Mackerras Pendulum predicts Kerry win

[sorryiwasdreami]

Malcolm Mackerras (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malcolm_Mackerras), an academic psephologist (http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=psephologist+) and commentator on Australian and American politics, predicts a Democratic win for the U.S. 2004 presidential election.

http://en.wikipedia.org/upload/1/11/Mackerras_2004_US_Election.png

[yg17]

i hope this guy is right. we're doomed if dubya gets another 4 years.

[masterhiggins]

Apparently Malcolm hasn't seen these polls.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

http://gallup.com/election2004/

Looks like it's time to back your bags. :)

[takao]

Apparently Malcolm hasn't seen these polls.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

http://gallup.com/election2004/

Looks like it's time to back your bags. :)

or time for buying a lot of alcohol

[Lyle]

Malcolm Mackerras (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malcolm_Mackerras), an academic psephologist (http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=psephologist+) and commentator on Australian and American politics, predicts a Democratic win for the U.S. 2004 presidential election.The Wikipedia article that you linked to doesn't mention anything about his track record in predicting the outcomes of previous U.S. elections. Is there some reason why this particular study was of interest to you (other than the fact that it has your guy winning)?

[wwworry]

these predictions are stupid and do none of us voters any good. I remember saying the same thing in the "Bush wins in a landside 2004" thread 2 years ago. No one could have predicted how ineptly he would have handled post war Iraq. and so here we are in a tight race. let's all vote.

[yg17]

Apparently Malcolm hasn't seen these polls.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

http://gallup.com/election2004/

Looks like it's time to back your bags. :)


First of all, the 2000 presidental election proved that you can become president even if a majority of the population wants your opponent to win. Thus, those numbers don't mean much.

Second, poll numbers change quickly. Bush has the lead this week, but who knows next week, Kerry might be kicking his ass.

[masterhiggins]

First of all, the 2000 presidental election proved that you can become president even if a majority of the population wants your opponent to win. Thus, those numbers don't mean much.


well, in case you didn't notice, it listed predicted ELECTORAL VOTES.

[Thomas Veil]

The polls are all over the place. Observe. (http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/09/17/presidential.polls/index.html)

[Durandal7]

or time for buying a lot of alcohol

It's always that time.