View Full Version : Apple 'too reliant' on unknown iPod market
Oct 18, 2004, 02:31 PM
Link: Apple \'too reliant\' on unknown iPod market (http://www.macbytes.com/link.php?sid=20041018143120)
Posted on MacBytes.com (http://www.macbytes.com)
Approved by Mudbug
Oct 18, 2004, 03:38 PM
what a stupid article
i agree with it in respect to, a given company should NEVER be relient on a given product they sell / create. doing this makes for a big fall if it fails or the competition gets to strong
and the whole comment about "take the ipod away and your left with 3.3mil worth of sales" or how ever it went... take windows away from microsoft and whats left ? take crm away from peoplesoft and whats left ?
if you have a great product, ride it as long as you can, but continue to inovate so when the ride is over, u have something to new to continue
the ipod isnt exactly a nich market. its slightly expensive, but people listen to music almost everywhere / anytime. while cooking, cleaning, exercising, working, eating, sex
mind you, head phones dont fit into all thows situations, but a head phone to dual rca adaptor isnt exactly hard to come by now adays
Oct 18, 2004, 05:00 PM
But despite its selling more than 2 million iPods this quarter, industry experts are concerned that Apple is too on selling iPods to an unknown market.
And personal computers were a known market back in 1976? :rolleyes:
Oct 18, 2004, 05:42 PM
While it's true that Apple would be better off selling fewer iPods :rolleyes: , I'm surprised it's taken this long for the obligatory negative spin on Apple's success to roll out.
When somebody shows me how this new music profit has caused Apple to respond by pulling resources away from Mac projects, then I'll worry.
Oct 18, 2004, 08:04 PM
Apologies in advance for a long post ...
My view is that the "PC" market (i.e. the 3.3% thing) is a distraction from the real story.
The real story - in my view - is the difference between the "traditional" mobile music players (a la Walkman, radio players) that provide limited choice (single tape/cd, or a choice of stations that might or might not play what you want - but typically all in a single genre), and the personization that the iPod has popularised.
What I found was that by loading up my iPod with heaps of different stuff then playing on "shuffle" my enthusiasm for all types of music increased. Sequential (CD players) and radio staions (typically single genre) don't do that for me - I have never bought one, even though they were "cool" when I was young and stupid (i.e <30)
For me to buy something other than an iPod now would require an innovation (not video ...) that I can not now imagine. Apple seems to have it (nearly - but not quite) right.
In the article the analyst(s) are concentrating on what has happened in the past, then trying to forecast based on that past. My view - along with many commentators and threads on MacBytes and MacRumors - is that the real story is somewhere else - the musical "market of one" where each individual will carry - and are carrying on iPods and similar - libraries ("playlists") of whatever he or she chooses. This is not what old gen portable music players offered (beyong awkward mixing to cassette tape). The analysts are confusing the two.
I believe that there is a discontinuity occurring (viz Hamel & Prahalad) that accounting-driven analysts may not detect. THAT is what I find disturbing in the article - that there are few signs that analysts recognise that a discontinuity may be happening ...
Apologies for the lengthy drivel. I have been around long enough to recognise fundamental change; and I believe that the Apple - with the iPod - (while not new technology) brought together the right elements in the right way to start a such a change. If other hardware and software manufacturers can do as well as Apple, or better .. then we will all be better off. (But I have my suspicions that in the short term they won't ..)
(Phew ... out of breath ...)
Oct 18, 2004, 08:15 PM
this was one of those articles that annoyed the heck out of me within two sentences. first and foremost it's not an unknown market, as i quote "consumers bought more than 23 million portable headset audio devices in 2003". so where the [bleep] does the unknown come into this?!
part two that really has nothing to do with anything, but apple bashing, "Take the iPod business away from Apple, and what's left? A company that sold 3.3 million computers in its fiscal 2004. That's less than 2 per cent of the 176.5 million computers that market research firm IDC forecasts will be sold this calendar year". hey [bleep]head, this is an article about ipods and not computer sales. i guess you could argue that ipod is apple based and that may make some sort of difference in sales, but i don't see how, when it runs on windows as well... what bull[bleep]!
Oct 18, 2004, 08:30 PM
I think Apple is also too reliant on laptop sales, Toyota too reliant on Camry sales and baseball too reliant on homerun hitters, they never know when there won't be any to bolster ticket sales.
Oct 18, 2004, 08:31 PM
Who is to say that the analyst for Bear Stearns is good or not? He might have recommended Tyco and Enron and a few other "winners". The company has given more conservative advice than most I've seen. Would their customers actually buy Apple stock? I don't think so, so other than a little recognition in the news, his words go nowhere.