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MacBytes
Oct 14, 2004, 12:42 PM
Category: Apple Services
Link: iTunes tops 150 million (http://www.macbytes.com/link.php?sid=20041014134223)
Posted on MacBytes.com (http://www.macbytes.com)

Approved by Mudbug

bdkennedy1
Oct 14, 2004, 12:49 PM
I wish they'd quit with the milestones. It seems every 10, 20 and 50 million is a milestone to them. The next milestone should have been 250 million, then 500 million... etc.

Doctor Q
Oct 14, 2004, 12:50 PM
For how many points do we now know the number of tunes sold as of a given date? It would be nice to make a graph to see how the store sales have grown over time.

BruinJohn
Oct 14, 2004, 12:50 PM
Holy Smokes!! I'm so glad that Apple is having such a success with the music side of their company. Now I hope they use the momentum of iTunes, iPod, and iMac to cash in on getting more switchers. I think this holiday season will be an snowing with iPods and iMacs!

chuckzee
Oct 14, 2004, 12:50 PM
What? no prizes for Beth Santisteven?

katanna
Oct 14, 2004, 12:51 PM
Does anyone know if any other service has gotten close to this??
150 M... that is a lot!

Matthew

the_mole1314
Oct 14, 2004, 12:52 PM
I wish they'd quit with the milestones. It seems every 10, 20 and 50 million is a milestone to them. The next milestone should have been 250 million, then 500 million... etc.

Since MS release their store, Napster is bragging about their intergration into Windows Media Center 2005, and all those new players aiming at the ipod, I think this is good. Apple needs to show they are STILL the leader and they show no signs of slowing down.

Chaszmyr
Oct 14, 2004, 12:53 PM
Does anyone know if any other service has gotten close to this??

They have not.

This is good news. I hope it means AAPL won't fall after today.

PlaceofDis
Oct 14, 2004, 12:58 PM
apple needs to show these milestones, it shows that they are ahead of everyone else still, by quite a bit too i would guess. Now if they werent the top store it would be pointless to have these types of announcements

keep up the good work Apple and keep selling those iPods!! bring out that 60giger!!!

MrMoto
Oct 14, 2004, 12:58 PM
"milestones" are almost completely irrelevant.

I'd rather hear something about the developement of "songs per day"

gekko513
Oct 14, 2004, 01:06 PM
When did they reach 100 million? Wasn't that in the beginning of July?

If so, then they are selling at a rate of 0.5 million per day, or 180 million per year.

nagromme
Oct 14, 2004, 01:07 PM
It's just a press release... is that "going too far" ;)

Also... a pan-EU store--not stores. Nice.

swissmann
Oct 14, 2004, 01:10 PM
Who is in number 2 spot and what are their numbers I wonder?

FosterKanig
Oct 14, 2004, 01:13 PM
I wish they'd quit with the milestones. It seems every 10, 20 and 50 million is a milestone to them. The next milestone should have been 250 million, then 500 million... etc.

I agree. Free advertising sucks.

sinisterdesign
Oct 14, 2004, 01:17 PM
I agree. Free advertising sucks.

yeah, no kidding. how dare Apple get more good press.

for god's sake, there was a RUMOR on the front page of CNN's tech section. i think the fact that iTMS is blowing away competitors is a decent story.

johnnyjibbs
Oct 14, 2004, 01:21 PM
Good work Apple. I contributed about 30 songs of that. :D

azdude
Oct 14, 2004, 01:24 PM
For how many points do we now know the number of tunes sold as of a given date? It would be nice to make a graph to see how the store sales have grown over time.

Doctor Q, you sure know how to keep a Mac geek busy for 5 minutes:

http://www.jerrod.us/itmssales.jpg

johnnyjibbs
Oct 14, 2004, 01:29 PM
"milestones" are almost completely irrelevant.

I'd rather hear something about the developement of "songs per day"
Take a look at that graph azdude has just made - it shows that the rate of songs sold per given time interval is continuing to increase and increase exponentially!

Dunepilot
Oct 14, 2004, 01:31 PM
Doctor Q, you sure know how to keep a Mac geek busy for 5 minutes:


Thanks for that graph Azdude, the acceleration really is fantastic news.

-Has anyone else in London noticed that the free Metro newspaper has reduced its reporting of Mac/iPod/iTMS-related announcements since it launched its own (crummy-looking, Mac-incompatible) download service?

RHutch
Oct 14, 2004, 01:38 PM
When did they reach 100 million? Wasn't that in the beginning of July?

If so, then they are selling at a rate of 0.5 million per day, or 180 million per year.

They reached 100 million on July 12. They reached 150 million on October 14. That's 94 or 95 days, depending on what time each day the milestone was reached.

(50 million songs / 95 days) * 365 days = 192,105,263 songs per year

You can't round 526,000 to 500,000 and expect to get a very accurate result for a year.

Also, the calculations are irrelevant. The quote was that people are now purchasing 4 million per week. You can't assume constant purchasing from week to week; obviously the purchase rate has increased.

iMeowbot
Oct 14, 2004, 01:41 PM
A slightly different view:
(edit: revised with more points)
http://homepage.mac.com/imeowbot/mr/itmsdaily2.png

Yes, both peaks are real, it must be spring fever in the northern hemisphere that gets people away from their computers :)

The numbers:
date,downloads
4/28/03,0
5/5/03,1000000
5/14/03,2000000
6/23/03,5000000
9/8/03,10000000
10/16/03,13000000
11/6/03,17000000
12/15/03,25000000
3/15/04,50000000
4/28/04,70000000
7/12/04,100000000
10/14/04,150000000

jj2003
Oct 14, 2004, 01:43 PM
Doctor Q, you sure know how to keep a Mac geek busy for 5 minutes:


That graph sure looks great, would you mind sharing with us the name of the program that was used to create it?

Iroganai
Oct 14, 2004, 01:46 PM
Can you show us the graph in the logarithmic scale, if you have time ?
I'd like to know how far it is exponential... or just is it t^2 or t^3 ?

Too geeky question, may be.

azdude
Oct 14, 2004, 01:46 PM
That graph sure looks great, would you mind sharing with us the name of the program that was used to create it?

Just Excel 2004... nothing special.

mchoii
Oct 14, 2004, 01:48 PM
And I sold out at $28, what a grear product, maybe should get back in?

jj2003
Oct 14, 2004, 01:49 PM
Just Excel 2004... nothing special.

ok, maybe it's time for me to upgrade from Office 98 :)

granex
Oct 14, 2004, 01:49 PM
Doctor Q, you sure know how to keep a Mac geek busy for 5 minutes:


Great graph. Looks like it is falling off of an exponential curve at this point, but still moving up fast. I'd say that the rate of increase since last March is moving toward linear, with a slope of roughly 15 million per month (which is not too far off the 4 million/week figure).

That suggests another doubling in 10 months, as opposed to a few months on an exponential growth path. Given what the iPods are doing, I bet that they beat that 10 months by a fair bit.

-granex

Iroganai
Oct 14, 2004, 01:50 PM
There's another graph in the thread while I was posting!
iMeowbot's graph shows the growth is almost quadratic.

Mmm... it should be exponential if everyone who bought at iTMS
convinces two people also to by at iTMS :)

azdude
Oct 14, 2004, 01:51 PM
Can you show us the graph in the logarithmic scale, if you have time ?
I'd like to know how far it is exponential... or just is it t^2 or t^3 ?

Too geeky question, may be.

Nothing's too geeky for an engineer, but I have to run to class.

wdlove
Oct 14, 2004, 01:52 PM
For how many points do we now know the number of tunes sold as of a given date? It would be nice to make a graph to see how the store sales have grown over time.

Doctor Q, I nominate you to make us a graph. :D

This is good news for Apple, it's good to make the announcements. Publicity only helps to keep the name front and center.

Lancetx
Oct 14, 2004, 01:55 PM
Wow. 50 Million sold in just the last 3 months. That is incredible and major kudos to Steve and the crew at Apple. And just to think that the analysts were ripping Apple about not reaching the 100 Million goal by the end of April. Who looks like the fools now? :p

iMeowbot
Oct 14, 2004, 01:58 PM
Mmm... it should be exponential if everyone who bought at iTMS convinces two people also to by at iTMS :)
I thought that only worked with shampoo.

dejo
Oct 14, 2004, 02:00 PM
A slightly different view:
http://homepage.mac.com/imeowbot/mr/itmsdaily.gif

What's with that spike at the beginning? Sticky fingers?

azdude
Oct 14, 2004, 02:01 PM
What's with that spike at the beginning? Sticky fingers?

Doubt it... it makes sense that the "daily downloads" would be higher for the launch week than after the hubbub settles down.

iMeowbot
Oct 14, 2004, 02:08 PM
What's with that spike at the beginning? Sticky fingers?
That initial spike was real, a million downloads in the first week. It didn't really start to climb until the holidays.

asif786
Oct 14, 2004, 02:13 PM
I cant wait till iTMS reaches 1 Billion downloads! It's gonna be so cool!

I reckon it's gonna be mid-2006 when that happens. Maybe earlier if the beatles catalogue comes into iTMS - I know tonnes of people that would love to get digital versions of the whole beatles catalogue.

Go on Apple! 1,000,000,000 downloads!

edit: i said mid-2005 by accident, meant mid-2006 - typo.

Ja Di ksw
Oct 14, 2004, 02:45 PM
I wonder what they would give out for the 1 billion downloads prize. Maybe a pb G5 :D. Ok, now I have to go shoot myself in the foot for mentioning the pb G5

agentbristow
Oct 14, 2004, 02:52 PM
Did anyone else notice it said that the purchaser was from "Canada"? I thought the iTMS wasn't available in Canada yet!?!

dejo
Oct 14, 2004, 03:04 PM
Did anyone else notice it said that the purchaser was from "Canada"? I thought the iTMS wasn't available in Canada yet!?!

It didn't say Canada. It said Colorado. "Beth Santisteven from Ignacio, Colorado."

coolfactor
Oct 14, 2004, 03:11 PM
It's just a press release... is that "going too far" ;)

Also... a pan-EU store--not stores. Nice.

"pan-EU" = "across or throughout EU"

so... "pan-UE stores" = "stores across or throughout EU"

gekko513
Oct 14, 2004, 03:32 PM
They reached 100 million on July 12. They reached 150 million on October 14. That's 94 or 95 days, depending on what time each day the milestone was reached.

(50 million songs / 95 days) * 365 days = 192,105,263 songs per year

You can't round 526,000 to 500,000 and expect to get a very accurate result for a year.

Also, the calculations are irrelevant. The quote was that people are now purchasing 4 million per week. You can't assume constant purchasing from week to week; obviously the purchase rate has increased.
Who said I expected an accurate result :p I didn't even know the exact date for 100 million. I just calculated with 100 days.

I see others are taking a bit more scientific approach to this. Nice graphs, you guys :)

scem0
Oct 14, 2004, 03:35 PM
I'm so happy for my favorite company and for my favorite artist, Apple and Lauryn Hill!

Ex-Factor is a great Lauryn Hill song! Highly recommended. Couldn't have choosen a better 150,000,000'th song. (Okay, I like 'I find it hard to say' by Lauryn Hill better, but Ex Factor is still a great song).

scem0

ASP272
Oct 14, 2004, 03:52 PM
Apple needs to do another commercial to capitalize on this milestone. This will further push them ahead of all the lousy competition out there.

scem0
Oct 14, 2004, 03:54 PM
I agree.

They should do one featuring Lauryn Hill :D

I think I would fall over in happiness. :p

scem0

Savage Henry
Oct 14, 2004, 04:01 PM
i think the fact that iTMS is blowing away competitors is a decent story.

Damn right ... It's cocking the snoot to the wannabe competitors who talk the talk but ...welll, you know... ;)

Archaeopteryx
Oct 14, 2004, 04:03 PM
hehe now Beth Santisteven will always be remembered for her horrible music taste.. kekeke

Poff
Oct 14, 2004, 04:06 PM
Does this mean the iTMS will launch in Norway before MSN Music launches their service at the end of the month? :eek: I sure hope so! :D

jholzner
Oct 14, 2004, 04:09 PM
Wow. 50 Million sold in just the last 3 months. That is incredible and major kudos to Steve and the crew at Apple. And just to think that the analysts were ripping Apple about not reaching the 100 Million goal by the end of April. Who looks like the fools now? :p

At this rate they will hit 200,000,000 by the end of the year! So, they didn't hit 100,000,000 in a year but they hit the 200,000,000 in under two! Nice.

scem0
Oct 14, 2004, 04:21 PM
hehe now Beth Santisteven will always be remembered for her horrible music taste.. kekeke

have you even heard any Lauryn Hill?

scem0

szark
Oct 14, 2004, 04:30 PM
Bandwidth calculations:

~ 526,000 songs/day
~ 4 minutes/song
60 seconds/minute
128,000 bits/second (128kbps AAC)
0.125 Bytes/bit (8 bits in a byte)

= 2.01984 TB/day

(and that's not even counting the free song previews!)

deral
Oct 14, 2004, 04:37 PM
i wunder wut beth got.

AliensAreFuzzy
Oct 14, 2004, 04:47 PM
Can you show us the graph in the logarithmic scale, if you have time ?
I'd like to know how far it is exponential... or just is it t^2 or t^3 ?

Too geeky question, may be.
Well, I took the time to figure out the quadratic equation that fits that data...
It's approximately 540X^2. That's if you have it be songs/days graphically.

Edit: Actually, looking again, It's almost (X+20)^3

backspinner
Oct 14, 2004, 04:52 PM
150 million? So my live counter which is still running on http://itunescount.tijdweb.nl is not far off!

AliensAreFuzzy
Oct 14, 2004, 04:58 PM
Bandwidth calculations:

~ 526,000 songs/day
~ 4 minutes/song
60 seconds/minute
128,000 bits/second (128kbps AAC)
0.125 Bytes/bit (8 bits in a byte)

= 2.01984 TB/day

(and that's not even counting the free song previews!)

Wow, based on that, I'm getting that they have to have at least 200Mb/sec (rounded) for all of their servers. (again not counting previews.)

ijimk
Oct 14, 2004, 05:19 PM
Well i just started buying music off of itunes music store and love it, but how i do miss the pepsi itunes give away. Bring back Pepsi bottle cap give away :D

GO ITUNES!

JGowan
Oct 14, 2004, 05:31 PM
I wish they'd quit with the milestones. It seems every 10, 20 and 50 million is a milestone to them. The next milestone should have been 250 million, then 500 million... etc.You DON'T GET it! They JUST passed 100M just 3 months ago. So to sell 50M in just 3 months is phenominal + it puts out the message to the Microsofts and the RealNetworks that recently launched their own stores "Hey, you've got a lot of catching up to do."

Poff
Oct 14, 2004, 05:38 PM
Wow, based on that, I'm getting that they have to have at least 200Mb/sec (rounded) for all of their servers. (again not counting previews.)

That's just crazy. Especially when considering the whole world can listen to previews.. I do it all the time if I hear about a new song.

Knox
Oct 14, 2004, 07:15 PM
Wow, based on that, I'm getting that they have to have at least 200Mb/sec (rounded) for all of their servers. (again not counting previews.)

The funny thing is, that 2TB/day sounds a huge amount to us, but to Akamai (who I believe actually host the audio files) that's just a drop in the ocean - overall Akamai serves roughly 25Gbit/sec on average, or 263TB/day.

jholzner
Oct 14, 2004, 07:55 PM
Well i just started buying music off of itunes music store and love it, but how i do miss the pepsi itunes give away. Bring back Pepsi bottle cap give away :D

GO ITUNES!

I can't remember where I read it but they are going to bring that back again next year. Again, with a commercial at the super bowl but this time the commercial will be done by Apple and not Pepsi (thank God). Hopefully Pepsi can get their distribution methods working correctly so people can actually get their hands on the caps BEFORE the promo is over.

Edit
Found the link...take a look
http://www.appleinsider.com/article.php?id=569

bbarnhart
Oct 14, 2004, 10:09 PM
Bandwidth calculations:

~ 526,000 songs/day
~ 4 minutes/song
60 seconds/minute
128,000 bits/second (128kbps AAC)
0.125 Bytes/bit (8 bits in a byte)

= 2.01984 TB/day

(and that's not even counting the free song previews!)

They must be using better hardware for the ITMS than they do for .Mac

Zaty
Oct 15, 2004, 01:23 AM
Does this mean the iTMS will launch in Norway before MSN Music launches their service at the end of the month? :eek: I sure hope so! :D

The question remains if this pan-EU store is only available to customers in EU member states or if it will available to customers in non-EU members states such as Norway and Switzerland as well. It would make sense from financial perspective b/c Apple would probably sell more songs in those two countries than in certain EU member states (especially in the East).

Edit: In the Swiss German press release they use the expression pan-European store. I still hope iTMS will be available in Switzerland as well. :)

Diatribe
Oct 15, 2004, 02:25 AM
Pretty crazy. They are selling at a rate of about 200 million songs a year off of 4 stores and 3 of them are brand new.
Just to put into perspective, those 4 countries equal a population of close to 500 million people. If they'd get a pan European store AND the Japanese store going this number doubles, which, using simple logic, means doubling the songs dl/year rate. That makes 400 million songs a year. Now this would be crazy and it still does not include big markets like china, etc.

~Shard~
Oct 15, 2004, 11:39 AM
Great news – it seems like this happened relatively fast though compared to the 100 millionth song – that seems just like yesterday in some respects! iTMS is showing no signs of slowing down – those other online music stores might as well pack it in... ;) :cool:

~Shard~
Oct 15, 2004, 11:41 AM
I wish they'd quit with the milestones. It seems every 10, 20 and 50 million is a milestone to them. The next milestone should have been 250 million, then 500 million... etc.

Yes, but Apple themselves didn't make a huge deal out of it, it's not like it was on their website's front page like the events surrounding the 100 millionth download. I think it's good for Apple to release stats like this and show everyone just how popular the service is and how fast it's growing.

~Shard~
Oct 15, 2004, 11:42 AM
And I’m still waiting for one of these “milestone” downloads to be something obscure and possibly offensive – I’d like to see how Apple would handle it if they had to publish something to the effect of, “And the 200 millionth song downloaded was 'NIN - @#$% You Like an Animal', downloaded by Arn at 3:56 AM!” :cool:


P.S. Please don't ban me.

rogo
Oct 18, 2004, 03:03 AM
Well, I built a model at the 100,000,000 milestone and it predicted the 150 millionth song sale precisely to the day.

In fact, the night before the release, I told a friend I was surprised to hear nothing at quarterly conference call about song sales and I expected a release the next day. It happened and honestly I was surprised.

So, for what it's worth:

December 23 --> 200 millionth song sold

Sooner and the rate of sales growth would actually be increasing, later and it would be decreasing. Again, those are rates of growth.

The billionth song is currently due to be sold in the final days of 2006.

Mark

~Shard~
Oct 18, 2004, 07:28 AM
Well, I built a model at the 100,000,000 milestone and it predicted the 150 millionth song sale precisely to the day.

In fact, the night before the release, I told a friend I was surprised to hear nothing at quarterly conference call about song sales and I expected a release the next day. It happened and honestly I was surprised.

So, for what it's worth:

December 23 --> 200 millionth song sold

Sooner and the rate of sales growth would actually be increasing, later and it would be decreasing. Again, those are rates of growth.

The billionth song is currently due to be sold in the final days of 2006.

Mark

Are you taking into account the fact that iTMS will be available in more and more countries as time moves on, thereby making more music accessible to more people worldwide? That would no doubt accelerate your growth right there....

cxny
Oct 18, 2004, 02:51 PM
Are you taking into account the fact that iTMS will be available in more and more countries as time moves on, thereby making more music accessible to more people worldwide? That would no doubt accelerate your growth right there....

I think what we have here is the "Moore's Law" of music downloads. Let's see if Job's Law holds up for 40 years as well! Of course that may entail the entire planet listening to 10 terrabyte iPods each with several billion dollars worth of ITMS dowloads. Could be a good time to buy AAPL!

rogo
Oct 21, 2004, 12:06 AM
Are you taking into account the fact that iTMS will be available in more and more countries as time moves on, thereby making more music accessible to more people worldwide? That would no doubt accelerate your growth right there....

Believe it or not, I don't actually think it matters -- too much. The current base of "places where iTunes is available vs. places it isn't" to me shows only one real significant catalyst for change: Japan.

I do think the opening of iTMS Japan will push the curve inward (as in hit the higher numbers sooner), but I can't include it in my model and I doubt it would affect the 200 million number.

It might make 1 billion come sooner, but will see. Like all these kinds of forecasts, I can recalibrate when actual data comes in and will do so.

Right now, look to Dec. 23. If 200 million comes sooner, I'll adjust upward... If later, I'll adjust downward. The significance of the former would be generally minor -- good, but minor. If the latter occurs, that's very bad -- it means that adoption of legal downloads is slowing way too soon.

Mark

~Shard~
Oct 21, 2004, 10:13 PM
Believe it or not, I don't actually think it matters -- too much. The current base of "places where iTunes is available vs. places it isn't" to me shows only one real significant catalyst for change: Japan.

I do think the opening of iTMS Japan will push the curve inward (as in hit the higher numbers sooner), but I can't include it in my model and I doubt it would affect the 200 million number.

It might make 1 billion come sooner, but will see. Like all these kinds of forecasts, I can recalibrate when actual data comes in and will do so.

Right now, look to Dec. 23. If 200 million comes sooner, I'll adjust upward... If later, I'll adjust downward. The significance of the former would be generally minor -- good, but minor. If the latter occurs, that's very bad -- it means that adoption of legal downloads is slowing way too soon.

Mark


Sounds good, and makes sense to me. I'll look forward to seeing your results when the time comes...