross around $80,000 a year if you're ambitious enough to go out and sell work.

'Rat

[Rebel]

Engineers with a business degree are golden! ...

There will always be a need for Engineers somewhere on this planet. They will just have to be willing to live in other parts of the world. The Earth is shrinking.

[Desertrat]

"There will always be a need for Engineers somewhere on this planet. They will just have to be willing to live in other parts of the world. The Earth is shrinking."

:) Rebel, engineers have been working all over the world for a long time. Permanent residency in the work-country isn't a necessity. Further, nowadays, office engineers can be anywhere the Internet reaches--which is darned near everywhere.

To interject a purely personal opinion: Bureaucrats, whether public or private sector, don't really like tele-commuting. The underlings are harder to control.

'Rat

[Hoef]

There will always be a need for Engineers somewhere on this planet. They will just have to be willing to live in other parts of the world. The Earth is shrinking.

And they should have Ivy League business degrees ;)

[Thomas Veil]

On the subject of job recovery....

Why doesn't the Labor Department, in its statistics, tell us how many jobs were created above a certain salary level, say $40,000/yr., and how many were below that? That'd be better than just saying, "The economy created x,000 jobs last month."

Well, to answer my own question, I suppose it's because everyone knows we're only creating "junk jobs", not careers.

[Neserk]

Well, to answer my own question, I suppose it's because everyone knows we're only creating "junk jobs", not careers.


Doing the sensible thing would mean admitting that Bush is the worst president in the history of this country!

Seriously, I think your "request" is incredibly reasonable.

[IJ Reilly]

The BLS does release income statistics.

http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/income_wealth/002484.html

If you search around, you can find figures broken down by wage categories but these surveys are done only annually I believe.

[Leo Hubbard]

On the subject of job recovery....

Why doesn't the Labor Department, in its statistics, tell us how many jobs were created above a certain salary level, say $40,000/yr., and how many were below that? That'd be better than just saying, "The economy created x,000 jobs last month."

Well, to answer my own question, I suppose it's because everyone knows we're only creating "junk jobs", not careers.
Jobs created only for those who make over 40k a year doesn't help the bottom level classes who don't have the skills to do those jobs. You can't create the jobs without having the talent to fill them. Ditch Diggers don't have the right skill set to design bridges.

[Desertrat]

Neserk, I hate to tell you, but Dubya didn't start either of these last two hurricanes. Really, he didn't.

Does anybody know how they calculate "jobs created"? Is it at all tied to changes in claims for unemployment? Or is it more tied to changes in reporting in the paperwork stuff like workers' comp and the withholdings?

'Rat

[zimv20]

Does anybody know how they calculate "jobs created"? Is it at all tied to changes in claims for unemployment? Or is it more tied to changes in reporting in the paperwork stuff like workers' comp and the withholdings?

both, actually. the former is the unemployment rate, the latter is (iirc) the household rate. since the former doesn't count people who've stopped looking, it's lower.

[Rebel]

Neserk, Does anybody know how they calculate "jobs created"? 'Rat

The calculation goes something like this - Zero + Zero x Zero % Zero = Diddly Squat..........